How will we be remembered in 200 years? I happen to live in a little town, Princeton, in New Jersey, which every year celebrates the great event in Princeton history: the Battle of Princeton, which was, in fact, a very important battle. It was the first battle that George Washington won, in fact, and was pretty much of a turning point in the war of independence. It happened 225 years ago. It was actually a terrible disaster for Princeton. The town was burned down; it was in the middle of winter, and it was a very, very severe winter. And about a quarter of all the people in Princeton died that winter from hunger and cold, but nobody remembers that. What they remember is, of course, the great triumph, that the Brits were beaten, and we won, and that the country was born. And so I agree very emphatically that the pain of childbirth is not remembered. It's the child that's remembered. And that's what we're going through at this time.
200年以后,我们的后代将如何看待我们这个时代的所作所为? 我正好生活在一个小镇上 那就是新泽西州的普林斯顿 那里每一年都会庆祝普林斯顿历史上发生的大事 即普林斯顿大战 那是华盛顿将军打下的第一场胜战 也标志着独立战争的一个转折点 那是225年前的事情 但对于普林斯顿而言 它却是一场灾难 整个镇被烧光 那时正好是寒冬 天气非常非常冷 在那个冬季 普林斯顿四分之一的人因为饥饿、严寒而死去 但是没有人记得这个事实 他们记得的只是那场战争的胜利 他们只记得英国佬被打败,美国人取得了胜利,新的国家由此诞生 因此,对于新生命诞生期的痛楚不为人们所记忆这个观点,我是理解的 人们只记得落地的生命 而我们现在所经历的,也是同样一个过程
I wanted to just talk for one minute about the future of biotechnology, because I think I know very little about that -- I'm not a biologist -- so everything I know about it can be said in one minute. (Laughter) What I'm saying is that we should follow the model that has been so successful with the electronic industry, that what really turned computers into a great success, in the world as a whole, is toys. As soon as computers became toys, when kids could come home and play with them, then the industry really took off. And that has to happen with biotech.
我将用一分钟的时间来谈论生物科技的未来 因为我自己对此理解甚少,我不是生物学家 我所知道的,用一分钟来讲就完全足够了 (笑声) 我要说的是 我们应当参考 电子行业走出来的路子 因为它是一条成功的道理 计算机因此而走入了主流社会 其形式就是玩具 而计算机一旦变成了玩具 孩子们就可以在家里玩 于是整个工业就活起来了 这样的过程也应该发生在生物科技领域
There's a huge -- (Laughter) (Applause) -- there's a huge community of people in the world who are practical biologists, who are dog breeders, pigeon breeders, orchid breeders, rose breeders, people who handle biology with their hands, and who are dedicated to producing beautiful things, beautiful creatures, plants, animals, pets. These people will be empowered with biotech, and that will be an enormous positive step to acceptance of biotechnology. That will blow away a lot of the opposition. When people have this technology in their hands, you have a do-it-yourself biotech kit, grow your own -- grow your dog, grow your own cat. (Laughter) (Applause) Just buy the software, you design it. I won't say anymore, you can take it on from there. It's going to happen, and I think it has to happen before the technology becomes natural, becomes part of the human condition, something that everybody's familiar with and everybody accepts.
在这一领域 (笑声) (掌声) 世界上有很多人 他们是职业的生物学家 狗养殖专家 鸽子养殖家、果园护理师、玫瑰护理师 他们都用双手培植生物 他们创造的是美丽的事物,美丽的生物 这些人将因为生物技术而获得力量 这也将是一个巨大的进步 人们将慢慢的接受生物技术 那也将使得许多的反对意见一去不复返 当人们手中拿着这种技术的时候 比如你拿到一个可以DIY的生物技术的工具箱,你就可以 去培育自己喜爱的小狗、小猫 (观众笑) (鼓掌) 只需把软件买回来,你就能自己去设计。其他的就不需要我多讲了。 你自己也能想象出会发生什么。因为这一切即将发生 我认为这必将发生,因为技术也会变成一种让人感觉见惯不怪的东西 变成生活的一种常态 人人都十分熟悉,都能很容易的接受
So, let's leave that aside. I want to talk about something quite different, which is what I know about, and that is astronomy. And I'm interested in searching for life in the universe. And it's open to us to introduce a new way of doing that, and that's what I'll talk about for 10 minutes, or whatever the time remains. The important fact is, that most of the real estate that's accessible to us -- I'm not talking about the stars, I'm talking about the solar system, the stuff that's within reach for spacecraft and within reach of our earthbound telescopes -- most of the real estate is very cold and very far from the Sun.
