Let me ask you all a question. How much weapons-grade nuclear material do you think it would take to level a city the size of San Francisco? How many of you think it would be an amount about the size of this suitcase? OK. And how about this minibus?
让我问大家一个问题: 你觉得需要多少军用级核原料 才能将旧金山这么大 的城市夷为平地? 有谁觉得大概是 这个行李箱的大小? 或者是这辆小巴的大小呢?
All right. Well actually, under the right circumstances, an amount of highly enriched uranium about the size of your morning latte would be enough to kill 100,000 people instantly. Hundreds of thousands of others would become horribly ill, and parts of the city would be uninhabitable for years, if not for decades.
好吧。 事实上,在理想情况下, 一杯拿铁咖啡大小的 高度浓缩铀, 足以在片刻之内 杀死数十万人。 另外还有成百上千的人 会遭受可怕疾病的折磨, 城市的部分地区会 成为生命的禁区长达数年, 甚至数十年。
But you can forget that nuclear latte, because today's nuclear weapons are hundreds of times more powerful even than those we dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. And even a limited nuclear war involving, say, tens of nuclear weapons, could lead to the end of all life on the planet.
当然,现在大家不用想这杯拿铁的事儿 因为当今的核武器 比当年投在广岛和长崎的 原子弹还要强大数百倍。 即使爆发一次小规模的核战, 假设说仅使用了十几颗核弹头, 那也足以造成整个地球上生命的灭绝。
So it's really important that you know that right now we have over 15,000 nuclear weapons in the hands of nine nations. And if you live in a city or near a military facility, one is likely pointed right at you. In fact, if you live in any of the rural areas where nuclear weapons are stored globally, one is likely pointed at you. About 1,800 of these weapons are on high alert, which means they can be launched within 15 minutes of a presidential command.
所以各位一定要知道, 现在世界上有超过15000枚核武器, 掌握在九个国家的手中。 如果你住在市中心 或者临近某个军事基地, 那么某颗核武器 可能正瞄准着你的位置。 而且就算你住在郊区, 那正是全球核武器一般储存的地方, 你仍然有可能被瞄准着。 其中大约有1800枚核武器 处于高度警戒状态, 这意味着它们能在 十五分钟之内发动攻击 仅需要总统的一声令下。
So I know this is a bummer of an issue, and maybe you have that -- what was it? -- psychic fatigue that we heard about a little bit earlier. So I'm going to switch gears for just a second, and I'm going to talk about my imaginary friend, who I like to think of as Jasmine, just for a moment.
我知道这是一个令人头疼的问题, 你可能觉得……怎么说来着? 心理疲劳,我们刚刚听过的。 所以我要暂时换一个话题, 我要谈谈一位我假想的朋友, 我将她取名为Jasmine 吧, 暂时的。
Jasmine, at the age of 25, is part of a generation that is more politically and socially engaged than anything we've seen in 50 years. She and her friends think of themselves as change agents and leaders and activists. I think of them as Generation Possible. They regularly protest about the issues they care about, but nuclear weapons are not one of them, which makes sense, because Jasmine was born in 1991, at the end of the Cold War. So she didn't grow up hearing a lot about nuclear weapons. She never had to duck and cover under her desk at school. For Jasmine, a fallout shelter is an app in the Android store. Nuclear weapons help win games. And that is really a shame, because right now, we need Generation Possible to help us make some really important decisions about nuclear weapons.
