Chris Anderson: Elon, what kind of crazy dream would persuade you to think of trying to take on the auto industry and build an all-electric car?
Chris Anderson: Elon, kakav te to samo ludi san natjerao na pomisao da se okušaš u automobilskoj industriji i sastaviš potpuno električni automobil?
Elon Musk: Well, it goes back to when I was in university. I thought about, what are the problems that are most likely to affect the future of the world or the future of humanity? I think it's extremely important that we have sustainable transport and sustainable energy production. That sort of overall sustainable energy problem is the biggest problem that we have to solve this century, independent of environmental concerns. In fact, even if producing CO2 was good for the environment, given that we're going to run out of hydrocarbons, we need to find some sustainable means of operating.
Elon Musk: Pa, protječe još iz mojih studentskih dana. Razmišljao sam koji će problemi najvjerojatnije utjecati na budućnost svijeta ili budućnost čovječanstva? Smatram da je od iznimne važnosti da imamo održivi transport i proizvodnju održive energije. Takav cjelokupni problem održive energije je navjeći problem koji ćemo morati riješiti u ovom stoljeću, neovisno o zabrinutosti za okoliš. Istina je ta da čak i da je proizvodnja CO2 dobra za okoliš, znajući da će nam ponestati ugljikovodika, moramo pronaći odgovarajuće održive mjere djelovanja.
CA: Most of American electricity comes from burning fossil fuels. How can an electric car that plugs into that electricity help?
CA: Većina Američke električne energije proizlazi iz spaljivanja fosilnih goriva. Kako će električni automobil, uključen u električnu struju, pomoći?
EM: Right. There's two elements to that answer. One is that, even if you take the same source fuel and produce power at the power plant and use it to charge electric cars, you're still better off. So if you take, say, natural gas, which is the most prevalent hydrocarbon source fuel, if you burn that in a modern General Electric natural gas turbine, you'll get about 60 percent efficiency. If you put that same fuel in an internal combustion engine car, you get about 20 percent efficiency. And the reason is, in the stationary power plant, you can afford to have something that weighs a lot more, is voluminous, and you can take the waste heat and run a steam turbine and generate a secondary power source. So in effect, even after you've taken transmission loss into account and everything, even using the same source fuel, you're at least twice as better off charging an electric car, then burning it at the power plant.
EM: U redu. Odgovor se sastoji od dvije komponente. Prva je da čak i da se uzme isti izvor goriva i proizvede snaga na elektrani i iskoristi za napajanje električnih automobila, za nas je još uvijek bolje. Ako uzmete, naprimjer, prirodni plin, koji je najrasprostanjeniji izvor goriva ugljikovodika i ako ga spalite u modernoj prirodnoj plinskoj turbini tvrtke General Electric dobit ćete oko 60 postotnu učinkovitost. Ako to isto gorivo prođe kroz unutarnje izgaranje u motoru automobila dobit ćete oko 20 postotnu učinkovitost. A razlog je taj da si u elektranama na stacionarni pogon možete priuštiti nešto što teži puno više, većeg je obujma i možete uzeti otpadnu toplinu pokrenuti parnu turbinu i generirati sekundarne izvore snage. Dakle, čak i nakon što uzmete u obzir gubitak pri prijenosu i pri potrošnji istog izvora goriva, najmanje ste dva puta sigurniji pri napajanju električnog automobila, nego njenog izgaranja u elektrani.
CA: That scale delivers efficiency.
CA: Takva mjera predstavlja učinkovitost.
EM: Yes, it does. And then the other point is, we have to have sustainable means of power generation anyway, electricity generation. So given that we have to solve sustainable electricity generation, then it makes sense for us to have electric cars as the mode of transport.
EM: Da, tako je. I druga stvar je da moramo računati na održive mjere generiranja snage, to jest, generiranja električne energije. Znači ako moramo riješiti održivu proizvodnju električke energije, onda ima smisla imati električni automobil kao prijevozno sredstvo.
CA: So we've got some video here of the Tesla being assembled, which, if we could play that first video -- So what is innovative about this process in this vehicle?
CA: Dakle imamo ovdje nekoliko montiranih snimaka Tesle koji, ako bi mogli vidjeti prvi video .. Dakle što je inovativno u razvoju ovog vozila?
EM: Sure. So, in order to accelerate the advent of electric transport, and I should say that I think, actually, all modes of transport will become fully electric with the ironic exception of rockets. There's just no way around Newton's third law. The question is how do you accelerate the advent of electric transport? And in order to do that for cars, you have to come up with a really energy efficient car, so that means making it incredibly light, and so what you're seeing here is the only all-aluminum body and chassis car made in North America. In fact, we applied a lot of rocket design techniques to make the car light despite having a very large battery pack. And then it also has the lowest drag coefficient of any car of its size. So as a result, the energy usage is very low, and it has the most advanced battery pack, and that's what gives it the range that's competitive, so you can actually have on the order of a 250-mile range.