所以先不谈这个 我要谈的是另一个很不一样的事物 这是我熟悉的领域:天文学 我对于在外太空寻找生命特别感兴趣 我们有可能在那里发现新的生存可能 接下来的10分钟 我将详细的说明 重要的一个事实是 那些我们能够去得到的地方——注意 我不是在讲那些恒星 我是讲太阳系内部 那些通过宇宙飞船和太空望远镜 可以到达的地方 太空中大多数地方都很冷 离太阳也很远
If you look at the solar system, as we know it today, it has a few planets close to the Sun. That's where we live. It has a fairly substantial number of asteroids between the orbit of the Earth out through -- to the orbit of Jupiter. The asteroids are a substantial amount of real estate, but not very large. And it's not very promising for life, since most of it consists of rock and metal, mostly rock. It's not only cold, but very dry. So the asteroids we don't have much hope for.
而今日之太阳系 只有少数几个行星是靠近太阳的 我们就住在其中一颗星球之上 地球轨道与木星轨道之间 有不少的小行星 这些小行星占据了相当一部分的宇宙空间 尽管总量不算很大 并且那里不适宜生命的发展 因为那里大多数是石头和金属,大多数是石头 不仅仅很冷,而且很干 因此 我们不能把希望寄托在小行星上
There stand some interesting places a little further out: the moons of Jupiter and Saturn. Particularly, there's a place called Europa, which is -- Europa is one of the moons of Jupiter, where we see a very level ice surface, which looks as if it's floating on top of an ocean. So, we believe that on Europa there is, in fact, a deep ocean. And that makes it extraordinarily interesting as a place to explore. Ocean -- probably the most likely place for life to originate, just as it originated on the Earth. So we would love to explore Europa, to go down through the ice, find out who is swimming around in the ocean, whether there are fish or seaweed or sea monsters -- whatever there may be that's exciting --- or cephalopods. But that's hard to do. Unfortunately, the ice is thick. We don't know just how thick it is, probably miles thick, so it's very expensive and very difficult to go down there -- send down your submarine or whatever it is -- and explore. That's something we don't yet know how to do. There are plans to do it, but it's hard.
在木星的轨道之外还有一些有趣的地方 那就是木星和土星的卫星 这个地方叫欧罗巴 它是木星的一个卫星 我们可以看到一层平坦的冰层 就像是漂浮在海洋上一样 我们由此相信 在欧罗巴这颗卫星上存在着深海 这一猜测使得我们对木星探测的兴趣大增 海洋——这个最有可能是生命之发源地 在地球上正是如此。因此我们渴望探测欧罗巴 去到冰层底下 去看看到底海洋里有什么东西 看那里是不是也有鱼或海草和海洋怪物,比如头足类动物 这一问题本身 就已经非常让人振奋 但这是很不容易的 不幸的是 冰层是厚的 我们甚至连其厚度也不知道 也许有几英里厚 要去到冰层之下 需要花费大笔的钱 克服重重困难 才能让潜艇下水 进行探测 我们现在还不懂得怎么做 有这样的计划 但必须承认 非常困难
Go out a bit further, you'll find that beyond the orbit of Neptune, way out, far from the Sun, that's where the real estate really begins. You'll find millions or trillions or billions of objects which, in what we call the Kuiper Belt or the Oort Cloud -- these are clouds of small objects which appear as comets when they fall close to the Sun. Mostly, they just live out there in the cold of the outer solar system, but they are biologically very interesting indeed, because they consist primarily of ice with other minerals, which are just the right ones for developing life. So if life could be established out there, it would have all the essentials -- chemistry and sunlight -- everything that's needed.
