We all make decisions every day; we want to know what the right thing is to do -- in domains from the financial to the gastronomic to the professional to the romantic. And surely, if somebody could really tell us how to do exactly the right thing at all possible times, that would be a tremendous gift.
Svi mi svakodevno donosimo odluke; želimo znati kako učiniti pravu stvar - u područjima financija, preko gastronomije i struke, do ljubavi. I sigurno, kada bi nam netko stvarno mogao reći kako učiniti baš pravu stvar u bilo koje vrijeme, to bi bio ogroman dar.
It turns out that, in fact, the world was given this gift in 1738 by a Dutch polymath named Daniel Bernoulli. And what I want to talk to you about today is what that gift is, and I also want to explain to you why it is that it hasn't made a damn bit of difference.
Pa, u stvari, svijet je dobio taj dar 1738., od svestranog Nizozemca, Daniela Bernoullia. Danas vam želim govoriti o tome što je taj dar, i također vam želim objasniti zašto nije doprinjeo apsolutno ničemu.
Now, this is Bernoulli's gift. This is a direct quote. And if it looks like Greek to you, it's because, well, it's Greek. But the simple English translation -- much less precise, but it captures the gist of what Bernoulli had to say -- was this: The expected value of any of our actions -- that is, the goodness that we can count on getting -- is the product of two simple things: the odds that this action will allow us to gain something, and the value of that gain to us.
Sad, ovo je Bernoullijev dar. Direktno citiran. I ako izgleda nerazumljivo - pa, pisan je na grčkom. Ali jednostavan hrvatski prijevod - puno manje precizan, ali vjeran srži onoga što je Bernoulli želio reći - je ovaj: Očekivana korisnost bilo koje naše radnje - dobit koju možemo očekivati - je umnožak dvije jednostavne stvari: vjerojatnosti da će nam neka radnja omogućiti dobit, i vrijednosti koju nam predstavlja ta dobit.
In a sense, what Bernoulli was saying is, if we can estimate and multiply these two things, we will always know precisely how we should behave.
U nekom smislu, što je Bernoulli govorio je da, ako možemo procijeniti i pomnožiti ove dvije stvari, uvijek ćemo znati točno kako se ponašati.
Now, this simple equation, even for those of you who don't like equations, is something that you're quite used to. Here's an example: if I were to tell you, let's play a little coin toss game, and I'm going to flip a coin, and if it comes up heads, I'm going to pay you 10 dollars, but you have to pay four dollars for the privilege of playing with me, most of you would say, sure, I'll take that bet. Because you know that the odds of you winning are one half, the gain if you do is 10 dollars, that multiplies to five, and that's more than I'm charging you to play. So, the answer is, yes. This is what statisticians technically call a damn fine bet.
Ova jednostavna jednadžba je, čak i za one koji ne vole jednadžbe, nešto na što ste prilično navikli. Evo primjera: Kada bih vam rekao, 'ajmo igrati jednu igru s novčićima. Ja ću baciti novčić, ako padne glava dat ću vam 10 dolara, ali mi morate platiti četiri dolara da bi ste igrali sa mnom. Većina vas bi rekla: može, prihvaćam okladu. Zato što znate da su izgledi za pobjedu jedna polovina, dobit u tom slučaju je 10 dolara, što ispadne pet, što je više nego što vam naplaćujem za igru. Dakle, odgovor je: da. Ovo statističari stručno nazivaju vraški dobrom okladom.
Now, the idea is simple when we're applying it to coin tosses, but in fact, it's not very simple in everyday life. People are horrible at estimating both of these things, and that's what I want to talk to you about today.
Sad, ideja je jednostavna kad ju se primjenjuje na bacanje novčića, ali zapravo, nije tako jednostavna u svakodnevnom životu. Ljudi užasno procjenjuju obje ove stvari, i to je ono o čemu želim razgovarati danas s vama.
There are two kinds of errors people make when trying to decide what the right thing is to do, and those are errors in estimating the odds that they're going to succeed, and errors in estimating the value of their own success. Now, let me talk about the first one first. Calculating odds would seem to be something rather easy: there are six sides to a die, two sides to a coin, 52 cards in a deck. You all know what the likelihood is of pulling the ace of spades or of flipping a heads. But as it turns out, this is not a very easy idea to apply in everyday life. That's why Americans spend more -- I should say, lose more -- gambling than on all other forms of entertainment combined. The reason is, this isn't how people do odds.
Postoje dvije greške koje ljudi čine kada pokušavaju odlučiti kako napraviti pravu stvar: greške u procjeni izgleda za uspjeh i greške u procjeni vrijednosti vlastitog uspjeha. Govoriti ću prvo o prvoj. Računati vjerojatnost se čini prilično lakim: postoji 6 strana na kocki, dve strane na novčiću, 52 karte u špilu. Svi znate koliko je vjerovatno da ćete izvući asa pika ili da će "pasti glava". Ali kako ispada, ova ideja nije lako primjenjiva na svakodnevni život. Zato Amerikanci potroše više - trebao bih reći, izgube više - kockajući, nego na sve druge oblike zabave zajedno. To je zato što ljudi ne računaju vjerojatnosti tako.
The way people figure odds requires that we first talk a bit about pigs. Now, the question I'm going to put to you is whether you think there are more dogs or pigs on leashes observed in any particular day in Oxford. And of course, you all know that the answer is dogs. And the way that you know that the answer is dogs is you quickly reviewed in memory the times you've seen dogs and pigs on leashes. It was very easy to remember seeing dogs, not so easy to remember pigs. And each one of you assumed that if dogs on leashes came more quickly to your mind, then dogs on leashes are more probable. That's not a bad rule of thumb, except when it is.
Način na koji ljudi računaju vjerojatnost traži da prvo razgovaramo o svinjama. Što mislite, da li ima više pasa ili svinja na uzicama viđenih nekoga dana u Oxfordu. I naravno, svi znate da je odgovor: pasa. A znate da je odgovor "pasa" zato što ste se na brzinu prisjetili slučajeva u kojima ste vidjeli pse i svinje na uzicama. Bilo je vrlo lako prisjetiti se da ste vidjeli pse; ne tako lako sjetiti se svinja. I svatko je od vas pretpostavio da ako je lakše prisjetiti se pasa na uzicama, onda su psi na uzicama vjerojatniji. To nije loše opće pravilo, osim kada jest.
