Once upon a time, at the age of 24, I was a student at St. John's Medical College in Bangalore. I was a guest student during one month of a public health course. And that changed my mindset forever. The course was good, but it was not the course content in itself that changed the mindset. It was the brutal realization, the first morning, that the Indian students were better than me.
Jednom davno, kad sam imao 24 godine, bio sam student medicinskog koledža St. John u Bangaloreu. Bio sam gostujući student tijekom jednomjesečnog seminara o javnom zdravstvu. I to je zauvijek promijenilo moj način razmišljanja. Kurs je bio dobar, ali njegov sadržaj nije ono što je promijenilo moj način razmišljanja. Bila je to brutalna istina, koju sam shvatio prvog jutra, da su indijski studenti bolji od mene.
(Laughter)
(smijeh)
You see, I was a study nerd. I loved statistics from a young age. And I studied very much in Sweden. I used to be in the upper quarter of all courses I attended. But in St. John's, I was in the lower quarter. And the fact was that Indian students studied harder than we did in Sweden. They read the textbook twice, or three times or four times. In Sweden we read it once and then we went partying.
Vidite, ja sam bio štreber. Volio sam statistiku od rane mladosti. I marljivo sam učio u Švedskoj. Bio sam u najboljoj četvrtini svih seminara koje sam pohađao. No, u St. John-u bio sam u najlošijoj četvrtini. Činjenica je bila da su indijski studenti učili puno više nego mi u Švedskoj. Oni bi pročitali udžbenik dva puta, ili tri ili četiri puta. U Švedskoj smo ga pročitali jednom i zatim otišli na tulum.
(Laugher)
(smijeh)
And that, to me, that personal experience was the first time in my life that the mindset I grew up with was changed. And I realized that perhaps the Western world will not continue to dominate the world forever. And I think many of you have the same sort of personal experience. It's that realization of someone you meet that really made you change your ideas about the world. It's not the statistics, although I tried to make it funny.
I to je, meni, to osobno iskustvo, prvi put u mom životu promijenilo razmišljanje s kojim sam odrastao. I shvatio sam da možda Zapad neće nastaviti dominirati svijetom zauvijek. Mislim da mnogi od vas imaju slična osobna iskustva. To je spoznaja da je netko koga ste upoznali zaista promijenio vaš pogled na svijet. To nisu samo statistike, iako to ja pokušavam prikazati na zabavan način.
And I will now, here, onstage, try to predict when that will happen -- that Asia will regain its dominant position as the leading part of the world, as it used to be, over thousands of years. And I will do that by trying to predict precisely at what year the average income per person in India, in China, will reach that of the West. And I don't mean the whole economy, because to grow an economy of India to the size of U.K. -- that's a piece of cake, with one billion people. But I want to see when will the average pay, the money for each person, per month, in India and China, when will that have reached that of U.K. and the United States?
Ja ću sada, ovdje, na pozornici, pokušati predvidjeti kad će se to dogoditi, da Azija vrati svoj dominantan položaj kao vodeći dio svijeta, kao što je to bilo nekad, tisućama godina. Ja ću to učiniti tako da pokušam precizno predvidjeti koje će godine prosječan prihod po osobi u Indiji i Kini, dostići onaj na Zapadu. Pri tome ne mislim na cijelo gospodarstvo, jer porast ekonomije u Indiji na veličinu ekonomije Velike Britanije, vrlo je lako, s jednom milijardom ljudi. Ja želim znati kada će prosječna plaća, novac po svakoj osobi, mjesečno, u Indiji i Kini, doseći plaće u Velikoj Britaniji i SAD-u?
But I will start with a historical background. And you can see my map if I get it up here. You know? I will start at 1858. 1858 was a year of great technological advancement in the West. That was the year when Queen Victoria was able, for the first time, to communicate with President Buchanan, through the Transatlantic Telegraphic Cable. And they were the first to "Twitter" transatlantically. (Laughter) (Applause) And I've been able, through this wonderful Google and Internet, to find the text of the telegram sent back from President Buchanan to Queen Victoria. And it ends like this: "This telegraph is a fantastic instrument to diffuse religion, civilization, liberty and law throughout the world."