EM: Svakako. Dakle kako bi ubrzali stvarnost električnih prijevoznih sredstava, i trebao bih reći da mislim, zapravo, da će sva prijevozna sredstva u potpunosti postati električna s ironičnom iznimkom raketa. Jednostavno se ne može zaobići Newtonom treći zakon. PItanje je kako ubrzati pojavu elektičnog prijevoznog sredstva? I kako bi to postigli za automobile, moramo smisliti energetski zbilja djelotvoran automobil a to znači postizanje nevjerojatne lakoće i ono što vidite ovdje je jedina sve-aluminijskom karoserija i šasija proizvedena u Sjevernoj Americi. Primijenili smo zapravo puno metoda korištenih kod dizajniranja raketa kako bi dobili svjetlost automobila unatoč vrlo velikoj bateriji. I također mora imati najniži koeficijent otpora strujanju bilo kojeg automobila iste veličine. Dakle kao rezultat, postotak primijenjene energije je vrlo nizak, i ima najnapredniju bateriju, i to je ono što mu daje konkurentan raspon tako da zapravo možete imati narudžbu u rasponu od oko 400 kilometara.
CA: I mean, those battery packs are incredibly heavy, but you think the math can still work out intelligently -- by combining light body, heavy battery, you can still gain spectacular efficiency.
CA: Jer te su baterije nevjerojatno teške, ali ti smatraš da bi se spoj mogao intelektualno ostvariti sa kombinacijom lake karoserije, teške baterije, i sa dodatno dobivenom spektakularnom djelotvornošću.
EM: Exactly. The rest of the car has to be very light to offset the mass of the pack, and then you have to have a low drag coefficient so that you have good highway range. And in fact, customers of the Model S are sort of competing with each other to try to get the highest possible range. I think somebody recently got 420 miles out of a single charge.
EM: Točno. Ostatak automobila mora biti vrlo lagan kako bi se stvorila ravnoteža i nakon toga moramo imati nizak otpor strujanju kako bi se uravnotežio cijeloukupni raspon. I stvarno, korisnici Model S-a se na neki način međusobno natječu kako bi se čim bolje rangirali. Mislim da je nedavno netko dobio oko 675 kilometara iz jednog napajanja.
CA: Bruno Bowden, who's here, did that, broke the world record.EM: Congratulations.
CA: Bruno Bowden, koji je ovdje prisutan, je učinio to, srušio svjetski rekord. Moje čestitke.
CA: That was the good news. The bad news was that to do it, he had to drive at 18 miles an hour constant speed and got pulled over by the cops. (Laughter)
CA: Ovo je bila dobra vijest. Loša je ta da kako bi ti učinio, morao je voziti stalnom brzinom od oko 30 km/h i zaustavila ga je policija. (Smijeh)
EM: I mean, you can certainly drive -- if you drive it 65 miles an hour, under normal conditions, 250 miles is a reasonable number.
EM: Mislim, stvarno možete voziti ... ako vozite oko 100 km/h, u normalnim okolnostima, 400 kilometara je razuman broj.
CA: Let's show that second video showing the Tesla in action on ice. Not at all a dig at The New York Times, this, by the way. What is the most surprising thing about the experience of driving the car?
CA: Prikažimo i drugu snimku gdje je Tesla u akciji na ledu. I ovo nije udarac prema New York Timesu. Što je najiznenađujuće od svega u sveukupnom iskustvu vožnje automobila?
EM: In creating an electric car, the responsiveness of the car is really incredible. So we wanted really to have people feel as though they've almost got to mind meld with the car, so you just feel like you and the car are kind of one, and as you corner and accelerate, it just happens, like the car has ESP. You can do that with an electric car because of its responsiveness. You can't do that with a gasoline car. I think that's really a profound difference, and people only experience that when they have a test drive.
EM: U stvaranju električnog automobila, odgovor od samog vozila je stvarno nevjerojatan. Stvarno smo hjeli da se ljudi osjećaju kao da se mogu stopiti sa automobilom, tako da se osjećate kao da ste vi i vozilo kao jedno, i kada skrećete i ubrzavate, jednostavno se desi, kao da automobil ima ESP. To se može postići u električnom automobilu zbog njegove sukladnosti. To se ne može postići s benzinskim vozilom. Smatram da je ta razlika stvarno duboka, i ljudi je dožive tek kada prođu probnu vožnju.
CA: I mean, this is a beautiful but expensive car. Is there a road map where this becomes a mass-market vehicle?
CA: Jer, ovaj je automobil predivan ali skup. Postoji li potokaz na kojem postaje vozilo dostupno masama?