Jasmine,25岁, 她属于50年之内最关注 政治与社会的一代人。 她和她的朋友认为自己 是改革者、领导者和积极行动者。 我认为他们是“希望一代”。 他们常常对关注的问题发声, 但是核武问题却不是其中之一, 不过这其实可以理解, 因为Jasmine 出生在1991年, 也就是冷战结束的时期。 所以在她成长过程中 并没有经常听到核武问题的报道。 她也从不需要弯腰躲在学校书桌下。 对于Jasmine 来说,“辐射避难所” 只是一款安卓软件的名称。 “核武器”能帮你在游戏中取胜。 然而这真的很遗憾, 因为现在,我们需要这“希望一代” 在核武问题上, 为我们作出重要决定。
For instance, will we further reduce our nuclear arsenals globally, or will we spend billions, maybe a trillion dollars, to modernize them so they last throughout the 21st century, so that by the time Jasmine is my age, she's talking to her children and maybe even her grandchildren about the threat of nuclear holocaust? And if you're paying any attention at all to cyberthreats, or, for instance, if you've read about the Stuxnet virus or, for God's sake, if you've ever had an email account or a Yahoo account or a phone hacked, you can imagine the whole new world of hurt that could be triggered by modernization in a period of cyberwarfare.
比如,我们是要进一步减少 全球核武器军备, 还是说我们会花费数十亿美金, 甚至上万亿美金, 在整个21世纪继续研发、升级核武器, 使得Jasmine 到我的年龄的时候, 她不得不跟她的孩子, 可能还有孙子孙女 谈论核武器灾难的威胁呢? 而且,如果你关注网络攻击, 或者,假如你听说过“震网病毒”, 又或者,看在上帝的份上, 如果你的邮箱或雅虎账号 或手机曾经被侵入过, 你便可以想象, 随着网络战争的升级, 将会给整个世界带来多大的伤害
Now, if you're paying attention to the money, a trillion dollars could go a long way to feeding and educating and employing people, all of which could reduce the threat of nuclear war to begin with. So --
如果你更关心金钱, 一万亿美金可以在 很长的一段时间里 用来教育、提供工作,养活一大批人。 这些都能够从源头减少核战的威胁。 所以……
(Applause)
(掌声)
This is really crucial right now, because nuclear weapons -- they're vulnerable. We have solid evidence that terrorists are trying to get ahold of them. Just this last spring, when four retirees and two taxi drivers were arrested in the Republic of Georgia for trying to sell nuclear materials for 200 million dollars, they demonstrated that the black market for this stuff is alive and well. And it's really important, because there have been dozens of accidents involving nuclear weapons, and I bet most of us have never heard anything about them.
现在是非常关键的时刻, 因为核武器并不稳定。 我们有确凿的证据表明 恐怖分子正在尝试夺取它们。 就在去年春天, 四个退休人员和两个的士司机 在格鲁吉亚被捕, 因为他们试图以2亿美元 的价格销售核原料, 这充分表明了此类交易 在黑市上存在并活跃着。 这里的关键在于, 涉及核武器的意外事件 已经出现过几十次了, 我打赌绝大多数人都没有听说过。
Just here in the United States, we've dropped nuclear weapons on the Carolinas twice. In one case, one of the bombs, which fell out of an Air Force plane, didn't detonate because the nuclear core was stored somewhere else on the plane. In another case, the weapon did arm when it hit the ground, and five of the switches designed to keep it from detonating failed. Luckily, the sixth one didn't. But if that's not enough to get your attention, there was the 1995 Black Brant incident. That's when Russian radar technicians saw what they thought was a US nuclear missile streaking towards Russian airspace. It later turned out to be a Norwegian rocket collecting data about the northern lights. But at that time, Russian President Boris Yeltsin came within five minutes of launching a full-scale retaliatory nuclear attack against the United States.
仅在美国这, 我们的核武器在卡罗莱纳州 意外坠落过两次。 其中一次,一颗核弹, 从一架空军飞机中掉出, 没有爆炸, 因为核弹核心被分离储存在飞机的其他地方。 另外一次,掉落到地面的核弹已经要引爆, 有五个防止意外爆炸的保险都失效了, 幸运的是,第六个保险起了效果。 如果这还不够引起你的注意, 在1995年的挪威火箭发射事件, 俄罗斯的雷达探测员 检测到一个导弹, 他们误以为是美国的核导弹 正向俄罗斯飞来。 他们后来才发现 那只是挪威的火箭, 用来收集北极光的有关数据。 但是那个时候, 俄罗斯总统鲍里斯·叶利钦 只差五分钟就要决定向美国发动 全副武装的复仇式核武打击。
So, most of the world's nuclear nations have committed to getting rid of these weapons of mass destruction. But consider this: the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which is the most widely adopted arms control treaty in history with 190 signatories, sets no specific date by which the world's nuclear-armed nations will get rid of their nuclear weapons.
