How will we be remembered in 200 years? I happen to live in a little town, Princeton, in New Jersey, which every year celebrates the great event in Princeton history: the Battle of Princeton, which was, in fact, a very important battle. It was the first battle that George Washington won, in fact, and was pretty much of a turning point in the war of independence. It happened 225 years ago. It was actually a terrible disaster for Princeton. The town was burned down; it was in the middle of winter, and it was a very, very severe winter. And about a quarter of all the people in Princeton died that winter from hunger and cold, but nobody remembers that. What they remember is, of course, the great triumph, that the Brits were beaten, and we won, and that the country was born. And so I agree very emphatically that the pain of childbirth is not remembered. It's the child that's remembered. And that's what we're going through at this time.
200 年後,人們對我們的印象會是什麼? 我碰巧住在紐澤西州,普林斯頓這個小鎮上, 每年都會慶祝曾經發生在普林斯頓的重大事件: 普林斯頓戰役,是非常重要的一場戰役。 事實上這是喬治‧華盛頓贏得的第一場戰役, 也是獨立戰爭的重要轉捩點。 它發生於225年前。 對於普林斯頓而言是一場大災難。 這個鎮整個被燒掉了;當時正值冬季中期, 那是一個非常非常嚴峻的冬天。 普林斯頓約1/4的人們因為飢餓與寒冷而在這個冬天裡死去, 可是沒有人記得這件事。 當然,他們記得那個大勝利: 當英國打敗了,我們打勝了,於是這個國家誕生了。 所以我感到非常生氣,沒有人記得生小孩的痛, 大家只記得這個小孩。 今天我也打算這麼做。
I wanted to just talk for one minute about the future of biotechnology, because I think I know very little about that -- I'm not a biologist -- so everything I know about it can be said in one minute. (Laughter) What I'm saying is that we should follow the model that has been so successful with the electronic industry, that what really turned computers into a great success, in the world as a whole, is toys. As soon as computers became toys, when kids could come home and play with them, then the industry really took off. And that has to happen with biotech.
我將只花一分鐘來談生物科技的未來, 因為我知道的很少 -- 我不是一個生物學家 -- 所以我知道的東西大概一分鐘就講完了。 (笑聲) 我要說的是,我們應該仿效 電子工業成功的範例: 那將電腦變成世界上相當成功的一種玩具。 一旦電腦變成一種玩具, 當孩童們可以回家玩電腦時, 那時工業就真正成功了。這必須搭配生物科技才行。
There's a huge -- (Laughter) (Applause) -- there's a huge community of people in the world who are practical biologists, who are dog breeders, pigeon breeders, orchid breeders, rose breeders, people who handle biology with their hands, and who are dedicated to producing beautiful things, beautiful creatures, plants, animals, pets. These people will be empowered with biotech, and that will be an enormous positive step to acceptance of biotechnology. That will blow away a lot of the opposition. When people have this technology in their hands, you have a do-it-yourself biotech kit, grow your own -- grow your dog, grow your own cat. (Laughter) (Applause) Just buy the software, you design it. I won't say anymore, you can take it on from there. It's going to happen, and I think it has to happen before the technology becomes natural, becomes part of the human condition, something that everybody's familiar with and everybody accepts.
有很大的 -- (笑聲) (掌聲) 世界上有很大的一群人 他們是應用生物學家,他們是繁殖狗的人、 繁殖鴿子的人、繁殖蘭花的人、繁殖玫瑰花的人 -- 這些人用雙手去掌握生物學, 這些人致力於製造美麗的東西,美麗的生物: 植物、動物、寵物。這些人們能夠使用生物科技, 這將是 正面接受生物科技的一大進展。 這會將大部分的阻礙排除。 當人們能夠掌握這個技術時, 你會有個生物科技DIY工具,讓你自行種植 -- 種出你的狗,種出你的貓。 (笑聲) (掌聲) 只要買個軟體,你自己設計。我不再多說了, 從這邊開始你應該就能了解。它將會發生, 我想,這將會在科技變成自然的一部分前發生, 變成人們周遭的一部分, 某種大家都很熟悉也能接受的東西。
So, let's leave that aside. I want to talk about something quite different, which is what I know about, and that is astronomy. And I'm interested in searching for life in the universe. And it's open to us to introduce a new way of doing that, and that's what I'll talk about for 10 minutes, or whatever the time remains. The important fact is, that most of the real estate that's accessible to us -- I'm not talking about the stars, I'm talking about the solar system, the stuff that's within reach for spacecraft and within reach of our earthbound telescopes -- most of the real estate is very cold and very far from the Sun.
