Chris Anderson: Elon, hey, welcome back to TED. It's great to have you here.
克里斯 • 安德森(安): 伊隆,歡迎再次參加 TED。 真的很榮幸你能來。
Elon Musk: Thanks for having me.
伊隆 • 馬斯克(馬):多謝邀請。
CA: So, in the next half hour or so, we're going to spend some time exploring your vision for what an exciting future might look like, which I guess makes the first question a little ironic: Why are you boring?
安:接下來的半個多小時, 我們要花點時間 探索你的願景,未來怎樣令人興奮。 我想問的第一個問題會有點反諷。 你為什麽無聊?(註:他的公司取名 「無聊」The BORING Company )
EM: Yeah. I ask myself that frequently. We're trying to dig a hole under LA, and this is to create the beginning of what will hopefully be a 3D network of tunnels to alleviate congestion. So right now, one of the most soul-destroying things is traffic. It affects people in every part of the world. It takes away so much of your life. It's horrible. It's particularly horrible in LA.
馬:是啊。 我也經常這麽問自己。 我們打算在洛杉磯的 地底下挖個大窟窿, 這可是開創了新起點, 希望建成三維網路隧道, 來緩解交通擁堵。 現在交通是件最令人難以忍受的事, 影響到世界各地的人, 也佔用了人很多的時間。 這太可怕了。 在洛杉磯尤其恐怖。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
CA: I think you've brought with you the first visualization that's been shown of this. Can I show this?
安:我想你帶來了 未來工程的首映片。 我能放嗎?
EM: Yeah, absolutely. So this is the first time -- Just to show what we're talking about. So a couple of key things that are important in having a 3D tunnel network. First of all, you have to be able to integrate the entrance and exit of the tunnel seamlessly into the fabric of the city. So by having an elevator, sort of a car skate, that's on an elevator, you can integrate the entrance and exits to the tunnel network just by using two parking spaces. And then the car gets on a skate. There's no speed limit here, so we're designing this to be able to operate at 200 kilometers an hour.
馬:當然可以了,這還是第一次, 讓大家看看我們在說什麼。 裏面有幾個很重要的關鍵 在講三維網路隧道的建設。 你得先整合隧道的入出口, 無縫對接城市。 所以,藉由電梯 和位於電梯上的汽車滑托, 就可以整合隧道的網路出入口, 只佔用兩個停車位的空間。 接著車子就上了汽車滑托。 隧道是不限速的。 我們設計車速能到每小時 200 公里。
CA: How much?
安:多快?
EM: 200 kilometers an hour, or about 130 miles per hour. So you should be able to get from, say, Westwood to LAX in six minutes -- five, six minutes.
馬:時速 200 公里,約 130 英里。 從西木區到洛杉磯機場應該 只要六分鐘,五、六分鐘的樣子。
(Applause)
(掌聲)
CA: So possibly, initially done, it's like on a sort of toll road-type basis.
安:因此竣工以後 可能類似收費公路。
EM: Yeah.
馬:是的。
CA: Which, I guess, alleviates some traffic from the surface streets as well.
安:我想這也可以 緩解部分地面交通的壓力。
EM: So, I don't know if people noticed it in the video, but there's no real limit to how many levels of tunnel you can have. You can go much further deep than you can go up. The deepest mines are much deeper than the tallest buildings are tall, so you can alleviate any arbitrary level of urban congestion with a 3D tunnel network. This is a very important point. So a key rebuttal to the tunnels is that if you add one layer of tunnels, that will simply alleviate congestion, it will get used up, and then you'll be back where you started, back with congestion. But you can go to any arbitrary number of tunnels, any number of levels.
馬:我不知道大家 有沒有在影片中注意到 挖多少層隧道其實沒有限制。 你可以往下挖的深度 遠多於往上蓋的高度。 最深的礦井深度比最高的建築還要高, 所以想要緩解任何級別的城市擁堵 都可以通過三維網路隧道來解決。 這是非常重要的一點。 反駁隧道可行性的一樣關鍵是 每增加一層隧道來紓解交通壅塞 很快就會被塞滿而失效, 然後你回到起始點,又壅塞了。 不過你可以想挖多少層就挖多少層, 多少層都可以。
CA: But people -- seen traditionally, it's incredibly expensive to dig, and that would block this idea.
安:可是依過往的經驗, 挖地道非常耗錢, 有可能會阻礙這個想法。
EM: Yeah. Well, they're right. To give you an example, the LA subway extension, which is -- I think it's a two-and-a-half mile extension that was just completed for two billion dollars. So it's roughly a billion dollars a mile to do the subway extension in LA. And this is not the highest utility subway in the world. So yeah, it's quite difficult to dig tunnels normally. I think we need to have at least a tenfold improvement in the cost per mile of tunneling.
馬:是的, 他們是沒錯。 擧個例子,洛杉磯地鐵的延伸工程, 我想是兩英里半的擴建, 剛剛完工,花了二十億美元。 所以在洛杉磯擴建地鐵 大約每英里十億美元。 這還不是世上最高效用的地鐵。 說的沒錯,挖隧道通常都很難。 我想至少每英里的成本需改善十倍 才能夠用隧道施工法。
CA: And how could you achieve that?
安:那如何實現呢?
EM: Actually, if you just do two things, you can get to approximately an order of magnitude improvement, and I think you can go beyond that. So the first thing to do is to cut the tunnel diameter by a factor of two or more. So a single road lane tunnel according to regulations has to be 26 feet, maybe 28 feet in diameter to allow for crashes and emergency vehicles and sufficient ventilation for combustion engine cars. But if you shrink that diameter to what we're attempting, which is 12 feet, which is plenty to get an electric skate through, you drop the diameter by a factor of two and the cross-sectional area by a factor of four, and the tunneling cost scales with the cross-sectional area. So that's roughly a half-order of magnitude improvement right there. Then tunneling machines currently tunnel for half the time, then they stop, and then the rest of the time is putting in reinforcements for the tunnel wall. So if you design the machine instead to do continuous tunneling and reinforcing, that will give you a factor of two improvement. Combine that and that's a factor of eight. Also these machines are far from being at their power or thermal limits, so you can jack up the power to the machine substantially. I think you can get at least a factor of two, maybe a factor of four or five improvement on top of that. So I think there's a fairly straightforward series of steps to get somewhere in excess of an order of magnitude improvement in the cost per mile, and our target actually is -- we've got a pet snail called Gary, this is from Gary the snail from "South Park," I mean, sorry, "SpongeBob SquarePants."
