I'd like you to imagine the world anew. I'd like to show you some maps, which have been drawn by Ben Hennig, of the planet in a way that most of you will never have seen the planet depicted before.
Hteo bih da iznova zamislite svet. Želeo bih da vam pokažem neke mape koje je nacrtao Ben Henig i koje prikazuju planetu na način na koji većina vas nikada nije videla.
Here's an image that you're very familiar with. I'm old enough that I was actually born before we saw this image. Apparently some of my first words were "moona, moona," but I think that's my mom having a particular fantasy about what her baby boy could see on the flickering black and white TV screen. It's only been a few centuries since we've actually, most of us, thought of our planet as spherical. When we first saw these images in the 1960s, the world was changing at an incredible rate. In my own little discipline of human geography, a cartographer called Waldo Tobler was drawing new maps of the planet, and these maps have now spread, and I'm going to show you one of them now. This map is a map of the world, but it's a map which looks to you a little bit strange. It's a map in which we stretched places, so that those areas which contain many people are drawn larger, and those areas, like the Sahara and the Himalayas, in which there are few people, have been shrunk away. Everybody on the planet is given an equal amount of space. The cities are shown shining bright. The lines are showing you submarine cables and trade routes. And there's one particular line that goes from the Chinese port of Dalian through past Singapore, through the Suez Canal, through the Mediterranean and round to Rotterdam. And it's showing you the route of what was the world's largest ship just a year ago, a ship which was taking so many containers of goods that when they were unloaded, if the lorries had all gone in convoy, they would have been 100 kilometers long. This is how our world is now connected. This is the quantity of stuff we are now moving around the world, just on one ship, on one voyage, in five weeks.
Evo slike koja vam je vrlo poznata. Toliko sam star da sam zapravo rođen pre nego što smo videli ovu sliku. Navodno je jedna od mojih prvih reči bila „mesec, mesec“, ali mislim da je to moja mama imala specifičnu fantaziju o tome šta bi njen dečačić mogao da vidi na treperavom crno-belom ekranu TV-a. Ima svega nekoliko vekova otkad većina nas zamišlja našu planetu kao sferu. Kada smo prvi put videli ove slike '60-ih godina, svet se menjao neverovatnom brzinom. U mojoj maloj disciplini ljudske geografije, kartograf po imenu Voldo Tobler crtao je nove mape planete koje su se danas proširile, a pokazaću vam sada jednu od njih. Ovo je mapa sveta, ali vam ta mapa izgleda pomalo čudno. To je mapa na kojoj smo raširili mesta, tako da su one oblasti koje obuhvataju mnogo ljudi nacrtane kao veće, a one oblasti, poput Sahare i Himalaja, gde ima malo ljudi, smanjene su. Svima na planeti je data jednaka količina prostora. Gradovi su prikazani tako da sijaju. Linije vam pokazuju podmorske kablove i trgovačke puteve. Tu je i jedna posebna linija koja ide od kineske luke Dalijan, prolazi pored Singapura, kroz Suecki kanal, kroz Sredozemlje i okolo do Roterdama. Pokazuje vam i putanju nečega što je bio najveći brod na svetu pre samo godinu dana, brod koji je prenosio toliko sanduka sa robom da, kada bi se istovarili, kada bi svi kamioni krenuli u koloni, ona bi bila duga 100 kilometara. Ovako je danas naš svet povezan. To je količina stvari koje danas prevozimo širom sveta, samo na jednom brodu, na jednom putovanju, tokom pet nedelja.
We've lived in cities for a very long time, but most of us didn't live in cities. This is Çatalhöyük, one of the world's first cities. At its peak 9,000 years ago, people had to walk over the roofs of others' houses to get to their home. If you look carefully at the map of the city, you'll see it has no streets, because streets are something we invented. The world changes. It changes by trial and error. We work out slowly and gradually how to live in better ways. And the world has changed incredibly quickly most recently. It's only within the last six, seven, or eight generations that we have actually realized that we are a species. It's only within the last few decades that a map like this could be drawn. Again, the underlying map is the map of world population, but over it, you're seeing arrows showing how we spread out of Africa with dates showing you where we think we arrived at particular times. I have to redraw this map every few months, because somebody makes a discovery that a particular date was wrong. We are learning about ourselves at an incredible speed. And we're changing. A lot of change is gradual. It's accretion. We don't notice the change because we only have short lives, 70, 80, if you're lucky 90 years. This graph is showing you the annual rate of population growth in the world. It was very low until around about 1850, and then the rate of population growth began to rise so that around the time I was born, when we first saw those images from the moon of our planet, our global population was growing at two percent a year. If it had carried on growing at two percent a year for just another couple of centuries, the entire planet would be covered with a seething mass of human bodies all touching each other. And people were scared. They were scared of population growth and what they called "the population bomb" in 1968. But then, if you look at the end of the graph, the growth began to slow. The decade -- the '70s, the '80s, the '90s, the noughties, and in this decade, even faster -- our population growth is slowing. Our planet is stabilizing. We are heading towards nine, 10, or 11 billion people by the end of the century. Within that change, you can see tumult. You can see the Second World War. You can see the pandemic in 1918 from influenza. You can see the great Chinese famine. These are the events we tend to concentrate on. We tend to concentrate on the terrible events in the news. We don't tend to concentrate on the gradual change and the good news stories.
