So there's a lot of valid concern these days that our technology is getting so smart that we've put ourselves on the path to a jobless future. And I think the example of a self-driving car is actually the easiest one to see. So these are going to be fantastic for all kinds of different reasons. But did you know that "driver" is actually the most common job in 29 of the 50 US states? What's going to happen to these jobs when we're no longer driving our cars or cooking our food or even diagnosing our own diseases?
Ovih dana postoji realna bojazan da naša tehnologija postaje toliko pametna da smo se zaputili u budućnost bez posla. Smatram da se na primeru samovozećih kola to, u stvari, najbolje vidi. Dakle, ovo će biti fantastično iz mnogo različitih razloga. Ali, da li ste znali da je vozač, u stvari, najčešće zanimanje u 29 od 50 država u SAD? Šta će se desiti sa ovim poslovima kada više ne budemo vozili kola, kuvali našu hranu ili čak dijagnostifikovali naše bolesti?
Well, a recent study from Forrester Research goes so far to predict that 25 million jobs might disappear over the next 10 years. To put that in perspective, that's three times as many jobs lost in the aftermath of the financial crisis. And it's not just blue-collar jobs that are at risk. On Wall Street and across Silicon Valley, we are seeing tremendous gains in the quality of analysis and decision-making because of machine learning. So even the smartest, highest-paid people will be affected by this change.
Pa, nedavna studija iz istraživanja „Forestera“ ide toliko daleko da predviđa da bi 25 miliona poslova moglo nestati u narednih 10 godina. Poređenja radi, to je tri puta veći gubitak poslova nego posledica finansijske krize. I ne radi se tu samo o riziku po poslove za radničku klasu. Na Vol Stritu i širom Silicijumske doline vidimo neverovatan napredak u kvalitetu analize i odlučivanju zbog mašinskog učenja. Dakle, čak će i najpametniji, najplaćeniji ljudi biti pogođeni ovim promenama.
What's clear is that no matter what your job is, at least some, if not all of your work, is going to be done by a robot or software in the next few years. And that's exactly why people like Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates are talking about the need for government-funded minimum income levels. But if our politicians can't agree on things like health care or even school lunches, I just don't see a path where they'll find consensus on something as big and as expensive as universal basic life income. Instead, I think the response needs to be led by us in industry. We have to recognize the change that's ahead of us and start to design the new kinds of jobs that will still be relevant in the age of robotics.
Sigurno je da će, bez obzira na to šta vam je posao, bar deo, ako ne ceo vaš posao, obavljati roboti ili softveri u narednih nekoliko godina. I upravo zbog toga ljudi kao što su Mark Zakerberg i Bil Gejts pričaju o potrebi obezbeđivanja minimalnog dohotka od strane države. Ali, ako naši političari ne mogu da se slože oko pitanja kao što je zdravstvena zaštita ili čak školska užina, jednostavno ne vidim način da pronađu koncenzus oko nečeg tako velikog i skupog kao što je jedinstveni osnovni dohodak. Umesto toga, smatram da bi rešenje trebalo da ponudimo mi iz industrije. Mi moramo prepoznati promene koje dolaze i početi da stvaramo nove vrste poslova koji će biti potrebni i u doba robotike.
The good news is that we have faced down and recovered two mass extinctions of jobs before. From 1870 to 1970, the percent of American workers based on farms fell by 90 percent, and then again from 1950 to 2010, the percent of Americans working in factories fell by 75 percent. The challenge we face this time, however, is one of time. We had a hundred years to move from farms to factories, and then 60 years to fully build out a service economy. The rate of change today suggests that we may only have 10 or 15 years to adjust, and if we don't react fast enough, that means by the time today's elementary-school students are college-aged, we could be living in a world that's robotic, largely unemployed and stuck in kind of un-great depression.
Dobra vest je da smo se već suočili i oporavili od dva masovna izumiranja poslova. Od 1870. do 1970. godine procenat američkih radnika na farmama pao je za 90 posto, a zatim ponovo od 1950. do 2010. godine procenat Amerikanaca koji su radili u fabrikama opao je za 75 odsto. Međutim, izazov sa kojim se susrećemo ovog puta je jedinstven. Imali smo sto godina da se premestimo sa farmi u fabrike i onda još 60 godina da u potpunosti izgradimo ekonomiju usluga. Stopa promena danas ukazuje na to da ćemo možda imati 10 do 15 godina da se prilagodimo i, ukoliko ne budemo odreagovali dovoljno brzo, to znači da, dok današnji osnovci ne postanu studenti, moglo bi se desiti da živimo u svetu robotike, sa velikom nezaposlenošću i zaglavljeni u nekoj vrsti Nevelike depresije.
