Chris Anderson: Elon, what kind of crazy dream would persuade you to think of trying to take on the auto industry and build an all-electric car?
Kris Anderson: Ilone, kakav suludi san vas je doveo do toga da pomislite da pokušate da uđete u auto industriju i napravite potpuno električni automobil?
Elon Musk: Well, it goes back to when I was in university. I thought about, what are the problems that are most likely to affect the future of the world or the future of humanity? I think it's extremely important that we have sustainable transport and sustainable energy production. That sort of overall sustainable energy problem is the biggest problem that we have to solve this century, independent of environmental concerns. In fact, even if producing CO2 was good for the environment, given that we're going to run out of hydrocarbons, we need to find some sustainable means of operating.
Ilon Mask: To se desilo još dok sam bio na fakultetu. Razmišljao sam o problemima koji će najverovatnije zadesiti svet u budućnosti i budućnost čovečanstva. Mislim da je izuzetno važno da imamo održivi prevoz i održivu proizvodnju energije. Taj problem sveobuhvatne održivosti energije je najveći problem koji moramo da rešimo u ovom veku nezavisno od ekoloških interesa. Čak iako je proizvodnja CO2 dobra za okolinu, budući da ćemo ostati bez ugljovodonika, potrebno nam je da pronađemo neki održivi način delovanja.
CA: Most of American electricity comes from burning fossil fuels. How can an electric car that plugs into that electricity help?
KA: Većina struje u SAD dolazi od sagorevanja fosilnih goriva. Kako jedan električni automobil koji koristi tu struju može da pomogne?
EM: Right. There's two elements to that answer. One is that, even if you take the same source fuel and produce power at the power plant and use it to charge electric cars, you're still better off. So if you take, say, natural gas, which is the most prevalent hydrocarbon source fuel, if you burn that in a modern General Electric natural gas turbine, you'll get about 60 percent efficiency. If you put that same fuel in an internal combustion engine car, you get about 20 percent efficiency. And the reason is, in the stationary power plant, you can afford to have something that weighs a lot more, is voluminous, and you can take the waste heat and run a steam turbine and generate a secondary power source. So in effect, even after you've taken transmission loss into account and everything, even using the same source fuel, you're at least twice as better off charging an electric car, then burning it at the power plant.
IM: Odgovor na to se sastoji iz dva dela. Prvi je, da čak iako uzmemo isto izvorno gorivo i proizvedemo energiju u elektrani i tu energiju koristimo za punjenje električnih automobila, rezultat je bolji. Ako uzmemo, na primer, prirodni gas, koji je najrasprostranjeniji izvor ugljovodonika, i ako ga sagorimo u modernoj Dženeral Elektrik turbini za prirodni gas, dobijamo efikasnost od oko 60 procenata. Ako isto to gorivo sipamo u automobil sa motorom sa unutrašnjim sagorevanjem dobijamo efikasnost od oko 20 procenata. Uzrok tome je da u zgradi elektrane možemo da imamo nešto što teži mnogo više, nešto velikog obima i možemo višak toplote da iskoristimo za pokretanje parnih turbina i stvaranje sekundarnog izvora energije. I zato, čak i kada uračunamo gubitak tokom prenosa, čak i upotrebom istog izvora goriva, punjenjem električnog automobila korist je dvostruka ako se sagorevanje vrši u elektrani.
CA: That scale delivers efficiency.
KA: Veličina doprinosi efikasnosti.
EM: Yes, it does. And then the other point is, we have to have sustainable means of power generation anyway, electricity generation. So given that we have to solve sustainable electricity generation, then it makes sense for us to have electric cars as the mode of transport.
IM: Tako je. Druga stvar jeste da uopšteno moramo da imamo održivi način proizvodnje energije, proizvodnje struje. Ako već moramo da smislimo održiv način proizvodnje struje, onda je logično da nam električni automobili budu prevozno sredstvo.
CA: So we've got some video here of the Tesla being assembled, which, if we could play that first video -- So what is innovative about this process in this vehicle?
KA: Imamo jedan video ovde o sklapanju "Tesle", možemo li da vidimo taj prvi video - Šta je inovativno u ovom vozilu?
EM: Sure. So, in order to accelerate the advent of electric transport, and I should say that I think, actually, all modes of transport will become fully electric with the ironic exception of rockets. There's just no way around Newton's third law. The question is how do you accelerate the advent of electric transport? And in order to do that for cars, you have to come up with a really energy efficient car, so that means making it incredibly light, and so what you're seeing here is the only all-aluminum body and chassis car made in North America. In fact, we applied a lot of rocket design techniques to make the car light despite having a very large battery pack. And then it also has the lowest drag coefficient of any car of its size. So as a result, the energy usage is very low, and it has the most advanced battery pack, and that's what gives it the range that's competitive, so you can actually have on the order of a 250-mile range.
