If you tried to pay for something with a piece of paper, you might run into some trouble. Unless, of course, the piece of paper was a hundred dollar bill. But what is it that makes that bill so much more interesting and valuable than other pieces of paper? After all, there's not much you can do with it. You can't eat it. You can't build things with it. And burning it is actually illegal. So what's the big deal?
Ako pokušate da platite nešto parčetom papira, možete imati problema. Osim, naravno, kada bi to parče papira bilo novčanica od sto dolara. Ali šta je to što ovu novčanicu čini tako zanimljivijom i vrednijom od ostalog papira? Uostalom, ne možete mnogo da uradite sa njim. Ne možete da ga jedete. Ne možete da gradite stvari od njega. A spaljivanje je zapravo nezakonito. Pa, u čemu je stvar?
Of course, you probably know the answer. A hundred dollar bill is printed by the government and designated as official currency, while other pieces of paper are not. But that's just what makes them legal. What makes a hundred dollar bill valuable, on the other hand, is how many or few of them are around. Throughout history, most currency, including the US dollar, was linked to valuable commodities and the amount of it in circulation depended on a government's gold or silver reserves. But after the US abolished this system in 1971, the dollar became what is known as fiat money, meaning not linked to any external resource but relying instead solely on government policy to decide how much currency to print.
Naravno, verovatno znate odgovor. Novčanicu od sto dolara štampa vlada i ona predstavlja zvaničnu valutu, dok ostali papiri to nisu. Ali to je ono što ih čini legalnim. S druge strane, novčanicu od sto dolara čini vrednosnom to koliko ih je u opticaju. Kroz istoriju, većina valuta, uključujući i američki dolar, bila je vezana za dragocenosti i količina valute u opticaju zavisila je od vladinih rezervi u zlatu ili srebru. Ali nakon što su SAD ukinule ovaj sistem 1971, dolar je postao tzv. fiat novac, što znači da nema nikakvo materijalno pokriće već se oslanja isključivo na vladinu politiku o količini valute koja će se štampati.
Which branch of our government sets this policy? The Executive, the Legislative, or the Judicial? The surprising answer is: none of the above! In fact, monetary policy is set by an independent Federal Reserve System, or the Fed, made up of 12 regional banks in major cities around the country. Its board of governors, which is appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate, reports to Congress, and all the Fed's profit goes into the US Treasury. But to keep the Fed from being influenced by the day-to-day vicissitudes of politics, it is not under the direct control of any branch of government.
Dakle, koji ogranak naše vlade donosi ovu odluku? Izvršna, zakonodavna, sudska? Odgovor je iznenađujući - ništa od navedenog! U stvari, monetarnu politiku postavlja nezavisni Sistem federalnih rezervi, odnosno Fed, sastavljen od 12 regionalnih banaka iz većih gradova širom zemlje. Njegov Upravni odbor, kojeg imenuje predsednik i potvrđuje Senat, izveštava Kongresu i celokupni profit Feda ide u blagajnu SAD. Ali da bi se Fed zaštitio od uticaja svakodnevnih političkih promena, on nije pod direktnom kontrolom bilo koje grane vlasti.
Why doesn't the Fed just decide to print infinite hundred dollar bills to make everyone happy and rich? Well, because then the bills wouldn't be worth anything. Think about the purpose of currency, which is to be exchanged for goods and services. If the total amount of currency in circulation increases faster than the total value of goods and services in the economy, then each individual piece will be able to buy a smaller portion of those things than before. This is called inflation. On the other hand, if the money supply remains the same, while more goods and services are produced, each dollar's value would increase in a process known as deflation.
Zašto Fed onda prosto ne odluči da štampa bezbroj novčanica od sto dolara kako bi svi bili bogati? Pa, zato što onda novčanice ne bi imale nikakvu vrednost. Razmislite o valuti u smislu njene razmene za robu i usluge. Ako se ukupan iznos novca u opticaju povećava brže od ukupne vrednosti robe i usluga u privredi, onda će svaki pojedinac moći da kupi manju količinu tih stvari nego ranije. Ovo se zove inflacija. Sa druge strane, ako ponuda novca ostane ista, dok se roba i usluge sve više proizvode, vrednost svakog dolara bi porasla u procesu poznatom kao deflacija.
So which is worse? Too much inflation means that the money in your wallet today will be worth less tomorrow, making you want to spend it right away. While this would stimulate business, it would also encourage overconsumption, or hoarding commodities, like food and fuel, raising their prices and leading to consumer shortages and even more inflation. But deflation would make people want to hold onto their money, and a decrease in consumer spending would reduce business profits, leading to more unemployment and a further decrease in spending, causing the economy to keep shrinking. So most economists believe that while too much of either is dangerous, a small, consistent amount of inflation is necessary to encourage economic growth.
Dakle, koje je gore? Previše inflacije znači da će novac u vašem novčaniku sutra vredeti manje, što vas navodi da ga potrošite odmah. Dakle, dok bi ovo stimulisalo biznis, takođe bi ohrabrilo i povećanje potrošnje ili prikupljanje robe poput hrane i goriva, što bi povećalo njihove cene i dovelo do nestašice i još veće inflacije. Ali deflacija bi učinila da ljudi žele da zadrže svoj novac, i smanjenje potrošnje bi smanjilo poslovne profite, što dovodi do veće nezaposlenosti i daljeg smanjenja potrošnje izazivajući smanjenje ekonomije. Dok većina ekonomista veruje da je previše inflacije i deflacije opasno, mali, konzistentni iznos inflacije
The Fed uses vast amounts of economic data to determine how much currency should be in circulation, including previous rates of inflation, international trends, and the unemployment rate. Like in the story of Goldilocks, they need to get the numbers just right in order to stimulate growth and keep people employed, without letting inflation reach disruptive levels. The Fed not only determines how much that paper in your wallet is worth but also your chances of getting or keeping the job where you earn it.
neophodan je za podsticanje privrednog rasta. Fed koristi ogromne količine ekonomskih podataka da utvrdi koliko valute treba da bude u opticaju, uključujući i prethodne stope inflacije, međunarodne trendove i stopu nezaposlenosti. Kao u priči o Zlatokosi, oni treba da pogode brojeve kako bi stimulisali rast i zaposlenost, ne dozvoljavajući inflaciju. Fed ne samo da određuje koliko vredi papir u vašem novčaniku već i koje su šanse da dobijete i zadržite posao gde ga zarađujete.