So there's a lot of valid concern these days that our technology is getting so smart that we've put ourselves on the path to a jobless future. And I think the example of a self-driving car is actually the easiest one to see. So these are going to be fantastic for all kinds of different reasons. But did you know that "driver" is actually the most common job in 29 of the 50 US states? What's going to happen to these jobs when we're no longer driving our cars or cooking our food or even diagnosing our own diseases?
Ovih dana mnogi opravdano brinu da tehnologija postaje toliko pametna i da smo krenuli ka budućnosti bez posla. Mislim da je samovozeći automobil najočitiji primjer. Bit će on fantastičan iz brojnih razloga. No, jeste li znali da je "vozač" najčešće zanimanje u 29 od 50 američkih država? Što će biti s tim radnim mjestima kad više ne budemo vozili, ili kuhali, ili pak dijagnosticirali svoje bolesti?
Well, a recent study from Forrester Research goes so far to predict that 25 million jobs might disappear over the next 10 years. To put that in perspective, that's three times as many jobs lost in the aftermath of the financial crisis. And it's not just blue-collar jobs that are at risk. On Wall Street and across Silicon Valley, we are seeing tremendous gains in the quality of analysis and decision-making because of machine learning. So even the smartest, highest-paid people will be affected by this change.
Nedavno se u istraživanju Forrester Research-a predvidjelo da čak 25 milijuna radnih mjesta možda nestane u narednih 10 godina. Drugim riječima, radi se o tri puta više izgubljenih radnih mjesta nego nakon financijske krize. I nisu ugrožena samo radnička mjesta. Na Wall Streetu i u Silicijskoj dolini ostvaruje se ogroman napredak u kvaliteti analize i donošenju odluka zahvaljujući strojnom učenju. Stoga će promjena utjecati čak i na one najpametnije i s najboljom plaćom.
What's clear is that no matter what your job is, at least some, if not all of your work, is going to be done by a robot or software in the next few years. And that's exactly why people like Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates are talking about the need for government-funded minimum income levels. But if our politicians can't agree on things like health care or even school lunches, I just don't see a path where they'll find consensus on something as big and as expensive as universal basic life income. Instead, I think the response needs to be led by us in industry. We have to recognize the change that's ahead of us and start to design the new kinds of jobs that will still be relevant in the age of robotics.
Jasno je da, bez obzira na to čime se bavite, dio vašeg posla, ako ne i sav vaš posao, obavljat će robot ili software u narednih nekoliko godina. Upravo stoga ljudi poput Marka Zuckerberga i Billa Gatesa govore o potrebi za razinama minimalnog prihoda kojeg financira vlada. No, ako se naši političari ne mogu dogovoriti ni oko liječničke skrbi, ili ručka u školama, ne vidim na koji će način postići dogovor o nečemu toliko značajnom i skupom kao što je jedinstveni osnovni životni prihod. Umjesto toga, mislim da odgovor trebamo ponuditi mi u industriji. Moramo prihvatiti činjenicu da je promjena neizbježna i početi stvarati nova radna mjesta koja će biti održiva i u eri robotike.
The good news is that we have faced down and recovered two mass extinctions of jobs before. From 1870 to 1970, the percent of American workers based on farms fell by 90 percent, and then again from 1950 to 2010, the percent of Americans working in factories fell by 75 percent. The challenge we face this time, however, is one of time. We had a hundred years to move from farms to factories, and then 60 years to fully build out a service economy. The rate of change today suggests that we may only have 10 or 15 years to adjust, and if we don't react fast enough, that means by the time today's elementary-school students are college-aged, we could be living in a world that's robotic, largely unemployed and stuck in kind of un-great depression.
Dobra je vijest da smo već susreli i oporavili se od dva razdoblja masovnog izumiranja radnih mjesta. Od 1870. do 1970. postotak američkih radnika na farmama pao je za 90 posto, zatim od 1950. do 2010. postotak američkih radnika u tvornicama pao je za 75 posto. Ipak, izazov s kojim se ovog puta suočavamo tiče se vremena. Imali smo stotinu godina za prijelaz s farmi na tvornice, a zatim 60 godina za potpunu izgradnju uslužnog gospodarstva. Stopa promjene danas ukazuje da možda imamo samo 10 ili 15 godina za prilagodbu, i ako ne reagiramo dovoljno brzo, do trenutka kada današnji osnovnoškolci krenu na fakultet, mogli bismo živjeti u svijetu robotike, s velikom stopom nezaposlenosti i u velikoj krizi.