IM: Kako bismo ubrzali napredak električnog prevoza i moram reći da zapravo smatram da će sva prevozna sredstva u budućnosti postati u potpunosti električna sa ironičnim izuzetkom raketa. Prosto nema načina da se izbegne Njutnov treći zakon. Pitanje je: kako ubrzati napredak električnog prevoza? Kako bismo to uradili sa automobilima, moramo da smislimo automobil koji je izuzetno energetski efikasan, što znači da on mora da bude izuzetno lak i ono što sada ovde vidite je jedini automobil napravljen u Severnoj Americi čije su telo i šasija u celini napravljeni od aluminijuma. Primenili smo mnoge od tehnika koje se koriste u dizajnu raketa kako bismo automobil napravili lakim uprkos velikom akumulatoru. I on ima i najniži koeficijent otpora među automobilima iste veličine. Kao rezultat, on troši veoma malo energije i ima veoma napredan akumulator i zbog toga je konkurentan, on može da ima domet od čak oko 400km.
CA: I mean, those battery packs are incredibly heavy, but you think the math can still work out intelligently -- by combining light body, heavy battery, you can still gain spectacular efficiency.
KA: Ti akumulatori su neverovatno teški, ali smatrate da će kalkulacije ipak biti tačne - i ako se iskombinuju lako telo i težak akumulator, možemo dobiti spektakularnu efikasnost.
EM: Exactly. The rest of the car has to be very light to offset the mass of the pack, and then you have to have a low drag coefficient so that you have good highway range. And in fact, customers of the Model S are sort of competing with each other to try to get the highest possible range. I think somebody recently got 420 miles out of a single charge.
IM: Upravo tako. Ostali delovi automobila moraju da budu veoma lagani kako bi nadomestili za težinu akumulatora i potreban nam je nizak koeficijent otpora, kako bi domet na auto putu bio dobar. Vlasnici Modela S se na neki način takmiče jedni s drugima pokušavajući da postignu najveći mogući domet. Mislim da je nedavno neko dostigao 675km sa jednim punjenjem.
CA: Bruno Bowden, who's here, did that, broke the world record.EM: Congratulations.
KA: Bruno Bouden, koji je ovde, je to postigao, oborio je svetski rekord. IM: Čestitam.
CA: That was the good news. The bad news was that to do it, he had to drive at 18 miles an hour constant speed and got pulled over by the cops. (Laughter)
KA: To su bile lepe vesti. Loša vest je da kako bi to uradio, bilo je potrebno da održava brzinu od 30km na sat i zaustavila ga je policija. (Smeh)
EM: I mean, you can certainly drive -- if you drive it 65 miles an hour, under normal conditions, 250 miles is a reasonable number.
IM: Možete da vozite - ukoliko vozite 100km na sat u normalnim uslovima 400 kilometara je razuman broj.
CA: Let's show that second video showing the Tesla in action on ice. Not at all a dig at The New York Times, this, by the way. What is the most surprising thing about the experience of driving the car?
KA: Hajde da vidimo drugi video koji pokazuje "Teslu" u akciji na ledu. Ništa na račun "Njujork Tajmsa", samo da napomenem. Šta je najzanimljivija stvar u vezi sa iskustvom vožnje ovog automobila?
EM: In creating an electric car, the responsiveness of the car is really incredible. So we wanted really to have people feel as though they've almost got to mind meld with the car, so you just feel like you and the car are kind of one, and as you corner and accelerate, it just happens, like the car has ESP. You can do that with an electric car because of its responsiveness. You can't do that with a gasoline car. I think that's really a profound difference, and people only experience that when they have a test drive.
IM: Kod stvaranja električnog automobila odziv automobila je zaista neverovatan. Želeli smo da se ljudi osećaju kao da su umom povezani s kolima, kao da su oni i kola jedno i dok skrećemo i ubzavamo, to se naprosto desi, kao da automobil ima šesto čulo. Sa električnim automobilom je to moguće zbog brzog odziva. To nije moguće sa automobilom na benzin. Mislim da je to osnovna razlika koju ljudi iskuse tek kada odu na probnu vožnju.
CA: I mean, this is a beautiful but expensive car. Is there a road map where this becomes a mass-market vehicle?
KA: Ovo je predivan, ali i skup automobil. Da li će u nekom trenutku on postati vozilo za masovno tržište?
EM: Yeah. The goal of Tesla has always been to have a sort of three-step process, where version one was an expensive car at low volume, version two is medium priced and medium volume, and then version three would be low price, high volume. So we're at step two at this point. So we had a $100,000 sports car, which was the Roadster. Then we've got the Model S, which starts at around 50,000 dollars. And our third generation car, which should hopefully be out in about three or four years will be a $30,000 car. But whenever you've got really new technology, it generally takes about three major versions in order to make it a compelling mass-market product. And so I think we're making progress in that direction, and I feel confident that we'll get there.
