Good morning. I think, as a grumpy Eastern European, I was brought in to play the pessimist this morning. So bear with me. Well, I come from the former Soviet Republic of Belarus, which, as some of you may know, is not exactly an oasis of liberal democracy. So that's why I've always been fascinated with how technology could actually reshape and open up authoritarian societies like ours.
Dobro jutro. Mislim da su me, kao mrzovoljnog istočnog Europljanina, doveli da glumim pesimista ovo jutro. Pa budite strpljivi. Dakle, dolazim iz bivše Sovjetske Republike Bjelorusije, koja, kao što neki od vas znaju, nije baš oaza liberalne demokracije. Upravo zato sam oduvijek bio fasciniran načinom na koji tehnologija može preoblikovati i otvoriti autoritarna društva poput naših.
So, I'm graduating college and, feeling very idealistic, I decided to join the NGO which actually was using new media to promote democracy and media reform in much of the former Soviet Union. However, to my surprise, I discovered that dictatorships do not crumble so easily. In fact, some of them actually survived the Internet challenge, and some got even more repressive.
Dakle, završavam fakultet i, osjećajući se vrlo idealistično, odlučio sam pridružiti se nevladinoj organizaciji što je zapravo bilo korištenje novog medija da se promovira demokracija i medijska reforma u većem dijelu bivšeg Sovjetskog Saveza. Međutim, na moje iznenađenje, otkrio sam da se diktature ne raspadaju tako lako. Naime, neke od njih su zapravo preživjele izazov, i neke su postale još represivnije.
So this is when I ran out of my idealism and decided to quit my NGO job and actually study how the Internet could impede democratization. Now, I must tell you that this was never a very popular argument, and it's probably not very popular yet with some of you sitting in this audience. It was never popular with many political leaders, especially those in the United States who somehow thought that new media would be able to do what missiles couldn't. That is, promote democracy in difficult places where everything else has already been tried and failed. And I think by 2009, this news has finally reached Britain, so I should probably add Gordon Brown to this list as well.
Dakle, ovdje sam prestao biti idealističan i odlučio sam dati otkaz u nevladinoj organizaciji i zapravo proučavati kako Internet može spriječiti demokratizaciju. Sada vam moram reći da ovo nikad nije bio jako popularan argument. I vjerojatno još nije jako popularan nekima od vas koji sjede u ovoj publici. Nikad nije bio popularan mnogim političkim vođama, osobito onima u Sjedinjenim Državama koji su na neki način mislili da će novi medij biti sposoban učiniti ono što projektili nisu mogli. Odnosno promovirati demokraciju u problematičnim mjestima gdje je sve ostalo već bilo isprobano i nije uspjelo. I mislim 2009., ta je vijest napokon došla do Britanije. Dakle trebao bih vjerojatno dodati i Gordona Browna na ovu listu.
However, there is an underlying argument about logistics, which has driven so much of this debate. Right? So if you look at it close enough, you'll actually see that much of this is about economics. The cybertopians say, much like fax machines and Xerox machines did in the '80s, blogs and social networks have radically transformed the economics of protest, so people would inevitably rebel. To put it very simply, the assumption so far has been that if you give people enough connectivity, if you give them enough devices, democracy will inevitably follow.
Međutim, postoji temeljni argument o logistici koja je toliko podržavala ovu raspravu. Točno? Ako pogledate bolje, shvatit ćete da se ovdje najviše radi o ekonomiji. Kiberutopisti govore, slično kao faksevi i kopirni strojevi '80-ih, blogovi i društvene mreže radikalno su promijenile ekonomiju protesta. Stoga će se ljudi neizbježno pobuniti. Da se najjednostavnije izrazim, pretpostavka je dosada bila da ako ljude dovoljno povežeš, ako im daš dovoljno naprava, demokracija će neizbježno uslijediti.
