Let me ask you all a question. How much weapons-grade nuclear material do you think it would take to level a city the size of San Francisco? How many of you think it would be an amount about the size of this suitcase? OK. And how about this minibus?
讓我問你們所有人一個問題。 你們覺得用多少核武材料 才能將舊金山那麼大的城市摧毀掉? 你們有多少人覺得它的量 大約是一個手提箱那麽大? 好的。小巴士那麼大怎麽樣?
All right. Well actually, under the right circumstances, an amount of highly enriched uranium about the size of your morning latte would be enough to kill 100,000 people instantly. Hundreds of thousands of others would become horribly ill, and parts of the city would be uninhabitable for years, if not for decades.
好吧。 其實,在合適的情況下, 一杯早晨喝的拿鐵的濃縮鈾量 就足夠殺死 10 萬人, 在一瞬間。 幾十萬人會變發生恐怖病變, 而且城市的很多部分 在許多年裡都會寸草不生, 要不就是幾十年。
But you can forget that nuclear latte, because today's nuclear weapons are hundreds of times more powerful even than those we dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. And even a limited nuclear war involving, say, tens of nuclear weapons, could lead to the end of all life on the planet.
但是你可以忘記那杯核拿鐵, 因為如今的核武威力比以前的強, 甚至比廣島和長崎的 原子彈強了幾百倍。 即使在有限制核武的戰爭中, 比如說只有幾十枚核導彈, 就可以消滅地球上的所有生物。
So it's really important that you know that right now we have over 15,000 nuclear weapons in the hands of nine nations. And if you live in a city or near a military facility, one is likely pointed right at you. In fact, if you live in any of the rural areas where nuclear weapons are stored globally, one is likely pointed at you. About 1,800 of these weapons are on high alert, which means they can be launched within 15 minutes of a presidential command.
所以這件事很重要,你要知道 如今我們已經有超過 15000 枚核武器, 掌控在 9 個國家中。 如果你住在一個城市, 或者在軍事設施附近, 很可能有一枚核彈正瞄準著你。 事實上,如果你們生活在偏遠地區, 世界各地核武都儲存在偏遠地區, 有一枚很可能正瞄準著你。 有大約 1800 枚隨時待命的核彈, 也就是說它們在 15 分鐘內就可以發射, 在某個總統的指令下。
So I know this is a bummer of an issue, and maybe you have that -- what was it? -- psychic fatigue that we heard about a little bit earlier. So I'm going to switch gears for just a second, and I'm going to talk about my imaginary friend, who I like to think of as Jasmine, just for a moment.
我明白這個問題很煩人。 你也可能有那個什麽來著? ──心理疲勞? 我們之前有聽到一點。 所以我將要轉移話題一下, 我要說說我想像中的朋友, 我要叫她賈絲明, 只要一下下。
Jasmine, at the age of 25, is part of a generation that is more politically and socially engaged than anything we've seen in 50 years. She and her friends think of themselves as change agents and leaders and activists. I think of them as Generation Possible. They regularly protest about the issues they care about, but nuclear weapons are not one of them, which makes sense, because Jasmine was born in 1991, at the end of the Cold War. So she didn't grow up hearing a lot about nuclear weapons. She never had to duck and cover under her desk at school. For Jasmine, a fallout shelter is an app in the Android store. Nuclear weapons help win games. And that is really a shame, because right now, we need Generation Possible to help us make some really important decisions about nuclear weapons.
