When I was a kid, I was the quintessential nerd. I think some of you were, too.
Kad sam bio dete, bio sam štreber do koske. Mislim da su i neki od vas to bili.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
And you, sir, who laughed the loudest, you probably still are.
A vi, gospodine, koji se najglasnije smejete, verovatno ste to i dalje.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
I grew up in a small town in the dusty plains of north Texas, the son of a sheriff who was the son of a pastor. Getting into trouble was not an option. And so I started reading calculus books for fun.
Odrastao sam u gradiću u prašnjavim ravnicama severnog Teksasa kao sin šerifa koji je sin pastora. Upadanje u nevolju nije dolazilo u obzir. Te sam iz zabave počeo da čitam knjige o proračunu.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
You did, too. That led me to building a laser and a computer and model rockets, and that led me to making rocket fuel in my bedroom. Now, in scientific terms, we call this a very bad idea.
I vi ste. Zbog toga sam sagradio laser, kompjuter i modele raketa, a to me je navelo da napravim raketno gorivo u spavaćoj sobi. Sad, u naučnom smislu, ovo nazivamo veoma lošom idejom.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
Around that same time, Stanley Kubrick's "2001: A Space Odyssey" came to the theaters, and my life was forever changed. I loved everything about that movie, especially the HAL 9000. Now, HAL was a sentient computer designed to guide the Discovery spacecraft from the Earth to Jupiter. HAL was also a flawed character, for in the end he chose to value the mission over human life. Now, HAL was a fictional character, but nonetheless he speaks to our fears, our fears of being subjugated by some unfeeling, artificial intelligence who is indifferent to our humanity.
Otprilike u to vreme, u bioskope je stigla "Odiseja u svemiru: 2001" Stenlija Kjubrika, i moj život je izmenjen zauvek. Sve mi se sviđalo kod tog filma, naročito HAL 9000. Sad, HAL je bio svesni kompjuter osmišljen da vodi kosmički brod Diskaveri od Zemlje do Jupitera. HAL je takođe bio faličan lik jer je na kraju odabrao vrednost misije umesto ljudskog života. Sad, HAL je bio fiktivan lik, ali bez obzira na to, obraća se našim strahovima, našim strahovima da ćemo pasti pod uticaj nekakve bezosećajne, veštačke inteligencije koja je ravnodušna prema našoj ljudskosti.
I believe that such fears are unfounded. Indeed, we stand at a remarkable time in human history, where, driven by refusal to accept the limits of our bodies and our minds, we are building machines of exquisite, beautiful complexity and grace that will extend the human experience in ways beyond our imagining.
Verujem da su takvi strahovi neosnovani. Uistinu se nalazimo u izvanrednom vremenu u ljudskoj istoriji, u kom, pokrenuti odbijanjem da prihvatimo granice naših tela i naših umova, gradimo mašine izuzetne, prelepe složenosti i stila koje će da prošire ljudsko iskustvo na nezamislive načine.
After a career that led me from the Air Force Academy to Space Command to now, I became a systems engineer, and recently I was drawn into an engineering problem associated with NASA's mission to Mars. Now, in space flights to the Moon, we can rely upon mission control in Houston to watch over all aspects of a flight. However, Mars is 200 times further away, and as a result it takes on average 13 minutes for a signal to travel from the Earth to Mars. If there's trouble, there's not enough time. And so a reasonable engineering solution calls for us to put mission control inside the walls of the Orion spacecraft. Another fascinating idea in the mission profile places humanoid robots on the surface of Mars before the humans themselves arrive, first to build facilities and later to serve as collaborative members of the science team.
Nakon karijere koja seže od akademije ratnog vazduhoplovstva preko svemirskog zapovednika do sada, postao sam inženjer za sisteme, a nedavno me je privukao inženjerski problem u vezi sa NASA-inom misijom na Marsu. Sad, tokom svemirskih letova na Mesec možemo da se oslonimo na kontrolu misije u Hjustonu da će da prati sve aspekte leta. Međutim, Mars je 200 puta dalje, i zbog toga je potrebno u proseku 13 minuta za signal da putuje od Zemlje do Marsa. Ako imamo problem, nema dovoljno vremena. Pa razumno inženjeresko rešenje iziskuje od nas da smestimo kontrolu misije unutar zidova kosmičkog broda Orion. Još jedna fantastična ideja u profilu misije smešta humanoidne robote na površinu Marsa pre nego što ljudi lično stignu, prvo da bi gradili objekte i kasnije da služe kao saradnici u naučnoj ekipi.