Dugo živimo u gradovima, ali većina nas nije živela u njima. Ovo je Čatal Hujuk, jedan od prvih svetskih gradova. Na njegovom vrhuncu pre 9 000 godina, ljudi su morali da hodaju preko krovova kuća drugih ljudi da bi stigli do svoje. Ako pažljivo pogledate mapu grada, videćete da nema ulice, jer su ulice nešto što smo izumeli. Svet se menja. Menja se putem pokušaja i pogrešaka. Polako i postepeno otkrivamo kako da živimo na bolje načine. Svet se u skorije vreme menjao neverovatno brzo. Tek smo tokom poslednjih šest, sedam ili osam generacija zapravo shvatili da smo vrsta. Tek se poslednjih nekoliko decenija ovakva mapa mogla nacrtati. Još jednom, mapa u osnovi ove je mapa svetskog stanovništva, ali po njoj vidite strelice koje pokazuju kako smo se proširili iz Afrike sa datumima koji vam pokazuju gde mislimo da smo stigli u određeno vreme. Moram iznova da crtam ovu mapu svakih nekoliko meseci, jer neko dođe do otkrića da je određeni datum bio pogrešan. Saznajemo o sebi neverovatnom brzinom. Takođe se menjamo. Mnoge promene su postepene. To je nadograđivanje. Ne primećujemo promene jer imamo kratke živote - 70, 80, ako imate sreće, 90 godina. Ovaj grafikon vam pokazuje godišnju stopu rasta stanovništva u svetu. Bila je vrlo niska do otprilike 1850. godine, a zatim je stopa rasta populacije počela da se povećava tako da je u vreme kada sam ja rođen, kada smo prvi put videli one slike naše planete sa Meseca, naše globalno stanovništvo raslo dva procenta godišnje. Da je nastavilo da raste dva posto godišnje samo još par vekova, čitava planeta bi bila prekrivena nabujalom masom ljudskih tela koja se međusobno dodiruju. Ljudi su bili uplašeni. Uplašili su se rasta populacije i onoga što su nazvali „demografska bomba“ 1968. godine. Međutim, zatim je, ako pogledate kraj grafikona, rast stanovništva počeo da usporava. Decenijama - '70-ih, '80-ih, '90-ih, 2000-ih, a u ovoj deceniji čak i brže - porast broja stanovnika usporava. Naša planeta se stabilizuje. Na putu smo ka 9, 10 ili 11 milijardi ljudi do kraja veka. U okviru te promene, možete videti burne trenutke. Možete videti Drugi svetski rat. Možete videti pandemiju španske groznice 1918. godine. Možete videti veliku glad u Kini. To su događaji na koje se obično usredsredimo. Skloni smo da se usredsredimo na užasne događaje u vestima. Nemamo običaj da se fokusiramo na postepene promene i dobre priče u vestima.
We worry about people. We worry about how many people there are. We worry about how you can get away from people. But this is the map of the world changed again to make area large, the further away people are from each area. So if you want to know where to go to get away from everybody, here's the best places to go. And every year, these areas get bigger, because every year, we are coming off the land globally. We are moving into the cities. We are packing in more densely. There are wolves again in Europe, and the wolves are moving west across the continent. Our world is changing.
Brinemo se zbog ljudi. Brine nas koliko ljudi ima. Brine nas kako pobeći od ljudi. Ovo je mapa sveta koja je ponovo izmenjena tako da se oblasti uvećaju, što su ljudi iz svake oblasti udaljeniji. Dakle, ako želite da znate gde pobeći od svih, ovo su najbolja mesta za to. Svake godine ove oblasti postaju veće, jer se svake godine globalno odvajamo od zemljišta. Selimo se u gradove. Gušće se smeštamo. Vukovi su ponovo u Evropi, a oni se sele zapadno širom kontinenta. Naš svet se menja.