馬:其實,只要做兩件事, 大約可提高一個數量級, (註:十分之一的花費) 我想還可以更好。 第一件事是縮小隧道直徑, 縮一半或更多。 據法律規定,一條單程隧道 得有 26 或 28 英尺的直徑, 要考慮撞車和緊急車輛的通行, 還要讓機動車夠通風。 但如果縮小直徑── 我們在嘗試12 英尺── 夠電動滑托通過了。 把直徑減到一半, 截面積會縮小四倍, 對應切面的隧道成本也會降低四倍, 那大約改善了半個數量級。 現在的挖隧道機 挖到一半時會停下來, 留下時間加固, 加固隧道壁。 所以如果有人設計機械 連續挖隧道還同時加固, 那就是兩倍的改善。 兩個加起來,就是八倍。 而且這些機器遠未發揮 最大效能和熱極限, 可以大幅提昇機器的功率, 我想至少增效兩倍, 甚至四、五倍的提升。 我覺得靠這一系列 相當直接簡潔的步驟, 能達到超過一個數量級的改進, 以每英里的成本來計算的話。 而我們的目標實際上是── 我們有隻叫「小蝸」的寵物蝸牛, 是「南方公園」電視節目的小蝸牛, 抱歉,我想說的是「海綿寶寶」。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
So Gary is capable of -- currently he's capable of going 14 times faster than a tunnel-boring machine.
「小蝸」很有能力, 目前它能比隧道鑽掘機 快 14 倍。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
CA: You want to beat Gary.
安:你想打敗「小蝸」。
EM: We want to beat Gary.
馬:我們想打敗「小蝸」。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
He's not a patient little fellow, and that will be victory. Victory is beating the snail.
他可不是有耐心的小傢伙, 我們要──那就是勝利。 勝利就是打敗蝸牛。
CA: But a lot of people imagining, dreaming about future cities, they imagine that actually the solution is flying cars, drones, etc. You go aboveground. Why isn't that a better solution? You save all that tunneling cost.
安:但也有很多人 在幻想未來城市的時候, 想到的解決之道 是飛行汽車,無人機等等, 在地面上發展。 為什麼那些不是更好的方案? 那些都省掉大筆隧道成本。
EM: Right. I'm in favor of flying things. Obviously, I do rockets, so I like things that fly. This is not some inherent bias against flying things, but there is a challenge with flying cars in that they'll be quite noisy, the wind force generated will be very high. Let's just say that if something's flying over your head, a whole bunch of flying cars going all over the place, that is not an anxiety-reducing situation.
馬:是的。我支持飛行器。 我做火箭, 顯然我喜歡會飛的玩意兒。 我內心對飛行器沒有偏見, 但飛行汽車有問題, 因為他們會很吵, 飛來飛去產生的風也很大。 假如有東西在你的頭上方飛, 一大堆車子在空中到處飛, 這場面不由得讓人焦慮。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
You don't think to yourself, "Well, I feel better about today." You're thinking, "Did they service their hubcap, or is it going to come off and guillotine me?" Things like that.
你可不會想:「我覺得今天很不錯。」 你可能會想:「這車的輪轂保養了嗎? 會不會脫落斬斷我的脖子?」 類似這種狀況。
CA: So you've got this vision of future cities with these rich, 3D networks of tunnels underneath. Is there a tie-in here with Hyperloop? Could you apply these tunnels to use for this Hyperloop idea you released a few years ago.
安:所以你想像的前景 未來城市是四通八達的 立體地下網路隧道。 這搭配超迴路列車(Hyperloop)嗎? 你會把幾年前發布的超迴路列車概念 用在這些隧道嗎?
EM: Yeah, so we've been sort of puttering around with the Hyperloop stuff for a while. We built a Hyperloop test track adjacent to SpaceX, just for a student competition, to encourage innovative ideas in transport. And it actually ends up being the biggest vacuum chamber in the world after the Large Hadron Collider, by volume. So it was quite fun to do that, but it was kind of a hobby thing, and then we think we might -- so we've built a little pusher car to push the student pods, but we're going to try seeing how fast we can make the pusher go if it's not pushing something. So we're cautiously optimistic we'll be able to be faster than the world's fastest bullet train even in a .8-mile stretch.
馬:是的,我們嘗試超迴路列車 有段時間了。 我們毗鄰 SpaceX 建了一條 超迴路列車測試賽道, 是個學生競賽, 激發學生想出交通運輸的新創想法。 實際上它是目前世上最大的真空艙, 僅次於大型強子對撞機, 按體積來算的話。 做這個很有趣,但是個業餘興趣, 我們想── 我們造了輛助力車 來推動學生的競賽車廂, 但我們也想看助力車能跑多快, 尤其是空載的狀態下。 我們對此審慎樂觀, 有可能會比世界上 最快的子彈列車還要快, 即便是跑在 0.8 英里長的軌道上。
CA: Whoa. Good brakes.
安:噢,剎車系統很不錯。
EM: Yeah, I mean, it's -- yeah. It's either going to smash into tiny pieces or go quite fast.
馬:是的,我的意思是──不錯。 要麼粉成了碎片,要麽就快到無敵。
CA: But you can picture, then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel running quite long distances.
安:但你可以想像下, 超迴路列車行駛在隧道中, 還能跑很遠。
EM: Exactly. And looking at tunneling technology, it turns out that in order to make a tunnel, you have to -- In order to seal against the water table, you've got to typically design a tunnel wall to be good to about five or six atmospheres. So to go to vacuum is only one atmosphere, or near-vacuum. So actually, it sort of turns out that automatically, if you build a tunnel that is good enough to resist the water table, it is automatically capable of holding vacuum.
馬:完全正確。 再看看隧道技術, 事實證明要想挖隧道, 你必須── 為了要密封對付地下水, 通常設計的隧道牆 要硬到能承受至少五、六個大氣壓。 而真空下只要一個大氣壓, 或近真空的狀態。 事實上,自然而然, 如果你造的隧道好到能防地下水, 顯然就能夠維持真空。
CA: Huh.
安:嗯。
EM: So, yeah.
馬:是啊。
CA: And so you could actually picture, what kind of length tunnel is in Elon's future to running Hyperloop?
安:你想未來要運行你的 Hyperloop 隧道得有多長?
EM: I think there's no real length limit. You could dig as much as you want. I think if you were to do something like a DC-to-New York Hyperloop, I think you'd probably want to go underground the entire way because it's a high-density area. You're going under a lot of buildings and houses, and if you go deep enough, you cannot detect the tunnel. Sometimes people think, well, it's going to be pretty annoying to have a tunnel dug under my house. Like, if that tunnel is dug more than about three or four tunnel diameters beneath your house, you will not be able to detect it being dug at all. In fact, if you're able to detect the tunnel being dug, whatever device you are using, you can get a lot of money for that device from the Israeli military, who is trying to detect tunnels from Hamas, and from the US Customs and Border patrol that try and detect drug tunnels. So the reality is that earth is incredibly good at absorbing vibrations, and once the tunnel depth is below a certain level, it is undetectable. Maybe if you have a very sensitive seismic instrument, you might be able to detect it.