關於這個我們就說到這吧。 我想談一些不一樣的, 談談我所知道的東西,那就是天文學。 我對於在宇宙中找尋生命很有興趣。 對於提出不同的方式來作這件事也是相當開放的, 我將會花十分鐘左右來談這件事, 或者是我們還剩下的所有時間。 很重要的事實是,大部分的土地, 我們所能接觸到的 -- 我不是指所有的星球, 我指的是太陽系中,藉由太空梭能抵達的地方, 以及地面上天文望遠鏡能夠看見的地方。 大部分的土地是相當寒冷的,距離太陽也相當遙遠。
If you look at the solar system, as we know it today, it has a few planets close to the Sun. That's where we live. It has a fairly substantial number of asteroids between the orbit of the Earth out through -- to the orbit of Jupiter. The asteroids are a substantial amount of real estate, but not very large. And it's not very promising for life, since most of it consists of rock and metal, mostly rock. It's not only cold, but very dry. So the asteroids we don't have much hope for.
如果你看看我們現在所了解的太陽系, 只有少數行星接近太陽,接近我們目前居住的地方。 有相當大量的小行星 位於地球軌道與木星軌道之間。 這些小行星就是大量的土地, 但並不是真的很大。因為那並不適合生物居住, 因為大部分的成份是岩石和金屬,幾乎都是岩石。 那並不只是寒冷而已,還相當乾燥。 所以我們並不對這些小行星抱持太多希望。
There stand some interesting places a little further out: the moons of Jupiter and Saturn. Particularly, there's a place called Europa, which is -- Europa is one of the moons of Jupiter, where we see a very level ice surface, which looks as if it's floating on top of an ocean. So, we believe that on Europa there is, in fact, a deep ocean. And that makes it extraordinarily interesting as a place to explore. Ocean -- probably the most likely place for life to originate, just as it originated on the Earth. So we would love to explore Europa, to go down through the ice, find out who is swimming around in the ocean, whether there are fish or seaweed or sea monsters -- whatever there may be that's exciting --- or cephalopods. But that's hard to do. Unfortunately, the ice is thick. We don't know just how thick it is, probably miles thick, so it's very expensive and very difficult to go down there -- send down your submarine or whatever it is -- and explore. That's something we don't yet know how to do. There are plans to do it, but it's hard.
再遠一點的位置有些令人感興趣的行星, 就是木星和土星的月球們。 尤其是有個地方叫做Europa,那是 -- Europa 是木星的許多月球之一, 我們發現那兒的地表有一定含量的冰層, 看起來似乎是浮在海洋上。 所以我們相信在 Europa 上面有一個深海。 這讓它變得相當令人有興趣去探索的地方。 海洋 -- 大概是生命最有可能出現的地方, 正如地球上的生命源起一般。所以我們想要去探索Europa, 向下穿越那冰層, 看看海洋之下有誰在那兒游泳, 看看是否有魚或海藻或是海底怪物 -- 不論是什麼都很令人興奮 -- 或頭足類生物(烏賊、章魚等)。 但這是很困難的一件事。不幸的,那冰層相當厚。 我們不知道究竟有多厚,也許會有幾英哩厚, 所以這花費將會相當昂貴,也相當困難去抵達那下面 -- 不論是將潛水艇送下去或任何方式 -- 去進行探索。 這是目前我們還不知道該如何進行的一件事。 我們擬了許多計畫來作這件事,但這相當困難。
Go out a bit further, you'll find that beyond the orbit of Neptune, way out, far from the Sun, that's where the real estate really begins. You'll find millions or trillions or billions of objects which, in what we call the Kuiper Belt or the Oort Cloud -- these are clouds of small objects which appear as comets when they fall close to the Sun. Mostly, they just live out there in the cold of the outer solar system, but they are biologically very interesting indeed, because they consist primarily of ice with other minerals, which are just the right ones for developing life. So if life could be established out there, it would have all the essentials -- chemistry and sunlight -- everything that's needed.
