Chris Anderson: Elon, hey, welcome back to TED. It's great to have you here.
Kris Anderson: Ilone, hej, dobro došao opet na TED. Lepo je što si ovde.
Elon Musk: Thanks for having me.
Ilon Mask: Hvala na pozivu.
CA: So, in the next half hour or so, we're going to spend some time exploring your vision for what an exciting future might look like, which I guess makes the first question a little ironic: Why are you boring?
KA: Dakle, u narednih oko pola sata, provešćemo neko vreme istražujući tvoju viziju toga koliko bi budućnost mogla da izgleda uzbudljivo, zbog čega je, valjda, prvo pitanje malčice ironično: zašto zabušavaš?
EM: Yeah. I ask myself that frequently. We're trying to dig a hole under LA, and this is to create the beginning of what will hopefully be a 3D network of tunnels to alleviate congestion. So right now, one of the most soul-destroying things is traffic. It affects people in every part of the world. It takes away so much of your life. It's horrible. It's particularly horrible in LA.
IM: Da. To često pitam samog sebe. Pokušavamo da iskopamo rupu ispod Los Anđelesa s ciljem da stvorimo početak nečega što će, nadamo se, biti 3D mreža tunela kako bi se olakšalo zakrčenje. Dakle, trenutno je saobraćaj nešto najiritantnije. Pogađa ljude u svim delovima sveta. Toliko vam oduzima od života. Užasno je. Naročito je užasno u Los Anđelesu.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
CA: I think you've brought with you the first visualization that's been shown of this. Can I show this?
KA: Mislim da si sa sobom poneo prvu vizualizaciju ovoga koja je ikad prikazana. Mogu li to da pokažem?
EM: Yeah, absolutely. So this is the first time -- Just to show what we're talking about. So a couple of key things that are important in having a 3D tunnel network. First of all, you have to be able to integrate the entrance and exit of the tunnel seamlessly into the fabric of the city. So by having an elevator, sort of a car skate, that's on an elevator, you can integrate the entrance and exits to the tunnel network just by using two parking spaces. And then the car gets on a skate. There's no speed limit here, so we're designing this to be able to operate at 200 kilometers an hour.
IM: Da, apsolutno. Dakle, ovo je prvi put - Prosto da pokažem o čemu pričamo. Dakle, nekoliko ključnih stvari koje su važne kad imate 3D mrežu tunela. Prvo - morate da budete u stanju da integrišete ulaz i izlaz iz tunela besprekorno sa gradskim tkanjem. Uz lift, neku vrstu nosača za automobile, koji je na liftu, možete da integrišete ulaze i izlaze u i iz mreže tunela, upotrebom svega dva parking mesta. Potom automobil stigne na nosač. Tu brzina nije ograničena, mi ga dizajniramo da može da ide 200 kilometara na sat.
CA: How much?
KA: Koliko?
EM: 200 kilometers an hour, or about 130 miles per hour. So you should be able to get from, say, Westwood to LAX in six minutes -- five, six minutes.
IM: 200 kilometara na sat ili oko 130 milja na sat. Pa, trebalo bi da možete da stignete, recimo, od Vestvuda do LAX-a za šest minuta - pet, šest minuta.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)
CA: So possibly, initially done, it's like on a sort of toll road-type basis.
KA: Moguće da će provbitna verzija da bude zasnovana na nekom vidu putarine.
EM: Yeah.
IM: Da.
CA: Which, I guess, alleviates some traffic from the surface streets as well.
KA: Što, valjda, ublažava nešto saobraćaja sa ulica na površini, takođe.
EM: So, I don't know if people noticed it in the video, but there's no real limit to how many levels of tunnel you can have. You can go much further deep than you can go up. The deepest mines are much deeper than the tallest buildings are tall, so you can alleviate any arbitrary level of urban congestion with a 3D tunnel network. This is a very important point. So a key rebuttal to the tunnels is that if you add one layer of tunnels, that will simply alleviate congestion, it will get used up, and then you'll be back where you started, back with congestion. But you can go to any arbitrary number of tunnels, any number of levels.
IM: Dakle, ne znam da li su ljudi primetili na snimku, ali ne postoji stvarno ograničenje koliko nivoa tunela možete da imate. Možete ići daleko više u dubinu nego što možete u visinu. Najdublji rudnici su daleko dublji nego što su najviše zgrade visoke, te možete da olakšate bilo koji proizvoljni stepen gradskog zakrčenja uz 3D mrežu tunela. Ovo je veoma važno. Ključna kritika na račun tunela je da ako dodate jedan sloj tunela, to bi prosto olakšalo gužve, popunilo bi se i ponovo biste bili na početku sa gužvom. Ali mogli biste da imate bezbroj tunela, bezbroj nivoa.
CA: But people -- seen traditionally, it's incredibly expensive to dig, and that would block this idea.
KA: Ali ljudi - gledano tradicionalno, kopanje je izuzetno skupo, i to bi zaustavilo ovu ideju.
EM: Yeah. Well, they're right. To give you an example, the LA subway extension, which is -- I think it's a two-and-a-half mile extension that was just completed for two billion dollars. So it's roughly a billion dollars a mile to do the subway extension in LA. And this is not the highest utility subway in the world. So yeah, it's quite difficult to dig tunnels normally. I think we need to have at least a tenfold improvement in the cost per mile of tunneling.
IM: Da. Pa, u pravu su. Da vam dam jedan primer, podzemna produžnica u Los Anđelesu, koja je - mislim da je duga četiri kilometra, upravo je završena za dve milijarde dolara. Otprilike se radi o milijardi dolara po 1,6 km da se napravi podzemna u LA. A ovo nije najkorisnija podzemna na svetu. Pa, da, obično je prilično teško kopati tunele. Mislim da nam je potreban bar desetostruki napredak u ceni po kilometru tunela.
CA: And how could you achieve that?
KA: A kako možete to da postignete?
EM: Actually, if you just do two things, you can get to approximately an order of magnitude improvement, and I think you can go beyond that. So the first thing to do is to cut the tunnel diameter by a factor of two or more. So a single road lane tunnel according to regulations has to be 26 feet, maybe 28 feet in diameter to allow for crashes and emergency vehicles and sufficient ventilation for combustion engine cars. But if you shrink that diameter to what we're attempting, which is 12 feet, which is plenty to get an electric skate through, you drop the diameter by a factor of two and the cross-sectional area by a factor of four, and the tunneling cost scales with the cross-sectional area. So that's roughly a half-order of magnitude improvement right there. Then tunneling machines currently tunnel for half the time, then they stop, and then the rest of the time is putting in reinforcements for the tunnel wall. So if you design the machine instead to do continuous tunneling and reinforcing, that will give you a factor of two improvement. Combine that and that's a factor of eight. Also these machines are far from being at their power or thermal limits, so you can jack up the power to the machine substantially. I think you can get at least a factor of two, maybe a factor of four or five improvement on top of that. So I think there's a fairly straightforward series of steps to get somewhere in excess of an order of magnitude improvement in the cost per mile, and our target actually is -- we've got a pet snail called Gary, this is from Gary the snail from "South Park," I mean, sorry, "SpongeBob SquarePants."