So, for example, here's a word puzzle. Are there more four-letter English words with R in the third place or R in the first place? Well, you check memory very briefly, make a quick scan, and it's awfully easy to say to yourself, Ring, Rang, Rung, and very hard to say to yourself, Pare, Park: they come more slowly. But in fact, there are many more words in the English language with R in the third than the first place. The reason words with R in the third place come slowly to your mind isn't because they're improbable, unlikely or infrequent. It's because the mind recalls words by their first letter. You kind of shout out the sound, S -- and the word comes. It's like the dictionary; it's hard to look things up by the third letter. So, this is an example of how this idea that the quickness with which things come to mind can give you a sense of their probability --
Evo, na primjer, zadatka sa riječima. Ima li u engleskom jeziku više riječi od četiri slova sa "R" na trećem mjestu ili sa "R" na prvom mjestu? Pa, provjeriti ćete nakratko u sjećanju, brzo pregledati, i strašno je lako reći sebi, Ring, Rang, Rung, a jako je teško reći si Pare, Park: ove riječi dolaze sporije. Ali zapravo, postoji puno više riječi u engleskom jeziku sa "R" na trećem mjestu, nego na prvom. Riječi kod kojih je "R" na trećem mjestu dolaze sporije do svijesti ne zato što su manje vjerojatne, neobične ili rijetke. To je zato što se um prisjeća riječi po prvom slovu. Izviknete glas "S" i riječ sama dođe. To je kao i u rječniku - teško je tražiti stvari po trećem slovu. Dakle, ovo je primjer kako ideja da vam brzina kojom se um prisjeća stvari može dati osjećaj o njenoj vjerojatnosti -
how this idea could lead you astray. It's not just puzzles, though. For example, when Americans are asked to estimate the odds that they will die in a variety of interesting ways -- these are estimates of number of deaths per year per 200 million U.S. citizens. And these are just ordinary people like yourselves who are asked to guess how many people die from tornado, fireworks, asthma, drowning, etc. Compare these to the actual numbers.
ta ideja može zavarati. I to ne samo u zagonetkama. Na primjer, kada Amerikance pitate da procjene vjerojatnost da će umrijeti na neki zanimljiv način - to su procjene broja godišnjih smrtnih slučajeva na 200 milijuna amerikanaca. Pitaju obične ljude, kao što ste vi, da procijene koliko ljudi umre u tornadima, od vatrometa, astme, utapanjem, itd. Usporedite te brojeve sa stvarnima.
Now, you see a very interesting pattern here, which is first of all, two things are vastly over-estimated, namely tornadoes and fireworks. Two things are vastly underestimated: dying by drowning and dying by asthma. Why? When was the last time that you picked up a newspaper and the headline was, "Boy dies of Asthma?" It's not interesting because it's so common. It's very easy for all of us to bring to mind instances of news stories or newsreels where we've seen tornadoes devastating cities, or some poor schmuck who's blown his hands off with a firework on the Fourth of July. Drownings and asthma deaths don't get much coverage. They don't come quickly to mind, and as a result, we vastly underestimate them.
Vidi se vrlo zanimljiv trend. Prvo, dvije stvari su jako precjenjene: tornada i vatrometi; a dvije su jako podcjenjene: smrt utapanjem i smrt od astme. Zašto? Kada ste zadnji put uzeli novine u kojima je naslov bio "Dječak umro od astme?" To nije zanimljivo jer je tako uobičajeno. Svima nam je lako prisjetiti se slučajeva iz vijesti ili novina kada smo vidjeli kako tornada ruše gradove, ili nekog jadnika koji si je raznio ruke vatrometom za Novu godinu. Utapanja i astma nisu pretjerano medijski pokriveni. Njih se ne prisjećamo lako i zato ih znatno potcjenjujemo.
Indeed, this is kind of like the Sesame Street game of "Which thing doesn't belong?" And you're right to say it's the swimming pool that doesn't belong, because the swimming pool is the only thing on this slide that's actually very dangerous. The way that more of you are likely to die than the combination of all three of the others that you see on the slide.
Stvarno, ovo je kao igra iz Ulice Sezam, "Koja stvar ne pripada?" I u pravu ste kada kažete da je bazen taj koji ne pripada, zato što je bazen jedina stvar na ovoj slici koja je zapravo vrlo opasna. Vjerojatnije je da ćete umrijeti taj način nego od tri preostala načina skupa.
The lottery is an excellent example, of course -- an excellent test-case of people's ability to compute probabilities. And economists -- forgive me, for those of you who play the lottery -- but economists, at least among themselves, refer to the lottery as a stupidity tax, because the odds of getting any payoff by investing your money in a lottery ticket are approximately equivalent to flushing the money directly down the toilet -- which, by the way, doesn't require that you actually go to the store and buy anything.
Loto je odličan primjer, naravno - odličan slučaj za testiranje ljudske sposobnosti računanja vjerojatnosti. I ekonomisti - oprostite, vi koji igrate loto - ali ekonomisti, bar između sebe, nazivaju loto porezom na glupost, jer su izgledi da vam se isplati ulaganje novca u kupnju listića približno jednaki bacanju novca direktno u WC školjku - što, usput, ne traži da stvarno odete u trgovinu i kupite nešto.
Why in the world would anybody ever play the lottery? Well, there are many answers, but one answer surely is, we see a lot of winners. Right? When this couple wins the lottery, or Ed McMahon shows up at your door with this giant check -- how the hell do you cash things that size, I don't know. We see this on TV; we read about it in the paper. When was the last time that you saw extensive interviews with everybody who lost? Indeed, if we required that television stations run a 30-second interview with each loser every time they interview a winner, the 100 million losers in the last lottery would require nine-and-a-half years of your undivided attention just to watch them say, "Me? I lost." "Me? I lost." Now, if you watch nine-and-a-half years of television -- no sleep, no potty breaks -- and you saw loss after loss after loss, and then at the end there's 30 seconds of, "and I won," the likelihood that you would play the lottery is very small.
Zašto bi itko ikad igrao loto? Pa, postoje mnogi odgovori, ali je jedan zasigurno, taj da vidimo dosta pobjednika. Zar ne? Kada ovaj par dobije na lotu, ili kada se poznati voditelj pojavi na vašem pragu sa ogromnim čekom - kako se kvragu unovčuje stvar te veličine, ne znam. Vidimo ovo na televiziji; čitamo o tome u novinama. Kada ste zadnji put vidjeli iscrpne intervjue sa svima koji su izgubili? Uistinu, kada bi tražili da televizijske kuće prikažu intervju od 30 sekundi sa svima koji su izgubili svaki put kada intervjuiraju pobjednika, 100 miliona gubitnika u zadnjem krugu lota bi uzeli devet i po godina vaše nepodjeljene pažnje samo da bi ih odgledali kako kažu "Ja? Izgubio." "Ja? Izgubio." Sad, ako bi ste gledali devet i pol' godina televizije -- bez sna, bez piš-pauze - gledanja samo u gubitnike, gubitnike, gubitnike i onda na kraju bude 30 sekundi gdje netko kaže "Ja sam pobijedio!", vjerojatnost da bi ste igrali loto bila bi vrlo mala.
