Chris Anderson: Elon, what kind of crazy dream would persuade you to think of trying to take on the auto industry and build an all-electric car?
克里斯(Chris Anderson 以下簡稱 C) ︰ 尹隆(Elon以下簡稱E),甚麼樣瘋狂的夢想會讓你想嘗試進入汽車工業進而建造出一台全電動汽車? 克里斯(Chris Anderson 以下簡稱 C) ︰ 尹隆(Elon以下簡稱E),甚麼樣瘋狂的夢想會讓你想嘗試進入汽車工業進而建造出一台全電動汽車? 克里斯(Chris Anderson 以下簡稱 C) ︰ 尹隆(Elon以下簡稱E),甚麼樣瘋狂的夢想會讓你想嘗試進入汽車工業進而建造出一台全電動汽車?
Elon Musk: Well, it goes back to when I was in university. I thought about, what are the problems that are most likely to affect the future of the world or the future of humanity? I think it's extremely important that we have sustainable transport and sustainable energy production. That sort of overall sustainable energy problem is the biggest problem that we have to solve this century, independent of environmental concerns. In fact, even if producing CO2 was good for the environment, given that we're going to run out of hydrocarbons, we need to find some sustainable means of operating.
E︰嗯,這應該要回溯到當我念大學的時,我想到 甚麼樣的問題會影響活在未來世界中的人類之最甚。 E︰嗯,這應該要回溯到當我念大學的時,我想到 甚麼樣的問題會影響活在未來世界中的人類之最甚。 E︰嗯,這應該要回溯到當我念大學的時,我想到 甚麼樣的問題會影響活在未來世界中的人類之最甚。 我認為是極為重要的永續運輸和永續能源製造。 我認為是極為重要的永續運輸和永續能源製造。 這算是這世紀所有永續能源問題中 最大的也最需要解決的問題。 這算是這世紀所有永續能源問題中 最大的也最需要解決的問題。 獨立於所有的環境議題中。 事實上,即便產生二氧化碳(CO2)對環境是好的, 但考慮到我們快用盡碳氫化合物的狀況下, 我們必須找到一些保持運作的永續手段。
CA: Most of American electricity comes from burning fossil fuels. How can an electric car that plugs into that electricity help?
C︰美國大部份的電力來自於燃燒石油燃料。 C︰美國大部份的電力來自於燃燒石油燃料。 那麼需要插電的電動車如何產生效益呢?
EM: Right. There's two elements to that answer. One is that, even if you take the same source fuel and produce power at the power plant and use it to charge electric cars, you're still better off. So if you take, say, natural gas, which is the most prevalent hydrocarbon source fuel, if you burn that in a modern General Electric natural gas turbine, you'll get about 60 percent efficiency. If you put that same fuel in an internal combustion engine car, you get about 20 percent efficiency. And the reason is, in the stationary power plant, you can afford to have something that weighs a lot more, is voluminous, and you can take the waste heat and run a steam turbine and generate a secondary power source. So in effect, even after you've taken transmission loss into account and everything, even using the same source fuel, you're at least twice as better off charging an electric car, then burning it at the power plant.
E︰哦,有兩個元素可以當作答案。 第一個是即便發電廠也取得相同的來源的燃料並產生電力 第一個是即便發電廠也使用相同的來源的燃料並產生電力, 而我們用來替電動車充電,仍然是較好的選擇。 (例如發電的規模經濟因素提升效率...等等。) 因此,假設如果我們用的是天然氣, 同時也是我們最廣泛使用碳氫化合物燃料源。 如果我們在通用電力公司(General Electric) 現代化的天然氣發電渦輪燃燒, 如果我們在通用電力公司(General Electric) 現代化的天然氣發電渦輪燃燒, 我們會得到百分之六十的能源效率。 如果同樣的能源我們在汽車的內燃機燃燒, 我們只能得到百分之二十的能源效率。 而原因在於,我們在發電廠中可以提供 非常多提升燃料價值的方法。 而原因在於,我們在發電廠中可以提供 非常多提升燃料價值的方法。 而原因在於,我們在發電廠中可以提供 非常多提升燃料價值的方法。 我們還可以將浪費掉的熱能 重新送入蒸氣渦輪並成為二度電力的來源。 重新送入蒸氣渦輪並成為二度電力的來源。 因此,當我們採取了任何降低(能量)傳輸的所有手段, 即便是使用相同來源的燃料,在發電廠產電燃後 用來充電動車,我們都可以得到兩倍以上的好處。 即便是使用相同來源的燃料,在發電廠產電燃後 用來充電動車,我們都可以得到兩倍以上的好處。
CA: That scale delivers efficiency.
C︰這樣的規模產生了更高的效率
EM: Yes, it does. And then the other point is, we have to have sustainable means of power generation anyway, electricity generation. So given that we have to solve sustainable electricity generation, then it makes sense for us to have electric cars as the mode of transport.
E︰是的。 另一個觀點是,不論如何我們必須擁有永續產生能源的方法。也就是發電。 另一個觀點是,不論如何我們必須擁有 永續產生能源的方法。也就是發電。 因此,假設我們必須解決永續發電議題, 那麼我們使用電動車當作一種 運輸模式就顯得更合理了。 那麼我們使用電動車當作一種 運輸模式就顯得更合理了。
CA: So we've got some video here of the Tesla being assembled, which, if we could play that first video -- So what is innovative about this process in this vehicle?
C︰哦,我們現在有一些關於 Tesla 組裝過程的影片。 C︰哦,我們現在有一些關於 Tesla 組裝過程的影片。 我們等一下來放一下第一段影片 那麼甚麼是這些過程中的創新呢?