IM: Zapravo, ako uradite samo dve stvari, dostigli biste otprilike napredak za red velične, a mislim da možete više od toga. Pa, prvo što treba da uradite je da skratite prečnik tunela za faktor od dva ili više. Dakle, tunel sa jednom trakom, prema propisima, mora da ima prečnik od 8, možda 8,5 metara kako bi ostao prostor u slučaju nesreće i za vozila hitne pomoći, kao i dovoljno ventilacije za vozila sa motorima sa unutrašnjim sagorevanjem. Međutim, ako suzite taj prečnik na ono na šta mi ciljamo, a to je 3,7 metara, što je sasvim dovoljno da električni nosač prođe, umanjili ste prečnik za faktor od dva a prostor poprečnog preseka za faktor od četiri, a cena kopanja tunela je srazmerna poprečnom preseku. Te je to otprilike unapređenje za pola reda veličine. Trenutno mašine kopaju tunele polovinu vremena, potom se zaustavljaju, a preostalo vreme se troši na ojačavanje zidova tunela. Pa ako umesto toga dizajnirate mašinu da obavlja konstantno kopanje i ojačavanje, time ćete postići napredak za faktor od dva. Saberite to sve i imaćete faktor od osam. Takođe, ove mašine nisu ni blizu granice svoijih termalnih moći, te možete bitno uvećati snagu mašina. Mislim da možete postići bar faktor od dva, možda faktor od četiri ili pet povrh toga. Te smatram da imamo prilično direktan niz koraka da stignemo do napretka od više od jednog reda veličine u ceni po kilometru, a zapravo naš cilj je - imamo puža ljubimca, po imenu Gari, nazvan je po pužu Gariju iz "Saut Parka", mislim, pardon, "Sunđer Boba Kockalonea".
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
So Gary is capable of -- currently he's capable of going 14 times faster than a tunnel-boring machine.
Dakle, Gari je u stanju - trenutno može da ide 14 puta brže od mašine za kopanje tunela.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
CA: You want to beat Gary.
KA: Želite da pobedite Garija.
EM: We want to beat Gary.
IM: Želimo da pobedimo Garija.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
He's not a patient little fellow, and that will be victory. Victory is beating the snail.
On nije strpljiv mališa, a to bi bio uspeh. Uspeh je pobeda nad pužem.
CA: But a lot of people imagining, dreaming about future cities, they imagine that actually the solution is flying cars, drones, etc. You go aboveground. Why isn't that a better solution? You save all that tunneling cost.
KA: Ali mnogi ljudi kad zamišljaju, sanjaju gradove budućnosti, zamišljaju da je zapravo rešenje u letećim automobilima, dronovima itd. Ide se iznad zemlje. Zašto to nije bolje rešenje? Uštedite sve te troškove kopanja?
EM: Right. I'm in favor of flying things. Obviously, I do rockets, so I like things that fly. This is not some inherent bias against flying things, but there is a challenge with flying cars in that they'll be quite noisy, the wind force generated will be very high. Let's just say that if something's flying over your head, a whole bunch of flying cars going all over the place, that is not an anxiety-reducing situation.
IM: Tačno. Ja sam za leteće stvari. Očigledno, pravim rakete, te mi se sviđaju stvari koje lete. Ne radi se o urođenoj predrasudi protiv letećih stvari, ali imamo izazov kod letećih auta zbog toga što će biti prilično bučna, snaga vetra koju će da stvaraju će da bude veoma velika. Recimo, ako vam nešto leti iznad glave, čitava gomila letećih auta koja ide tamo i ovamo, ne radi se o situaciji koja umanjuje anksioznost.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
You don't think to yourself, "Well, I feel better about today." You're thinking, "Did they service their hubcap, or is it going to come off and guillotine me?" Things like that.
Ne razmišljate u sebi: "Pa, danas se osećam bolje." Razmišljate: "Da li su servisirali radkapnu ili će da spadne i giljotinira me?" Slične stvari.
CA: So you've got this vision of future cities with these rich, 3D networks of tunnels underneath. Is there a tie-in here with Hyperloop? Could you apply these tunnels to use for this Hyperloop idea you released a few years ago.
KA: Dakle, tvoja vizija gradova budućnosti uključuje ovu bogatu, 3D mrežu tunela ispod njih. Da li je ovo u vezi sa Hiperlupom? Možeš li da primeniš ove tunele kod ideje sa Hiperlupom koju si objavio pre nekoliko godina?
EM: Yeah, so we've been sort of puttering around with the Hyperloop stuff for a while. We built a Hyperloop test track adjacent to SpaceX, just for a student competition, to encourage innovative ideas in transport. And it actually ends up being the biggest vacuum chamber in the world after the Large Hadron Collider, by volume. So it was quite fun to do that, but it was kind of a hobby thing, and then we think we might -- so we've built a little pusher car to push the student pods, but we're going to try seeing how fast we can make the pusher go if it's not pushing something. So we're cautiously optimistic we'll be able to be faster than the world's fastest bullet train even in a .8-mile stretch.
IM: Da, nekako smo se petljali neko vreme oko Hiperlupa. Sagradili smo test stazu za Hiperlup blizu Spejs iksa, samo za takmičenje za studente, kako bismo ohrabrili inovativne ideje u saobraćaju. I zapravo je na kraju to ispalo najveća vakuumska komora na svetu posle velikog hadronskog sudarivača, prema zapremini. Te je bilo veoma zabavno baviti se time, ali to je bilo nekako poput dokolice, a onda smo pomislili da bismo mogli - pa smo napravili malena gurajuća auta da guraju studentske šasije, ali ćemo pokušati da proverimo koliko brzi gurači mogu da budu, kad ne guraju nešto. Pa smo oprezno optimistični, bićemo brži od najbržeg superbrzog voza u svetu čak i u rasponu od 1,3 kilometra.
CA: Whoa. Good brakes.
KA: Opa. Odlične kočnice.
EM: Yeah, I mean, it's -- yeah. It's either going to smash into tiny pieces or go quite fast.
IM: Da, mislim, to je - da. Ili će se razbiti u paramparčad ili će da ide prilično brzo.
CA: But you can picture, then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel running quite long distances.
KA: Ali onda možeš da zamisliš Hiperlup u tunelu kako se proteže velikim udaljenostima.
EM: Exactly. And looking at tunneling technology, it turns out that in order to make a tunnel, you have to -- In order to seal against the water table, you've got to typically design a tunnel wall to be good to about five or six atmospheres. So to go to vacuum is only one atmosphere, or near-vacuum. So actually, it sort of turns out that automatically, if you build a tunnel that is good enough to resist the water table, it is automatically capable of holding vacuum.
IM: Upravo. Posmatrajući tehnologiju kopanja tunela, ispada da, kako biste napravili tunel, morate - Kako biste blokirali podzemne vode, obično morate da dizajnirate zid tunela da izdrži pritisak od oko pet ili šest atmosfera. Pa, prelazak na vakuum je tek pritisak od jedne atmosfere, ili blizu vakuuma. Te, zapravo, nekako se ispostavlja da automatski, ako sagradite tunel koji je dovoljno jak da odoleva podzemnim vodama, automatski je u stanju da izdrži vakuum.
CA: Huh.
KA: Ha.
EM: So, yeah.
IM: Dakle, da.
CA: And so you could actually picture, what kind of length tunnel is in Elon's future to running Hyperloop?
KA: Dakle, ti možeš da zapravo zamisliš koje je dužine tunel iz Ilonove budućnosti kojim saobraća Hiperlup?
EM: I think there's no real length limit. You could dig as much as you want. I think if you were to do something like a DC-to-New York Hyperloop, I think you'd probably want to go underground the entire way because it's a high-density area. You're going under a lot of buildings and houses, and if you go deep enough, you cannot detect the tunnel. Sometimes people think, well, it's going to be pretty annoying to have a tunnel dug under my house. Like, if that tunnel is dug more than about three or four tunnel diameters beneath your house, you will not be able to detect it being dug at all. In fact, if you're able to detect the tunnel being dug, whatever device you are using, you can get a lot of money for that device from the Israeli military, who is trying to detect tunnels from Hamas, and from the US Customs and Border patrol that try and detect drug tunnels. So the reality is that earth is incredibly good at absorbing vibrations, and once the tunnel depth is below a certain level, it is undetectable. Maybe if you have a very sensitive seismic instrument, you might be able to detect it.
