Once upon a time, at the age of 24, I was a student at St. John's Medical College in Bangalore. I was a guest student during one month of a public health course. And that changed my mindset forever. The course was good, but it was not the course content in itself that changed the mindset. It was the brutal realization, the first morning, that the Indian students were better than me.
Jednom davno, kada sam imao 24 godine, bio sam student medicinskog fakulteta "St. John" u Bangaloru. Bio sam gostujući student tokom jednomesečnog seminara o javnom zdravstvu. To iskustvo je zauvek promenilo način na koji posmatram svet. Seminar je bio dobar, ali nije njegov sadržaj sam po sebi ono što je uticalo na moj način razmišljanja. U pitanju je bila brutalna istina koju sam shvatio prvog jutra - indijski studenti su bili bolji od mene.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
You see, I was a study nerd. I loved statistics from a young age. And I studied very much in Sweden. I used to be in the upper quarter of all courses I attended. But in St. John's, I was in the lower quarter. And the fact was that Indian students studied harder than we did in Sweden. They read the textbook twice, or three times or four times. In Sweden we read it once and then we went partying.
Vidite, ja sam bio zaluđenik za učenje. Od malena sam obožavao statistiku. I marljivo sam učio u Švedskoj. Na svim kursevima koje sam pohađao sam bio jedan od četvrtine najboljih, ali u St. John-u sam bio u četvrtini najlošijih studenata. Činjenica je bila da su indijski studenti marljivije učili od nas u Švedskoj. Oni bi pročitali udžbenik dva puta, ili tri ili čak četiri puta. U Švedskoj bismo ga pročitali jedanput, a zatim otišli da se zabavljamo.
(Laugher)
(Smeh)
And that, to me, that personal experience was the first time in my life that the mindset I grew up with was changed. And I realized that perhaps the Western world will not continue to dominate the world forever. And I think many of you have the same sort of personal experience. It's that realization of someone you meet that really made you change your ideas about the world. It's not the statistics, although I tried to make it funny.
I to je, meni, to lično iskustvo, bio prvi put u mom životu da je nešto promenilo način razmišljanja sa kojim sam odrastao. I shvatio sam da možda Zapadni svet neće zauvek dominirati svetom. Mislim da mnogi od vas imaju sličnu vrstu ličnog iskustva. To je ona spoznaja da je neko koga ste upoznali uticao na vas da promenite svoje predstave o svetu. Nije u pitanju sama statistika,
And I will now, here, onstage, try to predict when that will happen -- that Asia will regain its dominant position as the leading part of the world, as it used to be, over thousands of years. And I will do that by trying to predict precisely at what year the average income per person in India, in China, will reach that of the West. And I don't mean the whole economy, because to grow an economy of India to the size of U.K. -- that's a piece of cake, with one billion people. But I want to see when will the average pay, the money for each person, per month, in India and China, when will that have reached that of U.K. and the United States?
iako pokušavam da je prikažem na zabavan način. A sada ću, ovde, na sceni, pokušati da predvidim kada će se to dogoditi - kada će Azija ponovo zauzeti svoju nadmoćnu poziciju kao vodeći deo sveta, što i jeste bila hiljadama godina. Uradiću to pokušavajući da predvidim tačno koje godine će prosečan dohodak po stanovniku u Indiji, Kini, dostići onaj na Zapadu. Ne mislim na celu ekonomiju, budući da rast indijske ekonomije do nivoa one Velike Britanije nije nikakav problem kada imate milijardu stanovnika. Zapravo, želim da uočim kada će prosečna mesečna plata, novčano primanje svake osobe, u Indiji i Kini, kada će se izjednačiti sa onima u Velikoj Britaniji i SAD-u?
But I will start with a historical background. And you can see my map if I get it up here. You know? I will start at 1858. 1858 was a year of great technological advancement in the West. That was the year when Queen Victoria was able, for the first time, to communicate with President Buchanan, through the Transatlantic Telegraphic Cable. And they were the first to "Twitter" transatlantically. (Laughter) (Applause) And I've been able, through this wonderful Google and Internet, to find the text of the telegram sent back from President Buchanan to Queen Victoria. And it ends like this: "This telegraph is a fantastic instrument to diffuse religion, civilization, liberty and law throughout the world."
