This story begins in 1985, when at age 22, I became the World Chess Champion after beating Anatoly Karpov. Earlier that year, I played what is called simultaneous exhibition against 32 of the world's best chess-playing machines in Hamburg, Germany. I won all the games, and then it was not considered much of a surprise that I could beat 32 computers at the same time. To me, that was the golden age.
Zgodba se začne leta 1985, ko sem pri 22 letih postal Svetovni šahovski prvak, s tem ko sem premagal Anatolija Karpova. Prej tega leta, sem igral tako imenovano ekshibicijsko simultanko proti 32 najboljšim strojem za igranje šaha na svetu v nemškem Hamburgu. Zmagal sem vse igre in tedaj ni bilo prav veliko presenečenje, da sem lahko hkrati premagal 32 računalnikov. Zame je bila to zlata doba.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
Machines were weak, and my hair was strong.
Stroji so bili šibki in moji lasje so bili močni.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
Just 12 years later, I was fighting for my life against just one computer in a match called by the cover of "Newsweek" "The Brain's Last Stand." No pressure.
Samo 12 let kasneje sem se boril za svoje življenje proti samo enemu računalniku v dvoboju, ki so ga na naslovnici tednika "Newsweek" poimenovali "Zadnja utrdba možganov." Nobenega pritiska.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
From mythology to science fiction, human versus machine has been often portrayed as a matter of life and death. John Henry, called the steel-driving man in the 19th century African American folk legend, was pitted in a race against a steam-powered hammer bashing a tunnel through mountain rock. John Henry's legend is a part of a long historical narrative pitting humanity versus technology. And this competitive rhetoric is standard now. We are in a race against the machines, in a fight or even in a war. Jobs are being killed off. People are being replaced as if they had vanished from the Earth. It's enough to think that the movies like "The Terminator" or "The Matrix" are nonfiction.
Od mitologije do znanstvene fantastike je bil boj med strojem in človekom pogosto prikazan kot boj za življenje ali smrt. John Henry, človek, ki je z jeklom vrtal luknje v afriško-ameriški ljudski legendi iz 19. stoletja, je tekmoval proti parno gnanemu kladivu v kopanju tunela skozi kamnito goro. Legenda o Johnu Henryju je del dolgega zgodovinskega nareka, ki podpihuje boj človeka s tehnologijo. In ta tekmovalna retorika je sedaj čisto normalna. Nahajamo se v tekmi proti strojem, v boju, če ne celo vojni. Ukinjajo se službe. Ljudi se menja, kot da bi izginili iz obličja Zemlje. Dovolj je že razmišljati o tem, da filmi kot so "Terminator" ali "Matrica" niso izmišljeni.
There are very few instances of an arena where the human body and mind can compete on equal terms with a computer or a robot. Actually, I wish there were a few more. Instead, it was my blessing and my curse to literally become the proverbial man in the man versus machine competition that everybody is still talking about. In the most famous human-machine competition since John Henry, I played two matches against the IBM supercomputer, Deep Blue. Nobody remembers that I won the first match --
Obstaja zelo malo področij, kjer lahko človeško telo in možgani tekmujejo pod enakimi pogoji proti računalniku ali robotu. Pravzaprav, želim si, da bi jih bilo več. Namesto tega je bil moj privilegij in moje prekletstvo, da sem dejansko postal pregovorna oseba v boju med človekom in strojem, o katerem še danes vsi govorijo. V najbolj slavnem tekmovanju med človekom in strojem od Johna Henryja dalje, sem igral dva dvoboja proti IBM-ovem super-računalniku, Deep Blue. Nihče se ne spomni, da sem zmagal v prvem dvoboju -
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
(Applause)
(Aplavz)
In Philadelphia, before losing the rematch the following year in New York. But I guess that's fair. There is no day in history, special calendar entry for all the people who failed to climb Mt. Everest before Sir Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay made it to the top. And in 1997, I was still the world champion when chess computers finally came of age. I was Mt. Everest, and Deep Blue reached the summit. I should say of course, not that Deep Blue did it, but its human creators -- Anantharaman, Campbell, Hoane, Hsu. Hats off to them. As always, machine's triumph was a human triumph, something we tend to forget when humans are surpassed by our own creations.
v Filadelfiji, preden sem naslednje leto izgubil revanšo v New Yorku. Ampak verjetno je to pošteno. Ne obstaja dan v zgodovini, poseben praznik na koledarju za vse ljudi, ki niso priplezali na Mt. Everest, preden Sir Edmund Hillary in Tenzing Norgay nista osvojila vrha. In leta 1997 sem bil še vedno svetovni prvak, ko so šahovski računalniki končno odrasli. Jaz sem bil Mt. Everest in Deep Blue se je povzpel na vrh. Moral bi seveda reči, da ni bil Deep Blue tisti, ampak njegovi človeški stvaritelji - Anantharaman, Campbell, Hoane, Hsu. Kapo dol pred njimi. Kot vedno, strojeva zmaga je bila človeška zmaga, nekaj, kar radi pozabljamo, ko ljudi prehitijo njihove lastne kreacije.