IM: Da. Plan "Tesle" je oduvek bio da se ovaj proces sastoji iz tri koraka, gde je prva verzija skup automobil, male zapremine, druga verzija automobil prosečne cene i zapremine, a treća verzija automobil niske cene i velike zapremine. Mi smo sada u drugoj fazi. Imali smo "Rodster", sportski automobil po ceni od 100.000 dolara. Zatim Model S, čija cena počinje oko 50.000 dolara. Treća generacija automobila, koja bi trebalo da izađe za oko tri-četiri godine biće automobil od 30.000 dolara. Kad god je u pitanju zaista nova tehnologija, potrebne su u proseku tri različite verzije kako bi se napravio zadovoljavajući proizvod za masovno tržište. Mislim da napredujemo u tom pravcu i uveren sam da ćemo dotle i stići.
CA: I mean, right now, if you've got a short commute, you can drive, you can get back, you can charge it at home. There isn't a huge nationwide network of charging stations now that are fast. Do you see that coming, really, truly, or just on a few key routes?
KA: U ovom trenutku, ukoliko je u pitanju kratka putanja, možete da se odvezete, vratite i napunite automobil kod kuće. Ne postoji ogromna mreža stanica za brzo punjenje širom zemlje. Da li mislite da će toga biti, zaista, u stvarnosti ili će ih biti samo na nekoliko ključnih putanja?
EM: There actually are far more charging stations than people realize, and at Tesla we developed something called a Supercharging technology, and we're offering that if you buy a Model S for free, forever. And so this is something that maybe a lot of people don't realize. We actually have California and Nevada covered, and we've got the Eastern seaboard from Boston to D.C. covered. By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive from L.A. to New York just using the Supercharger network, which charges at five times the rate of anything else. And the key thing is to have a ratio of drive to stop, to stop time, of about six or seven. So if you drive for three hours, you want to stop for 20 or 30 minutes, because that's normally what people will stop for. So if you start a trip at 9 a.m., by noon you want to stop to have a bite to eat, hit the restroom, coffee, and keep going.
IM: U stvari postoji mnogo više stanica za punjenje nego što ljudi uviđaju, a za "Teslu" smo razvili nešto što se zove "tehnologija superpunjenja" i nudimo to ako kupite Model S besplatno, zauvek. To je nešto što verovatno mnogo ljudi ne uviđa. Pokrili smo Kaliforniju i Nevadu i pokrili smo istočnu obalu od Bostona do Vašingtona. Do kraja ove godine moći ćete da vozite od Los Anđelesa do Njujorka koristeći samo mrežu superpunjača koji pune pet puta brže nego bilo šta drugo. Ključna stvar je da uspostavimo srazmeru vožnje i stajanja koja će biti oko šest ili sedam. Znači, ukoliko vozite tri sata, želite da stanete na 20 ili 30 minuta, jer je to uobičajeno vreme na koje ljudi staju. Ako krenete na put u 9 ujutru, oko podneva ćete poželeti da stanete da pojedete nešto, odete do toaleta, po kafu i nastavite vožnju.
CA: So your proposition to consumers is, for the full charge, it could take an hour. So it's common -- don't expect to be out of here in 10 minutes. Wait for an hour, but the good news is, you're helping save the planet, and by the way, the electricity is free. You don't pay anything.
KA: Predlog korisnicima je da potpuno punjenje traje sat vremena. To je uobičajeno - nemojte očekivati da zavšite s tim za 10 minuta. Sačekajte sat, ali dobra vest je, da pomažete očuvanju planete, a pri tom je struja besplatna. Vi ne plaćate ništa.
EM: Actually, what we're expecting is for people to stop for about 20 to 30 minutes, not for an hour. It's actually better to drive for about maybe 160, 170 miles and then stop for half an hour and then keep going. That's the natural cadence of a trip. CA: All right. So this is only one string to your energy bow. You've been working on this solar company SolarCity. What's unusual about that?
IM: Ono što u stvari očekujemo je da ljudi staju na oko 20 do 30 minuta, ne na sat vremena. U stvari je i bolje voziti oko 250, 275 kilometara i onda stati na pola sata i nastaviti. To je prirodan tok putovanja. KA: U redu. To je samo jedno od vaših energetskih rešenja. Radite na solarnoj kompaniji "SolarSiti" (SolarCity). Šta je neobično u vezi s tim?