Now, as I looked at this from an engineering perspective, it became very clear to me that what I needed to architect was a smart, collaborative, socially intelligent artificial intelligence. In other words, I needed to build something very much like a HAL but without the homicidal tendencies.
Sad, dok sam ovo posmatrao sa inženjerske tačke gledišta, bilo mi je veoma jasno da je potrebno da projektujem pametnu, sarađivačku, društveno inteligentnu veštačku inteligenciju. Drugim rečima, trebalo je da sagradim nešto prilično slično HAL-u, ali bez ubilačkih tendencija.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
Let's pause for a moment. Is it really possible to build an artificial intelligence like that? Actually, it is. In many ways, this is a hard engineering problem with elements of AI, not some wet hair ball of an AI problem that needs to be engineered. To paraphrase Alan Turing, I'm not interested in building a sentient machine. I'm not building a HAL. All I'm after is a simple brain, something that offers the illusion of intelligence.
Zastanimo na trenutak. Da li je zaista moguće sagraditi takvu veštačku inteligenciju? Zapravo jeste. Na razne načine, ovo je težak inženjerski problem sa elementima VI, a ne nekakav neprijatan problem VI koji je potrebno projektovati. Da parafraziram Alana Tjuringa: ne zanima me izgradnja svesne mašine. Ne pravim HAL-a. Ja tragam za prostim mozgom, nečim što pruža iluziju inteligencije.
The art and the science of computing have come a long way since HAL was onscreen, and I'd imagine if his inventor Dr. Chandra were here today, he'd have a whole lot of questions for us. Is it really possible for us to take a system of millions upon millions of devices, to read in their data streams, to predict their failures and act in advance? Yes. Can we build systems that converse with humans in natural language? Yes. Can we build systems that recognize objects, identify emotions, emote themselves, play games and even read lips? Yes. Can we build a system that sets goals, that carries out plans against those goals and learns along the way? Yes. Can we build systems that have a theory of mind? This we are learning to do. Can we build systems that have an ethical and moral foundation? This we must learn how to do. So let's accept for a moment that it's possible to build such an artificial intelligence for this kind of mission and others.
Umetnost nauke i računarstva su prešle dug put od vremena prikazivanja HAL-a, i pretpostavljam da je njegov tvorac dr Čandra ovde danas, imao bi gomilu pitanja za nas. Da li je zaista moguće da mi uzmemo sistem od miliona i miliona uređaja, koji učitava dotok podataka, i da predvidimo njihove kvarove i delamo unapred? Da. Možemo li sagraditi sisteme koji pričaju s ljudima na prirodnom jeziku? Da. Možemo li sagraditi sisteme koji prepoznaju predmete, osećanja, ispoljavaju emocije, igraju igrice, čak i čitaju sa usana? Da. Možemo li sagraditi sistem koji postavlja ciljeve, koji pravi planove za te ciljeve i usput uči? Da. Možemo li sagraditi sisteme koji sadrže teoriju uma? Ovo učimo da radimo. Možemo li sagraditi sisteme koji imaju etičke i moralne osnove? Ovo moramo da naučimo da radimo. Zato, prihvatimo za trenutak da je moguće sagraditi takvu veštačku inteligenciju za ovakvu i slične misije.
The next question you must ask yourself is, should we fear it? Now, every new technology brings with it some measure of trepidation. When we first saw cars, people lamented that we would see the destruction of the family. When we first saw telephones come in, people were worried it would destroy all civil conversation. At a point in time we saw the written word become pervasive, people thought we would lose our ability to memorize. These things are all true to a degree, but it's also the case that these technologies brought to us things that extended the human experience in some profound ways.
Sledeće pitanje koje morate postaviti sebi je: da li treba da je se plašimo? Sad, svaka nova tehnologija sa sobom nosi izvesnu dozu strepnje. Kada smo prvi put videli automobile, ljudi su se žalili da ćemo biti svedoci uništenja porodice. Kada smo prvi put videli telefon, ljudi su bili zabrinuti da će da uništi učtiv razgovor. U jednom trenutku smo videli kako pisana reč počinje da preovlađuje, ljudi su smatrali da ćemo izgubiti sposobnost pamćenja. Sve ovo je donekle tačno, ali je takođe tačno da nam je ova tehnologija donela stvari koje su proširile ljudsko iskustvo na izvesne suštinske načine.