But I don't think it has to be this way. You see, I work in innovation, and part of my job is to shape how large companies apply new technologies. Certainly some of these technologies are even specifically designed to replace human workers. But I believe that if we start taking steps right now to change the nature of work, we can not only create environments where people love coming to work but also generate the innovation that we need to replace the millions of jobs that will be lost to technology. I believe that the key to preventing our jobless future is to rediscover what makes us human, and to create a new generation of human-centered jobs that allow us to unlock the hidden talents and passions that we carry with us every day.
No, ja mislim da ne mora tako završiti. Vidite, ja se bavim inovacijom te djelomice i time kako velike kompanije primjenjuju nove tehnologije. Jasno, neke od tih tehnologija čak su posebno osmišljene kao zamjena za ljudsku radnu snagu. No, vjerujem da ako odmah počnemo djelovati i mijenjati prirodu posla, ne samo da možemo stvoriti sredine u kojima će ljudi voljeti ići na posao, već možemo stvoriti i inovaciju kojom će se nadoknaditi milijuni radnih mjesta izgubljenih zbog tehnologije. Vjerujem da ključ sprečavanja budućnosti bez posla leži u otkrivanju onoga što nas čini ljudima te u stvaranju novog naraštaja poslova usredotočenih na ljude, pomoću kojih oslobađamo skrivene talente i strasti koje stalno nosimo u sebi.
But first, I think it's important to recognize that we brought this problem on ourselves. And it's not just because, you know, we are the one building the robots. But even though most jobs left the factory decades ago, we still hold on to this factory mindset of standardization and de-skilling. We still define jobs around procedural tasks and then pay people for the number of hours that they perform these tasks. We've created narrow job definitions like cashier, loan processor or taxi driver and then asked people to form entire careers around these singular tasks.
No, prije toga, mislim da je važno priznati da smo si te probleme sami stvorili. I to ne samo zato jer smo mi ti koji izrađujemo robote. Iako se većina poslova već desetljećima ne odvija u tvornici, i dalje se držimo tvorničkog mentaliteta normizacije i dekvalifikacije. I dalje posao definiramo oko proceduralnih zadataka, a zatim radnike plaćamo obzirom na broj sati u kojem obave te zadatke. Imamo stroge definicije radnih mjesta poput blagajnika, taksista, ili referenta kredita, a zatim od ljudi tražimo da cijelu karijeru izgrade oko tih pojedinačnih zadataka.
These choices have left us with actually two dangerous side effects. The first is that these narrowly defined jobs will be the first to be displaced by robots, because single-task robots are just the easiest kinds to build. But second, we have accidentally made it so that millions of workers around the world have unbelievably boring working lives.
Te odluke sa sobom nose dvije opasne posljedice. Prvo, takva strogo definirana radna mjesta roboti će prva preuzeti, jer se roboti s jednom funkcijom najjednostavnije izrađuju. Drugo, sasvim slučajno uspjeli smo radni vijek milijuna radnika u cijelom svijetu učiniti nevjerojatno dosadnim.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
Let's take the example of a call center agent. Over the last few decades, we brag about lower operating costs because we've taken most of the need for brainpower out of the person and put it into the system. For most of their day, they click on screens, they read scripts. They act more like machines than humans. And unfortunately, over the next few years, as our technology gets more advanced, they, along with people like clerks and bookkeepers, will see the vast majority of their work disappear.
Uzmimo, primjerice, agenta u pozivnom centru. Posljednjih se desetljeća dičimo niskim operativnim troškovima jer smo potrebu za korištenjem mozga prebacili s osobe na sustav. Veći dio dana radnici tipkaju po ekranima, čitaju upute. Više su nalik strojevima nego ljudima. I, nažalost, u narednih nekoliko godina, kako tehnologija bude napredovala, oni će, kao i službenici te knjigovođe, svjedočiti nestajanju ogromne većine svog posla.
To counteract this, we have to start creating new jobs that are less centered on the tasks that a person does and more focused on the skills that a person brings to work. For example, robots are great at repetitive and constrained work, but human beings have an amazing ability to bring together capability with creativity when faced with problems that we've never seen before. It's when every day brings a little bit of a surprise that we have designed work for humans and not for robots. Our entrepreneurs and engineers already live in this world, but so do our nurses and our plumbers and our therapists. You know, it's the nature of too many companies and organizations to just ask people to come to work and do your job. But if you work is better done by a robot, or your decisions better made by an AI, what are you supposed to be doing?