You have worries. This is a map showing where the water falls on our planet. We now know that. And you can look at where Çatalhöyük was, where three continents meet, Africa, Asia, and Europe, and you can see there are a large number of people living there in areas with very little water. And you can see areas in which there is a great deal of rainfall as well. And we can get a bit more sophisticated. Instead of making the map be shaped by people, we can shape the map by water, and then we can change it every month to show the amount of water falling on every small part of the globe. And you see the monsoons moving around the planet, and the planet almost appears to have a heartbeat. And all of this only became possible within my lifetime to see this is where we are living. We have enough water.
Muče vas brige. Ovo je mapa koja pokazuje gde pada voda na našoj planeti. Sada to znamo. Možete pogledati tamo gde je bio Čatal Hujuk, gde se susreću tri kontinenta - Afrika, Azija i Evropa - i možete videti da postoji veliki broj ljudi koji živi tamo u oblastima sa vrlo malo vode. Takođe možete videti oblasti u kojima ima mnogo padavina. Možemo da budemo malo prefinjeniji. Umesto da sačinimo mapu tako da je oblikuju ljudi, možemo je oblikovati po vodi, a zatim je možemo menjati svakog meseca da bismo pokazali količinu vode koja pada na svakom deliću Zemljine kugle. Vidite kako se monsuni kreću po planeti i gotovo se čini da planeta ima otkucaje srca. Sve ovo je tek postalo moguće tokom mog života, da vidimo gde živimo. Imamo dovoljno vode.
This is a map of where we grow our food in the world. This is the areas that we will rely on most for rice and maize and corn. People worry that there won't be enough food, but we know, if we just ate less meat and fed less of the crops to animals, there is enough food for everybody as long as we think of ourselves as one group of people.
Ovo je mapa mesta u svetu na kojima uzgajamo hranu. Ovo su oblasti na koje se oslanjamo uglavnom za dobijanje pirinča i kukuruza. Ljudi brinu da neće biti dovoljno hrane, ali znamo da, ako samo jedemo manje mesa i manje biljaka dajemo životinjama, postoji dovoljno hrane za sve dok god se smatramo jednom grupom ljudi.
And we also know about what we do so terribly badly nowadays. You will have seen this map of the world before. This is the map produced by taking satellite images, if you remember those satellites around the planet in the very first slide I showed, and producing an image of what the Earth looks like at night. When you normally see that map, on a normal map, the kind of map that most of you will be used to, you think you are seeing a map of where people live. Where the lights are shining up is where people live. But here, on this image of the world, remember we've stretched the map again. Everywhere has the same density of people on this map. If an area doesn't have people, we've shrunk it away to make it disappear. So we're showing everybody with equal prominence. Now, the lights no longer show you where people are, because people are everywhere. Now the lights on the map, the lights in London, the lights in Cairo, the lights in Tokyo, the lights on the Eastern Seaboard of the United States, the lights show you where people live who are so profligate with energy that they can afford to spend money powering lights to shine up into the sky, so satellites can draw an image like this. And the areas that are dark on the map are either areas where people do not have access to that much energy, or areas where people do, but they have learned to stop shining the light up into the sky. And if I could show you this map animated over time, you would see that Tokyo has actually become darker, because ever since the tsunami in Japan, Japan has had to rely on a quarter less electricity because it turned the nuclear power stations off. And the world didn't end. You just shone less light up into the sky.
Takođe znamo šta to radimo toliko užasno loše u današnje vreme. Videli ste ranije ovu mapu sveta. Ovo je mapa koja je nastala pomoću slika sa satelita, ako se sećate onih satelita oko planete na prvom slajdu koji sam pokazao, i stvaranjem slike kako Zemlja izgleda noću. Kada inače vidite tu mapu, na normalnoj mapi, onakvoj na kakvu je većina nas navikla, mislite da vidite mapu mesta na kojima ljudi žive, pri čemu svetla osvetljavaju mesta gde ljudi žive. Međutim, ovde, na ovoj slici sveta, setite se da smo ponovo rastegli mapu. Svuda je ista gustina ljudi na ovoj mapi. Ako oblast nema ljudi, smanjili smo je tako da nestane. Tako da sve prikazujemo sa jednakom izraženošću. Svetla vam sada više ne pokazuju gde se ljudi nalaze, jer su ljudi svuda. Svetla na mapi - svetla u Londonu, Kairu, Tokiju, na istočnoj obali Sjedinjenih Država - svetla vam pokazuju mesta na kojima žive ljudi koji su tako raskalašni u pogledu energije da mogu da priušte da troše novac paleći svetla tako da zasijaju ka nebu, pa sateliti mogu da načine ovakvu sliku. Oblasti koje su mračne na mapi su ili oblasti u kojima ljudi nemaju toliko pristupa energiji, ili oblasti u kojima imaju, ali su naučili da prestanu da obasjavaju nebo svetlošću. Kada bih mogao da vam pokažem animaciju ove mape kroz vreme, videli biste da je Tokio postao tamniji, jer nakon cunamija u Japanu, Japan mora da računa na četvrtinu manje električne energije jer je ugasio nuklearne elektrane. A nije nastao smak sveta. Samo je sijalo manje svetla ka nebu.
