Do you ever feel completely overwhelmed when you're faced with a complex problem? Well, I hope to change that in less than three minutes. So, I hope to convince you that complex doesn't always equal complicated. So for me, a well-crafted baguette, fresh out of the oven, is complex, but a curry onion green olive poppy cheese bread is complicated. I'm an ecologist, and I study complexity. I love complexity. And I study that in the natural world, the interconnectedness of species.
當你面對著一個複雜的問題時 你是否曾經覺得很不知所措? 我希望能在三分鐘內為此做些改變 因此,我希望說服你其實複雜 並不總是繁雜 對我來說,一個剛出爐的精心烘培法國麵包 是複雜的 但是咖哩綠橄欖罌粟洋蔥起司麵包 是複雜的 我是一個生態學家,我研究複雜性,我愛複雜性 我還研究在自然界中,物種彼此之間的關係
So here's a food web, or a map of feeding links between species that live in Alpine Lakes in the mountains of California. And this is what happens to that food web when it's stocked with non-native fish that never lived there before. All the grayed-out species disappear. Some are actually on the brink of extinction. And lakes with fish have more mosquitos, even though they eat them. These effects were all unanticipated, and yet we're discovering they're predictable.
這是一個食物網 或者是一張食物鏈關聯圖 描述加州高山湖的物種關係 而這是食物網現在的樣子 非原生的魚類大量湧入後 所有灰色的物種消失了 有些瀕臨絕種 有魚的湖會有更多蚊子,雖然魚會吃蚊子 這些影響都是預想不到的 但我們發現他們是可被預測的
So I want to share with you a couple key insights about complexity we're learning from studying nature that maybe are applicable to other problems. First is the simple power of good visualization tools to help untangle complexity and just encourage you to ask questions you didn't think of before. For example, you could plot the flow of carbon through corporate supply chains in a corporate ecosystem, or the interconnections of habitat patches for endangered species in Yosemite National Park. The next thing is that if you want to predict the effect of one species on another, if you focus only on that link, and then you black box the rest, it's actually less predictable than if you step back, consider the entire system -- all the species, all the links -- and from that place, hone in on the sphere of influence that matters most. And we're discovering, with our research, that's often very local to the node you care about within one or two degrees. So the more you step back, embrace complexity, the better chance you have of finding simple answers, and it's often different than the simple answer that you started with.
所以我想要分享幾個想法 關於在自然界學到的複雜性 或許可以沿用到其他問題 首先,視覺化工具所帶來的簡單力量 可以幫助釐清複雜性 並且引導你思考你從未想過的問題 例如,你可以在圖中找出相似處 在生態系統中的一堆關連中 或在優勝美地國家公園 標出瀕絕物種棲息地的關係 其次,如果你想要預測 物種間彼此的影響 如果你只專注那個連結 然後忽略掉其它的 其實是較難預測的 如果你退回上一步,納入整個系統,包括所有物種、關聯 從這裡 把焦點集中在相關的影響範圍 而我們在研究中發現 通常是在你注意的癥結點附近的 一到兩層左右 所以你退的越多,並廣納複雜 你就越有機會找到簡單的答案 而且是和你起先著手的簡單答案不同
So let's switch gears and look at a really complex problem courtesy of the U.S. government. This is a diagram of the U.S. counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan. It was front page of the New York Times a couple months ago. Instantly ridiculed by the media for being so crazy complicated. And the stated goal was to increase popular support for the Afghan government. Clearly a complex problem, but is it complicated? Well, when I saw this in the front page of the Times, I thought, "Great. Finally something I can relate to. I can sink my teeth into this."
現在換個角度,用美國政府來看 真正複雜的問題 這是美國對阿富汗鎮暴策略的示意圖 幾個月前出現在紐約時報頭版 馬上被媒體嘲笑著 因為這張表實在是太過複雜 而他們的目標是為了要聲援 阿富汗政權 這很明顯的是個多重的問題 但它複雜嗎 我看到報紙的這篇頭版時 我心裡想著 "太好了,總算有類似的東西了" "我可以拿出來大講特講"
So let's do it. So here we go for the first time ever, a world premiere view of this spaghetti diagram as an ordered network. The circled node is the one we're trying to influence -- popular support for the government. And so now we can look one degrees, two degrees, three degrees away from that node and eliminate three-quarters of the diagram outside that sphere of influence. Within that sphere, most of those nodes are not actionable, like the harshness of the terrain, and a very small minority are actual military actions. Most are non-violent and they fall into two broad categories: active engagement with ethnic rivalries and religious beliefs and fair, transparent economic development and provisioning of services. I don't know about this, but this is what I can decipher from this diagram in 24 seconds.
來吧,全世界有史以來第一次 要把錯綜複雜的圖表變成有條理的網路 圈起來的癥結點是我們試圖想要去影響 對政府的支持聲浪 因此,我們可以看,第一層,第二層 第三層與結點間的關係 然後去除圖表中的四分之三沒有在範圍裡的影響 在這個範圍中 大部分的結點是不可動的,如險峻的地勢 少數是軍事行動 大部分是非暴力的,並且可分為兩大類別 道德抗爭與宗教信條的激烈交戰 與公平、透明的經濟發展 和糧食供應服務 我不知道這些是什麼,可是我能在24秒內 分析出這些東西
When you see a diagram like this, I don't want you to be afraid. I want you to be excited. I want you to be relieved. Because simple answers may emerge. We're discovering in nature that simplicity often lies on the other side of complexity. So for any problem, the more you can zoom out and embrace complexity, the better chance you have of zooming in on the simple details that matter most.
當你看到一個像這樣的圖表,你不需要感到害怕 我要你覺得開心,感到鬆了一口氣 因為簡單的答案會浮現 我們發現在自然界裡,複雜的反面 其實就是簡單 所以對任何問題,你愈往後退,涵蓋複雜 你愈有機會可以聚焦 在簡單並影響最鉅的細節上
Thank you.
感謝各位
(Applause)
(鼓掌)