EM: Well, as I mentioned earlier, we have to have sustainable electricity production as well as consumption, so I'm quite confident that the primary means of power generation will be solar. I mean, it's really indirect fusion, is what it is. We've got this giant fusion generator in the sky called the sun, and we just need to tap a little bit of that energy for purposes of human civilization. What most people know but don't realize they know is that the world is almost entirely solar-powered already. If the sun wasn't there, we'd be a frozen ice ball at three degrees Kelvin, and the sun powers the entire system of precipitation. The whole ecosystem is solar-powered.
IM: Kao što sam ranije spomenuo, moramo da imamo održivu proizvodnju struje, kao i potrošnju, pa sam poprilično siguran da će primaran izvor proizvodnje struje postati solaran. To je u stvari indirekna fuzija. Imamo ogroman fuzijski generator na nebu, koji zovemo sunce i samo treba da iskoristimo mali deo te energije u svrhe ljudske civilizacije. Ono što većina ljudi zna, ali ne uviđa da zna jeste da se svet već skoro u potpunosti napaja solarnom energijom. Da nema sunca, bili bismo smrznuta kocka leda na minus 270 stepeni, a sunce pokreće i celokupan sistem padavina. Ceo ekosistem pokreće solarna energija.
CA: But in a gallon of gasoline, you have, effectively, thousands of years of sun power compressed into a small space, so it's hard to make the numbers work right now on solar, and to remotely compete with, for example, natural gas, fracked natural gas. How are you going to build a business here?
KA: Ali u nekoliko litara goriva mi imamo hiljade godina sunčeve energije sabijene u mali prostor i zato je trenutno nemoguće kalkulisati sa solarnom energijom, niti izbliza biti konkurentan sa, na primer, prirodnim gasom, lomljenim prirodnim gasom. Kako ćete poslovati s ovim?
EM: Well actually, I'm confident that solar will beat everything, hands down, including natural gas.
IM: U stvari sam siguran da će solarna energija prevazići sve, bez premca, uključujući i prirodan gas.
(Applause)CA: How?
(Aplauz) KA: Kako?
EM: It must, actually. If it doesn't, we're in deep trouble.
IM: Moraće. Inače smo u velikoj nevolji.
CA: But you're not selling solar panels to consumers. What are you doing? EM: No, we actually are. You can buy a solar system or you can lease a solar system. Most people choose to lease. And the thing about solar power is that it doesn't have any feed stock or operational costs, so once it's installed, it's just there. It works for decades. It'll work for probably a century. So therefore, the key thing to do is to get the cost of that initial installation low, and then get the cost of the financing low, because that interest -- those are the two factors that drive the cost of solar. And we've made huge progress in that direction, and that's why I'm confident we'll actually beat natural gas.
KA: Ali vi nećete prodavati solarne ploče korisnicima. Šta ćete raditi? IM: U stvari hoćemo. Možete da kupite solarni sistem ili da ga iznajmite. Većina ljudi se opredeljuje za iznajmljivanje. Stvar sa solarnom energijom je to što ne postoje troškovi skladištenja i nema operativnih troškova, dakle jednom kada su ploče postavljene, one su naprosto tamo. Rade decenijama. Najverovatnije će raditi ceo vek. Zato je ključna stvar sniziti cenu te početne instalacije i onda cenu finansiranja putem tog učešća - to su dva faktora koja utiču na cenu solarnosti. Napravili smo ogroman pomak u tom pravcu i zato sam siguran da ćemo prevazići prirodni gas.
CA: So your current proposition to consumers is, don't pay so much up front.
KA: Dakle trenutni cilj za korisnike vam je da ne plaćaju tako mnogo unapred.
EM: Zero.CA: Pay zero up front. We will install panels on your roof. You will then pay, how long is a typical lease?
IM: Ništa. KA: Nemojte ništa da platite unapred. Postavićemo vam ploče na krov. Onda ćete platiti, koja je uobičajena dužina zakupa?
EM: Typical leases are 20 years, but the value proposition is, as you're sort of alluding to, quite straightforward. It's no money down, and your utility bill decreases. Pretty good deal.
IM: Zakup je obično na 20 godina, ali vrednost predloga je, kao što ste na neki način aludirali, poprilično jasna. Nema učešća, a vaše komunalije se smanjuju. Poprilično dobra ponuda.
CA: So that seems like a win for the consumer. No risk, you'll pay less than you're paying now. For you, the dream here then is that -- I mean, who owns the electricity from those panels for the longer term? I mean, how do you, the company, benefit?
KA: Deluje kao dobitak za korisnike. Nema rizika, plaćate manje nego što sada plaćate. Za vas, san je onda da - ko je vlasnik struje iz tih ploča dugoročno gledano? Kako vi, kompanija, imate koristi od toga?
EM: Well, essentially, SolarCity raises a chunk of capital from say, a company or a bank. Google is one of our big partners here. And they have an expected return on that capital. With that capital, SolarCity purchases and installs the panel on the roof and then charges the homeowner or business owner a monthly lease payment, which is less than the utility bill.