EM: Sure. So, in order to accelerate the advent of electric transport, and I should say that I think, actually, all modes of transport will become fully electric with the ironic exception of rockets. There's just no way around Newton's third law. The question is how do you accelerate the advent of electric transport? And in order to do that for cars, you have to come up with a really energy efficient car, so that means making it incredibly light, and so what you're seeing here is the only all-aluminum body and chassis car made in North America. In fact, we applied a lot of rocket design techniques to make the car light despite having a very large battery pack. And then it also has the lowest drag coefficient of any car of its size. So as a result, the energy usage is very low, and it has the most advanced battery pack, and that's what gives it the range that's competitive, so you can actually have on the order of a 250-mile range.
當然,當我們要加速電動運輸工具的來臨, 或許我應該說,所有的運輸工具模式都將變成全電力的, 或許我應該說,所有的運輸工具模式都將變成全電力的, 當然具有諷刺性的火箭除外。 因為我們無法違反牛頓第三運動定律(反作用力)。 主要的問題是在於我們如何 加速電力運輸工具的來臨。 主要的問題是在於我們如何 加速電力運輸工具的來臨。 如果要達成這個目標,真正具有 能源效率的汽車必須因而問世。 如果要達成這個目標,真正具有 能源效率的汽車必須因而問世。 這代表要把它做的讓人訝異的輕, 如同我們現在看到的, 是唯一全鋁車身並在北美組裝的車殼。 是唯一全鋁車身並在北美組裝的車殼。 事實上,除了大型的電池箱以外, 我們還應用了許多用來設計火箭的科技。 事實上,除了大型的電池箱以外, 我們還應用了許多用來設計火箭的科技。 所以它同時具有所有同型車最低的阻力系數。 所以它同時具有所有同型車最低的阻力系數。 從結果可以看得出來,它的能源消耗量非常的低, 並且具有最先進的電池箱, 也賦予了它在續航力的競爭力, 因此我們可以擁有兩百五十英哩(約四百公里)的續航力。
CA: I mean, those battery packs are incredibly heavy, but you think the math can still work out intelligently -- by combining light body, heavy battery, you can still gain spectacular efficiency.
C︰所以,這些電池箱是如此的重, 但你認為數學能夠聰明地解決這個問題 --透過結合輕的車身和重的電池, 但你認為數學能夠聰明地解決這個問題 --透過結合輕的車身和重的電池, 仍然能得到驚人的效率?
EM: Exactly. The rest of the car has to be very light to offset the mass of the pack, and then you have to have a low drag coefficient so that you have good highway range. And in fact, customers of the Model S are sort of competing with each other to try to get the highest possible range. I think somebody recently got 420 miles out of a single charge.
E︰正是。車子的其他部份必須非常的輕, 用以彌補電池箱的重量。 E︰正是。車子的其他部份必須非常的輕, 用以彌補電池箱的重量。 但仍然必須擁有低的阻力系數才會有好的公路續航力。 事實上,Model S的客戶,算是能與 其他人競爭,並嘗試爭取最高的可能續航力。 事實上,Model S的客戶,算是能與 其他人競爭,並嘗試爭取最高的可能續航力。 事實上,Model S的客戶,算是能與 其他人競爭,並嘗試爭取最高的可能續航力。 我想好像有人最近才剛達到單次充電 跑了420英哩的紀錄。(約675公里左右)
CA: Bruno Bowden, who's here, did that, broke the world record.EM: Congratulations.
C︰布魯諾(Bruno Bowden),剛好在這,打破了世界紀錄。 E︰恭喜!
CA: That was the good news. The bad news was that to do it, he had to drive at 18 miles an hour constant speed and got pulled over by the cops. (Laughter)
C︰那是一個好消息。但壞消息是為了達成 那樣的壯舉,它必須開時速18英哩的固定速度。 C︰那是一個好消息。但壞消息是為了達成 那樣的壯舉,它必須開時速18英哩的固定速度。 而且還被警察攔檢。
EM: I mean, you can certainly drive -- if you drive it 65 miles an hour, under normal conditions, 250 miles is a reasonable number.
E︰當然,我們可以在正常狀況下開到時速65英哩。 E︰當然,我們可以在正常狀況下開到時速65英哩。 E︰當然,我們可以在正常狀況下開到時速65英哩。 250英哩是比較合理的數字。
CA: Let's show that second video showing the Tesla in action on ice. Not at all a dig at The New York Times, this, by the way. What is the most surprising thing about the experience of driving the car?
C︰我們來看第二段影片, 顯示出Tesla正在冰上運作。 並非全然是紐約時報 (New York Time) 寫出來的調侃, 甚麼是開這台車時最讓人驚訝的體驗呢? 甚麼是開這台車時最讓人驚訝的體驗呢?
EM: In creating an electric car, the responsiveness of the car is really incredible. So we wanted really to have people feel as though they've almost got to mind meld with the car, so you just feel like you and the car are kind of one, and as you corner and accelerate, it just happens, like the car has ESP. You can do that with an electric car because of its responsiveness. You can't do that with a gasoline car. I think that's really a profound difference, and people only experience that when they have a test drive.
E︰在創造這臺電動車的時候, 人們針對這台車的反應是相當神奇的。 所以我們要人們感覺到 他們幾乎能和車子心靈相通, 所以我們要人們感覺到 他們幾乎能和車子心靈相通, 所以我們會感覺到我們 和車子幾乎是人車一體。 就如同你在轉彎或是加速的當下,就這樣發生了, 如同車子具有車身穩定系統一樣。 我們可以用電動車自身獨特的反饋做這樣的作動。 但你沒辦法用汽油車完成這樣的作動。 我認為這是具有深遠意義的差別, 而人們只能透過試駕才能感受到那樣的作動。
CA: I mean, this is a beautiful but expensive car. Is there a road map where this becomes a mass-market vehicle?
