Over the past six months, I've spent my time traveling. I think I've done 60,000 miles, but without leaving my desk. And the reason I can do that is because I'm actually two people. I look like one person but I'm two people. I'm Eddie who is here, and at the same time, my alter ego is a big green boxy avatar nicknamed Cyber Frank.
Za poslednjih šest meseci, provodio sam vreme putujući. Mislim da sam prešao oko 60.000 kilometara, a da se nisam pomerio od stola. Razlog zašto sam mogao da uradim to je jer sam ja u stvari dve osobe. Izgledam kao jedna ali sam u stvari dve. Ja sam Edi koji je ovde, i u isto vreme, moj alter ego je veliki, zeleni, kockasti avatar sa nadimkom Cyber Frenk.
So that's what I spend my time doing. I'd like to start, if it's possible, with a test, because I do business stuff, so it's important that we focus on outcomes. And then I struggled, because I was thinking to myself, "What should I talk? What should I do? It's a TED audience. It's got to be stretching. How am I going to make — ?" So I just hope I've got the level of difficulty right. So let's just walk our way through this. Please could you work this through with me? You can shout out the answer if you like. The question is, which of these horizontal lines is longer? The answer is? Audience: The same.Eddie Obeng: The same. No, they're not the same. (Laughter) They're not the same. The top one is 10 percent longer than the bottom one. So why did you tell me they were the same? Do you remember when we were kids at school, about that big, they played the same trick on us? It was to teach us parallax. Do you remember? And you got, you said, "It's the same!" And you got it wrong. You remember? And you learned the answer, and you've carried this answer in your head for 10, 20, 30, 40 years: The answer is the same. The answer is the same. So when you're asked what the lengths are, you say they're the same, but they're not the same, because I've changed it.
Dakle tako ja provodim svoje vreme. Voleo bih da počnem, ako je moguće, sa testom, jer se ja bavim poslovnim stvarima, dakle važno je da se fokusiramo na rezultate. I u tom trenutku sam se pomučio, jer sam mislio: "O čemu da pričam? Šta da radim? Ovo je TED publika. biće rastegnuto. Kako da ...?" Tako da se samo nadam da sam pogodio nivo težine. Dakle hajde da prođemo kroz ovo. Da li bi ste mi pravili društvo? Možete da vičete odgovore ako želite. Pitanje je, koja je od ove dve horizontalne linije duža? Odgovor je? Publika: Iste su. Edi Obeng: Iste. Ne, nisu iste. Nisu iste. Gornja je 10 procenata duža od donje. Dakle zasto ste mi rekli da su iste? Da li se sećate kada smo bili deca u školi, otprilike ovoliki, kada su nam pokazali isti trik? Tada su želeli da nas nauče optičkim iluzijama, da li se sećate? I rekli ste: "Iste su!". I pogrešili ste. Sećate se? I naučili ste odgovor i nosili ste ga u svojoj glavi 10, 20, 30, 40 godina: odgovor je "iste". Odgovor je "iste". Dakle kada vas pitaju koje su dužine, vi kažete iste su, ali nisu iste, jer sam ih ja promenio.