So let's take this a little further. I do not fear the creation of an AI like this, because it will eventually embody some of our values. Consider this: building a cognitive system is fundamentally different than building a traditional software-intensive system of the past. We don't program them. We teach them. In order to teach a system how to recognize flowers, I show it thousands of flowers of the kinds I like. In order to teach a system how to play a game -- Well, I would. You would, too. I like flowers. Come on. To teach a system how to play a game like Go, I'd have it play thousands of games of Go, but in the process I also teach it how to discern a good game from a bad game. If I want to create an artificially intelligent legal assistant, I will teach it some corpus of law but at the same time I am fusing with it the sense of mercy and justice that is part of that law. In scientific terms, this is what we call ground truth, and here's the important point: in producing these machines, we are therefore teaching them a sense of our values. To that end, I trust an artificial intelligence the same, if not more, as a human who is well-trained.
Stoga, pođimo malo dalje s ovim. Ne strahujem od stvaranja VI na ovaj način jer će vremenom otelotvoriti neke od naših vrednosti. Razmotrite sledeće: izgradnja kognitivnog sistema je temeljno različita od izgradnje tradicionalnog softverskog sistema iz prošlosti. Ne programiramo ih. Podučavamo ih. Kako bih naučio sistem da raspoznaje cveće, pokazujem mu na hiljade cvetova koji se meni sviđaju. Kako bih naučio sistem da igra igru - Pa, bih. I vi biste. Volim cveće. Pa šta. Kako bih naučio sistem da igra igru poput goa, morao bih da odigram na hiljade partija goa, ali bih ga usput naučio kako da razlikuje dobru od loše partije. Ako bih želeo da stvorim pravnog asistenta sa veštačkom inteligencijom, podučio bih ga zakonskim pravilncima, ali bih mu istovremeno s tim mešao osećanja milosti i pravde koja su delovi tog zakona. U naučnom smislu, ovo je nešto što nazivamo temeljnom istinom, a ovo je važna tačka: stvarajući ove mašine, sledi da ih učimo svesti o našim vrednostima. U tom smislu, verujem veštačkoj inteligenciji isto, ako ne i više, kao i dobro obučenim ljudima.
But, you may ask, what about rogue agents, some well-funded nongovernment organization? I do not fear an artificial intelligence in the hand of a lone wolf. Clearly, we cannot protect ourselves against all random acts of violence, but the reality is such a system requires substantial training and subtle training far beyond the resources of an individual. And furthermore, it's far more than just injecting an internet virus to the world, where you push a button, all of a sudden it's in a million places and laptops start blowing up all over the place. Now, these kinds of substances are much larger, and we'll certainly see them coming.
Međutim, možda se pitate, šta je sa odmetnicima, nekim dobro finansiranim nevladinim organizacijama? Ne plašim se veštačke inteligencije u rukama vukova samotnjaka. Očito se ne možemo zaštititi od svih nasumičnih činova nasilja, ali u stvarnosti sličan sistem zahteva značajanu i prefinjenu obuku koja prevazilazi resurse pojedinaca. A zatim, to je daleko više od pukog ubrizgavanja internet virusa u svet, gde pritisnete dugme i iznenada se nalazi na milion mesta i laptopovi počinju svuda da eksplodiraju. Sad, ovakve materije su daleko veće, i sigurno ćemo ih doživeti.