And to tell you the truth, I never really bought into this argument, in part because I never saw three American presidents agree on anything else in the past. (Laughter) But, you know, even beyond that, if you think about the logic underlying it, is something I call iPod liberalism, where we assume that every single Iranian or Chinese who happens to have and love his iPod will also love liberal democracy. And again, I think this is kind of false.
I da vam kažem iskreno, nikada nisam stvarno vjerovao u to, djelomično zato što nikada nisam vidio tri američka predsjednika koja se slažu oko bilo čega u prošlosti. (Smijeh) No znate, čak s druge strane, ako razmislite o logici iza svega toga, to je nešto što zovem iPod liberalizam. Gdje možemo pretpostaviti da svaki Iranac ili Kinez koji ima i voli svoj iPod ujedno voli liberalnu demokraciju. I opet, mislim da to nije točno.
But I think a much bigger problem with this is that this logic -- that we should be dropping iPods not bombs -- I mean, it would make a fascinating title for Thomas Friedman's new book. (Laughter) But this is rarely a good sign. Right? So, the bigger problem with this logic is that it confuses the intended versus the actual uses of technology. For those of you who think that new media of the Internet could somehow help us avert genocide, should look no further than Rwanda, where in the '90s it was actually two radio stations which were responsible for fueling much of the ethnic hatred in the first place.
No mislim da je veći problem u tome što je ova logika -- da bi trebali bacati iPodove, a ne bombe -- mislim da bi to bio fascinantan naslov nove knjige Thomasa Friedmana. (Smijeh) No to je rijetko dobar znak. Zar ne? Dakle, veći je problem s ovom logikom u tome da miješa predviđene i stvarne namjene tehnologije. Za one od vas koji misle da bi nam novi medij interneta mogao nekako pomoći da spriječimo genocid, ne bi trebao tražiti dalje od Ruande. '90-ih su postojale zapravo dvije radijske postaje koje su prvenstveno bile odgovorne za rasplamsavanje etničke mržnje.
But even beyond that, coming back to the Internet, what you can actually see is that certain governments have mastered the use of cyberspace for propaganda purposes. Right? And they are building what I call the Spinternet. The combination of spin, on the one hand, and the Internet on the other. So governments from Russia to China to Iran are actually hiring, training and paying bloggers in order to leave ideological comments and create a lot of ideological blog posts to comment on sensitive political issues. Right?
No s druge strane, vraćajući se na Internet, zapravo možete vidjeti da su neke vlade ovladale korištenjem kiberprostora radi propagandnih ciljeva. Točno? I one grade nešto što zovem spinternetom. Kombinacija spina, s jedne strane, i Interneta, s druge. Vlade od Rusije do Kine i Irana zapravo angažiraju, treniraju i plaćaju blogere da ostave ideološke komentare i stvore puno ideoloških postova na blogu da komentiraju osjetljiva politička pitanja. Točno?
So you may wonder, why on Earth are they doing it? Why are they engaging with cyberspace? Well my theory is that it's happening because censorship actually is less effective than you think it is in many of those places. The moment you put something critical in a blog, even if you manage to ban it immediately, it will still spread around thousands and thousands of other blogs. So the more you block it, the more it emboldens people to actually avoid the censorship and thus win in this cat-and-mouse game. So the only way to control this message is actually to try to spin it and accuse anyone who has written something critical of being, for example, a CIA agent.
Vi se možete pitati pa zašto to rade? Zašto se bave kiberprostorom? Moja je teorija da se to događa zato što je cenzura zapravo manje učinkovita nego što mislite u tim mjestima. Onaj trenutak kad stavite nešto kritički na blog, čak i ako to uspijete odmah zabraniti, i dalje će se širiti tisućama i tisućama drugih blogova. Što to više blokirate, više će utjecati na ljude da zapravo izbjegnu cenzuru i tako pobijedi u ovoj igri mačke i miša. Dakle, jedini način da se kontrolira ta poruka jest da se zapravo pokuša zavrtiti (spin) i optuži svatko tko je napisao nešto kritički da je, npr., agent CIA-e.