C︰這真的是一台很美但卻很貴的車。 你們有規劃讓這台車成為大眾市場的交通工具嗎? 你們有規劃讓這台車成為大眾市場的交通工具嗎?
EM: Yeah. The goal of Tesla has always been to have a sort of three-step process, where version one was an expensive car at low volume, version two is medium priced and medium volume, and then version three would be low price, high volume. So we're at step two at this point. So we had a $100,000 sports car, which was the Roadster. Then we've got the Model S, which starts at around 50,000 dollars. And our third generation car, which should hopefully be out in about three or four years will be a $30,000 car. But whenever you've got really new technology, it generally takes about three major versions in order to make it a compelling mass-market product. And so I think we're making progress in that direction, and I feel confident that we'll get there.
E︰當然。Tesla的問世目標需透過三階段步驟。 E︰當然。Tesla的問世目標需透過三階段步驟。 第一階段是少量又昂貴, 第二階段是中等價格又中等數量, 第三階段是低價多量。 而目前我們處在第二階段。 因此我們有10萬美金的跑車,叫作Roadster。 然後我們有Model S大約5萬美金。 而我們第三代車輛,應該有希望在三、四年後問世,價值約三萬美金。 而我們第三代車輛,應該有希望在三、四年後問世,價值約三萬美金。 而我們第三代車輛,應該有希望在三、四年後問世,價值約三萬美金。 但不論何時我們取得像這樣的新科技, 通常來說我們需要這三個主要階段, 才能成為大眾市場的產品。 因此我認為我們目前正朝著這樣的方向前進, 而我感覺到我們會達到目標。
CA: I mean, right now, if you've got a short commute, you can drive, you can get back, you can charge it at home. There isn't a huge nationwide network of charging stations now that are fast. Do you see that coming, really, truly, or just on a few key routes?
C︰所以我們在短程通勤上,可以 靠著這台車往返,並且在家充電。 C︰所以我們在短程通勤上,可以 靠著這台車往返,並且在家充電。 但現在國內沒有這麼大的充電站網絡, 電動車問世的太快了。 你真的覺得充電站網絡會形成嗎? 還是只是幾個主要的幹道?
EM: There actually are far more charging stations than people realize, and at Tesla we developed something called a Supercharging technology, and we're offering that if you buy a Model S for free, forever. And so this is something that maybe a lot of people don't realize. We actually have California and Nevada covered, and we've got the Eastern seaboard from Boston to D.C. covered. By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive from L.A. to New York just using the Supercharger network, which charges at five times the rate of anything else. And the key thing is to have a ratio of drive to stop, to stop time, of about six or seven. So if you drive for three hours, you want to stop for 20 or 30 minutes, because that's normally what people will stop for. So if you start a trip at 9 a.m., by noon you want to stop to have a bite to eat, hit the restroom, coffee, and keep going.
E︰事實上充電站比人們意識到的還要多得多, E︰事實上充電站比人們意識到的還要多得多, 我們也為Tesla設計了一項名為「超級充電科技」。 我們也為Tesla設計了一項名為「超級充電科技」。 如果你買了一臺Model S,我們將終身免費提供給你。 如果你買了一臺Model S,我們將終身免費提供給你。 這也許是很多人沒有意識到的。 我們事實上已提供了加州 (California) 和內華達州 (Nevada) 以及東岸的波士頓 (Boston) 到首都 (D.C.)。 以及東岸的波士頓 (Boston) 到首都 (D.C.)。 在今年底,你可以從洛杉磯 (L.A.) 直接開到紐約 (New York)。 在今年底,你可以從洛杉磯 (L.A.) 直接開到紐約 (New York)。 只要使用我們的超級充電網絡, 平均每趟充五次電左右。 主要在於計算從開車到停止的次數比例, 停車的次數大約在六或七次左右。 因此當你開車約三個小時左右, 你想把停車約20或30分鐘, 這是因為大部份的人都會這麼做的。 所以當你早上九點開始一趟旅程, 正午的時候你想停下來吃個東西、 到洗手間、喝杯咖啡然後繼續前進。 正午的時候你想停下來吃個東西、 到洗手間、喝杯咖啡然後繼續前進。
CA: So your proposition to consumers is, for the full charge, it could take an hour. So it's common -- don't expect to be out of here in 10 minutes. Wait for an hour, but the good news is, you're helping save the planet, and by the way, the electricity is free. You don't pay anything.
C︰所以你給客戶的是,完整的充電,大約一個小時左右。 雖然很常見,不會想只待在那裏十分鐘, 而是等約一個小時,但好消息是, 我們在拯救這個星球。 而且話說回來,電力是不用錢的, 我們不用支付任何一毛。
EM: Actually, what we're expecting is for people to stop for about 20 to 30 minutes, not for an hour. It's actually better to drive for about maybe 160, 170 miles and then stop for half an hour and then keep going. That's the natural cadence of a trip. CA: All right. So this is only one string to your energy bow. You've been working on this solar company SolarCity. What's unusual about that?
E︰事實上,而我們正期待的是 提供人們約20到30分鐘的充電時間,而不是一小時。 E︰事實上,而我們正期待的是 提供人們約20到30分鐘的充電時間,而不是一小時。 大約開了160英哩到170英哩 然後休息半小時再走是比較好的狀況。 大約開了160英哩到170英哩 然後休息半小時再走是比較好的狀況。 大約開了160英哩到170英哩 然後休息半小時再走是比較好的狀況。 這是一趟旅程中自然的規律。 C︰這是你的能源策略最重要的一項了。 你已經花了很多心血在這家 太陽能發電公司「太陽城」有一段時間了。 它有甚麼特別的地方?
