Over the past six months, I've spent my time traveling. I think I've done 60,000 miles, but without leaving my desk. And the reason I can do that is because I'm actually two people. I look like one person but I'm two people. I'm Eddie who is here, and at the same time, my alter ego is a big green boxy avatar nicknamed Cyber Frank.
U proteklih šest mjeseci, proveo sam vrijeme putujući. Mislim da sam prešao preko 96.000 km bez da sam napustio svoj stol. A razlog što sam to uspio jest da sam ja u stvari dvoje ljudi. Izgledam kao jedna osoba ali ja sam dvoje ljudi. Ja sam Eddie koji je ovdje, a u isto vrijeme, moj alter ego je veliki zeleni kockasti avatar pod nadimkom Cyber Frank.
So that's what I spend my time doing. I'd like to start, if it's possible, with a test, because I do business stuff, so it's important that we focus on outcomes. And then I struggled, because I was thinking to myself, "What should I talk? What should I do? It's a TED audience. It's got to be stretching. How am I going to make — ?" So I just hope I've got the level of difficulty right. So let's just walk our way through this. Please could you work this through with me? You can shout out the answer if you like. The question is, which of these horizontal lines is longer? The answer is? Audience: The same.Eddie Obeng: The same. No, they're not the same. (Laughter) They're not the same. The top one is 10 percent longer than the bottom one. So why did you tell me they were the same? Do you remember when we were kids at school, about that big, they played the same trick on us? It was to teach us parallax. Do you remember? And you got, you said, "It's the same!" And you got it wrong. You remember? And you learned the answer, and you've carried this answer in your head for 10, 20, 30, 40 years: The answer is the same. The answer is the same. So when you're asked what the lengths are, you say they're the same, but they're not the same, because I've changed it.
Dakle u to sam uložio svoje vrijeme. Želio bih početi, ako je moguće, s testom, jer ja se bavim poslovnim stvarima tako da je važno da se fokusiramo na rezultat. I u tom trenutku sam se krenuo mučiti, jer govorio sam sebi, "O čemu ću govoriti? Što ću napraviti? To je TED publika. Biti će napeto. Kako ću to napraviti --?" Dakle, nadam se da sam pogodio s razinom težine. Prođimo kroz to. Molim vas možete li proći kroz to sa mnom? Možete viknuti odgovor ako želite. Pitanje je, koja od ovih horizontalnih linija je duža? Odgovor je? Publika: Iste su. Eddie Obeng: Iste su. Ne, nisu iste. (Smijeh) Nisu iste. Gornja je 10 posto duža od donje. Dakle, zašto ste mi rekli da su iste? Sjećate se dok smo bili djeca u školi, otprilike ovoliko veliki, kada su nam pokazali isti trik? Tada su nas željeli naučiti optičkim iluzijama. Sjećate li se? I rekli ste, "Iste su!" I krivo ste rekli. Sjećate se? Naučili ste odgovor, i nosili ste taj odgovor u svojim glavama 10, 20, 30, 40 godina: Odgovor je isti. Odgovor je isti. Dakle kada vas pitaju kakve su dužine, vi kažete kako su iste, ali one nisu iste, jer sam ja to promijenio.
