Hans Rosling: I'm going to ask you three multiple choice questions. Use this device. Use this device to answer. The first question is, how did the number of deaths per year from natural disaster, how did that change during the last century? Did it more than double, did it remain about the same in the world as a whole, or did it decrease to less than half? Please answer A, B or C. I see lots of answers. This is much faster than I do it at universities. They are so slow. They keep thinking, thinking, thinking. Oh, very, very good.
Hans Rosling: Sizga javob variantli uchta savol bermoqchiman. Javob berish uchun tarqatilgan mana bu qurilmani ishlating. Birinchi savol: yiliga tabiiy ofatdan [2014, iyun. Berlin, Germaniya] halok bo'luvchilar soni o'tgan asrda mobaynida qanchalik o'zgardi? Ikki baravarga ko'paydimi, butun dunyo miqyosida deyarli o'zgarishga uchramadimi yoki ikki baravar kamaydimi? Iltimos, A, B yoki C javobini tanlang. Juda ko'p javoblarni ko'ryapman. Universitetdagi talabalarimdan ko'ra tezroq javob beryapsiz. Ular shunchalik sekinki, o'ylayveradi, o'ylayveradi. Juda yaxshi, ajoyib.
And we go to the next question. So how long did women 30 years old in the world go to school: seven years, five years or three years? A, B or C? Please answer.
Keyingi savolga o'tamiz. Xo'sh, o'rtacha 30 yoshdagi ayollar qancha vaqt maktabga borgan: yetti yil, besh yil yoki uch yil? A, B yoki C? Iltimos, javob bering.
And we go to the next question. In the last 20 years, how did the percentage of people in the world who live in extreme poverty change? Extreme poverty — not having enough food for the day. Did it almost double, did it remain more or less the same, or did it halve? A, B or C?
Endi esa oxirgi savol. So'nggi 20 yil ichida dunyoda o'ta qashshoqlikda yashovchi kishilar foizi qaysi tomonga o'zgardi? O'ta qashshoqlik — kunlik iste'mol uchun oziq-ovqat yetishmasligi. Ularning soni ikki baravar ko'payganmi, o'zgarmay qolganmi yoki ikki baravar kamayganmi? A, B yoki C?
Now, answers. You see, deaths from natural disasters in the world, you can see it from this graph here, from 1900 to 2000. In 1900, there was about half a million people who died every year from natural disasters: floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruption, whatever, droughts. And then, how did that change?
Endi javoblarga to'xtalsak. Mana qarang, 1900-yildan 2000-yilgacha tabiiy ofatlardan o'lganlar sonini mazkur grafikdan ko'rishingiz mumkin. 1900-yilda yiliga yarim millionga yaqin kishi tabiiy ofatlardan halok bo'lgan: suv toshqini, zilzila, vulqon otilishi, qurg'oqchilik va boshqalar. Xo'sh, ularning soni qanchalik o'zgardi?
Gapminder asked the public in Sweden. This is how they answered. The Swedish public answered like this: Fifty percent thought it had doubled, 38 percent said it's more or less the same, 12 said it had halved. This is the best data from the disaster researchers, and it goes up and down, and it goes to the Second World War, and after that it starts to fall and it keeps falling and it's down to much less than half. The world has been much, much more capable as the decades go by to protect people from this, you know. So only 12 percent of the Swedes know this.
Gapminder tashkiloti Shvetsiya aholisidan so'rov o'tkazdi. Mana ularning javoblari. Shved jamoatchiligi shunday javob berdi: ularning 50 foizi ikki baravar ko'paydi deb o'ylagan, 38 %i deyarli o'zgarmay qoldi, 12 %iga ko'ra, ikki marta qisqargan. Bu tadqiqotchilar tomonidan yig'ilgan eng ishonchli ma'lumotlardir, ularning soni goh ko'tariladi, goh tushadi, II Jahon urushida eng yuqori ko'rsatichni qayd etgach, u pasaya boshladi va hozirgacha ikki baravarga kamaydi. Bilasizmi, har o'n yillikda dunyo odamlarni falokatlardan yanada yaxshiroq himoya qilishga qodir bo'lib bormoqda. Shvedlarning atigi 12 foizigina bundan xabardor. Shunda
So I went to the zoo and I asked the chimps. (Laughter) (Applause) The chimps don't watch the evening news, so the chimps, they choose by random, so the Swedes answer worse than random. Now how did you do? That's you. You were beaten by the chimps. (Laughter) But it was close. You were three times better than the Swedes, but that's not enough. You shouldn't compare yourself to Swedes. You must have higher ambitions in the world.