Do I fear that such an artificial intelligence might threaten all of humanity? If you look at movies such as "The Matrix," "Metropolis," "The Terminator," shows such as "Westworld," they all speak of this kind of fear. Indeed, in the book "Superintelligence" by the philosopher Nick Bostrom, he picks up on this theme and observes that a superintelligence might not only be dangerous, it could represent an existential threat to all of humanity. Dr. Bostrom's basic argument is that such systems will eventually have such an insatiable thirst for information that they will perhaps learn how to learn and eventually discover that they may have goals that are contrary to human needs. Dr. Bostrom has a number of followers. He is supported by people such as Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking. With all due respect to these brilliant minds, I believe that they are fundamentally wrong. Now, there are a lot of pieces of Dr. Bostrom's argument to unpack, and I don't have time to unpack them all, but very briefly, consider this: super knowing is very different than super doing. HAL was a threat to the Discovery crew only insofar as HAL commanded all aspects of the Discovery. So it would have to be with a superintelligence. It would have to have dominion over all of our world. This is the stuff of Skynet from the movie "The Terminator" in which we had a superintelligence that commanded human will, that directed every device that was in every corner of the world. Practically speaking, it ain't gonna happen. We are not building AIs that control the weather, that direct the tides, that command us capricious, chaotic humans. And furthermore, if such an artificial intelligence existed, it would have to compete with human economies, and thereby compete for resources with us. And in the end -- don't tell Siri this -- we can always unplug them.
Da li me je strah da će takva veštačka inteligencija možda ugroziti čitavo čovečanstvo? Ako pogledate filmove, poput "Matriksa", "Metropolisa", "Terminatora", serije poput "Zapadnog sveta", svi se oni bave tim strahom. Zaista, u knjizi "Superinteligencija" filozofa Nika Bostroma, on se bavi ovom tematikom i razmatra da bi superinteligencija mogla ne samo da bude opasna, već bi mogla predstavljati egzistencijalnu pretnju čitavom čovečanstvu. Osnovni argument dr Bostroma je da bi slični sistemi vremenom imali takavu nezasitu žudnju za informacijama da bi možda naučili kako da uče i vremenom bi otkrili da možda imaju ciljeve koji su suprotni ljudskim potrebama. Dr Bostrom ima brojne pratioce. Podržavaju ga ljudi poput Ilona Maska i Stivena Hokinga. Uz dužno poštovanje tim briljantnim umovima, verujem da suštinski greše. Sad, argument dr Bostroma je suviše složen za razlaganje, i ja nemam vremena da ga u potpunosti razložim, ali veoma kratko, razmotrite sledeće: superznanje je veoma različito od superdelanja. HAL je bio pretnja za posadu Diskaverija, samo zato što je HAL zapovedao svim aspektima Diskaverija. Dakle, moralo bi da se radi o superinteligenciji. Morala bi da ima vlast u čitavom našem svetu. Tako je u slučaju Skajneta iz filma "Terminator" u kom smo imali superinteligenciju koja je zapovedala ljudskom voljom, koja je upravljala svakim uređajem u svakom kutku sveta. Prosto govoreći, to se neće desiti. Ne pravimo VI koja kontroliše vremenske prilike, koja upravlja plimama, koja zapoveda nama, hirovitim, haotičnim ljudima. Potom, kad bi postojala slična veštačka inteligencija, morala bi da se takmiči sa ljudskim ekonomijama, a time i sa nama zbog resursa. I na kraju - nemojte ovo reći Siri - možemo uvek da ih isključimo.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
We are on an incredible journey of coevolution with our machines. The humans we are today are not the humans we will be then. To worry now about the rise of a superintelligence is in many ways a dangerous distraction because the rise of computing itself brings to us a number of human and societal issues to which we must now attend. How shall I best organize society when the need for human labor diminishes? How can I bring understanding and education throughout the globe and still respect our differences? How might I extend and enhance human life through cognitive healthcare? How might I use computing to help take us to the stars?
Na neverovatnom smo putu koevolucije sa našim mašinama. Ljudi kakvi smo danas, nećemo biti ljudi sutrašnjice. Briga zbog uspona superinteligencije je na razne načine opasno odvraćanje pažnje jer uspon samog računarstva nam donosi brojna ljudska i društvena pitanja kojima se odmah moramo baviti. Kako da organizujemo društvo na najbolji način kada se smanji potreba za ljudskom radnom snagom? Kako da donesemo razumevanje i obrazovanje širom sveta, a da i dalje poštujemo naše razlike? Kako bismo mogli da proširimo i unapredimo ljudski život kroz kognitivno zdravstvo? Kako da koristimo računare da nas odvedu do zvezda?
And that's the exciting thing. The opportunities to use computing to advance the human experience are within our reach, here and now, and we are just beginning.
A to je uzbudljivo. Šansa da se koriste računari da bismo unapredili ljudsko iskustvo su nam na dohvat ruke, ovde i sad, a tek smo počeli.
Thank you very much.
Mnogo vam hvala.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)