And this is what I'm trying to explain has happened to us in the 21st century. Somebody or something has changed the rules about how our world works. When I'm joking, I try and explain it happened at midnight, you see, while we were asleep, but it was midnight 15 years ago. Okay? You didn't notice it? But basically, what they do is, they switched all the rules round, so that the way to successfully run a business, an organization, or even a country, has been deleted, flipped, and it's a completely new — you think I'm joking, don't you — there's a completely new set of rules in operation. (Laughter) Did you notice that? I mean, you missed this one. You probably — No, you didn't. Okay. (Laughter)
I na taj način vam pokušavam objasniti što nam se dogodilo u 21. stoljeću. Netko ili nešto je promijenilo pravila kako naš svijet funkcionira. Kada se šalim, pokušavam objasniti da se to dogodilo u ponoć, vidite, dok smo spavali, ali to je bila ponoć prije 15 godina. Dobro? Niste primjetili? Ali u osnovi, ono što rade je, promijenili su sva pravila, tako je način za uspješno vođenje posla, organizacije ili čak države, obrisan, izmijenjen i potpuno nov -- mislite kako se šalim, zar ne -- postoji kompletno novi set pravila za djelovanje. (Smijeh) Jeste li to primjetili? Mislim, ovaj ste propustili. Vi vjerojatno -- Ne, niste. Dobro. (Smijeh)
My simple idea is that what's happened is, the real 21st century around us isn't so obvious to us, so instead we spend our time responding rationally to a world which we understand and recognize, but which no longer exists. You don't believe me, do you? Okay. (Applause)
Moja jednostavna ideja je da ono što se dogodilo, pravo 21. stoljeće nije nam toliko očigledno, tako trošimo vrijeme odgovarajući racionalno na svijet koji razumijemo i prepoznajemo, ali koji više ne postoji. Ne vjerujete mi, zar ne? Dobro. (Pljesak)
So let me take you on a little journey of many of the things I don't understand. If you search Amazon for the word "creativity," you'll discover something like 90,000 books. If you go on Google and you look for "innovation + creativity," you get 30 million hits. If you add the word "consultants," it doubles to 60 million. (Laughter) Are you with me? And yet, statistically, what you discover is that about one in 100,000 ideas is found making money or delivering benefits two years after its inception. It makes no sense. Companies make their expensive executives spend ages carefully preparing forecasts and budgets which are obsolete or need changing before they can be published.
Dopustite mi da vas odvedem na malo putovanje kroz mnogo stvari koje ne razumijem. Ako pretražite Amazon s riječju"kreativnost", pokazati će vam se nekih 90.000 knjiga. Ako odete na Google i potražite "inovacija + kreativnost" dobiti ćete 30 milijuna pogodaka. A ako dodate riječ "konzultanti", udvostruči se na 60 milijuna. (Smijeh) Jeste li sa mnom? I opet, statistički, ono što ćete otkriti je kako 1 od 100.000 ideja stvara novac ili isporučuje koristi dvije godine nakon svog početka. To nema smisla. Kompanije sile svoje skupe direktore da troše godine pažljivo pripremajući predviđanja i budžete koji su zastarjeli ili se nužno moraju mijenjati prije nego ih objave.
How is that possible? If you look at the visions we have, the visions of how we're going to change the world, the key thing is implementation. We have the vision. We've got to make it happen. We've spent decades professionalizing implementation. People are supposed to be good at making stuff happen. However, if I use as an example a family of five going on holiday, if you can imagine this, all the way from London all the way across to Hong Kong, what I want you to think about is their budget is only 3,000 pounds of expenses. What actually happens is, if I compare this to the average real project, average real successful project, the family actually end up in Makassar, South Sulawesi, at a cost of 4,000 pounds, whilst leaving two of the children behind. (Laughter) What I'm trying to explain to you is, there are things which don't make sense to us.
Kako je to moguće? Ako pogledate vizije koje imamo, vizije kako ćemo mijenjati svijet, ključna stvar je implementacija. Imamo viziju. Moramo osigurati da se dogodi. Proveli smo desetljeća u profesionalizaciji implementacije. Ljudi bi trebali biti dobri u tome da osiguraju da se stvari dogode. Kako bilo, ako uzmemo za primjer peteročlanu obitelj koja ide na praznike, ako to možete zamisliti, iz Londona skroz u Hong Kong, što ako je njihov budžet samo 3.000 funti. Ono što bi se zaista dogodilo, ako usporedimo s prosječnim stvarnim projektom, prosječnim stvarno uspješnim projektom, obitelj će završiti u Makassaru, južnom Sulawesiju, uz trošak od 4.000 funti, ostavivši dvoje djece u Londonu. (Smijeh) Ono što vam pokušavam objasniti, postoje stvari koje nemaju smisla.
