Growth is not dead.
Rritja nuk ka vdekur
(Applause)
(duartrokitje)
Let's start the story 120 years ago, when American factories began to electrify their operations, igniting the Second Industrial Revolution. The amazing thing is that productivity did not increase in those factories for 30 years. Thirty years. That's long enough for a generation of managers to retire. You see, the first wave of managers simply replaced their steam engines with electric motors, but they didn't redesign the factories to take advantage of electricity's flexibility. It fell to the next generation to invent new work processes, and then productivity soared, often doubling or even tripling in those factories.
Le ta fillojme historine 120 vjet me pare, kur fabrikat amerikane filluan te punojne me korrent duke filluar keshtu Revolucionin e Dyte Industrial. Gjeja e cuditeshme eshte qe produktiviteti ne keto fabrika nuk u rrit per 30 vjet. Tridhjete vjet. Eshte kohe e mjaftueshme per te nxjerre ne pension nje gjenerate manaxheresh. Vala e pare e manaxhereve thjesht zevendesoi motorat me avull me ata elektrike, por ata nuk i ridizenjuan fabrikat qe te perfitonin nga fleksibiliteti i elektricitetit. Iu desh gjenerates se mevoneshme te shpikte procese te reja pune, dhe keshtu ne keto fabrika prodhimi u rrit, e shpesh u dyfishua dhe trefishua.
Electricity is an example of a general purpose technology, like the steam engine before it. General purpose technologies drive most economic growth, because they unleash cascades of complementary innovations, like lightbulbs and, yes, factory redesign. Is there a general purpose technology of our era? Sure. It's the computer. But technology alone is not enough. Technology is not destiny. We shape our destiny, and just as the earlier generations of managers needed to redesign their factories, we're going to need to reinvent our organizations and even our whole economic system. We're not doing as well at that job as we should be. As we'll see in a moment, productivity is actually doing all right, but it has become decoupled from jobs, and the income of the typical worker is stagnating. These troubles are sometimes misdiagnosed as the end of innovation, but they are actually the growing pains of what Andrew McAfee and I call the new machine age.
Elektriciteti eshte nje shembull i teknologjise me perdorim te pergjitheshem, sic ishte motori me avull para tij. Teknologjite me perdorim te pergjithshem shkaktojne rritjen me te madhe ekonomike, sepse ato clirojne ujevara shpikjesh qe kane te bejne me te, sic jane llampat elektrike dhe, po, rindertimi i fabrikave. A ka teknologji me perdorim te pergjithshem ne kohen tone? Sigurisht. Eshte kompjuteri. Por vetem teknologjia nuk mjafton. Teknologjia nuk eshte e ardhmja. Ne i japim forme te ardhmes tone, dhe ashtu si gjeneratat e mepareshme te manaxhereve duhet t'i ridizenjonin fabrikat e tyre, ne do te na duhet te rishpikim organizatat tona dhe madje gjithe sistemin tone ekonomik. Ne nuk po e bejme kete pune aq mire sa duhet. Dhe pas pak do te shikojme , prodhimi ne fakt nuk eshte dhe aq keq, por eshte shkeputur prej punes, dhe te ardhurat e nje punetori mesatar kane mbetur ne vend. Keto probleme nganjehere diagnostikohen gabimisht si fundi i inovacionit, por ato aktualisht jane dhimbjet e rritjes se asaj qe une dhe Andrew McAfee e quajme periudha e re e makines.
Let's look at some data. So here's GDP per person in America. There's some bumps along the way, but the big story is you could practically fit a ruler to it. This is a log scale, so what looks like steady growth is actually an acceleration in real terms. And here's productivity. You can see a little bit of a slowdown there in the mid-'70s, but it matches up pretty well with the Second Industrial Revolution, when factories were learning how to electrify their operations. After a lag, productivity accelerated again. So maybe "history doesn't repeat itself, but sometimes it rhymes." Today, productivity is at an all-time high, and despite the Great Recession, it grew faster in the 2000s than it did in the 1990s, the roaring 1990s, and that was faster than the '70s or '80s. It's growing faster than it did during the Second Industrial Revolution. And that's just the United States. The global news is even better. Worldwide incomes have grown at a faster rate in the past decade than ever in history.