hayvonot bog'iga borib, shimpanzelardan so'radim. (Kulgi) (Qarsak) Shimpanzelar kechki yangiliklarni tomosha qilmasligi aniq, ammo ular tavakkal javob berib ham shvedlarni dog'da qoldirdi. Siz qanday javob berdingiz? Mana bunday. Shimpanzelar sizni ham mag'lub qildi. (Kulgi) Ammo g'alabaga yaqin keldingiz. Siz shvedlardan uch baravar yaxshi javob berdingiz, ammo bu yetarli emas. O'zingizni ular bilan taqqoslamasligingiz kerak. Siz eng yuqori natijalarni ko'rsatishingiz kerak. Keyingi javobga
Let's look at the next answer here: women in school. Here, you can see men went eight years. How long did women go to school? Well, we asked the Swedes like this, and that gives you a hint, doesn't it? The right answer is probably the one the fewest Swedes picked, isn't it? (Laughter) Let's see, let's see. Here we come. Yes, yes, yes, women have almost caught up. This is the U.S. public. And this is you. Here you come. Ooh. Well, congratulations, you're twice as good as the Swedes, but you don't need me —
e'tibor qaratsak: ayollarning maktabdagi ta'limi. Ko'rinib turibdiki, erkaklar o'rtacha 8 yil maktabga qatnagan. Ayollar necha yil maktabda o'qigan? Shvedlarga xuddi shu savolni berdik va ularning javobini tahmin qilishingiz mumkin, shunday emasmi? To'g'ri javob, ehtimol, eng kam shvedlar tanlagan variantdir? (Kulgi) Qani, ko'raylikchi. Mana natijalar. Ha, ha, ha. Ayollar erkaklarga deyarli yetib oldi. Bu AQSh jamoatchiligining javoblari. Bunisi esa sizniki. Ooo, nima ham derdim, tabriklayman, siz shvedlardan ikki baravar yaxshi natija ko'rsatdingiz, bunisi o'z-o'zidan ravshan.
So how come? I think it's like this, that everyone is aware that there are countries and there are areas where girls have great difficulties. They are stopped when they go to school, and it's disgusting. But in the majority of the world, where most people in the world live, most countries, girls today go to school as long as boys, more or less. That doesn't mean that gender equity is achieved, not at all. They still are confined to terrible, terrible limitations, but schooling is there in the world today. Now, we miss the majority. When you answer, you answer according to the worst places, and there you are right, but you miss the majority.
Xo'sh, nega bunday natijalar chiqyapti? Menimcha, bunga sabab shuki, hammamiz qizlar katta muammolarga duch kelayotgan joylar, davlatlar borligini bilamiz. Ularga maktabga borish taqiqlangan va bu jirkanch holat. Ammo dunyoning aksariyat aholisi yashaydigan ko'pchilik mamlakatlarda bugungi kunda qizlar o'g'il bolalar bilan deyarli birdek maktabga boradilar. Bu umuman gender tengligiga erishganimizni anglatmaydi. Ular hali ham ko'p narsadan mahrum, ammo maktab ta'limi izga tushdi. Bu yerda siz umumiy manzarani hisobga olmadingiz. Eng og'ir ahvoldagi muayyan hududlarga asoslanib javob berdingiz va bu holatda siz haqlisiz, lekin umumiy manzara butunlay boshqacha. Qashshoqlik
What about poverty? Well, it's very clear that poverty here was almost halved, and in U.S., when we asked the public, only five percent got it right. And you? Ah, you almost made it to the chimps. (Laughter) (Applause) That little, just a few of you! There must be preconceived ideas, you know. And many in the rich countries, they think that oh, we can never end extreme poverty. Of course they think so, because they don't even know what has happened. The first thing to think about the future is to know about the present.
masalasi qay ahvolda? Qashshoqlik ko'rsatkichi deyarli ikki baravar kamayganligi o'z-o'zidan ravshan. Amerikaliklarning atigi besh foizi to'g'ri javob berdi. Siz-chi? Eh-he, shimpanzelarga deyarli yetib olibsiz-ku. (Kulgi) (Qarsak) Yutishingizga ozgina yetmabdi-ya! Bilasizmi, atrofimizda to'qima fikrlar keng tarqalgan. Boy mamlakatlarda ko'pchilik hech qachon qashshoqlikni tugata olmasak kerak, deb o'ylashadi. Boshqa nima deb ham o'ylasin, axir ular aslida nimalar bo'layotganini bilishmaydi-ku. Kelajak haqida o'ylashdan avval hozirda nimalar bo'layotganini bilish kerak.