To moramo spriječiti stvaranjem novih radnih mjesta, manje usredotočenih na zadatke koje osoba obavlja, a više na vještine kojima ta osoba pridonosi poslu. Roboti su izvrsni za poslove koji su ograničeni i ponavljaju se, no ljudska bića imaju zapanjujuću moć spajanja sposobnosti s kreativnošću pri suočavanju s dotad neviđenim problemom. Oni poslovi koji svakog dana donose malu dozu iznenađenja osmišljeni su za ljude, ne za robote. Naši poduzetnici i inženjeri već žive u takvom svijetu, kao i medicinske sestre ili vodoinstalateri, ili pak psihijatri. Znate, prirodno je za brojne kompanije i organizacije da od zaposlenika traže da jednostavno dođu na posao i obavljaju ga. No, ako vaš posao bolje obavlja robot, ili vaše odluke bolje donosi umjetna inteligencija (UI), što biste Vi trebali raditi?
Well, I think for the manager, we need to realistically think about the tasks that will be disappearing over the next few years and start planning for more meaningful, more valuable work that should replace it. We need to create environments where both human beings and robots thrive. I say, let's give more work to the robots, and let's start with the work that we absolutely hate doing. Here, robot, process this painfully idiotic report.
Mislim da za menadžere realistično moramo razmišljati o zadacima koji će nestajati u narednim godinama te početi planirati smislenije, vrednije poslove koji će ih zamijeniti. Moramo stvoriti sredine u kojima mogu rasti i ljudi i roboti. Ja kažem, dajmo više posla robotima, i to počevši od posla koji mrzimo više od svega. Evo, robote, obradi ovo bolno idiotsko izvješće.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
And move this box. Thank you.
I pomakni ovu kutiju. Hvala.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
And for the human beings, we should follow the advice from Harry Davis at the University of Chicago. He says we have to make it so that people don't leave too much of themselves in the trunk of their car. I mean, human beings are amazing on weekends. Think about the people that you know and what they do on Saturdays. They're artists, carpenters, chefs and athletes. But on Monday, they're back to being Junior HR Specialist and Systems Analyst 3.
A što se ljudi tiče, trebali bismo slijediti savjet Harryja Davisa sa Sveučilišta u Chicagu. On tvrdi kako treba težiti tomu da ljudi ne ostave velik dio svog potencijala neiskorištenim. Želim reći, ljudska bića vikendom su čudesna. Pomislite samo na ljude koje poznajete i što oni čine subotom. Postaju umjetnici, stolari, vrsni kuhari i sportaši. No, ponedjeljkom ponovno postaju mlađi specijalisti za ljudske resurse i sistemski analitičari 3.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
You know, these narrow job titles not only sound boring, but they're actually a subtle encouragement for people to make narrow and boring job contributions. But I've seen firsthand that when you invite people to be more, they can amaze us with how much more they can be.
Vidite, ti strogi nazivi radnog mjesta ne samo da zvuče dosadno, već su i svojevrstan poticaj osobama da daju monoton i ograničen doprinos na radnom mjestu. No, iz prve ruke uvjerio sam se da kad osobu potaknete na više, može nas iznenaditi onime što ima za ponuditi.
A few years ago, I was working at a large bank that was trying to bring more innovation into its company culture. So my team and I designed a prototyping contest that invited anyone to build anything that they wanted. We were actually trying to figure out whether or not the primary limiter to innovation was a lack of ideas or a lack of talent, and it turns out it was neither one. It was an empowerment problem. And the results of the program were amazing. We started by inviting people to reenvision what it is they could bring to a team. This contest was not only a chance to build anything that you wanted but also be anything that you wanted. And when people were no longer limited by their day-to-day job titles, they felt free to bring all kinds of different skills and talents to the problems that they were trying to solve. We saw technology people being designers, marketing people being architects, and even finance people showing off their ability to write jokes.
