Over the past six months, I've spent my time traveling. I think I've done 60,000 miles, but without leaving my desk. And the reason I can do that is because I'm actually two people. I look like one person but I'm two people. I'm Eddie who is here, and at the same time, my alter ego is a big green boxy avatar nicknamed Cyber Frank.
過去六個月來,我大多 在旅行。我大概已經走了 60,000 英里 但從未離開我的書桌 我能夠這麼做的原因是,我有兩個分身。 我看起來像一個人,但事實上我是兩個人。我是一個在這裡的 Eddie, 但同時,第二個我,是個綠色的方盒, 我是一個叫做 Cyber Frank 的阿凡達。
So that's what I spend my time doing. I'd like to start, if it's possible, with a test, because I do business stuff, so it's important that we focus on outcomes. And then I struggled, because I was thinking to myself, "What should I talk? What should I do? It's a TED audience. It's got to be stretching. How am I going to make — ?" So I just hope I've got the level of difficulty right. So let's just walk our way through this. Please could you work this through with me? You can shout out the answer if you like. The question is, which of these horizontal lines is longer? The answer is? Audience: The same.Eddie Obeng: The same. No, they're not the same. (Laughter) They're not the same. The top one is 10 percent longer than the bottom one. So why did you tell me they were the same? Do you remember when we were kids at school, about that big, they played the same trick on us? It was to teach us parallax. Do you remember? And you got, you said, "It's the same!" And you got it wrong. You remember? And you learned the answer, and you've carried this answer in your head for 10, 20, 30, 40 years: The answer is the same. The answer is the same. So when you're asked what the lengths are, you say they're the same, but they're not the same, because I've changed it.
那就是我之前所做的事。如果可以的話, 我想從一個小實驗開始,這是因為我搞的是商業, 所以我們應專注於產出結果。 但之後我遇到了困難,因為我想: 「我應該說什麼好? 我要做什麽啊? 那可是 TED 聽眾啊。 我一定要盡全力。到底該如何做才好?」 所以我僅希望我先搞定困難度。 所以讓我們透過這樣的方式。 你們可以和我一起做嗎? 如果可以,你可以大聲說出來。 我的問題是: 這些水平線,哪一條比較長? 答案是? 觀眾: 相同。Eddie Obeng: 相同。 不,他們不相同。(笑聲) 他們不一樣。最上方一條比最底部的一條長 10%。 那為什麼你跟我說它們是相同呢?你還記得當我們小時候在學校時 他們和我們玩的同樣遊戲嗎? 那遊戲是爲了教我們視差。你記得嗎? 然後你瞭解了,你說: 「這是相同的!」你搞錯了。 你還記得嗎? 你學到了答案,這答案在你腦海裡待了 10、20、30、40 年: 答案是相同。答案是相同。所以,當你們被問到長度多少時, 你們說它們等長,但它們不一樣長,因為其實我已改變它了。
And this is what I'm trying to explain has happened to us in the 21st century. Somebody or something has changed the rules about how our world works. When I'm joking, I try and explain it happened at midnight, you see, while we were asleep, but it was midnight 15 years ago. Okay? You didn't notice it? But basically, what they do is, they switched all the rules round, so that the way to successfully run a business, an organization, or even a country, has been deleted, flipped, and it's a completely new — you think I'm joking, don't you — there's a completely new set of rules in operation. (Laughter) Did you notice that? I mean, you missed this one. You probably — No, you didn't. Okay. (Laughter)
這就是我試圖解釋發生在我們在 21 世紀的事 某人或某事物已更改了 我們世界的工作法則 當我開玩笑時,我試著解釋它是發生在午夜, 你看,它發生在我們都睡著的時候,但是卻是在 15 年前的午夜。OK? 你沒有注意到它嗎? 但基本上,他們做的是, 他們撤換所有的規則,因此那些成功運作 商業、 組織、或甚至一個國家的方法 都被刪除、翻轉了,它變成全新的了。 — — 你認為我開玩笑,不是嗎 — — 有一套全新的操作規則。(笑聲) 你沒有注意到嗎?我的意思是,你錯過了這個。 你可能 — — 不,你沒有。OK。(笑聲)
My simple idea is that what's happened is, the real 21st century around us isn't so obvious to us, so instead we spend our time responding rationally to a world which we understand and recognize, but which no longer exists. You don't believe me, do you? Okay. (Applause)
我簡單的想法是,真正所發生的是, 我們真正所處的 21 世紀,事實上,對我們來說,並不那麼明顯, 所以即便我們理性地回應 一個我們理解並承認的世界, 但這樣的世界早已不存在了。 你不相信我,是嗎?好吧。(掌聲)
So let me take you on a little journey of many of the things I don't understand. If you search Amazon for the word "creativity," you'll discover something like 90,000 books. If you go on Google and you look for "innovation + creativity," you get 30 million hits. If you add the word "consultants," it doubles to 60 million. (Laughter) Are you with me? And yet, statistically, what you discover is that about one in 100,000 ideas is found making money or delivering benefits two years after its inception. It makes no sense. Companies make their expensive executives spend ages carefully preparing forecasts and budgets which are obsolete or need changing before they can be published.