And this is what I'm trying to explain has happened to us in the 21st century. Somebody or something has changed the rules about how our world works. When I'm joking, I try and explain it happened at midnight, you see, while we were asleep, but it was midnight 15 years ago. Okay? You didn't notice it? But basically, what they do is, they switched all the rules round, so that the way to successfully run a business, an organization, or even a country, has been deleted, flipped, and it's a completely new — you think I'm joking, don't you — there's a completely new set of rules in operation. (Laughter) Did you notice that? I mean, you missed this one. You probably — No, you didn't. Okay. (Laughter)
I to je ono što pokušavam da objasnim da nam se dešava u 21. veku. Neko ili nešto je promenilo pravila kojima naš svet funkcioniše. Kada se šalim, pokušavam da objasnim da se desilo u ponoć, dok smo svi spavali i to je bila ponoć pre 15 godina, ok? Niste primetili? Ali ono što su uradili, je da su promenili pravila, tako da je način za uspešno vođenje biznisa ili organizacije ili čak zemlje obrisan, okrenut i kompletno nov ... mislite da se šalim, zar ne? Postoje potpuno nova pravila. Niste primetili to? Propustili ste to. Verovatno ste... Niste... ok. (Smeh)
My simple idea is that what's happened is, the real 21st century around us isn't so obvious to us, so instead we spend our time responding rationally to a world which we understand and recognize, but which no longer exists. You don't believe me, do you? Okay. (Applause)
Prosta ideja je da to što se dogodilo, pravi 21. vek oko nas nije nam očigledan, umesto toga provodimo vreme reagujući racionalno na svet koji razumemo i poznajemo, ali koji više ne postoji. Ne verujete mi? Ok. (Aplauz)
So let me take you on a little journey of many of the things I don't understand. If you search Amazon for the word "creativity," you'll discover something like 90,000 books. If you go on Google and you look for "innovation + creativity," you get 30 million hits. If you add the word "consultants," it doubles to 60 million. (Laughter) Are you with me? And yet, statistically, what you discover is that about one in 100,000 ideas is found making money or delivering benefits two years after its inception. It makes no sense. Companies make their expensive executives spend ages carefully preparing forecasts and budgets which are obsolete or need changing before they can be published.
Dozvolite mi da vas povedem na malo putovanje u vezi sa jednom od stvari koju ne razumem. Ako potražite na Amazonu reč "kreativnost" naći ćete oko 90.000 knjiga. Ako odete na Google i potražite "inovacija + kreativnost", dobićete 30 miliona stranica. Ako dodate i reč "konsultanti", duplira se na 60 miliona. Pratite me? Ali opet, statistički otkrili ste da je jedna od 100.000 ideja za pravljenje novca uspešna ili daje rezultate dve godine od lansiranja. To nema smisla. Kompanije teraju svoje skupo plaćene direktore da provode godine spremajući precizna predviđanja i budžete koji su zastareli ili bi trebalo da se menjaju pre nego što su objavljeni.
How is that possible? If you look at the visions we have, the visions of how we're going to change the world, the key thing is implementation. We have the vision. We've got to make it happen. We've spent decades professionalizing implementation. People are supposed to be good at making stuff happen. However, if I use as an example a family of five going on holiday, if you can imagine this, all the way from London all the way across to Hong Kong, what I want you to think about is their budget is only 3,000 pounds of expenses. What actually happens is, if I compare this to the average real project, average real successful project, the family actually end up in Makassar, South Sulawesi, at a cost of 4,000 pounds, whilst leaving two of the children behind. (Laughter) What I'm trying to explain to you is, there are things which don't make sense to us.
Kako je to moguće? Ako uzmete viziju koju imamo, viziju kako ćemo promeniti svet, ključ je implementacija. Imamo viziju. Samo treba da je ostvarimo. Proveli smo decenije usavršavajući implementaciju. Ljudi bi trebalo da su dobri u ostvarivanju ideja. Ali, ako za primer uzmemo petočlanu porodicu koja putuje na odmor, ako možete da zamislite ovo, iz Londona skroz do Hong Konga, razmislite o tome da je njihov budžet samo 3.000 funti. Ono šta bi se zaista dogodilo, ako uporedimo sa prosečnim projektom, prosečnim uspešnim projektom, porodica će završiti u Makasaru, južnom Sulaveziju, po ceni od 4.000 funti, dok je dvoje dece ostalo u Londonu. (Smeh) Ono što pokušavam da vam objasnim, postoje stvari koje nama nemaju smisla.
