Chris Anderson: Elon, hey, welcome back to TED. It's great to have you here.
Chris Anderson: Dobrodošao ponovno na TED, Elone. Divno je da si ovdje.
Elon Musk: Thanks for having me.
Elon Musk: Hvala na pozivu.
CA: So, in the next half hour or so, we're going to spend some time exploring your vision for what an exciting future might look like, which I guess makes the first question a little ironic: Why are you boring?
CA: Idućih pola sata provest ćemo istražujući tvoju viziju uzbudljive budućnosti, zbog čega je prvo pitanje pomalo ironično: Zašto zabušavaš?
EM: Yeah. I ask myself that frequently. We're trying to dig a hole under LA, and this is to create the beginning of what will hopefully be a 3D network of tunnels to alleviate congestion. So right now, one of the most soul-destroying things is traffic. It affects people in every part of the world. It takes away so much of your life. It's horrible. It's particularly horrible in LA.
EM: Da. Često se i sam to pitam. Pokušavamo prokopati rupu podno Los Angelesa, kako bismo započeli, nadam se, trodimenzionalnu mrežu tunela radi rasterećenja prometa. Promet je trenutno jedna od najgorih stvari danas. Utječe na ljude diljem svijeta. Oduzima nam toliko vremena. To je strašno. Posebno je strašno u LA-u.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
CA: I think you've brought with you the first visualization that's been shown of this. Can I show this?
CA: Mislim da si ponio sa sobom prvi vizualni prikaz toga. Mogu li pokazati?
EM: Yeah, absolutely. So this is the first time -- Just to show what we're talking about. So a couple of key things that are important in having a 3D tunnel network. First of all, you have to be able to integrate the entrance and exit of the tunnel seamlessly into the fabric of the city. So by having an elevator, sort of a car skate, that's on an elevator, you can integrate the entrance and exits to the tunnel network just by using two parking spaces. And then the car gets on a skate. There's no speed limit here, so we're designing this to be able to operate at 200 kilometers an hour.
EM: Naravno. Ovo je prvi put -- Samo da pokažem o čemu govorimo. Ovo su neke od od ključnih stvari za trodimenzionalnu mrežu tunela. Prvo, trebate moći sjediniti ulaz i izlaz iz tunela besprijekorno s planom grada. Pomoću dizala, svojevrsnom platformom za aute, koja je na dizalu, možete sjediniti ulaze i izlaze s mrežom tunela koristeći samo dva parkirna mjesta. Auto onda dolazi na platformu. Ovdje nema ograničenja brzine, pa radimo na tome da može voziti 200 kilometara na sat.
CA: How much?
CA: Koliko?
EM: 200 kilometers an hour, or about 130 miles per hour. So you should be able to get from, say, Westwood to LAX in six minutes -- five, six minutes.
EM: 200 kilometara na sat, odnosno 130 milja na sat. Tako bi putovanje od Westwooda do Zračne luke Los Angeles trajalo pet do šest minuta.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
CA: So possibly, initially done, it's like on a sort of toll road-type basis.
CA: Znači da bi se to onda temeljilo na cestarini.
EM: Yeah.
EM: Tako je.
CA: Which, I guess, alleviates some traffic from the surface streets as well.
CA: Tako bi se rasteretio i promet na cestama.
EM: So, I don't know if people noticed it in the video, but there's no real limit to how many levels of tunnel you can have. You can go much further deep than you can go up. The deepest mines are much deeper than the tallest buildings are tall, so you can alleviate any arbitrary level of urban congestion with a 3D tunnel network. This is a very important point. So a key rebuttal to the tunnels is that if you add one layer of tunnels, that will simply alleviate congestion, it will get used up, and then you'll be back where you started, back with congestion. But you can go to any arbitrary number of tunnels, any number of levels.
EM: Ne znam jesu li ljudi primijetili to u videu, ne postoji pravo ograničenje na to koliko razina tunela možemo imati. Možemo ići mnogo dublje nego što možemo ići u visinu. Najdublji rudnici su mnogo dublji od najviših zgrada, tako da možemo rasteretiti svaku proizvoljnu razinu urbane gužve pomoću 3D mreže tunela. To je vrlo bitna stavka. Glavni argument protiv tunela jest da ako dodamo jednu razinu tunela, to će samo rasteretiti gužvu i bit će potpuno iskorišten, a onda ćemo opet biti na početku, s problemom prometne zagušenosti. No, možemo ići do bilo kojeg proizvoljnog broja tunela, i bilo kojeg broja razina.
CA: But people -- seen traditionally, it's incredibly expensive to dig, and that would block this idea.
CA: Ljudi su oduvijek iskapanje smatrali nevjerojatno skupim, i to može biti zapreka ovoj ideji.
EM: Yeah. Well, they're right. To give you an example, the LA subway extension, which is -- I think it's a two-and-a-half mile extension that was just completed for two billion dollars. So it's roughly a billion dollars a mile to do the subway extension in LA. And this is not the highest utility subway in the world. So yeah, it's quite difficult to dig tunnels normally. I think we need to have at least a tenfold improvement in the cost per mile of tunneling.
EM: Da. U pravu su. Kao primjer ću vam dati produženje losanđeleske podzemne željeznice, mislim da je oko 4 kilometara dugačko i nedavno dovršeno za dvije milijarde dolara. Znači da jedan i pol km produžene podzemne u LA-u košta oko milijardu dolara. I k tome se ne radi o najefikasnijoj podzemnoj na svijetu. Dakle, istina je da nije lako kopati tunele. Mislim da trebamo najmanje deseterostruko poboljšanje u trošku po kilometru tunela.
CA: And how could you achieve that?
CA: Kako biste to ostvarili?
EM: Actually, if you just do two things, you can get to approximately an order of magnitude improvement, and I think you can go beyond that. So the first thing to do is to cut the tunnel diameter by a factor of two or more. So a single road lane tunnel according to regulations has to be 26 feet, maybe 28 feet in diameter to allow for crashes and emergency vehicles and sufficient ventilation for combustion engine cars. But if you shrink that diameter to what we're attempting, which is 12 feet, which is plenty to get an electric skate through, you drop the diameter by a factor of two and the cross-sectional area by a factor of four, and the tunneling cost scales with the cross-sectional area. So that's roughly a half-order of magnitude improvement right there. Then tunneling machines currently tunnel for half the time, then they stop, and then the rest of the time is putting in reinforcements for the tunnel wall. So if you design the machine instead to do continuous tunneling and reinforcing, that will give you a factor of two improvement. Combine that and that's a factor of eight. Also these machines are far from being at their power or thermal limits, so you can jack up the power to the machine substantially. I think you can get at least a factor of two, maybe a factor of four or five improvement on top of that. So I think there's a fairly straightforward series of steps to get somewhere in excess of an order of magnitude improvement in the cost per mile, and our target actually is -- we've got a pet snail called Gary, this is from Gary the snail from "South Park," I mean, sorry, "SpongeBob SquarePants."