Prije nekoliko godina radio sam u velikoj banci koja je pokušavala uvesti inovaciju u kulturu kompanije. Moj tim i ja osmislili smo natječaj za izradu prototipova u kojem smo sve pozvali da izrade štogod žele. Zapravo smo pokušali otkriti je li do tada inovaciju sprečavao nedostatak ideja ili nedostatak talenta, a otkrili smo da nije bilo nijedno. Problem je bio u dodjeli ovlasti. I rezultati programa bili su nevjerojatni. Prvo smo pozvali ljude da se ponovno prisjete čime mogu pridonijeti timu. Natječaj je bio prilika ne samo da svatko izradi ono što želi, već i da bude ono što želi. Kada ljudi više nisu bili ograničeni nazivima svojih radnih mjesta, osjećali su se slobodnima koristiti razne vještine i talente i time pridonijeti rješavanju problema. Tehnolozi su postali projektanti, oni iz marketinga arhitekti, čak su i oni iz financija pokazali svoje umijeće u smišljanju viceva.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
We ran this program twice, and each time more than 400 people brought their unexpected talents to work and solved problems that they had been wanting to solve for years. Collectively, they created millions of dollars of value, building things like a better touch-tone system for call centers, easier desktop tools for branches and even a thank you card system that has become a cornerstone of the employee working experience. Over the course of the eight weeks, people flexed muscles that they never dreamed of using at work. People learned new skills, they met new people, and at the end, somebody pulled me aside and said, "I have to tell you, the last few weeks has been one of the most intense, hardest working experiences of my entire life, but not one second of it felt like work."
Program smo proveli dva puta, i svaki put više od 400 ljudi iznijelo je na stol svoje neočekivane talente i riješilo probleme koje su godinama željeli riješiti. Zajedno su stvorili milijune dolara vrijednosti, izradili stvari poput boljeg tonskog sustava za pozivne centre, lakših radnih alata za podružnice, čak i sustava e-čestitki, koji je postao kamen temeljac radnog iskustva zaposlenika. Tijekom osam tjedana, svi su zaposlili mišiće koje nisu ni sanjali da će ikad koristiti na poslu. Svladali su nove vještine, sklopili nova poznanstva, i na kraju, netko me povukao u stranu i rekao, "Moram priznati, posljednji tjedni bili su jedno od najintenzivnijih, najtežih radnih iskustava u cijelom mom životu, no ni na sekundu nisam imao osjećaj da radim."
And that's the key. For those few weeks, people got to be creators and innovators. They had been dreaming of solutions to problems that had been bugging them for years, and this was a chance to turn those dreams into a reality. And that dreaming is an important part of what separates us from machines. For now, our machines do not get frustrated, they do not get annoyed, and they certainly don't imagine.
I u tome je ključ svega. Tih su nekoliko tjedana ljudi bili stvaratelji i inovatori. Sanjali su o rješenjima problema koji su ih mučili godinama i ovo je bila prilika da te snove pretvore u stvarnost. Upravo su ti snovi ono po čemu se razlikujemo od strojeva. Strojeve još uvijek ne možemo isfrustrirati, iziritirati, a zasigurno nisu sposobni ni zamišljati.
But we, as human beings -- we feel pain, we get frustrated. And it's when we're most annoyed and most curious that we're motivated to dig into a problem and create change. Our imaginations are the birthplace of new products, new services, and even new industries.
No, mi kao ljudska bića, osjećamo bol i frustraciju. I upravo kada smo najuzrujaniji i najradoznaliji, motivirani smo da istražimo problem i promijenimo stvari. Naša mašta je mjesto gdje se rađaju novi proizvodi i usluge, čak i nove industrije.
I believe that the jobs of the future will come from the minds of people who today we call analysts and specialists, but only if we give them the freedom and protection that they need to grow into becoming explorers and inventors. If we really want to robot-proof our jobs, we, as leaders, need to get out of the mindset of telling people what to do and instead start asking them what problems they're inspired to solve and what talents they want to bring to work. Because when you can bring your Saturday self to work on Wednesdays, you'll look forward to Mondays more, and those feelings that we have about Mondays are part of what makes us human.
Vjerujem da će poslove budućnosti osmisliti ljudi koje danas nazivamo analitičarima i specijalistima, no, samo ako dobiju slobodu i zaštitu koji su im potrebni da rastu i postanu istraživači i izumitelji. Ako doista želimo radna mjesta otporna na robote, mi, kao vođe, moramo prestati ljudima naređivati što da rade i umjesto toga pitati ih koje probleme osjećaju da mogu riješiti te koje talente pritom žele primijeniti. Jer kada u srijedu na posao možeš dovesti sebe iz vikend izdanja, više ćeš se radovati ponedjeljku, a onaj osjećaj koji nas preplavljuje ponedjeljkom, dio je onoga što nas čini ljudima.
And as we redesign work for an era of intelligent machines, I invite you all to work alongside me to bring more humanity to our working lives.
I dok radimo na redizajnu posla u eri inteligentnih strojeva, pozivam vas da zajedno sa mnom donesete više humanosti u naše radne živote.
Thank you.
Hvala.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)