Ali počeću istorijskom pozadinom. Možete da vidite mapu kada je postavim gore, zar ne? Počeću od 1858. 1858. je bila godina velikog tehnološkog napretka na Zapadu. To je godina u kojoj je kraljica Viktorija po prvi put bila u mogućnosti da komunicira sa predsednikom Bjukenanom putem transatlantskog telegrafskog kabla. Oni su koristili prvi transatlantski Tviter. (Smeh) (Aplauz) Koristeći ovaj izvanredan Google i internet pronašao sam tekst telegrama poslatog od predsednika Bjukenana kraljici Viktoriji. Završava se sledećim rečima: "Ovaj telegraf je fantastičan instrument za širenje religije, civilizacije, slobode i zakona širom sveta."
Those are nice words. But I got sort of curious of what he meant with liberty, and liberty for whom. And we will think about that when we look at the wider picture of the world in 1858. Because 1858 was also watershed year in the history of Asia. 1858 was the year when the courageous uprising against the foreign occupation of India was defeated by the British forces. And India was up to 89 years more of foreign domination.
To su lepe reči. Ali zainteresovalo me je šta je mislio pod "slobodom" i kome je bila namenjena ta sloboda. Razmislimo o tome dok posmatramo širu sliku sveta iz 1858. godine budući da je 1858. takođe bila prekretnica u istoriji Azije. 1858. je bila godina u kojoj je smeli ustanak protiv strane okupacije u Indiji ugušila britanska vojska. Nakon toga Indija je bila pod stranom vlašću još 89 godina.
1858 in China was the victory in the Opium War by the British forces. And that meant that foreigners, as it said in the treaty, were allowed to trade freely in China. It meant paying with opium for Chinese goods.
1858. u Kini je godina pobede britanske vojske u Opijumskom ratu. To je značilo da stranci, kako je navedeno u sporazumu, mogu slobodno da trguju u Kini i da opijumom plaćaju kinesku robu.
And 1858 in Japan was the year when Japan had to sign the Harris Treaty and accept trade on favorable condition for the U.S. And they were threatened by those black ships there, that had been in Tokyo harbor over the last year. But, Japan, in contrast to India and China, maintained its national sovereignty.
Japan je 1858. godine primoran da potpiše Harisov sporazum i da prihvati trgovinu pod povoljnim uslovima za SAD. Ugrožavali su ih ti crni brodovi koji su bili usidreni u tokijskoj luci tokom prethodne godine. Za razliku od Indije i Kine, Japan je zadržao svoj nacionalni suverenitet.
And let's see how much difference that can make. And I will do that by bringing these bubbles back to a Gapminder graph here, where you can see each bubble is a country. The size of the bubble here is the population. On this axis, as I used to have income per person in comparable dollar. And on that axis I have life expectancy, the health of people. And I also bring an innovation here. I have transformed the laser beam into an ecological, recyclable version here, in green India.
Pogledajmo koliko to može značiti. Uradiću to pokazujući balončiće ovde na "Gapminder" grafu. gde svaki balončić predstavlja jednu zemlju. Veličina balončića u ovom slučaju je brojnost populacije. Na ovoj osi je dohodak po stanovniku izražen u uporedivim dolarima, a na ovoj osi je očekivano trajanje života, mera zdravlja populacije. Takođe, uvodim inovaciju. U zelenoj Indiji sam pretvorio laserski zrak u ekološku verziju koja se može reciklirati.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)
And we will see, you know. Look here, 1858, India was here, China was here, Japan was there, United States and United Kingdom was richer over there. And I will start the world like this. India was not always like this level. Actually if we go back into the historical record, there was a time hundreds of years ago when the income per person in India and China was even above that of Europe. But 1850 had already been many, many years of foreign domination, and India had been de-industrialized. And you can see that the countries who were growing their economy was United States and United Kingdom. And they were also, by the end of the century, getting healthy, and Japan was starting to catch up. India was trying down here. Can you see how it starts to move there? But really, really natural sovereignty was good for Japan. And Japan is trying to move up there.