EM: Ako napravimo samo dvije stvari, dosegli bismo otprilike napredak za red veličine, a mislim da možemo postići i više od toga. Prvo trebamo smanjiti promjer tunela za barem polovicu ili više. Tako tunel s jednom trakom, prema propisima mora biti promjera 8 ili 8.5 metara kako bi bilo prostora u slučaju nesreće i za vozila hitne pomoći, kao i za ventilaciju za vozila s motorom s unutrašnjim sagorijevanjem. Međutim, ako suzite promjer kako mi namjeravamo, a to je 3.6 metara, što je dovoljno za prolazak električnog nosača, tunel ste prepolovili a prostor poprečnog presjeka četverostruko umanjili, a cijena kopanja tunela ovisi o veličini poprečnog presjeka. To je otprilike napredak za pola reda veličine. Strojevi za iskapanje tunela polovicu vremena rade, a drugu polovicu miruju, a ostatak vremena radimo na učvršćivanju zidova tunela. Pa ako umjesto toga stvorite strojeve koji će neprestano kopati i učvršćivati tunele, to će značiti dupli napredak. Kad ste to zbroji, dobivamo osmerostruko poboljšanje. Osim toga, ti strojevi još nisu ni blizu granice svoje toplinske moći, pa im možemo značajno povećati snagu. Mislim da ih barem za polovicu, možda čak i četiri ili pet puta možemo osnažiti. Mislim da imamo vrlo jasan slijed koraka kako bismo dosegli više od jednog reda veličine poboljšanja cijene po kilometru. Naš je cilj zapravo - imamo ljubimca puža Garyja, prema pužu Garyju iz "South Parka", odnosno crtića "Spužva Bob Skockani".
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
So Gary is capable of -- currently he's capable of going 14 times faster than a tunnel-boring machine.
Gary može trenutno može ići 14 puta brže od stroja za kopanje tunela.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
CA: You want to beat Gary.
CA: Želite pobijediti Garyja.
EM: We want to beat Gary.
EM: Želimo ga pobijediti.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
He's not a patient little fellow, and that will be victory. Victory is beating the snail.
On nije jako strpljiv, i to će biti uspijeh. Pobjeda je preticanje puža.
CA: But a lot of people imagining, dreaming about future cities, they imagine that actually the solution is flying cars, drones, etc. You go aboveground. Why isn't that a better solution? You save all that tunneling cost.
CA: Međutim, mnogi ljudi koji sanjaju o gradovima budućnosti zamišljaju leteće automobile, dronove i slično. Išlo bi se u visinu. Zašto to nije bolje riješenje? Toliko bismo uštedjeli na iskapanju tunela.
EM: Right. I'm in favor of flying things. Obviously, I do rockets, so I like things that fly. This is not some inherent bias against flying things, but there is a challenge with flying cars in that they'll be quite noisy, the wind force generated will be very high. Let's just say that if something's flying over your head, a whole bunch of flying cars going all over the place, that is not an anxiety-reducing situation.
EM: Ja sam za leteće stvari. Očigledno volim leteće stvari, s obzirom da proizvodim rakete. Ovdje nije riječ o predrasudi spram letjelica, već prostoje određeni izazovi kod letećih automobila, poput velike buke, ili proizvodnje velike snage vjetra. Samo ću reći to da ako nešto leti iznad naših glava, gomila letećih automobila koji lete na sve strane, to sigurno nije umirujuća situacija.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
You don't think to yourself, "Well, I feel better about today." You're thinking, "Did they service their hubcap, or is it going to come off and guillotine me?" Things like that.
Nećete pomisliti, "Baš mi je danas dobar dan." Pomislit ćete, "Jesu li servisirali ratkape, ili će otpasti i giljotinirati me?" Takve stvari.
CA: So you've got this vision of future cities with these rich, 3D networks of tunnels underneath. Is there a tie-in here with Hyperloop? Could you apply these tunnels to use for this Hyperloop idea you released a few years ago.
CA: Znači imaš viziju budućih gradova s bogatim 3D mrežama tunela. Ima li tu veza s Hyperloopom? Biste li mogli primijeniti te tunele na ideji Hyperloopa koju ste predstavili prije par godina?
EM: Yeah, so we've been sort of puttering around with the Hyperloop stuff for a while. We built a Hyperloop test track adjacent to SpaceX, just for a student competition, to encourage innovative ideas in transport. And it actually ends up being the biggest vacuum chamber in the world after the Large Hadron Collider, by volume. So it was quite fun to do that, but it was kind of a hobby thing, and then we think we might -- so we've built a little pusher car to push the student pods, but we're going to try seeing how fast we can make the pusher go if it's not pushing something. So we're cautiously optimistic we'll be able to be faster than the world's fastest bullet train even in a .8-mile stretch.
EM:Neko vrijeme smo petljali s nacrtima Hyperloopa. Izgradili smo testnu stazu za Hyperloop pored SpaceX-a, samo radi natjecanja za studente, da potaknemo inovativne ideje u prometu. Na kraju je to ispala najveća vakuumska komora na svijetu nakon Velikog hadronskog sudarivača, po volumenu. Bilo je zabavno to napraviti, ali to mi je više bio hobi. Mislimo da bismo mogli - Izgradili smo mali auto koji gura kapsule studenata, i probat ćemo vidjeti koliko brzo on može ići ako ne gura ništa. Oprezno smo optimistični da ćemo moći putovati brže od najbržeg supervlaka čak i u rasponu od 1.3 kilometra.
CA: Whoa. Good brakes.
CA: Opa, dobre kočnice.
EM: Yeah, I mean, it's -- yeah. It's either going to smash into tiny pieces or go quite fast.
EM: Da. Mislim, da će -- da. Ili će se raspasti na komadiće ili će ići vrlo brzo.
CA: But you can picture, then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel running quite long distances.
CA: Možemo zamisliti Hyperloop u tunelu kako prelazi velike razdaljine.
EM: Exactly. And looking at tunneling technology, it turns out that in order to make a tunnel, you have to -- In order to seal against the water table, you've got to typically design a tunnel wall to be good to about five or six atmospheres. So to go to vacuum is only one atmosphere, or near-vacuum. So actually, it sort of turns out that automatically, if you build a tunnel that is good enough to resist the water table, it is automatically capable of holding vacuum.
EM: Upravo tako. Promatrajući tehnologiju tunela, ispada da, kako bi se napravio tunel, trebate -- Kako biste se osigurali od podzemnih voda, trebate sagraditi zid koji može izdržati pritisak od oko pet ili šest atmosfera. Uvođenje vakuuma je samo jedna atmosfera, ili stanje blizu vakuuma. Ispada da zapravo automatski, ako izgradimo tunel koji je dovoljno osiguran od podzemnih voda, onda je on automatski sposoban zadržavati vakuum.
CA: Huh.
CA: Hm.
EM: So, yeah.
EM: Da.
CA: And so you could actually picture, what kind of length tunnel is in Elon's future to running Hyperloop?
CA: Možeš li zamisliti koliko bi bio dugačak tvoj tunel koji funkcionira po principu Hyperloopa?
EM: I think there's no real length limit. You could dig as much as you want. I think if you were to do something like a DC-to-New York Hyperloop, I think you'd probably want to go underground the entire way because it's a high-density area. You're going under a lot of buildings and houses, and if you go deep enough, you cannot detect the tunnel. Sometimes people think, well, it's going to be pretty annoying to have a tunnel dug under my house. Like, if that tunnel is dug more than about three or four tunnel diameters beneath your house, you will not be able to detect it being dug at all. In fact, if you're able to detect the tunnel being dug, whatever device you are using, you can get a lot of money for that device from the Israeli military, who is trying to detect tunnels from Hamas, and from the US Customs and Border patrol that try and detect drug tunnels. So the reality is that earth is incredibly good at absorbing vibrations, and once the tunnel depth is below a certain level, it is undetectable. Maybe if you have a very sensitive seismic instrument, you might be able to detect it.