Počet ću s povijesnim pregledom. Možete vidjeti moju mapu, zar ne? Počet ću s 1858.g. 1858. je bila godina velikog tehnološkog napretka na Zapadu. Te godine je Kraljica Victoria prvi put bila u mogućnosti komunicirati s predsjednikom Buchananom, preko transatlantskog telegrafskog kabla. Oni su bili prvi koji su cvrkutali ("Twitter") preko oceana. (smijeh) (pljesak) Uz pomoć ovog divnog Googla i Interneta, uspio sam pronaći tekst telegrama koji je Buchanan poslao kraljici Victorii. Završavao je ovako: "Ovaj telegraf je sjajan instrument za promicanje religije, civilizacije, slobode i prava diljem svijeta."
Those are nice words. But I got sort of curious of what he meant with liberty, and liberty for whom. And we will think about that when we look at the wider picture of the world in 1858. Because 1858 was also watershed year in the history of Asia. 1858 was the year when the courageous uprising against the foreign occupation of India was defeated by the British forces. And India was up to 89 years more of foreign domination.
To su lijepe riječi. Ali postao sam radoznao što je on mislio pod slobodom, i slobodom za koga. Razmislimo o tome kada gledamo širu sliku svijeta u 1858-oj. Jer 1858. g. bila je prekretnica u povijesti Azije. 1858. je bila godina kada je hrabri ustanak protiv strane okupacije Indije ugušila britanska vojska. A Indija je podvrgnuta dodatnih 89 godina stranoj dominaciji.
1858 in China was the victory in the Opium War by the British forces. And that meant that foreigners, as it said in the treaty, were allowed to trade freely in China. It meant paying with opium for Chinese goods.
1858. u Kini bila je godina pobjede britanske vojske u Opijumskom ratu. To je značilo da stranci, kako je rečeno u mirovnom sporazumu, mogu slobodno trgovati u Kini. To je značilo plaćati opijumom za kinesku robu.
And 1858 in Japan was the year when Japan had to sign the Harris Treaty and accept trade on favorable condition for the U.S. And they were threatened by those black ships there, that had been in Tokyo harbor over the last year. But, Japan, in contrast to India and China, maintained its national sovereignty.
1858. u Japanu bila je godina kad je Japan morao potpisati Harrisov sporazum i prihvatiti trgovinu pod uvjetima povoljnima za SAD. To je bilo pod prijetnjom crnih brodova koji su preko godinu dana bili usidreni u luci u Tokyu. Ali Japan je, za razliku od Indije i Kine zadržao nacionalni suverenitet.
And let's see how much difference that can make. And I will do that by bringing these bubbles back to a Gapminder graph here, where you can see each bubble is a country. The size of the bubble here is the population. On this axis, as I used to have income per person in comparable dollar. And on that axis I have life expectancy, the health of people. And I also bring an innovation here. I have transformed the laser beam into an ecological, recyclable version here, in green India.
Pogledajmo kakvu razliku to čini. Pokazat ću to tako da stavim ove balončiće natrag u Gapminder graf gdje je svaki balončić jedna zemlja. Veličina balončića je veličina populacije. Na ovoj osi (x) je prihod po osobi u komparativnoj valuti. Na drugoj osi (y) je očekivano trajanje života, zdravlje ljudi. Uvodim još jednu inovaciju ovdje. Transformirao sam lasersku zraku u njezinu ekološku verziju koja se može reciklirati, ovdje u zelenoj Indiji.
(Applause)
(pljesak)
And we will see, you know. Look here, 1858, India was here, China was here, Japan was there, United States and United Kingdom was richer over there. And I will start the world like this. India was not always like this level. Actually if we go back into the historical record, there was a time hundreds of years ago when the income per person in India and China was even above that of Europe. But 1850 had already been many, many years of foreign domination, and India had been de-industrialized. And you can see that the countries who were growing their economy was United States and United Kingdom. And they were also, by the end of the century, getting healthy, and Japan was starting to catch up. India was trying down here. Can you see how it starts to move there? But really, really natural sovereignty was good for Japan. And Japan is trying to move up there.