There are a huge number of good news stories in the world. Infant mortality is falling and has been falling at an incredible rate. A few years ago, the number of babies dying in their first year of life in the world fell by five percent in just one year. More children are going to school and learning to read and write and getting connected to the Internet and going on to go to university than ever before at an incredible rate, and the highest number of young people going to university in the world are women, not men. I can give you good news story after good news story about what is getting better in the planet, but we tend to concentrate on the bad news that is immediate. Rebecca Solnit, I think, put it brilliantly, when she explained: "The accretion of incremental, imperceptible changes which can constitute progress and which render our era dramatically different from the past" -- the past was much more stable -- "a contrast obscured by the undramatic nature of gradual transformation, punctuated by occasional tumult." Occasionally, terrible things happen. You are shown those terrible things on the news every night of the week. You are not told about the population slowing down. You are not told about the world becoming more connected. You are not told about the incredible improvements in understanding. You are not told about how we are learning to begin to waste less and consume less.
Postoji veliki broj dobrih vesti u svetu. Smrtnost novorođenčadi opada i to neverovatnim tempom. Pre nekoliko godina, broj beba na svetu koje umiru u svojoj prvoj godini života opao je za pet procenata za samo godinu dana. Više dece ide u školu, uči da čita i piše, povezuje se na internet i pohađa univerzitete nego ikada ranije neverovatnim tempom, a najveći broj mladih na svetu koji pohađaju univerzitete su žene, ne muškarci. Mogu vam izneti dobre vesti za dobrim vestima o tome šta se poboljšava na planeti, ali skloni smo da se usredsredimo na loše vesti koje su neposredne. Rebeka Solnit je, po meni, briljantno to izrazila kada je objasnila: „Gomilanje postepenih, neprimetnih promena koje može sačinjavati napredak i koje dovodi do toga da se naše doba dramatično razlikuje od prošlosti“ - prošlost je bila mnogo stabilnija - „kontrast koji zaklanja nedramatična priroda postepenog preobražaja, isprekidana povremenom uzburkanošću.“ Povremeno se dešavaju užasne stvari. Te grozne stvari vam pokazuju u vestima svake večeri u nedelji. Ne govore vam o populaciji koja usporava, o svetu koji postaje povezaniji, o neverovatnim poboljšanjima u razumevanju. Ne govore vam o tome kako saznajemo da počnemo da manje rasipamo i trošimo.
This is my last map. On this map, we have taken the seas and the oceans out. Now you are just looking at about 7.4 billion people with the map drawn in proportion to those people. You're looking at over a billion in China, and you can see the largest city in the world in China, but you do not know its name. You can see that India is in the center of this world. You can see that Europe is on the edge. And we in Exeter today are on the far edge of the planet. We are on a tiny scrap of rock off Europe which contains less than one percent of the world's adults, and less than half a percent of the world's children. We are living in a stabilizing world, an urbanizing world, an aging world, a connecting world. There are many, many things to be frightened about, but there is no need for us to fear each other as much as we do, and we need to see that we are now living in a new world.
Ovo je moja poslednja mapa. Na njoj smo izostavili mora i okeane. Sada samo gledate u oko 7,4 milijarde ljudi, pri čemu je mapa nacrtana srazmerno tim ljudima. Gledate u preko milijardu ljudi u Kini i možete videti najveći grad na svetu u Kini, ali ne znate njegovo ime. Možete videti da je Indija u središtu ovog sveta. Možete videti da je Evropa na ivici. A mi danas na Egzeteru nalazimo se na krajnjoj ivici planete. Na malom komadiću stene smo izvan Evrope koji sadrži manje od jednog procenta odraslih osoba na svetu i manje od polovine procenta svetske populacije dece. Živimo u svetu koji se stabilizuje i urbanizuje, koji stari, povezuje se. Postoji mnogo stvari zbog kojih se treba plašiti, ali nema potrebe da se bojimo jedni drugih onoliko koliko se bojimo, i potrebno je da uvidimo da sada živimo u novom svetu.
Thank you very much.
Mnogo vam hvala.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)