EM: Mislim da nema granice u dužini. Možete kopati koliko god želite. Mislim da, kada biste napravili nešto poput Hyperloopa između Washingtona i New Yorka, mislim da biste željeli da to bude cijelom dužinom pod zemljom jer se radi o gusto naseljenom području. Idete ispod mnogo zgrada i kuća, i ako idete dovoljno duboko, ne možete primijetiti tunel. Ljudi ponekad misle, "Bit će koma kada će mi kopati tunel ispod kuće." Ako taj tunel kopate više od tri ili četiri promjera tunela ispod kuće, uopće nećete primijetiti da se kopa. Zapravo, ako to uspijete primijetiti, koji god da uređaj koristite, možete dobiti jako puno novaca od izraelske vojske za taj uređaj, jer pokušava otkriti Hamasove tunele, kao i od Američke agencije za carinu i zaštitu granice koja traži tunele droge. Dakle, u stvarnosti zemlja odlično upija vibracije, i kada je dubina tunela ispod određene razine, tunel onda je neprimjetan. Možda ako imate vrlo osjetljiv seizmički instrument, onda ćete ga moći detektirati.
CA: So you've started a new company to do this called The Boring Company. Very nice. Very funny.
CA: Osnovao si novu tvrtku koja se time bavi duhovito nazvanu The Boring Company. (boring na eng. "bušenje" i "dosadan")
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
EM: What's funny about that?
EM: Što je tu tako smiješno?
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
CA: How much of your time is this?
CA: Koliko ti to vremena oduzima?
EM: It's maybe ... two or three percent.
EM: Možda... dva ili tri posto.
CA: You've called it a hobby. This is what an Elon Musk hobby looks like.
CA: Kupio si hobi. Ovako izgleda hobi Elona Muska.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
EM: I mean, it really is, like -- This is basically interns and people doing it part time. We bought some second-hand machinery. It's kind of puttering along, but it's making good progress, so --
EM: Zaista je kao -- Time se zapravo bave pripravnici i honorarni radnici. Kupili smo rabljenu mašineriju. Malo petljamo s time, ali dobro napredujemo.
CA: So an even bigger part of your time is being spent on electrifying cars and transport through Tesla. Is one of the motivations for the tunneling project the realization that actually, in a world where cars are electric and where they're self-driving, there may end up being more cars on the roads on any given hour than there are now?
CA: Veći dio tvog vremena otpada na elektrificiranje auta i prometa kroz Teslu. Je li jedan od motiva za projekt tunela shvaćanje da zapravo u svijetu u kojem su automobili električni i samoupravljajući, možda će doći do još većeg broja automobila na cestama nego što ih trenutno ima?
EM: Yeah, exactly. A lot of people think that when you make cars autonomous, they'll be able to go faster and that will alleviate congestion. And to some degree that will be true, but once you have shared autonomy where it's much cheaper to go by car and you can go point to point, the affordability of going in a car will be better than that of a bus. Like, it will cost less than a bus ticket. So the amount of driving that will occur will be much greater with shared autonomy, and actually traffic will get far worse.
EM: Upravo tako. Mnogi misle da kada napravite autonomne automobile, da će moći voziti brže i tako riješiti problem prometnih gužvi. To će donekle i biti tako, ali čim imate zajedničku autonomiju, mnogo je jeftinije ići automobilom i možete ići od točke do točke. Pristupačnost putovanja autom bit će veća od putovanja autobusom. Manje će koštati od karte za autobus. Dakle, zajednička autonomija utjecat će na porast vožnje, i promet će se pogoršati.
CA: You started Tesla with the goal of persuading the world that electrification was the future of cars, and a few years ago, people were laughing at you. Now, not so much.
CA: Osnovao si Teslu kako bi uvjerio svijet da je elektrifikacija budućnost automobila i do prije par godina ljudi su ti se smijali. Sada se baš i ne smiju.
EM: OK.
EM: Ok.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
I don't know. I don't know.
Ne znam.
CA: But isn't it true that pretty much every auto manufacturer has announced serious electrification plans for the short- to medium-term future?
CA: Nije li istina da je gotovo svaki proizvođač automobila najavio ozbiljne planove elektrifikacije za kratkoročnu tj. srednjoročnu budućnost?
EM: Yeah. Yeah. I think almost every automaker has some electric vehicle program. They vary in seriousness. Some are very serious about transitioning entirely to electric, and some are just dabbling in it. And some, amazingly, are still pursuing fuel cells, but I think that won't last much longer.
EM: Tako je. Mislim da svaki proizvođač auta ima neki program za elektrifikaciju vozila. Njihova ozbiljnost varira. Neki vrlo ozbiljno planiraju potpuno prijeći na električnu struju, dok se drugi samo površno time bave. Neki, za divno čudo, još zagovaraju gorive ćelije, ali mislim da to neće još dugo trajati.
CA: But isn't there a sense, though, Elon, where you can now just declare victory and say, you know, "We did it." Let the world electrify, and you go on and focus on other stuff?
CA: No, nije li istina da sada možeš proglasiti pobjedu i reći "Uspjeli smo." Neka se svijet elektrificira, a ti se kreneš baviti drugim stvarima?
EM: Yeah. I intend to stay with Tesla as far into the future as I can imagine, and there are a lot of exciting things that we have coming. Obviously the Model 3 is coming soon. We'll be unveiling the Tesla Semi truck.
EM: Da. Namjeravam ostati u Tesli dokle god se mogu tamo zamisliti, a radimo na mnogim uzbudljivim stvarima. Uskoro izlazi Model 3. Prikazat ćemo i Teslin tegljač.
CA: OK, we're going to come to this. So Model 3, it's supposed to be coming in July-ish.
CA: Doći ćemo i na to. Znači, Model 3 bi trebao izaći u srpnju?
EM: Yeah, it's looking quite good for starting production in July.
EM: Da, dobri su izgledi za početak proizvodnje u srpnju.
CA: Wow. One of the things that people are so excited about is the fact that it's got autopilot. And you put out this video a while back showing what that technology would look like.
CA: Opa. Jedan od razloga zašto su ljudi toliko uzbuđeni jest činjenica da ima autopilot. Objavio si ovaj video prije nekog vremena pokazujući kako će ta tehnologija izgledati.
EM: Yeah.
EM: Da.
CA: There's obviously autopilot in Model S right now. What are we seeing here?
CA: Očigledno, Model S već sada ima autopilot. Što sada gledamo?
EM: Yeah, so this is using only cameras and GPS. So there's no LIDAR or radar being used here. This is just using passive optical, which is essentially what a person uses. The whole road system is meant to be navigated with passive optical, or cameras, and so once you solve cameras or vision, then autonomy is solved. If you don't solve vision, it's not solved. So that's why our focus is so heavily on having a vision neural net that's very effective for road conditions.
EM: Ovdje se koriste samo kamera i GPS. Ne koristi se ni LIDAR niti radar. Koristi se samo pasivna optika, što zapravo i čovjek koristi. Cijelim cestovnim sustavom kretalo bi se uz pomoć pasivne optike ili kamera, i kada riješite problem kamera ili vida, riješili ste samoupravljanje. Ako ne riješite problem vida, niste ni samoupravljanje. Zato se toliko fokusiramo na vizualnu neuronsku mrežu koja je jako efikasna kod uvjeta na cesti.
CA: Right. Many other people are going the LIDAR route. You want cameras plus radar is most of it.
CA: Dobro. Mnogi radije koriste LIDAR kao rješenje. Ti želiš samo kamere i radar.
EM: You can absolutely be superhuman with just cameras. Like, you can probably do it ten times better than humans would, just cameras.
EM: Apsolutno je moguće biti superčovjek samo s kamerama. Vjerojatno bi funkcionirao deset puta bolje od običnih ljudi, samo uz pomoć kamera.
CA: So the new cars being sold right now have eight cameras in them. They can't yet do what that showed. When will they be able to?
CA: Novi auti koji su u prodaji imaju osam kamera. Još ne mogu raditi ono što smo vidjeli. Kada će to moći raditi?
EM: I think we're still on track for being able to go cross-country from LA to New York by the end of the year, fully autonomous.