I sad ćemo vidjeti. Gledajte, 1858, Indija je ovdje, tu je Kina, tamo Japan Sjedinjene američe države i Velika Britanija bile su bogatije, tamo. I sad ću pokrenuti svijet ovako. Indija nije uvijek bila na ovom nivou. Ako se vratimo u povijest, jedno je vrijeme, prije nekoliko stotina godina, kad je prihod po osobi u Indiji i Kini bio čak iznad onoga u Europi. Ali 1850. imamo već mnogo mnogo godina strane dominacije, i Indija je bila deindustrijalizirana. Zemlje koje su gospodarski rasle bile su Sjedinjene Države i Velika Britanija. One su također, pred kraj stoljeća, postajale sve zdravije i Japan ih je počeo sustizati. Indija je pokušavala ovdje dolje. Vidite li kako se počinje micati tamo? Nacionalni suverenitet je bio jako dobar za Japan. I Japan se pokušava pomaknuti tamo gore.
And it's the new century now. Health is getting better, United Kingdom, United States. But careful now -- we are approaching the First World War. And the First World War, you know, we'll see a lot of deaths and economical problems here. United Kingdom is going down. And now comes the Spanish flu also. And then after the First World War, they continue up. Still under foreign domination, and without sovereignty, India and China are down in the corner. Not much has happened. They have grown their population but not much more. In the 1930's now, you can see that Japan is going to a period of war, with lower life expectancy. And the Second World War was really a terrible event, also economically for Japan. But they did recover quite fast afterwards. And we are moving into the new world. In 1947 India finally gained its independence. And they could raise the Indian flag and become a sovereign nation, but in very big difficulties down there.
I došlo je novo stoljeće. Zdravstvo se popravilo, Velika Britanija, SAD, ali pazite, približava se Prvi svjetski rat. U Prvom svjetskom ratu, znate vidjet ćemo mnogo smrti i gospodarskih problema. Velika Britanija pada dolje Dolazi i španjolska gripa. Nakon Prvog svjetskog rata, one nastavljaju put prema gore. Još uvijek pod stranom dominacijom, bez suvereniteta, Indija i Kina su dolje u kutu. Nije se puno toga promijenilo. Populacija im je narasla, ali to je sve. U 1930-tima, možete vidjeti da Japan prolazi kroz period rata s nižim očekivanim trajanjem života. Drugi svjetski rat je zaista tragičan događaj, također za gospodarstvo Japana. Ali oni su se vrlo brzo oporavili nakon toga. I krećemo u novi svijet. 1947. Indija napokon postaje neovisna. Mogli su izvjesiti indijsku zastavu i postali suverena nacija, ali su u vrlo velikim teškoćama tamo dolje.
(Applause)
(pljesak)
In 1949 we saw the emergence of the modern China in a way which surprised the world. And what happened? What happens in the after independence? You can see that the health started to improve. Children started to go to school. Health services were provided. This is the Great Leap Forward, when China fell down. It was central planning by Mao Tse Tung. China recovered. Then they said, "Nevermore, stupid central planning." But they went up here, and India was trying to follow. And they were catching up indeed. And both countries had the better health, but still a very low economy.
1949. vidjeli smo početke moderne Kine na način koji je iznenadio svijet. I što se dogodilo? Što se događa nakon neovisnosti? Vidite da se zdravlje počelo popravljati. Djeca su krenula u školu. Pružena je zdravstvena skrb. To je bilo veliki korak naprijed, a onda je Kina pala. To je centralno plansko gospodarstvo Mao Tse Tunga. Zatim se Kina oporavila. Rekli su, "Nikada više, glupo centralno planiranje." I otišli su tu gore, a Indija je nastojala slijediti. I zaista su ih dostizali. Obje zemlje su imale bolje zdravstvo, ali još uvijek loše gospodarstvo.