賈絲明,25 歲, 是活躍於政治和社會的那一代人, 比我們 50 年中所見到的都要活躍。 她和她的朋友把自己比作 改變的代理人、領袖和積極分子。 我認為他們是「什麼都可能世代。」 他們定期抗議他們關心的問題, 但是核武器不在範圍內, 這很說得通, 因為賈思明出生於 1991 年, 是冷戰結束的那年。 所以她在成長過程中 從來沒有聽過核武器。 她從來沒有在學校的桌子底下 預演過躲避和遮蓋。 對於賈思明,落塵掩蔽體指的是 Android 商店裡的應用程式 異塵餘生:庇護所。 核武器幫助她贏得遊戲勝利。 這真是恥辱。 因為如今,我們需要 「什麼都可能世代」 來幫助我們做出核武的重大決策。
For instance, will we further reduce our nuclear arsenals globally, or will we spend billions, maybe a trillion dollars, to modernize them so they last throughout the 21st century, so that by the time Jasmine is my age, she's talking to her children and maybe even her grandchildren about the threat of nuclear holocaust? And if you're paying any attention at all to cyberthreats, or, for instance, if you've read about the Stuxnet virus or, for God's sake, if you've ever had an email account or a Yahoo account or a phone hacked, you can imagine the whole new world of hurt that could be triggered by modernization in a period of cyberwarfare.
比如說,我們要不要進一步 全球性削減核武軍工廠, 或者我們還需花幾十億、 或幾兆美元, 使軍工廠更現代化, 使它們撐過 21 世紀, 所以當賈思明到我這個年齡時, 她會跟自己的孩子們, 甚至可能她的孫子們講 核浩劫威脅? 如果我們注意過網路威脅, 比如說你知道超級病毒 Stuxnet, 或者我的天啊, 如果你曾有個電郵帳號、雅虎帳號, 或者手機被黑客攻擊, 你就可以想像出一個 充滿痛苦的新世界, 因為網絡戰爭的現代化。
Now, if you're paying attention to the money, a trillion dollars could go a long way to feeding and educating and employing people, all of which could reduce the threat of nuclear war to begin with. So --
如果現在你重視怎麼使用資金, 幾十兆美元可以走很長一段路, 被用來養活、教育、雇傭人, 這些都可以降低引發核戰爭的威脅。 所以呢──
(Applause)
(掌聲)
This is really crucial right now, because nuclear weapons -- they're vulnerable. We have solid evidence that terrorists are trying to get ahold of them. Just this last spring, when four retirees and two taxi drivers were arrested in the Republic of Georgia for trying to sell nuclear materials for 200 million dollars, they demonstrated that the black market for this stuff is alive and well. And it's really important, because there have been dozens of accidents involving nuclear weapons, and I bet most of us have never heard anything about them.
現在是非常關鍵的, 因為核武器非常脆弱。 我們有強有力的證據, 恐怖組織的人正在嘗試去掌握它。 就在上一個春季, 四個退休人員和兩名計程車司機 在喬治亞共和國被捕, 原因是販賣核武器材料, 叫價 2 億多美元, 他們證明了這方面的黑市很活躍。 而且這很重要, 因為已經有十多起事故 是跟核武器有關的, 我敢打賭你們大部分人 都沒有聽過這些事。
Just here in the United States, we've dropped nuclear weapons on the Carolinas twice. In one case, one of the bombs, which fell out of an Air Force plane, didn't detonate because the nuclear core was stored somewhere else on the plane. In another case, the weapon did arm when it hit the ground, and five of the switches designed to keep it from detonating failed. Luckily, the sixth one didn't. But if that's not enough to get your attention, there was the 1995 Black Brant incident. That's when Russian radar technicians saw what they thought was a US nuclear missile streaking towards Russian airspace. It later turned out to be a Norwegian rocket collecting data about the northern lights. But at that time, Russian President Boris Yeltsin came within five minutes of launching a full-scale retaliatory nuclear attack against the United States.
就在美國, 我們已經在卡羅萊納州 投放了兩次核武器。 其中一次,有一枚炸彈 從空軍飛機投擲下來, 卻沒有爆炸, 因為核武核心被存放在 飛機上的其他位置。 另一次,核武觸地時已經要引爆, 而其中五個用來 防止爆炸的開關壞了, 幸運的是,第六個開關沒有壞。 如果這些都不能吸引你的注意力, 在 1995 年發生過黑色布蘭特恐慌。 當時俄羅斯雷達專家看見了 一個他們以為是美國核導彈的東西 飛向了俄羅斯空域。 結果那是一枚來自挪威的火箭, 用來收集關於北極光的數據。 然而就在那個時刻, 俄羅斯總統葉爾欽在五分鐘內 決定開啟全規模的報復性核攻擊, 針對美國。
So, most of the world's nuclear nations have committed to getting rid of these weapons of mass destruction. But consider this: the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which is the most widely adopted arms control treaty in history with 190 signatories, sets no specific date by which the world's nuclear-armed nations will get rid of their nuclear weapons.