EM: Mislim da smo na dobrom putu da prijeđemo preko cijele zemlje od LA-a do New Yorka do kraja godine, potpuno autonomno.
CA: OK, so by the end of the year, you're saying, someone's going to sit in a Tesla without touching the steering wheel, tap in "New York," off it goes.
CA: Znači, tvrdiš da će do kraja godine netko sjesti u Teslu da ne dirne volan, utipkati "New York" i samo krenuti.
EM: Yeah.
EM: Da.
CA: Won't ever have to touch the wheel -- by the end of 2017.
CA: Neće uopće trebati dirati volan, do kraja 2017. godine.
EM: Yeah. Essentially, November or December of this year, we should be able to go all the way from a parking lot in California to a parking lot in New York, no controls touched at any point during the entire journey.
EM: Da. U suštini, do studenog ili prosinca ove godine, trebali bismo moći prijeći cijeli put od parkirališta u Kaliforniji do parkirališta u New Yorku, bez manualnog upravljanja tijekom cijelog puta.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
CA: Amazing. But part of that is possible because you've already got a fleet of Teslas driving all these roads. You're accumulating a huge amount of data of that national road system.
CA: Čudesno. No, ovo je djelomično već moguće jer već imate cijelu flotu Tesli koje voze po cestama. Prikupljate goleme količine podataka nacionalnog cestovnog sustava.
EM: Yes, but the thing that will be interesting is that I'm actually fairly confident it will be able to do that route even if you change the route dynamically. So, it's fairly easy -- If you say I'm going to be really good at one specific route, that's one thing, but it should be able to go, really be very good, certainly once you enter a highway, to go anywhere on the highway system in a given country. So it's not sort of limited to LA to New York. We could change it and make it Seattle-Florida, that day, in real time. So you were going from LA to New York. Now go from LA to Toronto.
EM: Da, no ono što će biti zanimljivo jest to što će sigurno moći prijeći tu rutu čak i ako je dinamički mijenjate. Dakle, prilično je jednostavno -- Ako kažete da će mi dobro ići na jednoj ruti, to je jedna stvar, ali trebalo bi dobro funkcionirati čim se uključite na autocestu, kako biste se nesmetano kretali po autocestama u navedenoj zemlji. Nije ograničeno samo na put od LA-a do New Yorka. Možemo promijeniti put u rutu od Seattlea do Floride, taj isti dan, u stvarnom vremenu. Znači krenuli ste iz LA-a prema New Yorku. Onda idete od LA-a u Toronto.
CA: So leaving aside regulation for a second, in terms of the technology alone, the time when someone will be able to buy one of your cars and literally just take the hands off the wheel and go to sleep and wake up and find that they've arrived, how far away is that, to do that safely?
CA: Ako stavimo na stranu regulaciju, i samo govorimo o tehnologiji, kada će osoba moći kupiti tvoj automobil i zaspati doslovno ni ne dodirnuvši volan a zatim se probuditi na odredištu, koliko treba vremena da to postane moguće?
EM: I think that's about two years. So the real trick of it is not how do you make it work say 99.9 percent of the time, because, like, if a car crashes one in a thousand times, then you're probably still not going to be comfortable falling asleep. You shouldn't be, certainly.
EM: Oko dvije godine. Pravi problem nije kako da to napravimo da funkcionira u 99.9 posto slučajeva, jer ako se pokvari jedan od tisuću automobila, još uvijek vam neće biti ugodna pomisao da zaspite u njemu. Ne bi vam trebala biti ugodna.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
It's never going to be perfect. No system is going to be perfect, but if you say it's perhaps -- the car is unlikely to crash in a hundred lifetimes, or a thousand lifetimes, then people are like, OK, wow, if I were to live a thousand lives, I would still most likely never experience a crash, then that's probably OK.
Nikada neće biti savršeno. Nijedan sustav neće biti savršen, ali ako kažete da možda -- da su mali izgledi za sudar u stotinu ili tisuću života, onda ljudi reagiraju pozitivno, kao "Da živim tisuću života, vjerojatno ni onda ne bih doživi sudar, i to je zasigurno u redu."
CA: To sleep. I guess the big concern of yours is that people may actually get seduced too early to think that this is safe, and that you'll have some horrible incident happen that puts things back.
CA: Zaspati u autu. Pretpostavljam da te brine pomisao da se ljudi prerano zavedu mišlju kako je to sigurno, i da će se dogoditi neki užasan incident koji će unazaditi sve ovo.
EM: Well, I think that the autonomy system is likely to at least mitigate the crash, except in rare circumstances. The thing to appreciate about vehicle safety is this is probabilistic. I mean, there's some chance that any time a human driver gets in a car, that they will have an accident that is their fault. It's never zero. So really the key threshold for autonomy is how much better does autonomy need to be than a person before you can rely on it?
EM: Mislim da će autonomni sustav barem umanjiti sudar, osim u rijetkim slučajevima. Ono što treba cijeniti kod sigurnosti vozila jest to da se temelji na vjerojatnosti. Postoji vjerojatnost da kada god čovjek uđe u automobil, vlastitom krivicom izazove nesreću. Ne postoji sto postotna sigurnost. Ključni prag za autonomiju je koliko zapravo autonomni sustav mora biti bolji od čovjeka da bi bio pouzdan?
CA: But once you get literally safe hands-off driving, the power to disrupt the whole industry seems massive, because at that point you've spoken of people being able to buy a car, drops you off at work, and then you let it go and provide a sort of Uber-like service to other people, earn you money, maybe even cover the cost of your lease of that car, so you can kind of get a car for free. Is that really likely?
CA: No jednom kada dobijete vožnju bez ruku, moć da se uruši cijela industrija je golema, jer si rekao da ćemo moći kupiti auto, koji će nas dovesti na posao, a onda ćemo ga poslati dalje i omogućiti drugima uslugu poput Ubera, pritom zaraditi novac, možda i pokriti troškove leasinga za auto, pa tako gotovo da možete besplatno nabaviti auto. Je li to zaista moguće?
EM: Yeah. Absolutely this is what will happen. So there will be a shared autonomy fleet where you buy your car and you can choose to use that car exclusively, you could choose to have it be used only by friends and family, only by other drivers who are rated five star, you can choose to share it sometimes but not other times. That's 100 percent what will occur. It's just a question of when.
EM: Da. Ovo će se apsolutno dogoditi. Postojat će zajednička autonomna flota gdje ćete kupiti auto i birati da ga samo vi vozite, ili ćete dozvoliti da ga koriste samo vaša obitelj i prijatelji, ili samo drugi vozači ocjenjeni s pet zvijezdica, možete odlučiti kada ga želite i ne želite dijeliti. To će se sto posto dogoditi. Samo je pitanje vremena.
CA: Wow. So you mentioned the Semi and I think you're planning to announce this in September, but I'm curious whether there's anything you could show us today?
CA: Opa. Spomenuo si tegljač i mislim da ga planiraš najaviti u rujnu, ali me zanima ako nam možeš pokazati išta danas?
EM: I will show you a teaser shot of the truck.
EM: Pokazat ću vam sliku kamiona samo da vam zagolicam maštu.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
It's alive.
Živ je.
CA: OK.
CA: Ok.
EM: That's definitely a case where we want to be cautious about the autonomy features. Yeah.
EM: Ovdje zaista želimo biti oprezni s mogućnostima autonomije. Da.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
CA: We can't see that much of it, but it doesn't look like just a little friendly neighborhood truck. It looks kind of badass. What sort of semi is this?
CA: Ne vidimo ga najbolje, no ne izgleda baš kao mali zgodni kamiončić iz susjedstva. Izgleda opako. Kakva je to vrsta tegljača?