讓我帶你經歷一個小旅程,一個關於我所不理解的小旅程。 如果你在在亞馬遜網絡書店搜索「創意」一詞 你會發現有有大約九萬本書。 如果你去 Google 搜索「創新 + 創意」 你會得到三千萬個相關網頁。如果你添加「顧問」一詞,會翻到六千萬。(笑聲) 有跟上我嗎? 但,根據統計,你會發現 只有十萬個想法中的一個可以賺到錢, 或在成立兩年後獲利。 它毫無意義。企業動用昂貴的經理人 花一堆時間精心準備預測和預算, 而這些預測和預算在出版前就已經過時或需要更改。
How is that possible? If you look at the visions we have, the visions of how we're going to change the world, the key thing is implementation. We have the vision. We've got to make it happen. We've spent decades professionalizing implementation. People are supposed to be good at making stuff happen. However, if I use as an example a family of five going on holiday, if you can imagine this, all the way from London all the way across to Hong Kong, what I want you to think about is their budget is only 3,000 pounds of expenses. What actually happens is, if I compare this to the average real project, average real successful project, the family actually end up in Makassar, South Sulawesi, at a cost of 4,000 pounds, whilst leaving two of the children behind. (Laughter) What I'm trying to explain to you is, there are things which don't make sense to us.
怎麼會這樣呢? 如果你看看我們擁有的遠見, 看看我們想要改變世界的看法, 最關鍵的是執行力。我們有遠見, 我們得讓它發生。 我們花了幾十年把執行弄得專業化, 所以人們應該擅長讓這些事發生才對, 但,如果我用一個五口之家作為範例, 這家去度假,想像一下, 從倫敦用所有的方式抵達香港, 我要你們思考的是,他們只有三千英鎊的預算; 然而,實際發生的是,如果我把這個計劃 和一般來說真正成功的計劃作比較, 這一家人,事實上,最終會去 Makassar (印尼南蘇拉威西省) 度假 最後花費四千英鎊, 同時丟下兩個孩子不管。(笑聲) 我試圖向你解釋的是,其實,有些事不對勁。
It gets even worse than that. Let me just walk you through this one. This is a quote, and I'll just pick words out of it. It says -- I'll put on the voice -- "In summary, your Majesty, the failure to foresee the timing, extent and severity of the crisis was due to the lack of creativity and the number of bright minds," or something like that. This was a group of eminent economists apologizing to the Queen of England when she asked the question, "Why did no one tell us that the crisis was coming?" (Laughter) I'll never get my knighthood. I'll never get my knighthood. (Laughter) That's not the important point. The thing you have to remember is, these are eminent economists, some of the smartest people on the planet. Do you see the challenge? (Laughter)
它甚至會更糟,讓我說說另一個: 這是一段引述,我會從它裡頭挑出詞彙。 這是這麼說的 — — 讓我換個語氣— —「總之,女王陛下 未能預見這場危機的時間、 範圍、和嚴重性的原因 是由於缺乏創造力 和一些聰穎的頭腦」或其他什麽類似的東西。 這是一群知名經濟學家向英國女王的致歉詞 當她問: 「為什麼之前沒人告訴我們這場危機會來?」(笑聲) 我再也得不到我的爵位了,我再也得不到我的爵位了。(笑聲) 這不是重點。你們要記住的是, 這些都是知名的經濟學家。全球最聰明的經濟學家。 你們看到挑戰了嗎?(笑聲)
It's scary. My friend and mentor, Tim Brown of IDEO, he explains that design must get big, and he's right. He wisely explains this to us. He says design thinking must tackle big systems for the challenges we have. He's absolutely right. And then I ask myself, "Why was it ever small?" Isn't it weird? You know, if collaboration is so cool, is cross-functional working is so amazing, why did we build these huge hierarchies? What's going on? You see, I think what's happened, perhaps, is that we've not noticed that change I described earlier.