IM: Mislim da ne postoji stvarno ograničenje dužine. Možete da kopate koliko želite. Mislim da ako biste se namerili na nešto kao Hiperlup od Vašingtona do Njujorka, mislim da biste verovatno želeli da idete pod zemljom celim putem jer se radi o gusto naseljenoj oblasti. Idete ispod mnogo zgrada i kuća, a ako idete dovoljno duboko, ne možete da detektujete tunel. Ponekad ljudi misle, pa, biće prilično iritantno, ako iskopaju tunel ispod moje kuće. Ako je taj tunel iskopan više od tri ili četiri prečnika tunela ispod vaše kuće, nećete biti u stanju da detektujete da se uopšte kopa. Zapravo, ako ste u stanju da detektujete kopanje tunela, kakvu god spravu koristili, izraelska vojska će da vam da gomilu novca za tu spravu, jer pokušavaju da detektuju Hamasove tunele, kao i od carinsko-graničnih jedinica SAD-a koje pokušavaju da otkriju tunele droge. Dakle, u stvarnosti zemlja je neverovatno dobra u apsorbovanju vibracija, a čim je tunel na dubini ispod određenog nivoa, nemoguće ga je detektovati. Možda kad biste imali veoma osetljiv seizmički instrument, mogli biste da ga detektujete.
CA: So you've started a new company to do this called The Boring Company. Very nice. Very funny.
KA: Dakle, osnovao si novu firmu za to, zove se Boring kompani. Fino. Veoma smešno.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
EM: What's funny about that?
IM: Šta je u tome smešno?
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
CA: How much of your time is this?
KA: Koliko ti vremena oduzima?
EM: It's maybe ... two or three percent.
IM: Otprilike... dva ili tri procenta.
CA: You've called it a hobby. This is what an Elon Musk hobby looks like.
KA: Kupio si hobi. Ovako izgleda hobi za Ilona Maska.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
EM: I mean, it really is, like -- This is basically interns and people doing it part time. We bought some second-hand machinery. It's kind of puttering along, but it's making good progress, so --
IM: Mislim, ziasta jeste, kao - U suštini radi se o pripravnicima i ljudima koji to rade honorarno. Kupili smo polovnu mehanizaciju. Nekako se usputno petljamo time, ali dobro napreduje, stoga -
CA: So an even bigger part of your time is being spent on electrifying cars and transport through Tesla. Is one of the motivations for the tunneling project the realization that actually, in a world where cars are electric and where they're self-driving, there may end up being more cars on the roads on any given hour than there are now?
KA: Dakle, nešto veći deo tvog vremena oduzima elektrifikacija automobila i saobraćaja putem Tesle. Da li je jedna od motivacija za projekat tunela razumevanje da zapravo, u svetu u kom su automobili električni i samoupravljajući, možda će doći do još većeg broja automobila na putevima u bilo kom momentu nego što ih trenutno ima?
EM: Yeah, exactly. A lot of people think that when you make cars autonomous, they'll be able to go faster and that will alleviate congestion. And to some degree that will be true, but once you have shared autonomy where it's much cheaper to go by car and you can go point to point, the affordability of going in a car will be better than that of a bus. Like, it will cost less than a bus ticket. So the amount of driving that will occur will be much greater with shared autonomy, and actually traffic will get far worse.
IM: Da, upravo. Mnogi ljudi misle da ako napravimo autonomne automobile, da će da idu brže i da će to olakšati gužve. I do nekog stepena to će da bude tako, ali čim dobijete zajednička autonomna auta gde je mnogo jeftinije ići autom i možete ići od tačke do tačke, pristupačnost putovanja autom će da bude veća od putovanja autobusom. Koštaće manje od karte za autobus. Dakle, količina vožnje koja će da se desi će da bude mnogo veća od zajedničkog auta i zapravo će saobraćaj da bude još gori.
CA: You started Tesla with the goal of persuading the world that electrification was the future of cars, and a few years ago, people were laughing at you. Now, not so much.
KA: Osnovao si Teslu u cilju ubeđivanja sveta da je elektrifikacija budućnost automobila, a pre nekoliko godina, ljudi su ti se smejali. Sad, baš i ne.
EM: OK.
IK: U redu.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
I don't know. I don't know.
Ne znam. Ne znam.
CA: But isn't it true that pretty much every auto manufacturer has announced serious electrification plans for the short- to medium-term future?
KA: Ali zar nije tačno da su skoro svi proizvođači automobila najavili ozbiljne planove elektrifikacije u kratkoročnoj do srednjeročnoj budućnosti?
EM: Yeah. Yeah. I think almost every automaker has some electric vehicle program. They vary in seriousness. Some are very serious about transitioning entirely to electric, and some are just dabbling in it. And some, amazingly, are still pursuing fuel cells, but I think that won't last much longer.
IM: Da. Da. Mislim da skoro svi proizvođači automobila imaju neki program za električna vozila. Variraju u ozbiljnosti. Neki su veoma ozbiljni povodom potpunog prelaska na struju, a neki se samo površno time bave. A neki su, za čudo, i dalje na tragu gorivnih ćelija, ali mislim da to neće trajati dugo.
CA: But isn't there a sense, though, Elon, where you can now just declare victory and say, you know, "We did it." Let the world electrify, and you go on and focus on other stuff?
KA: Ali zar nemaš osećaj, pak, Ilone, da možeš prosto proglasiti pobedu i reći, znaš: "Uspeli smo." Neka svet pređe na struju, a ti ćeš da se usredsrediš na druge stvari?
EM: Yeah. I intend to stay with Tesla as far into the future as I can imagine, and there are a lot of exciting things that we have coming. Obviously the Model 3 is coming soon. We'll be unveiling the Tesla Semi truck.
IM: Da. Nameravam da se zadržim na Tesli dokle god mogu da zamislim u budućnosti, i ima tu mnogo uzbudljivih stvari koje stižu. Očito, uskoro izlazi model 3. Otkrićemo Teslin polukamion.
CA: OK, we're going to come to this. So Model 3, it's supposed to be coming in July-ish.
KA: U redu. Stići ćemo do toga. Dakle, model 3 bi trebalo da izađe oko jula.
EM: Yeah, it's looking quite good for starting production in July.
IM: Da, dobri su izgledi da će proizvodnja krenuti u julu.
CA: Wow. One of the things that people are so excited about is the fact that it's got autopilot. And you put out this video a while back showing what that technology would look like.
KA: Opa. Jedna od stvari oko koje su ljudi veoma uzbuđeni je to da ima autopilota. A ti si postavio snimak pre nekog vremena pokazujući kako će ta tehnologija da izgleda.
EM: Yeah.
IM: Da.
CA: There's obviously autopilot in Model S right now. What are we seeing here?
Očito imamo autopilota trenutno u modelu S. KA: Šta vidimo ovde?
EM: Yeah, so this is using only cameras and GPS. So there's no LIDAR or radar being used here. This is just using passive optical, which is essentially what a person uses. The whole road system is meant to be navigated with passive optical, or cameras, and so once you solve cameras or vision, then autonomy is solved. If you don't solve vision, it's not solved. So that's why our focus is so heavily on having a vision neural net that's very effective for road conditions.
IM: Da, ovde koristimo samo kamere i GPS. Ovde se ne koristi LIDAR, niti radar. Samo koristimo pasivnu optiku, a to u suštini ljudi koriste. Trebalo bi čitavim sistemom puteva da upravljamo pasivnom optikom ili kamerama, te čim rešite problem kamera ili vida, rešili ste samoupravljanje. Ako ne rešite problem vida, nemate rešenje. Stoga smo se toliko usredsredili na nabavku vizuelne neuronske mreže koja je veoma efikasna na putnim uslovima.
CA: Right. Many other people are going the LIDAR route. You want cameras plus radar is most of it.
KA: Tačno. Mnogi drugi se odlučuju za LIDAR. Ti želiš kamere plus radar i to je sve.
EM: You can absolutely be superhuman with just cameras. Like, you can probably do it ten times better than humans would, just cameras.
IM: Možeš u potpunosti da budeš superčovek samo sa kamerama. Verovatno možeš da budeš deset puta bolji od ljudi, samo s kamerama.
CA: So the new cars being sold right now have eight cameras in them. They can't yet do what that showed. When will they be able to?
KA: Dakle, novi automobili koje trenutno prodaju imaju u sebi osam kamera. Još uvek ne mogu da postignu to što je ovde prikazano. Kada će moći to da urade?