These questions were a few of the first ones in the pilot phase of the Ignorance Project in Gapminder Foundation that we run, and it was started, this project, last year by my boss, and also my son, Ola Rosling. (Laughter) He's cofounder and director, and he wanted, Ola told me we have to be more systematic when we fight devastating ignorance. So already the pilots reveal this, that so many in the public score worse than random, so we have to think about preconceived ideas, and one of the main preconceived ideas is about world income distribution.
Mazkur savollar Gapminder Tashkilotining bilimsizlik to'g'risidagi loyihasi doirasida bergan dastlabki savollarimizdan bir nechtasi edi. Loyiha o'tgan yili mening boshlig'im va shuningdek o'g'lim Ola Rosling tomonidan ishga tushirildi. (Kulgi) U tashkilotning hammuassisi hamda direktori hisoblanadi. Ola menga johillikka qarshi doimiy ravishda asosli kurashishimiz kerakligini aytdi. So'rovnomalarga ko'ra, jamoatchilik tasodifiy javoblardan ko'ra yomonroq natija ko'rsatmoqda. Demak, to'qima fikrlarga qarshi chora ko'rishimiz zarur. Eng keng tarqalgan yanglish fikr bu dunyo daromadlari taqsimoti bilan bog'liq.
Look here. This is how it was in 1975. It's the number of people on each income, from one dollar a day — (Applause) See, there was one hump here, around one dollar a day, and then there was one hump here somewhere between 10 and 100 dollars. The world was two groups. It was a camel world, like a camel with two humps, the poor ones and the rich ones, and there were fewer in between.
Mana qarang. 1975-yilda ko'rsatkichlar shunday edi. Bu kunlik daromadi bir dollardan boshlanib o'sib boruvchi kishilar soni. (Qarsak) Bu yerdagi bitta do'nglikni ko'ryapsizmi, bu - kunlik daromadi bir dollar atrofida bo'lganlar, bu esa daromadi 10-100 dollar bo'lgan kishilardan iborat boshqa bir do'nglik Dunyo ikki guruhga bo'lingan. Bu go'yo ikki o'rkachli tuya dunyosi edi: kambag'allar va boylar. O'rta sinf deyarli yo'q edi.
But look how this has changed: As I go forward, what has changed, the world population has grown, and the humps start to merge. The lower humps merged with the upper hump, and the camel dies and we have a dromedary world with one hump only. The percent in poverty has decreased. Still it's appalling that so many remain in extreme poverty. We still have this group, almost a billion, over there, but that can be ended now.
Ammo bu qanday o'zgarganiga e'tibor qarating: vaqt o'tishi bilan dunyo aholisi ko'payib bordi, «o'rkachlar» esa birlasha boshladi. Pastki do'nglik yuqoridagisi bilan birlashdi va ikki o'rkachli tuyamiz bir o'rkachli tuyaga aylandi. Qashshoqlik ko'rsatkichi kamaydi. Shunga qaramay, ko'pchilik odamlar qashshoqlikda qolayotgani dahshatli. Haligacha bir milliardga yaqin kishi qashshoqlikda yashaydi, ammo endi buni tugatish mumkin. Bizning oldimizda
The challenge we have now is to get away from that, understand where the majority is, and that is very clearly shown in this question. We asked, what is the percentage of the world's one-year-old children who have got those basic vaccines against measles and other things that we have had for many years: 20, 50 or 80 percent? Now, this is what the U.S. public and the Swedish answered. Look at the Swedish result: you know what the right answer is. (Laughter) Who the heck is a professor of global health in that country? Well, it's me. It's me. (Laughter) It's very difficult, this. It's very difficult. (Applause)
turgan vazifa – to'qima fikrlardan uzoq turish, ko'pchilik aholi qayerda joylashganini tushunish. Bu savolning o'zida juda aniq ko'rsatilgan. Biz dunyo bo'yicha bir yoshli bolalarning necha foizi qizamiqqa va boshqa kasalliklarga qarshi vaksina oladi, deb so'radik: 20, 50 yoki 80 foizmi? Bu amerikaliklar va shvedlar bergan javoblar. Shvedlar ko'rsatgan natijaga qarang: to'g'ri javob qaysiligini bilib olasiz. (Kulgi) Jin ursin, bu mamlakatdagi global sog'liqni saqlash professori kim o'zi? Ochig'i, o'sha professor menman. (Kulgi) Bu oson ish emas, ishoning menga. (Qarsak)
However, Ola's approach to really measure what we know made headlines, and CNN published these results on their web and they had the questions there, millions answered, and I think there were about 2,000 comments, and this was one of the comments. "I bet no member of the media passed the test," he said.