And we came to 1978, and Mao Tse Tung died, and a new guy turned up from the left. And it was Deng Xiaoping coming out here. And he said, "Doesn't matter if a cat is white or black, as long as it catches mice." Because catching mice is what the two cats wanted to do. And you can see the two cats being here, China and India, wanting to catch the mices over there, you know. And they decided to go not only for health and education, but also starting to grow their economy. And the market reformer was successful there. In '92 India follows with a market reform. And they go quite closely together, and you can see that the similarity with India and China, in many ways, are greater than the differences with them.
I dolazimo do 1978., Mao Tse Tung je umro, i dolazi novi tip s lijeva. Dolazi Deng Xiaoping. On kaže, "Nema veze je li mačka bijela ili crna, sve dok hvata miševe." Jer hvatanje miševa je ono što su dvije mačke htjele raditi. I možete vidjeti dvije mačke ovdje, Kina i Indija, kako žele uloviti miševe tamo. Odlučile su ići ne samo na zdravstvo i edukaciju, nego i gospodarski rast. Reformator tržišta bio je ovdje uspješan. 1992. Indija slijedi s reformom tržišta. I one putuju vrlo blizu zajedno, i vidi se kako je sličnost između Indije i Kine, na više načina, veća od razlika među njima.
And here they march on. And will they catch up?
I one marširaju naprijed. Hoće li dostići?
This is the big question today. There they are today.
To je veliko pitanje sad. Ovdje su one danas.
Now what does it mean that the -- (Applause) the averages there -- this is the average of China. If I would split China, look here, Shanghai has already catched up. Shanghai is already there. And it's healthier than the United States. But on the other hand, Guizhou, one of the poorest inland provinces of China, is there. And if I split Guizhou into urban and rural, the rural part of Guizhou goes down there. You see this enormous inequity in China, in the midst of fast economic growth.
To znači da je -- (pljesak) prosjek , ovo je prosjek Kine. Ako bih podijelio Kinu, pogledajte, Shanghai je već dostigao. Shanghai je već tamo. I zdraviji je nego Sjedinjene Države. No, s druge strane, Guizhou, jedna od najsiromašnijih provincija Kine, je tamo. A ako podijelim Guizhou u urbani i ruralni, ruralni dio ide tamo dolje. Vidite ogromne razlike unutar Kine, usred brzog gospodarskog rasta.
And if I would also look at India, you have another type of inequity, actually, in India. The geographical, macro-geographical difference is not so big. Uttar Pradesh, the biggest of the states here, is poorer and has a lower health than the rest of India. Kerala is flying on top there, matching United States in health, but not in economy. And here, Maharashtra, with Mumbai, is forging forward. Now in India, the big inequities are within the state, rather than between the states. And that is not a bad thing, in itself. If you have a lot inequity, macro-geographical inequities can be more difficult in the long term to deal with, than if it is in the same area where you have a growth center relatively close to where poor people are living.
A ako pogledam Indiju, tu imate drugu vrstu nejednakosti. Geografske, makrogeografska razlika nije velika. Uttar Pradesh, najveća pokrajina, siromašnija je i ima slabije zdravlje od ostatka Indije. Kerala leti tamo na vrhu, dostigavši Sjedinjene Države po zdravstvu, ali ne i u gospodarstvu. A ovdje, Maharashtra, s Mumbaiem, brza naprijed. U Indiji su, dakle, velike nejednakosti u unutar pokrajine, a ne između pokrajina. A to nije samo po sebi loše. Ako imate puno nejednakosti, makrogeografske nejednakosti dugoročno su veći problem nego nedjednakosti u istom području gdje imate centar rasta blizu mjesta gdje žive siromašni.
No, there is one more inequity. Look there, United States. (Laughter) Oh, they broke my frame. Washington, D.C. went out here. My friends at Gapminder wanted me to show this because there is a new leader in Washington who is really concerned about the health system. And I can understand him, because Washington, D.C. is so rich over there but they are not as healthy as Kerala. It's quite interesting, isn't it? (Applause) I can see a business opportunity for Kerala, helping fix the health system in the United States.