IM: Suštinski, SolarSiti ubira dobar deo kapitala od kompanija ili banki. Gugl je jedan od naših glavnih partnera ovde. I oni očekuju povratak tog kapitala. S tim kapitalom, SolarSiti kupuje i ugrađuje ploče na krov i onda naplaćuje vlasnicima kuća ili poslovnim ljudima mesečni najam, koji košta manje nego račun za komunalije.
CA: But you yourself get a long-term commercial benefit from that power. You're kind of building a new type of distributed utility.
KA: Ali vi imate dugoročnu trgovinsku korist od te energije. Na neki način stvarate novu vrstu podeljenih komunalija.
EM: Exactly. What it amounts to is a giant distributed utility. I think it's a good thing, because utilities have been this monopoly, and people haven't had any choice. So effectively it's the first time there's been competition for this monopoly, because the utilities have been the only ones that owned those power distribution lines, but now it's on your roof. So I think it's actually very empowering for homeowners and businesses.
IM: Upravo tako. Ono što je rezultat jeste podeljena korist velikih srazmera. Mislim da je to dobra stvar, pošto su komunalije dugo bile pod monopolom i ljudi nisu imali izbora. I zato je ovo prvi put da postoji takmičenje za taj monopol, jer su komunalni zavodi do sada bili jedini koji su bili vlasnici mreža za distibuciju energije, a one su sada na vašem krovu. Mislim da to daje moć u ruke vlasnika kuća i preduzeća.
CA: And you really picture a future where a majority of power in America, within a decade or two, or within your lifetime, it goes solar?
KA: Da li zaista zamišljate budućnost u kojoj većina energije u Americi, za deceniju ili dve ili za vreme našeg života, postaje solarna?
EM: I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power, and most likely a majority, and I predict it will be a plurality in less than 20 years. I made that bet with someone —CA: Definition of plurality is?
IM: Poprilično sam samouveren da će solarna energija biti većinska, najverovatnije najveća i predviđam da će se taj rast desiti za manje od 20 godina. Kladio sam se na to. - KA: Većinska znači?
EM: More from solar than any other source.
IM: Više iz solarnih nego bilo kojih drugih izvora.
CA: Ah. Who did you make the bet with?
KA: S kim ste se kladili?
EM: With a friend who will remain nameless.
IM: S prijateljem koji će ostati anoniman.
CA: Just between us. (Laughter)
KA: Samo među nama. (Smeh)
EM: I made that bet, I think, two or three years ago, so in roughly 18 years, I think we'll see more power from solar than any other source.
IM: Opkladio sam se, mislim, pre dve ili tri godine, tako da za otprilike 18 godina mislim da će biti više solarne energije nego energije iz bilo kog drugog izvora.
CA: All right, so let's go back to another bet that you made with yourself, I guess, a kind of crazy bet. You'd made some money from the sale of PayPal. You decided to build a space company. Why on Earth would someone do that? (Laughter)
KA: U redu, hajde da se vratimo na jednu drugu opkladu koju ste načinili sami sa sobom, pretpostavljam, jednu suludu opkladu. Zaradili ste nešto novca prodajom "Pejpal"-a (PayPal) i odlučili ste da napravite svemirsku kompaniju. Zašto bi, zaboga, neko to uradio? (Smeh)
EM: I got that question a lot, that's true. People would say, "Did you hear the joke about the guy who made a small fortune in the space industry?" Obviously, "He started with a large one," is the punchline. And so I tell people, well, I was trying to figure out the fastest way to turn a large fortune into a small one. And they'd look at me, like, "Is he serious?"
IM: Često su me to pitali, u pravu ste. Ljudi bi rekli: "Da li ste čuli onu šalu o čoveku koji je zaradio malo bogatsvo u svemirskoj industriji?" "Očigledno je počeo sa velikim bogatsvom" bila bi doskočica. I zato govorim ljudima: "Pokušavao sam da otkrijem koji je najbrži način da veliko bogatstvo pretvorim u malo." I oni bi gledali u mene, kao: "Da li je on ozbiljan?"
CA: And strangely, you were. So what happened?
KA: I začudo, bili ste. Šta se desilo?
EM: It was a close call. Things almost didn't work out. We came very close to failure, but we managed to get through that point in 2008. The goal of SpaceX is to try to advance rocket technology, and in particular to try to crack a problem that I think is vital for humanity to become a space-faring civilization, which is to have a rapidly and fully reusable rocket.
