Growth is not dead.
Rast nije mrtav.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)
Let's start the story 120 years ago, when American factories began to electrify their operations, igniting the Second Industrial Revolution. The amazing thing is that productivity did not increase in those factories for 30 years. Thirty years. That's long enough for a generation of managers to retire. You see, the first wave of managers simply replaced their steam engines with electric motors, but they didn't redesign the factories to take advantage of electricity's flexibility. It fell to the next generation to invent new work processes, and then productivity soared, often doubling or even tripling in those factories.
Hajde da krenemo s pričom pre 120 godina kada su američke fabrike u svoje operacije počele uvode struju i pokreću Drugu industrijsku revoluciju. Neverovatno je da produktivnost u tim fabrikama nije porasla 30 godina. Trideset godina. To je dovoljno dugo da se penzioniše generacija upravnika. Prvi talas upravnika jednostavno je zamenio parne mašine električnim motorima, ali nisu rekonstruisali fabrike kako bi iskoristili prednosti fleksibilnosti struje. Na sledeću generaciju je palo da smisli nove procese rada, i produktivnost je onda eksplodirala, u tim fabrikama, često dva ili tri puta više.
Electricity is an example of a general purpose technology, like the steam engine before it. General purpose technologies drive most economic growth, because they unleash cascades of complementary innovations, like lightbulbs and, yes, factory redesign. Is there a general purpose technology of our era? Sure. It's the computer. But technology alone is not enough. Technology is not destiny. We shape our destiny, and just as the earlier generations of managers needed to redesign their factories, we're going to need to reinvent our organizations and even our whole economic system. We're not doing as well at that job as we should be. As we'll see in a moment, productivity is actually doing all right, but it has become decoupled from jobs, and the income of the typical worker is stagnating. These troubles are sometimes misdiagnosed as the end of innovation, but they are actually the growing pains of what Andrew McAfee and I call the new machine age.
Struja je primer tehnologije za opštu upotrebu, poput parne mašine pre nje. Tehnologije za opštu upotrebu pokreću najviše ekonomskog rasta jer oslobađaju slapove dodatnih inovacija poput sijalica, i da, rekonstrukcije fabrika. Postoji li tenologija za opštu upotrebu našeg doba? Naravno, to je kompjuter. Ali sama tehnologija nije dovoljna. Tehnologija nije sudbina. Mi oblikujemo svoju sudbinu, i baš kao što su ranije generacije upravnika morale da rekonstruišu svoje fabrike, mi ćemo morati da ponovo izmislimo svoje organizacije i čak i naš ceo sistem ekonomije. U tome nismo uspešni kao što bi trebali da budemo. Kao što ćemo uskoro videti, produktivnost je u stvari sasvim u redu, ali je postala odvojena od poslova i prihodi tipičnog radnika tapkaju u mestu. Ovi problemi se ponekad pogrešno tumače kao kraj inovacije, ali su zapravo problemi odrastanja u onom što Endru Mekefi i ja zovemo novim dobom mašina.
Let's look at some data. So here's GDP per person in America. There's some bumps along the way, but the big story is you could practically fit a ruler to it. This is a log scale, so what looks like steady growth is actually an acceleration in real terms. And here's productivity. You can see a little bit of a slowdown there in the mid-'70s, but it matches up pretty well with the Second Industrial Revolution, when factories were learning how to electrify their operations. After a lag, productivity accelerated again. So maybe "history doesn't repeat itself, but sometimes it rhymes." Today, productivity is at an all-time high, and despite the Great Recession, it grew faster in the 2000s than it did in the 1990s, the roaring 1990s, and that was faster than the '70s or '80s. It's growing faster than it did during the Second Industrial Revolution. And that's just the United States. The global news is even better. Worldwide incomes have grown at a faster rate in the past decade than ever in history.
Pogledajmo neke podatke. Ovde je BDP po osobi u Americi. Postoje male nepravilnosti, ali veliku sliku možete praktično ravnati lenjirom. Ovo je logaritmična skala, tako da je ono što izgleda kao trajni rast zapravo pravo ubrzanje. Ovde je produktivnost. Možete videti malo usporenje sredinom '70-ih, ali prilično dobro se poklapa sa Drugom industrijskom revolucijom kada su fabrike učile kako da uvedu struju u svoje operacije. Nakon zadržavanja, produktivnost se opet ubrzala. Možda se "istorija ne ponavlja, ali ponekad se rimuje." Produktivnost je danas na svom vrhuncu i uprkos Velikoj recesiji 2000-tih je rasla brže nego '90-ih, bučnih '90-ih, i to je bilo brže od '70-ih i '80-ih. Raste brže nego u Drugoj industrijskoj revoluciji. A to je samo u SAD-u. Globalne vesti su još bolje. Svetski prihodi su rasli brže u prošloj deceniji nego ikada u istoriji.