And, again, this is happening quite often. Just to give you an example of how it works in China, for example. There was a big case in February 2009 called "Elude the Cat." And for those of you who didn't know, I'll just give a little summary. So what happened is that a 24-year-old man, a Chinese man, died in prison custody. And police said that it happened because he was playing hide and seek, which is "elude the cat" in Chinese slang, with other inmates and hit his head against the wall, which was not an explanation which sat well with many Chinese bloggers.
I opet, to se događa dosta često. Navest ću vam primjer kako to funkcionira u Kini. Dogodio se veliki slučaj u veljači 2009. po nazivu "Izbjegni mačku." I za one koji ne znaju, dat ću kratak sažetak. 24-godišnji muškarac, Kinez, umro je u pritvoru. Policija je rekla da se to dogodilo zato što se on igrao skrivača, što je "izbjeći mačku" u kineskom slengu, s ostalim zatvorenicima, i udario je glavom u zid. Što nije objašnjenje s kojim su se složili mnogi kineski blogeri.
So they immediately began posting a lot of critical comments. In fact, QQ.com, which is a popular Chinese website, had 35,000 comments on this issue within hours. But then authorities did something very smart. Instead of trying to purge these comments, they instead went and reached out to the bloggers. And they basically said, "Look guys. We'd like you to become netizen investigators." So 500 people applied, and four were selected to actually go and tour the facility in question, and thus inspect it and then blog about it. Within days the entire incident was forgotten, which would have never happened if they simply tried to block the content. People would keep talking about it for weeks.
Odmah su počeli pisati puno kritičkih komentara. Naime, QQ.com, popularna kineska stranica, imala je 35.000 komentara o tom pitanju u roku od nekoliko sati. No zatim su vlasti napravile nešto vrlo lukavo. Umjesto da pokušaju ukloniti te komentare, obratili su se blogerima. U osnovi su rekli, "Gledajte. Željeli bismo da postanete istraživači na Mreži." 500 ljudi se prijavilo i četvero ih je odabrano da zapravo ode i pregleda sporni objekt, i tako ga provjeri, i onda piše na blogu o tome. Za nekoliko je dana cijeli incident bio zaboravljen, što se ne bi nikad dogodilo da su jednostavno pokušali blokirati sadržaj. Ljudi bi o tome govorili tjednima.
And this actually fits with another interesting theory about what's happening in authoritarian states and in their cyberspace. This is what political scientists call authoritarian deliberation, and it happens when governments are actually reaching out to their critics and letting them engage with each other online. We tend to think that somehow this is going to harm these dictatorships, but in many cases it only strengthens them. And you may wonder why. I'll just give you a very short list of reasons why authoritarian deliberation may actually help the dictators.
I to se zapravo uklapa u druge zanimljive teorije o tome što se događa u autoritativnim državama, i u njihovom kiberprostoru. To je ono što politolozi zovu autoritativnim razmišljanjem. I događa se kad se vlade zapravo obraćaju svojim kritičarima i dopuštaju im da zajedno surađuju jedni s drugima online. Mi težimo tome da mislimo da će to nekako naškoditi tim diktaturama, no u mnogo slučajeva to ih samo jača. I vi se možete pitati zašto. Dat ću vam jako kratak popis razloga zašto autoritativno razmišljanje može zapravo pomoći diktatorima.
And first it's quite simple. Most of them operate in a complete information vacuum. They don't really have the data they need in order to identify emerging threats facing the regime. So encouraging people to actually go online and share information and data on blogs and wikis is great because otherwise, low level apparatchiks and bureaucrats will continue concealing what's actually happening in the country, right? So from this perspective, having blogs and wikis produce knowledge has been great.
I prvi je dosta jednostavan. Većina njih djeluje u potpunom informacijskom vakuumu. Oni zapravo nemaju podatke koje trebaju da bi identificirali nastale prijetnje s kojima se suočava režim. Ohrabrivati ljude da zapravo idu online i dijele informaciju i podatke na blogovima i wikijima je odlično zato što će inače, niskopozicionirani aparatčiki i birokrati nastaviti sakrivati što se doista događa u zemlji, zar ne? Iz ove perspektive, postojanje blogova i wikija koji stvaraju znanje je sjajno.