EM: I think we're still on track for being able to go cross-country from LA to New York by the end of the year, fully autonomous.
IM: Mislim da smo i dalje na dobrom putu da uspemo preći državu od LA do Njujorka do kraja godine, u potpunosti samoupravljajući.
CA: OK, so by the end of the year, you're saying, someone's going to sit in a Tesla without touching the steering wheel, tap in "New York," off it goes.
KA: U redu, dakle, do kraja godine, kažeš, neko će sesti u Teslu, bez dodirivanja volana, ukucaće "Njujork" i idemo.
EM: Yeah.
IM: Da.
CA: Won't ever have to touch the wheel -- by the end of 2017.
KA: Ni u jednom trenutku neće morati da dotakne volan - do kraja 2017.
EM: Yeah. Essentially, November or December of this year, we should be able to go all the way from a parking lot in California to a parking lot in New York, no controls touched at any point during the entire journey.
IM: Da. U suštini, u novembru ili decembru ove godine, trebalo bi da uspemo da pređemo ceo put od parkinga u Kaliforniji do parkinga u Njujorku, bez dodirivanja upravljača tokom čitavog putovanja.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)
CA: Amazing. But part of that is possible because you've already got a fleet of Teslas driving all these roads. You're accumulating a huge amount of data of that national road system.
KA: Neverovatno. Ali to je delimično moguće jer ti već imaš Teslinu flotu koja se vozi svim tim putevima. Sakupljaš ogromnu količinu podataka o nacionalnom sistemu puteva.
EM: Yes, but the thing that will be interesting is that I'm actually fairly confident it will be able to do that route even if you change the route dynamically. So, it's fairly easy -- If you say I'm going to be really good at one specific route, that's one thing, but it should be able to go, really be very good, certainly once you enter a highway, to go anywhere on the highway system in a given country. So it's not sort of limited to LA to New York. We could change it and make it Seattle-Florida, that day, in real time. So you were going from LA to New York. Now go from LA to Toronto.
IM: Da, ali biće interesantno to što sam ja prilično ubeđen da će biti u stanju da pređe tu rutu čak iako dinamički promenite rutu. Dakle, prilično je lako - ako kažete da ću da uspem na jednoj specifičnoj ruti, to je jedna stvar, ali bi trebalo da može da ide, da bude veoma dobro, zasigurno čim kročite na auto-put, da može da ide bilo gde sistemom auto-puta u datoj državi. Dakle, nije ograničeno na od LA do Njujorka. Mogli bismo ga promeniti da ide Sijetl-Florida, tog dana u realnom vremenu. Dakle, išao si od LA do Njujorka. Sad idi od LA do Toronta.
CA: So leaving aside regulation for a second, in terms of the technology alone, the time when someone will be able to buy one of your cars and literally just take the hands off the wheel and go to sleep and wake up and find that they've arrived, how far away is that, to do that safely?
KA: Ostavljajući za tren po strani propise, samo u smislu tehnologije, vreme kada će neko moći da kupi jedan od tvojih auta i bukvalno da digne ruke sa volana i zaspi i probudi se i shvati da je stigao, koliko je to daleko, da bude bezbedno?
EM: I think that's about two years. So the real trick of it is not how do you make it work say 99.9 percent of the time, because, like, if a car crashes one in a thousand times, then you're probably still not going to be comfortable falling asleep. You shouldn't be, certainly.
IM: Mislim da se radi o dve godine. Dakle, stvarni trik nije u tome da funkcioniše, recimo, 99,9 procenata vremena jer, ako se auto sudari jednom u hiljadu puta, onda vam i dalje neće biti svejedno da zaspite. Svakako da ne bi trebalo.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
It's never going to be perfect. No system is going to be perfect, but if you say it's perhaps -- the car is unlikely to crash in a hundred lifetimes, or a thousand lifetimes, then people are like, OK, wow, if I were to live a thousand lives, I would still most likely never experience a crash, then that's probably OK.
Nikada neće da bude savršeno. Nijedan sistem neće da bude savršen, ali ako kažete da je možda - da su mali izgledi za sudar u stotinu života ili hiljadu života, onda su ljudi u fazonu, u redu, opa, ako bih živeo hiljadu života, i dalje najverovatnije ne bih nikad doživeo sudar, onda je to verovatno u redu.
CA: To sleep. I guess the big concern of yours is that people may actually get seduced too early to think that this is safe, and that you'll have some horrible incident happen that puts things back.
KA: Zaspati. Pretpostavljam da te veoma brine da bi ljude mogli zapravo da zavedu da prerano pomisle da je ovo bezbedno, te da će da dođe do nekog užasnog incidenta koji će da odloži sve.
EM: Well, I think that the autonomy system is likely to at least mitigate the crash, except in rare circumstances. The thing to appreciate about vehicle safety is this is probabilistic. I mean, there's some chance that any time a human driver gets in a car, that they will have an accident that is their fault. It's never zero. So really the key threshold for autonomy is how much better does autonomy need to be than a person before you can rely on it?
IM: Pa, mislim da će samoupravljajući sistem verovatno bar ublažiti sudar, osim u retkim okolnostima. Nešto što treba ceniti kod bezbednosti vozila je da se radi o verovatnoći. Mislim, postoji mogućnost da će bilo kad kad ljudski vozač uđe u auto, svojom krivicom da izazove nesreću. Nikad to nije nula. Dakle, zaista ključni prag kod samoupravljanja je koliko samoupravljanje mora da bude bolje od osobe pre nego što mognete da se oslonite na njega?
CA: But once you get literally safe hands-off driving, the power to disrupt the whole industry seems massive, because at that point you've spoken of people being able to buy a car, drops you off at work, and then you let it go and provide a sort of Uber-like service to other people, earn you money, maybe even cover the cost of your lease of that car, so you can kind of get a car for free. Is that really likely?
KA: Ali čim nam bude bezbedna vožnja bez ruku, čini se da će silina raskola u celoj industriji biti ogromna jer rekao si da će u tom momentu ljudi moći da kupe auto, odbaciće ih na posao i potom ga prepuštate i pružate drugim ljudima neku vrstu usluge nalik taksiju, zarađujete novac, možda čak i pokrivate troškove lizinga za taj auto, te vam nekako auto dođe besplatno. Da li je to zaista moguće?
EM: Yeah. Absolutely this is what will happen. So there will be a shared autonomy fleet where you buy your car and you can choose to use that car exclusively, you could choose to have it be used only by friends and family, only by other drivers who are rated five star, you can choose to share it sometimes but not other times. That's 100 percent what will occur. It's just a question of when.
IM: Da. Apsolutno će to da se desi. Imaćemo vozni park zajedničke autonomije, gde ćete da kupite auto i moći ćete da odaberete da isključivo vi koristite auto, moći ćete da odaberete da ga koriste jedino prijatelji i porodca, jedino drugi vozači koji su ocenjeni sa pet zvezdica, moći ćete da odaberete da ga delite nekad, a nekad ne. To će da se desi sto posto. Samo je pitanje kada.
CA: Wow. So you mentioned the Semi and I think you're planning to announce this in September, but I'm curious whether there's anything you could show us today?
KA: Opa! Pomenuo si semija i mislim da planiraš da ovo najaviš u septembru, ali sam znatiželjan ima li nešto št možeš danas da nam pokažeš?
EM: I will show you a teaser shot of the truck.
IM: Pokazaću vam sliku kamiona da vam zagolicam maštu.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
It's alive.
Živ je.
CA: OK.
KA: U redu.
EM: That's definitely a case where we want to be cautious about the autonomy features. Yeah.
IM: Ovo je definitivno slučaj gde želimo da budemo oprezni povodom izgleda autonomije. Da.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
CA: We can't see that much of it, but it doesn't look like just a little friendly neighborhood truck. It looks kind of badass. What sort of semi is this?
KA: Ne vidimo mnogo, ali ne izgleda kao puki prijateljski kamion iz komšiluka. Nekako izgleda opako. Kakav je ovo polukamion?