Le te shikojme disa te dhena. Ja ku eshte GDP per person ne Amerike. Ka disa luhatje gjate rruges, por perfundimisht ju mund te vini nje vizore paralel me te. Ky eshte nje diagram logaritmik, keshtu qe cka duket si rritje e vazhdueshme eshte ne fakt nje pershpejtim ne terma reale. Dhe ja ku eshte prodhimi. Ju mund te shikoni nje ngadalesim ne mesin e viteve 70-te, por ky perkon me Revolucionin e Dyte Industrial, kur fabrikat po mesonin si te elektrifikonin proceset e tyre. Pas kesaj, prodhimi u rrit perseri. Atehere ndoshta "historia nuk perseritet, por nganjehere ben rime". Ne kohet tona, prodhimi eshte me i larte se asnjehere, dhe me gjithe Recesionin e Madh, ai u rrit me shpejt ne vitet 2000 se sa ne vitet 1990, vitet e arte 1990, dhe ky ishte me i shpejte se ne vitet 70-te apo 80-te. Po rritet me shpejt se gjate Revolucionit te dyte Industrial. Dhe po flasim vetem per Shtetet e Bashkuara. Te dhenat globale jane edhe me te mira. Ne mbare boten te ardhurat jane rritur me ritme me te shpejta ne dekaden e kaluar sesa ne gjithe historine.
If anything, all these numbers actually understate our progress, because the new machine age is more about knowledge creation than just physical production. It's mind not matter, brain not brawn, ideas not things. That creates a problem for standard metrics, because we're getting more and more stuff for free, like Wikipedia, Google, Skype, and if they post it on the web, even this TED Talk. Now getting stuff for free is a good thing, right? Sure, of course it is. But that's not how economists measure GDP. Zero price means zero weight in the GDP statistics. According to the numbers, the music industry is half the size that it was 10 years ago, but I'm listening to more and better music than ever. You know, I bet you are too. In total, my research estimates that the GDP numbers miss over 300 billion dollars per year in free goods and services on the Internet. Now let's look to the future. There are some super smart people who are arguing that we've reached the end of growth, but to understand the future of growth, we need to make predictions about the underlying drivers of growth. I'm optimistic, because the new machine age is digital, exponential and combinatorial.
Mbi te gjtiha, keta numra aktualisht e minimizojne progresin tone, sepse periudha e re e makines ka me shume te beje me krijim te njohurive sesa thjesht prodhim fizik. Eshte mendja jo lenda, truri jo ushqimi, idete dhe jo sendet. Kjo krijon problem per metriken standarte, sepse po perfitojme gjithnje e me teper gjera pa para sic psh: Wikipedia, Google, Skype, dhe nese postohet ne web, edhe kete fjalim te TED. Epo te marresh gjera pa para eshte gje e mire apo jo? Sigurisht qe eshte. Por ekonomistet nuk e masin keshtu GDP. Cmimi zero do te thote qe dhe pesha eshte zero ne statistikat e GDP. Sipas numrave, industria e muzikes eshte pergjysmuar ne krahasim me 10 vjet me pare, por une po degjoj me shume muzike dhe me te mire se me pare. Dhe ve bast qe keshtu po ndodh dhe per ju. Studimi im parashikon qe ne te dhenat e GDP nuk perfshihen mbi 300 miliard dollare ne vit qe vijne nga mallrat pa pagese dhe sherbimet ne Internet. Tani le t'i hedhim nje sy te ardhmes. Ka disa njerez shume te zgjuar te cilet argumentojne qe ne kemi arritur fundin e rritjes, por per te kuptuar te ardhmen e rritjes, ne duhet te bejme parashikime mbi faktoret e padukshem te rritjes. Une jam optimist, sepse periudha e re e makines eshte dixhitale, eksponenciale dhe e kombinueshme.