EM: Yeah. The goal of Tesla has always been to have a sort of three-step process, where version one was an expensive car at low volume, version two is medium priced and medium volume, and then version three would be low price, high volume. So we're at step two at this point. So we had a $100,000 sports car, which was the Roadster. Then we've got the Model S, which starts at around 50,000 dollars. And our third generation car, which should hopefully be out in about three or four years will be a $30,000 car. But whenever you've got really new technology, it generally takes about three major versions in order to make it a compelling mass-market product. And so I think we're making progress in that direction, and I feel confident that we'll get there.
EM: Da. Cilj Tesle je oduvijek bio postići ovakav postupak u tri koraka, gdje je prva verzija skupi automobil na nižoj razini, druga verzija je automobil po srednjoj cijeni i na srednjoj razini, i treća verzija je niska cijena, visoka razina. Sada se nalazimo usred druge verzije. Dakle imali smo sportski automobil za 100,000 dolara, Roadster. Nakon toga Model S, čija početna cijena je oko 50 000 dolara. I naša treća generacija automobila, koja će nadam se izaći za oko tri ili četiri godine koštati oko 30 000 dolara. Ali kada god imate stvarno novu tehnologiju, najčešće su potrebne oko tri značajne verzije kako bi proizvod postao privlačan masama. I smatramo da dobro napredujemo u tom smjeru, i siguran sam da ćemo stići do cilja.
CA: I mean, right now, if you've got a short commute, you can drive, you can get back, you can charge it at home. There isn't a huge nationwide network of charging stations now that are fast. Do you see that coming, really, truly, or just on a few key routes?
CA: Jer, upravo sada, računate sa manje odrađenim poslom, možete voziti, vratiti se, napuniti ga kod kuće. Ne postoje velike državne mreže brzih postaja za napajanje. Vidite li ih u budućnosti, stvarno, istinski, ili samo nekoliko ključnih puteljaka?
EM: There actually are far more charging stations than people realize, and at Tesla we developed something called a Supercharging technology, and we're offering that if you buy a Model S for free, forever. And so this is something that maybe a lot of people don't realize. We actually have California and Nevada covered, and we've got the Eastern seaboard from Boston to D.C. covered. By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive from L.A. to New York just using the Supercharger network, which charges at five times the rate of anything else. And the key thing is to have a ratio of drive to stop, to stop time, of about six or seven. So if you drive for three hours, you want to stop for 20 or 30 minutes, because that's normally what people will stop for. So if you start a trip at 9 a.m., by noon you want to stop to have a bite to eat, hit the restroom, coffee, and keep going.
EM: Zapravo postoji puno više postaja za napajanje nego što ljudi misle, i u Tesli smo proizveli nešto što nazivamo visokonaponska tehnologija, koju nudimo ako kupite Model S besplatno, zauvijek. I to je nešto što možda puno ljudi ne zna. Pokrili smo Kaliforniju i Nevadu, i istočnu obalu od Bostona prema Washingtonu. Do kraja godine, moći ćete voziti od Los Angelesa do New Yorka upotrebljavljajući samo visokonaponsku mrežu, koje se puni pet puta brže od bilo čega drugog. I ključna stvar je zaustaviti omjer pogona zaustaviti na vrijeme, oko šest ili sedam sati. Znači ako vozite oko tri sata želite se zaustaviti na dvadeset ili trideset minuta, to je uobičajeno vrijeme na koje ljudi staju. Znači ako krenete na put u devet sati ujutro, do podneva ćete stati da nešto pojedete, obavite nuždu, popijete kavu i krenete dalje.
CA: So your proposition to consumers is, for the full charge, it could take an hour. So it's common -- don't expect to be out of here in 10 minutes. Wait for an hour, but the good news is, you're helping save the planet, and by the way, the electricity is free. You don't pay anything.
CA: Znači vaš prijedlog klijentima je da je za potpuno punjenje potrebno oko sat vremena. Dakle često je -- ne očekujte izaći na cestu u deset minuta. Pričekajte sat vremena, ali dobra vijest je da, pomažete u spašavanju planete, i usput, električna energija je besplatna. Ne plaćate ništa.
EM: Actually, what we're expecting is for people to stop for about 20 to 30 minutes, not for an hour. It's actually better to drive for about maybe 160, 170 miles and then stop for half an hour and then keep going. That's the natural cadence of a trip. CA: All right. So this is only one string to your energy bow. You've been working on this solar company SolarCity. What's unusual about that?
EM: Zapravo, ono što očekujemo od ljudi je da stanu na dvadesetak do tridesetak minuta, ne na sat vremena. Zapravo je bolje voziti oko dvjestopetedeset, dvjestošezdeset kilometara i stati na pola sata nego nastaviti dalje. To je prirodan redoslijed puta. CA: U redu. Znači to je samo jedan dio u vašem energetskom planu. Radite u tvrtci za solarnu energiju, SolarCity. Što je neobično oko toga?