EM: So this is a heavy duty, long-range semitruck. So it's the highest weight capability and with long range. So essentially it's meant to alleviate the heavy-duty trucking loads. And this is something which people do not today think is possible. They think the truck doesn't have enough power or it doesn't have enough range, and then with the Tesla Semi we want to show that no, an electric truck actually can out-torque any diesel semi. And if you had a tug-of-war competition, the Tesla Semi will tug the diesel semi uphill.
IM: Dakle, ovo je polukamion velike nosivosti za velike razdaljine. Ima najveću nosivost i za velike je udaljenosti. Te je u suštini namenjen za olakšavanje tereta kamiona velike izdržljivosti. A to je nešto što ljudi danas smatraju da je nemoguće. Smatraju da kamion nema dovoljno snage, niti ima dovoljno dometa, a onda sa teslinim semijem želimo da pokažemo kako ne, električni kamion zapravo može da ima veću obrtnu moć od bilo kog dizel polukamiona. A kad biste imali takmičenje u izdržljivosti, Teslin semi bi odgurao dizel polukamion uz brdo.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
(Applause)
(Aplauz)
CA: That's pretty cool. And short term, these aren't driverless. These are going to be trucks that truck drivers want to drive.
KA: To je prilično sjajno. A za sad, nisu samoupravljajući. Ovo će da budu kamioni koje će kamiondžije želeti da voze.
EM: Yes. So what will be really fun about this is you have a flat torque RPM curve with an electric motor, whereas with a diesel motor or any kind of internal combustion engine car, you've got a torque RPM curve that looks like a hill. So this will be a very spry truck. You can drive this around like a sports car. There's no gears. It's, like, single speed.
IM: Da. Uistinu zabavno kod ovoga će da bude to što imate ravnu RPM krivu obrtnog momenta sa električnim motorom, dok kod dizel motora ili bilo kog auta s motorom s unutrašnjim sagorevanjem, imate RPM krivu obrtnog momenta koja izgleda kao brdo. Te će ovo da bude veoma žustar kamion. Možete da ga vozikate kao sportski automobil. Nema brzina. To je poput jedne brzine.
CA: There's a great movie to be made here somewhere. I don't know what it is and I don't know that it ends well, but it's a great movie.
KA: Ovde negde čuči sjajan film. Ne znam o kakvom filmu se radi i sumnjam da ima srećan kraj, ali je film sjajan.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
EM: It's quite bizarre test-driving. When I was driving the test prototype for the first truck. It's really weird, because you're driving around and you're just so nimble, and you're in this giant truck.
IM: Test vožnja je bizarna. Dok sam vozio prototip za testiranje ovog kamiona. Zaista je čudno jer se vozite okolo i prosto ste tako okretni, a u ovom ste džinovskom kamionu.
CA: Wait, you've already driven a prototype?
KA: Stani, već si vozio prototip?
EM: Yeah, I drove it around the parking lot, and I was like, this is crazy.
IM: Da, vozio sam ga po parkingu i bio sam u fazonu: ovo je ludo.
CA: Wow. This is no vaporware.
KA: Au. Ovo nije vejporvejv.
EM: It's just like, driving this giant truck and making these mad maneuvers.
IM: Prosto je kao, voziti ovaj džinovski kamion i praviti te obesne manevre.
CA: This is cool. OK, from a really badass picture to a kind of less badass picture. This is just a cute house from "Desperate Housewives" or something. What on earth is going on here?
KA: To je sjajno. U redu, sa zaista opake slike na nekako manje opaku sliku. Ovo je tek simpatična kuća iz "Očajnih domaćica" ili slično. Šta se, pobogu, dešava ovde?
EM: Well, this illustrates the picture of the future that I think is how things will evolve. You've got an electric car in the driveway. If you look in between the electric car and the house, there are actually three Powerwalls stacked up against the side of the house, and then that house roof is a solar roof. So that's an actual solar glass roof.
IM: Pa, ovo ilustruje sliku budućnosti, kako ja mislim da će se stvari razvijati. Imate električni auto na prilazu. Ako pogledate između električnog auta i kuće, imate zapravo tri Teslina akumulatora poređana uz bočni zid kuće, a onda krov kuće je solarni. Dakle, to je pravi krov od solarnog stakla.
CA: OK.
KA: U redu.
EM: That's a picture of a real -- well, admittedly, it's a real fake house. That's a real fake house.
IM: To je slika stvarne - pa, priznajem, to je stvarna kobajagi kuća. To je stvarna kobajagi kuća.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
CA: So these roof tiles, some of them have in them basically solar power, the ability to --
KA: Dakle, ove krovne cigle, neke u sebi sadrže solarnu energiju, u suštini, mogućnost da -
EM: Yeah. Solar glass tiles where you can adjust the texture and the color to a very fine-grained level, and then there's sort of microlouvers in the glass, such that when you're looking at the roof from street level or close to street level, all the tiles look the same whether there is a solar cell behind it or not. So you have an even color from the ground level. If you were to look at it from a helicopter, you would be actually able to look through and see that some of the glass tiles have a solar cell behind them and some do not. You can't tell from street level.
IM: Da. Solarne staklene cigle gde možete da prilagodite teksturu i boju do veoma izglančanog nivoa, a potom imamo nešto kao mikrovenecijanere od stakla, takve da kada posmatrate krov sa nivoa ulice ili nivoa bliže ulici, sve cigle izgledaju isto bilo da je solarna ćelija iza njih ili ne. Te imate ujednačenu boju sa nivoa ulica. Ako biste pogledali krov iz helikoptera, zapravo biste bili u stanju da vidite kroz njega i zapazite da neke staklene cigle imaju solarnu ćeliju ispod, a neke nemaju. Sa ulice se ne vidi razlika.
CA: You put them in the ones that are likely to see a lot of sun, and that makes these roofs super affordable, right? They're not that much more expensive than just tiling the roof.
KA: Stavljate ćelije iza onih koje su najizloženije suncu, a stoga su ovi krovovi superpristupačni, zar ne? Nisu toliko skuplji od običnih krovnih cigli?
EM: Yeah. We're very confident that the cost of the roof plus the cost of electricity -- A solar glass roof will be less than the cost of a normal roof plus the cost of electricity. So in other words, this will be economically a no-brainer, we think it will look great, and it will last -- We thought about having the warranty be infinity, but then people thought, well, that might sound like were just talking rubbish, but actually this is toughened glass. Well after the house has collapsed and there's nothing there, the glass tiles will still be there.
IM: Da. Veoma smo ubeđeni da će cena krova plus troškovi struje - Krov od solarnog stakla će da košta manje od normalnog krova plus troškovi struje. Dakle, drugim rečima, ovo će ekonomski biti bez dileme, mislimo da će odlično da izgleda i trajaće - Mislili smo da garancija bude do beskonačnosti, ali su ljudi smatrali, pa, to bi moglo da zvuči kao da pričamo gluposti, ali ovo je zapravo ojačano staklo. Pa, nakon što se kuća sruši i ništa više ne bude tu, staklene cigle će da budu tu.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)
CA: I mean, this is cool. So you're rolling this out in a couple week's time, I think, with four different roofing types.
KA: Mislim, ovo je sjajno. Dakle, krećeš s ovim, za nekoliko nedelja, mislim, sa četiri različita tipa krova.
EM: Yeah, we're starting off with two, two initially, and the second two will be introduced early next year.
IM: Da, započinjemo sa dva, prvobitno dva, a druga dva će da budu predstavljena početkom sledeće godine.
CA: And what's the scale of ambition here? How many houses do you believe could end up having this type of roofing?
KA: I, kolike su ti ambicije ovde? Koliko misliš da će kuća na kraju da ima ovaj tip krova?
EM: I think eventually almost all houses will have a solar roof. The thing is to consider the time scale here to be probably on the order of 40 or 50 years. So on average, a roof is replaced every 20 to 25 years. But you don't start replacing all roofs immediately. But eventually, if you say were to fast-forward to say 15 years from now, it will be unusual to have a roof that does not have solar.