IM: Stvar je bila na granici i zamalo nije uspela. Došli smo jako blizu toga da ne uspemo, ali smo uspeli da prevaziđemo to 2008. Cilj Spejs Eksa (Space X) je da unapredimo raketnu tehnologiju ili tačnije da rešimo jedan problem za koji smatram da je ključan kako bi čovečanstvo postalo dalekosežna civilizacija u svemiru, a to je da imamo raketu koja je brzo i u potpunosti ponovno upotrebljiva.
CA: Would humanity become a space-faring civilization? So that was a dream of yours, in a way, from a young age? You've dreamed of Mars and beyond?
KA: Da li će ljudi postati civilizacija koja putuje svemirom? Dakle to je bio na neki način Vaš san još od malih nogu? Sanjali ste o Marsu i o daljem prostranstvu?
EM: I did build rockets when I was a kid, but I didn't think I'd be involved in this. It was really more from the standpoint of what are the things that need to happen in order for the future to be an exciting and inspiring one? And I really think there's a fundamental difference, if you sort of look into the future, between a humanity that is a space-faring civilization, that's out there exploring the stars, on multiple planets, and I think that's really exciting, compared with one where we are forever confined to Earth until some eventual extinction event.
IM: Zaista jesam gradio rakete kada sam bio dete, ali nisam mislio da ću biti deo ovako nečega. To se više desilo sa tačke gledišta toga šta je potrebno da se uradi kako bi budućnost bila uzbudljiva i inspirišuća? I zaista mislim da postoji ključna razlika, ako pogledamo u budućnost, između čovečanstva koje putuje svemirom, koje je tamo negde, istražuje zvezde, na nekoliko planeta i mislim da je to zaista uzbudljivo, u poređenju sa budućnošću u kojoj smo zauvek vezani za Zemlju do nekog događaja u kome izumiremo.
CA: So you've somehow slashed the cost of building a rocket by 75 percent, depending on how you calculate it. How on Earth have you done that? NASA has been doing this for years. How have you done this?
KA: Nekako ste uspeli da sasečete troškove gradnje rakete za 75 procenata, u zavisnosti od toga kako računamo. Kako ste, zaboga, uspeli to da uradite? NASA ovo radi već godinama. Kako ste vi to uradili?
EM: Well, we've made significant advances in the technology of the airframe, the engines, the electronics and the launch operation. There's a long list of innovations that we've come up with there that are a little difficult to communicate in this talk, but --
IM: Napravili smo značajne pomake u tehnologiji konstrukcije letelice, motora, elektronike i operacije lansiranja. Postoji duga lista inovacija koje smo osmislili, koje je u stvari malo teško preneti u ovom razgovoru, ali -
CA: Not least because you could still get copied, right? You haven't patented this stuff. It's really interesting to me.
KA: U najmanju ruku, zato što bi neko mogao da vam ukrade ideju, zar ne? Niste patentirali ove stvari. To mi je stvarno interesantno.
EM: No, we don't patent.CA: You didn't patent because you think it's more dangerous to patent than not to patent.
IM: Ne, nemamo patent. KA: Niste patentirali zato što mislite da je opasnije patentirati nego ne patentirati.
EM: Since our primary competitors are national governments, the enforceability of patents is questionable.(Laughter) (Applause)
IM: Pošto su naši glavni konkurenti vlade drugih država, primenjivost patenata se može dovesti u pitanje. (Smeh) (Aplauz)
CA: That's really, really interesting. But the big innovation is still ahead, and you're working on it now. Tell us about this.
KA: To je stvarno, stvarno interesantno. Ali najveća inovacija je tek pred nama i radite na njoj upravo. Pričajte nam o tome.
EM: Right, so the big innovation—
IM: Da, dakle velika inovacija -
CA: In fact, let's roll that video and you can talk us through it, what's happening here.
KA: U stvari, hajde da pustimo video i možete da nam pričate uz njega, šta se dešava.
EM: Absolutely. So the thing about rockets is that they're all expendable. All rockets that fly today are fully expendable. The space shuttle was an attempt at a reusable rocket, but even the main tank of the space shuttle was thrown away every time, and the parts that were reusable took a 10,000-person group nine months to refurbish for flight. So the space shuttle ended up costing a billion dollars per flight. Obviously that doesn't work very well for —
IM: Naravno. Dakle, stvar u vezi s raketama je to što su sve one potrošne. Sve rakete koje danas lete su u potpunosti potrošne. Spejs šatl je bio pokušaj višestruko upotrebljive rakete, ali se čak i glavni rezervoar spejs šatla odbacivao svaki put, a za delove koji su bili ponovno upotrebljivi 10.000 ljudi je radilo devet meseci kako bi se obnovili za rad. I tako spejs šatl košta milijarde dolara za svaki let. Očigledno to ne funcioniše baš veoma dobro za -
CA: What just happened there? We just saw something land?
KA: Šta se ovde desilo? Videli smo da nešto sleće?