Deep Blue was victorious, but was it intelligent? No, no it wasn't, at least not in the way Alan Turing and other founders of computer science had hoped. It turned out that chess could be crunched by brute force, once hardware got fast enough and algorithms got smart enough. Although by the definition of the output, grandmaster-level chess, Deep Blue was intelligent. But even at the incredible speed, 200 million positions per second, Deep Blue's method provided little of the dreamed-of insight into the mysteries of human intelligence.
Deep Blue je zmagal, pa je bil inteligenten? Ne, ni bil, vsaj ne na način kot so upali Alan Turing in drugi ustanovitelji računalništva. Izkazalo se je, da je mogoče šah obvladati s surovo močjo, ko je enkrat strojna oprema postala dovolj hitra in so algoritmi postali dovolj pametni. Vendar po definiciji rezultata, šahovski velemojster, je bil Deep Blue inteligenten. Ampak celo pri neverjetni hitrosti, 200 milijonov pozicij na sekundo, je njegova metoda zelo malo prispevala k vpogledu v skrivnosti človeške inteligence.
Soon, machines will be taxi drivers and doctors and professors, but will they be "intelligent?" I would rather leave these definitions to the philosophers and to the dictionary. What really matters is how we humans feel about living and working with these machines.
Kmalu bodo stroji postali taksisti in zdravniki in profesorji, ampak ali bodo "inteligentni?" Te definicije bi raje prepustil filozofom in slovarju. Kar je resnično pomembno, je, kako se mi ljudje počutimo ob bivanju in delu skupaj s temi stroji.
When I first met Deep Blue in 1996 in February, I had been the world champion for more than 10 years, and I had played 182 world championship games and hundreds of games against other top players in other competitions. I knew what to expect from my opponents and what to expect from myself. I was used to measure their moves and to gauge their emotional state by watching their body language and looking into their eyes.
Ko sem prvič spoznal Deep Blue, februarja leta 1996, sem bil svetovni prvak že več kot 10 let, odigral sem 182 iger za svetovno prvenstvo in stotine iger proti drugim velemojstrom v drugih tekmovanjih. Vedel sem, kaj pričakovati od svojih nasprotnikov in kaj pričakovati od sebe. Navajen sem bil vrednotiti njihove poteze in ocenjevati njihovo čustveno stanje z opazovanjem njihove telesne govorice in gledanjem v njihove oči.
And then I sat across the chessboard from Deep Blue. I immediately sensed something new, something unsettling. You might experience a similar feeling the first time you ride in a driverless car or the first time your new computer manager issues an order at work. But when I sat at that first game, I couldn't be sure what is this thing capable of. Technology can advance in leaps, and IBM had invested heavily. I lost that game. And I couldn't help wondering, might it be invincible? Was my beloved game of chess over? These were human doubts, human fears, and the only thing I knew for sure was that my opponent Deep Blue had no such worries at all.
In potem sem sedel za šahovnico nasproti Deep Blue. Takoj sem zaznal nekaj novega, nekaj vznemirjajočega. Nekaj podobnega lahko doživite, ko se prvič peljete v avtu brez voznika, ali ko vaš računalniški delovodja prvič izda delovni nalog. Ampak ko sem sedel k tej prvi igri, nisem mogel biti prepričan, česa je ta stvar zmožna. Tehnologija se lahko razvija v skokih in IBM je veliko vložil. Izgubil sem to igro. In neizbežno sem se spraševal, je možno, da je nepremagljiv? Pomeni to konec za mojo ljubo igro šaha? Porajala se mi je človeška negotovost, človeški strah, in edina stvar, o kateri sem bil prepričan, je bila, da moj nasprotnik Deep Blue nima takih skrbi.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
I fought back after this devastating blow to win the first match, but the writing was on the wall. I eventually lost to the machine but I didn't suffer the fate of John Henry who won but died with his hammer in his hand. [John Henry Died with a Hammer in His Hand Palmer C. Hayden] [The Museum of African American Art, Los Angeles] It turned out that the world of chess still wanted to have a human chess champion. And even today, when a free chess app on the latest mobile phone is stronger than Deep Blue, people are still playing chess, even more than ever before. Doomsayers predicted that nobody would touch the game that could be conquered by the machine, and they were wrong, proven wrong, but doomsaying has always been a popular pastime when it comes to technology.