If anything, all these numbers actually understate our progress, because the new machine age is more about knowledge creation than just physical production. It's mind not matter, brain not brawn, ideas not things. That creates a problem for standard metrics, because we're getting more and more stuff for free, like Wikipedia, Google, Skype, and if they post it on the web, even this TED Talk. Now getting stuff for free is a good thing, right? Sure, of course it is. But that's not how economists measure GDP. Zero price means zero weight in the GDP statistics. According to the numbers, the music industry is half the size that it was 10 years ago, but I'm listening to more and better music than ever. You know, I bet you are too. In total, my research estimates that the GDP numbers miss over 300 billion dollars per year in free goods and services on the Internet. Now let's look to the future. There are some super smart people who are arguing that we've reached the end of growth, but to understand the future of growth, we need to make predictions about the underlying drivers of growth. I'm optimistic, because the new machine age is digital, exponential and combinatorial.
Ako ništa drugo, ove brojke potcenjuju naš napredak jer se u novom dobu mašina radi više o stvaranju znanja nego samo o fizičkoj proizvodnji. To je mozak, ne materija, pamet, a ne snaga ideje, a ne stvari. To stvara probleme za standardnu metriku, jer sve više stvari dobijamo besplatno, poput Vikipedije, Gugla, Skajpa, i ako se stavi na internet, čak i ovaj TED govor. Besplatne stvari su dobra stvar, zar ne? Naravno da jesu. Ali ekonomisti ne mere BDP na taj način. Nepostojeća cena predstavlja nepostojeću težinu u statistici BDP-a. Ako je suditi po brojkama, muzička industrija je sada za polovinu manja nego pre 10 godina, ali slušam više muzike i bolju muziku nego ikad. Mislim da je tako i kod vas. U mom istraživanju se ukupno procenjuje da BDP cifre godišnje propuste preko 300 milijardi dolara u besplatnoj robi i uslugama na internetu. Hajde da pogledamo u budućnost. Postoje neki veoma pametni ljudi koji kažu da smo došli do kraja rasta, ali da bismo razumeli budućnost rasta moramo napraviti predviđanja o osnovnim pokretačima rasta. Optimističan sam, zato što je novo doba mašina digitalno, eksponencijalno i kombinatorično.
When goods are digital, they can be replicated with perfect quality at nearly zero cost, and they can be delivered almost instantaneously. Welcome to the economics of abundance. But there's a subtler benefit to the digitization of the world. Measurement is the lifeblood of science and progress. In the age of big data, we can measure the world in ways we never could before.
Kada je roba digitalna, može se kopirati u savršenom kvalitetu bez skoro ikakvih troškova i može se isporučiti skoro trenutno. Dobrodošli u ekonomiju viška. Ali postoji suptilnija prednost digitalizacije sveta. Mera je žila kucavica nauke i napretka. U dobu velikih podataka možemo premeriti svet na načine na koje nikada pre nismo mogli.
Secondly, the new machine age is exponential. Computers get better faster than anything else ever. A child's Playstation today is more powerful than a military supercomputer from 1996. But our brains are wired for a linear world. As a result, exponential trends take us by surprise. I used to teach my students that there are some things, you know, computers just aren't good at, like driving a car through traffic. (Laughter) That's right, here's Andy and me grinning like madmen because we just rode down Route 101 in, yes, a driverless car.
Drugo, novo doba mašina je eksponencijalno. Kompjuteri se poboljšavaju brže od ičeg drugog, ikada. Plejstejšn nekog deteta danas je moćniji od vojnog superkompjutera iz 1996. Ali naši mozgovi su podešeni za linearni svet. Posledica toga je da nas iznenađuju eksponencijalni trendovi. Svoje učenike sam učio da postoje neke stvari u kojima, znate, kompjuteri nisu baš dobri, recimo vožnja automobila kroz saobraćaj. (Smeh) Tu smo Endi i ja kako se smejemo kao ludi jer smo upravo prošli putem 101 u kolima bez vozača.