再去到更远的地方 比如去到海王星 那里就离太阳很远了 不过那里的空间才叫开阔呢 你会在柯伊伯带或奥尔特星云中间 发现几百万乃至几十亿个物体 这些是云状的小物体 当它们飞向太阳的时候 看起来就像彗星 它们大多时候就呆在这个远离太阳的地方 但是从生物学上来说 它们是很有意义的 因为它们大都由冰层以及其他的矿物组成 这正是生命得以发展的要素 假如说那样的环境也能产生出生命 那是因为那里有生命发生所需的一切: 阳光以及化学反应
So, what I'm proposing is that there is where we should be looking for life, rather than on Mars, although Mars is, of course, also a very promising and interesting place. But we can look outside, very cheaply and in a simple fashion. And that's what I'm going to talk about. There is a -- imagine that life originated on Europa, and it was sitting in the ocean for billions of years. It's quite likely that it would move out of the ocean onto the surface, just as it did on the Earth. Staying in the ocean and evolving in the ocean for 2 billion years, finally came out onto the land. And then of course it had great -- much greater freedom, and a much greater variety of creatures developed on the land than had ever been possible in the ocean. And the step from the ocean to the land was not easy, but it happened.
所以 我的观点是 我们应当去那里寻找外星生命 而不是去火星 虽然火星也是一个很不错的适合生命发展的地方 但是我们可以通过经济的成本 看到更远的地方 接下来我将对此加以展开 假设生命在欧罗巴上起源 千百万年里 那些生命都将在水底活动 那么它也很有可能走出海洋 走上陆地 就像在地球上发生的事情一样 也许它已经在海洋里出现并进化了20亿年 最后就跑到陆地上 于是就有了更大的自由 也繁衍出更多种类的物种 这是在海洋里不可能发生的事情 从海洋到陆地并非坦途 但这样的过程还是发生了
Now, if life had originated on Europa in the ocean, it could also have moved out onto the surface. There wouldn't have been any air there -- it's a vacuum. It is out in the cold, but it still could have come. You can imagine that the plants growing up like kelp through cracks in the ice, growing on the surface. What would they need in order to grow on the surface? They'd need, first of all, to have a thick skin to protect themselves from losing water through the skin. So they would have to have something like a reptilian skin. But better -- what is more important is that they would have to concentrate sunlight. The sunlight in Jupiter, on the satellites of Jupiter, is 25 times fainter than it is here, since Jupiter is five times as far from the Sun. So they would have to have -- these creatures, which I call sunflowers, which I imagine living on the surface of Europa, would have to have either lenses or mirrors to concentrate sunlight, so they could keep themselves warm on the surface. Otherwise, they would be at a temperature of minus 150, which is certainly not favorable for developing life, at least of the kind we know. But if they just simply could grow, like leaves, little lenses and mirrors to concentrate sunlight, then they could keep warm on the surface. They could enjoy all the benefits of the sunlight and have roots going down into the ocean; life then could flourish much more. So, why not look? Of course, it's not very likely that there's life on the surface of Europa. None of these things is likely, but my, my philosophy is, look for what's detectable, not for what's probable.