因此,大部分擁有核武器的國家 已經承諾要削減 這些殺傷力很大的武器。 但是我們來考慮一下這個: 《核武禁擴條約》 是迄今為止採納最廣泛的條約, 有 190 個簽字人, 卻沒有為核武國家規定具體日期 讓他們消除核武器。
Now, when John F. Kennedy sent a man to the moon and decided to bring him back, or decided to do both those things, he didn't say, "Hey, whenever you guys get to it." He gave us a deadline. He gave us a challenge that would have been incredible just a few years earlier. And with that challenge, he inspired scientists and marketers, astronauts and schoolteachers. He gave us a vision. But along with that vision, he also tried to give us -- and most people don't know this, either -- he tried to give us a partner in the form of our fiercest Cold War rival, the Soviet Union. Because part of Kennedy's vision for the Apollo program was that it be a cooperation, not a competition, with the Soviets. And apparently, Nikita Khrushchev, the Soviet Premier, agreed. But before that cooperation could be realized, Kennedy was assassinated, and that part of the vision was deferred.
當甘迺迪把人送上月亮, 決定把他帶回來, 或者決定倆件事都做, 他可沒有說: 「喂,等你準備好就出發。」 他給了我們一個截止日期。 他給了我們一個挑戰, 是那之前幾年根本還想不到的事。 然而伴隨著那個挑戰, 他啟迪了科學家和行銷者, 太空人和學校老師。 他給了我們一個願景, 伴隨著那個遠景,他還試著給我們 ──大部分人對此並不知道── 他還嘗試給我們一個合作夥伴, 以我們兇狠的冷戰對手形態 出現的蘇維埃共和國。 因為甘迺迪的 阿波羅計劃有部分願景, 是要與蘇維埃合作而不是競爭。 很顯然,蘇聯總理赫魯雪夫同意了。 但是就在合作能被實現之前, 甘迺迪遇刺。 那部分的願景被推遲,
But the promise of joint innovation between these two nuclear superpowers wasn't totally extinguished. Because in 1991, which is the year that Jasmine was born and the Soviet Union fell, these two nations engaged in a project that genuinely does seem incredible today in the truest sense of that word, which is that the US sent cash to the Russians when they needed it most, to secure loose nuclear materials and to employ out-of-work nuclear scientists. They worked alongside American scientists to convert weapons-grade uranium into the type of fuel that can be used for nuclear power instead. They called it, "Megatons to Megawatts." So the result is that for over 20 years, our two nations had a program that meant that one in 10 lightbulbs in the United States was essentially fueled by former Russian warheads.
但是兩個核武超級大國間 共同改革的承諾 沒有完全消失。 因為在 1991 年,賈思明出生了, 與此同時蘇維埃共和國倒塌了。 這兩個國家共同致力於同一個項目, 在如今看來真的很不可思議, 真的就是字面上的意思, 就是當俄羅斯急需要錢時 美國資助了他們, 來掌控未控制的核武器, 來僱傭那些失業的核專家。 他們在美國科學家的陪同下, 將武器級的鈾轉換為 可用於核能的燃料。 他們稱這個為 「百萬噸至百萬瓦計劃。」 所以成果就是有 20 年, 兩個國家有一個計劃, 讓美國十個燈泡中有一個 其能源主要來自前蘇聯的核彈頭。
So, together these two nations did something truly audacious. But the good news is, the global community has the chance to do something just as audacious today. To get rid of nuclear weapons and to end the supply of the materials required to produce them, some experts tell me would take 30 years. It would take a renaissance of sorts, the kinds of innovation that, for better or worse, underpinned both the Manhattan Project, which gave rise to nuclear weapons, and the Megatons to Megawatts program. It would take design constraints. These are fundamental to creativity, things like a platform for international collaboration; a date certain, which is a forcing mechanism; and a positive vision that inspires action. It would take us to 2045.