Thirdly, the new machine age is combinatorial. The stagnationist view is that ideas get used up, like low-hanging fruit, but the reality is that each innovation creates building blocks for even more innovations. Here's an example. In just a matter of a few weeks, an undergraduate student of mine built an app that ultimately reached 1.3 million users. He was able to do that so easily because he built it on top of Facebook, and Facebook was built on top of the web, and that was built on top of the Internet, and so on and so forth.
Treće, novo doba mašina je kombinatorično. Iz perspektive stagnacionista, ideje se potroše, poput voća na niskim granama, ali u stvarnosti svaka inovacija stvara gradivni materijal za još više inovacija. Evo primera. Za samo nekoliko nedelja jedan moj student osnovnih studija napravio je aplikaciju koju je preuzelo 1,3 miliona korisnika. To je mogao da uradi s tom lakoćom jer je to uradio preko Fejsbuka, a Fejsbuk je napravljen preko mreže, a to je napravljeno preko interneta, i tako dalje.
Now individually, digital, exponential and combinatorial would each be game-changers. Put them together, and we're seeing a wave of astonishing breakthroughs, like robots that do factory work or run as fast as a cheetah or leap tall buildings in a single bound. You know, robots are even revolutionizing cat transportation.
Pojedinačno, digitalno, eksponencijalno i kombinatorično bi svaki za sebe menjali igru. Ali stavite ih zajedno i vidimo talas neverovatnih otkrića poput robota koji rade u fabrikama ili trče brzo kao gepardi i preskaču velike zgrade iz jednog skoka. Roboti čak prave revoluciju i u transportu mačaka.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
But perhaps the most important invention, the most important invention is machine learning. Consider one project: IBM's Watson. These little dots here, those are all the champions on the quiz show "Jeopardy." At first, Watson wasn't very good, but it improved at a rate faster than any human could, and shortly after Dave Ferrucci showed this chart to my class at MIT, Watson beat the world "Jeopardy" champion. At age seven, Watson is still kind of in its childhood. Recently, its teachers let it surf the Internet unsupervised. The next day, it started answering questions with profanities. Damn. (Laughter)
Ali možda najbitniji izum, je mašinsko učenje. Pogledajmo jedan projekat: IBM-ov Votson. Ove tačkice ovde su pobednici televizijskog kviza "Opasnost". Votson isprva nije bio veoma dobar, ali se poboljšao brže nego što bi mogao ijedan čovek i ubrzo nakon što je Dejv Feruči pokazao ovu tabelu mom odeljenju na MIT univerzitetu, Votson je pobedio svetskog šampiona u "Opasnosti". U svojoj sedmoj godini, Votson je još uvek u detinjstvu. Njegovi učitelji su ga nedavno pustili da pretražuje internet bez nadzora. Sledećeg dana počeo je da na pitanja odgovara vulgarnim izrazima. Prokletstvo. (Smeh)
But you know, Watson is growing up fast. It's being tested for jobs in call centers, and it's getting them. It's applying for legal, banking and medical jobs, and getting some of them. Isn't it ironic that at the very moment we are building intelligent machines, perhaps the most important invention in human history, some people are arguing that innovation is stagnating? Like the first two industrial revolutions, the full implications of the new machine age are going to take at least a century to fully play out, but they are staggering.
Znate, Votson brzo raste. Testiraju ga za poslove u telefonskim centralama, i on dobija te poslove. Prijavljuje se za poslove u pravu, bankarstvu i medicini, i dobija neke od njih. Zar nije ironično što u istom trenutku kada pravimo inteligentne mašine, možda najbitniji izum u istoriji ljudi, neki ljudi još uvek tvrde da inovacija tapka u mestu? Poput prve dve industrijske revolucije, punim implikacijama novog doba mašina će trebati makar jedan vek da se potpuno otkriju ali su zapanjujuće.
So does that mean we have nothing to worry about? No. Technology is not destiny. Productivity is at an all time high, but fewer people now have jobs. We have created more wealth in the past decade than ever, but for a majority of Americans, their income has fallen. This is the great decoupling of productivity from employment, of wealth from work. You know, it's not surprising that millions of people have become disillusioned by the great decoupling, but like too many others, they misunderstand its basic causes. Technology is racing ahead, but it's leaving more and more people behind. Today, we can take a routine job, codify it in a set of machine-readable instructions, and then replicate it a million times.