再往遠處一點,你會在海王星的軌道後面發現, 在遠離太陽的地方,有著許多土地的出現。 你可以發現有上百萬或上億甚至上兆的物體, 在我們稱之為柯伊伯帶(Kuiper belt)以及歐特雲(Oort cloud)的地方 -- 有一大群小型物體,當它們靠近太陽的時候, 我們稱之為彗星的東西。它們大部分都存在於這邊, 在太陽系外圍這個冰冷的地方, 但就生物學得觀點而言,它們相當值得注意, 因為它們的主要成份是冰以及其他礦物質, 這些正是生物組成的原料。 所以如果生命能夠在這兒被創造出來, 這兒就有生命所需的基本物質:化學物質以及陽光, 生命所需要的一切。
So, what I'm proposing is that there is where we should be looking for life, rather than on Mars, although Mars is, of course, also a very promising and interesting place. But we can look outside, very cheaply and in a simple fashion. And that's what I'm going to talk about. There is a -- imagine that life originated on Europa, and it was sitting in the ocean for billions of years. It's quite likely that it would move out of the ocean onto the surface, just as it did on the Earth. Staying in the ocean and evolving in the ocean for 2 billion years, finally came out onto the land. And then of course it had great -- much greater freedom, and a much greater variety of creatures developed on the land than had ever been possible in the ocean. And the step from the ocean to the land was not easy, but it happened.
所以我的論點是 除了在火星上以外,還有許多我們可以找尋生命的地方, 雖然火星也是一個相當有希望也很吸引人的地方。 但我們可以往外看,那比較低劣的土地,很簡略的樣式。 這就是我所想要講的東西。 我能想像在Europa上孕育出來的生命形體, 它已經存在於海洋中幾十億年。 它很可能會從海底移動到陸地上來, 就像是地球上的演進一般。 在海中演化了廿億年, 最後終於出現在陸地上。之後有著相當大的 -- 更大的自由度,更多不同種類的生物, 在陸地上發展出比海中更多種類的生物。 由海中演化至陸地相當不容易,但它確實發生了。
Now, if life had originated on Europa in the ocean, it could also have moved out onto the surface. There wouldn't have been any air there -- it's a vacuum. It is out in the cold, but it still could have come. You can imagine that the plants growing up like kelp through cracks in the ice, growing on the surface. What would they need in order to grow on the surface? They'd need, first of all, to have a thick skin to protect themselves from losing water through the skin. So they would have to have something like a reptilian skin. But better -- what is more important is that they would have to concentrate sunlight. The sunlight in Jupiter, on the satellites of Jupiter, is 25 times fainter than it is here, since Jupiter is five times as far from the Sun. So they would have to have -- these creatures, which I call sunflowers, which I imagine living on the surface of Europa, would have to have either lenses or mirrors to concentrate sunlight, so they could keep themselves warm on the surface. Otherwise, they would be at a temperature of minus 150, which is certainly not favorable for developing life, at least of the kind we know. But if they just simply could grow, like leaves, little lenses and mirrors to concentrate sunlight, then they could keep warm on the surface. They could enjoy all the benefits of the sunlight and have roots going down into the ocean; life then could flourish much more. So, why not look? Of course, it's not very likely that there's life on the surface of Europa. None of these things is likely, but my, my philosophy is, look for what's detectable, not for what's probable.