這很可怕。我的朋友和導師,IDEO 的 Tim Brown 他解釋說設計要大,他是對的。 他聰明地向我們解釋這個。他說,設計思維 必須處理大系統為我們帶來的挑戰。 他是絕對正確的。 然後我問自己:「那為什麼是以往它都是小的?」 這難道不奇怪嗎? 你知道,如果合作是很酷的事, 如果跨領域工作是很棒的事, 那為什麼我們蓋了這些巨大的等級結構? 這是怎麼回事? 你看,我認為這或許是 我們沒有注意到我之前所說的改變。
What we do know is that the world has accelerated. Cyberspace moves everything at the speed of light. Technology accelerates things exponentially. So if this is now, and that's the past, and we start thinking about change, you know, all governments are seeking change, you're here seeking change, everybody's after change, it's really cool. (Laughter) So what happens is, we get this wonderful whooshing acceleration and change. The speed is accelerating. That's not the only thing. At the same time, as we've done that, we've done something really weird. We've doubled the population in 40 years, put half of them in cities, then connected them all up so they can interact. The density of the interaction of human beings is amazing. There are charts which show all these movements of information. That density of information is amazing. And then we've done a third thing. you know, for those of you who have as an office a little desk underneath the stairs, and you say, well this is my little desk under the stairs, no! You are sitting at the headquarters of a global corporation if you're connected to the Internet. What's happened is, we've changed the scale. Size and scale are no longer the same. And then add to that, every time you tweet, over a third of your followers follow from a country which is not your own.
我們的確知道什麼加速了世界的運轉, 網路空間讓一切以光速移動, 科技讓一切以指數的速度增長, 因此,如果這是現在,而那是過去, 我們會開始思考改變,你知道, 所有各國的政府都正在尋求改變,你們也在這裡尋求改變, 每個人都在追求改變,這真的好酷。(笑聲) 所以情況是,我們得到這些絕妙又風馳電掣的改變, 速度正在加快,但這不是唯一的發生的事, 同時,就像我們已經做的,我們已做了一些很奇怪的事情。 我們在 40 年內使人口翻了兩倍, 將其中一半放在城市裡,接著將他們聯繫在一起,由此一來,他們可以互動。 人類互動的密度是很驚人的, 這些圖表顯示所有這些運動的資訊,該資訊的密度是驚人的, 然後我們成就了第三件事: 你知道,對於那些已有個辦公室 在樓梯底有小書桌的人,你說,嗯,這是我樓梯下的小桌, 不!如果你連上網,你就正坐在跨國公司的總部。 原因是,我們已經改變了規模。 大小和規模不再相同了。 然後,每次當你 tweet, 有超過三分之一你的追隨者 不和你是同一個國家。
Global is the new scale. We know that. And so people say things like, "The world is now a turbulent place." Have you heard them saying things like that? And they use it as a metaphor. Have you come across this?
全球是新的規模,我們都知道這一點。 所以當人們說: 「世界現在是個紊亂而動盪的地方。」你真有聽到他們這樣說嗎? 他們這麼說是一種比喻。你有碰過這種事嗎?
And they think it's a metaphor, but this is not a metaphor. It's reality. As a young engineering student, I remember going to a demonstration where they basically, the demonstrator did something quite intriguing. What he did was, he got a transparent pipe — have you seen this demonstration before? — he attached it to a tap. So effectively what you had was, you had a situation where — I'll try and draw the tap and the pipe, actually I'll skip the tap. The taps are hard. Okay? So I'll write the word "tap." Is that okay? It's a tap. (Laughter) Okay, so he attaches it to a transparent pipe, and he turns the water on. And he says, do you notice anything? And the water is whooshing down this pipe. I mean, this is not exciting stuff. Are you with me? So the water goes up. He turns it back down. Great. And he says, "Anything you notice?" No. Then he sticks a needle into the pipe, and he connects this to a container, and he fills the container up with green ink. You with me? So guess what happens? A thin green line comes out as it flows down the pipe. It's not that interesting. And then he turns the water up a bit, so it starts coming back in. And nothing changes. So he's changing the flow of the water, but it's just a boring green line. He adds some more. He adds some more. And then something weird happens. There's this little flicker, and then as he turns it ever so slightly more, the whole of that green line disappears, and instead there are these little sort of inky dust devils close to the needle. They're called eddies. Not me. And they're violently dispersing the ink so that it actually gets diluted out, and the color's gone.