Look, I can prove this to you: here's a little lottery. There's 10 tickets in this lottery. Nine of them have been sold to these individuals. It costs you a dollar to buy the ticket and, if you win, you get 20 bucks. Is this a good bet? Well, Bernoulli tells us it is. The expected value of this lottery is two dollars; this is a lottery in which you should invest your money. And most people say, "OK, I'll play."
Gledajte, mogu vam to dokazati: evo malog lota. Postoji 10 listića u ovom lotu. Devet ih je prodano ovim osobama. Kupnja listića košta vas jedan dolar, a ako pobjedite, dobijate 20 zelembaća. Je li ovo dobra oklada? Pa, Bernoulli nam kaže da je: očekivana vrijednost od ove igre je dva dolara; ovo je loto u koji bi ste trebali uložiti vaš novac. I većina ljudi kaže, "OK, igrati ću."
Now, a slightly different version of this lottery: imagine that the nine tickets are all owned by one fat guy named Leroy. Leroy has nine tickets; there's one left. Do you want it? Most people won't play this lottery. Now, you can see the odds of winning haven't changed, but it's now fantastically easy to imagine who's going to win. It's easy to see Leroy getting the check, right? You can't say to yourself, "I'm as likely to win as anybody," because you're not as likely to win as Leroy. The fact that all those tickets are owned by one guy changes your decision to play, even though it does nothing whatsoever to the odds.
Sad, malo drugačija verzija ovog lota: zamislite preostalih devet listića ima jedan debeli tip, koji se zove Leroy. Leroy ima devet listića; ostao je jedan. Da li ga želite? Većina ljudi neće igrati ovaj loto. Sad, možete vidjeti da se izgledi za pobjedu nisu promijenili, ali je sada fantastično jednostavno zamisliti ko će pobijediti. Lako je vidjeti Leroya sa čekom, zar ne? Ne možete reći: "Imam jednake šanse kao i drugi", zato što nemate jednake šanse kao Leroy. Činjenica da su svi ostali listići u vlasništvu jednog tipa mijenja vašu odluku o igranju, iako ni na koji način ne mijenja vjerojatnost pobjede.
Now, estimating odds, as difficult as it may seem, is a piece of cake compared to trying to estimate value: trying to say what something is worth, how much we'll enjoy it, how much pleasure it will give us. I want to talk now about errors in value. How much is this Big Mac worth? Is it worth 25 dollars? Most of you have the intuition that it's not -- you wouldn't pay that for it.
Sad, procjena izglednosti, koliko god se činila teškom, je laka kad se usporedi sa pokušajima procjene vrijednosti: pokušavanje određenja vrijednosti nečega, koliko ćemo uživati u tome, koliko će nam zadovoljstva donijeti. Sada želim pričati o pogreškama u vrijednosti. Koliko je vrijedan ovaj hamburger? Da li je vrijedan 25 dolara? Većina bi intuitivno rekla da nije - ne bi ste toliko platili za njega.
But in fact, to decide whether a Big Mac is worth 25 dollars requires that you ask one, and only one question, which is: What else can I do with 25 dollars? If you've ever gotten on one of those long-haul flights to Australia and realized that they're not going to serve you any food, but somebody in the row in front of you has just opened the McDonald's bag, and the smell of golden arches is wafting over the seat, you think, I can't do anything else with this 25 dollars for 16 hours. I can't even set it on fire -- they took my cigarette lighter! Suddenly, 25 dollars for a Big Mac might be a good deal.
Ali zapravo, da bi ste odlučili je li Big Mac vrijedan 25 dolara potrebno je zapitati se jedno, i samo jedno pitanje, koje je: Šta još mogu sa 25 dolara? Ako ste ikada bili na jednom od onih dugotrajnih putovanja do Australije i shvatili ste da vam neće posluživati nikakvu hranu, a netko iz reda ispred vas otvara vrećicu iz McDonaldsa, i taj miris prelazi preko vašeg sjedala, pomislite, ne mogu ništa učiniti sa ovih 25 dolara u narednih 16 sati. Ne mogu ih čak ni zapaliti - uzeli su mi upaljač! Odjednom, 25 dolara za Big Mac se čini dobrom pogodbom.
On the other hand, if you're visiting an underdeveloped country, and 25 dollars buys you a gourmet meal, it's exorbitant for a Big Mac. Why were you all sure that the answer to the question was no, before I'd even told you anything about the context? Because most of you compared the price of this Big Mac to the price you're used to paying. Rather than asking, "What else can I do with my money," comparing this investment to other possible investments, you compared to the past. And this is a systematic error people make. What you knew is, you paid three dollars in the past; 25 is outrageous.
S druge strane, ako posjećujete nerazvijenu zemlju, i za 25 dolara možete dobiti gurmansko jelo, to je daleko previše za Big Mac. Zašto ste svi bili sigurni da je odgovor na pitanje "Ne", čak i prije nego što sam vam rekao bilo što o kontekstu? Zato što je većina vas usporedila cijenu ovog Big Maca sa cijenom na koju ste navikli. Rađe nego da pitate, "Što još mogu učiniti sa mojim novcem", uspoređujući ovo ulaganje sa drugim mogućim, vi ste usporedili sa prošlošću. I ovo je sistematska pogreška koju ljudi čine. Znali ste da ste ranije plaćali 3 dolara; 25 je nečuveno skupo.
This is an error, and I can prove it to you by showing the kinds of irrationalities to which it leads. For example, this is, of course, one of the most delicious tricks in marketing, is to say something used to be higher, and suddenly it seems like a very good deal. When people are asked about these two different jobs: a job where you make 60K, then 50K, then 40K, a job where you're getting a salary cut each year, and one in which you're getting a salary increase, people like the second job better than the first, despite the fact they're all told they make much less money. Why? Because they had the sense that declining wages are worse than rising wages, even when the total amount of wages is higher in the declining period. Here's another nice example.
Ovo je greška, i to vam mogu dokazati pokažem li vam razne iracionalnosti kojima ona vodi. Na primjer, ovo je, naravno, jedan od najslađih trikova u marketingu; reći da je nešto nekad bilo skuplje, i odjednom izgleda kao vrlo dobra pogodba. Kad se ljude pita za dva različita posla: posao na kojem zarađujete 60 tisuća, pa 50, pa 40, posao na kojem vam svake godine smanjuju plaću, i jedan na kojem dobijate povišicu, ljudi više vole drugi posao od prvog, usprkos činjenici da je svima rečeno da će zaraditi puno manje. Zašto? Zato što smatraju da su smanjenja plaće lošija od povišica, iako je ukupna zarađena svota veća kod smanjujućih. Evo još jednog lijepog primjera.
Here's a $2,000 Hawaiian vacation package; it's now on sale for 1,600. Assuming you wanted to go to Hawaii, would you buy this package? Most people say they would. Here's a slightly different story: $2,000 Hawaiian vacation package is now on sale for 700 dollars, so you decide to mull it over for a week. By the time you get to the ticket agency, the best fares are gone -- the package now costs 1,500. Would you buy it? Most people say, no. Why? Because it used to cost 700, and there's no way I'm paying 1,500 for something that was 700 last week.