Secondly, involving public in any decision making is also great because it helps you to share the blame for the policies which eventually fail. Because they say, "Well look, we asked you, we consulted you, you voted on it. You put it on the front page of your blog. Well, great. You are the one who is to blame."
Drugo, uključivanje publike u bilo koje donošenje odluka također je sjajno zato što vam pomaže da dijelite krivnju za politike koje eventualno ne uspiju. Zato što kažu, "Gledajte, pitali smo vas, savjetovali se s vama, glasali ste za to. Vi to stavljate na prednju stranu svog bloga. Pa, dobro. Vi ste jedini koji se može okriviti."
And finally, the purpose of any authoritarian deliberation efforts is usually to increase the legitimacy of the regimes, both at home and abroad. So inviting people to all sorts of public forums, having them participate in decision making, it's actually great. Because what happens is that then you can actually point to this initiative and say, "Well, we are having a democracy. We are having a forum."
I napokon, svrha je bilo kojih nastojanja autoritativnog razmišljanja obično da povećaju zakonitost režima, i kod kuće i u inozemstvu. Pozivanje ljudi na sve vrste javnih foruma, njihovo sudjelovanje u donošenju odluka, zapravo je odlično. Zato što tada možete zapravo ukazati na tu inicijativu i reći, "Dobro, mi imamo demokraciju. Mi imamo forum."
Just to give you an example, one of the Russian regions, for example, now involves its citizens in planning its strategy up until year 2020. Right? So they can go online and contribute ideas on what that region would look like by the year 2020. I mean, anyone who has been to Russia would know that there was no planning in Russia for the next month. So having people involved in planning for 2020 is not necessarily going to change anything, because the dictators are still the ones who control the agenda.
Navest ću vam primjer, jedna ruska regija, na primjer, sada uključuje svoje građane u planiranje svoje strategije do 2020. godine. Točno? Oni mogu ići online i doprinijeti idejama o tome kako bi regija trebala izgledati do 2020. godine. Mislim, svatko tko je bio u Rusiji zna da tamo nema planiranja za sljedeći mjesec. Dakle, uključivanje ljudi u planiranje za 2020. neće nužno promijeniti nešto. Zato što su diktatori ti koji kontroliraju dnevni red.
Just to give you an example from Iran, we all heard about the Twitter revolution that happened there, but if you look close enough, you'll actually see that many of the networks and blogs and Twitter and Facebook were actually operational. They may have become slower, but the activists could still access it and actually argue that having access to them is actually great for many authoritarian states. And it's great simply because they can gather open source intelligence.
Navest ću vam primjer iz Irana. Svi smo čuli za Twitter revoluciju koja se tamo dogodila. No ako pobliže pogledate, zapravo ćete vidjeti da je puno mreža i blogova i Twitter i Facebook, zapravo operativno. Možda su postali sporiji, no aktivisti su im još mogli pristupiti i zapravo raspravljati da je pristup njima ustvari odličan za mnoge autoritativne države. I odlično je jednostavno zato što mogu okupiti inteligenciju otvorenog koda.
In the past it would take you weeks, if not months, to identify how Iranian activists connect to each other. Now you actually know how they connect to each other by looking at their Facebook page. I mean KGB, and not just KGB, used to torture in order to actually get this data. Now it's all available online. (Laughter)
U prošlosti su vam trebali tjedni, ako ne i mjeseci, da otkrijete kako se iranski aktivisti međusobno povezuju. Sada zapravo znate kako se međusobno povezuju gledajući njihovu stranicu na Facebook-u. KGB, i ne samo KGB, mučio je da dođe do tih podataka. Sada je sve dostupno online. (Smijeh)
But I think the biggest conceptual pitfall that cybertopians made is when it comes to digital natives, people who have grown up online. We often hear about cyber activism, how people are getting more active because of the Internet. Rarely hear about cyber hedonism, for example, how people are becoming passive. Why? Because they somehow assume that the Internet is going to be the catalyst of change that will push young people into the streets, while in fact it may actually be the new opium for the masses which will keep the same people in their rooms downloading pornography. That's not an option being considered too strongly.