而假如欧罗巴的海洋里确实出现了生命之起源 那么它也很有可能迁移到陆地上 那时的陆地不可能有空气 那是一个真空 一片冰冷 但生命依然会迁至大陆 你可以想象一下 那里的植物就像海带一样 在冰层的缝隙里、在冰层表面生长 假如要在地表生长,需要怎样的条件呢? 首先,它们需要一层厚厚的表皮保护自己 唯有如此,它们才不至于让体内的水从表皮流出来 因此 它们需要鳞甲般的表皮 更为重要的是 它们需要充分收集阳光 木星以及其卫星上出现的阳光 比这里要暗25倍 因为木星离太阳的距离是地日距离的五倍 因此 那里应当有一些生物 我称之为向日花 这些欧罗巴表面的生物 会有各种各样的光线反射功能 只有这样 它们才能保持自身的温度 否则就有可能生活在零下150度当中 这显然不利于生物的发展 至少对于我们已经知道的植物而言 那样的环境是不适宜其生长的 但假如它们的叶子能够 长成镜子的模样 用以汇集和吸收阳光 这样的话 它们就能在地表保持温暖 并且能够享受到阳光带来的各种好处 也可以将它们的根延伸到海底 那样一来 生命将会繁衍得更加繁盛 因此 我们为何不到欧罗巴的表面去寻找生命? 虽然也不一定找得到 毕竟今天说的这些事情没有任何一件是保证做得到的 但我的哲学是:去寻找那些可以探测到的,而不是那些只有理论可能的
There's a long history in astronomy of unlikely things turning out to be there. And I mean, the finest example of that was radio astronomy as a whole. This was -- originally, when radio astronomy began, Mr. Jansky, at the Bell labs, detected radio waves coming from the sky. And the regular astronomers were scornful about this. They said, "It's all right, you can detect radio waves from the Sun, but the Sun is the only object in the universe that's close enough and bright enough actually to be detectable. You can easily calculate that radio waves from the Sun are fairly faint, and everything else in the universe is millions of times further away, so it certainly will not be detectable. So there's no point in looking." And that, of course, that set back the progress of radio astronomy by about 20 years. Since there was nothing there, you might as well not look. Well, of course, as soon as anybody did look, which was after about 20 years, when radio astronomy really took off. Because it turned out the universe is absolutely full of all kinds of wonderful things radiating in the radio spectrum, much brighter than the Sun. So, the same thing could be true for this kind of life, which I'm talking about, on cold objects: that it could in fact be very abundant all over the universe, and it's not been detected just because we haven't taken the trouble to look.
天文学的历史上包含了许许多多不可能的事情 但那些事情后来都变为事实了 最具说服力的 就是无线电天文学 这门学科刚开始的时候 贝尔实验室的詹斯基先生收到来自太空的无线电信号 大多数的天文学家对此不以为然 “没错,你能检测到来自太阳的无线电信号 但是 茫茫宇宙中 就只有太阳是跟我们足够近 并且足够亮因而可以被检测到的天体 这些来自太阳的无线电信号是很微弱的 而宇宙中其他的天体则离我们的距离则是地日距离的几百万倍 因此是不可能检测得到的 去做这个研究也没有意义 这样的冷嘲热讽自然是托后了无线电天文学的进步 至少是20年 因为那里本来就没有东西 就干脆不需要去观测了 但任何人只要去观测过的话 这也是20年后的事情了 那时无线电天文学才真正起步 天文学家这时候才观测得知 原来太空中确实是充满了各种有趣的东西 它们发出的无线电信号也比太阳发出的信号强得多 因此 同样的事情也会发生在木星生命的寻找过程中 就是说 在很冷的地区 在宇宙深处很多地方 都有生命 不过是我们尚未发现 因为我们还没有去那里看过呢
So, the last thing I want to talk about is how to detect it. There is something called pit lamping. That's the phrase which I learned from my son George, who is there in the audience. You take -- that's a Canadian expression. If you happen to want to hunt animals at night, you take a miner's lamp, which is a pit lamp. You strap it onto your forehead, so you can see the reflection in the eyes of the animal. So, if you go out at night, you shine a flashlight, the animals are bright. You see the red glow in their eyes, which is the reflection of the flashlight. And then, if you're one of these unsporting