Aranžman za odmor na Havajima za 2000 dolara sad se prodaje za 1600. Pretpostavimo da ste htjeli ići na Havaje, biste li kupili ovaj aranžman? Većina ljudi kaže da bi. Evo malo drugačije priče: Aranžman za odmor na Havajima, koji je koštao 2000 dolara sad se prodaje za 700, pa odlučite razmisliti o tome kroz tjedan. Kad svratite do agencije, akcija je završila aranžman sad stoji 1500. Bi ste li ga kupili? Većina ljudi bi rekla, ne. Zašto? Zato što je koštao 700 i nema šanse da sad platim 1500 za nešto što je prošlog tjedna bilo 700.
This tendency to compare to the past is causing people to pass up the better deal. In other words, a good deal that used to be a great deal is not nearly as good as an awful deal that was once a horrible deal.
Ova tendencija uspoređivanja sa prošlošću čini da ljudi propuste bolju priliku. Drugim riječima, dobra prilika koja je nekad bila odlična nije ni približno dobra kao loša prilika koja je nekad bila užasna.
Here's another example of how comparing to the past can befuddle our decisions. Imagine that you're going to the theater. You're on your way to the theater. In your wallet you have a ticket, for which you paid 20 dollars. You also have a 20-dollar bill. When you arrive at the theater, you discover that somewhere along the way you've lost the ticket. Would you spend your remaining money on replacing it? Most people answer, no. Now, let's just change one thing in this scenario. You're on your way to the theater, and in your wallet you have two 20-dollar bills. When you arrive you discover you've lost one of them. Would you spend your remaining 20 dollars on a ticket? Well, of course, I went to the theater to see the play. What does the loss of 20 dollars along the way have to do?
Evo još jednog primjera kako nas uspoređivanje s prošlošću može zbuniti pri donošenju odluka. Zamislite da idete u kazalište. Na putu ste do kazališta. U novčaniku imate ulaznicu koju ste platili 20 dolara. Također imate i novčanicu od 20 dolara. Kada stignete do kazališta, otkrivate da ste putem izgubili ulaznicu. Bi ste li potrošili ostatak vašeg novca na novu ulaznicu? Većina ljudi odgovara da ne bi. Sad, promjenimo samo jednu stvar u scenariju. Na putu ste do kazališta, a u novčaniku imate dvije novčanice od 20 dolara. Kad ste stigli otkrivate da ste izgubili jednu od njih. Bi ste li potrošili preostalih 20 dolara na ulaznicu? Pa, naravno: Došao sam u kazalište da pogledam predstavu. Kakve veze ima to što sam izgubio 20 dolara putem?
Now, just in case you're not getting it, here's a schematic of what happened, OK? (Laughter) Along the way, you lost something. In both cases, it was a piece of paper. In one case, it had a U.S. president on it; in the other case it didn't. What the hell difference should it make? The difference is that when you lost the ticket you say to yourself, I'm not paying twice for the same thing. You compare the cost of the play now -- 40 dollars -- to the cost that it used to have -- 20 dollars -- and you say it's a bad deal. Comparing with the past causes many of the problems that behavioral economists and psychologists identify in people's attempts to assign value. But even when we compare with the possible, instead of the past, we still make certain kinds of mistakes. And I'm going to show you one or two of them.
Sad, za slučaj da niste shvatili, evo shematskog prikaza događaja, OK? (Smijeh) Putem, nešto ste izgubili. U oba slučaja to je bio komadić papira. U jednom slučaju bio je sa slikom američkog predsjednika, a u drugom nije. Koja bi, kvragu, trebala biti razlika? Razlika je, kada ste izgubili kartu pomislili ste, neću platiti dva puta istu stvar. Usporedili ste sadašnju cijenu predstave: 40 dolara s prijašnjom od 20 dolara i pomislili ste kako je to loša pogodba. Uspoređivanje sa prošlošću uzrokuje puno problema koje bihevioralni ekonomisti i psiholozi nalaze u ljudskim pokušajima određenja vrijednosti. Ali čak i kada uspoređujemo sa mogućim, umjesto sa prošlošću, i dalje činimo razne greške. Pokazati ću vam jednu ili dve.
One of the things we know about comparison: that when we compare one thing to the other, it changes its value. So in 1992, this fellow, George Bush, for those of us who were kind of on the liberal side of the political spectrum, didn't seem like such a great guy. Suddenly, we're almost longing for him to return. (Laughter) The comparison changes how we evaluate him.
Jedna od stvari koju znamo o uspoređivanju je; prilikom uspoređivanja dve stvari dolazi do promjene njihovih vrijednosti. Tako se u 1992. ovaj momak, George Bush, za nas koji smo bili, tako reći na liberalnoj strani političkog spektra, nije činio pretjerano dobrim tipom. Odjednom, gotovo da čeznemo za njegovim povratkom. (Smijeh) Usporedba mijenja način na koji ga vrednujemo.
Now, retailers knew this long before anybody else did, of course, and they use this wisdom to help you -- spare you the undue burden of money. And so a retailer, if you were to go into a wine shop and you had to buy a bottle of wine, and you see them here for eight, 27 and 33 dollars, what would you do? Most people don't want the most expensive, they don't want the least expensive. So, they will opt for the item in the middle. If you're a smart retailer, then, you will put a very expensive item that nobody will ever buy on the shelf, because suddenly the $33 wine doesn't look as expensive in comparison.
Sad, prodavači su ovo znali davno prije drugih, naravno, i oni koriste ovu mudrost kako bi vam pomogli -- da vas poštede nepravednog tereta novca. Na mjestu prodavača; ako bi ste ušli u vinariju i morali bi ste kupiti bocu vina, a vidite ih ovdje za 8, 27 i 33 dolara, što bi ste učinili? Većina ljudi ne želi najskuplje, a ne želi ni najjeftinije. Pa će se odlučiti za stvar u sredini. Ako ste pametan prodavač, onda ćete staviti jako skup artikal na policu, koji nitko nikada neće kupiti, jer odjednom se vino od 33 dolara ne čini tako skupim u usporedbi.
So I'm telling you something you already knew: namely, that comparison changes the value of things. Here's why that's a problem: the problem is that when you get that $33 bottle of wine home, it won't matter what it used to be sitting on the shelf next to. The comparisons we make when we are appraising value, where we're trying to estimate how much we'll like things, are not the same comparisons we'll be making when we consume them. This problem of shifting comparisons can bedevil our attempts to make rational decisions.