EM: So this is a heavy duty, long-range semitruck. So it's the highest weight capability and with long range. So essentially it's meant to alleviate the heavy-duty trucking loads. And this is something which people do not today think is possible. They think the truck doesn't have enough power or it doesn't have enough range, and then with the Tesla Semi we want to show that no, an electric truck actually can out-torque any diesel semi. And if you had a tug-of-war competition, the Tesla Semi will tug the diesel semi uphill.
EM: Ovo je tegljač velike nosivosti za velike razdaljine. Ima najveću nosivost i za velike je udaljenosti. Zapravo bi trebao olakšati prijenos teškog tereta. Danas se to smatra nemogućim. Ljudi misle da kamion nema dovoljno snage ili da ne može prijeći velike udaljenosti, a s Telsa tegljačem želimo pokazati da električni kamion zapravo može biti jači od bilo kojeg kamiona s dizel motorom. Da imate natjecanje u izdržljivosti, Teslin tegljač bi odgurnuo dizelaša uz brdo.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
CA: That's pretty cool. And short term, these aren't driverless. These are going to be trucks that truck drivers want to drive.
CA: Zaista sjajno. Kratkoročno gledano, njih će trebati voziti. To će biti kamioni koje će vozači kamiona htjeti voziti.
EM: Yes. So what will be really fun about this is you have a flat torque RPM curve with an electric motor, whereas with a diesel motor or any kind of internal combustion engine car, you've got a torque RPM curve that looks like a hill. So this will be a very spry truck. You can drive this around like a sports car. There's no gears. It's, like, single speed.
EM: Da. Ono što će biti jako zabavno jest to da elektromotor ima ravnu krivulju okretnog momenta dok dizel motor ili bilo koji auto s motorom s unutrašnjim izgaranjem, ima krivulju okretnog momenta koja liči na brdo. Tako da će ovo biti vrlo žustar kamion. Možete ga voziti okolo kao sportski auto. Nema brzina, tj. ima samo jednu brzinu.
CA: There's a great movie to be made here somewhere. I don't know what it is and I don't know that it ends well, but it's a great movie.
CA: Sigurno će napraviti sjajan film o ovome. Ne znam koji i nisam siguran hoće li dobro završiti, ali sigurno će biti dobar film.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
EM: It's quite bizarre test-driving. When I was driving the test prototype for the first truck. It's really weird, because you're driving around and you're just so nimble, and you're in this giant truck.
EM: Test vožnja je jako bizarna. Kada sam vozio testni prototip za prvi kamion. Vrlo je čudan, jer se vozite naokolo i tako ste okretni, a nalazite se u ogromnom kamionu.
CA: Wait, you've already driven a prototype?
CA: Već si vozio prototip?
EM: Yeah, I drove it around the parking lot, and I was like, this is crazy.
EM: Da, vozio sam ga po parkiralištu, i bilo mi je ludo.
CA: Wow. This is no vaporware.
CA: Opa. To nam zaista dolazi.
EM: It's just like, driving this giant truck and making these mad maneuvers.
EM: Vožnja ovog golemog kamiona i ludi manevri.
CA: This is cool. OK, from a really badass picture to a kind of less badass picture. This is just a cute house from "Desperate Housewives" or something. What on earth is going on here?
CA: To je sjajno. Idemo s jedne opake slike, na jednu ne tako opaku sliku. Ovo je poput slatke kuće iz "Očajnih kućanica". O čemu se ovdje radi?
EM: Well, this illustrates the picture of the future that I think is how things will evolve. You've got an electric car in the driveway. If you look in between the electric car and the house, there are actually three Powerwalls stacked up against the side of the house, and then that house roof is a solar roof. So that's an actual solar glass roof.
EM: Ovo prikazuje sliku budućnosti kako ja smatram da će se stvari odvijati. Imate električni auto na prilazu. Ako pogledate između auta i kuće, vidite tri Powerwall baterije naslagane uz zid kuće, a krov kuće je solarni. To je zapravo solarni stakleni krov.
CA: OK.
CA: U redu.
EM: That's a picture of a real -- well, admittedly, it's a real fake house. That's a real fake house.
EM: To je slika prave, tj. prave lažne kuće. To je prava lažna kuća.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
CA: So these roof tiles, some of them have in them basically solar power, the ability to --
CA: Ti krovni crijepovi, neki od njih imaju solarnu energiju, sposobnost da --
EM: Yeah. Solar glass tiles where you can adjust the texture and the color to a very fine-grained level, and then there's sort of microlouvers in the glass, such that when you're looking at the roof from street level or close to street level, all the tiles look the same whether there is a solar cell behind it or not. So you have an even color from the ground level. If you were to look at it from a helicopter, you would be actually able to look through and see that some of the glass tiles have a solar cell behind them and some do not. You can't tell from street level.
EM: Da. Solarni stakleni crijepovi kod kojih možete podesiti teksturu i boju do vrlo precizne razine, a postoje i mikrootvori u staklu, tako da kada promatrate krov s razine ulice ili blizu razine ulice, svi crijepovi izgledaju jednako bilo da neki imaju ili nemaju solarnu ćeliju ispod sebe. Imate jednoličnu boju s razine zemlje. Da promatrate iz helikoptera, mogli biste vidjeti kroz njih i uočiti solarne ćelije ispod nekih staklenih crijepova. To ne možete vidjeti s razine ulice.
CA: You put them in the ones that are likely to see a lot of sun, and that makes these roofs super affordable, right? They're not that much more expensive than just tiling the roof.
CA: Ugrađujete ih u one crijepove koji dobivaju više sunca, i zato su ti krovovi toliko isplativi, zar ne? Nisu mnogo skuplji od krova s običnim crijepom.
EM: Yeah. We're very confident that the cost of the roof plus the cost of electricity -- A solar glass roof will be less than the cost of a normal roof plus the cost of electricity. So in other words, this will be economically a no-brainer, we think it will look great, and it will last -- We thought about having the warranty be infinity, but then people thought, well, that might sound like were just talking rubbish, but actually this is toughened glass. Well after the house has collapsed and there's nothing there, the glass tiles will still be there.
EM: Tako je. Uvjereni smo da će cijena krova uključujući troškove struje -- Cijena solarnog staklenog krova bit će manja od cijene običnog krova uključujući troškove struje. Drugim riječima, ovo će biti jednostavna ekonomska odluka, mislimo da će izgledati odlično, i trajat će -- Razmišljali smo o tome da garancija nema granice, no su neki pomislili, da govorimo gluposti, ali zapravo se radi o kaljenom staklu. Još mnogo godina nakon što se kuća uruši i ne ostane više ništa od nje, stakleni crijepovi će još uvijek biti tu.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
CA: I mean, this is cool. So you're rolling this out in a couple week's time, I think, with four different roofing types.
CA: To je zaista sjajno. Krećeš s ovime za nekoliko tjedana, sa četiri različita tipa krova.
EM: Yeah, we're starting off with two, two initially, and the second two will be introduced early next year.
EM: Da, počinjemo s dva tipa, a druga dva ćemo predstaviti početkom iduće godine.
CA: And what's the scale of ambition here? How many houses do you believe could end up having this type of roofing?
CA: I koliko ste ambiciozni oko toga? Koliko kuća mislite da će imati ovakvu vrstu krova?
EM: I think eventually almost all houses will have a solar roof. The thing is to consider the time scale here to be probably on the order of 40 or 50 years. So on average, a roof is replaced every 20 to 25 years. But you don't start replacing all roofs immediately. But eventually, if you say were to fast-forward to say 15 years from now, it will be unusual to have a roof that does not have solar.