EM: Well, as I mentioned earlier, we have to have sustainable electricity production as well as consumption, so I'm quite confident that the primary means of power generation will be solar. I mean, it's really indirect fusion, is what it is. We've got this giant fusion generator in the sky called the sun, and we just need to tap a little bit of that energy for purposes of human civilization. What most people know but don't realize they know is that the world is almost entirely solar-powered already. If the sun wasn't there, we'd be a frozen ice ball at three degrees Kelvin, and the sun powers the entire system of precipitation. The whole ecosystem is solar-powered.
E︰就如同我之前提到的, 如同電力消耗一樣,我們有永續電力生產的問題, 如同電力消耗一樣,我們有永續電力生產的問題, 所以我非常有自信認為最主要的電力生產手段就是太陽能。 所以我非常有自信認為最主要的電力生產手段就是太陽能。 我認為,這本身真的是一種間接核融合作用。 我們把這個在天空中巨大的核融合發電機稱為太陽。 我們只需要截取其中一點點的能量供給給人類文明使用。 我們只需要截取其中一點點的能量供給給人類文明使用。 這其中人們最知道卻不了解的是, 這世界本身幾乎早已就是一個太陽驅動的地方。 這其中人們最知道卻不了解的是,這世界本身幾乎早已就是一個太陽驅動的地方。 如果太陽不在的話,我們會變成卡爾文3度左右結凍的冰球。(約攝氏-270度,幾乎是氮氣分子完全無動能的狀況) 如果太陽不在的話,我們會變成卡爾文3度左右結凍的冰球。(約攝氏-270度,幾乎是氮氣分子完全無動能的狀況) 而太陽能是所有系統中最重要的基礎。 整個生態系統是太陽能驅動的。
CA: But in a gallon of gasoline, you have, effectively, thousands of years of sun power compressed into a small space, so it's hard to make the numbers work right now on solar, and to remotely compete with, for example, natural gas, fracked natural gas. How are you going to build a business here?
C︰但是一加侖的汽油,我們會擁有 數千年太陽能極有效率地加壓在一個小空間中。 C︰但是一加侖的汽油,我們會擁有 數千年太陽能極有效率地加壓在一個小空間中。 C︰但是一加侖的汽油,我們會擁有 數千年太陽能極有效率地加壓在一個小空間中。 所以我們現在去評估太陽能的效率, 並且拿來和天然氣、裂解後的天然氣比較。 你打算怎麼從中建立商業模式? 所以我們現在去評估太陽能的效率, 並且拿來和天然氣、裂解後的天然氣比較。 你打算怎麼從中建立商業模式? 所以我們現在去評估太陽能的效率, 並且拿來和天然氣、裂解後的天然氣比較。 你打算怎麼從中建立商業模式?
EM: Well actually, I'm confident that solar will beat everything, hands down, including natural gas.
E︰哦,事實上,我非常有信心 能輕易打敗所有的東西,包括天然瓦斯在內。 E︰哦,事實上,我非常有信心 能輕易打敗所有的東西,包括天然瓦斯在內。
(Applause)CA: How?
C︰怎麼說?
EM: It must, actually. If it doesn't, we're in deep trouble.
E︰這是一定要的,如果沒有的話我們就慘了。
CA: But you're not selling solar panels to consumers. What are you doing? EM: No, we actually are. You can buy a solar system or you can lease a solar system. Most people choose to lease. And the thing about solar power is that it doesn't have any feed stock or operational costs, so once it's installed, it's just there. It works for decades. It'll work for probably a century. So therefore, the key thing to do is to get the cost of that initial installation low, and then get the cost of the financing low, because that interest -- those are the two factors that drive the cost of solar. And we've made huge progress in that direction, and that's why I'm confident we'll actually beat natural gas.
但是你沒有在賣太陽能板給客戶啊? 你們到底在做些甚麼呢? E︰不,我們事實上是。你可以買一個 太陽能發電系統,或是出租一個太陽能發電系統。 E︰不,我們事實上是。你可以買一個 太陽能發電系統,或是出租一個太陽能發電系統。 大部份的人選擇出租。 而其中關於太陽能發電的是 不用原料或是出營運成本, 只要一次安裝,就都好了。 它能夠運作數十年,將來也許可以運作一個世紀。 因此,最主要的事情是降低初次安裝的成本, 因此,最主要的事情是降低初次安裝的成本, 並且達到最低的財務成本, 因為有趣的是,這兩個重要的因素是推動了太陽能發電的成本。 而且我們已經朝這個方向創造出重大發展。 這也是為什麼我非常有自信我們能夠打敗天然瓦斯。
CA: So your current proposition to consumers is, don't pay so much up front.
C︰所以你們對客戶的主張是,不用付出太大的前置費用。 C︰所以你們對客戶的主張是,不用付出太大的前置費用。
EM: Zero.CA: Pay zero up front. We will install panels on your roof. You will then pay, how long is a typical lease?
E︰零費用。 C︰付出零前置費用。 E︰我們會安裝太陽能板在你的屋頂。 C…然後你再付費,租期大概多久?
EM: Typical leases are 20 years, but the value proposition is, as you're sort of alluding to, quite straightforward. It's no money down, and your utility bill decreases. Pretty good deal.
E︰大約20年左右, 但是它的建議價值是,有點像暗示也可以說很直接。 它不用花錢,而你的使用帳單也降低了。 是一個非常好的交易。
CA: So that seems like a win for the consumer. No risk, you'll pay less than you're paying now. For you, the dream here then is that -- I mean, who owns the electricity from those panels for the longer term? I mean, how do you, the company, benefit?
C︰所以這看起來像是讓消費者贏的交易。 沒有風險,你現在會比過去付的更少。 對你來說,這樣的夢想代表著, 誰長久的擁有來自於太陽能板的電力? 我的意思是說,公司的利潤來源從何而來?