Dakle, govorim vam nešto što ste već znali: naime, da usporedba mijenja vrijednost stvari. Evo zašto je to problem: problem je što, kad donesete kući to vino od 33 dolara neće biti važno pored čega se ono nalazilo na polici. Uspoređivanja koja vršimo dok procjenjujemo vrijednost, kada pokušavamo ocjeniti koliko će nam se stvari sviđati, nisu ista uspoređivanja koja ćemo vršiti prilikom konzumacije istih. Ovaj problem promjenjivih usporedbi može osujetiti pokušaje donošenja racionalnih odluka.
Let me just give you an example. I have to show you something from my own lab, so let me sneak this in. These are subjects coming to an experiment to be asked the simplest of all questions: How much will you enjoy eating potato chips one minute from now? They're sitting in a room with potato chips in front of them. For some of the subjects, sitting in the far corner of a room is a box of Godiva chocolates, and for others is a can of Spam. In fact, these items that are sitting in the room change how much the subjects think they're going to enjoy the potato chips. Namely, those who are looking at Spam think potato chips are going to be quite tasty; those who are looking at Godiva chocolate think they won't be nearly so tasty. Of course, what happens when they eat the potato chips? Well, look, you didn't need a psychologist to tell you that when you have a mouthful of greasy, salty, crispy, delicious snacks, what's sitting in the corner of the room makes not a damn bit of difference to your gustatory experience. Nonetheless, their predictions are perverted by a comparison that then does not carry through and change their experience.
Dati ću vam primjer. Moram vam pokazati nešto iz vlastitog laboratorija; samo da provučem ovo. Ovo su ispitanici koji će u ogledu biti pitani najjednostavnije pitanje: Koliko ćete uživati jedući čips, za jednu minutu od sada? Oni sjede u sobi a čips je ispred njih. Kod nekih ispitanika, u udaljenom kutu sobe nalazi se kutija Godiva čokolada, a kod drugih konzerva mesnog doručka. Zapravo, ove stvari koje se nalaze u sobi mijenjaju koliko ispitanici misle da će uživati u čipsu. Naime, oni koji gledaju u mesni doručak misle da će čips biti baš ukusan; a oni koji gledaju Godiva čokolade misle da neće biti ni približno ukusan. Naravno, šta se desi kada pojedu čips? Pa, gledajte, ne treba vam psiholog da vam kaže da kad su vam usta puna masne, slane, hrskave, ukusne zakuske, ono što se nalazi u kutu sobe baš nikako ne utječe na vaše gustatorno iskustvo. Svejedno, njihova predviđanja su iskrivljena usporedbom koja ipak ne mijenja njihovo iskustvo.
You've all experienced this yourself, even if you've never come into our lab to eat potato chips. So here's a question: You want to buy a car stereo. The dealer near your house sells this particular stereo for 200 dollars, but if you drive across town, you can get it for 100 bucks. So would you drive to get 50 percent off, saving 100 dollars? Most people say they would. They can't imagine buying it for twice the price when, with one trip across town, they can get it for half off.
Svi ste ovo i sami iskusili, čak i ako nikad niste došli pojesti čips u naš laboratorij, pa evo pitanja: Želite kupiti auto-radio. Trgovina pored vaše kuće prodaje radio koji želite za 200 dolara, ali ako bi ste se odvezli na drugu stranu grada, mogli bi ste ga kupiti za 100. Dakle, bi ste li vozili za popust od 50% i uštedjeli 100 dolara? Većina ljudi kaže da bi. Ne mogu zamisliti da ga kupe po duploj cijeni kada ga, samo da se odvezu preko grada, mogu kupiti za duplo manje.
Now, let's imagine instead you wanted to buy a car that had a stereo, and the dealer near your house had it for 31,000. But if you drove across town, you could get it for 30,900. Would you drive to get it? At this point, 0.003 savings -- the 100 dollars. Most people say, no, I'm going to schlep across town to save 100 bucks on the purchase of a car?
Sad, zamislimo umjeto ovoga da želite kupiti auto koji ima radio, a trgovina pored vaše kuće ga prodaje za 31.000. Ali ako bi ste se odvezli preko grada, mogli bi ste ga kupiti za 30.900. Bi ste li vozili da ga kupite? Ovog puta, ušteda je 0.003 posto - 100 dolara. Većina kaže da se ne bi vukla na drugu stranu grada kako bi uštedila 100 dolara na kupnji automobila.
This kind of thinking drives economists crazy, and it should. Because this 100 dollars that you save -- hello! -- doesn't know where it came from. It doesn't know what you saved it on. When you go to buy groceries with it, it doesn't go, I'm the money saved on the car stereo, or, I'm the dumb money saved on the car. It's money. And if a drive across town is worth 100 bucks, it's worth 100 bucks no matter what you're saving it on. People don't think that way. That's why they don't know whether their mutual fund manager is taking 0.1 percent or 0.15 percent of their investment, but they clip coupons to save one dollar off of toothpaste.
Ovakav način razmišljanja izluđuje ekonomiste, a i trebao bi. Ovih 100 dolara koje ste uštedjeli - haloo! - ne znaju odakle su došli. Ne znaju na čemu ste ih uštedjeli. Kad odete u dućan s njima ne kažu: ja sam novac ušteđen na auto-radiju, ili ja sam glupi novac ušteđen na autu. To je samo novac. Ako je vožnja preko grada vrijedna 100 dolara, onda vrijedi 100 dolara bez obzira na čemu ste ih uštedjeli. Ali ljudi ne razmišljaju tako. Zato ne znaju uzima li upravitelj njihovog fonda 0,1 posto, ili 0,15 posto od njihovih ulaganja, ali zato skupljaju kupone kako bi uštedjeli par kuna na pasti za zube.
Now, you can see, this is the problem of shifting comparisons, because what you're doing is, you're comparing the 100 bucks to the purchase that you're making, but when you go to spend that money you won't be making that comparison. You've all had this experience.
Sad, kako možete vidjeti, ovo je problem kod promjenjivih usporedbi, jer vi zapravo uspoređujete tih 100 dolara sa kupovinom koju obavljate, ali kad budete trošili taj novac, nećete činiti tu usporedbu. Svi ste imali ovakvo iskustvo.
If you're an American, for example, you've probably traveled in France. And at some point you may have met a couple from your own hometown, and you thought, "Oh, my God, these people are so warm. They're so nice to me. I mean, compared to all these people who hate me when I try to speak their language and hate me more when I don't, these people are just wonderful." And so you tour France with them, and then you get home and you invite them over for dinner, and what do you find? Compared to your regular friends, they are boring and dull, right? Because in this new context, the comparison is very, very different. In fact, you find yourself disliking them enough almost to qualify for French citizenship.