而且他們認為這是一個比喻,然而這卻不是一種比喻, 它就是現實。作為一個年輕的工程學生,我記得 我曾經參加一個教學示範,在那裡,基本上 示範者做了一件頗耐人尋味的事, 他所做的是,他得到一個透明的水管— — 你之前見過這種實地示範嗎? — 他把它安裝在一個水龍頭上,所以你過去的情況是 你過去的情況是— — 我試著畫水龍頭和水管, 事實上,我想跳過水龍頭。水龍頭好難。 好吧? 所以我寫「水龍頭」。這樣好嗎? 它是自來水。(笑聲) 好,所以他安裝上一個透明的水管,他打開水, 然後他說,你注意到什麼嗎? 水迅速流下這水管。 我的意思是,這不是令人興奮的東西。你有跟上嗎? 於是,水會上升,他把它堵回去。很棒。 他說: 「你注意到什麽了嗎?」沒有,他將一針戳近水管 他把這連到一個容器,接著他用綠色墨水 填滿容器。你有跟上我嗎? 所以你猜接下來會發生什麼情況? 一條細細的綠線出來了, 沿著管道流動,這不是那麼有趣, 然後他水多調一點,於是它開始回來,並沒有任何變化。 所以他改變水流,但它是只是條無聊的綠線, 他加更多,他加更多,然後奇怪的事情發生了, 有個小小的閃爍,之後,當他再打開它多一點, 那綠線全部消失了,反而 有些小小的黑塵靠近針, 它們叫做旋渦,不是我,他們正在猛烈地分散墨水, 所以,它實際上獲得稀釋了,顏色也不見了。
What's happened in this world of pipe is somebody has flipped it. They've changed the rules from laminar to turbulent. All the rules are gone. In that environment, instantly, all the possibilities which turbulence brings are available, and it's not the same as laminar. And if we didn't have that green ink, you'd never notice.
在這個世界中的水管中所發生的是, 有人已翻轉它了,它們已經從層流到亂流,改變了規則。 所有的規則都沒了。在這樣的環境下,轉瞬間, 所有亂流帶來的可能性都存在了, 而且並不與層流相同。 如果我們沒有那個綠色的墨水,你永遠不會注意到它。
And I think this is our challenge, because somebody has actually increased — and it's probably you guys with all your tech and stuff — the speed, the scale and the density of interaction.
我想這就是我們面臨的挑戰,因為有人 事實上,增加了(這可能是你們這些搞科技的傢伙做的 ) 互動的速度、 規模、和密度。
Now how do we cope and deal with that? Well, we could just call it turbulence, or we could try and learn. Yes, learn, but I know you guys grew up in the days when there were actually these things called correct answers, because of the answer you gave me to the horizontal line puzzle, and you believe it will last forever. So I'll put a little line up here which represents learning, and that's how we used to do it. We could see things, understand them, take the time to put them into practice. Out here is the world. Now, what's happened to our pace of learning as the world has accelerated? Well, if you work for a corporation, you'll discover it's quite difficult to work on stuff which your boss doesn't approve of, isn't in the strategy, and anyway, you've got to go through your monthly meetings. If you work in an institution, one day you will get them to make that decision. And if you work in a market where people believe in cycles, it's even funnier, because you have to wait all the way for the cycle to fail before you go, "There's something wrong." You with me? So it's likely that the line, in terms of learning, is pretty flat. You with me? This point over here, the point at which the lines cross over, the pace of change overtakes the pace of learning, and for me, that is what I was describing when I was telling you about midnight.
現在我們應該如何處理它? 嗯,我們可以僅僅把它稱為動盪,或者,我們可以試著學習。 是的,學習,但,我知道你們在成長時 有一些實際上被稱為正確答案的東西, 因為你剛才給我的答案, 你相信它永遠適用。 所以,我在這裡拿這小線代表學習, 這是我們過去做事的方式。我們能瞭解事物, 理解它們,花點時間付諸實行, 在這之外是世界。現在,當世界的速率加快時, 我們學習的速度發生了什麽轉變? 嗯,如果你 為一間公司工作,你會發現,要做一件你上司不允許的事 是很困難的,這不是好策略, 而且不管怎麼說,你得參加每月的會議, 如果你在一個機構裡做事,有一天,你會讓他們作出這一決定。 如果你在一個市場裡做事,在那裡人們相信週期循環, 這甚至更有趣,因為你必須要一直等到 週期失敗前,你才會覺得「嘿,有些地方不對勁」你們有跟上嗎? 因此,很有可能地,學習的曲線是蠻平的。 你們懂嗎? 這點在這裡,該點 跨越了改變的速度 超越學習的速度 對我來說,這就是我剛剛所描述的 關於午夜的故事。
So what does it do to us? Well, it completely transforms what we have to do, many mistakes we make. We solve last year's problems without thinking about the future. If you try and think about it, the things you're solving now, what problems are they going to bring in the future? If you haven't understood the world you're living in, it's almost impossible to be absolutely certain that what you're going to deliver fits.