It gets even worse than that. Let me just walk you through this one. This is a quote, and I'll just pick words out of it. It says -- I'll put on the voice -- "In summary, your Majesty, the failure to foresee the timing, extent and severity of the crisis was due to the lack of creativity and the number of bright minds," or something like that. This was a group of eminent economists apologizing to the Queen of England when she asked the question, "Why did no one tell us that the crisis was coming?" (Laughter) I'll never get my knighthood. I'll never get my knighthood. (Laughter) That's not the important point. The thing you have to remember is, these are eminent economists, some of the smartest people on the planet. Do you see the challenge? (Laughter)
Postoje i gori primeri. Pokazaću vam ovaj. Ovo je citat i ja ću ga parafrazirati. On kaže - iskoristiću glas: "U suštini, vaše veličanstvo, neuspeh da se predvidi pravo vreme, raspon i jačina krize je posledica nedostatka kreativnosti i broja bistrih umova" ili nešto tako. Ovo je bila grupa priznatih ekonomista koji se izvinjavaju Kraljici Engleske kada je ona pitala: "Zašto nam niko nije rekao da kriza dolazi?" (Smeh) Nikada neću biti proglašen za viteza. (Smeh) To nije važna stvar. Ono što morate da zapamtite je, ovo su priznati ekonomisti, neki od najpametnijih ljudi na planeti. Vidite izazov? (Smeh)
It's scary. My friend and mentor, Tim Brown of IDEO, he explains that design must get big, and he's right. He wisely explains this to us. He says design thinking must tackle big systems for the challenges we have. He's absolutely right. And then I ask myself, "Why was it ever small?" Isn't it weird? You know, if collaboration is so cool, is cross-functional working is so amazing, why did we build these huge hierarchies? What's going on? You see, I think what's happened, perhaps, is that we've not noticed that change I described earlier.
Strašno je. Moj prijatelj i mentor, Tim Braun iz IDEO, je objasnio da dizajn mora postati veliki i u pravu je. Pametno nam je ovo opisao. Rekao je da plansko razmišljanje mora iskoristiti velike sisteme za izazove na koje nailazimo. Potpuno je u pravu. I onda se zapitam: "Zašto je ikada bio mali?" Zar nije čudno? Ako je saradnja tako kul, ako je unakrsna funkcionalnost tako dobra, zašto smo izgradili ove ogromne hijerarhije? Šta se događa? Vidite, mislim da je ono što se možda dogodilo, to da nismo primetili promene koje sam opisao ranije.
What we do know is that the world has accelerated. Cyberspace moves everything at the speed of light. Technology accelerates things exponentially. So if this is now, and that's the past, and we start thinking about change, you know, all governments are seeking change, you're here seeking change, everybody's after change, it's really cool. (Laughter) So what happens is, we get this wonderful whooshing acceleration and change. The speed is accelerating. That's not the only thing. At the same time, as we've done that, we've done something really weird. We've doubled the population in 40 years, put half of them in cities, then connected them all up so they can interact. The density of the interaction of human beings is amazing. There are charts which show all these movements of information. That density of information is amazing. And then we've done a third thing. you know, for those of you who have as an office a little desk underneath the stairs, and you say, well this is my little desk under the stairs, no! You are sitting at the headquarters of a global corporation if you're connected to the Internet. What's happened is, we've changed the scale. Size and scale are no longer the same. And then add to that, every time you tweet, over a third of your followers follow from a country which is not your own.
Ono što znamo je da se svet ubrzao. Sajber svemir pomera sve brzinom svetlosti. Tehnologija ubrzava stvari eksponencijalno. Ako se ovo dešava sada, a to je prošlost i mi počinjemo da mislimo o promenama, znate, sve vlade traže promene, vi ste ovde tražeći promene, svi žele promene i to je kul. (Smeh) Dakle ono što se događa je da smo dobili ovo neverovatno ubrzanje i promenu. I brzina se povećava. I to nije jedina stvar. U isto vreme, dok se to događa, uradili smo nešto sasvim čudno. Duplirali smo populaciju za poslednjih 40 godina stavili polovinu njih u gradove i onda ih povezali da mogu da sarađuju. Količina ljudske interakcije je neverovatna. Postoje grafikoni koji pokazuju razmenu informacija. Količina informacija je neverovatna. I onda smo uradili treću stvar. Znate, za one od vas koji kao kancelariju imaju mali sto ispod stepenica i vi kažete: "Ovo je moj mali sto ispod stepenica", ne! Vi sedite u predstavništvu globalne korporacije ako ste povezani na internet. Ono što se dogodilo je da smo promenili razmeru. Veličina i razmera više nisu iste. I onda dodajte na to svaki put kada napišete tvit, više od trećine ljudi koji vas prate nisu iz vaše zemlje.