因此世界上大多数拥核国家 都决定逐步削减那些大规模杀伤性武器。 但是想想看, “核不扩散条约”, 历史上被最多国家共同认可的军备控制条约 共计190余国签字, 却没有一个明确的目标时间 来彻底消除核武器。
Now, when John F. Kennedy sent a man to the moon and decided to bring him back, or decided to do both those things, he didn't say, "Hey, whenever you guys get to it." He gave us a deadline. He gave us a challenge that would have been incredible just a few years earlier. And with that challenge, he inspired scientists and marketers, astronauts and schoolteachers. He gave us a vision. But along with that vision, he also tried to give us -- and most people don't know this, either -- he tried to give us a partner in the form of our fiercest Cold War rival, the Soviet Union. Because part of Kennedy's vision for the Apollo program was that it be a cooperation, not a competition, with the Soviets. And apparently, Nikita Khrushchev, the Soviet Premier, agreed. But before that cooperation could be realized, Kennedy was assassinated, and that part of the vision was deferred.
当约翰·肯尼迪想要把人类送上月球, 以及还想把人活着带回来时, 他并不是说,你们随便何时完成任务都行 他给了我们一个期限。 同时这是一个挑战, 在登月计划实现的几年前 那仍然是天方夜谭。 但在挑战的压力下, 他启发了科学家和营销者, 宇航员和教师。 他给我们了一片愿景。 除了这片愿景, 他也曾尝试让我们—— 其实大多数人都不知道, 他尝试让我们与另一国家合作, 那就是冷战时期的劲敌——苏联。 因为肯尼迪对阿波罗计划的愿景中, 是与苏联合作,而非竞争。 显而易见,苏共总书记 尼基塔·赫鲁晓夫同意了。 但是在合作实现之前, 肯尼迪被刺杀了, 这一片美好的愿景也成了泡影。
But the promise of joint innovation between these two nuclear superpowers wasn't totally extinguished. Because in 1991, which is the year that Jasmine was born and the Soviet Union fell, these two nations engaged in a project that genuinely does seem incredible today in the truest sense of that word, which is that the US sent cash to the Russians when they needed it most, to secure loose nuclear materials and to employ out-of-work nuclear scientists. They worked alongside American scientists to convert weapons-grade uranium into the type of fuel that can be used for nuclear power instead. They called it, "Megatons to Megawatts." So the result is that for over 20 years, our two nations had a program that meant that one in 10 lightbulbs in the United States was essentially fueled by former Russian warheads.
但是这两个强大的核武国家 之间进行合作的承诺, 并没有被完全扑灭。 因为在1991年, Jasmine 出生那年, 苏联解体了, 之后这两个国家在同一个项目上的合作, 在现在看起来都无与伦比, 怎么形容都不觉得过分, 在俄罗斯最需要钱的时候 美国向其提供现金, 来保护核原料的安全 和聘用失业的核物理学家。 他们和美国科学家一道, 把武器级别的高浓缩铀, 转化成核能发电的燃料。 他们称其为“兆吨换兆瓦”。 结果就是,在这个计划执行了20年后, 这个对于两个国家来说, 意味着美国十分之一的灯泡 是由之前俄罗斯的核弹头驱动的。
So, together these two nations did something truly audacious. But the good news is, the global community has the chance to do something just as audacious today. To get rid of nuclear weapons and to end the supply of the materials required to produce them, some experts tell me would take 30 years. It would take a renaissance of sorts, the kinds of innovation that, for better or worse, underpinned both the Manhattan Project, which gave rise to nuclear weapons, and the Megatons to Megawatts program. It would take design constraints. These are fundamental to creativity, things like a platform for international collaboration; a date certain, which is a forcing mechanism; and a positive vision that inspires action. It would take us to 2045.