所以,它和我們有什麽關係? 嗯,它完全撤換了我們應該要做的事、 以及我們所犯的許多錯誤。我們解決去年的問題, 但沒有對未來思考。試想, 你現在在解決的事,它在未來會帶來什麽問題? 如果你還沒有理解你現在所處的世界, 你幾乎不可能提供絕對肯定的方案。
I'll give you an example, a quick one. Creativity and ideas, I mentioned that earlier. All the CEOs around me, my clients, they want innovation, so they seek innovation. They say to people, "Take risks and be creative!" But unfortunately the words get transformed as they travel through the air. Entering their ears, what they hear is, "Do crazy things and then I'll fire you." Why? (Laughter) Because — Why? Because in the old world, okay, in the old world, over here, getting stuff wrong was unacceptable. If you got something wrong, you'd failed. How should you be treated? Well, harshly, because you could have asked somebody who had experience. So we learned the answer and we carried this in our heads for 20, 30 years, are you with me? The answer is, don't do things which are different. And then suddenly we tell them to and it doesn't work. You see, in reality, there are two ways you can fail in our new world. One, you're doing something that you should follow a procedure to, and it's a very difficult thing, you're sloppy, you get it wrong. How should you be treated? You should probably be fired. On the other hand, you're doing something new, no one's ever done before, you get it completely wrong. How should you be treated? Well, free pizzas! You should be treated better than the people who succeed. It's called smart failure. Why? Because you can't put it on your C.V.
我舉一個例子,一個快速的例子: 創意和點子。 我剛才說到,我身邊所有的企業經理人和我的客戶都想創新, 所以他們尋求創新,他們跟人說: 「要冒險,要有創意!」 可惜說出來後,這些詞彙的意思變了, 當這些語詞進到耳裡,人們聽到的是:「去做瘋狂的事,不然我開除你。」為什麼會這樣?(笑聲)因為 — — 為什麼? 因為在舊的世界中,好吧,在舊的世界中, 在這裡,搞錯東西是不能被接受的。 如果你犯錯,你就失敗了。你會被如何處置? 嗯,這很苛刻,因為你本來可以詢問有經驗的人, 所以我們學會答案,然後這 20、30 年來我們腦袋裡硬塞著這些答案。你們懂嗎? 這個答案是: 不要做不尋常的事。 然後突然間我們告訴他們這已經不適用了。 你看,在現實中,有兩種方式,你會在我們新的世界中失敗: 一、 你做的是一種應當遵循某種程序的事,而它很困難, 你馬虎了事,你弄錯了。你會被如何處置? 你可能會被解雇。 另一方面,你做某些新的東西,一些從來沒人做過的事, 然後你完全搞錯了。你應該被如何對待? 嗯,免費比薩!你應該比那些已經成功的人獲得更好的回報。 這叫做聰明的失敗。為什麼? 因為你不能把這放在你履歷上。
So what I want to leave you, then, is with the explanation of why I actually traveled 60,000 miles from my desk. When I realized the power of this new world, I quit my safe teaching job, and set up a virtual business school, the first in the world, in order to teach people how to make this happen, and I used some of my learnings about some of the rules which I'd learned on myself. If you're interested, worldaftermidnight.com, you'll find out more, but I've applied them to myself for over a decade, and I'm still here, and I still have my house, and the most important thing is, I hope I've done enough to inject a little green ink into your lives, so that when you go away and you're making your next absolutely sensible and rational decision, you'll take some time to think, "Hmm, I wonder whether this also makes sense in our new world after midnight." Thank you very much. (Applause) Thank you, thank you. (Applause)
所以,我想告訴你們的是 解釋為什麼我從我的書桌走了 60, 000 英里長的路。 當我意識到這個新世界的力量, 我辭去我安穩的教學工作,然後成立一個虛擬的商學院, 它是世上第一個學院教人如何使這發生, 我使用了一些從自己身上學到的知識原則, 如果你有興趣,你會在 worldaftermidnight.com (在半夜後的世界) 發掘更多。 但我應用這些原則在自己身上超過十年了, 我仍然在這,我仍然保有我的房子。最重要的事是, 我希望為你們的生活注入一點綠色墨水 所以,當你離開,你會在將來 做出絕對合理和理智的決定,你會花一些時間去思考: 「嗯,我想知道是否在午夜後的新世界, 這一切會有意義。」謝謝。 (掌聲) 謝謝,謝謝。(掌聲)