When goods are digital, they can be replicated with perfect quality at nearly zero cost, and they can be delivered almost instantaneously. Welcome to the economics of abundance. But there's a subtler benefit to the digitization of the world. Measurement is the lifeblood of science and progress. In the age of big data, we can measure the world in ways we never could before.
Kur mallrat jane dixhitale, ato mund te shumefishohen me cilesi perfekte dhe me kosto pothuajse zero, dhe ato mund te perftohen pothujase menjehere. Mireseerdhet ne ekonomine e bollekut. Por ka nje benefit me te komplikuar ne dixhitalizimin e botes. Matja eshte arteria kryesore e shkences dhe progresit. Ne periudhen e te dhenave te medha, ne mund ta matim boten me menyra qe me pare ishte e pamundur.
Secondly, the new machine age is exponential. Computers get better faster than anything else ever. A child's Playstation today is more powerful than a military supercomputer from 1996. But our brains are wired for a linear world. As a result, exponential trends take us by surprise. I used to teach my students that there are some things, you know, computers just aren't good at, like driving a car through traffic. (Laughter) That's right, here's Andy and me grinning like madmen because we just rode down Route 101 in, yes, a driverless car.
Se dyti, periudha e makines se re eshte eksponenciale. Kompjuterat permiresohen me shpejt se cdo gje tjeter. Ne ditet tona nje Playstation eshte me i fuqishem se sa nje super kompjuter ushtarak i vitit 1996. Por truri yne eshte i ndertuar te funksionoje ne nje bote lineare. Si rezultat, trendet eksponenciale na kapin ne befasi. Une u mesoja studenteve te mi se ka disa gjera te cilat kompjuterat nuk i bejne mire, si psh t'i japesh makines ne trafik. (te qeshura) Po vertete, ja ku jemi une dhe Andy duke buzeqeshur si te cmendur sepse ne sapo erdhem nga Route 101 ne nje makine pa shofer, po po.
Thirdly, the new machine age is combinatorial. The stagnationist view is that ideas get used up, like low-hanging fruit, but the reality is that each innovation creates building blocks for even more innovations. Here's an example. In just a matter of a few weeks, an undergraduate student of mine built an app that ultimately reached 1.3 million users. He was able to do that so easily because he built it on top of Facebook, and Facebook was built on top of the web, and that was built on top of the Internet, and so on and so forth.
Se treti, periudha e re e makines eshte e kombinueshme. Sipas pikepamjes stanjacioniste, idete harxhohen, si frutat ne deget e poshtme, por ne realitet cdo inovacion krijon bazen per edhe me shume inovacione. Ja nje shembull. Ne pak jave, nje student i imi i universitetit ndertoi nje Aplikim qe tani ka 1.3 milion perdorues. Ai ishte ne gjendje ta bente kete kaq kollaj sepse e ndertoi mbi Facebook, dhe Facebook eshte ndertuar mbi web-in, i cili eshte ndertuar mbi Internet-in, dhe keshtu me radhe.
Now individually, digital, exponential and combinatorial would each be game-changers. Put them together, and we're seeing a wave of astonishing breakthroughs, like robots that do factory work or run as fast as a cheetah or leap tall buildings in a single bound. You know, robots are even revolutionizing cat transportation.
Tani individualisht, dixhitali, eksponenciali dhe kombinueshmeria do te ishin lojtare me vete. Me bashkimin e tyre ne po shohim nje vale zbulimesh te cuditshme, si robotet qe bejne pune ne fabrika ose vrapojne aq shpejt sa edhe nje cita ose kercejne nga ndertesa te larta me nje hedhje. Madje robotet po revolucionarizojne edhe transportin e maceve.