Boril sem se nazaj po tem uničujočem udarcu, da bi zmagal prvo igro, ampak rezultat je bil že znan. Na koncu sem izgubil proti stroju, ampak ni me doletela usoda Johna Henryja, ki je zmagal, a umrl s kladivom v roki. Izkazalo se je, da je svet šaha še vedno želel imeti človeškega prvaka. In celo danes, ko je brezplačna aplikacija na najnovejšem mobilniku močnejša od Deep Blue, ljudje še vedno igrajo šah, in celo več kot kdajkoli prej. Ciniki so napovedali, da se igre po tem ne bo nihče več dotaknil, ko jo bo lahko osvojil stroj, a motili so se, dokazano motili, a napovedovanje konca je bilo vedno popularen hobi, ko govorimo o tehnologiji.
What I learned from my own experience is that we must face our fears if we want to get the most out of our technology, and we must conquer those fears if we want to get the best out of our humanity. While licking my wounds, I got a lot of inspiration from my battles against Deep Blue. As the old Russian saying goes, if you can't beat them, join them. Then I thought, what if I could play with a computer -- together with a computer at my side, combining our strengths, human intuition plus machine's calculation, human strategy, machine tactics, human experience, machine's memory. Could it be the perfect game ever played?
Iz svoje izkušnje sem se naučil, da se moramo soočiti s svojimi strahovi, če želimo kar najbolje izkoristiti našo tehnologijo, in te strahove moramo premagati, če želimo kar najbolje izkoristiti našo humanost. Med tem ko sem si lizal rane, sem dobil veliko navdiha iz mojih bojev proti Deep Blue. Kot pravi stari ruski pregovor, če jih ne moreš premagati, se jim pridruži. Potem sem pomislil, kaj če bi lahko igral skupaj z računalnikom - z njim ob mojem boku, z združenimi močmi, človeška intuicija in strojna kalkulacija, človeška strategija, strojna taktika, človeške izkušnje, strojni spomin. Bi lahko odigrala popolno igro?
My idea came to life in 1998 under the name of Advanced Chess when I played this human-plus-machine competition against another elite player. But in this first experiment, we both failed to combine human and machine skills effectively. Advanced Chess found its home on the internet, and in 2005, a so-called freestyle chess tournament produced a revelation. A team of grandmasters and top machines participated, but the winners were not grandmasters, not a supercomputer. The winners were a pair of amateur American chess players operating three ordinary PCs at the same time. Their skill of coaching their machines effectively counteracted the superior chess knowledge of their grandmaster opponents and much greater computational power of others. And I reached this formulation. A weak human player plus a machine plus a better process is superior to a very powerful machine alone, but more remarkably, is superior to a strong human player plus machine and an inferior process. This convinced me that we would need better interfaces to help us coach our machines towards more useful intelligence.
Moja ideja se je uresničila leta 1998 pod imenom Napredni šah, ko sem igral kot človek-plus-stroj proti drugemu elitnemu igralcu. Vendar v tem prvem eksperimentu, je obema spodletelo učinkovito združiti človeške in strojne spretnosti. Napredni šah je našel svoj dom na internetu in leta 2005 je tako imenovani freestyle šahovski turnir prinesel razodetje. Ekipa velemojstrov in najboljših strojev je sodelovala na njem, vendar zmagovalci niso bili velemojstri, niti super-računalnik. Zmagovalca sta bila dva Ameriška amaterska igralca šaha, ki sta delala s tremi navadnimi osebnimi računalniki naenkrat. Njuna spretnost, kako učiti njune stroje, je dejansko prevladala nad superiornim znanjem šaha njunih velemojstrskih nasprotnikov in veliko večjo računsko močjo drugih. In prišel sem do sledeče formulacije. Šibak človeški igralec plus stroj plus boljši proces je močnejši od samostojnega zelo močnega stroja, a še bolj neverjetno, je močnejši od močnega človeškega igralca plus stroj in slabšega procesa. To me je prepričalo, da bomo potrebovali boljše vmesnike, s katerimi bomo učili naše stroje za dosego bolj uporabne inteligence.