But I don't think it has to be this way. You see, I work in innovation, and part of my job is to shape how large companies apply new technologies. Certainly some of these technologies are even specifically designed to replace human workers. But I believe that if we start taking steps right now to change the nature of work, we can not only create environments where people love coming to work but also generate the innovation that we need to replace the millions of jobs that will be lost to technology. I believe that the key to preventing our jobless future is to rediscover what makes us human, and to create a new generation of human-centered jobs that allow us to unlock the hidden talents and passions that we carry with us every day.
Ali, ne verujem da mora biti tako. Vidite, radim na inovacijama, a deo mog posla je oblikovanje načina na koji kompanije primenjuju nove tehnologije. Naravno, neke od ovih tehnologija su čak specijalno dizajnirane da zamene ljudsku radnu snagu. Ali, ja verujem da, ukoliko sada počnemo sa preduzimanjem koraka kako bismo promenili prirodu posla, ne samo da možemo stvoriti okruženje gde će ljudi voleti da dolaze na posao, nego ćemo i stvoriti inovacije koje su nam potrebne da bismo zamenili milione poslova koji će biti izgubljeni zbog tehnologije. Verujem da je ključ za sprečavanje naše budućnosti bez posla ponovno pronalaženje onoga što nas čini ljudima i stvaranje novih generacija poslova orijentisanih na ljude koji nam omogućavaju da otkrijemo skrivene talente i strasti koje svakodnevno nosimo u sebi.
But first, I think it's important to recognize that we brought this problem on ourselves. And it's not just because, you know, we are the one building the robots. But even though most jobs left the factory decades ago, we still hold on to this factory mindset of standardization and de-skilling. We still define jobs around procedural tasks and then pay people for the number of hours that they perform these tasks. We've created narrow job definitions like cashier, loan processor or taxi driver and then asked people to form entire careers around these singular tasks.
Ali, pre svega, mislim da je važno prepoznati da smo sami sebi stvorili ovaj problem. I to ne samo zato što, znate, mi pravimo robote, nego zato što, iako većina poslova ne postoji u fabrikama već decenijama, i dalje se držimo fabričkog načina razmišljanja standardizacije i zamene kvalifikovanih radnika mašinama. I dalje definišemo poslove kroz proceduralne zadatke, a zatim plaćamo ljude na osnovu broja radnih sati. Stvorili smo usko definisane poslove kao što su blagajnik, kreditni službenik ili taksista, a onda smo tražili od ljudi da celu svoju karijeru baziraju na ovim jednostavnim zadacima.
These choices have left us with actually two dangerous side effects. The first is that these narrowly defined jobs will be the first to be displaced by robots, because single-task robots are just the easiest kinds to build. But second, we have accidentally made it so that millions of workers around the world have unbelievably boring working lives.
Ovakvi izbori su nas, u stvari, ostavili sa dve opasne nuspojave. Prva je što će ovi uskospecijalizovani poslovi biti prvi koji će biti zamenjeni robotima, jer je robote za jednostavne zadatke, u stvari, najlakše napraviti. Ali, druga nuspojava koju smo slučajno napravili jeste da milioni radnika širom sveta imaju neverovatno dosadne poslovne živote.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
Let's take the example of a call center agent. Over the last few decades, we brag about lower operating costs because we've taken most of the need for brainpower out of the person and put it into the system. For most of their day, they click on screens, they read scripts. They act more like machines than humans. And unfortunately, over the next few years, as our technology gets more advanced, they, along with people like clerks and bookkeepers, will see the vast majority of their work disappear.
Uzmimo, na primer, radnika za podršku u kol centru. Tokom nekoliko proteklih decenija, hvalili smo se zbog nižih operativnih troškova jer smo zaposlenom oduzeli veći deo potrebe za razmišljanjem i ugurali ga u sistem. Tokom većeg dela dana oni klikću po ekranu, čitaju unapred pripremljeni tekst. Ponašaju se više kao mašine nego kao ljudi. I, nažalost, tokom narednih nekoliko godina, kako naša tehnologija bude napredovala, oni, zajedno sa ljudima kao što su službenici ili bibliotekari, biće svedoci toga da većina njihovog posla nestaje.
To counteract this, we have to start creating new jobs that are less centered on the tasks that a person does and more focused on the skills that a person brings to work. For example, robots are great at repetitive and constrained work, but human beings have an amazing ability to bring together capability with creativity when faced with problems that we've never seen before. It's when every day brings a little bit of a surprise that we have designed work for humans and not for robots. Our entrepreneurs and engineers already live in this world, but so do our nurses and our plumbers and our therapists. You know, it's the nature of too many companies and organizations to just ask people to come to work and do your job. But if you work is better done by a robot, or your decisions better made by an AI, what are you supposed to be doing?