Biz nimani bilishimizni aniq hisoblash uchun Ola qo'llagan uslub gazetalarda shov-shuvga sabab bo'ldi. CNN ushbu natijalarni o'z veb-saytida e'lon qildi va mushtariylarga savollar berdi. Millionlab kishilar javob berishdi va maqola ostida, menimcha, 2000 ga yaqin sharhlar qoldirildi. O'sha sharhlardan birida: "Garov bog'lashim mumkinki, OAV xodimlarining hech biri testdan o’tmagan", deyiladi.
So Ola told me, "Take these devices. You are invited to media conferences. Give it to them and measure what the media know." And ladies and gentlemen, for the first time, the informal results from a conference with U.S. media. And then, lately, from the European Union media. (Laughter) You see, the problem is not that people don't read and listen to the media. The problem is that the media doesn't know themselves.
Shunda Ola menga: "Sizni taklif qilishgan matbuot konferensiyalariga borib, qurilma- larni tarqating. Test topshirishsin, OAV nimani bilishini ko'raylikchi", dedi. Marhamat, birinchi marta AQSh matbuot konferensiyada qo'lga kiritilgan norasmiy natijalar. Bu esa Yevropa Ittifoqi OAV laridagi ahvol. (Kulgi) Ko'rib turibsizki, muammo odamlarning ommaviy axborot vositalarini o'qimasliklari va tinglamasliklarida emas. Muammo shundaki, OAV larning o'zlari hech nimani bilmaydi.
What shall we do about this, Ola? Do we have any ideas? (Applause)
Endi nima qildik, Ola? Senda biror fikr bormi? (Qarsak)
Ola Rosling: Yes, I have an idea, but first, I'm so sorry that you were beaten by the chimps. Fortunately, I will be able to comfort you by showing why it was not your fault, actually. Then, I will equip you with some tricks for beating the chimps in the future. That's basically what I will do.
Ola Rosling: Ha, menda bir fikr bor. Ammo birinchi navbatda shimpanzelarga mag'lub bo'lganingizdan afsusdaligimni aytishga ijozat bersangiz. Yaxshiyamki, sizga tasalli bera olaman: nima uchun bu sizning aybingiz emasligini ko'rsataman. Keyin, kelajakda shimpanzelarni yutishingizda yordam beruvchi ba'zi maslahatlarni beraman. Odatda shunday qilaman. Keling, nega dunyo
But first, let's look at why are we so ignorant, and it all starts in this place. It's Hudiksvall. It's a city in northern Sweden. It's a neighborhood where I grew up, and it's a neighborhood with a large problem. Actually, it has exactly the same problem which existed in all the neighborhoods where you grew up as well. It was not representative. Okay? It gave me a very biased view of how life is on this planet. So this is the first piece of the ignorance puzzle. We have a personal bias.
haqida bu qadar kam bilishimizni tushunib olaylik. Hammasi shundan boshlanadi. Bu Hudiksvall, Shvetsiya shimolidagi shahar. Bu men ulg'aygan shaharcha. Unda bir katta muammo bor, aslida, siz o'sib-ulg'aygan joylarda ham xuddi shunday muammo kuzatiladi. Shaharcha oddiy yashash joyi emas. U menga sayyorada hayot qanday kechayotgani haqida juda xato tasavvur bergan. Mana u, bilimsizlik piramidasiga qo'yilgan birinchi tosh. Biz xato shaxsiy tasavvurlarimiz bilan dunyoga boqamiz. Biz yashab
We have all different experiences from communities and people we meet, and on top of this, we start school, and we add the next problem. Well, I like schools, but teachers tend to teach outdated worldviews, because they learned something when they went to school, and now they describe this world to the students without any bad intentions, and those books, of course, that are printed are outdated in a world that changes. And there is really no practice to keep the teaching material up to date. So that's what we are focusing on. So we have these outdated facts added on top of our personal bias.
katta bo'lgan joylardagi kishilar bilan muloqot bunga ta'sir ko'rsatadi. Keyin esa maktabga qatnay boshlaymiz va muammo yana bittaga ko'payadi. Menga maktablar yoqadi, lekin o'qituvchilar eskirgan dunyoqarashni o'rgatadi. Ular maktabga qatnagan paytida bilim oldi va endi dunyo haqidagi shu bilimlarini o'quvchilarga beg'araz o'rgatishadi. Nashr etilgan kitoblar, shubhasiz, eskirgan, axir dunyo doimiy o'zgarishda. O'quv materiallarini yangilab turish o'ta mushkul. Mana biz nimaga e'tibor qaratyapmiz. Eskirgan faktlar xato shaxsiy tasavvurlarimiz ustiga qo'shiladi.