I sad ćemo videti. Pogledajte: 1858. Indija je ovde, Kina ovde, Japan tamo, a SAD i Velika Britanija su kao bogatije bile tamo. Pokrenuću svet. Indija nije uvek bila na ovom nivou. Zapravo, ako bismo pogledali u istorijske zapise postojalo je vreme pre nekoliko stotina godina kada su prihodi po stanovniku u Indiji i Kini bili viši čak i od onih u Evropi. Ali do 1850. već mnogo, mnogo godina traje strana dominacija i Indija je deindustrijalizovana. Možete uočiti da zemlje čija ekonomija raste jesu SAD i Velika Britanija. Do kraja veka one su, takođe, postajale zdravije, a Japan je počeo da ih sustiže. Indija se trudila ovde dole. Primećujete li kako počinje da se kreće? Ali suverenitet je bio zaista, zaista dobar za Japan. I Japan pokušava da se pomeri ovde gore.
And it's the new century now. Health is getting better, United Kingdom, United States. But careful now -- we are approaching the First World War. And the First World War, you know, we'll see a lot of deaths and economical problems here. United Kingdom is going down. And now comes the Spanish flu also. And then after the First World War, they continue up. Still under foreign domination, and without sovereignty, India and China are down in the corner. Not much has happened. They have grown their population but not much more. In the 1930's now, you can see that Japan is going to a period of war, with lower life expectancy. And the Second World War was really a terrible event, also economically for Japan. But they did recover quite fast afterwards. And we are moving into the new world. In 1947 India finally gained its independence. And they could raise the Indian flag and become a sovereign nation, but in very big difficulties down there.
Počinje novi vek. Zdravlje se poboljšava, Velika Britanija, SAD. Oprezno sad - približava se Prvi svetski rat, a Prvi svetski rat će, kao što znate, doneti mnogo smrti i ekonomskih problema. Velika Britanija pada. A sada dolazi i španski grip. Posle Prvog svetskog rata one nastavljaju uspon. Još uvek pod stranom dominacijom i bez suvereniteta, Indija i Kina su dole u ćošku. Nije se puno toga dogodilo. Povećala im se brojnost populacije, ali sve ostalo je skoro isto. Sada smo u 1930-im i možete primetiti da Japan prolazi kroz period rata po nižem očekivanom trajanju života. Drugi svetski rat je bio zaista strašan događaj, za Japan i ekonomski, ali su se oporavili veoma brzo po završetku rata. Stižemo u novi svet. Konačno 1947. Indija stiče nezavisnost. Podigli su indijsku zastavu i postali suverena nacija, ali su u velikim problemima ovde dole.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)
In 1949 we saw the emergence of the modern China in a way which surprised the world. And what happened? What happens in the after independence? You can see that the health started to improve. Children started to go to school. Health services were provided. This is the Great Leap Forward, when China fell down. It was central planning by Mao Tse Tung. China recovered. Then they said, "Nevermore, stupid central planning." But they went up here, and India was trying to follow. And they were catching up indeed. And both countries had the better health, but still a very low economy.
1949. smo prisustvovali javljanju moderne Kine na način koji je iznenadio svet. Šta se dogodilo? Šta se događa posle sticanja nezavisnosti? Primetite da se zdravlje poboljšava. Deca počinju da idu u škole. Zdravstvene usluge su pružane. A onda je Kina pala za vreme Velikog skoka napred. To je bila centralna planska ekonomija Mao Cedunga. Zatim se Kina oporavila, a onda su rekli: "Nikad više, planska ekonomija je glupa." Otišli su ovde gore, a Indija je pokušavala da ih prati i zaista su ih sustizali. Obe zemlje su bile sve bolje sa zdravljem, ali su im ekonomije bile loše.
And we came to 1978, and Mao Tse Tung died, and a new guy turned up from the left. And it was Deng Xiaoping coming out here. And he said, "Doesn't matter if a cat is white or black, as long as it catches mice." Because catching mice is what the two cats wanted to do. And you can see the two cats being here, China and India, wanting to catch the mices over there, you know. And they decided to go not only for health and education, but also starting to grow their economy. And the market reformer was successful there. In '92 India follows with a market reform. And they go quite closely together, and you can see that the similarity with India and China, in many ways, are greater than the differences with them.