馬:我想長度不受限。 你可以想挖多長就挖多長。 我想如果你要建造 像華府特區到紐約的 Hyperloop, 你可能要把整條路都挪到地底下去。 因為這些地方的人口高度集中, 你要穿過很多建築和房屋底下。 只要挖得夠深, 你感覺不到隧道的存在。 有時人們覺得會很煩, 如果在我家地底下挖隧道的話。 假如把隧道挖到 超過你房底三、四個隧道直徑深, 你根本就不會感到它在挖洞。 事實上,要是你能感覺到在挖隧道, 不管用什麽裝備, 你都可以用那裝備 從以色列軍方撈上一筆, 因為他們一直在嘗試 偵察出哈馬斯的隧道, 當然還有美國海關和邊檢, 他們一直嘗試偵測地下販毒。 但其實是 地球很能吸收振動, 一旦隧道挖到一定的深度, 就測不到了。 你得有高靈敏度的測震儀 才可能測得到。
CA: So you've started a new company to do this called The Boring Company. Very nice. Very funny.
安:你開了新公司專門做這個, 叫做「The Boring Company」。 很好。很好笑。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
EM: What's funny about that?
馬:有什麼好笑的?
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
CA: How much of your time is this?
安:你花多少時間在這項目上?
EM: It's maybe ... two or three percent.
馬:大概 2% 到 3%。
CA: You've called it a hobby. This is what an Elon Musk hobby looks like.
安:你買了個業餘愛好。 伊隆 • 馬斯克的業餘愛好像這樣!
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
EM: I mean, it really is, like -- This is basically interns and people doing it part time. We bought some second-hand machinery. It's kind of puttering along, but it's making good progress, so --
馬:我的意思是它真的是 基本上是實習生和兼職的人在做。 我們買了些二手設備。 好像是在消磨時光,但進展還不錯。
CA: So an even bigger part of your time is being spent on electrifying cars and transport through Tesla. Is one of the motivations for the tunneling project the realization that actually, in a world where cars are electric and where they're self-driving, there may end up being more cars on the roads on any given hour than there are now?
安:你更大部分的時間 花在特斯拉電動車和運輸。 你挖隧道的動機…… 你實際去挖隧道的原因之一, 是不是因為一旦世上 有了電動車和自駕車, 未來路上的汽車可能比目前更多呢?
EM: Yeah, exactly. A lot of people think that when you make cars autonomous, they'll be able to go faster and that will alleviate congestion. And to some degree that will be true, but once you have shared autonomy where it's much cheaper to go by car and you can go point to point, the affordability of going in a car will be better than that of a bus. Like, it will cost less than a bus ticket. So the amount of driving that will occur will be much greater with shared autonomy, and actually traffic will get far worse.
馬:是的,確實這樣。 很多人覺得一旦讓汽車自動駕駛, 可以開得更快還能緩解交通。 一定程度上有它的道理。 然而一旦共用自駕車更便宜, 任意起點、目的地都到得了, 搭車將比搭巴士便宜, 價格低於巴士的票價。 所以共用自駕會使上路的汽車更多, 交通會變得更糟。
CA: You started Tesla with the goal of persuading the world that electrification was the future of cars, and a few years ago, people were laughing at you. Now, not so much.
安:你成立特斯拉要說服全世界 電動車是未來。 幾年前人們取笑你, 現在沒那麼多了。
EM: OK.
馬:好吧,
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
I don't know. I don't know.
我不知道。
CA: But isn't it true that pretty much every auto manufacturer has announced serious electrification plans for the short- to medium-term future?
安:是不是真的每家汽車製造商 都鄭重其事地推出電動車計劃, 目標設在中或短期的未來?
EM: Yeah. Yeah. I think almost every automaker has some electric vehicle program. They vary in seriousness. Some are very serious about transitioning entirely to electric, and some are just dabbling in it. And some, amazingly, are still pursuing fuel cells, but I think that won't last much longer.
馬:是啊,可不是麽。 我想幾乎每家汽車製造商 都有些電動車計劃, 僅在投入的精力上有所區別。 有些非常認真地要完全轉向電動, 有些只不過是略微涉足。 令人想不到的是 有些還在追逐燃料電池, 我覺得他們撐不了太久。
CA: But isn't there a sense, though, Elon, where you can now just declare victory and say, you know, "We did it." Let the world electrify, and you go on and focus on other stuff?
安:伊隆,這有道理嗎? 你現在是可以宣佈勝利: 「我們做到了。」 讓汽車界電氣化, 接著你繼續關注別的東西?
EM: Yeah. I intend to stay with Tesla as far into the future as I can imagine, and there are a lot of exciting things that we have coming. Obviously the Model 3 is coming soon. We'll be unveiling the Tesla Semi truck.
馬:是的。 在以後可預見的一段時間内, 我打算留在特斯拉, 我們還有很多令人興奮的東西, 很明顯地 Model 3 要上市了。 我們還將揭曉特斯拉半掛式卡車。
CA: OK, we're going to come to this. So Model 3, it's supposed to be coming in July-ish.
安:好的,我們現在就來看一下, Model 3 預定在七月左右面市。
EM: Yeah, it's looking quite good for starting production in July.
馬:是的,看起來能在七月開始生產。
CA: Wow. One of the things that people are so excited about is the fact that it's got autopilot. And you put out this video a while back showing what that technology would look like.
安:很棒。 人們很興奮的是 它能自動駕駛。 這片子你放出來有段時間了, 也講了未來技術是什麼樣的。
EM: Yeah.
馬:是的。
CA: There's obviously autopilot in Model S right now. What are we seeing here?
安:現在是 Model S 自動駕駛。 我們看到什麼?
EM: Yeah, so this is using only cameras and GPS. So there's no LIDAR or radar being used here. This is just using passive optical, which is essentially what a person uses. The whole road system is meant to be navigated with passive optical, or cameras, and so once you solve cameras or vision, then autonomy is solved. If you don't solve vision, it's not solved. So that's why our focus is so heavily on having a vision neural net that's very effective for road conditions.
馬:沒錯,這車只用相機和 GPS, 沒用光達也沒用雷達。(註:LIDAR, light detection and ranging) 僅用無源光,大多數人用的那種。 整個道路系統的導航 採用無源光,也稱為相機, 一旦可以用相機解決, 或掌控視線, 那麼自動駕駛就解決了。 不解決視線,問題就沒解決。 這也是為什麼我們 特別關注視覺神經網路, 對於識別路面狀況非常有效。
CA: Right. Many other people are going the LIDAR route. You want cameras plus radar is most of it.
安:對,其他好些人使用光達。 你把雷達和相機加在一起用。
EM: You can absolutely be superhuman with just cameras. Like, you can probably do it ten times better than humans would, just cameras.
馬:單用相機就絕對已經超人了。 只用相機完全可以十倍於人類, 只用相機哦。
CA: So the new cars being sold right now have eight cameras in them. They can't yet do what that showed. When will they be able to?