現在,如果在Europa的海中孕育出了生命, 它也可能會漸漸移動到陸地上來。 那裡沒有任何空氣,那是真空狀態。 那是相當寒冷的地方,但仍然可能會發生。 你可以想像植物像是巨大海藻一樣生長著, 穿越冰層的縫隙,生長出地表。 它們需要什麼才能夠長出地表來呢? 首先它們需要有相當厚的皮膚來保護它們, 以免皮膚失去水分。 所以它們必須要有類似爬蟲類的皮膚。 但更重要的是, 它們必須要有能力聚集陽光。 在木星的陽光,在木星的人造衛星上的陽光, 比地球昏暗25倍, 因為木星距離太陽比地球遠5倍。 所以將有這些生物,我稱之為向日葵, 我所想像生存於Europa表面的生物,需要有著 透鏡或鏡子來聚集陽光, 這樣才能讓它們在地表保持溫暖。 否則它們將會生存於零下150度, 那絕對不適合生命居住, 至少對我們所知道的生命來說是如此。 但如果它們能夠簡單的長出類似葉子的東西, 小小的透鏡或鏡子來聚集陽光, 那麼它們就可以在地表保持溫暖, 它們可以享受陽光的好處, 然後將根部深入到海洋之中 -- 生命就可以更加茂盛的存在。 所以,何不去看看 -- 當然生命存在於 Europa 表面的機會並不高。 那些東西的可能性都不高,但是我, 我的邏輯是去找尋能被找到的東西,而不是可能會發生的事情。
There's a long history in astronomy of unlikely things turning out to be there. And I mean, the finest example of that was radio astronomy as a whole. This was -- originally, when radio astronomy began, Mr. Jansky, at the Bell labs, detected radio waves coming from the sky. And the regular astronomers were scornful about this. They said, "It's all right, you can detect radio waves from the Sun, but the Sun is the only object in the universe that's close enough and bright enough actually to be detectable. You can easily calculate that radio waves from the Sun are fairly faint, and everything else in the universe is millions of times further away, so it certainly will not be detectable. So there's no point in looking." And that, of course, that set back the progress of radio astronomy by about 20 years. Since there was nothing there, you might as well not look. Well, of course, as soon as anybody did look, which was after about 20 years, when radio astronomy really took off. Because it turned out the universe is absolutely full of all kinds of wonderful things radiating in the radio spectrum, much brighter than the Sun. So, the same thing could be true for this kind of life, which I'm talking about, on cold objects: that it could in fact be very abundant all over the universe, and it's not been detected just because we haven't taken the trouble to look.
很久以來就有一些在宇宙中本來不可能發生的事情 結果卻發生了。我是指, 最好的例子是無線電天文學。 無線電天文學剛出現的時候, 貝爾實驗室的Jansky偵測到天空傳來的無線電波, 而一些專業的天文學家對此事嘲笑不已。 他們說,沒錯,你可以收到從太陽傳來的無線電波, 但是太陽是整個宇宙中唯一足夠靠近的物體 並且夠光亮才會被偵測到。你可以輕易算出 由太陽傳來的無線電波相當微弱, 而宇宙中其他物體的距離比這個要遠上幾百萬倍, 所以絕對不可能被偵測到。 所以偵測無線電波是毫無意義的。 於是,這讓無線電天文學的發展 延遲了20年。 因為如果那兒沒東西,你就不會想要去找。 而在有人真的去找尋的時候, 已經過了大概20年的時間了, 當時無線電天文學開始受到重視。因為後來發現到 整個宇宙確實充滿著各種不可思議的東西 以無線電的波長發送著無線電波,它們甚至比太陽還光亮。 所以同樣的,我所談到的能夠在冰冷的星球上生存的生命 也可能確實存在的:事實上, 它可能充斥在宇宙中,而還沒被發現的原因 可能只是因為我們不願意突破困難去尋找。
So, the last thing I want to talk about is how to detect it. There is something called pit lamping. That's the phrase which I learned from my son George, who is there in the audience. You take -- that's a Canadian expression. If you happen to want to hunt animals at night, you take a miner's lamp, which is a pit lamp. You strap it onto your forehead, so you can see the reflection in the eyes of the animal. So, if you go out at night, you shine a flashlight, the animals are bright. You see the red glow in their eyes, which is the reflection of the flashlight. And then, if you're one of these unsporting characters, you shoot the animals and take them home. And of course, that spoils the game for the other hunters who hunt in the daytime, so in Canada that's illegal. In New Zealand, it's legal, because the New Zealand farmers use this as a way of getting rid of rabbits, because the rabbits compete with the sheep in New Zealand. So, the farmers go out at night with heavily armed jeeps, and shine the headlights, and anything that doesn't look like a sheep, you shoot. (Laughter)
所以,最後我想談的是要怎麼去發現它。 有件事叫做pit lamping。 這個名詞是我從我的兒子喬治身上學來的, 他正坐在聽眾席裡。 你可以用 -- 這是加拿大人的說法: 如果你突然想在晚上去打獵, 你拿一個礦工的燈,那叫做坑燈(pit lamp)。 你把它戴在額頭上來,這樣你可以看見 動物眼睛裡反射出來的光線。所以如果你在晚上出去 你打開手電筒,動物的位置就會很明顯。 你可以看見它們眼中閃爍著紅光, 那就是反射手電筒的光。 如果你剛好是一個不守規則的人, 你就可以射殺它們,把它們帶回家。 當然,對於大部分只在白天打獵的獵人來說, 這是違反遊戲規則的。 所以在加拿大這是違法的。在紐西蘭卻是合法的, 因為紐西蘭的農夫用這種方法來除去兔子, 因為在紐西蘭兔子會騷擾綿羊。 所以農夫們晚上出門 開著重武裝的吉普車,開亮頭燈, 獵殺任何不像綿羊的東西。 (笑聲)