IM: Mislim da će vremenom skoro sve kuće da imaju solarni krov. Ovde ćemo da uzmemo u obzir vremenski okvir da je verovatno u ravni od 40 ili 50 godina. Dakle, u proseku, svako 20 do 25 godina krov se menja. Ali ne menjate krov odjednom. Već vremenom, ako biste, recimo, premotali, recimo, 15 godina unapred, biće neobično imati krov koji nema solarne ćelije.
CA: Is there a mental model thing that people don't get here that because of the shift in the cost, the economics of solar power, most houses actually have enough sunlight on their roof pretty much to power all of their needs. If you could capture the power, it could pretty much power all their needs. You could go off-grid, kind of.
KA: Da li postoji kognitivni model koji ljudi ne razumeju ovde da će zbog izmene cene, ekonomičnosti solarne energije, većina kuća zapravo imati dovoljno sunčeve svetlosti na krovu da snabde skoro sve njihove potrebe. Ako bismo mogli da zarobimo energiju, mogla bi da zadovolji skoro sve naše potrebe. Mogli bi da se odsečete sa mreže.
EM: It depends on where you are and what the house size is relative to the roof area, but it's a fair statement to say that most houses in the US have enough roof area to power all the needs of the house.
IM: Zavisi gde se nalazite i koja je veličina kuće u odnosu na površinu krova, ali je pošteno reći da mnoge kuće u SAD-u imaju dovoljno krovne površine da opskrbe sve potrebe kuće za energijom.
CA: So the key to the economics of the cars, the Semi, of these houses is the falling price of lithium-ion batteries, which you've made a huge bet on as Tesla. In many ways, that's almost the core competency. And you've decided that to really, like, own that competency, you just have to build the world's largest manufacturing plant to double the world's supply of lithium-ion batteries, with this guy. What is this?
KA: Dakle, ključno za ekonomičnost automobila, semija, ovih kuća je pad cene litijum-jonskih baterija, na koje si stavio ogroman ulog Teslom. Na razne načine se radi skoro o suštinskoj sposobnosti. I ti si odlučio da zaista ovladaš tom sposobnošću, prosto si morao da sagradiš najveću na svetu fabriku da udvostručiš svetske zalihe litijum-jonskih baterija, s ovim momkom. Šta je ovo?
EM: Yeah, so that's the Gigafactory, progress so far on the Gigafactory. Eventually, you can sort of roughly see that there's sort of a diamond shape overall, and when it's fully done, it'll look like a giant diamond, or that's the idea behind it, and it's aligned on true north. It's a small detail.
IM: Da, dakle, to je Gigafabrika, dosadašnji napredak na Gigafabrici. Vremenom ćete otprilike moći da vidite da tu imamo, sve u svemu, dijamantski oblik, a kada bude gotova u potpunosti, izgledaće poput džinovskog dijamanta, barem je takva zamisao, i poravnata je sa stvarnim severom. To je maleni detalj.
CA: And capable of producing, eventually, like a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries a year.
KA: I u stanju je da proizvede, vremenom, otprilike stotinu gigavat časova baterija godišnje.
EM: A hundred gigawatt hours. We think probably more, but yeah.
IM: Stotinu gigavat časova. Verujemo i više, ali da.
CA: And they're actually being produced right now.
KA: I to se zapravo trenutno proizvodi.
EM: They're in production already. CA: You guys put out this video. I mean, is that speeded up?
IM: To se trenutno već proizvodi. KA: Momci, pustite snimak. Mislim, da li je ovo ubrzano?
EM: That's the slowed down version.
IM: To je usporena verzija.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
CA: How fast does it actually go?
KA: Koliko je zapravo brzo?
EM: Well, when it's running at full speed, you can't actually see the cells without a strobe light. It's just blur.
IM: Pa, kad je u punoj brzini, ne možete zapravo da vidite ćelije bez stroboskopa. Sve je zamagljeno.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
CA: One of your core ideas, Elon, about what makes an exciting future is a future where we no longer feel guilty about energy. Help us picture this. How many Gigafactories, if you like, does it take to get us there?
KA: Jedna od tvojih ključnih ideja, Ilone, o uzbudljivoj budućnosti je budućnost u kojoj nas savest više ne grize zbog energije. Pomozi nam da to zamislimo. Koliko Gigafabrika, ako hoćeš, je potrebno da to ostvarimo?
EM: It's about a hundred, roughly. It's not 10, it's not a thousand. Most likely a hundred.
IM: Radi se o oko stotinu, ugrubo. Ne radi se o 10, niti hiljadu. Najverovatnije stotinu.
CA: See, I find this amazing. You can picture what it would take to move the world off this vast fossil fuel thing. It's like you're building one, it costs five billion dollars, or whatever, five to 10 billion dollars. Like, it's kind of cool that you can picture that project. And you're planning to do, at Tesla -- announce another two this year.
KA: Vidiš, to mi je neverovatno. Možeš da zamisliš šta je potrebno da se svet pomeri sa fosilnih goriva. Čini se da jednu gradiš, košta pet milijardi dolara, ili tako nešto, pet do 10 milijardi dolara. Nekako je sjajno što možeš da zamisliš taj projekat. I planiraš, u Tesli - da ove godine najaviš još dve.
EM: I think we'll announce locations for somewhere between two and four Gigafactories later this year. Yeah, probably four.
IM: Mislim da ćemo da najavimo lokacije za nešto između dve i četiri Gigafabrike, kasnije u toku godine. Da, verovatno četiri.
CA: Whoa.
KA: Opa!
(Applause) No more teasing from you for here? Like -- where, continent? You can say no.
(Aplauz) Nećeš nam ništa otkriti? Kao - gde, kontinent? Možeš da kažeš ne.
EM: We need to address a global market.
IM: Moramo da se okrenemo globalnom tržištu.
CA: OK.
KA: U redu.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
This is cool. I think we should talk for -- Actually, global market. I'm going to ask you one question about politics, only one. I'm kind of sick of politics, but I do want to ask you this. You're on a body now giving advice to a guy --
Ovo je sjajno. Mislim da bismo trebali da razgovaramo - Zapravo, dvostruko je podvučeno. Upitaću te jedno pitanje o politici, samo jedno. Nekako mi je muka od politike, ali želim ovo da te pitam. Trenutno si u odboru, savetuješ ovog čoveka -
EM: Who?
IM: Kojeg?
CA: Who has said he doesn't really believe in climate change, and there's a lot of people out there who think you shouldn't be doing that. They'd like you to walk away from that. What would you say to them?
KA: Koji je rekao da zaista ne veruje u klimatske promene i ima mnogo ljudi u svetu koji misle da ne bi trebalo to da radiš. Želeli bi da to napustiš. Šta bi im rekao?
EM: Well, I think that first of all, I'm just on two advisory councils where the format consists of going around the room and asking people's opinion on things, and so there's like a meeting every month or two. That's the sum total of my contribution. But I think to the degree that there are people in the room who are arguing in favor of doing something about climate change, or social issues, I've used the meetings I've had thus far to argue in favor of immigration and in favor of climate change.
IM: Pa, mislim da pre svega, na svega sam dva savetodavna odbora čiji se format sastoji od šetanja prostorijom i traženja mišljenja ljudi o stvarima i imamo nekakav sastanak svakih mesec-dva dana. To je ukupni zbir mog doprinosa. Ali mislim da donekle ima ljudi u toj prostoriji koji se zalažu za to da se učini nešto povodom klimatskih promena ili društvenih pitanja. Iskoristio sam dosadašnje sastanke da govorim u ime imigracije i u ime klimatskih promena.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)
And if I hadn't done that, that wasn't on the agenda before. So maybe nothing will happen, but at least the words were said.
A da nisam uradio tako, to ne bi bilo na dnevnom redu. Te, možda se ništa neće desiti, ali je barem nešto rečeno.
CA: OK.
KA. U redu.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)
So let's talk SpaceX and Mars. Last time you were here, you spoke about what seemed like a kind of incredibly ambitious dream to develop rockets that were actually reusable. And you've only gone and done it.