It gets even worse than that. Let me just walk you through this one. This is a quote, and I'll just pick words out of it. It says -- I'll put on the voice -- "In summary, your Majesty, the failure to foresee the timing, extent and severity of the crisis was due to the lack of creativity and the number of bright minds," or something like that. This was a group of eminent economists apologizing to the Queen of England when she asked the question, "Why did no one tell us that the crisis was coming?" (Laughter) I'll never get my knighthood. I'll never get my knighthood. (Laughter) That's not the important point. The thing you have to remember is, these are eminent economists, some of the smartest people on the planet. Do you see the challenge? (Laughter)
Postoje i gori primjeri. Pokazati ću vam ovaj. Ovo je citat i ja ću ga parafrazirati. Kaže -- uključiti ću glas -- "Sažeto, vaše Veličanstvo, neuspjeh da se predvidi pravo vrijeme, opseg i ozbiljnost krize rezultat su nedostatka kreativnosti i broja pametnih ljudi", ili takvo nešto. Ova se grupa eminentnih ekonomista ispričava kraljici Engleske kada je ona postavila pitanje, "Zašto nam nitko nije rekao da kriza dolazi?" (Smijeh) Nikada neću dobiti viteštvo. Nikada neću postati vitez. (Smijeh) To nije važno. Ono što morate zapamtiti jest, to su eminentni ekonomisti, neki od najpametnijih ljudi na Planetu. Vidite li izazov? (Smijeh)
It's scary. My friend and mentor, Tim Brown of IDEO, he explains that design must get big, and he's right. He wisely explains this to us. He says design thinking must tackle big systems for the challenges we have. He's absolutely right. And then I ask myself, "Why was it ever small?" Isn't it weird? You know, if collaboration is so cool, is cross-functional working is so amazing, why did we build these huge hierarchies? What's going on? You see, I think what's happened, perhaps, is that we've not noticed that change I described earlier.
To je zastrašujuće. Moj prijatelj i mentor, Tim Brown iz IDEO-a, je objasnio da dizajn mora postati velik i bio je u pravu. On nam pametno objašnjava. On kaže kako dizajnersko promišljanje mora napasti velike sustave zbog izazova koje imamo. On je u potpunosti u pravu. I onda se ja zapitam, "Zašto je ikada uopće bio malen?" Zar to nije čudno? Znate, ako je suradnja tako sjajna, kros-funkcijski rad tako čudesan, zašto smo izgradili te hijerarhije? Što se to događa? Vidite, mislim da ono što se događa, možda, jest da nismo primjetili tu promjenu koju sam ranije opisao.
What we do know is that the world has accelerated. Cyberspace moves everything at the speed of light. Technology accelerates things exponentially. So if this is now, and that's the past, and we start thinking about change, you know, all governments are seeking change, you're here seeking change, everybody's after change, it's really cool. (Laughter) So what happens is, we get this wonderful whooshing acceleration and change. The speed is accelerating. That's not the only thing. At the same time, as we've done that, we've done something really weird. We've doubled the population in 40 years, put half of them in cities, then connected them all up so they can interact. The density of the interaction of human beings is amazing. There are charts which show all these movements of information. That density of information is amazing. And then we've done a third thing. you know, for those of you who have as an office a little desk underneath the stairs, and you say, well this is my little desk under the stairs, no! You are sitting at the headquarters of a global corporation if you're connected to the Internet. What's happened is, we've changed the scale. Size and scale are no longer the same. And then add to that, every time you tweet, over a third of your followers follow from a country which is not your own.
Ono što znamo jest da se svijet ubrzao. Cyber svemir pomiće sve brzinom svjetlosti. Tehnologija ubrzava stvari eksponencijalno. Ako je to sada, a to je prošlost, i mi počinjemo razmišljati o promjeni, znate, sve vlade traže promjenu, vi tražite promjenu, svi traže promjenu, to je stvarno sjajno. (Smijeh) Ono što se događa, jest da smo dobili to sjajno ubrzanje i promjenu. Brzina se ubrzava. Ali to nije jedina stvar. U isto vrijeme, dok smo to radili, napravili smo nešto stvarno čudno. Udvostručili smo populaciju u proteklih 40 godina, stavite ih polovicu u gradove, onda ih spojite tako da mogu surađivati. Količina interakcije ljudskih bića je čudesna. Postoje grafički prikazi svih tih kretanja informacija. Ta količina informacija je čudesna. I onda smo napravili treću stvar. Znate, za sve vas koji imate ured, mali stol ispod stepenica, i kažete, ovo je moj mali stol ispod stepenica, ne! Ako ste spojeni na Internet vi sjedite u središtima globalnih korporacija. Ono što se dogodilo jest da smo promijenili razmjer. Veličina i razmjer više nisu isti. I onda tome dodajte, svaki puta kada tweetate, preko trećine vaših sljedbenika vas prati iz zemlje koja nije vaša.