So I have proposed to apply the same trick to looking for life in the universe. That if these creatures who are living on cold surfaces -- either on Europa, or further out, anywhere where you can live on a cold surface -- those creatures must be provided with reflectors. In order to concentrate sunlight, they have to have lenses and mirrors -- in order to keep themselves warm. And then, when you shine sunlight at them, the sunlight will be reflected back, just as it is in the eyes of an animal. So these creatures will be bright against the cold surroundings. And the further out you go in this, away from the Sun, the more powerful this reflection will be. So actually, this method of hunting for life gets stronger and stronger as you go further away, because the optical reflectors have to be more powerful so the reflected light shines out even more in contrast against the dark background. So as you go further away from the Sun, this becomes more and more powerful. So, in fact, you can look for these creatures with telescopes from the Earth. Why aren't we doing it? Simply because nobody thought of it yet.
所以我建議使用相同的手法 用來在宇宙中探索生命。 也就是說,生活在冰冷地表的生物 -- 不論是 Europa 或更遙遠的地方,任何可能生存於 冰冷地表 -- 那些生物一定會帶有反射物體。 為了要集中陽光,它們必須要有透鏡和鏡子 才能夠保持自身溫暖。 於是當你將陽光照在它們身上時, 陽光會被反射回來 正如動物眼中反射的光線一般。 所以這些生物相對於冰冷的環境而言會變得很光亮。 對於更遠的地方,那些遠離太陽的地方。 反射能力會更強。所以事實上, 這種獵殺動物的方法, 其效果在越遠的地方越有效, 因為光學反射器必須更加強力 才能反射對比更高的光線來對抗黑暗的環境。 所以當你到更遠於太陽的地方, 這將會變得更加的強力。 所以,事實上,你可以在地球上利用天文望遠鏡來探索這些生物。 為什麼我們不做呢?很簡單,因為沒人想到這一點。
But I hope that we shall look, and with any -- we probably won't find anything, none of these speculations may have any basis in fact. But still, it's a good chance. And of course, if it happens, it will transform our view of life altogether. Because it means that -- the way life can live out there, it has enormous advantages as compared with living on a planet. It's extremely hard to move from one planet to another. We're having great difficulties at the moment and any creatures that live on a planet are pretty well stuck. Especially if you breathe air, it's very hard to get from planet A to planet B, because there's no air in between. But if you breathe air -- (Laughter) -- you're dead -- (Laughter) -- as soon as you're off the planet, unless you have a spaceship.
但我希望我們會去尋找,抱持著 -- 可能什麼都找不到的心理準備, 事實上這些推論都沒有任何理論基礎 -- 但是,這仍然是一個很好的機會。當然,如果它真的發生了, 這將會讓我們對生命的觀點改變。 因為這表示生命可以用那種方式存在著, 對比於活在星球上而言,這有著相當大的優勢。 想從一個星球搬到另一個星球是非常困難的事情。 對現在的我們而言是相當難的, 對於活在星球上的生物也是如此。 尤其是如果你需要呼吸空氣 -- 從星球A要到星球B很困難的原因之一 因為如果你需要呼吸空氣,這中間是沒有空氣的 -- (笑聲) -- 你就死定了 -- (笑聲) -- 只要你離開了這個星球的話,除非你有一艘太空船。
But if you live in a vacuum, if you live on the surface of one of these objects, say, in the Kuiper Belt, this -- an object like Pluto, or one of the smaller objects in the neighborhood of Pluto, and you happened -- if you're living on the surface there, and you get knocked off the surface by a collision, then it doesn't change anything all that much. You still are on a piece of ice, you can still have sunlight and you can still survive while you're traveling from one place to another. And then if you run into another object, you can stay there and colonize the other object. So life will spread, then, from one object to another. So if it exists at all in the Kuiper Belt, it's likely to be very widespread. And you will have then a great competition amongst species -- Darwinian evolution -- so there'll be a huge advantage to the species which is able to jump from one place to another without having to wait for a collision. And there'll be advantages for spreading out long, sort of kelp-like forest of vegetation. I call these creatures sunflowers. They look like, maybe like sunflowers. They have to be all the time pointing toward the Sun, and they will be able to spread out in space, because gravity on these objects is weak. So they can collect sunlight from a big area. So they will, in fact, be quite easy for us to detect.