EM: Well, as I mentioned earlier, we have to have sustainable electricity production as well as consumption, so I'm quite confident that the primary means of power generation will be solar. I mean, it's really indirect fusion, is what it is. We've got this giant fusion generator in the sky called the sun, and we just need to tap a little bit of that energy for purposes of human civilization. What most people know but don't realize they know is that the world is almost entirely solar-powered already. If the sun wasn't there, we'd be a frozen ice ball at three degrees Kelvin, and the sun powers the entire system of precipitation. The whole ecosystem is solar-powered.
EM: Dakle, kao što sam ranije spomenuo, moramo imati na raspolaganju održivu energetsku proizvodnju kao i potrošnju, prilično sam siguran da će primarni izvori generacije snage biti solarni. Mislim, radi se o indirektnoj fuziji, to je to. Imamo ogroman fuzijski generator na nebu koji se naziva Sunce, i trebamo samo izvuči malo te energije u svrhu ljudske civilizacije. Što većina ljudi zna ali ne shvaća da zapravo zna je da svijet već sada skoro cijeli radi na bazi solarne energije. Da nema Sunca, bili bi smrznuta kuglica leda na minus dvjestosedamdeset celzijevih stupnjeva, i sunce pokreće cijeli sistem precipitacija. I cijeli ekosistem je na solarnoj bazi.
CA: But in a gallon of gasoline, you have, effectively, thousands of years of sun power compressed into a small space, so it's hard to make the numbers work right now on solar, and to remotely compete with, for example, natural gas, fracked natural gas. How are you going to build a business here?
CA: Ali u galonu benzina, imate, zapravo, tisuće godina sunčeve energije stisnute u mali prostor, tako da je teško dobiti pozitivne brojke za solarnu energiju, i da se natječe, približno sa, na primer, prirodnim plinom, Kako ćete stvoriti posao ovdje?
EM: Well actually, I'm confident that solar will beat everything, hands down, including natural gas.
EM: Zapravo, vjerujem da će solarna energija pobijediti sve, ruke dolje, uključujući i prirodni plin.
(Applause)CA: How?
(Pljesak) CA: Kako?
EM: It must, actually. If it doesn't, we're in deep trouble.
EM: Mora, zapravo. Ako se to ne dogodi, bit ćemo u velikim problemima.
CA: But you're not selling solar panels to consumers. What are you doing? EM: No, we actually are. You can buy a solar system or you can lease a solar system. Most people choose to lease. And the thing about solar power is that it doesn't have any feed stock or operational costs, so once it's installed, it's just there. It works for decades. It'll work for probably a century. So therefore, the key thing to do is to get the cost of that initial installation low, and then get the cost of the financing low, because that interest -- those are the two factors that drive the cost of solar. And we've made huge progress in that direction, and that's why I'm confident we'll actually beat natural gas.
CA: Ali klijentima ne prodajete solarne panele. Što zapravo radite? EM: Ne, zapravo ih prodajemo. Možete kupiti solarni sustav ili ga možete unajmiti. Većina ljudi ga uzme u najam. I ono bitno oko solarnog sustava je to da ne mora imati nikakve zalihe ili poslovne troškove, tako da kad ga jednom instalirate, jednostavno ostane. I radi desetljećima. Vjerojatno će raditi cijelo stoljeće. Dakle, ključna stvar je da cijena prve instalacije bude niska, i nakon toga da samo financiranje bude nisko, jer to je važno -- to su dva čimbenika koja upravljalju cijenom solarnog sustava. I postigli smo veliki napredak u tom smjeru i to je razlog zašto sam siguran da ćemo pobijediti prirodni plin.
CA: So your current proposition to consumers is, don't pay so much up front.
CA: Znači vaš trenutni prijedlog klijentima je da ne daju puno novca unaprijed.
EM: Zero.CA: Pay zero up front. We will install panels on your roof. You will then pay, how long is a typical lease?
EM: Nula. CA: Ne plaćate unaprijed. Instalirati ćemo panele na vašem krovištu. Nakon toga ćete platiti, na koliko dugo je najam obično?
EM: Typical leases are 20 years, but the value proposition is, as you're sort of alluding to, quite straightforward. It's no money down, and your utility bill decreases. Pretty good deal.
EM: Uobičajeni su na dvadeset godina, ali prijedlog glavne vrijednosti je, kao što aludiraš, poprilično izravan. Bez predujma, i smanje se vaši troškovi. Prilično dobar dogovor.
CA: So that seems like a win for the consumer. No risk, you'll pay less than you're paying now. For you, the dream here then is that -- I mean, who owns the electricity from those panels for the longer term? I mean, how do you, the company, benefit?
CA: Izgleda kao pobjeda za kupca. Bez rizika, plaćate manje nego sada. Za vas, san se sastoji od -- Jer, tko je vlasnik električne energije panela na duži rok? Kako vi, cijela tvrtka, profitirate?