What happens next is news, okay? An excellent journalist knows how to pick the story that will make headlines, and people will read it because it's sensational. Unusual events are more interesting, no? And they are exaggerated, and especially things we're afraid of. A shark attack on a Swedish person will get headlines for weeks in Sweden.
Bunga OAV ning ta'siri qanday? Yaxshi jurnalist qaysi voqeani yoritsa, «duv-duv gap» bo'lishini biladi. Odamlar shov-shuv yangilik yoritilgan shu gazetani sotib olib o'qiydi. G'ayrioddiy voqealar ko'proq qiziqish uyg'otadi, to'g'rimi? Ko'p narsalar bo'rttirib ko'rsatiladi, ayniqsa biz qo'rqadigan narsalar. Shvedga akula hujumi bir necha hafta davomida Shvetsiya gazetalari sarlavhalaridan tushmaydi.
So these three skewed sources of information were really hard to get away from. They kind of bombard us and equip our mind with a lot of strange ideas, and on top of it we put the very thing that makes us humans, our human intuition. It was good in evolution. It helped us generalize and jump to conclusions very, very fast. It helped us exaggerate what we were afraid of, and we seek causality where there is none, and we then get an illusion of confidence where we believe that we are the best car drivers, above the average. Everybody answered that question, "Yeah, I drive cars better."
Mazkur uchta xato axborot manbalaridan qutilish juda qiyin. Ular bizga axborot hujumi uyushtirib, ongimizni g'alati fikrlar bilan to'ldiradi. Kamiga ichki sezgimiz ham xato fikrlashimizga xizmat qiladi. Intuitsiyamiz evolyutsiya jarayonida muhim rol o'ynagan. U bizga ma'lumotni umum -lashtirib, tez xulosa chiqarishga yordam bergan. U biz qo'rqqan narsalarni bo'rttirib ko'rsatadi va yo'q joydan falokat qidira boshlaymiz. O'zimizga nisbatan yolg'ondakam ishonch paydo bo'ladi. Masalan, o'zimizni eng zo'r haydovchimiz, hech bo'lmaganda o'rtachadan yaxshiroq haydovchimiz deb ishonamiz Bu savolga hamma "Ha, men mashinani yaxshi haydayman"
Okay, this was good evolutionarily, but now when it comes to the worldview, it is the exact reason why it's upside down. The trends that are increasing are instead falling, and the other way around, and in this case, the chimps use our intuition against us, and it becomes our weakness instead of our strength. It was supposed to be our strength, wasn't it?
deb javob beradi. Bu evolyutsiyaga yaxshi ta'sir ko'rsatdi, ammo hozir dunyoqarash haqida gap ketganda, so'rov natijalarining yomonligiga aynan mana shu sababchi. Sizning xayolingizda ko'tarilayotgan ko'rsatkichlar aslida pasaymoqda va aksincha. Bunday hollarda shimpanzelar ichki sezgimizni o'zimizga qarshi ishlatmoqda, chunki u kuchimiz bo'lish o'rniga kuchsizligimizga aylandi. Intuitsiyamiz bizning kuchli tarafimiz bo'lishi kerak
So how do we solve such problems? First, we need to measure it, and then we need to cure it. So by measuring it we can understand what is the pattern of ignorance. We started the pilot last year, and now we're pretty sure that we will encounter a lot of ignorance across the whole world, and the idea is really to scale it up to all domains or dimensions of global development, such as climate, endangered species, human rights, gender equality, energy, finance. All different sectors have facts, and there are organizations trying to spread awareness about these facts. So I've started actually contacting some of them, like WWF and Amnesty International and UNICEF, and asking them, what are your favorite facts which you think the public doesn't know?