Da bismo ovo ublažili, moramo osmisliti nove poslove koji su manje skoncentrisani na zadatke koje osoba obavlja, a više na veštine koje ona unosi u posao. Na primer, roboti su odlični za ograničenu radnju koja se ponavlja, ali ljudska bića imaju neverovatnu mogućnost da spoje sposobnost i kreativnost kada se suoče sa problemom koji nikad ranije nisu videli. To je kada nas svaki dan pomalo iznenadi time da smo stvorili posao za ljude, a ne za robote. Naši preduzetnici i inženjeri već žive u takvom svetu, kao i naše medicinske sestre, naši vodoinstalateri i naši terapeuti. Znate, praksa prevelikog broja kompanija i organizacija je da jednostavno traže od ljudi da dolaze i obavljaju posao. Ali, ukoliko roboti bolje obavljaju vaš posao ili ako bolje odluke od vas donosi veštačka inteligencija, šta se očekuje od vas da radite?
Well, I think for the manager, we need to realistically think about the tasks that will be disappearing over the next few years and start planning for more meaningful, more valuable work that should replace it. We need to create environments where both human beings and robots thrive. I say, let's give more work to the robots, and let's start with the work that we absolutely hate doing. Here, robot, process this painfully idiotic report.
Pa, što se tiče menadžera, moramo realno da razmislimo o zadacima koji će nestati u narednih nekoliko godina i da počnemo planirati smisleniji i značajniji posao koji ih može zameniti. Moramo stvoriti okruženje gde će se razvijati ljudi i roboti. Predlažem: dajte više posla robotima i hajde da počnemo sa onim poslovima koje apsolutno mrzimo da obavljamo. Evo, robote, obradi ovaj bolno idiotski izveštaj.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
And move this box. Thank you.
I pomeri ovu kutiju. Hvala ti.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
And for the human beings, we should follow the advice from Harry Davis at the University of Chicago. He says we have to make it so that people don't leave too much of themselves in the trunk of their car. I mean, human beings are amazing on weekends. Think about the people that you know and what they do on Saturdays. They're artists, carpenters, chefs and athletes. But on Monday, they're back to being Junior HR Specialist and Systems Analyst 3.
A što se ljudskih bića tiče, trebalo bi slediti savet Harija Dejvisa sa Univerziteta u Čikagu. On kaže da moramo to napraviti tako da ljudi ne ostavljaju prevelik deo sebe skriven od očiju drugih. Mislim, ljudska bića su fenomenalna vikendom. Razmislite o ljudima koje poznajete i šta oni rade subotom. Oni su umetnici, stolari, kuvari i atletičari, ali ponedeljkom ponovo postaju specijalista za ljudske resurse ili analitičar sistema 3.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
You know, these narrow job titles not only sound boring, but they're actually a subtle encouragement for people to make narrow and boring job contributions. But I've seen firsthand that when you invite people to be more, they can amaze us with how much more they can be.
Znate, ovi nazivi za uskospecijalizovane poslove ne samo da su dosadni, nego predstavljaju i suptilno ohrabrenje ljudima, da stvaraju uskogrud i dosadan doprinos. Ali, ja sam iz prve ruke video da, ako zatražite od ljudi da budu nešto više, oni mogu da nas zadive time koliko bolji mogu biti.
A few years ago, I was working at a large bank that was trying to bring more innovation into its company culture. So my team and I designed a prototyping contest that invited anyone to build anything that they wanted. We were actually trying to figure out whether or not the primary limiter to innovation was a lack of ideas or a lack of talent, and it turns out it was neither one. It was an empowerment problem. And the results of the program were amazing. We started by inviting people to reenvision what it is they could bring to a team. This contest was not only a chance to build anything that you wanted but also be anything that you wanted. And when people were no longer limited by their day-to-day job titles, they felt free to bring all kinds of different skills and talents to the problems that they were trying to solve. We saw technology people being designers, marketing people being architects, and even finance people showing off their ability to write jokes.