因此,這兩個國家真的 一起做了一件膽大的事。 但是好消息是,在此刻全球社區 有一個機會可以做一樣大膽的事。 為了消除核武器 還有停止供應生產的原料, 有些專家告訴我需要花費 30 年。 它需要像文藝復興那類的創新, 結果可能是好也可能是壞, 可能鞏固那個造就了 核武器的曼哈頓計劃, 也可能促進百萬噸至百萬瓦計劃。 它可能要設計限制。 這些是創新的基礎, 像是國際合作平臺; 一個準確日期是驅使它的機制; 一個積極的願景可以啟發行動。 它可能會帶我們來到 2045 年。
Now, 2045 happens to be the 100th anniversary of the birth of nuclear weapons in the New Mexico desert. But it's also an important date for another reason. It's predicted to be the advent of the singularity, a new moment in human development, where the lines between artificial intelligence and human intelligence blur, where computing and consciousness become almost indistinguishable and advanced technologies help us solve the 21st century's greatest problems: hunger, energy, poverty, ushering in an era of abundance. And we all get to go to space on our way to becoming a multi-planetary species.
那一年恰好是核武器 在新墨西哥沙漠誕生的 100 周年。 而對於另一個原因 這也是一個重要的日期。 這是被預測為奇異點出現的時刻, 一個人類發展史的新篇章, 到了那個時候人工智慧 和人類智慧的界限將變得模糊, 計算機和自我意識變得很難區分, 先進的技術幫助我們解決了 21 世紀最嚴重的問題: 飢餓、能源、貧窮, 引領到一個富饒的時代。 我們都到了太空, 往變成多星球居住物種的道路上前行。
Now, the people who really believe this vision are the first to say they don't yet know precisely how we're going to get there. But the values behind their vision and the willingness to ask "How might we?" have inspired a generation of innovators. They're working backward from the outcomes they want, using the creative problem-solving methods of collaborative design. They're busting through obstacles. They're redefining what we all consider possible.
真的相信這些想像的人是第一個喊出 他們不知道到底如何實現它們的人。 但是在這些想像背後的價值, 和自發性的問「我們怎樣做?」 已經啟發了一代創新家, 他們從想要的結果開始倒退工作, 運用有創意的協同設計來解決問題。 他們在困難中突破自我。 他們重新定義了我們所謂的可能。
But here's the thing: that vision of abundance isn't compatible with a world that still relies on a 20th-century nuclear doctrine called "mutually assured destruction." It has to be about building the foundations for the 22nd century. It has to be about strategies for mutually assured prosperity or, at the very least, mutually assured survival.
但是這裡有一件事: 那個富饒的願景與這個 仍舊依賴於核信條的世界不兼容, 那個信條被叫做「同歸於盡。」 我們必須為 22 世紀建立基礎。 我們必須有共同繁榮的策略, 或者,至少也是共同生存的策略。
Now, every day, I get to meet people who are real pioneers in the field of nuclear threats. As you can see, many of them are young women, and they're doing fiercely interesting stuff, like Mareena Robinson Snowden here, who is developing new ways, better ways, to detect nuclear warheads, which will help us overcome a critical hurdle to international disarmament. Or Melissa Hanham, who is using satellite imaging to make sense of what's going on around far-flung nuclear sites. Or we have Beatrice Fihn in Europe, who has been campaigning to make nuclear weapons illegal in international courts of law, and just won a big victory at the UN last week.