emasmidi? Bu muammolarni qanday hal qilishimiz mumkin? Dastlab, biz uning ko'lamini aniqlashimiz, keyin munosib yechim topishimiz kerak. Muammo hajmini o'lchash bilan biz qanchalik bilimsiz ekanimizni tushunamiz. So'rovnomalarni o'tgan yili boshladik va endi butun dunyoda bilimsizlik odamlarni qanchalik zaharlayotganini bilib olyapmiz. Asosiy g'oyamiz – uning ko'lamini aniqlash va xalqaro bilim va global rivojlanishning asosan qaysi sohalarida uchratishimizni tushunish – xoh u iqlim o'zgarishi, yo'qolib ketayotgan turlar, inson huquqlari bo'lsin, xoh gender tengligi, energetika yoki moliya. Bu sohalarning barchasi faktlarga to'la va bu faktlardan kishilarni xabardor qiluvchi tashkilotlar mavjud. Men ularning bir nechtasi, jumladan, Butunjahon Yovvoyi Tabiat Fondi, Xalqaro Amnistiya va YUNISEF bilan bog'lanib, jamoatchilik bexabar bo'lgan eng ajoyib faktlari qaysiligini so'radim.
Okay, I gather those facts. Imagine a long list with, say, 250 facts. And then we poll the public and see where they score worst. So we get a shorter list with the terrible results, like some few examples from Hans, and we have no problem finding these kinds of terrible results. Okay, this little shortlist, what are we going to do with it? Well, we turn it into a knowledge certificate, a global knowledge certificate, which you can use, if you're a large organization, a school, a university, or maybe a news agency, to certify yourself as globally knowledgeable. Basically meaning, we don't hire people who score like chimpanzees. Of course you shouldn't. So maybe 10 years from now, if this project succeeds, you will be sitting in an interview having to fill out this crazy global knowledge.
O'sha faktlarni to'plab chiqdim. 250 ta faktdan iborat uzun ro'yxatni tasavvur qiling. Keyin biz odamlarga ular to'g'risida savollar beramiz va qayerda bilimlari sustligini bilib olamiz. Faqat dahshatli natijalar ko'rsatilgan savollar qisqa ro'yxatda qoladi, Hans sizga bergan savollar singari. Bunday natijali so'rovlarni aniqlash katta qiyinchilik tug'dirmaydi. Xo'sh, bu qisqa faktlar ro'yxatini nima qilamiz? Biz buni bilimlar sertifikatiga, dunyo haqidagi bilimlar sertifikatiga aylantiramiz. Agar siz yirik tashkilot, maktab, universitet yoki axborot agentligi bo'lsangiz, undan global bilimlardan voqif ekanligingizni tasdiqlashda foydalanishingiz mumkin. Shu tariqa biz savollarga shimpanzega o'xshab javob beradigan xodimlarni yollamayotganimizga ishonch hosil qilamiz. Albatta, bunday qilmasligimiz kerak. Ehtimol 10 yildan keyin, agar ushbu loyiha muvaffaqiyatli yakunlansa, siz ish uchun intervyuda o'tirib, dunyo haqidagi global bilimlaringizni sinovdan o'tkazishingiz kerak bo'ladi.
So now we come to the practical tricks. How are you going to succeed? There is, of course, one way, which is to sit down late nights and learn all the facts by heart by reading all these reports. That will never happen, actually. Not even Hans thinks that's going to happen. People don't have that time. People like shortcuts, and here are the shortcuts. We need to turn our intuition into strength again. We need to be able to generalize. So now I'm going to show you some tricks where the misconceptions are turned around into rules of thumb.
Endi amaliy qismga o'tsak. Qanday qilib shuncha ma'lumotni o'zlashtirish mumkin? Buning usullaridan biri, albatta, kechasi bilan barcha hisobotlarni o'qib, faktlarni yodlab chiqish. Bu hech qanaqasiga ish bermaydi. Hatto Hans ham buni imkonsiz deb o'ylaydi. Odamlarning bunga vaqti yetmaydi. Ularga qisqa yo'l yoqadi va mana u. Biz ichki sezgimizni yana o'z foydamizga ishlatishimiz, umumlashtirishni o'rganishimiz kerak. Men sizga empirik qonuniyatlar orqali yanglish tasavvurlarni fosh etishning bir qancha usullarini o'rgataman.
Let's start with the first misconception. This is very widespread. Everything is getting worse. You heard it. You thought it yourself. The other way to think is, most things improve. So you're sitting with a question in front of you and you're unsure. You should guess "improve." Okay? Don't go for the worse. That will help you score better on our tests. (Applause) That was the first one.