但是如果你能活在真空中,如果你活在那些 例如柯伊伯帶(Kuiper belt)的某個星體表面, 這個 -- 類似冥王星的星體, 或是在冥王星附近的一個小星體, 而你碰巧 -- 如果你生存於那個地表, 你因為星體碰撞而被震離地表, 結果並不會有什麼太大改變: 你仍然在一片冰層上面,你仍然有陽光, 當你從某一個地方跑到另一個地方時,你仍然可以存活。 而當你跑到另一個星體上,你可以在待在那裡, 移居到另一個星體上。如此生命就可以散播出去, 從一個星體到另一個星體。所以如果它存在於柯伊伯帶(Kuiper belt), 它可能散播的相當廣範。那麼你將會 在各物種中擁有最佳的競爭力,達爾文的演化論, 所以這些物種將有相當大的優勢, 也就是能夠從某個地方移居到另一個地方的能力, 而不需要等待另一個撞擊發生。這將會是很大的優勢 來廣泛散佈,產生類似海藻的森林。 我稱這些生物為向日葵。 它們看起來也許像是向日葵。 它們必須永遠朝向太陽, 它們可以散佈到太空之中, 因為這些星體的重力很弱。 所以它們可以用較大的面積來蒐集陽光。 所以它們將會比較容易被探測到。
So, I hope in the next 10 years, we'll find these creatures, and then, of course, our whole view of life in the universe will change. If we don't find them, then we can create them ourselves. (Laughter) That's another wonderful opportunity that's opening. We can -- as soon as we have a little bit more understanding of genetic engineering, one of the things you can do with your take-it-home, do-it-yourself genetic engineering kit -- (Laughter) -- is to design a creature that can live on a cold satellite, a place like Europa, so we could colonize Europa with our own creatures. That would be a fun thing to do. (Laughter) In the long run, of course, it would also make it possible for us to move out there. What's going to happen in the end, it's not going to be just humans colonizing space, it's going to be life moving out from the Earth, moving it into its kingdom. And the kingdom of life, of course, is going to be the universe. And if life is already there, it makes it much more exciting, in the short run. But in the long run, if there's no life there, we create it ourselves. We transform the universe into something much more rich and beautiful than it is today. So again, we have a big and wonderful future to look forward. Thank you. (Applause)
所以我希望在未來十年中,我們能夠找到這些生物, 於是我們對於宇宙的生命觀將會改變。 如果我們找不到的話,到時候我們可以創造一些出來。 (笑聲) 有另一個很棒的機會正在開始。 我們可以,只要我們能夠更加了解基因工程, 你能做的其中一件事就是, 將它帶回家,自己動手作,用那個基因工程速成包 -- (笑聲) --用來設計可以在冰冷的人造衛星上生存的生物, 一個類似Europa的地方,於是我們可以在Europa上繁殖屬於我們的生物。 那將會是很有趣的事情。 (笑聲) 當然,這需要很長時間, 那將會使得搬離地球是可能的。 在最後的結果會將會是 -- 不只是人類會殖民到太空中, 而是地球的生命將會搬遷出去, 搬遷到它的王國之中。而這個生命體王國, 當然,就是這個宇宙。如果生命真的存在於那邊, 在短期內那將是令人興奮的事, 但長期而言,如果那兒沒有生命,我們可以自行創造生物。 我們將會把宇宙變得 比現在更加豐富又美麗。 所以,我們將會有個又廣大又美好的未來。 謝謝大家。 (掌聲)