EM: Mislim da će s vremenom gotovo sve kuće imati solarni krov. Treba uzeti u obzir da će trebati određeno vrijeme da se to ostvari, oko 40 do 50 godina. Krov se u prosjeku zamjenjuje svakih 20 do 25 godina. No, nećete odmah početi mijenjati sve krovove. S vremenom, ako gledamo 15 godina unaprijed, bit će neobično vidjeti krov bez solarnih ploča.
CA: Is there a mental model thing that people don't get here that because of the shift in the cost, the economics of solar power, most houses actually have enough sunlight on their roof pretty much to power all of their needs. If you could capture the power, it could pretty much power all their needs. You could go off-grid, kind of.
CA: Je li problem u tome da ljudi ne razumiju kako će solarna energija biti ekonomična, zbog izmjene cijene, jer većina kuća zapravo ima dovoljno sunčeve svjetlosti na krovu da opskrbi sve potrebe kućanstva. Kada biste mogli uhvatiti energiju, ona bi mogla opskrbljivati sve vaše potrebe. Mogli biste se skinuti s mreže.
EM: It depends on where you are and what the house size is relative to the roof area, but it's a fair statement to say that most houses in the US have enough roof area to power all the needs of the house.
EM: To ovisi o vašoj lokaciji i veličini kuće u usporedbi s veličinom krova, ali mogu reći da većina kuća u SAD-u ima dovoljno velike krovove da opskrbe sve potrebe kućanstva.
CA: So the key to the economics of the cars, the Semi, of these houses is the falling price of lithium-ion batteries, which you've made a huge bet on as Tesla. In many ways, that's almost the core competency. And you've decided that to really, like, own that competency, you just have to build the world's largest manufacturing plant to double the world's supply of lithium-ion batteries, with this guy. What is this?
CA: Znači, ključ isplativosti automobila, tegljača i ovih kuća je u padu cijena litij-ionskih baterija, na što si stavio veliki ulog Teslom. Radi se o gotovo ključnoj sposobnosti. Odlučio si da, kako bi zaista savladao tu sposobnost, moraš izgraditi najveću tvornicu na svijetu kako bi udvostručio svjetsku zalihu litij-ionskih baterija, ovime. Što je ovo?
EM: Yeah, so that's the Gigafactory, progress so far on the Gigafactory. Eventually, you can sort of roughly see that there's sort of a diamond shape overall, and when it's fully done, it'll look like a giant diamond, or that's the idea behind it, and it's aligned on true north. It's a small detail.
EM: Ovo je Gigatvornica, dosadašnji napredak na Gigatvornici. Možete vidjeti da ima otprilike oblik romba, a kada će biti dovršena, izgledat će poput golemog dijamanta, takva je barem zamisao, i okrenuta je prema stvarnom sjeveru. To je mali detalj.
CA: And capable of producing, eventually, like a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries a year.
CA: I moći će proizvesti godišnje stotinu gigavat-sata baterija.
EM: A hundred gigawatt hours. We think probably more, but yeah.
EM: Stotinu gigavat-sata. Mislimo čak i više od toga.
CA: And they're actually being produced right now.
CA: One se već sada proizvode.
EM: They're in production already. CA: You guys put out this video. I mean, is that speeded up?
EM: Već su u proizvodnji. CA: Objavili ste ovaj video. Je li ovo ubrzan prikaz?
EM: That's the slowed down version.
EM: Ovo je usporeni prikaz.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
CA: How fast does it actually go?
CA: Koliko brzo ide?
EM: Well, when it's running at full speed, you can't actually see the cells without a strobe light. It's just blur.
EM: Kada je u najvećoj brzini, ne možete vidjeti ćelije bez stroboskopa. Inače je nejasno.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
CA: One of your core ideas, Elon, about what makes an exciting future is a future where we no longer feel guilty about energy. Help us picture this. How many Gigafactories, if you like, does it take to get us there?
CA: Jedna od tvojih ključnih ideja oko toga što čini budućnost tako uzbudljivom jest budućnost u kojoj nas više ne grize savjest zbog struje. Objasni nam to. Koliko je Gigatvornica potrebno da se to ostvari?
EM: It's about a hundred, roughly. It's not 10, it's not a thousand. Most likely a hundred.
EM: Otprilike stotinu njih. Ne desest, niti tisuću. Najvjerojatnije sto.
CA: See, I find this amazing. You can picture what it would take to move the world off this vast fossil fuel thing. It's like you're building one, it costs five billion dollars, or whatever, five to 10 billion dollars. Like, it's kind of cool that you can picture that project. And you're planning to do, at Tesla -- announce another two this year.
CA: Mislim da je ovo čudesno. Možeš zamisliti što je sve potrebno da se svijet udalji od fosilnih goriva. Za izgradnju jedne tvornice, potrebno je pet milijardi dolara, ili recimo pet do deset milijardi dolara. Sjajno je što to uopće možeš zamisliti. Ove godine u Tesli planiraš najaviti još dvije tvornice.
EM: I think we'll announce locations for somewhere between two and four Gigafactories later this year. Yeah, probably four.
EM: Mislim da ćemo najaviti lokacije za dvije do četiri Gigatvornice tijekom ove godine. Vjerojatno četiri.
CA: Whoa.
CA: Opa!
(Applause) No more teasing from you for here? Like -- where, continent? You can say no.
(Pljesak) Nećeš nam ništa više otkriti? Na primjer lokaciju, kontinent? Možeš odbiti.
EM: We need to address a global market.
EM: Moramo se pozabaviti globalnim tržištem,
CA: OK.
CA: U redu.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
This is cool. I think we should talk for -- Actually, global market. I'm going to ask you one question about politics, only one. I'm kind of sick of politics, but I do want to ask you this. You're on a body now giving advice to a guy --
To je sjajno. Mislim da bismo trebali govoriti -- Zapravo, pazi sad. Postavit ću ti samo jedno pitanje o politici. Muka mi je od politike, ali te zaista želim ovo pitati. Trenutno si u odboru i savjetuješ jednog čovjeka --
EM: Who?
EM: Koga?
CA: Who has said he doesn't really believe in climate change, and there's a lot of people out there who think you shouldn't be doing that. They'd like you to walk away from that. What would you say to them?
CA: Koji je rekao da ne vjeruje u klimatske promjene, i mnogo ljudi smatra da ne bi trebao to raditi. Žele da odustaneš od toga. Što bi im ti poručio?
EM: Well, I think that first of all, I'm just on two advisory councils where the format consists of going around the room and asking people's opinion on things, and so there's like a meeting every month or two. That's the sum total of my contribution. But I think to the degree that there are people in the room who are arguing in favor of doing something about climate change, or social issues, I've used the meetings I've had thus far to argue in favor of immigration and in favor of climate change.
EM: Prije svega mislim, član sam samo dva savjetodavna odbora koji funkcioniraju tako da se krećemo po sobi i pitamo druge za njihovo mišljenje, i svaki mjesec ili dva imamo sastanak. To je sav moj doprinos. No, mislim da u toj sobi donekle ima i onih koji se zalažu da se napravi nešto u vezi klimatskih pomjena, ili društvenih problema. Dosad sam te sastanke koristio kako bih se zalagao za imigraciju i protiv klimatskih promjena.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
And if I hadn't done that, that wasn't on the agenda before. So maybe nothing will happen, but at least the words were said.
Da to nisam napravio, sada to ne bi bilo na dnevnom redu. Možda se ništa neće dogoditi, ali barem sam izrazio svoje mišljenje.
CA: OK.
CA: U redu.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
So let's talk SpaceX and Mars. Last time you were here, you spoke about what seemed like a kind of incredibly ambitious dream to develop rockets that were actually reusable. And you've only gone and done it.