安:現在市面上的新車有八台相機, 還做不到影片顯示的那樣。 那什麼時候可以?
EM: I think we're still on track for being able to go cross-country from LA to New York by the end of the year, fully autonomous.
馬:我們長途越野的時程仍如計畫, 到年底將實現從洛杉磯到紐約 完全自動駕駛。
CA: OK, so by the end of the year, you're saying, someone's going to sit in a Tesla without touching the steering wheel, tap in "New York," off it goes.
安:好的,你是說到年底, 坐上特斯拉的人,無需操控方向盤, 點一下「紐約」,就啟程了。
EM: Yeah.
馬:是的。
CA: Won't ever have to touch the wheel -- by the end of 2017.
安:到 2017 年底,無需再摸方向盤。
EM: Yeah. Essentially, November or December of this year, we should be able to go all the way from a parking lot in California to a parking lot in New York, no controls touched at any point during the entire journey.
馬:差不多是今年的 11 或 12 月, 我們應該能從加州的停車場, 一路開到紐約的停車場, 全程無需觸控。
(Applause)
(掌聲)
CA: Amazing. But part of that is possible because you've already got a fleet of Teslas driving all these roads. You're accumulating a huge amount of data of that national road system.
安:太棒了。 但這可辦得到的部分原因 是因為你已有整個 特斯拉車隊行駛在路上, 累積了海量的全國道路系統數據。
EM: Yes, but the thing that will be interesting is that I'm actually fairly confident it will be able to do that route even if you change the route dynamically. So, it's fairly easy -- If you say I'm going to be really good at one specific route, that's one thing, but it should be able to go, really be very good, certainly once you enter a highway, to go anywhere on the highway system in a given country. So it's not sort of limited to LA to New York. We could change it and make it Seattle-Florida, that day, in real time. So you were going from LA to New York. Now go from LA to Toronto.
馬:是的,更有趣的是── 實際上,我相當有自信 它能行駛特定的路徑, 即使隨機變換路徑也到得了。 這很簡單。 走特定的路徑很行是一回事, 但必須要能,非常能, 一旦駛入高速公路系統, 想到哪兒就能到哪兒, 不論在哪一個國家。 所以不限於從洛杉磯到紐約, 我們還可以改成 從西雅圖到佛羅里達, 就在同一天,隨時隨地。 你本來是從洛杉磯去紐約, 現在改為從洛杉磯去多倫多。
CA: So leaving aside regulation for a second, in terms of the technology alone, the time when someone will be able to buy one of your cars and literally just take the hands off the wheel and go to sleep and wake up and find that they've arrived, how far away is that, to do that safely?
安:把法律規章先放一旁, 僅就技術而言, 當有人買了你的車, 簡直就能雙手離開方向盤, 放心大膽去睡覺, 一覺醒來,發現已到目的地了。 離實現還要多久?
EM: I think that's about two years. So the real trick of it is not how do you make it work say 99.9 percent of the time, because, like, if a car crashes one in a thousand times, then you're probably still not going to be comfortable falling asleep. You shouldn't be, certainly.
馬:我覺得大概得兩年。 真正棘手的不是 99.9% 的時間行得通, 因為就算一千次裡撞車一次, 那你就沒法放心睡覺了。 絕對不會,那肯定的。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
It's never going to be perfect. No system is going to be perfect, but if you say it's perhaps -- the car is unlikely to crash in a hundred lifetimes, or a thousand lifetimes, then people are like, OK, wow, if I were to live a thousand lives, I would still most likely never experience a crash, then that's probably OK.
沒有什麽事情是完美的, 沒有系統全然完美。 但是如果說 這車不太可能 在百倍或千倍壽命期間撞車, 那人們會被打動, 當然我沒千倍長的壽命, 在我活著的期間應該不會撞車, 那是可以接受的。
CA: To sleep. I guess the big concern of yours is that people may actually get seduced too early to think that this is safe, and that you'll have some horrible incident happen that puts things back.
安:安心去睡覺。 我猜你最擔心的 是人們可能過早被誘惑 而認為這是安全的, 然後發生可怕的事情,以致倒退了。
EM: Well, I think that the autonomy system is likely to at least mitigate the crash, except in rare circumstances. The thing to appreciate about vehicle safety is this is probabilistic. I mean, there's some chance that any time a human driver gets in a car, that they will have an accident that is their fault. It's never zero. So really the key threshold for autonomy is how much better does autonomy need to be than a person before you can rely on it?
馬:我覺得自駕系統 至少能減輕事故的發生, 除非在極端情況下。 我們要意識到車輛的安全性 是概率事件。 我的意思是任何時候 都有可能因為人為疏失而發生車禍, 概率從來不是零。 事實上,自動駕駛的關鍵障礙是 自動駕駛比人駕駛要好過多少, 然後你就能夠依賴它。
CA: But once you get literally safe hands-off driving, the power to disrupt the whole industry seems massive, because at that point you've spoken of people being able to buy a car, drops you off at work, and then you let it go and provide a sort of Uber-like service to other people, earn you money, maybe even cover the cost of your lease of that car, so you can kind of get a car for free. Is that really likely?
安:一旦你的安全自駕成真, 看來它顛覆整個業界的 力量會很巨大, 因為你說的是到時候 能買輛車載你去上班, 然後讓那車像 Uber 那樣 接送其他的人, 為你賺錢,甚至分擔你租車的費用, 就像你能免費得了一輛車。 真的有可能嗎?
EM: Yeah. Absolutely this is what will happen. So there will be a shared autonomy fleet where you buy your car and you can choose to use that car exclusively, you could choose to have it be used only by friends and family, only by other drivers who are rated five star, you can choose to share it sometimes but not other times. That's 100 percent what will occur. It's just a question of when.
馬:是的,這絕對會發生。 以後會有共用的自駕車隊。 你買輛車, 可選擇只供自己一個人使用, 也可以僅給親朋好友使用, 或僅限於其他有五星評級的用車人, 你可以選擇分享這車的時段。 這百分之百會發生, 只不過是時間早晚而已。
CA: Wow. So you mentioned the Semi and I think you're planning to announce this in September, but I'm curious whether there's anything you could show us today?
安:喔。 你提到了半掛式卡車, 我記得你打算在九月發佈, 但我想知道今天 你打算讓我們看看嗎?
EM: I will show you a teaser shot of the truck.
馬:我帶來了卡車預告片的海報。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
It's alive.
它活生生的。
CA: OK.
安:不錯。
EM: That's definitely a case where we want to be cautious about the autonomy features. Yeah.
馬:這絕對是我們對於 自駕功能要謹慎的例子。 沒錯。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
CA: We can't see that much of it, but it doesn't look like just a little friendly neighborhood truck. It looks kind of badass. What sort of semi is this?
安:我們看不太清楚, 但看起來不像友善的鄰家卡車, 看起來有點像是個壞蛋。 這是什麼樣的半掛車?