No mislim da je najveća konceptualna zamka koju rade kiberutopisti ta kad se radi o digitalnim starosjediocima, ljudima koji su odrasli online. Često čujemo o kibernetičkom aktivizmu, kako ljudi postaju aktivniji zbog Interneta. Rijetko čujemo o kibernetičkom hedonizmu, na primjer, kako ljudi postaju pasivniji. Zašto? Zato što nekako pretpostavljaju da će Internet biti katalizator promjene koja će gurnuti mlade ljude na ulice, dok će ustvari možda biti novi opijum za mase koji će držati iste ljude u njihovim sobama da preuzimaju pornografiju. Ta se opcija previše ne razmatra.
So for every digital renegade that is revolting in the streets of Tehran, there may as well be two digital captives who are actually rebelling only in the World of Warcraft. And this is realistic. And there is nothing wrong about it because the Internet has greatly empowered many of these young people and it plays a completely different social role for them.
Za svakog digitalnog odmetnika koji diže ustanak na ulicama Teherana, postoje možda dva digitalna zarobljenika koji se ustvari bune samo u igri World of Warcraft. I to je realno. I tu nema ničeg pogrešnog zato što je Internet uvelike osnažio mnoge od tih mladih ljudi. I to ima potpuno drugačiju socijalnu ulogu za njih.
If you look at some of the surveys on how the young people actually benefit from the Internet, you'll see that the number of teenagers in China, for example, for whom the Internet actually broadens their sex life, is three times more than in the United States. So it does play a social role, however it may not necessarily lead to political engagement.
Ako pogledate neke od anketa o tome kakvu korist od interneta zapravo imaju mladi ljudi, vidjet ćete da je broj tinejdžera u Kini, na primjer, za koje Internet ustvari proširuje njihov seksualni život, tri puta veći nego u Sjedinjenim Državama. To doista igra socijalnu ulogu, međutim nužno ne dovodi do političkog angažmana.
So the way I tend to think of it is like a hierarchy of cyber-needs in space, a total rip-off from Abraham Maslow. But the point here is that when we get the remote Russian village online, what will get people to the Internet is not going to be the reports from Human Rights Watch. It's going to be pornography, "Sex and the City," or maybe watching funny videos of cats. So this is something you have to recognize.
Dakle, način na koji težim misliti je poput hijerarhije kibernetičkih potreba u prostoru. Totalno potkradanje Abrahama Maslowa. Poanta je u tome da kad postavimo zabačeno rusko selo online, ono što će privući ljude na Internet nisu izvještaji nevladine organizacije Human Rights Watch. To će biti pornografija, Seks u gradu, ili možda gledanje smiješnih videa mačaka. To je nešto što morate prepoznati.
So what should we do about it? Well I say we have to stop thinking about the number of iPods per capita and start thinking about ways in which we can empower intellectuals, dissidents, NGOs and then the members of civil society. Because even what has been happening up 'til now with the Spinternet and authoritarian deliberation, there is a great chance that those voices will not be heard. So I think we should shatter some of our utopian assumptions and actually start doing something about it. Thank you. (Applause)
Što bismo trebali učiniti u svezi s tim? Ja kažem da moramo prestati razmišljati o broju iPod-ova po čovjeku i početi razmišljati o načinima na koje možemo osnažiti intelektualce, disidente, nevladine organizacije, i tek tada pripadnike građanskog društva. Zato što čak ono što se do sada događalo sa spinternetom i autoritativnim razmišljanjem, postoji velika mogućnost da se ti glasovi neće čuti. Mislim da bi trebali razbiti neke od naših utopijskih pretpostavki i ustvari poduzeti nešto u svezi s tim. Hvala vam. (Pljesak)