Pre nekoliko godina, radio sam u velikoj banci koja je pokušavala da uvede više inovacija u samu kulturu kompanije. Tako smo moj tim i ja osmislili takmičenje za prototip, koji je omogućavao svakome da napravi šta god je hteo. U stvari, pokušavali smo da shvatimo da li je osnovna prepreka inovacijama nedostatak ideja ili nedostatak talenta, a ispostavilo se da nije ni jedno ni drugo. Problem je bio u nedostatku podsticanja. A rezultati programa su bili zadivljujući. Počeli smo sa podsticanjem ljudi da ponovo osmisle šta to oni mogu doneti u tim. Ovo takmičenje nije bila samo prilika da se napravi šta god želite nego i da budete bilo šta što želite. A kada ljudi više nisu bili ograničeni svojim svakodnevnim titulama, osećali su se slobodno da pokažu razne vrste veština i talenata pri nalaženju rešenja za problem koji su pokušavali da reše. Videli smo tehničare kao dizajnere, ljude iz marketinga kao arhitekte, i čak sposobnost ljudi iz finansija za pisanje viceva.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
We ran this program twice, and each time more than 400 people brought their unexpected talents to work and solved problems that they had been wanting to solve for years. Collectively, they created millions of dollars of value, building things like a better touch-tone system for call centers, easier desktop tools for branches and even a thank you card system that has become a cornerstone of the employee working experience. Over the course of the eight weeks, people flexed muscles that they never dreamed of using at work. People learned new skills, they met new people, and at the end, somebody pulled me aside and said, "I have to tell you, the last few weeks has been one of the most intense, hardest working experiences of my entire life, but not one second of it felt like work."
Ovaj program smo sprovodili dva puta, a svaki put je više od 400 ljudi pokazalo neočekivani talenat za rad i rešavanje problema koje su godinama želeli da reše. Zajedno su stvorili milione dolara vrednosti, stvarajući stvari kao što su bolji sistem tonskog pozivanja za kol centar, jednostavnije desktop alatke za fajlove, pa čak i sistem sa zahvalnicama koji je postao kamen temeljac radnog iskustva zaposlenih. Tokom osmonedeljnog kursa, ljudi su pokretali mišiće koje nisu nikad mogli zamisliti da će koristiti na poslu, naučili su nove veštine, upoznali su nove ljude i, na kraju, neko me je povukao na stranu i rekao: „Moram Vam reći, poslednjih nekoliko nedelja je bilo jedno od najnapetijih i najtežih radnih iskustava u celom mom životu, ali ni jednog trenutka nije delovalo kao posao.“
And that's the key. For those few weeks, people got to be creators and innovators. They had been dreaming of solutions to problems that had been bugging them for years, and this was a chance to turn those dreams into a reality. And that dreaming is an important part of what separates us from machines. For now, our machines do not get frustrated, they do not get annoyed, and they certainly don't imagine.
U tome i jeste ključ. Tokom tih nekoliko nedelja ljudi su morali da budu stvaraoci i inovatori. Sanjali su o rešenjima problema koji su ih mučili godinama, a to je bila šansa da pretvore te snove u stvarnost. To sanjarenje je važan deo koji razdvaja nas od mašina. Za sada, naše mašine ne postaju isfrustrirane, ne postaju iznervirane i svakako ne zamišljaju.
But we, as human beings -- we feel pain, we get frustrated. And it's when we're most annoyed and most curious that we're motivated to dig into a problem and create change. Our imaginations are the birthplace of new products, new services, and even new industries.
Ali, mi kao ljudska bića osećamo bol, iznerviramo se. I upravo kad smo najviše iznervirani ili najzainteresovaniji, tada smo motivisani da kopamo po problemu i stvaramo promene. Naša mašta je mesto gde se rađaju novi proizvodi, nove usluge, pa čak i nove industrije.
I believe that the jobs of the future will come from the minds of people who today we call analysts and specialists, but only if we give them the freedom and protection that they need to grow into becoming explorers and inventors. If we really want to robot-proof our jobs, we, as leaders, need to get out of the mindset of telling people what to do and instead start asking them what problems they're inspired to solve and what talents they want to bring to work. Because when you can bring your Saturday self to work on Wednesdays, you'll look forward to Mondays more, and those feelings that we have about Mondays are part of what makes us human.
Verujem da će poslovi budućnosti poteći iz uma ljudi koje danas zovemo analitičari ili specijalisti, ali samo ako im damo slobodu i zaštitu koja im je neophodna za prerastanje u istraživače i inovatore. Ako zaista želimo da zaštitimo naše poslove od robotizovanja, mi, kao lideri, moramo da izađemo iz okvira u kome govorimo ljudima šta da rade i, umesto toga, da počnemo da ih pitamo koje probleme žele da rešavaju i koje talente žele da unesu u posao. Jer, ako uspete da dovedete subotnjeg sebe da radi sredom, više ćete se radovati ponedeljku, a to osećanje koje imamo o ponedeljku je ono što nas čini ljudima.
And as we redesign work for an era of intelligent machines, I invite you all to work alongside me to bring more humanity to our working lives.
I dok redizajniramo posao za eru inteligentnih mašina, pozivam vas sve da radite sa mnom da unesemo više humanosti u naše radne živote.
Thank you.
Hvala vam.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)