如今,每天我都會認識在核危機領域 真正的開拓者。 正如你們看到的, 他們許多人都是年輕女性, 她們正在做極其有趣的事情, 就像馬奈娜·魯濱孫·斯諾登這樣, 開發一些新方法, 更好的方法,來探測核彈頭。 它將幫助我們克服 國際性解除武裝的嚴重阻礙。 或者像麥麗莎·漢漢姆那樣用衛星繪圖 使廣布的核據點中 發生的事情變得更清晰。 或者我們有在歐洲的碧翠斯·費恩, 她已經在國際法院 發起了使核武器非法化的運動。 而且上周才在聯合國大會 贏得了大的勝利。
(Applause)
(掌聲)
And yet, and yet, with all of our talk in this culture about moon shots, too few members of Generation Possible and those of us who mentor them are taking on nuclear weapons. It's as if there's a taboo. But I remember something Kennedy said that has really stuck with me, and that is something to the effect that humans can be as big as the solutions to all the problems we've created. No problem of human destiny, he said, is beyond human beings. I believe that. And I bet a lot of you here believe that, too. And I know Generation Possible believes it.
可是, 可是, 在這個談論登月(創新)的文化下, 在「什麼都可能世代」裡, 還有我們這群指導他們的人中, 太少人在談論核武器。 這就像一個禁忌。 但是甘迺迪說過的一段話 讓我銘記於心, 那句話很有影響力, 他說人類就是解決 自己製造出來的問題的解方。 人類命運的問題,他說, 沒有一個是人無法解決的。 我也堅信這句話。 我也敢打賭你們很多人也相信它。 我認為「什麼都可能世代」也相信它。
So it's time to commit to a date. Let's end the nuclear weapons chapter on the 100th anniversary of its inception. After all, by 2045, we will have held billions of people hostage to the threat of nuclear annihilation. Surely, 100 years will have been enough. Surely, a century of economic development and the development of military strategy will have given us better ways to manage global conflict. Surely, if ever there was a global moon shot worth supporting, this is it.
所以是該訂下期限的時刻了。 讓我們結束核武器這一篇章, 在它誕生 100 週年的時候。 畢竟,在 2045 年前, 我們將有幾十億人 作為核殲滅威脅的人質。 無疑,一百年時間已經足夠了。 無疑,一個世紀的經濟發展 和軍事策略的發展, 將要給我們更好的方法 來解決國際爭端。 無疑,如果有一個全球性的 登月計劃值得協助, 就是這個。
Now, in the face of real threats -- for instance, North Korea's recent nuclear weapons tests, which fly in the face of sanctions -- reasonable people disagree about whether we should maintain some number of nuclear weapons to deter aggression. But the question is: What's the magic number? Is it a thousand? Is it a hundred? Ten? And then we have to ask: Who should be responsible for them? I think we can agree, however, that having 15,000 of them represents a greater global threat to Jasmine's generation than a promise.
現在,當我們面對真正的威脅時── 比如說,北韓近期的核武測試, 馬上面臨制裁── 有理性的人無法達到共識, 是否應該保留一定數量的核武 以此來震懾侵略者。 但是問題是: 哪個數字是神奇的數字? 是一千? 是一百?十? 我們必須要問: 誰應該對它們負責? 然而我認為我們會同意, 對於賈思明那代人, 15000 個核武的存在 更是一個全球威脅而不是保證。
So it's time we make a promise of a world in which we've broken the stranglehold that nuclear weapons have on our imaginations; in which we invest in the creative solutions that come from working backward from the future we desperately want, rather than plodding forward from a present that brings all of the mental models and biases of the past with it. It's time we pledge our resources as leaders across the spectrum to work on this old problem in new ways, to ask, "How might we?" How might we make good on a promise of greater security for Jasmine's generation in a world beyond nuclear weapons? I truly hope you will join us.
這是我們要承諾的時刻, 在這個我們已經打破束縛的世界, 核武器只存在於想像; 我們投入了很多創新的方法 從目標、從我們 亟想要的未來倒退工作, 而不是從現在帶著以前的 精神模型和偏見緩慢的前行。 這是我們以各方各業領袖身分 宣誓保證我們的資源 要開發新的方法以解決這個舊問題, 要去問,「我們會怎樣?」 我們怎樣為賈思明那一代 做出更安全的承諾, 創造出超越核武之世界? 我真切的希望 你們可以成為我們一員。
Thank you.
謝謝。
(Applause)
(掌聲和喝彩聲)
Thank you.
謝謝。
(Applause)
(掌聲和喝彩聲)