(Laughter)
(te qeshura)
But perhaps the most important invention, the most important invention is machine learning. Consider one project: IBM's Watson. These little dots here, those are all the champions on the quiz show "Jeopardy." At first, Watson wasn't very good, but it improved at a rate faster than any human could, and shortly after Dave Ferrucci showed this chart to my class at MIT, Watson beat the world "Jeopardy" champion. At age seven, Watson is still kind of in its childhood. Recently, its teachers let it surf the Internet unsupervised. The next day, it started answering questions with profanities. Damn. (Laughter)
Por ndoshta inovacioni me i rendesishem, inovacioni me i rendesishem eshte te mesuarit e makines. Kini parasysh nje projekt: Watson i IBM-se. Keto pikat e vogla ketu, jane te gjithe kampionet e shfaqjes televizive "Jeopardy". Ne fillim, Watson nuk ishte shume i mire, por ai u permiresua me shpejt sec mund te permiresohet nje njeri, dhe pak pasi Dave Ferrucci ia tregoi kete tabele klases time tek MIT, Watson e mundi kampionin e botes ne "Jeopardy". Ne moshen 7 vjec, Watson eshte akoma ne femijerine e tij. Se fundmi, mesuesit e tij e lane te punonte ne Internet pa supervizion. Diten tjeter, ai filloi t'u pergjigjej pyetjeve me fjale te pasjellshme. Dreqi. (te qeshura)
But you know, Watson is growing up fast. It's being tested for jobs in call centers, and it's getting them. It's applying for legal, banking and medical jobs, and getting some of them. Isn't it ironic that at the very moment we are building intelligent machines, perhaps the most important invention in human history, some people are arguing that innovation is stagnating? Like the first two industrial revolutions, the full implications of the new machine age are going to take at least a century to fully play out, but they are staggering.
Por Watson po rritet shpejt. Po testohet per te punuar ne call centers dhe po pranohet. Po aplikon per pune qe kane te bejne me ligjin, sistemin bankar dhe shendetesine dhe po pranohet ne disa prej tyre. Nuk eshte ironike qe tamam ne momentin kur ne po ndertojme makina inteligjente, ndoshta inovacioni me i rendesishem ne historine e njerezimit, disa njerez thone qe inovacioni ka mbetur ne vend? Ashtu si edhe dy revolucionet industriale, implikimet e plota te periudhes se re te makines do ta kene impaktin e tyre pas nje shekulli, por ato po lekunden.
So does that mean we have nothing to worry about? No. Technology is not destiny. Productivity is at an all time high, but fewer people now have jobs. We have created more wealth in the past decade than ever, but for a majority of Americans, their income has fallen. This is the great decoupling of productivity from employment, of wealth from work. You know, it's not surprising that millions of people have become disillusioned by the great decoupling, but like too many others, they misunderstand its basic causes. Technology is racing ahead, but it's leaving more and more people behind. Today, we can take a routine job, codify it in a set of machine-readable instructions, and then replicate it a million times.
A do te thote kjo qe ne nuk duhet te shqetesohemi per asgje? Jo. Teknologjia nuk eshte e ardhmja. Prodhimi eshte ne shkallen me te larte te te gjtiha koherave, por me pak njerez jane te punesuar. Ne kemi krijuar me shume se kurre pasuri ne dekaden e kaluar, por per shumicen e Amerikaneve, rroga eshte ulur. Kjo eshte shkeputja e madhe e prodhimit nga punesimi, e pasurise nga puna. E dini qe nuk eshte cudi qe miliona njerez jane zhgenjyer nga shkeputja e madhe, por si shume te tjere, ata i keqkuptojne shkaqet baze te saj. Teknologjia po ecen perpara, por po le shume e shume njerez prapa. Ne ditet e sotme, ne mund te marrim nje pune rutine, ta kodifikojme ne nje grup instruksionesh qe mund te lexohen nga makina, dhe ta shumefishojme nje milion here.