Razgovarajmo o Spejs iksu i Marsu. Kad si poslednji put bio ovde, govorio si o nečemu što se činilo kao neverovatno ambiciozan san, o pravljenju raketa koje zapravo imaju vešestruku upotrebu. I prosto si se zaputio i to uradio.
EM: Finally. It took a long time.
IM: Konačno. Potrajalo je dugo.
CA: Talk us through this. What are we looking at here?
KA: Objasni nam ovo. U šta gledamo?
EM: So this is one of our rocket boosters coming back from very high and fast in space. So just delivered the upper stage at high velocity. I think this might have been at sort of Mach 7 or so, delivery of the upper stage.
IM: Dakle, ovo je jedan od naših raketnih akceleratora koji ide veoma visoko i brzo u svemiru. Upravo je gornji nivo razvio veliku brzinu. Mislim da je bila u rangu Mahovog broja 7 ili slično, to je gornji nivo razvio.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)
CA: So that was a sped-up --
CA: Dakle, to je ubrzana -
EM: That was the slowed down version.
IM: To je usporena verzija.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
CA: I thought that was the sped-up version. But I mean, that's amazing, and several of these failed before you finally figured out how to do it, but now you've done this, what, five or six times?
KA: Mislio sam da se radi o ubrzanom snimku. Ali, mislim, to je sjajno, a nekoliko ovih je omanulo, pre nego što ste konačno shvatili kako da to postignete, ali sad ste to postigli, koliko, pet ili šest puta?
EM: We're at eight or nine.
IM: Na osmom smo ili devetom.
CA: And for the first time, you've actually reflown one of the rockets that landed.
KA: I prvi put, zapravo ste ponovo leteli u jednoj od raketa koja se prizemljila.
EM: Yeah, so we landed the rocket booster and then prepped it for flight again and flew it again, so it's the first reflight of an orbital booster where that reflight is relevant. So it's important to appreciate that reusability is only relevant if it is rapid and complete. So like an aircraft or a car, the reusability is rapid and complete. You do not send your aircraft to Boeing in-between flights.
IM: Da, prizemljili smo raketni akcelerator i zatim ga pnovo pripremili za let i leteli ponovo njime, pa je to prvi ponovni let orbitalnog akceleratora gde je taj ponovni let relevantan. Važno je shvatiti da je višestruka upotrebljivost jedino relevantna, ako je brza i potpuna. Dakle, poput aviona ili auta, višestruka upotreba je brza i potpuna. Ne šaljete avion boingu između letova.
CA: Right. So this is allowing you to dream of this really ambitious idea of sending many, many, many people to Mars in, what, 10 or 20 years time, I guess.
KA: Tačno. Dakle, ovo ti omogućava da sanjaš o toj krajnje ambicioznoj ideji da pošalješ mnoge, mnoge, mnoge ljude na Mars za, koliko, 10 ili 20 godina, pretpostavljam.
EM: Yeah.
IM: Da.
CA: And you've designed this outrageous rocket to do it. Help us understand the scale of this thing.
KA: I dizajnirao si ovu zaprepašćujuću raketu za to. Pomozi nam da razumemo razmere ovoga.
EM: Well, visually you can see that's a person. Yeah, and that's the vehicle.
IM: Pa, vizuelno možete da spazite osobu pored. Da, a to je vozilo.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
CA: So if that was a skyscraper, that's like, did I read that, a 40-story skyscraper?
KA: Dakle, da je to neboder, to je poput, da li sam tako pročitao, poput 40-ospratnice?
EM: Probably a little more, yeah. The thrust level of this is really -- This configuration is about four times the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket.
IM: Verovatno je malo više, da. Stepen potiska ovoga je zaista - Potisak konfiguracije je oko četiri puta veći od potiska rakete Saturn V.
CA: Four times the thrust of the biggest rocket humanity ever created before.
KA: Četiri puta veći potisak od najveće rakete koju je čovečanstvo ikad napravilo.
EM: Yeah. Yeah.
IM: Da. Da.
CA: As one does. EM: Yeah.
CA: Kako obično biva. IM: Da.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
In units of 747, a 747 is only about a quarter of a million pounds of thrust, so for every 10 million pounds of thrust, there's 40 747s. So this would be the thrust equivalent of 120 747s, with all engines blazing.
U jedinicama boinga 747, 747 je tek oko 113 398 kilograma potiska, pa za svaka 4,5 miliona kilograma potiska, imamo 40 boinga 747. Dakle, ovo bi bio potisak jednak 120 boinga 747, s užarenim motorima.
CA: And so even with a machine designed to escape Earth's gravity, I think you told me last time this thing could actually take a fully loaded 747, people, cargo, everything, into orbit.
KA: Čak i sa mašinom dizajniranom da odoli Zemljinoj gravitaciji, mislim da si mi poslednji put rekao da ovo zapravo može da primi krcat 747, sa sve ljudima, prtljagom, svim, u orbitu.
EM: Exactly. This can take a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel, maximum passengers, maximum cargo on the 747 -- this can take it as cargo.
IM: Upravo. Ovo može da primi krcat 747 sa punim rezervoarom, popunjenim sedištima, maksimalnim prtljagom na 747 - ova raketa-nosač to može da primi kao prtljag.
CA: So based on this, you presented recently this Interplanetary Transport System which is visualized this way. This is a scene you picture in, what, 30 years time? 20 years time? People walking into this rocket.
KA: Dakle, na osnovu ovoga, skoro si predstavio Međuplanetarni transportni sistem, koji je ovako vizualizovan. Ovo je prizor koji zamišljaš za, koliko, 30 godina? 20 godina? Da će ljudi ušetati u ovu raketu.
EM: I'm hopeful it's sort of an eight- to 10-year time frame. Aspirationally, that's our target. Our internal targets are more aggressive, but I think --
IM: Nadam se da će da bude otprilike za osam do 10 godina. Težimo tome, to nam je cilj. Naši interni ciljevi su nešto agresivniji, ali mislim -
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
CA: OK.
KA: U redu.
EM: While vehicle seems quite large and is large by comparison with other rockets, I think the future spacecraft will make this look like a rowboat. The future spaceships will be truly enormous.
IM: Iako se vozilo čini prilično velikim i veliko je u poređenju s drugim raketama, mislim da će naspram budućih kosmičkih brodova ovo izgledati kao čamac. Budući svemirski brodovi će da budu istinski ogromni.
CA: Why, Elon? Why do we need to build a city on Mars with a million people on it in your lifetime, which I think is kind of what you've said you'd love to do?
KA: Zašto, Ilone? Zašto moramo da sagradimo grad na Marsu sa milion ljudi u njemu, u tvom životnom veku, što je nekako nešto što si rekao da bi voleo da uradiš?
EM: I think it's important to have a future that is inspiring and appealing. I just think there have to be reasons that you get up in the morning and you want to live. Like, why do you want to live? What's the point? What inspires you? What do you love about the future? And if we're not out there, if the future does not include being out there among the stars and being a multiplanet species, I find that it's incredibly depressing if that's not the future that we're going to have.
IM: Mislim da je važno imati budućnost koja je inspirativna i privlačna. Prosto smatram da moraju da postoje razlozi zbog kojih se ujutru budite i želite da živite. Kao, zašto želite da živite? Šta je svrha? Šta vas inspiriše? Šta vam se sviđa kod budućnosti? A ako nismo tamo negde, ako budućnost ne uključuje nas tamo negde među zvezdama i da smo višeplanetarna vrsta, nekako mi je to neverovatno deprimirajuće, ako to nije budućnost koju ćemo da imamo.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)
CA: People want to position this as an either or, that there are so many desperate things happening on the planet now from climate to poverty to, you know, you pick your issue. And this feels like a distraction. You shouldn't be thinking about this. You should be solving what's here and now. And to be fair, you've done a fair old bit to actually do that with your work on sustainable energy. But why not just do that?