Stižemo do 1978, Mao Cedungove smrti i pojave novog levičara. To je bio Deng Šaoping. Rekao je: "Nije bitno da li je mačka bela ili crna, sve dok hvata miševe." Zato što je hvatanje miševa ono što su dve mačke želele da rade. Primetite da dve mačke ovde, Kina i Indija, žele da uhvate miševe tamo. Odlučili su da ne unapređuju samo zdravstvo i obrazovanje, već da počnu i sa ekonomijom. Reforma tržišta se pokazala uspešnom ovde. Indija sledi reformom tržišta 1992. I zatim idu prilično blizu zajedno i možete primetiti da su sličnosti Indije i Kine na mnogo načina veće od njihovih različitosti.
And here they march on. And will they catch up?
Ovde marširaju, ali da li će sustići?
This is the big question today. There they are today.
To je veliko pitanje današnjice. Ovde su danas.
Now what does it mean that the -- (Applause) the averages there -- this is the average of China. If I would split China, look here, Shanghai has already catched up. Shanghai is already there. And it's healthier than the United States. But on the other hand, Guizhou, one of the poorest inland provinces of China, is there. And if I split Guizhou into urban and rural, the rural part of Guizhou goes down there. You see this enormous inequity in China, in the midst of fast economic growth.
Dakle, šta znači to što - (Aplauz) prosečne vrednosti - ovo je prosek Kine. Kada bih podelio Kinu, pogledajte ovde, Šangaj je već sustigao. Šangaj je već tamo. I još je zdraviji od SAD-a. Ali, sa druge strane, Guejdžou, jedna od siromašnijih, kontinentalnih provincija Kine, je tamo. A ako podelim Guejdžou na urbani i ruralni, ruralni deo Guejdžoua je tamo dole. Primetite ove ogromne razlike unutar Kine, usred brzog ekonomskog rasta.
And if I would also look at India, you have another type of inequity, actually, in India. The geographical, macro-geographical difference is not so big. Uttar Pradesh, the biggest of the states here, is poorer and has a lower health than the rest of India. Kerala is flying on top there, matching United States in health, but not in economy. And here, Maharashtra, with Mumbai, is forging forward. Now in India, the big inequities are within the state, rather than between the states. And that is not a bad thing, in itself. If you have a lot inequity, macro-geographical inequities can be more difficult in the long term to deal with, than if it is in the same area where you have a growth center relatively close to where poor people are living.
Kada pogledamo Indiju, ona zapravo poseduje drugu vrstu nejednakosti. Geografska, makrogeografska razlika nije toliko velika. Utar Pradeš, najveća pokrajina ovde, je siromašnija i lošijeg je zdravlja od ostatka Indije. Kerala leti tamo na vrhu, dostigavši SAD po zdravlju, ali ne i ekonomiji. A ovde, Maharaštra, u kojoj je Mumbaj, grabi napred. Dakle, u Indiji su velike nejednakosti unutar pokrajina, a ne između njih. Samo po sebi to nije loša stvar. Ako imate puno nejednakosti, makrogeografske nejednakosti mogu biti teže za rešavanje na dugi period nego ako je nejednakost unutar oblasti, gde je centar rasta relativno blizu mesta gde žive siromašni ljudi.
No, there is one more inequity. Look there, United States. (Laughter) Oh, they broke my frame. Washington, D.C. went out here. My friends at Gapminder wanted me to show this because there is a new leader in Washington who is really concerned about the health system. And I can understand him, because Washington, D.C. is so rich over there but they are not as healthy as Kerala. It's quite interesting, isn't it? (Applause) I can see a business opportunity for Kerala, helping fix the health system in the United States.