EM: Well, essentially, SolarCity raises a chunk of capital from say, a company or a bank. Google is one of our big partners here. And they have an expected return on that capital. With that capital, SolarCity purchases and installs the panel on the roof and then charges the homeowner or business owner a monthly lease payment, which is less than the utility bill.
E︰哦,簡單來說, 太陽城從一些地方募集資本, 舉個例,一家公司或是銀行。 Google就是我們其中的合作夥伴之一。 而他們也期待這小塊資本能夠產生報酬。 有了這樣的資本,太陽城就能買更多安裝在屋頂的太陽能板。 並且每個月向家戶或是企業主收租, 這樣的租金少於水電帳單。 並且每個月向家戶或是企業主收租, 這樣的租金少於水電帳單
CA: But you yourself get a long-term commercial benefit from that power. You're kind of building a new type of distributed utility.
C︰但是你可以從這樣的電力獲取長期商業利益。 你有點像是正在創造一個新型態的使用者通路。
EM: Exactly. What it amounts to is a giant distributed utility. I think it's a good thing, because utilities have been this monopoly, and people haven't had any choice. So effectively it's the first time there's been competition for this monopoly, because the utilities have been the only ones that owned those power distribution lines, but now it's on your roof. So I think it's actually very empowering for homeowners and businesses.
E︰正是,這其中必須歸功於這樣具大的公用事業通路。 E︰正是,這其中必須歸功於這樣具大的公用事業通路。 我認為這是好事,因為公用事業 如此的壟斷,人們就沒有任何選擇。 我認為這是好事,因為公用事業 如此的壟斷,人們就沒有任何選擇。 非常有效,這是第一次在這樣的 壟斷市場有了競爭狀況, 非常有效,這是第一次在這樣的 壟斷市場有了競爭狀況, 因為公用事業被配電商所擁有, 但現在卻在你的屋頂。 因為公用事業被配電商所擁有, 但現在卻在你的屋頂。 所以我認為這真的對家戶和企業是非常強大。 所以我認為這真的對家戶和企業是非常強大。
CA: And you really picture a future where a majority of power in America, within a decade or two, or within your lifetime, it goes solar?
C︰這真的讓你描繪出美國主要電力發展的未來, C︰這真的讓你描繪出美國主要電力發展的未來, 在你這輩子,或是十年、二十年後, 未來會變成太陽能發電嗎?
EM: I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power, and most likely a majority, and I predict it will be a plurality in less than 20 years. I made that bet with someone —CA: Definition of plurality is?
E︰我有極度的自信,太陽能至少會 成為大量電力來源,很有可能成為主要電力來源。 E︰我有極度的自信,太陽能至少會 成為大量電力來源,很有可能成為主要電力來源。 而且我預測20年內會成為多數使用來源。 我曾和有些人這樣打賭 。 C︰大量的定義是?
EM: More from solar than any other source.
E︰來自於太陽能的電力將超越其他發電來源。
CA: Ah. Who did you make the bet with?
C︰哦,你和誰打賭?
EM: With a friend who will remain nameless.
E︰一個不願具名的朋友 XD。
CA: Just between us. (Laughter)
C︰這是我們兩人之間的秘密。
EM: I made that bet, I think, two or three years ago, so in roughly 18 years, I think we'll see more power from solar than any other source.
E︰我想我應該是兩、三年前作這樣的打賭, 所以大約還有十八年。 我想我們會看到比其他發電來源還更多的太陽能發電。
CA: All right, so let's go back to another bet that you made with yourself, I guess, a kind of crazy bet. You'd made some money from the sale of PayPal. You decided to build a space company. Why on Earth would someone do that? (Laughter)
C︰好的,我們來看看你和自己打的 另外一個賭,我想那是一個瘋狂的賭注。 C︰好的,我們來看看你和自己打的 另外一個賭,我想那是一個瘋狂的賭注。 你賣掉Paypal賺了一些錢。 你卻決定去建立一個太空公司? 為甚麼地球上有人會作出這種事情? ^_^
EM: I got that question a lot, that's true. People would say, "Did you hear the joke about the guy who made a small fortune in the space industry?" Obviously, "He started with a large one," is the punchline. And so I tell people, well, I was trying to figure out the fastest way to turn a large fortune into a small one. And they'd look at me, like, "Is he serious?"
E︰我常常被人這樣問,這是真的。 他們會說「你聽過關於一個人從 太空工業得到小小財富的笑話嗎?」 他們會說「你聽過關於一個人從 太空工業得到小小財富的笑話嗎?」 顯然地,笑點會是在「他是從一個大財富開始的」。 而我會告訴這些人,我曾尋找一個 最快的方法將大量的財富變成很小的財富。 而我會告訴這些人,我曾尋找一個 最快的方法將大量的財富變成很小的財富。 然後他們的會看著我,表情就好像說「你是認真的嗎?」
CA: And strangely, you were. So what happened?
C︰你真的很奇怪。然後呢?
EM: It was a close call. Things almost didn't work out. We came very close to failure, but we managed to get through that point in 2008. The goal of SpaceX is to try to advance rocket technology, and in particular to try to crack a problem that I think is vital for humanity to become a space-faring civilization, which is to have a rapidly and fully reusable rocket.
E︰這真的非常險。事情差點就泡湯。 我們曾經差一點就失敗。 但我們在2008年的時候安然度過危機。 SpaceX 的目標是透過 解決一些障礙或問題 發展先進火箭科技。 SpaceX 的目標是透過 解決一些障礙或問題 發展先進火箭科技。 而我認為這對人類發展 成為太空文明的重要關鍵, 而我認為這對人類發展 成為太空文明的重要關鍵, 也就是可以馬上可以重複使用的火箭。
CA: Would humanity become a space-faring civilization? So that was a dream of yours, in a way, from a young age? You've dreamed of Mars and beyond?