Pričajmo malo o SpaceX-u i Marsu. Zadnji puta kada si bio ovdje govorio si o nečemu što se činilo kao nevjerojatno ambiciozan san o izgradnji raketa koje bi bile višestruko upotrebljive. A tako si i napravio.
EM: Finally. It took a long time.
EM: Napokon. Trebalo je puno vremena.
CA: Talk us through this. What are we looking at here?
CA: Pojasni nam. Što ovdje gledamo?
EM: So this is one of our rocket boosters coming back from very high and fast in space. So just delivered the upper stage at high velocity. I think this might have been at sort of Mach 7 or so, delivery of the upper stage.
EM: Ovo je jedna naša pogonska raketa koja se velikom brzinom vraća iz velike udaljenosti u svemiru. Gornji dio je razvio veliku brzinu. Mislim da se kretala brzinom od oko sedam Mahova, to je razvio gornji dio.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
CA: So that was a sped-up --
CA: Ovo je bila ubrzana --
EM: That was the slowed down version.
EM: Ovo je bila usporena snimka.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
CA: I thought that was the sped-up version. But I mean, that's amazing, and several of these failed before you finally figured out how to do it, but now you've done this, what, five or six times?
CA: Mislio sam da je to bila ubrzana verzija. To je zaista nevjerojatno, a nekoliko ovakvih raketa je propalo prije no što si napokon shvatio kako to ostvariti, a sada si to napravio već pet-šest puta?
EM: We're at eight or nine.
EM: Sada smo na osmom ili devetom testu.
CA: And for the first time, you've actually reflown one of the rockets that landed.
CA: I po prvi puta, upotrijebio si raketu koja je već letjela.
EM: Yeah, so we landed the rocket booster and then prepped it for flight again and flew it again, so it's the first reflight of an orbital booster where that reflight is relevant. So it's important to appreciate that reusability is only relevant if it is rapid and complete. So like an aircraft or a car, the reusability is rapid and complete. You do not send your aircraft to Boeing in-between flights.
EM: Da, prizemljli smo pogonsku raketu i potom je pripremili za ponovni let i lansirali je, tako da je to prvi ponovljeni let lansirne rakete zbog čega je taj let značajan. Treba imati na umu da je višestruka uporaba značajna samo onda kada je brza i potpuna. Dakle, poput aviona ili auta, višestruka uporaba je brza i potpuna. Ne šaljete svoj avion proizvođaču na pregled između svakog leta.
CA: Right. So this is allowing you to dream of this really ambitious idea of sending many, many, many people to Mars in, what, 10 or 20 years time, I guess.
CA: Tako je. Zahvaljujući tome možete sanjariti o vrlo ambicioznoj ideji o slanju velikog broja ljudi na Mars za recimo 10 ili 20 godina.
EM: Yeah.
EM: Tako je.
CA: And you've designed this outrageous rocket to do it. Help us understand the scale of this thing.
CA: Ti si konstruirao tu nečuvenu raketu kako bi to ostvario. Objasni nam njene razmjere.
EM: Well, visually you can see that's a person. Yeah, and that's the vehicle.
EM: Možete vidjeti da je ovo osoba. A ovo je raketa.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
CA: So if that was a skyscraper, that's like, did I read that, a 40-story skyscraper?
CA: Da je to neboder, imala bi 40 katova, zar ne?
EM: Probably a little more, yeah. The thrust level of this is really -- This configuration is about four times the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket.
EM: Vjerojatno malo više. Stupanj potiska rakete je zaista - Ova verzija je četiri puta jača od potiska rakete Saturn V koja je letjela na Mjesec.
CA: Four times the thrust of the biggest rocket humanity ever created before.
CA: Četiri puta jača od najjače rakete koju je izgradilo čovječanstvo.
EM: Yeah. Yeah.
EM: Tako je.
CA: As one does. EM: Yeah.
CA: Sasvim normalno. EM: Da.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
In units of 747, a 747 is only about a quarter of a million pounds of thrust, so for every 10 million pounds of thrust, there's 40 747s. So this would be the thrust equivalent of 120 747s, with all engines blazing.
U jedinicama Boeinga 747, 747 ima oko 114 tisuća kilograma potiska, pa za svaka 4.5 milijuna kg potiska, imamo 40 Boeinga 747. Taj potisak bio bi jednak 120 Boeinga 747, sa svim upaljenim motorima.
CA: And so even with a machine designed to escape Earth's gravity, I think you told me last time this thing could actually take a fully loaded 747, people, cargo, everything, into orbit.
CA: Čak i sa strojem konstruiranim za izlazak iz Zemljine gravitacije, mislim da si mi zadnji put rekao da bi ova raketa mogla vinuti nakrcani Boeing 747, zajedno s ljudima, teretom, svime, u orbitu.
EM: Exactly. This can take a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel, maximum passengers, maximum cargo on the 747 -- this can take it as cargo.
EM: Upravo tako. Može primiti puni 747 s punim rezervoarom, s maksimalnim brojem putnika i tereta, može ga primiti kao teret na sebe.
CA: So based on this, you presented recently this Interplanetary Transport System which is visualized this way. This is a scene you picture in, what, 30 years time? 20 years time? People walking into this rocket.
CA: Na osnovu toga, nedavno si predstavio Međuplanetarni Transportni Sustav koji je ovako prikazan. Misliš da će ovaj prikaz postati stvarnost za 20 ili 30 godina? Ukrcavanje u ovu raketu.
EM: I'm hopeful it's sort of an eight- to 10-year time frame. Aspirationally, that's our target. Our internal targets are more aggressive, but I think --
EM: Nadam se da će do toga doći za 8 do 10 godina. Težimo za time, to nam je cilj. Naši interni ciljevi su agresivniji, no mislim --
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
CA: OK.
CA: U redu.
EM: While vehicle seems quite large and is large by comparison with other rockets, I think the future spacecraft will make this look like a rowboat. The future spaceships will be truly enormous.
EM: Iako se raketa čini jako velika, i velika je u odnosu na druge rakete, mislim da će u usporedbi s budućim svemirskim letjelicama ova izgledati kao čamac na vesla. Buduće svemirske letjelice zaista će biti goleme.
CA: Why, Elon? Why do we need to build a city on Mars with a million people on it in your lifetime, which I think is kind of what you've said you'd love to do?
CA: Zašto, Elone? Zašto moramo izgraditi grad na Marsu s milijun ljudi u tvom životnom vijeku? Mislim da si rekao da bi volio to ostvariti.
EM: I think it's important to have a future that is inspiring and appealing. I just think there have to be reasons that you get up in the morning and you want to live. Like, why do you want to live? What's the point? What inspires you? What do you love about the future? And if we're not out there, if the future does not include being out there among the stars and being a multiplanet species, I find that it's incredibly depressing if that's not the future that we're going to have.
EM: Smatram da je bitno imati inspirativnu i privlačnu budućnost. Jednostavno mislim da trebamo imati razloge zbog kojih se ujutro ustajemo i živimo. Zašto želite živjeti? Koja je svrha? Što vas nadahnjuje? Što vas kod budućnosti veseli? A ako nismo tamo, ako budućnost ne uključuje našu prisutnost među zvijezdama i nas kao multiplanetarnu vrstu, to smatram nevjerojatno depresivnim, ako to neće biti naša budućnost.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
CA: People want to position this as an either or, that there are so many desperate things happening on the planet now from climate to poverty to, you know, you pick your issue. And this feels like a distraction. You shouldn't be thinking about this. You should be solving what's here and now. And to be fair, you've done a fair old bit to actually do that with your work on sustainable energy. But why not just do that?