Ako ste Amerikanac, na primjer, vjerojatno ste putovali u Francusku. Na putovanju ste možda upoznali par iz vašeg rodnog grada, i pomislili ste, "Moj Bože, ovi ljudi su tako topli. Tako su dobri prema meni. Mislim, u usporedbi sa svim ovim ljudima koji me mrze kad pokušavam govoriti njihovim jezikom, a još i više kad ne pokušavam, ovi ljudi su stvarno divni." I tako proputujete Francuskom sa njima, a kad se vratite kući, pozovete ih na večeru, i šta otkrijete? U usporedbi sa vašim stalnim prijateljima, ovi su dosadni i glupi! Zato što u ovom novom kontekstu, usporedba je vrlo, vrlo drugačija. Zapravo, shvaćate da su vam toliko mrski da bi ste se prijavili za francusko državljanstvo.
Now, you have exactly the same problem when you shop for a stereo. You go to the stereo store, you see two sets of speakers -- these big, boxy, monoliths, and these little, sleek speakers, and you play them, and you go, you know, I do hear a difference: the big ones sound a little better. And so you buy them, and you bring them home, and you entirely violate the décor of your house. And the problem, of course, is that this comparison you made in the store is a comparison you'll never make again. What are the odds that years later you'll turn on the stereo and go, "Sounds so much better than those little ones," which you can't even remember hearing.
Sad, isti problem postoji i kad kupujete muzički uređaj. Odete u trgovinu i tamo vidite 2 para zvučnika - ovi veliki, kutijasti monoliti i ovi mali, elegantni zvučnici. Slušate ih, i pomislite, znaš, stvarno se čuje razlika: Ovi veliki se čuju malo bolje. Pa ih i kupite, donesete kući i, potpuno poremetite unutrašnje uređenje. A problem je, naravno, što je ta usporedba koju ste učinili u trgovini usporedba koju više nikada nećete učiniti. Koji su izgledi da ćete godinama kasnije pustiti muziku i reći, "Zvuče puno bolje od onih malih", kojih se ni ne sjećate da ste čuli.
The problem of shifting comparisons is even more difficult when these choices are arrayed over time. People have a lot of trouble making decisions about things that will happen at different points in time. And what psychologists and behavioral economists have discovered is that by and large people use two simple rules. So let me give you one very easy problem, a second very easy problem and then a third, hard, problem.
Problem promjenjivih usporedbi je još teži kada su odluke raspoređene kroz vrijeme. Ljudi imaju puno problema donoseći odluke o stvarima koje će se dogoditi u različitim vremenima. A psiholozi i bihevioralni ekonomisti su otkrili da ljudi uvelike koriste dva jednostavna pravila. Postaviti ću vam jedan vrlo lak problem, drugi vrlo lak problem i treći, težak problem.
Here's the first easy problem: You can have 60 dollars now or 50 dollars now. Which would you prefer? This is what we call a one-item IQ test, OK? All of us, I hope, prefer more money, and the reason is, we believe more is better than less.
Evo prvog lakog problema: Možete sada dobiti 60 dolara ili 50 dolara, isto sada. Što bi ste izabrali? Ovo nazivamo IQ testom s jednim pitanjem, OK? I svi smo, nadam se, odabrali više novca; iz razloga što vjerujemo da je više bolje nego manje.
Here's the second problem: You can have 60 dollars today or 60 dollars in a month. Which would you prefer? Again, an easy decision, because we all know that now is better than later. What's hard in our decision-making is when these two rules conflict. For example, when you're offered 50 dollars now or 60 dollars in a month. This typifies a lot of situations in life in which you will gain by waiting, but you have to be patient. What do we know? What do people do in these kinds of situations? Well, by and large people are enormously impatient. That is, they require interest rates in the hundred or thousands of percents in order to delay gratification and wait until next month for the extra 10 dollars. Maybe that isn't so remarkable, but what is remarkable is how easy it is to make this impatience go away by simply changing when the delivery of these monetary units will happen. Imagine that you can have 50 dollars in a year -- that's 12 months -- or 60 dollars in 13 months. What do we find now? People are gladly willing to wait: as long as they're waiting 12, they might as well wait 13.
Evo drugog problema: Možete dobiti 60 dolara sada, ili 60 dolara za mjesec dana. Što bi ste izabrali? Opet lagana odluka, jer svi znamo da je prije bolje nego kasnije. Teško je donositi odluke kada su ova dva pravila u sukobu. Na primjer, kada vam se ponudi 50 dolara sada, ili 60 za jedan mjesec. Ovo je tipični primjer mnogih situacija u životu u kojima bi ste zaradili čekanjem, ali bi ste morali biti strpljivi. Što mi znamo? Što ljudi čine u ovakvim situacijama? Pa, ljudi su najčešće vrlo nestrpljivi. To jest, traže da kamatna stopa bude stotine ili čak tisuće posto da odgode zadovoljenje i pričekaju do sljedećeg mjeseca za tih dodatnih 10 dolara. Možda to i nije neka naročita stvar, ali je značajno kako ovo nestrpljenje brzo nestaje ako jednostavno promjenimo vrijeme isporuke ovih monetarnih jedinica. Zamislite da možete dobiti 50 dolara za godinu dana - 12 mjeseci - ili 60 dolara za 13 mjeseci. Što sada nalazimo? Ljudi će rado čekati: kada već čekaju 12 mjeseci, mogli bi čekati i 13.
What makes this dynamic inconsistency happen? Comparison. Troubling comparison. Let me show you.
Što je uzrok ovoj dinamičnoj nedosljednosti? Usporedbe. Problematične usporedbe. Pokazati ću vam.
This is just a graph showing the results that I just suggested you would show if I gave you time to respond, which is, people find that the subjective value of 50 is higher than the subjective value of 60 when they'll be delivered in now or one month, respectively -- a 30-day delay -- but they show the reverse pattern when you push the entire decision off into the future a year. Now, why in the world do you get this pattern of results?
Ovaj graf pokazuje rezultate koje vjerujem da bi smo dobili da sam vam ostavio dovoljno vremena za odgovaranje, to jest, da ljudi smatraju da je subjektivna vrijednost od 50 veća od subjektivne vrijednosti 60, kada bi ih dobili sada, odnosno za jedan mjesec -- sa odgodom od 30 dana. Ali pokazuje se obrnut obrazac kada se cijela odluka pomjeri za godinu dana u budućnost. Sad, zašto uopće dobijamo ovakav uzorak rezultata?
These guys can tell us. What you see here are two lads, one of them larger than the other: the fireman and the fiddler. They are going to recede towards the vanishing point in the horizon, and I want you to notice two things. At no point will the fireman look taller than the fiddler. No point. However, the difference between them seems to be getting smaller. First it's an inch in your view, then it's a quarter-inch, then a half-inch, and then finally they go off the edge of the earth.
Ovi dečki nam mogu reći. Ovdje vidite dva dečka, jedan je veći od drugoga: vatrogasac i violinist. Oni će se postepeno primicati horizontu, sve dok ne nestanu, a ja želim da primjetite dvije stvari. U nijednom trenutku vatrogasac se neće činiti nižim od violinista. Ipak, čini se da se razlika među njima smanjuje. Prvo vam se čini kao tri centimetra; zatim dva centimetra, i tako dok napokon ne padnu sa ruba Zemlje.