EM: Well, essentially, SolarCity raises a chunk of capital from say, a company or a bank. Google is one of our big partners here. And they have an expected return on that capital. With that capital, SolarCity purchases and installs the panel on the roof and then charges the homeowner or business owner a monthly lease payment, which is less than the utility bill.
EM: Dakle, u biti, SolarCity ima dio kapitala u, recimo, nekoj tvrtci ili banci. Google je jedan od naših glavnih partnera. I računa sa povratom kapitala. Sa tim kapitalom, SolarCity kupuje i instalira panele na krovišta i nakon toga naplaćuje vlasnicima kuća ili poduzeća mjesečnu najamninu, koja je manja od ukupnih komunalnih troškova.
CA: But you yourself get a long-term commercial benefit from that power. You're kind of building a new type of distributed utility.
CA: Ali vi dobivate dugoročnu poslovnu dobrobit iz te snage. Jer stvarate novu vrstu dobro raspoređenih komunalnih troškova.
EM: Exactly. What it amounts to is a giant distributed utility. I think it's a good thing, because utilities have been this monopoly, and people haven't had any choice. So effectively it's the first time there's been competition for this monopoly, because the utilities have been the only ones that owned those power distribution lines, but now it's on your roof. So I think it's actually very empowering for homeowners and businesses.
EM: Točno. Ono na što se cilja je značajno velika raspodjela troškova. Smatram da je to dobro, jer troškovi se smatraju monopolom u kojem osobe nemaju pravo izbora. Znači, zapravo, ovo je prvi put da postoji natjecanje za ovaj monopol, jer su komunalna poduzeća bila jedina koja su imala glavnu riječ pri distribuciji, ali ono se sada nalazi na vašem krovištu. I zato smatram da to zapravo opunomoćuje vlasnike nekretnina i tvrtki.
CA: And you really picture a future where a majority of power in America, within a decade or two, or within your lifetime, it goes solar?
CA: Možeš li stvarno zamisliti budućnost gdje većina snage u Americi unutar jednog ili dva desetljeća, ili za tvog života, prelazi u solarnu?
EM: I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power, and most likely a majority, and I predict it will be a plurality in less than 20 years. I made that bet with someone —CA: Definition of plurality is?
EM: Ja se izrazito pouzdajem u to da će se solarna energija koristiti u većem broju, da će prijeći u većinu, i predviđam da će postati većinska unutar dvadeset godina. S nekim sam se kladio o tome. Koja je definicija većinstva?
EM: More from solar than any other source.
EM: Više izvora solarne energije nego bilo kojeg drugog.
CA: Ah. Who did you make the bet with?
CA: S kime si se kladio?
EM: With a friend who will remain nameless.
EM: Sa prijateljem kojeg neću imenovati.
CA: Just between us. (Laughter)
CA: Ostaje među nama.
EM: I made that bet, I think, two or three years ago, so in roughly 18 years, I think we'll see more power from solar than any other source.
EM: Kladio sam se, mislim, prije dvije ili tri godine, tako da u oko osamnaest godina, mislim da ćemo svjedočiti većinskom udjelu izvora solarne energije.
CA: All right, so let's go back to another bet that you made with yourself, I guess, a kind of crazy bet. You'd made some money from the sale of PayPal. You decided to build a space company. Why on Earth would someone do that? (Laughter)
CA: U redu, vratimo se na tvoju drugu okladu sa samim sobim, mislim, malo luda oklada. Zaradio si nešto novaca od prodaje na PayPalu. Odlučio si osnovati svemirski orijentiranu tvrtku. Zašto, pobogu, bi to netko učinio? (Smijeh)
EM: I got that question a lot, that's true. People would say, "Did you hear the joke about the guy who made a small fortune in the space industry?" Obviously, "He started with a large one," is the punchline. And so I tell people, well, I was trying to figure out the fastest way to turn a large fortune into a small one. And they'd look at me, like, "Is he serious?"
EM: Puno su me već puta to pitali, to je istina. Ljudi obično kažu, "Znaš li onaj vic o onom dečku koji je zaradio malo bogatstvo u svemirskoj industriji?" Očito, "Počeo je velikom", je udarna točka. I obično kažem ljudima da sam pokušao nači najbrži način da pretvorim veliko bogatstvo u malo. I sve me gledaju, kao, "Je li on ozbiljan?"
CA: And strangely, you were. So what happened?
CA: I začuđujuće, bio si. Što se dogodilo?
EM: It was a close call. Things almost didn't work out. We came very close to failure, but we managed to get through that point in 2008. The goal of SpaceX is to try to advance rocket technology, and in particular to try to crack a problem that I think is vital for humanity to become a space-faring civilization, which is to have a rapidly and fully reusable rocket.