characters, you shoot the animals and take them home. And of course, that spoils the game for the other hunters who hunt in the daytime, so in Canada that's illegal. In New Zealand, it's legal, because the New Zealand farmers use this as a way of getting rid of rabbits, because the rabbits compete with the sheep in New Zealand. So, the farmers go out at night with heavily armed jeeps, and shine the headlights, and anything that doesn't look like a sheep, you shoot. (Laughter)
我最后将讲一下如何去观测 这是我从儿子那里学到的 一种叫“矿工电灯”的照明工具 他今天也在观众席上 这是一个加拿大的说法 假如你打算晚上捕捉野兽 就提着一个矿工的灯 把灯绑在自己的前额上 你就能从动物的眼睛里看到反射 因此 假如你晚上出去 打亮一个闪光 就能看到动物 看到它们眼珠里闪耀的红光 那就是手电的光 假如你是一位狡猾的猎手 你就杀掉那只动物 并且将其带回家 但这么做对于那些白天才来打猎的 猎手而言显然是不公平的 这在加拿大是非法的 在新西兰是合法的 新西兰的农民通过这样的方式来驱赶兔子 那里的兔子在和绵羊争夺资源 农民晚上出去 都是坐着重型吉普车,开着车灯 看到不像绵羊的,就开枪打 (观众笑)
So I have proposed to apply the same trick to looking for life in the universe. That if these creatures who are living on cold surfaces -- either on Europa, or further out, anywhere where you can live on a cold surface -- those creatures must be provided with reflectors. In order to concentrate sunlight, they have to have lenses and mirrors -- in order to keep themselves warm. And then, when you shine sunlight at them, the sunlight will be reflected back, just as it is in the eyes of an animal. So these creatures will be bright against the cold surroundings. And the further out you go in this, away from the Sun, the more powerful this reflection will be. So actually, this method of hunting for life gets stronger and stronger as you go further away, because the optical reflectors have to be more powerful so the reflected light shines out even more in contrast against the dark background. So as you go further away from the Sun, this becomes more and more powerful. So, in fact, you can look for these creatures with telescopes from the Earth. Why aren't we doing it? Simply because nobody thought of it yet.
我提议这样的方式也可以用来 寻找宇宙中的生命 假如这些生活在寒冷冰层之上的生物 不管是在欧罗巴或其他更远的地方 它们身上必定是有聚光的“装备”的 有了那样的盔甲 它们才能汇聚到所需的能量 才能给自身保暖 要是你开着灯射它们 那样的光线就会反射回来 就像你看到动物眼睛反射的光线一样 它们会成为黑暗背景下的闪亮元素 离太阳越远 这样的反射会越强烈 所以当你走得越远 这个方法就越有效 因为那里的反光盔甲必须能够反射出更多的光线 才能获得足够能量 于是我们将在一片黑暗中看到闪亮的明星 离太阳越远 这样的反光就越强烈 因此,我们可以直接在地球上通过太空望远镜观测到这些生物 那我们为什么不做呢?因为人们还没有想到这么做啊
But I hope that we shall look, and with any -- we probably won't find anything, none of these speculations may have any basis in fact. But still, it's a good chance. And of course, if it happens, it will transform our view of life altogether. Because it means that -- the way life can live out there, it has enormous advantages as compared with living on a planet. It's extremely hard to move from one planet to another. We're having great difficulties at the moment and any creatures that live on a planet are pretty well stuck. Especially if you breathe air, it's very hard to get from planet A to planet B, because there's no air in between. But if you breathe air -- (Laughter) -- you're dead -- (Laughter) -- as soon as you're off the planet, unless you have a spaceship.