Here are the results of what I just showed you. This is the subjective height -- the height you saw of these guys at various points. And I want you to see that two things are true. One, the farther away they are, the smaller they look; and two, the fireman is always bigger than the fiddler. But watch what happens when we make some of them disappear. Right. At a very close distance, the fiddler looks taller than the fireman, but at a far distance their normal, their true, relations are preserved. As Plato said, what space is to size, time is to value. These are the results of the hard problem I gave you: 60 now or 50 in a month? And these are subjective values, and what you can see is, our two rules are preserved.
Evo rezultata ovoga što sam vam upravo pokazao. Ovo je subjektivna visina - visina ove dvojice u raznim točkama. Želim da vidite kako su dvije stvari istinite. Prva, što su udaljeniji, to se čine manjima; i druga, vatrogasac je uvijek veći od violinista. Ali pogledajte što se događa kada maknemo neke od njih. Tako je. Sa male udaljenosti, violinist izgleda viši od vatrogasca, ali na većoj udaljenosti, njihov normalan, istinit odnos je očuvan. Kako je rekao Platon, prostor je veličini isto što i vrijeme vrijednosti. Ovo su rezultati teškog problema kojeg sam vam zadao: 60 sada ili 50 za jedan mjesec? A ovo su subjektivne vrijednosti, i možete vidjeti da su naša dva pravila očuvana.
People always think more is better than less: 60 is always better than 50, and they always think now is better than later: the bars on this side are higher than the bars on this side. Watch what happens when we drop some out. Suddenly we have the dynamic inconsistency that puzzled us. We have the tendency for people to go for 50 dollars now over waiting a month, but not if that decision is far in the future. Notice something interesting that this implies -- namely, that when people get to the future, they will change their minds. That is, as that month 12 approaches, you will say, what was I thinking, waiting an extra month for 60 dollars? I'll take the 50 dollars now.
Ljudi uvijek misle da je više bolje nego manje: 60 je uvijek bolje nego 50; i uvijek misle da je prije bolje nego kasnije: stupci s ove strane su viši nego stupci s ove strane. Gledajte što se događa kada izbacimo neke od njih. Odjednom imamo onu dinamičnu nedosljednost koja nas je bunila. Imamo trend u kojem ljudi uzimaju 50 dolara sada rađe nego da čekaju mjesec dana, ali ne ako je odluka pomjerena u budućnost. Primjetite zanimljivost na koju ovo ukazuje -- naime, kad se nađu u budućnosti, ljudi će se predomisliti. To jest, kako se bude približavao 12. mjesec, reći ćete: o čemu sam razmišljao, da čekam još jedan mjesec za 60 dolara? Uzeti ću ja tih 50 dolara sada.
Well, the question with which I'd like to end is this: If we're so damn stupid, how did we get to the moon? Because I could go on for about two hours with evidence of people's inability to estimate odds and inability to estimate value.
Dobro, pitanje s kojim bih želio završiti je slijedeće: Ako smo tako prokleto glupi, kako smo došli do Mjeseca? Jer, mogao bih nastaviti još dva sata izlažući dokaze o ljuskoj nesposobnosti procjene vjerojatnosti i nesposobnosti procjene vrijednosti.
The answer to this question, I think, is an answer you've already heard in some of the talks, and I dare say you will hear again: namely, that our brains were evolved for a very different world than the one in which we are living. They were evolved for a world in which people lived in very small groups, rarely met anybody who was terribly different from themselves, had rather short lives in which there were few choices and the highest priority was to eat and mate today.
Odgovor na ovo pitanje je, mislim, odgovor koji ste već čuli u nekim od razgovora, i usudim li se reći, kojeg ćete čuti ponovo: naime, naši mozgovi su evoluirani za vrlo različit svijet od ovog u kojem živimo. Oni su razvijeni za svijet u kojem ljudi žive u vrlo malim grupama, rijetko sreću nekoga tko se jako razlikuje od njih samih, žive relativno kratke živote sa malo izbora i, najveći problem je bio kako jesti i pariti se danas.
Bernoulli's gift, Bernoulli's little formula, allows us, it tells us how we should think in a world for which nature never designed us. That explains why we are so bad at using it, but it also explains why it is so terribly important that we become good, fast. We are the only species on this planet that has ever held its own fate in its hands. We have no significant predators, we're the masters of our physical environment; the things that normally cause species to become extinct are no longer any threat to us. The only thing -- the only thing -- that can destroy us and doom us are our own decisions. If we're not here in 10,000 years, it's going to be because we could not take advantage of the gift given to us by a young Dutch fellow in 1738, because we underestimated the odds of our future pains and overestimated the value of our present pleasures.
Bernoullijev dar, Bernoullijeva mala formula nam omogućuje, govori nam kako bi trebali razmišljati u svijetu za kojeg nas priroda nije dizajnirala. To objašnjava zašto je tako loše koristimo, ali također objašnjava zašto je strašno važno da postanemo dobri u tome, brzo. Mi smo jedina vrsta na ovoj planeti koja je ikad držala svoju sudbinu u svojim rukama. Nemamo značajnih grabežljivaca, gospodari smo naše fizičke okoline; stvari zbog kojih vrste ineča izumiru nama više nisu nikakva prijetnja. Jedina stvar - jedina stvar - koja nas može uništiti, doći glave su naše vlastite odluke. Ako za 10 000 godina više ne budemo ovdje, to će biti zato što nismo mogli iskoristiti dar koji nam je dao mladi Nizozemski momak, 1738.; zato što smo potcjenili vjerojatnost budućih boli i precjenili vrijednost trenutnih užitaka.
Thank you. (Applause)
Hvala vam. (Pljesak)
Chris Anderson: That was remarkable. We have time for some questions for Dan Gilbert. One and two.
Chris Anderson: To je bilo izvanredno. Imamo vremena za nekoliko pitanja za Dana Gilberta. Jedan i dva.
Bill Lyell: Would you say that this mechanism is in part how terrorism actually works to frighten us, and is there some way that we could counteract that?
Bill Lyell: Bi ste li rekli da ovaj mehanizam djelimično objašnjava kako nas terorizam zastrašuje, i postoji li način da to suzbijemo?
Dan Gilbert: I actually was consulting recently with the Department of Homeland Security, which generally believes that American security dollars should go to making borders safer. I tried to point out to them that terrorism was a name based on people's psychological reaction to a set of events, and that if they were concerned about terrorism they might ask what causes terror and how can we stop people from being terrified, rather than -- not rather than, but in addition to stopping the atrocities that we're all concerned about. Surely the kinds of play that at least American media give to -- and forgive me, but in raw numbers these are very tiny accidents. We already know, for example, in the United States, more people have died as a result of not taking airplanes -- because they were scared -- and driving on highways, than were killed in 9/11. OK? If I told you that there was a plague that was going to kill 15,000 Americans next year, you might be alarmed if you didn't find out it was the flu. These are small-scale accidents, and we should be wondering whether they should get the kind of play, the kind of coverage, that they do. Surely that causes people to overestimate the likelihood that they'll be hurt in these various ways, and gives power to the very people who want to frighten us.