KA: Ljudi žele da svrstaju ovo među ili-ili, da postoji toliko očajnih stvari koje se trenutno dešavaju na planeti, od klime do siromaštva do, znaš, izaberi problem. A ovo izgleda kao odvlačenje pažnje. Ne bi trebalo da razmišljaš o ovome. Trebalo bi da se baviš onim što je ovde i sad. I, pošteno je reći, da si imao svoj popriličan udeo u tome, svojim radom na održivoj energiji. Ali zašto se ne baviti samo time?
EM: I think there's -- I look at the future from the standpoint of probabilities. It's like a branching stream of probabilities, and there are actions that we can take that affect those probabilities or that accelerate one thing or slow down another thing. I may introduce something new to the probability stream. Sustainable energy will happen no matter what. If there was no Tesla, if Tesla never existed, it would have to happen out of necessity. It's tautological. If you don't have sustainable energy, it means you have unsustainable energy. Eventually you will run out, and the laws of economics will drive civilization towards sustainable energy, inevitably. The fundamental value of a company like Tesla is the degree to which it accelerates the advent of sustainable energy, faster than it would otherwise occur.
IM: Mislim da postoji - Posmatram budućnost s tačke gledišta verovatnoće. Poput razgranate bujice verovatnoće, i postoje postupci koje možemo da uradimo koji utiču na tu verovatnoću ili koji ubrzavaju jednu stvar ili usporavaju drugu stvar. Možda uvedem nešto novo u bujicu verovatnoće. Održiva energija će se desiti bez obzira na sve. Da nije bilo Tesle, da Tesla nikad nije postojala, desilo bi se iz nužde. To je tautološki. Ako nemate održivu energiju, to znači da imate neodrživu energiju. Vremenom ćete je potrošiti, te će ekonomski zakoni voditi civilizaciju ka održivoj energiji, neizbežno. Temeljna vrednost firme, poput Tesle, je stepen do kog ubrzava dolazak održive energije, brže nego što bi inače do nje došlo.
So when I think, like, what is the fundamental good of a company like Tesla, I would say, hopefully, if it accelerated that by a decade, potentially more than a decade, that would be quite a good thing to occur. That's what I consider to be the fundamental aspirational good of Tesla.
Pa kad razmišljam, kao, šta je temeljna dobrobit firme, poput Tesle, rekao bih, nadam se, da ako je ubrzala sve to za deceniju, potencijalno više od decenije, to bi bila prilično dobra stvar koja se desila. To ja smatram temeljnom dobrobiti kojoj teži Tesla.
Then there's becoming a multiplanet species and space-faring civilization. This is not inevitable. It's very important to appreciate this is not inevitable. The sustainable energy future I think is largely inevitable, but being a space-faring civilization is definitely not inevitable. If you look at the progress in space, in 1969 you were able to send somebody to the moon. 1969. Then we had the Space Shuttle. The Space Shuttle could only take people to low Earth orbit. Then the Space Shuttle retired, and the United States could take no one to orbit. So that's the trend. The trend is like down to nothing. People are mistaken when they think that technology just automatically improves. It does not automatically improve. It only improves if a lot of people work very hard to make it better, and actually it will, I think, by itself degrade, actually. You look at great civilizations like Ancient Egypt, and they were able to make the pyramids, and they forgot how to do that. And then the Romans, they built these incredible aqueducts. They forgot how to do it.
Potom, naše pretvaranje u višeplanetarnu vrstu i civilizaciju svemirskih putnika. To nije neizbežno. Veoma je važno da cenimo da to nije neizbežno. Budućnost održive energije, mislim da je većim delom neizbežna, ali biti civilizacija svemirskih putnika definitivno nije neizbežno. Ako posmatrate napredak u svemiru, 1969. ste bili u stanju da nekoga pošaljete na mesec. 1969. Potom smo imali spejs-šatl. Spejs-šatl je jedino mogao da odvede ljude do niže Zemljine orbite. Potom se spejs-šatl penzionisao, i Sjedinjene Države nikog nisu mogle povesti u orbitu. Dakle, to je trend. Trend se spušta do nule. Ljudi greše kad misle da se tehnologija prosto automatski unapređuje. Ne unapređuje se automatski. Jedino se unapređuje kada mnogo ljudi veoma vredno radi na njenom unapređenju i zapravo mislim da će prepuštena samoj sebi da se unazadi. Pogledajte velike civilizacije, poput drevnog Egipta, oni su bii u stanju da naprave piramide, i zaboravili su kako se to radi. Potom Rimljani, gradili su te neverovatne akvadukte. Zaboravili su kako se to radi.
CA: Elon, it almost seems, listening to you and looking at the different things you've done, that you've got this unique double motivation on everything that I find so interesting. One is this desire to work for humanity's long-term good. The other is the desire to do something exciting. And often it feels like you feel like you need the one to drive the other. With Tesla, you want to have sustainable energy, so you made these super sexy, exciting cars to do it. Solar energy, we need to get there, so we need to make these beautiful roofs. We haven't even spoken about your newest thing, which we don't have time to do, but you want to save humanity from bad AI, and so you're going to create this really cool brain-machine interface to give us all infinite memory and telepathy and so forth. And on Mars, it feels like what you're saying is, yeah, we need to save humanity and have a backup plan, but also we need to inspire humanity, and this is a way to inspire.
KA: Ilone, gotovo da se čini, dok te slušam i posmatram različite stvari koje si uradio, da imaš tu jedinstvenu dvostruku motivaciju za sve, koja je meni zanimljiva. Prva je žudnja da delaš u ime dugoročne dobrobiti čovečanstva. Druga je žudnja da uradiš nešto uzbudljivo. I često se čini kao da osećaš da ti je potrebna jedna da pokreće drugu. S Teslom želiš da imaš održivu energiju, pa si napravio ova izuzetno privlačna, uzbudljiva auta za to. Solarna energija, moramo to da ostvarimo, te moramo da pravimo te lepe krovove. Nismo čak ni pomenuli tvoj najnoviji projekat, za koji nemamo sad vremena, ali želiš da spasiš čovečanstvo od zle VI, te ćeš da napraviš taj istinski sjajan interfejs za mozak i mašinu da nam svima obezbediš neograničeno pamćenje i telepatiju itd. A na Marsu, utisak je da kao da govoriš: da, moramo da spasimo čovečanstvo i da imamo rezervni plan, ali takođe moramo da inspirišemo čovečanstvo, a ovo je način za to.
EM: I think the value of beauty and inspiration is very much underrated, no question. But I want to be clear. I'm not trying to be anyone's savior. That is not the -- I'm just trying to think about the future and not be sad.
IM: Mislim da je vrednost lepote i inspiracije poprilično potcenjena, bez sumnje. Ali želim da budem jasan. Ne pokušavam da budem ičiji spasilac. To nije - prosto pokušavam da razmišljam o budućnosti i da ne budem tužan.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)
CA: Beautiful statement. I think everyone here would agree that it is not -- None of this is going to happen inevitably. The fact that in your mind, you dream this stuff, you dream stuff that no one else would dare dream, or no one else would be capable of dreaming at the level of complexity that you do. The fact that you do that, Elon Musk, is a really remarkable thing. Thank you for helping us all to dream a bit bigger.
KA: Prelepa izjava. Mislim da će se svi ovde složiti da nije - Da se bilo šta od ovoga neće neizbežno desiti. Činjenica da u tovm umu sanjaš sve ovo, sanjaš stvari koje se niko drugi ne bi usudio da sanja ili ne bi bio u stanju da sanja na nivou složenosti na kom ti to radiš. Činjenica da to radiš, Ilon Mask, je zaista izvanredna stvar. Hvala ti što nam pomažeš da sanjamo bar malo više.
EM: But you'll tell me if it ever starts getting genuinely insane, right?
IM: Ali reći ćete mi ako se ikad pretvori u nešto krajnje sumanuto, je li tako?
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
CA: Thank you, Elon Musk. That was really, really fantastic. That was really fantastic.
KA: Hvala ti, Ilon Mask. Bilo je zaista, zaista fantastično. Bilo je zaista fantastično.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)