EM: So this is a heavy duty, long-range semitruck. So it's the highest weight capability and with long range. So essentially it's meant to alleviate the heavy-duty trucking loads. And this is something which people do not today think is possible. They think the truck doesn't have enough power or it doesn't have enough range, and then with the Tesla Semi we want to show that no, an electric truck actually can out-torque any diesel semi. And if you had a tug-of-war competition, the Tesla Semi will tug the diesel semi uphill.
馬:這是重負載、長程的半掛式卡車。 它載重最高, 還能跑很遠, 本質上就是載重用途。 現今人們認為這不可能, 他們認為卡車的電力不夠, 跑不了太遠; 我們要用特斯拉半掛車 顯示給他們看, 實際上電動卡車的扭矩 勝過任何柴油半掛式卡車。 如果來場拔河比賽, 特斯拉半掛會把柴油半掛車拉上山。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
(Applause)
(掌聲)
CA: That's pretty cool. And short term, these aren't driverless. These are going to be trucks that truck drivers want to drive.
安:那真是酷。短期來看, 還不是無人駕駛。 這是卡車司機很想開的那種車。
EM: Yes. So what will be really fun about this is you have a flat torque RPM curve with an electric motor, whereas with a diesel motor or any kind of internal combustion engine car, you've got a torque RPM curve that looks like a hill. So this will be a very spry truck. You can drive this around like a sports car. There's no gears. It's, like, single speed.
馬:是的。那真正好玩有趣的是 用電動馬達,你會有條 平滑的扭矩/轉速曲線, 而柴油發動機或任意類型內燃機的 扭矩/轉速曲線像山形。 這將是非常輕快的卡車, 開它就像開跑車一樣。 沒有齒輪,有點像單速車。
CA: There's a great movie to be made here somewhere. I don't know what it is and I don't know that it ends well, but it's a great movie.
安:這裡頭有些東西 可以拍成好影片, 我不知道是什麼,也不曉得結局, 但是一部好片子。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
EM: It's quite bizarre test-driving. When I was driving the test prototype for the first truck. It's really weird, because you're driving around and you're just so nimble, and you're in this giant truck.
馬:那是次非常奇怪的試駕。 當我開著第一輛原型卡車, 真的很詭異, 因為你開著這輛巨大的卡車, 而你又覺得它那麽輕巧靈敏。
CA: Wait, you've already driven a prototype?
安:你說什麽?你開過原型車了?
EM: Yeah, I drove it around the parking lot, and I was like, this is crazy.
馬:是的,我在停車場試車, 當時我覺得這真是瘋狂。
CA: Wow. This is no vaporware.
安:喔!這不是霧件(Vaporware: 指先公布,但可能不會發佈的產品。)
EM: It's just like, driving this giant truck and making these mad maneuvers.
馬:我就這樣,開著這輛巨無霸 做各式各樣奇怪的駕駛伎倆。
CA: This is cool. OK, from a really badass picture to a kind of less badass picture. This is just a cute house from "Desperate Housewives" or something. What on earth is going on here?
安:好酷。挺好。 從一張大壞蛋的照片到 不太壞的壞蛋照片, 這好像是絕望主婦劇組那房子, 這到底是怎麽一回事?
EM: Well, this illustrates the picture of the future that I think is how things will evolve. You've got an electric car in the driveway. If you look in between the electric car and the house, there are actually three Powerwalls stacked up against the side of the house, and then that house roof is a solar roof. So that's an actual solar glass roof.
馬:嗯,這描繪未來的樣子, 也就是我想像的未來會如何演進。 有輛電動車停在車道上, 如果你細看車子和房子中間, 在房子邊實際上有三個家用電池, 還有太陽能屋頂, 是個真正的太陽能玻璃屋頂。
CA: OK.
安:好的。
EM: That's a picture of a real -- well, admittedly, it's a real fake house. That's a real fake house.
馬:我得說,照片裡是「真的」假房子。 是「真的」假房子。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
CA: So these roof tiles, some of them have in them basically solar power, the ability to --
安:這些屋瓦, 有些屋瓦 基本上就能產生太陽能。
EM: Yeah. Solar glass tiles where you can adjust the texture and the color to a very fine-grained level, and then there's sort of microlouvers in the glass, such that when you're looking at the roof from street level or close to street level, all the tiles look the same whether there is a solar cell behind it or not. So you have an even color from the ground level. If you were to look at it from a helicopter, you would be actually able to look through and see that some of the glass tiles have a solar cell behind them and some do not. You can't tell from street level.
馬:對,太陽能玻璃瓦, 可以調節質地和顔色, 在細度上調節。 還有類似玻璃的微型百葉窗, 這樣當你站在街上仰望屋頂, 或者站在接近地平的位置, 所有的瓦片看著都一樣, 不管後面有沒有太陽能電池。 顔色會看起來很整齊, 如果從地面向上看的話。 如果從直升機往下看, 實際上可以看穿, 看到在玻璃瓦下面, 有些有太陽能電池,有些沒有。 但站在街上是無法區分的。
CA: You put them in the ones that are likely to see a lot of sun, and that makes these roofs super affordable, right? They're not that much more expensive than just tiling the roof.
安:把它們安置在陽光多的地方, 使得這些屋頂超實惠,不是嗎? 比起普通屋頂的瓦片, 它其實也沒那麽貴。
EM: Yeah. We're very confident that the cost of the roof plus the cost of electricity -- A solar glass roof will be less than the cost of a normal roof plus the cost of electricity. So in other words, this will be economically a no-brainer, we think it will look great, and it will last -- We thought about having the warranty be infinity, but then people thought, well, that might sound like were just talking rubbish, but actually this is toughened glass. Well after the house has collapsed and there's nothing there, the glass tiles will still be there.
馬:是的。 我們對屋頂的成本 加電費很有信心── 陽光玻璃屋頂將比 普通屋頂的造價加上電費便宜。 也就是說, 它的經濟實惠將毫無疑問。 我們覺得它看起來會很棒, 而且會持續── 我們想過要終身保固, 但有人會覺得 聼起來像是胡說八道。 但實際上它是強化玻璃, 就算房子崩塌也完好無損, 房子沒了, 但玻璃瓦還會在。
(Applause)
(掌聲)
CA: I mean, this is cool. So you're rolling this out in a couple week's time, I think, with four different roofing types.
安:我的天,太酷了。 你幾周後就要推出了, 四款不同的屋頂型號供選擇。
EM: Yeah, we're starting off with two, two initially, and the second two will be introduced early next year.
馬:是的,我們一開始只推出兩款, 另外兩款會在明年初推出。
CA: And what's the scale of ambition here? How many houses do you believe could end up having this type of roofing?
安:這是什麼樣的雄心規模呢? 你覺得這樣的屋頂會裝設多少?