EM: Bilo je napeto i zamalo se i se nije ostvarilo. Bili smo vrlo blizu neuspjehu, ali smo to uspjeli prebroditi 2008. godine. Cilj SpaceXa je pokušati unaprijediti raketnu tehnologiju, i posebno pokušati riješiti problem za koji smatram da je od životne važnosti za čovječanstvo da postane civilizacija upoznata sa putovanjem svemirom, što uključuje i raketu za brzu i višekratnu primjenu.
CA: Would humanity become a space-faring civilization? So that was a dream of yours, in a way, from a young age? You've dreamed of Mars and beyond?
CA: Hoće li putovanje svemirom postati dio naše civilizacije? Je li to bio tvoj sad, od djetinjstva? Sanjao si o Marsu i svemu što slijedi?
EM: I did build rockets when I was a kid, but I didn't think I'd be involved in this. It was really more from the standpoint of what are the things that need to happen in order for the future to be an exciting and inspiring one? And I really think there's a fundamental difference, if you sort of look into the future, between a humanity that is a space-faring civilization, that's out there exploring the stars, on multiple planets, and I think that's really exciting, compared with one where we are forever confined to Earth until some eventual extinction event.
EM: Istina je da sam slagao rakete kao dijete, ali nisam mislio da ću se uplesti u ovakvo nešto. Gledao sam više na to kao koje su stvari koje se moraju dogoditi kako bi budućnost bila uzbudljiva i inspirirajuća? I stvarno mislim da postoji bitna razlika, ako pogledate što nam donosi budućnost, između čovječanstva koje putuje svemirom, koje tamo istražuje zvijezde, na nekoliko planeta, i mislim da je to stvarno uzbudljivo, uspoređujući to s onom verzijom gdje smo zauvijek ograničeni na Zemlju do nekog mogućeg izumiranja.
CA: So you've somehow slashed the cost of building a rocket by 75 percent, depending on how you calculate it. How on Earth have you done that? NASA has been doing this for years. How have you done this?
CA: Znači nekako ste smanjili trošak izgradnje rakete za sedamdesetpet posto, ovisno o računici. Kako si samo to uspio učiniti? NASA već radi to godinama. Kak si to učinio?
EM: Well, we've made significant advances in the technology of the airframe, the engines, the electronics and the launch operation. There's a long list of innovations that we've come up with there that are a little difficult to communicate in this talk, but --
EM: Pa postigli smo značajna postignuća u tehnologiji stvaranja trupa aviona, motora, elektroničkih uređaja i uređaja za pokretanje. Lista inovacija je duga, ona do koje smo došli, koje je teško predočiti u ovom razgovoru, ali --
CA: Not least because you could still get copied, right? You haven't patented this stuff. It's really interesting to me.
CA: Nije još puštena u javnost jer bi mogla biti kopirana, je li tako? Još niste patentirali te proizvode. To mi se čini vrlo zanimljivo.
EM: No, we don't patent.CA: You didn't patent because you think it's more dangerous to patent than not to patent.
EM: Ne, ne patentiramo. Niste patentirali jer mislite da je opasnije patentirati nego ne.
EM: Since our primary competitors are national governments, the enforceability of patents is questionable.(Laughter) (Applause)
EM: Pošto su naši primarni natjecatelji državne vlade, izvršnost patenata je upitna. (Smijeh)(Pljesak)
CA: That's really, really interesting. But the big innovation is still ahead, and you're working on it now. Tell us about this.
CA: To je jako, jako zanimljvo. Velike su inovacije još uvijek ispred nas, i vi radite na njima. Reci nam više o tome.
EM: Right, so the big innovation—
EM: Da, znači velika je inovacija --
CA: In fact, let's roll that video and you can talk us through it, what's happening here.
CA: Zapravo, hajmo prikazat taj video i možeš nam usput ispričati što se na njemu događa.
EM: Absolutely. So the thing about rockets is that they're all expendable. All rockets that fly today are fully expendable. The space shuttle was an attempt at a reusable rocket, but even the main tank of the space shuttle was thrown away every time, and the parts that were reusable took a 10,000-person group nine months to refurbish for flight. So the space shuttle ended up costing a billion dollars per flight. Obviously that doesn't work very well for —
EM: Naravno. Znači ono važno kod raketa je da su one sve potrošne. Sve rakete koje danas lete su u potpunosti potrošne. Space shuttle je bio pokušaj stvaranja rakete za višekratnu upotrebu, ali čak i glavni spremnik space shuttlea bio odbačen svaki put, i dijelovi koji su se mogli ponovno iskoristiti su zahtjevali grupu od 10000 ljudi i devet mjeseci da je obnove za ponovni let. Pa je konačna cijena space shuttlea bila oko 9 bilijuna dolara po letu. Jasno je da to ne funkcionira dobro.