C︰人類真的會發展成為太空文明嗎? 所以這是你的其中一個夢想,是在年輕的時候, 你曾夢想到火星或是其他的嗎?
EM: I did build rockets when I was a kid, but I didn't think I'd be involved in this. It was really more from the standpoint of what are the things that need to happen in order for the future to be an exciting and inspiring one? And I really think there's a fundamental difference, if you sort of look into the future, between a humanity that is a space-faring civilization, that's out there exploring the stars, on multiple planets, and I think that's really exciting, compared with one where we are forever confined to Earth until some eventual extinction event.
E︰我小時後的確建造了一個火箭, 但我卻沒想過我會牽涉其中。 對一個令人期待又激昂的未來而言, 這真的遠遠超越了事情本身成為結果的必需性。 對一個令人期待又激昂的未來而言, 這真的遠遠超越了事情本身成為結果的必需性。 對一個令人期待又激昂的未來而言, 這真的遠遠超越了事情本身成為結果的必需性。 而我真的認為,如果我們真正的去想想未來, 那裏將會有一個重大的差異介於人類與太空文明之間。 而我真的認為,如果我們真正的去想想未來, 那裏將會有一個重大的差異介於人類與太空文明之間。 而我真的認為,如果我們真正的去想想未來, 那裏將會有一個重大的差異介於人類與太空文明之間。 就在探索星星的那一端,或是其他星球上, 而這和永久侷限在地球上直到絕對會發生的滅絕相比, 我認為這真的令人振奮。 而這和永久侷限在地球上直到絕對會發生的滅絕相比, 我認為這真的令人振奮。 而這和永久侷限在地球上直到絕對會發生的滅絕相比, 我認為這真的令人振奮。
CA: So you've somehow slashed the cost of building a rocket by 75 percent, depending on how you calculate it. How on Earth have you done that? NASA has been doing this for years. How have you done this?
C︰所以你憑自己的算計,用了某種方法削減了建造火箭的75%成本,你是怎麼在地球上辦到這件事情的? C︰所以你憑自己的算計,用了某種方法削減了建造火箭的75%成本,你是怎麼在地球上辦到這件事情的? C︰所以你憑自己的算計,用了某種方法削減了建造火箭的75%成本,你是怎麼在地球上辦到這件事情的? NASA已經做這件事很久了,你是如何做到的?
EM: Well, we've made significant advances in the technology of the airframe, the engines, the electronics and the launch operation. There's a long list of innovations that we've come up with there that are a little difficult to communicate in this talk, but --
E︰這,我們曾在飛行器架構、引擎、電子用品和發射運作上創造出顯著的成長。 E︰這,我們曾在飛行器架構、引擎、電子用品和發射運作上創造出顯著的成長。 E︰這,我們曾在飛行器架構、引擎、電子用品和發射運作上創造出顯著的成長。 我們在那裏所想出來的東西,在這裡是很難說完、一個列不完的創新啊。 我們在那裏所想出來的東西,在這裡是很難說完、一個列不完的創新啊。 我們在那裏所想出來的東西,在這裡是很難說完、一個列不完的創新啊...
CA: Not least because you could still get copied, right? You haven't patented this stuff. It's really interesting to me.
C︰那是因為你仍然可能會被抄襲吧? 但你卻沒有申請專利。這真的讓我很感興趣。
EM: No, we don't patent.CA: You didn't patent because you think it's more dangerous to patent than not to patent.
E︰是的,我們沒有申請專利。 C︰你們沒有申請專利是認為有專利比沒有專利危險。 C︰你們沒有申請專利是認為有專利比沒有專利危險。
EM: Since our primary competitors are national governments, the enforceability of patents is questionable.(Laughter) (Applause)
E︰想當然爾我們主要的競爭對手是國家政府部門, 所以我們認為專利權的強制性是非常啟人疑竇的。
CA: That's really, really interesting. But the big innovation is still ahead, and you're working on it now. Tell us about this.
C︰顯然而見,是真的很有意思。 但是大創新仍然領頭,你們現在也不斷的研發,能和我多說一些嗎? 但是大創新仍然領頭,你們現在也不斷的研發,能和我多說一些嗎?
EM: Right, so the big innovation—
E︰好吧,所謂的大創新就是...
CA: In fact, let's roll that video and you can talk us through it, what's happening here.
C︰這樣好了,我們來放一些影片同時,你可以和我們說那邊是怎麼樣子。
EM: Absolutely. So the thing about rockets is that they're all expendable. All rockets that fly today are fully expendable. The space shuttle was an attempt at a reusable rocket, but even the main tank of the space shuttle was thrown away every time, and the parts that were reusable took a 10,000-person group nine months to refurbish for flight. So the space shuttle ended up costing a billion dollars per flight. Obviously that doesn't work very well for —
E︰當然。所以關於火箭就是他們全部是消耗品。 E︰當然。所以關於火箭就是他們全部是消耗品。 所有現在在用的火箭都是消耗品。 而太空梭是一個企圖設計成可回收的火箭。 但太空梭主要的油箱每次都會被丟掉, 但是這一塊是可以重複使用的, 但是要一個一萬人的團體花九個月才可以重新用來飛行。 造成每次太空飛行的成本會花上百萬美元。 顯然這並不是非常好...
CA: What just happened there? We just saw something land?
C︰影片上是怎樣了?我們好像看到甚麼東西降落。
EM: That's right. So it's important that the rocket stages be able to come back, to be able to return to the launch site and be ready to launch again within a matter of hours.