Global is the new scale. We know that. And so people say things like, "The world is now a turbulent place." Have you heard them saying things like that? And they use it as a metaphor. Have you come across this?
Globalno je nova razmera. Znamo to. I ljudi govore stvari kao: "Svet je trenutno turbulentno mesto." Da li ste čuli da govore to? I koriste to kao metaforu. Jeste li se susreli sa tim?
And they think it's a metaphor, but this is not a metaphor. It's reality. As a young engineering student, I remember going to a demonstration where they basically, the demonstrator did something quite intriguing. What he did was, he got a transparent pipe — have you seen this demonstration before? — he attached it to a tap. So effectively what you had was, you had a situation where — I'll try and draw the tap and the pipe, actually I'll skip the tap. The taps are hard. Okay? So I'll write the word "tap." Is that okay? It's a tap. (Laughter) Okay, so he attaches it to a transparent pipe, and he turns the water on. And he says, do you notice anything? And the water is whooshing down this pipe. I mean, this is not exciting stuff. Are you with me? So the water goes up. He turns it back down. Great. And he says, "Anything you notice?" No. Then he sticks a needle into the pipe, and he connects this to a container, and he fills the container up with green ink. You with me? So guess what happens? A thin green line comes out as it flows down the pipe. It's not that interesting. And then he turns the water up a bit, so it starts coming back in. And nothing changes. So he's changing the flow of the water, but it's just a boring green line. He adds some more. He adds some more. And then something weird happens. There's this little flicker, and then as he turns it ever so slightly more, the whole of that green line disappears, and instead there are these little sort of inky dust devils close to the needle. They're called eddies. Not me. And they're violently dispersing the ink so that it actually gets diluted out, and the color's gone.
I oni misle da je metafora, ali nije. To je stvarnost, kao student inženjerstva sećam se demonstracije gde je profesor uradio nesto interesantno. Uzeo je providnu cev, jeste li videli ovu demonstraciju ranije? Povezao je na slavinu, tako da bukvalno ono što ste dobili je situacija gde... pokušaću da nacrtam slavinu i cev, u stvari preskočiću slavinu. Slavine su teške. Ok? Napisaću reč "slavina". Da li je to ok? To je slavina. Dakle povezao je providnu cev i pustio vodu. Rekao je: "Da li primećujete šta se dešava?" Sva voda se sliva niz cev. Ovo nije uzbudljiva stvar. Da li me pratite? Dakle voda teče. Potom je ugasio. Odlično. Rekao je: "Da li ste primetili bilo šta?" Ne. Potom je zabio iglu u cev i povezao je na posudu koju je napunio zelenim mastilom. Pratite me? Pogađate šta se dogodilo? Tanka zelena linija se pojavila kako je mastilo teklo niz cev. Nije tako interesantno. Onda je pojačao protok vode i ništa se nije promenilo. Dakle pojačao je protok vode, ali to je samo dosadna zelena linija. Pojačao je još i još. I tada se nesto čudno dogodilo. Pojavilo se malo pomeranje, onda je povećao protok još više, cela zelena linija je nestala, umesto nje pojavili su se mali zeleni vrtlozi u blizini igle zovu se vrtlozi (eddies). Ne ja. I raspršuju mastilo tako da bude rastvoreno u vodi i boja nestane.
What's happened in this world of pipe is somebody has flipped it. They've changed the rules from laminar to turbulent. All the rules are gone. In that environment, instantly, all the possibilities which turbulence brings are available, and it's not the same as laminar. And if we didn't have that green ink, you'd never notice.
Ono što se desilo u ovom svetu cevi je da je neko promenio pravila sa mirnih na turbulentna. Sva pravila su nestala. U toj sredini trenutno, sve mogućnosti koje turbulencija donosi su dostupne, i potpuno su različite od mirnih. I da nemamo zeleno mastilo, nikada ne biste primetili.