No, postoji još jedna nejednakost. Pogledaje tamo, SAD. (Smeh) Oh, probili su mi okvir stranice. Grad Vašington je ovde. (Smeh) Moji prijatelji u "Gapminder"-u su me zamolili da pokažem ovo zato što se u Vašingtonu nalazi novi lider koji je zaista zabrinut za zdravstveni sistem. Ja ga razumem, budući da je Vašington toliko bogat, ali manje zdrav od Kerale. To je veoma interesantno, zar ne? (Smeh) (Aplauz) Vidim poslovnu priliku za Keralu, pomaganje SAD-u oko popravki zdravstvenog sistema.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
(Applause)
(Aplauz)
Now here we have the whole world. You have the legend down there. And when you see the two giant cats here, pushing forward, you see that in between them and ahead of them, is the whole emerging economies of the world, which Thomas Friedman so correctly called the "flat world." You can see that in health and education, a large part of the world population is putting forward, but in Africa, and other parts, as in rural Guizhou in China, there is still people with low health and very low economy. We have an enormous disparity in the world. But most of the world in the middle are pushing forwards very fast.
Ovde imamo celi svet. U donjem uglu je mapa. Kada posmatrate dve velike mačke ovde kako guraju napred, možete primetiti da se između njih i ispred njih nalazi cela skupina uzdižućih ekonomija sveta, što je Tomas Fridman veoma ispravno nazvao "ravnim svetom". Uočite da veliki deo svetske populacije gura napred što se tiče zdravlja i obrazovanja, ali da u Africi i nekim drugim mestima, kao što je ruralni Guejdžou u Kini, ljudi i dalje žive u lošim zdravstvenim i ekonomskim uslovima. Postoje ogromne nejednakosti u svetu. Ali veći deo sveta koji se nalazi u sredini veoma žuri napred.
Now, back to my projections. When will it catch up? I have to go back to very conventional graph. I will show income per person on this axis instead, poor down here, rich up there. And then time here, from 1858 I start the world. And we shall see what will happen with these countries. You see, China under foreign domination actually lowered their income and came down to the Indian level here. Whereas U.K. and United States is getting richer and richer. And after Second World War, United States is richer than U.K. But independence is coming here. Growth is starting, economic reform. Growth is faster, and with projection from IMF you can see where you expect them to be in 2014.
Vratimo se mojim predviđanjima. Kada će sustići? Moramo se vratiti konvencionalnom grafu. Na ovoj osi je dohodak po stanovniku, siromašni su dole, bogati gore. A ovde je vremenska osa, od 1858. Pokrećem svet. Videćemo šta će se dešavati sa ovim zemljama. Vidite, u Kini pod stranom vlašću dohodak je zapravo pao na nivo Indije ovde. Za to vreme Velika Britanija i SAD postaju sve bogatije. Posle Drugog svetskog rata, SAD su bogatije od Britanije. Nazavisnost dolazi. Počinje rast, ekonomska reforma. Rast ubrzava i pomoću projekcija MMF-a možete videti kakvo stanje se očekuje 2014.
Now, the question is, "When will the catch up take place?" Look at, look at the United States. Can you see the bubble? The bubbles, not my bubbles, but the financial bubbles. That's the dot com bubble. This is the Lehman Brothers doorstep there. You see it came down there. And it seems this is another rock coming down there, you know. So they doesn't seem to go this way, these countries. They seem to go in a more humble growth way, you know. And people interested in growth are turning their eyes towards Asia.
Pitanje je kada će se dogoditi sustizanje? Pogledajte SAD. Vidite li mehur? Mehurove, ne moje balončiće, već finansijske mehurove. Ovo je "dot com" mehur. Ovo je "stepenik" za koji su zašlužni "Lehman Brothers". Vidite kako je dohodak odjednom pao. Izgleda da je i ovde i "Northern Rock". Dakle, izgleda da ove zemlje ne idu ovim putem. Izgleda da imaju mnogo umereniji rast, znate. Ljudi koje interesuje rast počinju da gledaju ka Aziji.
I can compare to Japan. This is Japan coming up. You see, Japan did it like that. We add Japan to it. And there is no doubt that fast catch up can take place. Can you see here what Japan did? Japan did it like this, until full catch up, and then they follow with the other high-income economies. But the real projections for those ones, I would like to give it like this. Can be worse, can be better. It's always difficult to predict, especially about the future. Now, a historian tells me it's even more difficult to predict about the past.