E︰是的,讓各節火箭可以回收是很重要的,讓火箭回到發射區後還可以在數小時內馬上重新發射。 E︰是的,讓各節火箭可以回收是很重要的,讓火箭回到發射區後還可以在數小時內馬上重新發射。 E︰是的,讓各節火箭可以回收是很重要的,讓火箭回到發射區後還可以在數小時內馬上重新發射。
CA: Wow. Reusable rockets.EM: Yes. (Applause) And so what a lot of people don't realize is, the cost of the fuel, of the propellant, is very small. It's much like on a jet. So the cost of the propellant is about .3 percent of the cost of the rocket. So it's possible to achieve, let's say, roughly 100-fold improvement in the cost of spaceflight if you can effectively reuse the rocket. That's why it's so important. Every mode of transport that we use, whether it's planes, trains, automobiles, bikes, horses, is reusable, but not rockets. So we must solve this problem in order to become a space-faring civilization.
C︰哇!可重複使用的火箭。 E︰是的! E︰而人們不了解的事情是, 推動火箭的燃料成本是非常的低的。 差不多就和噴射機一樣。 而推動的成本約占整個火箭成本的0.3% 而推動的成本約占整個火箭成本的0.3% 因此是很容易達成的,舉個例, 如果我們可以有效的重複使用火箭, 那麼太空飛行的成本就可以改善大約100倍。 如果我們可以有效的重複使用火箭, 那麼太空飛行的成本就可以改善大約100倍。 這是為什麼重複使用是這麼重要的原因。 每一種我們正在使用運輸的模式, 不論是飛機、火車、汽車、腳踏車、馬匹都是可以重複使用的,但偏偏就不是火箭。 不論是飛機、火車、汽車、腳踏車、馬匹都是可以重複使用的,但偏偏就不是火箭。 若我們要邁向太空文明,就必須要解決這樣的問題。
CA: You asked me the question earlier of how popular traveling on cruises would be if you had to burn your ships afterward.EM: Certain cruises are apparently highly problematic.
C︰你先前有問我一個問題,是說如果一條受歡迎遊輪航線,如果我們每次去完以後都必須把遊輪燒掉會變得怎麼樣? C︰你先前有問我一個問題,是說如果一條受歡迎遊輪航線,如果我們每次去完以後都必須把遊輪燒掉會變得怎麼樣? E︰這樣的船顯然的就有很大的問題。
CA: Definitely more expensive. So that's potentially absolutely disruptive technology, and, I guess, paves the way for your dream to actually take, at some point, to take humanity to Mars at scale. You'd like to see a colony on Mars.
C︰絕對是非常貴的! 所以必然潛藏一個絕對顛覆性的科技,我猜,它在某些層面上也為你讓人們能夠有規模的上火星的夢想鋪路。 所以必然潛藏一個絕對顛覆性的科技,我猜,它在某些層面上也為你讓人們能夠有規模的上火星的夢想鋪路。 所以必然潛藏一個絕對顛覆性的科技,我猜,它在某些層面上也為你讓人們能夠有規模的上火星的夢想鋪路。 你願意看到火星上的殖民就是了。
EM: Yeah, exactly. SpaceX, or some combination of companies and governments, needs to make progress in the direction of making life multi-planetary, of establishing a base on another planet, on Mars -- being the only realistic option -- and then building that base up until we're a true multi-planet species.
E︰是的,正是,SpaceX就是民營公司和政府的結合,就是要推動一個能在很多星球注入生命的大方向。 E︰是的,正是,SpaceX就是民營公司和政府的結合,就是要推動一個能在很多星球注入生命的大方向。 E︰是的,正是,SpaceX就是民營公司和政府的結合,就是要推動一個能在很多星球注入生命的大方向。 並且在其中設立另一個基地登陸另一個星球, 上火星,成為一個最實際的選項, 然後我們將會建立很多基地, 直到我們真的成為一個跨星球的物種。
CA: So progress on this "let's make it reusable," how is that going? That was just a simulation video we saw. How's it going?
C︰所以現在「讓火箭可重複使用吧!」的計畫運作的如何?剛剛我們看的是不是只是一個模擬影片? C︰所以現在「讓火箭可重複使用吧!」的計畫運作的如何?剛剛我們看的是不是只是一個模擬影片? C︰所以現在「讓火箭可重複使用吧!」的計畫運作的如何?剛剛我們看的是不是只是一個模擬影片?
EM: We're actually, we've been making some good progress recently with something we call the Grasshopper Test Project, where we're testing the vertical landing portion of the flight, the sort of terminal portion which is quite tricky. And we've had some good tests.
E︰我們透過「蚱蜢測試計畫」(Grasshopper Test Project)現在已經做出重大發展, E︰我們透過「蚱蜢測試計畫」(Grasshopper Test Project)現在已經做出重大發展, 我們正在測試垂直降落的部分, 算是比較棘手的最終階段的部分。 而我們已經有了很好的測試結果。
CA: Can we see that?EM: Yeah. So that's just to give a sense of scale. We dressed a cowboy as Johnny Cash and bolted the mannequin to the rocket. (Laughter)
C︰我們可以看看嗎? E︰當然。 E︰這是一個比例的概念 我們將牛仔扮成Johnny Cash的樣子 並將他固定在火箭上。
CA: All right, let's see that video then, because this is actually amazing when you think about it. You've never seen this before. A rocket blasting off and then --
C︰哦,我們來看看影片先, 想到這個是真的太令人訝異了。 你從來沒看過這個。一個火箭發射,然後...
EM: Yeah, so that rocket is about the size of a 12-story building. (Rocket launch) So now it's hovering at about 40 meters, and it's constantly adjusting the angle, the pitch and yaw of the main engine, and maintaining roll with cold gas thrusters.