No, tu je još jedna nejednakost. Pogledajte ovdje, Sjedinjene Države. (smijeh) Oh, probile su moj okvir. Washington D.C. se probio tamo. Moji prijatelji u Gapminderu su htjeli da ovo pokažem jer sada je novi lider u Washingtonu koji je zaista zabrinut za zdravstvo. Mogu ga razumjeti, jer je Washinton D.C. silno bogat ali ne tako zdrav kao Kerala. Zanimljivo, zar ne? (pljesak) Vidim poslovnu priliku za Keralu, da pomognu popraviti zdravstvo u Sjedinjenim Državama.
(Laughter)
(smijeh)
(Applause)
(pljesak)
Now here we have the whole world. You have the legend down there. And when you see the two giant cats here, pushing forward, you see that in between them and ahead of them, is the whole emerging economies of the world, which Thomas Friedman so correctly called the "flat world." You can see that in health and education, a large part of the world population is putting forward, but in Africa, and other parts, as in rural Guizhou in China, there is still people with low health and very low economy. We have an enormous disparity in the world. But most of the world in the middle are pushing forwards very fast.
Ovdje sad imamo cijeli svijet. Vidite legendu tamo dolje. I kada vidite dvije divovske mačke ovdje, kako idu naprijed, vidite da su između njih i pred njima, cijela nova gospodarstva svijeta, koja je Thomas Friedman ispravno zvao "ravni svijet". Vidite da u zdravstvu i edukaciji velik dio svijeta ide naprijed, ali u Africi, i drugim mjestima, kao u ruralnom Guizhou u Kini, još žive ljudi s lošim zdravstvom i vrlo slabim gospodarstvom. Imamo ogromne nejednakosti u svijetu. Ali većina svijeta u sredini ide naprijed vrlo brzo.
Now, back to my projections. When will it catch up? I have to go back to very conventional graph. I will show income per person on this axis instead, poor down here, rich up there. And then time here, from 1858 I start the world. And we shall see what will happen with these countries. You see, China under foreign domination actually lowered their income and came down to the Indian level here. Whereas U.K. and United States is getting richer and richer. And after Second World War, United States is richer than U.K. But independence is coming here. Growth is starting, economic reform. Growth is faster, and with projection from IMF you can see where you expect them to be in 2014.
Vratimo se mojim predviđanjima. Kada će nas sustići? Moram se vratiti konvencionalnom prikazu. Pokazat ću prihod po osobi na ovoj osi (y), siromašni tu dolje, bogati tamo gore. I onda vrijeme, od 1858. Pokrećem svijet. Vidjet ćemo što se događa s ovim zemljama. Vidite, u Kini se pod stranom dominacijom prihod zapravo smanjio i završio dolje na razini Indije. Za to vrijeme Velika Britanija i SAD su postajale bogatije i bogatije. Nakon Drugog svjetskog rata, SAD su bogatije nego Velika Britanija. Ali dolazi neovisnost- Počinje rast, gospodarska reforma. Rast je brži i po projekciji od IMF-a vidite gdje ih se očekuje 2014.
Now, the question is, "When will the catch up take place?" Look at, look at the United States. Can you see the bubble? The bubbles, not my bubbles, but the financial bubbles. That's the dot com bubble. This is the Lehman Brothers doorstep there. You see it came down there. And it seems this is another rock coming down there, you know. So they doesn't seem to go this way, these countries. They seem to go in a more humble growth way, you know. And people interested in growth are turning their eyes towards Asia.
No, pitanje je, "Kad će nas sustići?" Pogledajte Sjedinjene Države. Vidite li balončić? Balončići, ne ovi moji, nego financijski balončići. Ovo je "dot com" balončić. Ovo je Lehman Brothers. Vidite kako je pao ovdje. Izgleda da još jedan pada ovdje, znate. Ne izgleda da te zemlje idu ovim putem. Izgleda da rastu puno skromnijom brzinom. A ljudi zainteresirani za rast okreću se prema Aziji.
I can compare to Japan. This is Japan coming up. You see, Japan did it like that. We add Japan to it. And there is no doubt that fast catch up can take place. Can you see here what Japan did? Japan did it like this, until full catch up, and then they follow with the other high-income economies. But the real projections for those ones, I would like to give it like this. Can be worse, can be better. It's always difficult to predict, especially about the future. Now, a historian tells me it's even more difficult to predict about the past.