Birinchi eng keng tarqalgan xato tushunchadan boshlasak: atrofdagi hamma narsa yomonlashmoqda. Bu haqda eshitgansiz, o'zingiz ham xuddi shunday o'ylagansiz. Boshqa o'ylash ham mumkin: ko'p narsalar yaxshilanmoqda. Oldingizdagi savolga nima deb javob berishni bilmaysiz. "Yaxshilanmoqda" degan javobni taxmin qilishingiz kerak. Ijobiy variantni tanglang. Pessimist bo'lmang, bu yaxshiroq natija ko'rsatishingizda yordam beradi. (Qarsak) Bu birinchisi. Endi boy va kambag'allar masalasi.
There are rich and poor and the gap is increasing. It's a terrible inequality. Yeah, it's an unequal world, but when you look at the data, it's one hump. Okay? If you feel unsure, go for "the most people are in the middle." That's going to help you get the answer right.
Hamma ular o'rtasidagi tafovut o'sib boryapti deb o'ylaydi. Dahshatli tengsizlikda yashaymiz. Ha, dunyoda tengsizlik mavjud, lekin ma'lumot- -larga qarasangiz, birgina do'nglik mavjud. Agar ikkilansangiz, "ko'pchilik aholi o'rtamiyona" degan variantni tanglang. Bu to'g'ri javob berishingizga yordam
Now, the next preconceived idea is first countries and people need to be very, very rich to get the social development like girls in school and be ready for natural disasters. No, no, no. That's wrong. Look: that huge hump in the middle already have girls in school. So if you are unsure, go for the "the majority already have this," like electricity and girls in school, these kinds of things. They're only rules of thumb, so of course they don't apply to everything, but this is how you can generalize.
beradi. Keyingi xato tushuncha quyidagicha: davlatlar va odamlar ijtimoiy taraqqiyotga erishishi, qizlarini maktabga yuborishi va tabiiy ofatlardan himoyalanishi uchun juda boy bo'lishlari kerak. Bu mutlaqo xato. O'rtadagi ulkan do'nglik qizlarning maktab ta'limi allaqachon ta'minlanganini ko'rsatadi. Agar ikkilansangiz, elektr quvvati va qizlar ta'limi kabi savollar uchun "ko'pchilikda allaqachon bor" variantini tanlang. Bular empirik qonuniyatlar xolos, shuning uchun ularni hamma narsaga tadbiq etib bo'lmaydi, ammo siz shu tariqa umumlashtirishingiz
Let's look at the last one. If something, yes, this is a good one, sharks are dangerous. No — well, yes, but they are not so important in the global statistics, that is what I'm saying. I actually, I'm very afraid of sharks. So as soon as I see a question about things I'm afraid of, which might be earthquakes, other religions, maybe I'm afraid of terrorists or sharks, anything that makes me feel, assume you're going to exaggerate the problem. That's a rule of thumb. Of course there are dangerous things that are also great. Sharks kill very, very few. That's how you should think.
mumkin. So'nggi misolga to'xtalsak. Bu ajoyib misol: akulalar xavfli. Bu xato fikr, ya'ni ular xavfli, ammo xalqaro statistikada muhim ahamiyatga ega emas. Men ham akulalardan juda qo'rqaman. Sizga qo'rquv soladigan masalalar to'g'risida savollarga ko'zingiz tushishi bilan, xoh zilzila, boshqa dinlar bo'lsin, xoh terroristlar yoki akula, javobda ularni bo'rttirib yuborasiz. Bu Bosh barmoq qoidasi. Xavfli narsalar ajoyib bo'lishi mumkin. Akulalar juda oz sonli kishilarni o'ldiradi. Siz mana shunday o'ylashingiz
With these four rules of thumb, you could probably answer better than the chimps, because the chimps cannot do this. They cannot generalize these kinds of rules. And hopefully we can turn your world around and we're going to beat the chimps. Okay? (Applause) That's a systematic approach.
kerak. Ushbu to'rt qoidaga tayanib, siz harqalay shimpanzelarga qaraganda yaxshiroq javob bersangiz kerak, chunki ular bunday qilolmaydi. Ular bunday qoidalarni umumlashtira olmaydi. Umid qilamanki, dunyo haqidagi bilimlaringizni yaxshilay olasiz va kun kelib shimpanzelarni ortda qoldirasiz. (Qarsak) Bu tizimli yondashuv.