And I think this is our challenge, because somebody has actually increased — and it's probably you guys with all your tech and stuff — the speed, the scale and the density of interaction.
I mislim da je upravo to naš izazov, jer je neko povećao - i verovatno ste to vi sa vašom tehnologijom - brzinu, razmeru i gustinu interakcije.
Now how do we cope and deal with that? Well, we could just call it turbulence, or we could try and learn. Yes, learn, but I know you guys grew up in the days when there were actually these things called correct answers, because of the answer you gave me to the horizontal line puzzle, and you believe it will last forever. So I'll put a little line up here which represents learning, and that's how we used to do it. We could see things, understand them, take the time to put them into practice. Out here is the world. Now, what's happened to our pace of learning as the world has accelerated? Well, if you work for a corporation, you'll discover it's quite difficult to work on stuff which your boss doesn't approve of, isn't in the strategy, and anyway, you've got to go through your monthly meetings. If you work in an institution, one day you will get them to make that decision. And if you work in a market where people believe in cycles, it's even funnier, because you have to wait all the way for the cycle to fail before you go, "There's something wrong." You with me? So it's likely that the line, in terms of learning, is pretty flat. You with me? This point over here, the point at which the lines cross over, the pace of change overtakes the pace of learning, and for me, that is what I was describing when I was telling you about midnight.
Kako možemo da se borimo sa tim? Pa možemo samo to zvati turbulencijom ili možemo da učimo iz toga. Da, učimo, ali znam da ste vi odrasli u ono vreme kada su postojale te stvari zvane tačni odgovori, zbog odgovora koji ste mi dali na zagonetku o horizontalnoj liniji i vi verujete da će trajati zauvek. Dakle, nacrtaću linuju koja predstavlja učenje. i kako smo to radili ranije. Mogli smo da vidimo stvari, da ih razumemo, bez žurbe ih primenimo u praksi. Ovde je svet. Sada, šta se dogodilo sa našim tempom učenja kako je svet ubrzao? Pa ako vi radite za korporaciju, naučićete da je teško raditi na stvarima koje vaš šef ne podržava, nisu deo strategije, i svakako, prošli ste kroz svoje mesečne sastanke. Ako radite u instituciji, jednog dana ćete ih naterati da dođu do odluke. A ako radite u tržištu u kom ljudi veruju u cikluse, još je smešnije, jer morate da čekate da taj ciklus propadne pre nego kažete: "Nešto nije u redu." Pratite me? Dakle verovatno je da je linija, u smislu učenja, prilično ravna. Pratite me? U Ovoj tački ovde, tački u kojoj se linije sreću, brzina promene prevazilazi brzinu učenja, i za mene, to je ono na šta sam mislio kada sam vam pričao o ponoći.
So what does it do to us? Well, it completely transforms what we have to do, many mistakes we make. We solve last year's problems without thinking about the future. If you try and think about it, the things you're solving now, what problems are they going to bring in the future? If you haven't understood the world you're living in, it's almost impossible to be absolutely certain that what you're going to deliver fits.
Dakle kako to utiče na nas? Pa kompletno transformiše ono što moramo da uradimo, pravimo mnogo grešaka. Rešavamo probleme prošlih godina bez razmišljanja o budućnosti. Ako pokušamo da razmislimo o tome problemi koje rešavamo sada, do kojih problema će oni dovesti u budućnosti? Ako niste razumeli svet u kom živite, skoro je nemoguće biti potpuno siguran da ono što ćete uraditi odgovara problemu.