这两个国家携手 迈出了勇敢的一步。 好消息是, 如今的国际社会同样也有机会 和美俄两国多年前一样勇敢。 想要摆脱核武器, 并停止供应核武器生产的原料, 一些专家告诉我会花30年。 这需要像文艺复兴般的创新的出现 新的发明,不论好坏, 带来了曼哈顿计划, 正是此计划给人来带来了核武器, 而“兆吨换兆瓦”计划也是其中之一。 还需要有设计上的约束, 这些是对创造力必需的基本, 我们需要国际合作平台, 我们需要一个切实可行的时间表, 作为驱使机制。 同时也需要一个良好的愿景 来鼓励我们采取行动。 这大概需要进行到2045年。
Now, 2045 happens to be the 100th anniversary of the birth of nuclear weapons in the New Mexico desert. But it's also an important date for another reason. It's predicted to be the advent of the singularity, a new moment in human development, where the lines between artificial intelligence and human intelligence blur, where computing and consciousness become almost indistinguishable and advanced technologies help us solve the 21st century's greatest problems: hunger, energy, poverty, ushering in an era of abundance. And we all get to go to space on our way to becoming a multi-planetary species.
2045年正好是核武器 在新墨西哥州沙漠 诞生的100周年。 但是这也是同样一个重要的时间点, 预测称那年是“奇点”的到来, 一个人类发展史的新时代, 人工智能与人类之间的界限逐渐模糊, 计算机和人类意识几乎无法分辨, 先进科技届时帮助我们 解决21世纪最大的问题: 饥饿,能源,贫困, 进入一个富足的时代。 我们都能够去太空 成为多星球的种族。
Now, the people who really believe this vision are the first to say they don't yet know precisely how we're going to get there. But the values behind their vision and the willingness to ask "How might we?" have inspired a generation of innovators. They're working backward from the outcomes they want, using the creative problem-solving methods of collaborative design. They're busting through obstacles. They're redefining what we all consider possible.
相信这个愿景的人说 他们还无法确切知道 如何实现这些愿景。 但是他们愿景的价值 以及问出“我们能怎么做?”的精神 已经启发了一代创新者。 他们从他们想要的成果出发, 使用创造性攻克法来合作创新。 他们跨越障碍, 他们重新定义人类极限。
But here's the thing: that vision of abundance isn't compatible with a world that still relies on a 20th-century nuclear doctrine called "mutually assured destruction." It has to be about building the foundations for the 22nd century. It has to be about strategies for mutually assured prosperity or, at the very least, mutually assured survival.
但是问题是, 富足的愿景和 一个依旧依赖于“同归于尽”这个陈旧的核信条 的世界不相匹配。 我们现在需要创造一个 供22世纪的世界有序运行的基础。 这必须是一个 可以保证共同繁荣的策略 当然 至少需要保障 人类可以和平共存。
Now, every day, I get to meet people who are real pioneers in the field of nuclear threats. As you can see, many of them are young women, and they're doing fiercely interesting stuff, like Mareena Robinson Snowden here, who is developing new ways, better ways, to detect nuclear warheads, which will help us overcome a critical hurdle to international disarmament. Or Melissa Hanham, who is using satellite imaging to make sense of what's going on around far-flung nuclear sites. Or we have Beatrice Fihn in Europe, who has been campaigning to make nuclear weapons illegal in international courts of law, and just won a big victory at the UN last week.