但我希望我们去尝试一下 也许什么也发现不到 我说的这些猜测确实没有太多的事实支撑 但我认为能够发现生物的可能性是蛮大的。 而假如真的发现了 那将彻底的改变我们对于生命的看法 因为那意味着地球以外的生物适应环境的能力 远胜于地球上生物 要从一颗行星迁移到另一颗行星是相当困难的 我们现在还做不到这一点 并且要迁移的话,地球上的生物都要面对 诸多难题,比如空气 所以说这样的旅途是很困难的 你在途中是没有空气的 (笑声) 你会死的 (笑声) 只要你离开了地球,除非你去到太空船里头
But if you live in a vacuum, if you live on the surface of one of these objects, say, in the Kuiper Belt, this -- an object like Pluto, or one of the smaller objects in the neighborhood of Pluto, and you happened -- if you're living on the surface there, and you get knocked off the surface by a collision, then it doesn't change anything all that much. You still are on a piece of ice, you can still have sunlight and you can still survive while you're traveling from one place to another. And then if you run into another object, you can stay there and colonize the other object. So life will spread, then, from one object to another. So if it exists at all in the Kuiper Belt, it's likely to be very widespread. And you will have then a great competition amongst species -- Darwinian evolution -- so there'll be a huge advantage to the species which is able to jump from one place to another without having to wait for a collision. And there'll be advantages for spreading out long, sort of kelp-like forest of vegetation. I call these creatures sunflowers. They look like, maybe like sunflowers. They have to be all the time pointing toward the Sun, and they will be able to spread out in space, because gravity on these objects is weak. So they can collect sunlight from a big area. So they will, in fact, be quite easy for us to detect.
假如你去到一个真空的世界 到达像柯伊伯带这样的地表上 好比冥王星 或者冥王星周边的小天体 假如你就住在那个表面上 然后来了一个冲撞 你被推倒了 也不会是什么大事 你依然是站在冰层上 你依然能够获取阳光 不管去到哪里 都能存活下来 假如你遇到别的障碍物 你就停在那里 作为你的殖民地 生命就这样繁衍开来 从这个物体到另一个物体不断的蔓延开去 所以假如柯伊伯带上确实有生物 它就很可能传播得很远 并且还将出现不同物种之间的争斗 也就是达尔文式的“物竞天择” 那些有幸到处漂的生物 就更有利于自身基因的传播 也不需等待冲撞 它们也能蔓延开去 变成像海带那样的植物带 我称之为向日花 它们也许就长得跟向日葵那样子 它们必须每时每刻都指向太阳 并且要在地区里传播开去 因为那里的地心引力不会很大 唯有如此 它们才能获取更多的太阳光 所以说 我们是可以很容易的观测到它们的存在
So, I hope in the next 10 years, we'll find these creatures, and then, of course, our whole view of life in the universe will change. If we don't find them, then we can create them ourselves. (Laughter) That's another wonderful opportunity that's opening. We can -- as soon as we have a little bit more understanding of genetic engineering, one of the things you can do with your take-it-home, do-it-yourself genetic engineering kit -- (Laughter) -- is to design a creature that can live on a cold satellite, a place like Europa, so we could colonize Europa with our own creatures. That would be a fun thing to do. (Laughter) In the long run, of course, it would also make it possible for us to move out there. What's going to happen in the end, it's not going to be just humans colonizing space, it's going to be life moving out from the Earth, moving it into its kingdom. And the kingdom of life, of course, is going to be the universe. And if life is already there, it makes it much more exciting, in the short run. But in the long run, if there's no life there, we create it ourselves. We transform the universe into something much more rich and beautiful than it is today. So again, we have a big and wonderful future to look forward. Thank you. (Applause)
我希望 在未来的十年里 我们可以发现这样的生物 那时候我们关于生命的态度都将发生根本性变化 假如我们没有发现这些生物 那我们也可以人工创造出来 (笑声) 这也是一个相当诱人的开始 当我们对基因工程有更多认识以后 就可以 把一个DIY的基因工具箱带回家 (笑声) 我们就创造出一种可以在低温环境下生存的生物 我们就能将这样的生物移民到欧罗巴去 这将会是很有趣的事情 (笑声) 从长远来说 我们也有机会去到那里 最终 人类将移民太空 地球上的生命将 迁移至真正的生命王国 而这个王国 就是浩淼的宇宙。假如宇宙里已经有了生物 短期内 这将使得这一切变得更加好玩 假如没有 我们就创造出来 从长期来看 我们可以把宇宙改造成为一个比今天 更加美妙丰富的地方 所以说 我们的未来是无比美好和辉煌的 谢谢大家 (掌声)