EM: That's right. So it's important that the rocket stages be able to come back, to be able to return to the launch site and be ready to launch again within a matter of hours.
IM: Upravo tako. Bitno je da raketa može da se vrati, da dođe nazad na mesto lansiranja i bude spremna za lansiranje za nekoliko sati.
CA: Wow. Reusable rockets.EM: Yes. (Applause) And so what a lot of people don't realize is, the cost of the fuel, of the propellant, is very small. It's much like on a jet. So the cost of the propellant is about .3 percent of the cost of the rocket. So it's possible to achieve, let's say, roughly 100-fold improvement in the cost of spaceflight if you can effectively reuse the rocket. That's why it's so important. Every mode of transport that we use, whether it's planes, trains, automobiles, bikes, horses, is reusable, but not rockets. So we must solve this problem in order to become a space-faring civilization.
KA: Oho. Ponovno upotrebljive rakete. IM: Da. (Aplauz) Ono što mnogo ljudi ne uviđa jeste da je cena goriva, pogona, veoma niska. Kao na mlaznjaku. Cena pogonskog goriva je oko 0.3 procenta cene rakete. I zato je moguće postići, recimo, smanjenje cene leta u svemir oko 100 puta, ako efikasno ponovno upotrebimo raketu. Zato je to toliko važno. Svaki vid transporta koji koristimo, bili to avioni, vozovi, automobili, bicikli, konji mogu se ponovno upotrebiti, ali ne i rakete. I zato moramo da rešimo ovaj problem kako bismo postali civilizacija koja putuje svemirom.
CA: You asked me the question earlier of how popular traveling on cruises would be if you had to burn your ships afterward.EM: Certain cruises are apparently highly problematic.
KA: Pitali ste me malopre koliko bi krstarenje bilo popularno ukoliko bismo morali da palimo brodove posle toga. IM: Neka krstarenja su veoma problematična.
CA: Definitely more expensive. So that's potentially absolutely disruptive technology, and, I guess, paves the way for your dream to actually take, at some point, to take humanity to Mars at scale. You'd like to see a colony on Mars.
KA: Definitivno skuplje. I zato je to potencijalno veoma rušilačka tehnologija i pretpostavljam da ovo stvara put ka ostvarenju Vašeg sna da jednom povedemo srazmeran broj ljudi na Mars. Voleli biste da vidite koloniju na Marsu.
EM: Yeah, exactly. SpaceX, or some combination of companies and governments, needs to make progress in the direction of making life multi-planetary, of establishing a base on another planet, on Mars -- being the only realistic option -- and then building that base up until we're a true multi-planet species.
IM: Da, tačno. Spejs Eks ili kombinacija kompanija i vlada, treba da ostvari progres u pravcu toga da osposobimo život na nekoliko planeta ili da uspostavimo bazu na nekoj drugoj planeti, - Mars je ovde jedina realistična opcija - i da onda razvijamo tu bazu dok ne postanemo zaista vrsta koja živi na više planeta.
CA: So progress on this "let's make it reusable," how is that going? That was just a simulation video we saw. How's it going?
KA: Kako progres na ovom "napravimo ga ponovno upotrebljivim" napreduje? Ovaj video je bio samo simulacija. Kako napredujete?
EM: We're actually, we've been making some good progress recently with something we call the Grasshopper Test Project, where we're testing the vertical landing portion of the flight, the sort of terminal portion which is quite tricky. And we've had some good tests.
IM: U stvari, u poslednje vreme napredujemo poprilično dobro, napravili smo nešto što se zove "Test projekat Skakavac" u kome testiramo vertikalno sletanje, konačan deo leta koji je poprilično komplikovan. I imali smo neke uspešne testove.
CA: Can we see that?EM: Yeah. So that's just to give a sense of scale. We dressed a cowboy as Johnny Cash and bolted the mannequin to the rocket. (Laughter)
KA: Možemo li da vidimo to? IM: Da. Kako bismo vam približili veličinu. Obukli smo kauboja kao Džoni Keša i privezali lutku uz raketu. (Smeh)
CA: All right, let's see that video then, because this is actually amazing when you think about it. You've never seen this before. A rocket blasting off and then --
KA: U redu, hajde da vidimo video, jer je ovo u stvari neverovatno kada razmislite o tome. Ovo nikada niste videli. Raketa koja uzleće i onda -
EM: Yeah, so that rocket is about the size of a 12-story building. (Rocket launch) So now it's hovering at about 40 meters, and it's constantly adjusting the angle, the pitch and yaw of the main engine, and maintaining roll with cold gas thrusters.
IM: Da, dakle ovo je raketa veličine zgrade od 12 spratova. (Lansiranje rakete) Ona sada lebdi na oko 40 metara i neprestano podešava ugao, nagib i pravac glavnog motora i održava treperenje sa pogonom na ugljani gas.