EM: I think eventually almost all houses will have a solar roof. The thing is to consider the time scale here to be probably on the order of 40 or 50 years. So on average, a roof is replaced every 20 to 25 years. But you don't start replacing all roofs immediately. But eventually, if you say were to fast-forward to say 15 years from now, it will be unusual to have a roof that does not have solar.
馬:我估計最終── 幾乎所有的房子 最終都會有太陽能屋頂。 如果算上時間, 可能估計要花上 40 到 50 年。 通常每 20-25 年要更換屋頂, 但不可能立刻把屋頂全數換掉, 但如果將時間快轉到 從現在算起的 15 年後, 不具備太陽能的屋頂將會很不尋常。
CA: Is there a mental model thing that people don't get here that because of the shift in the cost, the economics of solar power, most houses actually have enough sunlight on their roof pretty much to power all of their needs. If you could capture the power, it could pretty much power all their needs. You could go off-grid, kind of.
安:是否有人們不這麼做的心理模式, 由於換屋頂的高造價 和太陽能的效益? 實際上大部分屋頂的陽光充足, 足以供應日常所需的電力; 假使這些電力能被儲存起來, 那麼供電會綽綽有餘, 可能無需併入電網,對吧?
EM: It depends on where you are and what the house size is relative to the roof area, but it's a fair statement to say that most houses in the US have enough roof area to power all the needs of the house.
馬:這還得看你住在哪裡, 住家相對於屋頂的規模大小。 但可以說, 大多數美國房子的屋頂面積 足以供應該房子日常所需的能耗。
CA: So the key to the economics of the cars, the Semi, of these houses is the falling price of lithium-ion batteries, which you've made a huge bet on as Tesla. In many ways, that's almost the core competency. And you've decided that to really, like, own that competency, you just have to build the world's largest manufacturing plant to double the world's supply of lithium-ion batteries, with this guy. What is this?
安:所以一切成本的關鍵點, 對於汽車、半掛、還有這些房子而言, 在於鋰電池價格的回落。 所以你在特斯拉上押了大注。 在很多方面,這幾乎是核心競爭力。 於是你決定 要擁有這核心能力, 你非得建世界上最大的電池工廠, 使世界鋰離子電池的供應倍增, 靠這個。這是啥?
EM: Yeah, so that's the Gigafactory, progress so far on the Gigafactory. Eventually, you can sort of roughly see that there's sort of a diamond shape overall, and when it's fully done, it'll look like a giant diamond, or that's the idea behind it, and it's aligned on true north. It's a small detail.
馬:對,這就是 Gigafactory, 是 Gigafactory 目前為止的進展。 最終你能大致看到 它的整體外形有點像是個鑽石; 等全部完工,它就像是顆大鑽石, 那是背後的構想。 它正對正北, 是個小細節。
CA: And capable of producing, eventually, like a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries a year.
安:最終每年將能夠生産 一千億瓦特小時的電池。 (註:一億「度」)
EM: A hundred gigawatt hours. We think probably more, but yeah.
馬:一千億瓦特小時。 可能會更多,不過差不多。
CA: And they're actually being produced right now.
安:工廠現正產出電池,對吧?
EM: They're in production already. CA: You guys put out this video. I mean, is that speeded up?
馬:工廠正在產出電池。 安:來放一下這片子。 我想問:它是在速放嗎?
EM: That's the slowed down version.
馬:其實它是在慢播。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
CA: How fast does it actually go?
安:那到底有多快?
EM: Well, when it's running at full speed, you can't actually see the cells without a strobe light. It's just blur.
馬:全速運行時 如果沒有頻閃燈, 你實際上看不到這些電池。 會模糊了。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
CA: One of your core ideas, Elon, about what makes an exciting future is a future where we no longer feel guilty about energy. Help us picture this. How many Gigafactories, if you like, does it take to get us there?
安:你有一個核心想法 與讓人興奮的未來有關, 是我們不再因消耗能源 而感到愧疚的未來。 帶我們想像一下。 需要多少 Gigafactories 才能實現呢?
EM: It's about a hundred, roughly. It's not 10, it's not a thousand. Most likely a hundred.
馬:粗略來説,幾百個吧。 超過十,但還不到上千。 最有可能就幾百個。
CA: See, I find this amazing. You can picture what it would take to move the world off this vast fossil fuel thing. It's like you're building one, it costs five billion dollars, or whatever, five to 10 billion dollars. Like, it's kind of cool that you can picture that project. And you're planning to do, at Tesla -- announce another two this year.
安:懂了,我覺得很棒。 你能描繪 解救這大量消耗化石燃料的世界 將會需要些什麼。 就像你建個工廠 要花 50 億美元, 或許下一個要 50 到 100 億之間。 你能描繪出來,很酷。 今年你打算宣佈 至少兩個特斯拉的新厰址。
EM: I think we'll announce locations for somewhere between two and four Gigafactories later this year. Yeah, probably four.
馬:今年稍後我們將會宣佈 2 到 4 個 Gigafactories 新址。 嗯,可能是 4 家。
CA: Whoa.
安:哇。
(Applause) No more teasing from you for here? Like -- where, continent? You can say no.
(掌聲) 不能再透露一些嗎? 像是──在哪裏?哪個洲? 你可以不回答。
EM: We need to address a global market.
馬:我們需要解決全球市場問題。
CA: OK.
安:好。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
This is cool. I think we should talk for -- Actually, global market. I'm going to ask you one question about politics, only one. I'm kind of sick of politics, but I do want to ask you this. You're on a body now giving advice to a guy --
這太酷了。 我想再聊── 竟然,全球市場。 我得問個政治話題,就一個。 我個人不喜歡政治,但我還是得問。 你現在是某人的委員會成員, 可以建議他──
EM: Who?
馬:誰?
CA: Who has said he doesn't really believe in climate change, and there's a lot of people out there who think you shouldn't be doing that. They'd like you to walk away from that. What would you say to them?
安:那個自稱不相信氣候變化的傢伙。 很多人認為你不應該涉入。 他們希望你脫身。 你怎麼回應呢?
EM: Well, I think that first of all, I'm just on two advisory councils where the format consists of going around the room and asking people's opinion on things, and so there's like a meeting every month or two. That's the sum total of my contribution. But I think to the degree that there are people in the room who are arguing in favor of doing something about climate change, or social issues, I've used the meetings I've had thus far to argue in favor of immigration and in favor of climate change.
馬:首先,我覺得 我隸屬於兩個諮詢委員會, 既定的程序是環顧會議室 詢問大家對事物的看法, 每一、兩個月開一次會。 我也就做了這麽點事情。 某些程度上,會議室裡有些人 贊成為氣候變化做些事情, 或者為社會議題做些事。 目前我藉由參與的會議 發言支持移民和支持氣候變化。
(Applause)
(掌聲)
And if I hadn't done that, that wasn't on the agenda before. So maybe nothing will happen, but at least the words were said.