Uporedimo sa Japanom. Ovo je uzdizanje Japana. Vidite, Japan je to uradio na ovaj način. Dodajmo Japan. Nema sumnje da se brzo sustizanje može desiti. Vidite li šta je Japan uradio? Japan je to činio ovako dok nisu sustigli, a zatim prate ostale bogate ekonomije. Ali prave projekcije za ovu grupu zemalja bih hteo da dam na ovaj način. Može lošije, može bolje. Uvek je teško predviđati, pogotovo kad je u pitanju budućnost. Jedan istoričar mi je rekao da je još teže predviđati prošlost.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
I think I'm in a difficult position here. Inequalities in China and India I consider really the big obstacle because to bring the entire population into growth and prosperity is what will create a domestic market, what will avoid social instability, and which will make use of the entire capacity of the population. So, social investments in health, education and infrastructure, and electricity is really what is needed in India and China.
Mislim da sam u teškom položaju ovde. Nejednakosti u Kini i Indiji smatram zaista velikom preprekom, budući da je "uvlačenje" kompletnog stanovništva u rast i prosperitet ono što će stvoriti domaće tržište, omogućiti društvenu stabilnost i iskoristiti pun kapacitet stanovništva. Dakle, društvena ulaganja u zdravstvo, obrazovanje i infrastrukturu, i elektrifikaciju su ono što je zaista neophodno Indiji i Kini. Upoznati ste sa klimom.
You know the climate. We have great international experts within India telling us that the climate is changing, and actions has to be taken, otherwise China and India would be the countries most to suffer from climate change. And I consider India and China the best partners in the world in a good global climate policy. But they ain't going to pay for what others, who have more money, have largely created, and I can agree on that.
Internacionalni eksperti iz Indije poručuju da se klima menja i da moramo delati, inače će Kina i Indija biti zemlje koje će najviše pogoditi klimatske promene. Smatram da su Indija i Kina najbolji partneri na svetu po pitanju dobre globalne klimatske politike. Ali oni neće plaćati ono što su drugi, koji imaju više novca, uglavnom stvorili i ja se mogu složiti sa time.
But what I'm really worried about is war. Will the former rich countries really accept a completely changed world economy, and a shift of power away from where it has been the last 50 to 100 to 150 years, back to Asia? And will Asia be able to handle that new position of being in charge of being the most mighty, and the governors of the world? So, always avoid war, because that always pushes human beings backward. Now if these inequalities, climate and war can be avoided, get ready for a world in equity, because this is what seems to be happening.
Ali ono što me istinski brine je rat. Da li će bivše bogate zemlje zaista prihvatiti da se svetska ekonomija potpuno promeni i da se moć premesti sa mesta na kojima je bila prethodnih 50, 100, pa i 150 godina, nazad u Aziju? I da li će Azija biti u stanju da se nosi sa novom vodećom pozicijom, pozicijom najmoćnijeg i svetskog vladara? Uvek treba izbeći rat, rat gurne ljude unazad. Dakle, ako rešimo probleme nejednakosti, klime i ratovanje, spremite se za svet jednakosti. Po svemu sudeći to se dešava.
And that vision that I got as a young student, 1972, that Indians can be much better than Swedes, is just about to happen. And it will happen precisely the year 2048 in the later part of the summer, in July, more precisely, the 27th of July. (Applause) The 27th of July, 2048 is my 100th birthday. (Laughter) And I expect to speak in the first session of the 39th TED India. Get your bookings in time. Thank you very much.
I ta vizija koju sam imao kao mladi student 1972. godine, kako Indijci mogu biti daleko bolji od Šveđana, će se uskoro desiti. A desiće se tačno 2048. godine u kasnijem delu leta, u julu, tačnije 27. jula. (Aplauz) 27. jul 2048. je moj 100. rođendan. (Smeh) I očekujem da ću govoriti u prvoj sesiji na 39. konferenciji TED India. Rezervišite karte na vreme.
(Applause)
Mnogo vam hvala.