Global is the new scale. We know that. And so people say things like, "The world is now a turbulent place." Have you heard them saying things like that? And they use it as a metaphor. Have you come across this?
Globalno predstavlja novi razmjer. To znamo. I onda ljudi govore stvari poput, "Svijet danas je turbulentno mjesto." Jeste li čuli dok to govore? I to koriste kao metaforu. Jeste li se susreli s time?
And they think it's a metaphor, but this is not a metaphor. It's reality. As a young engineering student, I remember going to a demonstration where they basically, the demonstrator did something quite intriguing. What he did was, he got a transparent pipe — have you seen this demonstration before? — he attached it to a tap. So effectively what you had was, you had a situation where — I'll try and draw the tap and the pipe, actually I'll skip the tap. The taps are hard. Okay? So I'll write the word "tap." Is that okay? It's a tap. (Laughter) Okay, so he attaches it to a transparent pipe, and he turns the water on. And he says, do you notice anything? And the water is whooshing down this pipe. I mean, this is not exciting stuff. Are you with me? So the water goes up. He turns it back down. Great. And he says, "Anything you notice?" No. Then he sticks a needle into the pipe, and he connects this to a container, and he fills the container up with green ink. You with me? So guess what happens? A thin green line comes out as it flows down the pipe. It's not that interesting. And then he turns the water up a bit, so it starts coming back in. And nothing changes. So he's changing the flow of the water, but it's just a boring green line. He adds some more. He adds some more. And then something weird happens. There's this little flicker, and then as he turns it ever so slightly more, the whole of that green line disappears, and instead there are these little sort of inky dust devils close to the needle. They're called eddies. Not me. And they're violently dispersing the ink so that it actually gets diluted out, and the color's gone.
I oni misle kako je to metafora, ali to nije metafora. To je stvarnost. Dok sam bio mladi student inžinjerstva sjećam se da sam išao na vježbe gdje je u osnovi, profesor napravio nešto prilično intrigantno. Imao je prozirnu tubu -- jeste li vidjeli tu vježbu ranije? -- povezao je to sa slavinom. Dakle ono što smo dobili jest, imali smo tu situaciju ovdje -- pokušati ću to nacrtati, slavina i cijev, u stvari preskočiti ću slavinu. Cijevi su teške. Dobro? Tako da ću napisati riječ 'cijev'. Je li to u redu? Ovo je slavina. (smijeh) Dobro, dakle on poveže to s prozirnom cijevi, i otvori vodu. I kaže, primjećujete li nešto? A voda juri niz cijev. Mislim, to nije uzbudljivo. Jeste li sa mnom? Dakle voda ide gore. Ugasi je. Sjajno. I onda kaže, "Jeste li primjetili nešto?" Ne. I onda zabode iglu u cijev, i poveže je sa spremnikom, i napuni ga s zelenom tintom. Jeste li sa mnom? Pogodite što se dogodilo? Tanka zelena linija se pojavi dok ide niz cijev. To nije toliko interesantno. I onda ponovno pusti vodu. I ništa se ne mijenja. Dakle on mijenja tijek vode, ali to je samo dosadna zelena linija. On doda još malo vode. Doda još malo. I onda se nešto čudno dogodi. Pojavilo se malo pomicanje, i onda još poveća protok vode, da bi ta cijela zelena linija nestala, i umjesto toga se pojavljuju ti mali zeleni vrtlozi u blizini igle. Zovu se vrtlozi (eddies). Ne ja. I oni nasilno rastjeruju tintu dok ona ne nestane, i nema boje.
What's happened in this world of pipe is somebody has flipped it. They've changed the rules from laminar to turbulent. All the rules are gone. In that environment, instantly, all the possibilities which turbulence brings are available, and it's not the same as laminar. And if we didn't have that green ink, you'd never notice.
Ono što se događa u tom svijetu cijevi jest da je netko promjenio pravila. Promjenio je pravila iz mirnih u turbulentna. Sva pravila su nestala. U tom okruženju, odmah su sve mogućnosti koje turbulencija donosi dostupne, i potpuno su različite od mirnih. I da nismo imali tu zelenu tintu, ne bismo nikada primjetili.