如果我沒有那樣做, 它們之前根本沒被列在議程裡。 可能什麽都不會發生, 但至少我把話說了。
CA: OK.
安:沒錯。
(Applause)
(掌聲)
So let's talk SpaceX and Mars. Last time you were here, you spoke about what seemed like a kind of incredibly ambitious dream to develop rockets that were actually reusable. And you've only gone and done it.
我們來聊聊 SpaceX 和移民火星。 上次你在這裡 講了外人看來 極不可思議的雄心計劃, 要開發可回收的火箭。 然後你就去做,還做成了。
EM: Finally. It took a long time.
馬:是的,花了不少時間。
CA: Talk us through this. What are we looking at here?
安:帶我們看看,現在看到的是什麽?
EM: So this is one of our rocket boosters coming back from very high and fast in space. So just delivered the upper stage at high velocity. I think this might have been at sort of Mach 7 or so, delivery of the upper stage.
馬:這是個火箭推進器, 超快速從超高的外太空返回地面。 剛剛把火箭前面那一節送到外太空, 速度超快。 我估計七倍音速左右。 送出前一節。
(Applause)
(掌聲)
CA: So that was a sped-up --
安:所以這是加速版。
EM: That was the slowed down version.
馬:它是減速慢播版。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
CA: I thought that was the sped-up version. But I mean, that's amazing, and several of these failed before you finally figured out how to do it, but now you've done this, what, five or six times?
安:我還以為是加速版, 那真的很棒。 失敗了幾次之後 你終於知道怎麽做了。 至今你成功著陸幾次?五或六次?
EM: We're at eight or nine.
馬:我想是八或九次。
CA: And for the first time, you've actually reflown one of the rockets that landed.
安:你重飛之前著陸過的火箭 真的是創舉。
EM: Yeah, so we landed the rocket booster and then prepped it for flight again and flew it again, so it's the first reflight of an orbital booster where that reflight is relevant. So it's important to appreciate that reusability is only relevant if it is rapid and complete. So like an aircraft or a car, the reusability is rapid and complete. You do not send your aircraft to Boeing in-between flights.
馬:是的,我們降落火箭推進器, 準備好再次升空,又飛了一次。 這是首次火箭助推器再飛。 再飛的意義重大, 重要的是要認識到 可重用性只有在 快速和完整的情況下才算數。 像飛機和汽車的可重用性 快速而完整。 無須在航班與航班之間 把飛機送回波音工廠。
CA: Right. So this is allowing you to dream of this really ambitious idea of sending many, many, many people to Mars in, what, 10 or 20 years time, I guess.
安:是啊,這讓你夢想著 真正雄心勃勃的想法, 要把好多好多人送往火星…… 多久?我猜是 10 到 20 年後。
EM: Yeah.
馬:是的。
CA: And you've designed this outrageous rocket to do it. Help us understand the scale of this thing.
安:於是你設計了 這不尋常的火箭來實現。 帶我們了解它的規模。
EM: Well, visually you can see that's a person. Yeah, and that's the vehicle.
馬:好。你看到一個人, 而那是火箭載具。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
CA: So if that was a skyscraper, that's like, did I read that, a 40-story skyscraper?
安:如果那是座摩天大樓, 就像是 40 層的大樓,對嗎?
EM: Probably a little more, yeah. The thrust level of this is really -- This configuration is about four times the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket.
馬:有可能再多幾層。 火箭推力可真是── 推力約是農神 5 號運載火箭的四倍。
CA: Four times the thrust of the biggest rocket humanity ever created before.
安:之前人類造過的 最大火箭的四倍?
EM: Yeah. Yeah.
馬:沒錯。
CA: As one does. EM: Yeah.
安:就那樣。 馬:沒錯。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
In units of 747, a 747 is only about a quarter of a million pounds of thrust, so for every 10 million pounds of thrust, there's 40 747s. So this would be the thrust equivalent of 120 747s, with all engines blazing.
馬:跟 747 飛機比, 一架 747 僅有 25 萬磅助推力, 每一千萬磅的助推力 需要 40 架 747。 它的推力應該相當於 120 架的 747,
CA: And so even with a machine designed to escape Earth's gravity, I think you told me last time this thing could actually take a fully loaded 747, people, cargo, everything, into orbit.
如果引擎全開的話。 安:即使設計來脫離 地球重力的這台機器── 記得你上次跟我說過, 它還能裝下滿載的 747, 人員、物資,每樣東西, 送上軌道。
EM: Exactly. This can take a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel, maximum passengers, maximum cargo on the 747 -- this can take it as cargo.
馬:沒錯。它能承載 一架加滿油的 747 飛機, 滿員、滿貨的 747── 它能把 747 當成貨物。
CA: So based on this, you presented recently this Interplanetary Transport System which is visualized this way. This is a scene you picture in, what, 30 years time? 20 years time? People walking into this rocket.
安:基於此, 最近你介紹了星際運輸系統 看起來這樣。 你描繪的是什麼時候的場景? 30 年後? 20 年後? 人們進入火箭。
EM: I'm hopeful it's sort of an eight- to 10-year time frame. Aspirationally, that's our target. Our internal targets are more aggressive, but I think --
馬:我希望是 8 到 10 年後。 我滿心期望,這是我們的目標。 我們內部的目標更積極, 不過我覺得……
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
CA: OK.
安:好吧。
EM: While vehicle seems quite large and is large by comparison with other rockets, I think the future spacecraft will make this look like a rowboat. The future spaceships will be truly enormous.
馬:這飛行器看起來好像很大, 跟其他火箭比起來,是大了點。 但我覺得跟未來的航空器比起來, 它就像是艘小艇。 未來的太空船會是巨無霸。
CA: Why, Elon? Why do we need to build a city on Mars with a million people on it in your lifetime, which I think is kind of what you've said you'd love to do?
安:為什麼?伊隆。 為什麽我們得在火星上造城? 為什麼在你的有生之年 要送上百萬人去火星? 我彷彿記得你說過那是你愛做的事。
EM: I think it's important to have a future that is inspiring and appealing. I just think there have to be reasons that you get up in the morning and you want to live. Like, why do you want to live? What's the point? What inspires you? What do you love about the future? And if we're not out there, if the future does not include being out there among the stars and being a multiplanet species, I find that it's incredibly depressing if that's not the future that we're going to have.
馬:我覺得這很重要: 有個令人欣然嚮往、 鼓舞人心的未來。 人活著得有理由 讓你早上起床,想要活下去。 為什麽要活下去? 有什麼意思? 什麼激勵了你? 你愛未來的什麼? 如果我們不在外太空, 如果未來不包括身在星際間, 不身為多個星球的物種, 我會無比沮喪, 如果那不是我們的未來的話。
(Applause)
(掌聲)
CA: People want to position this as an either or, that there are so many desperate things happening on the planet now from climate to poverty to, you know, you pick your issue. And this feels like a distraction. You shouldn't be thinking about this. You should be solving what's here and now. And to be fair, you've done a fair old bit to actually do that with your work on sustainable energy. But why not just do that?