CA: What just happened there? We just saw something land?
CA: Što se to upravo dogodilo? Je li nešto upravo sletjelo?
EM: That's right. So it's important that the rocket stages be able to come back, to be able to return to the launch site and be ready to launch again within a matter of hours.
EM: Da. Znači važno je da raketa sleti tako da se može vratiti natrah, da se može vratiti na polazište i da se ponovno pokrene unutar nekoliko sati.
CA: Wow. Reusable rockets.EM: Yes. (Applause) And so what a lot of people don't realize is, the cost of the fuel, of the propellant, is very small. It's much like on a jet. So the cost of the propellant is about .3 percent of the cost of the rocket. So it's possible to achieve, let's say, roughly 100-fold improvement in the cost of spaceflight if you can effectively reuse the rocket. That's why it's so important. Every mode of transport that we use, whether it's planes, trains, automobiles, bikes, horses, is reusable, but not rockets. So we must solve this problem in order to become a space-faring civilization.
CA: Wow. Višekratne rakete. EM: Da. (Pljesak) I što većina ljudi ne shvaća je da, je cijena goriva vrlo niska. Više je kao kod mlažnjaka. Pa je trošak na gorivo oko 3% troška rakete. Pa je moguće postići, recimo, poboljšanje od oko 100 puta troška na let u svemir ako možete učinkovito ponovno iskoristiti raketu. To je razlog zašto je toliko važno. Svaki način prijevoza koji koristimo, bilo da se radi o avionima, automobilima, biciklima, konjima, svi se mogu ponovno koristiti, ali ne i rakete. Dakle moramo riješiti tak problem kako bi postali civilizacija koja putuje svemirom.
CA: You asked me the question earlier of how popular traveling on cruises would be if you had to burn your ships afterward.EM: Certain cruises are apparently highly problematic.
CA: Postavio si mi pitanje prije o tome koliko bi popularno bilo krstarenje kad bi nakon plovidbe trebali spaljivati brodove. Određena krstarenja su očito jako problematična.
CA: Definitely more expensive. So that's potentially absolutely disruptive technology, and, I guess, paves the way for your dream to actually take, at some point, to take humanity to Mars at scale. You'd like to see a colony on Mars.
CA: I definitivno skuplja. Pa bi ta tehnologija mogla definitivno uzrokovati poremećaje, i, nagađam, otvoriti put snu da se zapravo počne, u određeno vrijeme, sa postupnim odlaskom čovječanstva na Mars. Volio bih vidjeti koloniju na Marsu.
EM: Yeah, exactly. SpaceX, or some combination of companies and governments, needs to make progress in the direction of making life multi-planetary, of establishing a base on another planet, on Mars -- being the only realistic option -- and then building that base up until we're a true multi-planet species.
EM: Da, točno. SpaceX, ili neka druga kombinacija tvrka ili vladi, mora napredovati u smjeru stvaranja života na više planeta, ili osnutka baze na drugom planetu, na Marsu ... koji je jedina realna opcija.. i nakon toga nadogradnja te baze dok ne postanemo stvarno vrsta koja naseljava više planeta.
CA: So progress on this "let's make it reusable," how is that going? That was just a simulation video we saw. How's it going?
CA: Znači napredak ovdje u "potrebno je učiniti je višekratnom", kako se tu krećete? Video koji smo vidjeli je bio samo simulacija. Kako napredujete?
EM: We're actually, we've been making some good progress recently with something we call the Grasshopper Test Project, where we're testing the vertical landing portion of the flight, the sort of terminal portion which is quite tricky. And we've had some good tests.
EM: Zapravo, vrlo dobro napredujemo u zadnje vrijeme sa nečim što zovemo Grasshopper Test Project, gdje testiramo vertikalno slijetanje, dio koji je prilično zeznut. I radili smo na nekoliko dobrih testiranja.
CA: Can we see that?EM: Yeah. So that's just to give a sense of scale. We dressed a cowboy as Johnny Cash and bolted the mannequin to the rocket. (Laughter)
CA: Možemo li to vidjeti? EM: Da. Ovo je samo da doživite razinu. Odjenuli smo kauboja kao Johnny Cash i stavili lutku na raketu.
CA: All right, let's see that video then, because this is actually amazing when you think about it. You've never seen this before. A rocket blasting off and then --
CA: U redu, hajmo onda vidjet tu snimku jer ovo je zapravo nevjerojatno kada bolje razmislite. NIkad ovo niste vidjeli. Lansiranje rakete i onda...
EM: Yeah, so that rocket is about the size of a 12-story building. (Rocket launch) So now it's hovering at about 40 meters, and it's constantly adjusting the angle, the pitch and yaw of the main engine, and maintaining roll with cold gas thrusters.