Da li to znači da ne moramo da brinemo ni o čemu? Ne. Tehnologija nije sudbina. Produktivnost je na svom vrhuncu ali manje ljudi sada ima posao. U prošloj deceniji smo stvorili više bogatstva nego ikad, ali za većinu Amerikanaca prihodi su opali. Ovo je veliko razdvajanje produktivnosti od zaposlenosti, bogatstva od rada. Nije iznenađujuće to što su milioni ljudi u iluziji zbog velikog razdvajanja, ali poput mnogih drugih, pogrešno su razumeli osnovne uzroke ovoga. Tehnologija grabi napred, a sve više ljudi ostaje iza nje. Danas možemo uzeti rutinski posao kodirati ga u komplet uputstava koje mašina može da čita i onda ga ponoviti milion puta.
You know, I recently overheard a conversation that epitomizes these new economics. This guy says, "Nah, I don't use H&R Block anymore. TurboTax does everything that my tax preparer did, but it's faster, cheaper and more accurate." How can a skilled worker compete with a $39 piece of software? She can't. Today, millions of Americans do have faster, cheaper, more accurate tax preparation, and the founders of Intuit have done very well for themselves. But 17 percent of tax preparers no longer have jobs. That is a microcosm of what's happening, not just in software and services, but in media and music, in finance and manufacturing, in retailing and trade -- in short, in every industry. People are racing against the machine, and many of them are losing that race.
Skoro sam načuo razgovor koji je savršen primer ove nove ekonomije. Neki tip kaže: "Ne, više ne koristim H&R Block. TurboTax radi sve što je radila i moja osoba za porez, ali brže je, jeftinije i preciznije." Kako obučen radnik može da se takmiči sa softverom od 39 dolara? Ne može. Danas milioni Amerikanaca imaju bržu, jeftiniju i precizniju pripremu poreza, i osnivači Intuita su se veoma dobro obezbedili. Ali 17% poreskih radnika više nema posao. To je mikrokosmos onoga što se dešava, ne samo sa softverom i uslugama, nego i u medijima i muzici, u finansijama i proizvodnji, u maloprodaji i trgovini - ukratko, u svakoj grani privrede. Ljudi se trkaju protiv mašina, i puno njih će tu trku izgubiti.
What can we do to create shared prosperity? The answer is not to try to slow down technology. Instead of racing against the machine, we need to learn to race with the machine. That is our grand challenge.
Šta možemo uraditi da stvorimo zajednički prosperitet? Odgovor je da ne smemo pokušavati da usporimo tehnologiju. Umesto trke protiv mašine, treba da naučimo da trčimo zajedno s mašinom. To je naš veliki izazov.
The new machine age can be dated to a day 15 years ago when Garry Kasparov, the world chess champion, played Deep Blue, a supercomputer. The machine won that day, and today, a chess program running on a cell phone can beat a human grandmaster. It got so bad that, when he was asked what strategy he would use against a computer, Jan Donner, the Dutch grandmaster, replied, "I'd bring a hammer."
Novo doba mašina se može obeležiti jednog dana pre 15 godina, kada je Gari Kasparov, svetski šampion u šahu igrao protiv superkompjutera Deep Blue. Mašina je pobedila tog dana, a danas program za šah na našem telefonu može da pobedi ljudskog velemajstora. Došlo je do toga da kada su pitali Jana Donera, holandskog velemajstora koju strategiju bi koristio protiv kompjutera, odgovorio je: "Poneo bih čekić."
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
But today a computer is no longer the world chess champion. Neither is a human, because Kasparov organized a freestyle tournament where teams of humans and computers could work together, and the winning team had no grandmaster, and it had no supercomputer. What they had was better teamwork, and they showed that a team of humans and computers, working together, could beat any computer or any human working alone. Racing with the machine beats racing against the machine. Technology is not destiny. We shape our destiny.
Ali kompjuter danas više nije svetski velemajstor u šahu. Nije ni čovek, jer je Kasparov organizovao turnir u slobodnom stilu gde su ekipe ljudi i kompjutera radile zajedno i pobednički tim nije imao velemajstora, nije imao superkompjuter. Imali su bolji timski rad i pokazali su da ekipa ljudi i kompjutera koji rade zajedno može da pobedi bilo koji kompjuter ili bilo kog čoveka koji rade sami. Trka zajedno s mašinom nadjačava trku protiv mašine. Tehnologija nije naša sudbina. Mi oblikujemo svoju sudbinu.
Thank you.
Hvala vam.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)