And I think this is our challenge, because somebody has actually increased — and it's probably you guys with all your tech and stuff — the speed, the scale and the density of interaction.
I mislim da je to naš izazov, jer netko je stvarno povećao -- a to ste vjerojatno vi ljudi sa svom vašom tehnologijom -- brzinu, razmjer i količinu interakcija.
Now how do we cope and deal with that? Well, we could just call it turbulence, or we could try and learn. Yes, learn, but I know you guys grew up in the days when there were actually these things called correct answers, because of the answer you gave me to the horizontal line puzzle, and you believe it will last forever. So I'll put a little line up here which represents learning, and that's how we used to do it. We could see things, understand them, take the time to put them into practice. Out here is the world. Now, what's happened to our pace of learning as the world has accelerated? Well, if you work for a corporation, you'll discover it's quite difficult to work on stuff which your boss doesn't approve of, isn't in the strategy, and anyway, you've got to go through your monthly meetings. If you work in an institution, one day you will get them to make that decision. And if you work in a market where people believe in cycles, it's even funnier, because you have to wait all the way for the cycle to fail before you go, "There's something wrong." You with me? So it's likely that the line, in terms of learning, is pretty flat. You with me? This point over here, the point at which the lines cross over, the pace of change overtakes the pace of learning, and for me, that is what I was describing when I was telling you about midnight.
Kako se nositi s time? Možemo to jednostavno nazvati turbulentnošću, ili možemo nešto pokušati naučiti. Da, naučiti, ali ja znam kako ste vi odrasli u vremenima kada su postojale te stvari koje nazivamo točnim odgovorima zbog odgovora koji ste mi dali na onu zagonetku o horizontalnoj liniji i mislite da će trajati zauvijek. Tako ću staviti jednu liniju ovdje gore koja predstavlja učenje, i to je način na koji smo naučeni raditi. Mogli smo vidjeti stvari, razumijeti ih, uzeti si vrijeme i bez žurbe primjeniti ih u praksi. Ovdje vani je svijet. Ono što se dogodilo s našim tempom učenja jest da se svijet ubrzao? Ako radite za korporaciju, otkriti ćete kako je prilično teško raditi na stvarima koje vaš šef ne odobrava, koje nisu dio strategije i kako bilo, prolazite kroz svoje mjesečne sastanke. Ako radite u instituciji, jednog dana ćete ih prisiliti da donesu odluku I ako radite na tržištu na kojem ljudi vjeruju u cikluse, još je zabavnije, jer ćete morati čekati da ciklus zamre prije nego što krenete, "Tu je nešto pogrešno." Jeste li sa mnom? To je poput linije, u smislu učenja, prilično je ravno. Jeste li sa mnom? Ova točka ovdje, točka u kojoj se linije preklapaju, tempo promjena nadvladava tempo učenja, i za mene, to je ono što sam opisivao kada sam vam govorio o ponoći.
So what does it do to us? Well, it completely transforms what we have to do, many mistakes we make. We solve last year's problems without thinking about the future. If you try and think about it, the things you're solving now, what problems are they going to bring in the future? If you haven't understood the world you're living in, it's almost impossible to be absolutely certain that what you're going to deliver fits.
Dakle što nam to radi? Dakle, u potpunosti transformira ono što smo radili, mnoge greške koje smo napravili. Rješavamo prošlogodišnje probleme bez da razmišljamo o budućnosti. Ako pokušate o tome razmisliti, stvari koje sada rješavate, kakve probleme će one kreirati u budućnosti? Ako niste razumijeli svijet u kojem živite, gotovo je nevjerojatno biti apsolutno siguran da će ono što isporučujete pasati.