E︰所以火箭的大小約為12層樓高。 E︰所以火箭的大小約為12層樓高。 (火箭發射) 現在大約達到40公尺左右,而且持續在調整角度和主要引擎偏角與投射。 現在大約達到40公尺左右,而且持續在調整角度和主要引擎偏角與投射。 現在大約達到40公尺左右,而且持續在調整角度和主要引擎偏角與投射。 並且用煤炭瓦斯閥保持運作。
CA: How cool is that? (Applause) Elon, how have you done this? These projects are so -- Paypal, SolarCity, Tesla, SpaceX, they're so spectacularly different, they're such ambitious projects at scale. How on Earth has one person been able to innovate in this way? What is it about you?
C︰真的很酷啊! 艾隆(Elon),你怎麼做到的? 這些計畫都很...Paypal、太陽城、Telsa、SpaceX,他們都如此與眾不同。 這些計畫都很...Paypal、太陽城、Tesla、SpaceX,他們都如此與眾不同。 這些真的都是極具規模與野心的計畫。 地球上怎麼會有如此一個人能創新到這樣呢? 地球上怎麼會有如此一個人能創新到這樣呢? 到底甚麼你是甚麼樣的人呢?
EM: I don't know, actually. I don't have a good answer for you. I work a lot. I mean, a lot.
E︰我自己也不知道。 我想我没有好的答案給你。 我一直持續工作,真的很多工作。
CA: Well, I have a theory.EM: Okay. All right.
C︰我對你有一個理論。 E︰哦?
CA: My theory is that you have an ability to think at a system level of design that pulls together design, technology and business, so if TED was TBD, design, technology and business, into one package, synthesize it in a way that very few people can and -- and this is the critical thing -- feel so damn confident in that clicked-together package that you take crazy risks. You bet your fortune on it, and you seem to have done that multiple times. I mean, almost no one can do that. Is that -- could we have some of that secret sauce? Can we put it into our education system? Can someone learn from you? It is truly amazing what you've done.
C︰我的理論是你可以用系統等級的思考能力去結合這些設計、科技和商業, C︰我的理論是你可以用系統等級的思考能力去結合這些設計、科技和商業, C︰我的理論是你可以用系統等級的思考能力去結合這些設計、科技和商業, 如果TED是TBD也就是設計、科技和商業形成一體的話, 如果TED是TBD也就是設計、科技和商業形成一體的話, 很少人能夠結合這些後自成一格,也是最重要的事情,感到無比的自信,並將它放在一個組合中,然後去承擔一些瘋狂的風險。 很少人能夠結合這些後自成一格,也是最重要的事情,感到無比的自信,並將它放在一個組合中,然後去承擔一些瘋狂的風險。 很少人能夠結合這些後自成一格,也是最重要的事情,感到無比的自信,並將它放在一個組合中,然後去承擔一些瘋狂的風險。 你幾乎把自己的財富賭上去了,而且看起來已經作過好幾次。 我是說,幾乎沒有人能作到這種事情。 你可以分享一些秘密給我們嗎? 我們可以將它放在我們的教育系統嗎?有人可以從妳身上學習到東西嗎? 你的成就是真的讓人感到驚訝。
EM: Well, thanks. Thank you. Well, I do think there's a good framework for thinking. It is physics. You know, the sort of first principles reasoning. Generally I think there are -- what I mean by that is, boil things down to their fundamental truths and reason up from there, as opposed to reasoning by analogy. Through most of our life, we get through life by reasoning by analogy, which essentially means copying what other people do with slight variations. And you have to do that. Otherwise, mentally, you wouldn't be able to get through the day. But when you want to do something new, you have to apply the physics approach. Physics is really figuring out how to discover new things that are counterintuitive, like quantum mechanics. It's really counterintuitive. So I think that's an important thing to do, and then also to really pay attention to negative feedback, and solicit it, particularly from friends. This may sound like simple advice, but hardly anyone does that, and it's incredibly helpful.
E︰呵呵,謝啦。感謝你。 我相信有一種很好的思考架構。 那就是物理。你知道的,有點像是論證的第一原則。 我想我在這裡真正能作的是去思考一些基礎的真理, 並且從中去論證,而不是用類推的。 我想我在這裡真正能作的是去思考一些基礎的真理, 並且從中去論證,而不是用類推的。 我想我在這裡真正能作的是去思考一些基礎的真理, 並且從中去論證,而不是用類推的。 我想我在這裡真正能作的是去思考一些基礎的真理, 並且從中去論證,而不是用類推的。 我們絕大多數時候都用類推在生活著, 我們絕大多數時候都用類推在生活著, 也就是模仿別人做的事並加以微幅更動。 我們也必須這麼做。 不然,心理上,我們是沒辦法度過每一天。 而當你想要做一些新的東西時, 你必須應用物理思考。 物理真的是一門理解如何發現常理 無法解釋的事情的方法,如同量子力學, 物理真的是一門理解如何發現常理 無法解釋的事情的方法,如同量子力學, 是真的有違常理。 所以我想重要是我們將注意力 放在負面回饋,找到他,特別是從朋友們。 所以我想重要是我們將注意力 放在負面回饋,找到他,特別是從朋友們。 所以我想重要是我們將注意力 放在負面回饋,找到他,特別是從朋友們。 這聽起來是很簡單的建議, 但卻很少人做到。 但這真的是非常有幫助的。
CA: Boys and girls watching, study physics. Learn from this man. Elon Musk, I wish we had all day, but thank you so much for coming to TED.
C︰孩子們注意,去學物理,向這個人學習。 C︰孩子們注意,去學物理,向這個人學習。 艾隆(Elon Musk),我真的希望 我們有整天的時間談。謝謝你今天來到TED。
EM: Thank you. CA: That was awesome. That was really, really cool. Look at that. (Applause)
E︰謝謝。 C︰真的太神奇了,非常酷。 看看!
Just take a bow. That was fantastic. Thank you so much.
敬個禮吧。 太感謝了。