Now the question, is this important? Yeah, it's important to understand poverty, extreme poverty and how to fight it, and how to bring girls in school. When we realize that actually it's succeeding, we can understand it. But is it important for everyone else who cares about the rich end of this scale? I would say yes, extremely important, for the same reason. If you have a fact-based worldview of today, you might have a chance to understand what's coming next in the future.
Bularning barchasi biz uchun qanchalar muhim? Ha, qashshoqlik, o'ta qashshoqlik nimaligini va unga qarshi qanday kurashishni tushunish muhim, qizlarga qanday ta'lim berishni tushunish muhim. Bu borada muvaffaqiyat qozonayotganimizni anglaganimizda, biz buni tushuib yetamiz. Ammo aholining boy qatlami haqida qayg'uruvchilar uchun bu muhimmi? Ishonamanki, o'ta muhim, ayni o'sha sababga ko'ra. Agar dunyoqarashingiz faktlarga asoslangan bo'lsa, kelajakda bizni nimalar kutishi mumkinligini tushuna olasiz.
We're going back to these two humps in 1975. That's when I was born, and I selected the West. That's the current EU countries and North America. Let's now see how the rest and the West compares in terms of how rich you are. These are the people who can afford to fly abroad with an airplane for a vacation. In 1975, only 30 percent of them lived outside EU and North America. But this has changed, okay? So first, let's look at the change up till today, 2014. Today it's 50/50. The Western domination is over, as of today. That's nice. So what's going to happen next? Do you see the big hump? Did you see how it moved? I did a little experiment. I went to the IMF, International Monetary Fund, website. They have a forecast for the next five years of GDP per capita. So I can use that to go five years into the future, assuming the income inequality of each country is the same. I did that, but I went even further. I used those five years for the next 20 years with the same speed, just as an experiment what might actually happen. Let's move into the future. In 2020, it's 57 percent in the rest. In 2025, 63 percent. 2030, 68. And in 2035, the West is outnumbered in the rich consumer market. These are just projections of GDP per capita into the future. Seventy-three percent of the rich consumers are going to live outside North America and Europe. So yes, I think it's a good idea for a company to use this certificate to make sure to make fact- based decisions in the future.
1975-yildagi ikkita do'nglikka qaytamiz. Shu yili men tug'ilganman, bu yerda G'arb Yevropa Ittifoqi mamlakatlari va Shimoliy Amerikani o'z ichiga oladi. Keling, boylik nuqtai nazaridan G'arb bilan qolgan dunyoni solishtirib ko'raylik. Bu dam olish uchun samolyotda chet elga uchishga qurbi yetadigan kishilar. 1975-yilda ularning faqat 30 foizi Yevropa Ittifoqi va Shimoliy Amerikadan tashqarida yashagan. Ammo bu holat hozir o'zgargan. 2014-yilgacha bo'lgan o'zgarishlarni ko'rib chiqsak. Bugungi ko'rsatkich 50/50. G'arb hukmronligi orqada qoldi. Bu juda yaxshi. Endi nima bo'ladi? Katta do'nglik va u qanday harakatlangani esingizdami? Men kichik tajriba o'tkazdim. Xalqaro valyuta jamg'armasi veb-saytiga kirdim. U yerda keyingi besh yilda YaIMning aholi jon boshiga qiymati prognozi joylangan. Uni grafikda aks ettirib, mamlakatlarda daromad tengsizligi o'zgarishsiz qolishini ko'rsatishim mumkin. Ammo bu bilan cheklanib qolmadim. Rivojlanish tezligini o'zgartirmagan holda o'sha besh yillik prognozni keyingi 20 yilga tadbiq qildim. Bu tajriba haqiqatga aylanishi mumkin. Kelajakka o'taylik. 2020-yilda bunday kishilarning 57 foizi YI va Amerikadan tashqarida yashaydi. 2025-yilda 63 foizi. 2030-yilda 68 foizi. 2035-yilga kelib esa boshqa mamlakatlar boy iste'mol bozori bo'yicha G'arbni ortda qoldiradi. Bu aholi jon boshiga YaIMning kelajakdagi prognozlari xolos. Boy iste'molchilarning 73 foizi Amerika va Yevropadan tashqarida yashaydi. Kelajakda faktlarga asoslangan qarorlar qabul qilayotganiga ishonch hosil qilishi uchun kompaniyalar mazkur sertifikatdan foydalansa, yomon bo'lmasdi deb o'ylayman.
Thank you very much. (Applause)
Katta rahmat. (Qarsaklar)
Bruno Giussani: Hans and Ola Rosling!
Bruno Jussani: Hans va Ola Rosling