Human plus machine isn't the future, it's the present. Everybody that's used online translation to get the gist of a news article from a foreign newspaper, knowing its far from perfect. Then we use our human experience to make sense out of that, and then the machine learns from our corrections. This model is spreading and investing in medical diagnosis, security analysis. The machine crunches data, calculates probabilities, gets 80 percent of the way, 90 percent, making it easier for analysis and decision-making of the human party. But you are not going to send your kids to school in a self-driving car with 90 percent accuracy, even with 99 percent. So we need a leap forward to add a few more crucial decimal places.
Človek plus stroj ni prihodnost, to je sedanjost. Vsak, ki je uporabil spletni prevajalnik, da bi izluščil, kaj piše v časopisnem članku iz tujega časopisa, vedoč, da je daleč od popolnega. Potem uporabimo človeške izkušnje, da stvari povežemo v smisel in potem se stroj uči iz naših popravkov. Ta model se širi v medicinsko diagnostiko, varnostno analitiko. Stroj melje podatke, izračunava verjetnosti, opravi delo do 80 %, 90 %, olajša analizo in odločanje človeškemu sodelavcu. Ampak svojih otrok ne boste poslali v šolo s samovozečim avtomobilom, ki je 90 odstotkov natančen, ali celo 99 odstotkov. Zato potrebujemo skok naprej, da dodamo še nekaj ključnih decimalk.
Twenty years after my match with Deep Blue, second match, this sensational "The Brain's Last Stand" headline has become commonplace as intelligent machines move in every sector, seemingly every day. But unlike in the past, when machines replaced farm animals, manual labor, now they are coming after people with college degrees and political influence. And as someone who fought machines and lost, I am here to tell you this is excellent, excellent news. Eventually, every profession will have to feel these pressures or else it will mean humanity has ceased to make progress. We don't get to choose when and where technological progress stops. We cannot slow down. In fact, we have to speed up. Our technology excels at removing difficulties and uncertainties from our lives, and so we must seek out ever more difficult, ever more uncertain challenges. Machines have calculations. We have understanding. Machines have instructions. We have purpose. Machines have objectivity. We have passion. We should not worry about what our machines can do today. Instead, we should worry about what they still cannot do today, because we will need the help of the new, intelligent machines to turn our grandest dreams into reality. And if we fail, if we fail, it's not because our machines are too intelligent, or not intelligent enough. If we fail, it's because we grew complacent and limited our ambitions. Our humanity is not defined by any skill, like swinging a hammer or even playing chess.
Dvajset let po mojem obračunu z Deep Blue, drugem obračunu, je naslovnica "Zadnja utrdba možganov" postala nekaj vsakdanjega, ko inteligentni stroji vdirajo v vse sektorje, praktično vsak dan. Vendar v nasprotju z zgodovino, ko so stroji zamenjali domače živali, ročno delo, se sedaj lotevajo ljudi z univerzitetno izobrazbo in političnim vplivom. In kot nekdo, ki se je boril proti strojem in izgubil, sem tu, da vam povem, da je to odlična, odlična novica. Sčasoma bo vsak poklic občutil ta pritisk, v nasprotnem primeru pomeni, da je človeštvo prenehalo napredovati. Nimamo vpliva na to, kdaj in kje se tehnološki napredek ustavi. Ne moremo ga upočasniti. Pravzaprav ga moramo pospešiti. Naša tehnologija blesti pri zmanjševanju težavnosti in negotovosti v naših življenjih, zato moramo poiskati še bolj zahtevne, še bolj tvegane izzive. Stroji imajo kalkulacije. Mi imamo razumevanje. Stroji imajo navodila. Mi imamo namen. Stroji imajo objektivnost. Mi imamo strast. Ne sme nas skrbeti, kaj lahko naši stroji naredijo danes. Namesto tega nas mora skrbeti, česa danes še ne zmorejo narediti, ker bomo potrebovali pomoč novih, inteligentnih strojev, da uresničimo naše največje sanje. In če nam spodleti, če nam spodleti, nam ne bo zato, ker so naši stroji preveč pametni, ali ker niso dovolj pametni. Če nam spodleti, bo to zato, ker smo postali samozadovoljni in omejili naše ambicije. Naša človeškost ni definirana s katerokoli veščino, kot je vihtenje kladiva ali celo igranje šaha.
There's one thing only a human can do. That's dream. So let us dream big.
Le eno stvar lahko naredi le človek. Da sanja. Torej sanjajmo velike sanje.
Thank you.
Hvala.
(Applause)
(Aplavz)