每天,我都会与在消除核威胁 上的真正先驱们会面。 他们中的很多人都是年轻女性, 她们取得了一些瞩目 并且有趣的成就, 像马奈娜·鲁滨孙·斯诺登, 在研究新的方式, 更好的方式,来侦查核弹头, 能够帮助我们解决国际性 解除武装的难题。 或者麦丽莎·汉汉姆,用卫星图片 研究核设施的动态。 或者像在欧洲的比阿特丽·费恩, 致力于宣传,让核武器在 国际法庭上非法化, 上周刚在联合国取得重大胜利。
(Applause)
(掌声)
And yet, and yet, with all of our talk in this culture about moon shots, too few members of Generation Possible and those of us who mentor them are taking on nuclear weapons. It's as if there's a taboo. But I remember something Kennedy said that has really stuck with me, and that is something to the effect that humans can be as big as the solutions to all the problems we've created. No problem of human destiny, he said, is beyond human beings. I believe that. And I bet a lot of you here believe that, too. And I know Generation Possible believes it.
但是, 但是, 在这个谈论不可能实现的文化下, 太少的“希望一代”和教导他们的我们 在着手解决核武器。 似乎这方面是一个禁区。 但是我记得肯尼迪说过的, 很打动我的东西: 事实上, 人类的伟大正体现在 我们能够解决所有我们造成麻烦, 人类未来前途光明, 未来只掌握在人类自己手中。 我对此深信不疑, 我相信你们中的很多人也相信这个。 我知道“希望一代”也相信这个。
So it's time to commit to a date. Let's end the nuclear weapons chapter on the 100th anniversary of its inception. After all, by 2045, we will have held billions of people hostage to the threat of nuclear annihilation. Surely, 100 years will have been enough. Surely, a century of economic development and the development of military strategy will have given us better ways to manage global conflict. Surely, if ever there was a global moon shot worth supporting, this is it.
是时候定下一个日期。 让我们在它核武诞生的100周年, 结束核武时代。 但是,直到2045年, 我们会把几十亿人当成 核武器威胁的人质。 无疑,一百年足够, 无疑,一个世纪的经济发展 和军事战略发展 能够给我们一个更好 控制全球冲突的方式。 无疑,如果有一个值得支持的 伟大的全球项目, 就是这个了。
Now, in the face of real threats -- for instance, North Korea's recent nuclear weapons tests, which fly in the face of sanctions -- reasonable people disagree about whether we should maintain some number of nuclear weapons to deter aggression. But the question is: What's the magic number? Is it a thousand? Is it a hundred? Ten? And then we have to ask: Who should be responsible for them? I think we can agree, however, that having 15,000 of them represents a greater global threat to Jasmine's generation than a promise.
现在,面对真正的威胁, 比如,朝鲜最近的核武器测试, 藐视制裁, 理智的人正在争论 关于我们是否需要留下一定数量的核武器 来震慑暴力。 但是,问题是,数量应该是多少? 一千个吗? 一百个吗?十个? 然后我们一定要问: “谁应该为它们承担责任?” 我认为我们可以同意, 一万五千个核武器的存在 比所谓的承诺 对Jasmine 一代人的威胁更大。
So it's time we make a promise of a world in which we've broken the stranglehold that nuclear weapons have on our imaginations; in which we invest in the creative solutions that come from working backward from the future we desperately want, rather than plodding forward from a present that brings all of the mental models and biases of the past with it. It's time we pledge our resources as leaders across the spectrum to work on this old problem in new ways, to ask, "How might we?" How might we make good on a promise of greater security for Jasmine's generation in a world beyond nuclear weapons? I truly hope you will join us.
所以是时候我们许下承诺, 保证一个世界,使核武器 消失在我们的想象里, 我们向具有创造力的解决方案投资, 从我们为我们渴望的未来而努力, 而不是缓慢地从现在出发, 并带着过去所有的陈规旧习和偏见。 是时候我们宣誓像领导者一样 使用我们的资源, 用新方式解决旧的问题, 去问:“我们该怎么做?” 我们该如何许下一个好的承诺, 保证Jasmine 一代人更安全的环境 在一个没有核武器的世界。 我真的相信你会加入我们。
Thank you.
谢谢。
(Applause)
[“www.nsquare.org”](掌声)
Thank you.
[“www.nsquare.org”]谢谢。
(Applause)
(掌声)