You know, I recently overheard a conversation that epitomizes these new economics. This guy says, "Nah, I don't use H&R Block anymore. TurboTax does everything that my tax preparer did, but it's faster, cheaper and more accurate." How can a skilled worker compete with a $39 piece of software? She can't. Today, millions of Americans do have faster, cheaper, more accurate tax preparation, and the founders of Intuit have done very well for themselves. But 17 percent of tax preparers no longer have jobs. That is a microcosm of what's happening, not just in software and services, but in media and music, in finance and manufacturing, in retailing and trade -- in short, in every industry. People are racing against the machine, and many of them are losing that race.
Kohet e fundit degjova nja bisede qe i epitomizon keto koncepte te reja ekonomike. Njeri thote: Jo, une nuk shkoj me tek H&R Block. TurboTax ben cdo gje qe bente pergatitesi im i taksave, por eshte me e shpejte, me e lire dhe me e sakte". A mund te krahasohet nje punonjes i specializuar me nje software qe kushton $39? Nuk mundet. Sot, miliona Amerikane bejne pergatitje taksash me te lire, me te shpejte dhe me te sakte, dhe themeluesit e Intuit ja kane dale mbane shume mire per veten e tyre. Por 17 per qind e pergatitesve te taksave jane pa pune. Kjo eshte nje mikrobote e asaj qe po ndodh, jo vetem ne software dhe sherbime, por edhe ne media dhe muzike, finance dhe prodhim, dyqane dhe tregeti, shkurt ne cdo industri. Njerezit po bejne gare me makinen, dhe shume prej tyre po e humbasin kete gare.
What can we do to create shared prosperity? The answer is not to try to slow down technology. Instead of racing against the machine, we need to learn to race with the machine. That is our grand challenge.
Cfare mund te bejme qe ta ndajme prosperitetin? Pergjigja ime eshte jo te perpiqemi te ngadalesojme teknologjine. Ne vend qe te bejme gare kunder makines, ne duhet te mesojme te bejme gare me makinen. Kjo eshte sfida jone e madhe.
The new machine age can be dated to a day 15 years ago when Garry Kasparov, the world chess champion, played Deep Blue, a supercomputer. The machine won that day, and today, a chess program running on a cell phone can beat a human grandmaster. It got so bad that, when he was asked what strategy he would use against a computer, Jan Donner, the Dutch grandmaster, replied, "I'd bring a hammer."
Periudha e re e makines filloi nje dite rreth 15 vjet me pare kur Gary Kasparov, kampioni boteror i shahut, luajti me Deep Blue, nje super kompjuter. Makina fitoi ate dite, dhe sot, programi i shahut ne celular e mund nje njeri qe eshte mjeshter. Vajti aq keq sa kur e pyeten cfare strategjie do te perdorte kundra nje kompiuteri, Jan Donner, Mjeshtri i madh Hollandez, u pergjigj, "Do te sillja nje cekic"
(Laughter)
(te qeshura)
But today a computer is no longer the world chess champion. Neither is a human, because Kasparov organized a freestyle tournament where teams of humans and computers could work together, and the winning team had no grandmaster, and it had no supercomputer. What they had was better teamwork, and they showed that a team of humans and computers, working together, could beat any computer or any human working alone. Racing with the machine beats racing against the machine. Technology is not destiny. We shape our destiny.
Por sot nje kompiuter nuk eshte me kampioni boteror i shahut. Nuk eshte as njeriu, sepse Kasparovi organizoi nje tournament me stil te lire ku skuadra me njerez dhe kompiutera mund te punonin se bashku, dhe skuadra fituese nuk kishte as mjeshter te madh as superkompjuter. Ata bene nje pune te mire ne skuader, dhe treguan se nje skuader njerezish dhe kompjuterash, duke punuar se bashku, mund ta mundin cdo kompjuter ose cdo njeri qe punon vetem. Te besh gare bashke me makinen eshte me mire se te besh gare kunder makines. Teknologjia nuk eshte e ardhmja. Ne i japim forme te ardhmes tone.
Thank you.
Faleminderit.
(Applause)
(Duartrokitje)