I'll give you an example, a quick one. Creativity and ideas, I mentioned that earlier. All the CEOs around me, my clients, they want innovation, so they seek innovation. They say to people, "Take risks and be creative!" But unfortunately the words get transformed as they travel through the air. Entering their ears, what they hear is, "Do crazy things and then I'll fire you." Why? (Laughter) Because — Why? Because in the old world, okay, in the old world, over here, getting stuff wrong was unacceptable. If you got something wrong, you'd failed. How should you be treated? Well, harshly, because you could have asked somebody who had experience. So we learned the answer and we carried this in our heads for 20, 30 years, are you with me? The answer is, don't do things which are different. And then suddenly we tell them to and it doesn't work. You see, in reality, there are two ways you can fail in our new world. One, you're doing something that you should follow a procedure to, and it's a very difficult thing, you're sloppy, you get it wrong. How should you be treated? You should probably be fired. On the other hand, you're doing something new, no one's ever done before, you get it completely wrong. How should you be treated? Well, free pizzas! You should be treated better than the people who succeed. It's called smart failure. Why? Because you can't put it on your C.V.
Dati ću vam primjer, jedan brzinski. Kreativnost i ideje, spomenuo sam to ranije. Svi izvršni direktori oko mene, moji klijenti, oni žele inovaciju, zato oni traže inovaciju. Govore ljudima, "Preuzmi rizik i budi kreativan!" Ali nažalost riječi se transformiraju dok putuju zrakom. Ulazeći u njihove uši, ono što oni čuju je, "Radi lude stvari i onda ću te otpustiti." Zašto? (Smijeh) Zašto? Jer u starom svijetu, dobro, u starom svijetu, ovdje, raditi stvari krivo bilo je neprihvatljivo. Ako ste napravili nešto krivo, to je bio neuspjeh. Kako bi se to trebalo tretirati? Dakle, grubo, jer ste mogli pitati nekoga tko ima iskustvo. Dakle naučili smo odgovor i nosimo ga u našim glavama 20, 30 godina, jeste li sa mnom? Odgovor je, ne radi stvari koje su drugačije. I onda im naglo kažemo da ih rade i to ne funkcionira. Vidite, u stvarnosti, postoje dva načina na koja možeš doživjeti neuspjeh u našem novom svijetu. Prvi, radiš nešto za što postoji procedura, i to je jako teška stvar, ti si traljav, napraviš to pogrešno. Kako bi se prema tebi trebalo ponašati? Vjerojatno bi te trebalo otpustiti. S druge strane, radiš nešto novo, nitko to prije tebe nije radio, napraviš to u potpunosti krivo. Kako bi se prema tebi trebalo ponašati? Besplatna pizza! Prema tebi bi se trebalo odnositi bolje nego prema onima koji su uspjeli. To se zove pametna greška. Zašto? Jer to ne možeš staviti u svoj CV.
So what I want to leave you, then, is with the explanation of why I actually traveled 60,000 miles from my desk. When I realized the power of this new world, I quit my safe teaching job, and set up a virtual business school, the first in the world, in order to teach people how to make this happen, and I used some of my learnings about some of the rules which I'd learned on myself. If you're interested, worldaftermidnight.com, you'll find out more, but I've applied them to myself for over a decade, and I'm still here, and I still have my house, and the most important thing is, I hope I've done enough to inject a little green ink into your lives, so that when you go away and you're making your next absolutely sensible and rational decision, you'll take some time to think, "Hmm, I wonder whether this also makes sense in our new world after midnight." Thank you very much. (Applause) Thank you, thank you. (Applause)
Dakle ono s čime vas želim ostaviti jest objašnjenje zašto sam proputovao preko 96.000 km s mog stola. Kada sam shvatio snagu tog novog svijeta, napustio sam siguran predavački posao, i postavio sam virtualnu poslovnu školu, prvu na svijetu, kako bi podučavao ljude da naprave stvari, i koristio sam neke spoznaje o nekim pravilima koje sam naučio na sebi. Ako vas zanima, na worldaftermidnight.com naći ćete više, ali primjenio sam ih na sebi kroz proteklo desetljeće, i još sam uvijek ovdje, i dalje imam kuću, i najvažnije nadam se da sam ubrizgao malo zelene tinte u vaše živote, tako da kada odete i kada ćete donositi svoju slijedeću apsolutno osjećajnu i racionalnu odluku, uzet će te si vremena da razmislite, ”Hmmmm, pitam se ima li ovo smisla u našem novom svijetu nakon ponoći." Hvala vam puno. (Pljesak) Hvala vam, hvala vam. (Pljesak)