安:人們想定位為非此即彼, 畢竟地球上有那麼多危急之事, 從氣候問題到貧窮,選問題來解決。 這看起來像是分心, 你不該思考這, 而應該去解決眼前和當下的問題。 公平地說,你在 永續能源方面已做了些。 為什麽不專注於那個呢?
EM: I think there's -- I look at the future from the standpoint of probabilities. It's like a branching stream of probabilities, and there are actions that we can take that affect those probabilities or that accelerate one thing or slow down another thing. I may introduce something new to the probability stream. Sustainable energy will happen no matter what. If there was no Tesla, if Tesla never existed, it would have to happen out of necessity. It's tautological. If you don't have sustainable energy, it means you have unsustainable energy. Eventually you will run out, and the laws of economics will drive civilization towards sustainable energy, inevitably. The fundamental value of a company like Tesla is the degree to which it accelerates the advent of sustainable energy, faster than it would otherwise occur.
馬:我想這── 我從概率的角度來看待未來。 這就像概率流的分支, 我們採取的一些行動 會影響這些概率, 會加速一件或減緩另一件。 我可能給概率流加了新的東西。 不管怎樣,永續能源是會實現的。 如果沒有特斯拉, 如果特斯拉不存在, 它也必然發生。 它是反覆循環的。 假如你沒有永續能源, 也就是你的能源不永續, 你的能源終將消耗殆盡。 經濟的規律將驅動文明 走向永續能源。 這是必然。 像特斯拉這樣的公司的基本價值 就是加快永續能源的出現, 比原本的快。
So when I think, like, what is the fundamental good of a company like Tesla, I would say, hopefully, if it accelerated that by a decade, potentially more than a decade, that would be quite a good thing to occur. That's what I consider to be the fundamental aspirational good of Tesla.
每當我思考 像特斯拉這樣的公司的 基本價值是什麼時, 我會希望 如果它能加快十年,可能多於十年, 這將是極好的事情。 我認為這就是 特斯拉的基本理想抱負。
Then there's becoming a multiplanet species and space-faring civilization. This is not inevitable. It's very important to appreciate this is not inevitable. The sustainable energy future I think is largely inevitable, but being a space-faring civilization is definitely not inevitable. If you look at the progress in space, in 1969 you were able to send somebody to the moon. 1969. Then we had the Space Shuttle. The Space Shuttle could only take people to low Earth orbit. Then the Space Shuttle retired, and the United States could take no one to orbit. So that's the trend. The trend is like down to nothing. People are mistaken when they think that technology just automatically improves. It does not automatically improve. It only improves if a lot of people work very hard to make it better, and actually it will, I think, by itself degrade, actually. You look at great civilizations like Ancient Egypt, and they were able to make the pyramids, and they forgot how to do that. And then the Romans, they built these incredible aqueducts. They forgot how to do it.
至於成為多行星的物種 和有能力探索太空文明, 並不是必然的。 認知這不是必然的,相當重要。 我認為使用永續能源的未來 基本上是不可避免的, 但有能力探索太空的文明絕非必然。 回顧太空進展, 1969 年,我們能把人類送上月球。 是 1969 年啊。 後來有了太空梭, 太空梭只能把人送到近地軌道。 接著太空梭退了下來, 美國再也沒能送人上軌道。 那就是趨勢, 像是化為烏有的趨勢。 人們誤以為技術會自動提升。 但技術不會自動提升, 只有許多人戮力改善才使它變好, 而且我認為 事實上技術本身會退化。 我們來看看古埃及文明, 從前他們能建金字塔, 但忘了怎麽建。 還有古羅馬人造了 令人難以置信的水渠; 他們也不記得怎麽造。
CA: Elon, it almost seems, listening to you and looking at the different things you've done, that you've got this unique double motivation on everything that I find so interesting. One is this desire to work for humanity's long-term good. The other is the desire to do something exciting. And often it feels like you feel like you need the one to drive the other. With Tesla, you want to have sustainable energy, so you made these super sexy, exciting cars to do it. Solar energy, we need to get there, so we need to make these beautiful roofs. We haven't even spoken about your newest thing, which we don't have time to do, but you want to save humanity from bad AI, and so you're going to create this really cool brain-machine interface to give us all infinite memory and telepathy and so forth. And on Mars, it feels like what you're saying is, yeah, we need to save humanity and have a backup plan, but also we need to inspire humanity, and this is a way to inspire.
安:伊隆,聼你說起來,似乎…… 看著你所做的不同的事情, 你對這一切都有獨特的雙重動機, 我覺得很有意思。 一方面是為了全人類的長遠利益, 另一方面是渴望 做一些令人興奮的事情。 彷彿你需要一樣來驅動另一樣。 用特斯拉,因你要有永續能源, 所以造出這麽勁爆的車子 來實現你的目標。 而為要實現太陽能, 於是需要這些漂亮的屋頂。 我們還沒講到你最新的玩意, 由於時間不夠的關係。 但你想把人類從不好的 人工智慧中解救出來。 所以你打算造出超炫酷的腦機介面 讓人類擁有無限的記憶、 心靈感應等等。 還有移民火星,就像你所說的, 是的,我們要拯救人類。 得有個備選計劃。 當然還要激勵人性, 這也算是一種激勵的方式。
EM: I think the value of beauty and inspiration is very much underrated, no question. But I want to be clear. I'm not trying to be anyone's savior. That is not the -- I'm just trying to think about the future and not be sad.
馬:我想美和靈感的價值 被嚴重低估了, 毫無疑問。 但我想釐清一點: 我可不想做任何人的救星。 那不是── 我只想展望未來 而不傷感。
(Applause)
(掌聲)
CA: Beautiful statement. I think everyone here would agree that it is not -- None of this is going to happen inevitably. The fact that in your mind, you dream this stuff, you dream stuff that no one else would dare dream, or no one else would be capable of dreaming at the level of complexity that you do. The fact that you do that, Elon Musk, is a really remarkable thing. Thank you for helping us all to dream a bit bigger.
安:說的真好。 我想在場所有人都同意 那不── 這些都不是必然會發生的。 事實上,在你的心目中的夢想, 夢想著別人想都不敢想的夢想, 或者說沒人有能力想到的夢想, 達到如你這般複雜的程度。 伊隆 • 馬斯克, 你那麼做實在了不起。 感謝你幫助我們所有人夢想得更大。
EM: But you'll tell me if it ever starts getting genuinely insane, right?
馬:如果哪天我真要瘋了, 你會告訴我,對吧?
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
CA: Thank you, Elon Musk. That was really, really fantastic. That was really fantastic.
安:謝謝伊隆 • 馬斯克,太棒了。 這真是太棒了。
(Applause)
(掌聲)