CA: Ljudi ovo smatraju nebitnim, jer se toliko užasnih stvari trenutno događa na svijetu od klime do siromaštva, možeš birati problem. A ovo djeluje kao nešto što odvraća pozornost. Ne bi trebao o tome razmišljati. Trebao bi rješavati postojeće probleme. Da budem iskren, puno si toga i napravio svojim radom na održivoj energiji. Zašto se ne zadržavaš samo na tome?
EM: I think there's -- I look at the future from the standpoint of probabilities. It's like a branching stream of probabilities, and there are actions that we can take that affect those probabilities or that accelerate one thing or slow down another thing. I may introduce something new to the probability stream. Sustainable energy will happen no matter what. If there was no Tesla, if Tesla never existed, it would have to happen out of necessity. It's tautological. If you don't have sustainable energy, it means you have unsustainable energy. Eventually you will run out, and the laws of economics will drive civilization towards sustainable energy, inevitably. The fundamental value of a company like Tesla is the degree to which it accelerates the advent of sustainable energy, faster than it would otherwise occur.
EM: Mislim da ima -- Budućnost promatram s gledišta mogućnosti. Kao neke točke od koje se granaju mogućnosti. Određenim postupcima možemo utjecati na te mogućnosti bilo da ubrzaju jednu stvar ili da uspore drugu. Mogao bih uvesti nešto novo u tu mrežu mogućnosti. Održiva energija će se sigurno ostvariti. Da nema Tesle, da nikada nije postojala, trebala bi se ostvariti iz čiste nužde. To je čista tautologija. Ako nemate održivu energiju, to znači da imate neodrživu energiju. S vremenom ćete je istrošiti, i zakoni ekonomije pogurat će civilizaciju prema održivoj energiji. To je neizbježno. Temeljna vrijednost tvrtke poput Tesle jest ta do koje mjere ubrzava dolazak održive enetgije, brže no što bi se ona inače pojavila.
So when I think, like, what is the fundamental good of a company like Tesla, I would say, hopefully, if it accelerated that by a decade, potentially more than a decade, that would be quite a good thing to occur. That's what I consider to be the fundamental aspirational good of Tesla.
Pa kada pomislim, koje je temeljno dobro tvrtke poput Tesle, s nadom bih rekao, ako ona ubrza taj proces za desetljeće, potencijalno i više od toga, to bi zaista bila vrlo dobra stvar. To je ono što smatram temeljnim dobrom kojem Tesla teži.
Then there's becoming a multiplanet species and space-faring civilization. This is not inevitable. It's very important to appreciate this is not inevitable. The sustainable energy future I think is largely inevitable, but being a space-faring civilization is definitely not inevitable. If you look at the progress in space, in 1969 you were able to send somebody to the moon. 1969. Then we had the Space Shuttle. The Space Shuttle could only take people to low Earth orbit. Then the Space Shuttle retired, and the United States could take no one to orbit. So that's the trend. The trend is like down to nothing. People are mistaken when they think that technology just automatically improves. It does not automatically improve. It only improves if a lot of people work very hard to make it better, and actually it will, I think, by itself degrade, actually. You look at great civilizations like Ancient Egypt, and they were able to make the pyramids, and they forgot how to do that. And then the Romans, they built these incredible aqueducts. They forgot how to do it.
Zatim imamo pretvaranje u multiplanetarnu vrstu i civilizaciju koja putuje svemirom. To nije nešto neizbježno. Treba biti svjestan da to nije neizbježno. Budućnost s održivom energijom uglavnom je neizbježna, ali rast u civilizaciju koja putuje svemirom sigurno nije neizbježna. Ako pogledate napredak u svemiru, godine 1969. mogli ste poslati čovjeka na Mjesec. 1969. Onda smo imali Space Shuttle. On je mogao dovesti ljude samo u nižu zemljinu orbitu. Zatim su povukli Space Shuttle, i SAD više nikoga nije mogao vinuti u orbitu. To je trend. Trend je nazadovanje. Ljudi se varaju kada misle da se tehnologija automatski poboljšava. To nije tako. Ona se jedino poboljšava ako puno ljudi naporno radi na tome da funkcionira bolje, i zapravo smatram da se će ona sama po sebi unazaditi. Pogledajte velike civilizacije poput drevnog Egipta, mogli su izgraditi piramide, a onda su zaboravili tu vještinu. Potom Rimljani, mogli su izgraditi čudesne akvadukte. Zaboravili su tu vještinu.
CA: Elon, it almost seems, listening to you and looking at the different things you've done, that you've got this unique double motivation on everything that I find so interesting. One is this desire to work for humanity's long-term good. The other is the desire to do something exciting. And often it feels like you feel like you need the one to drive the other. With Tesla, you want to have sustainable energy, so you made these super sexy, exciting cars to do it. Solar energy, we need to get there, so we need to make these beautiful roofs. We haven't even spoken about your newest thing, which we don't have time to do, but you want to save humanity from bad AI, and so you're going to create this really cool brain-machine interface to give us all infinite memory and telepathy and so forth. And on Mars, it feels like what you're saying is, yeah, we need to save humanity and have a backup plan, but also we need to inspire humanity, and this is a way to inspire.
CA: Gotovo da se čini, kada te slušam i kada sagledam razne stvari koje si napravio, da imaš jedinstvenu duplu motivaciju za sve što ja smatram zanimljivim. Jedno je želja da radiš za dugoročnu dobrobit čovječanstva. Drugo je želja da radiš na nečemu uzbudljivom. Često se čini kao da ti treba prvo kako bi ostvario drugo. Uz Teslu želiš imati održivu enegiju, pa si radi toga napravio ove izuzetno privlačne, uzbudljive aute. Treba nam sunčeva energija, pa zato trebamo izgraditi one divne krovove. Nismo niti spomenuli tvoj najnoviji projekt, za to nemamo vremena, no, ti želiš sačuvati čovječanstvo od loše umjetne inteligencije, stoga ćeš napraviti sjajno sučelje između mozga i stroja kako bi nam svima omogućio bezgranično pamćenje, telepatiju i tako dalje. A na Marsu, čini se da želiš reći da trebamo spasiti čovječanstvo i imati plan B, ali i da trebamo nadahnuti čovječanstvo, i da je to način kako da to ostvarimo.
EM: I think the value of beauty and inspiration is very much underrated, no question. But I want to be clear. I'm not trying to be anyone's savior. That is not the -- I'm just trying to think about the future and not be sad.
EM: Mislim da je vrijednost ljepote i nadahnuća vrlo podcijenjena, to je neupitno. No, želim biti jasan. Ne želim biti ničiji spasitelj. To nije -- Ja samo pokušavam razmišljati o budućnosti a da me to ne rastužuje.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
CA: Beautiful statement. I think everyone here would agree that it is not -- None of this is going to happen inevitably. The fact that in your mind, you dream this stuff, you dream stuff that no one else would dare dream, or no one else would be capable of dreaming at the level of complexity that you do. The fact that you do that, Elon Musk, is a really remarkable thing. Thank you for helping us all to dream a bit bigger.
CA: Prekrasna izjava. Mislim da bi se svi ovdje složili da to nije -- Ništa od ovog neće se neizbježno ostvariti. Činjenica da u tvom umu, da sanjaš o ovome, o stvarima o kojima se nitko drugi ne bi usudio sanjati, ili nitko drugi ne bi mogao sanjati tako kompleksno kao ti. Činjenica da ti to radiš, Elone Musk, zaista je izvanredna stvar. Hvala ti što nam svima pomažeš sanjati veće snove.
EM: But you'll tell me if it ever starts getting genuinely insane, right?
EM: Reći ćeš mi ako stvari postanu zaista sulude, zar ne?
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
CA: Thank you, Elon Musk. That was really, really fantastic. That was really fantastic.
CA: Hvala ti, Elone Musk. Ovo je bilo zaista fantastično. Zaista fantastično.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)