Mogu usporediti s Japanom. Ovo je Japan kako se uzdiže. Vidite, Japan je to učinio ovako. Dodajemo Japan. Nema sumnje da je moguće brzo sustizanje. Vidite li što je Japan napravio? Japan je to učinio ovako, dok nije u potpunosti sustigao, i nakon toga slijedi ostale bogate zemlje. No pravu procjenu za njih bih napravio ovako. Može biti gore, može biti bolje. Nije lako predviđati, naročito budućnost. Jedan povjesničar mi je rekao da je još teže predviđati prošlost.
(Laughter)
(smijeh)
I think I'm in a difficult position here. Inequalities in China and India I consider really the big obstacle because to bring the entire population into growth and prosperity is what will create a domestic market, what will avoid social instability, and which will make use of the entire capacity of the population. So, social investments in health, education and infrastructure, and electricity is really what is needed in India and China.
Mislim da sam u teškom položaju ovdje. Nejednakosti u Kini i Indiji smatram velikom preprekom jer rast i blagostanje cijele populacije ono je što stvara domaće tržište, što stvara stabilnost u društvu, i može iskoristiti cijeli kapacitet populacije. Dakle, socijalne investicije u zdravstvo, edukaciju i infrastrukturu, struju, ono je što treba Indiji i Kini.
You know the climate. We have great international experts within India telling us that the climate is changing, and actions has to be taken, otherwise China and India would be the countries most to suffer from climate change. And I consider India and China the best partners in the world in a good global climate policy. But they ain't going to pay for what others, who have more money, have largely created, and I can agree on that.
Klima. Imamo sjajne priznate stručnjake u Indiji koji nam govore da se klima mijenja, i da se nešto mora poduzeti, inače će Kina i Indija biti zemlje koje će najviše patiti zbog promjene klime. Smatram da su Indija i Kina najbolji partneri na svijetu za dobru globalnu klimatsku politiku. Ali oni neće platiti za probleme koje su ostali, koji imaju više novca, stvorili, i ja se mogu s tim složiti.
But what I'm really worried about is war. Will the former rich countries really accept a completely changed world economy, and a shift of power away from where it has been the last 50 to 100 to 150 years, back to Asia? And will Asia be able to handle that new position of being in charge of being the most mighty, and the governors of the world? So, always avoid war, because that always pushes human beings backward. Now if these inequalities, climate and war can be avoided, get ready for a world in equity, because this is what seems to be happening.
Ali ono što me zaista brine je rat. Hoće li bivše bogate zemlje zaista prihvatiti potpuno izmjenjeno svjetsko gospodarstvo i pomicanje moći izvan centra gdje je bila u zadnjih 50 do 100 do 150 godina, natrag u Aziju? Hoće li Azija biti u stanju nositi se s novom pozicijom najmoćnijega, i vladara svijeta? Izbjegavajmo rat, jer to uvijek gurne ljudsko društvo unazad. Ako se ove nejednakosti, klima i rat mogu izbjeći, spremite se za svijet u jednakosti. Jer čini se da se to događa.
And that vision that I got as a young student, 1972, that Indians can be much better than Swedes, is just about to happen. And it will happen precisely the year 2048 in the later part of the summer, in July, more precisely, the 27th of July. (Applause) The 27th of July, 2048 is my 100th birthday. (Laughter) And I expect to speak in the first session of the 39th TED India. Get your bookings in time. Thank you very much.
I vizija koju sam imao kao mladi student, 1972, da su Indijci puno bolji od Šveđana, uskoro će se obistiniti. I to će se dogoditi točno godine 2048 u drugom dijelu ljeta, u srpnju, preciznije, 27. srpnja. (pljesak) 27. srpnja 2048 je moj 100-ti rođendan. (smijeh) Očekujem da ću govoriti u prvom dijelu 39.-tog TEDIndia. Napravite rezervacije na vrijeme. Hvala puno.
(Applause)
(pljesak)