CA: How cool is that? (Applause) Elon, how have you done this? These projects are so -- Paypal, SolarCity, Tesla, SpaceX, they're so spectacularly different, they're such ambitious projects at scale. How on Earth has one person been able to innovate in this way? What is it about you?
KA: Koliko je to kul? (Aplauz) Ilone, kako ste ovo uradili? Ovi projekti - Pejpal, SolarSiti, Tesla, Spejs Eks, toliko su neverovatno različiti, oni su toliko ambiciozni projekti globalno gledano. Kako je jedna osoba sposobna za ovakvu inovaciju? Šta je to u vezi s Vama?
EM: I don't know, actually. I don't have a good answer for you. I work a lot. I mean, a lot.
IM: Ne znam. Nemam dobar odgovor na ovo. Radim mnogo. Mislim, mnogo.
CA: Well, I have a theory.EM: Okay. All right.
KA: Imam jednu teoriju. IM: U redu. Dobro.
CA: My theory is that you have an ability to think at a system level of design that pulls together design, technology and business, so if TED was TBD, design, technology and business, into one package, synthesize it in a way that very few people can and -- and this is the critical thing -- feel so damn confident in that clicked-together package that you take crazy risks. You bet your fortune on it, and you seem to have done that multiple times. I mean, almost no one can do that. Is that -- could we have some of that secret sauce? Can we put it into our education system? Can someone learn from you? It is truly amazing what you've done.
KA: Moja teorija je da ste sposobni da razmišljate na nivou sistemskog dizajna koji spaja dizajn, tehnologiju i poslovanje, tako da, ako bi TED bio TBD, dizajn, tehnologija i poslovanje spojeno u jedno, povezujete ih na način kako malo ljudi ume - i ovo je ključna stvar - toliko samouvereno da s tim povezanim paketom peuzimate sulude rizike. Rizukujete svoje bogatstvo na tome, a izgleda da ste to uradili nekoliko puta. Mislim, skoro niko nije sposoban za to. Možemo li dobiti malo tog tajnog začina? Možemo li načiniti to delom obrazovnog sistema? Da li neko može da nauči to od Vas? Ono što ste uradili je zaista neverovatno.
EM: Well, thanks. Thank you. Well, I do think there's a good framework for thinking. It is physics. You know, the sort of first principles reasoning. Generally I think there are -- what I mean by that is, boil things down to their fundamental truths and reason up from there, as opposed to reasoning by analogy. Through most of our life, we get through life by reasoning by analogy, which essentially means copying what other people do with slight variations. And you have to do that. Otherwise, mentally, you wouldn't be able to get through the day. But when you want to do something new, you have to apply the physics approach. Physics is really figuring out how to discover new things that are counterintuitive, like quantum mechanics. It's really counterintuitive. So I think that's an important thing to do, and then also to really pay attention to negative feedback, and solicit it, particularly from friends. This may sound like simple advice, but hardly anyone does that, and it's incredibly helpful.
IM: Pa, hvala. Hvala Vam. Mislim da ne postoji dobra osnova za razmišljanje. To je fizika. Znate, neki osnovni principi zaključivanja. Uopšteno mislim da postoje - ono što mislim pri tome je da se stvari svode na njihove osnovne istine i treba krenuti od toga, nasuprot zaključivanju putem analogije. Kroz veći deo života, mi prolazimo koristeći analogiju, što suštinski znači kopiranje onoga što drugi ljudi rade uz manje varijacije. I morate to da radite. Inače, mentalno, ne biste mogli da preživite dan. Ali kada želite da uradite nešto novo, morate da primenite pristup fizike. Fizika zaista pronalazi načine za otkrivanje novih stvari, koje su suprotne instinktima, kao što je kvantna mehanika. Zaista je nelogična. Mislim da je to bitna stvar i onda da obratimo pažnju i na negativne povratne informacije i da ih zatražimo, naročito od prijatelja. Možda ovo zvuči kao prost savet, ali skoro niko to ne radi, a to je od izuzetne pomoći.
CA: Boys and girls watching, study physics. Learn from this man. Elon Musk, I wish we had all day, but thank you so much for coming to TED.
KA: Momci i devojke koji ovo gledate, učite fiziku. Učite od ovog čoveka. Ilone Mask, voleo bih da imamo ceo dan, ali hvala Vam mnogo što ste došli na TED.
EM: Thank you. CA: That was awesome. That was really, really cool. Look at that. (Applause)
IM: Hvala. KA: Bilo je neverovatno. Zaista, zaista kul. Pogledaj. (Aplauz)
Just take a bow. That was fantastic. Thank you so much.
Samo se poklonite. Bilo je fantastično. Hvala Vam mnogo.