I'll give you an example, a quick one. Creativity and ideas, I mentioned that earlier. All the CEOs around me, my clients, they want innovation, so they seek innovation. They say to people, "Take risks and be creative!" But unfortunately the words get transformed as they travel through the air. Entering their ears, what they hear is, "Do crazy things and then I'll fire you." Why? (Laughter) Because — Why? Because in the old world, okay, in the old world, over here, getting stuff wrong was unacceptable. If you got something wrong, you'd failed. How should you be treated? Well, harshly, because you could have asked somebody who had experience. So we learned the answer and we carried this in our heads for 20, 30 years, are you with me? The answer is, don't do things which are different. And then suddenly we tell them to and it doesn't work. You see, in reality, there are two ways you can fail in our new world. One, you're doing something that you should follow a procedure to, and it's a very difficult thing, you're sloppy, you get it wrong. How should you be treated? You should probably be fired. On the other hand, you're doing something new, no one's ever done before, you get it completely wrong. How should you be treated? Well, free pizzas! You should be treated better than the people who succeed. It's called smart failure. Why? Because you can't put it on your C.V.
Daću vam kratak primer. Kreativnost i ideje, pomenuo sam ovo ranije. Svi direktori oko mene, moji klijenti žele inovaciju, tako da traže inovaciju. Kažu ljudima: "Rizikujte i budite kreativni!" Ali na žalost reči budu transformisane kako putuju. Kada dođu do ljudi, ono što čuju je: "Uradi nešto ludo i otpustićemo te." Zašto? (Smeh) Zašto? Jer u starom svetu, OK, u starom svetu, ovde, činiti pogrešne stvari je neprihvatljivo. Ako bi pogrešio, doživeo bi neuspeh. Kako bi trebalo da se ponašaju prema tebi? Pa, grubo, jer je trebalo da pitaš nekoga ko ima iskustva. Dakle naučili smo odgovor i nosili ga u našim glavama 20, 30 godina. Pratite me? Odgovor je: "Ne radi stvari koje su različite." I onda odjedanput kažemo im da to ne radi. Vidite, u stvarnosti, postoje dva načina da ne uspete u novom svetu. Jedan je, radite nešto u čemu bi trebalo da pratite proceduru i to je teška stvar, neuredni ste, pogrešite. Kako bi trebalo da se ophode prema vama? Verovatno bi trebalo da vas otpuste. U drugu ruku, radite nešto novo, nešto što niko nije radio ranije, potpuno pogrešite. Kako bi trebalo da se odnose? Pa, besplantna pica! Trebalo bi da se odnose prema vama bolje od ljudi koji su uspeli. To se zove pametni neuspeh. Zašto? Jer ne možete da ga stavite u CV.
So what I want to leave you, then, is with the explanation of why I actually traveled 60,000 miles from my desk. When I realized the power of this new world, I quit my safe teaching job, and set up a virtual business school, the first in the world, in order to teach people how to make this happen, and I used some of my learnings about some of the rules which I'd learned on myself. If you're interested, worldaftermidnight.com, you'll find out more, but I've applied them to myself for over a decade, and I'm still here, and I still have my house, and the most important thing is, I hope I've done enough to inject a little green ink into your lives, so that when you go away and you're making your next absolutely sensible and rational decision, you'll take some time to think, "Hmm, I wonder whether this also makes sense in our new world after midnight." Thank you very much. (Applause) Thank you, thank you. (Applause)
Dakle ono sa čim želim da vas ostavim je objašnjenje zašto sam prešao preko 60.000 km sedeći za stolom. Kada sam shvatio snagu novog sveta, dao sam otkaz na svom poslu profesora i osnovao virtuelnu školu biznisa, prvu u svetu, da bih naučio ljude kako da to ostvare, iskoristio sam neka saznanja koja sam naučio na svojoj koži ako ste zainteresovani, worldaftermidnight.com, saznaćete više i primenio sam ih na sebi protekle decenije i još uvek sam ovde i još uvek imam svoju kuću i najvažnija stvar je, nadam se da sam uradio dovoljno da ubrizgam malo zelenog mastila u vaše živote, tako da kada odete i napravite svoju sledeću apsolutno razumnu i racionalnu odluku, odvojićete malo vremena da pomislite: "Hmm, pitam se da li ovo takođe ima smisla u našem novom svetu posle ponoći." Hvala vam puno. (Aplauz) Hvala, hvala. (Aplauz)