EM: Da, raketa je otprilike veličine zgrade od dvanaest katova. (Lansiranje) Znači sada lebdi na oko 40 metara i stalno poravnava kut, nagib i kut skretanja glavnog motora, i održavanje kretanja sa propelerima plina kamenog ugljena.
CA: How cool is that? (Applause) Elon, how have you done this? These projects are so -- Paypal, SolarCity, Tesla, SpaceX, they're so spectacularly different, they're such ambitious projects at scale. How on Earth has one person been able to innovate in this way? What is it about you?
CA: Nije li to odlično? (Pljesak) Elon, kako si to postigao? Ovi projekti: Paypal, Solarcity, Tesla, SpaceX, su toliko nevjerojatno drugačiji, toliko su ambiciozni projekti unutar ranga. Kako, pobogu, je mogla samo jedna osoba stvoriti toliko inovacija? Što je to u tebi?
EM: I don't know, actually. I don't have a good answer for you. I work a lot. I mean, a lot.
EM: Ne znam, zapravo. Ne mogu ti dati dobar odgovor. Radim puno. Stvarno puno.
CA: Well, I have a theory.EM: Okay. All right.
CA: Zapravo imam teoriju. OK, u redu.
CA: My theory is that you have an ability to think at a system level of design that pulls together design, technology and business, so if TED was TBD, design, technology and business, into one package, synthesize it in a way that very few people can and -- and this is the critical thing -- feel so damn confident in that clicked-together package that you take crazy risks. You bet your fortune on it, and you seem to have done that multiple times. I mean, almost no one can do that. Is that -- could we have some of that secret sauce? Can we put it into our education system? Can someone learn from you? It is truly amazing what you've done.
CA: Moja teorija je da ti imaš sposobnost razmišljanja na razini dizajna koji udružuje dizajn, tehnologiju i posao, i da je TED TBD, dizajn, tehnologija i biznis, u jednom sintetiziraj to na način da samo nekoliko ljudi može ... i ovo je kritika ... da osjeća toliko prokleto samopouzdano u tome spoji koji funkcionira da ludi riskiraš. Uložio si svoje bogatstvo, i mislim da si to napravio više puta. Mislim, skoro nitko to ne može. Je li to -- možemo li doznati dio tajne? Možemo li to staviti u naše obrazovni sustav? Može li se učiti od tebe? Stvarno je nevjerojatno što si učinio.
EM: Well, thanks. Thank you. Well, I do think there's a good framework for thinking. It is physics. You know, the sort of first principles reasoning. Generally I think there are -- what I mean by that is, boil things down to their fundamental truths and reason up from there, as opposed to reasoning by analogy. Through most of our life, we get through life by reasoning by analogy, which essentially means copying what other people do with slight variations. And you have to do that. Otherwise, mentally, you wouldn't be able to get through the day. But when you want to do something new, you have to apply the physics approach. Physics is really figuring out how to discover new things that are counterintuitive, like quantum mechanics. It's really counterintuitive. So I think that's an important thing to do, and then also to really pay attention to negative feedback, and solicit it, particularly from friends. This may sound like simple advice, but hardly anyone does that, and it's incredibly helpful.
EM: Pa, hvala. Hvala ti. Doista mislim da postoji nekoliko okvira unutar kojih razmišljati. To je fizika. Znaš, prvi principi razmišljanja. Generalno mislim da postoje -- ono što želim reći je da, doći do korijena stvari i prosuđivati od tuda, kao kontrast analognom prosuđivanju. Kroz većinu našeg života, idemo kroz život analognim razmišljanjem što je zapravo kopiranje što drugi ljudi radi sa malim varijacijama. I to je ono što morate učiniti. Ako ne, mentalno, ne možete doći do kraja dana. I kada želite nešto novo, morate upotrijebiti fizikalni pristup. Fizika se stvarno bavi time kako otkriti nove stvari koje su protuintuitivne, kao kvantna mehanika. To je stvarno protuintuitivno. I mislim da je to važno za učiniti, i nakon toga dati pažnju negativnoj povratnoj informaciji i zatražiti je, posebno od prijatelja. Ovo mi moglo zvučati kao jednostavan savjet, ali skoro nitko to ne radi, i od nevjerojatne je pomoći.
CA: Boys and girls watching, study physics. Learn from this man. Elon Musk, I wish we had all day, but thank you so much for coming to TED.
CA: Mladići i djevoje koji gledate, učite fiziku. Učite od ovog čovjeka. Elon Musk, kada bi barem imali cijeli dan ali hvala ti što si došao u TED.
EM: Thank you. CA: That was awesome. That was really, really cool. Look at that. (Applause)
EM: Hvala. Bilo je super. CA: Stvarno je bilo odlično. Gledaj ovo. (Pljesak)
Just take a bow. That was fantastic. Thank you so much.
Nakloni se. Bilo je odlično. Hvala vam puno.