Dan Gilbert: Zapravo sam nedavno savjetovao Službu za nacionalnu sigurnost, koja inače vjeruje da bi novac koji Amerikanci daju za sigurnost trebao ići na osiguravanje granica. Pokušao sam im istaknuti da je terorizam naziv utemeljen na ljudskoj psihološkoj reakciji na niz događaja, i da, ako bi bili zabrinuti o terorizmu mogli bi se zapitati što uzrokuje strahovanje i kako možemo učiniti da ljudi ne budu užasnuti, rađe nego - ne rađe, nego i uz zaustavljanje strahota o kojima svi brinemo. Sigurno je način na koji, bar Američki mediji obrađuju - i oprostite, ali u sirovim brojkama ovo su vrlo male nesreće. Već znamo, na primjer, da je u Sjedinjenim Državama više ljudi poginulo zbog nekorištenja aviona - jer su bili uplašeni - i vožnje po autocestama, nego što ih je poginulo u 9/11. OK? Ako bih vam rekao da postoji kuga koja će ubiti 15 000 Amerikanaca sljedeće godine, mogli bi ste se zabrinuti, ako ne bi ste znali da se radi o gripi. Ovo su nesreće malog kalibra, i trebali bi smo se zapitati trebaju li one dobijati ovakvu sliku, pokriće u medijima, kakvu inače dobijaju. To je zasigurno uzrok ljudskom precjenjivanju vjerojatnoće da će biti povrijeđeni na ove razne načine, i daje moć baš onim ljudima koji nas žele zastrašiti.
CA: Dan, I'd like to hear more on this. So, you're saying that our response to terror is, I mean, it's a form of mental bug? Talk more about it.
CA: Dan, htio bih čuti više o ovome. Dakle, vi kažete da je naša reakcija na užas, mislim, oblik mentalnog "buga"? Pričajte više o tome.
DG: It's out-sized. I mean, look. If Australia disappears tomorrow, terror is probably the right response. That's an awful large lot of very nice people. On the other hand, when a bus blows up and 30 people are killed, more people than that were killed by not using their seatbelts in the same country. Is terror the right response?
Pretjerano je. Mislim, gledajte. Ako Australija sutra nestane, užas je vjerovatno prava reakcija. To je jako velika hrpa jako dobrih ljudi. S druge strane, kad eksplodira autobus i 30 ljudi bude ubijeno, više ljudi od toga je ubijeno zbog nekorištenja pojaseva za vezanje u istoj državi. Je li užasnutost prava reakcija?
CA: What causes the bug? Is it the drama of the event -- that it's so spectacular? Is it the fact that it's an intentional attack by, quote, outsiders? What is it?
CA: Što uzrokuje "bug"? Je li drama povezana s događajem - što ga čini tako spektakularnim? Ili je do činjenice da se radi o namjernom napadu od strane, citiram, stranaca? Koje je?
DG: Yes. It's a number of things, and you hit on several of them. First, it's a human agent trying to kill us -- it's not a tree falling on us by accident. Second, these are enemies who may want to strike and hurt us again. People are being killed for no reason instead of good reason -- as if there's good reason, but sometimes people think there are. So there are a number of things that together make this seem like a fantastic event, but let's not play down the fact that newspapers sell when people see something in it they want to read. So there's a large role here played by the media, who want these things to be as spectacular as they possibly can.
DG: Da. Radi se o više stvari, i pogodili ste ih nekoliko. Prvo, ljudi djeluju na način da nas žele ubiti - to nije drvo koje bi slučajno palo na nas. Drugo, ovo su neprijatelji koji bi nas možda ponovo željeli napasti i povrijediti. Ljudi ubijaju bez razloga, umjesto s dobrim razlogom - kao da uopće postoje dobri razlozi, ali ljudi ponekad misle da postoje. Dakle, postoji nekoliko stvari koje zajedno čine ovo čudnim događajem, ali nemojmo umanjivati činjenicu da se novine prodaju kada ljudi vide u njima nešto što žele pročitati. Ovdje postoji velika uloga koju igraju mediji, koji žele da stvari budu što je spektakularnije moguće.
CA: I mean, what would it take to persuade our culture to downplay it?
CA: Mislim, što bi moglo uvjeriti našu kulturu da daje manje značaja tome?
DG: Well, go to Israel. You know, go to Israel. And a mall blows up, and then everybody's unhappy about it, and an hour-and-a-half later -- at least when I was there, and I was 150 feet from the mall when it blew up -- I went back to my hotel and the wedding that was planned was still going on. And as the Israeli mother said, she said, "We never let them win by stopping weddings." I mean, this is a society that has learned -- and there are others too -- that has learned to live with a certain amount of terrorism and not be quite as upset by it, shall I say, as those of us who have not had many terror attacks.
DG: Pa, odite u Izrael. Znate, odite u Izrael. Tamo raznesu trgovački centar, i svi su nezadovoljni zbog toga, a sat i po kasnije - bar kada sam ja bio tamo, i bio sam 50 metara od tog centra kada je eksplodirao - vratio sam se u hotel a vjenčanje koje je bilo zakazano je i dalje trajalo. A kako je rekla Izraelska majka, rekla je, "Nikad im ne damo da pobjede zaustavljanjem vjenčanja." Mislim, to je društvo koje je naučilo - a postoje i druga - naučilo živjeti sa određenom količinom terorizma, i koji nisu toliko uznemireni time kao, rekao bih, kao oni od nas koji nisu doživjeli puno terorističkih napada.
CA: But is there a rational fear that actually, the reason we're frightened about this is because we think that the Big One is to come?
CA: Ali postoji li racionalni strah da je zapravo, razlog što smo toliko preplašeni ovime, to što mislimo da će se tek dogoditi Veliki Napad?
DG: Yes, of course. So, if we knew that this was the worst attack there would ever be, there might be more and more buses of 30 people -- we would probably not be nearly so frightened. I don't want to say -- please, I'm going to get quoted somewhere as saying, "Terrorism is fine and we shouldn't be so distressed." That's not my point at all. What I'm saying is that, surely, rationally, our distress about things that happen, about threats, should be roughly proportional to the size of those threats and threats to come. I think in the case of terrorism, it isn't. And many of the things we've heard about from our speakers today -- how many people do you know got up and said, Poverty! I can't believe what poverty is doing to us. People get up in the morning; they don't care about poverty. It's not making headlines, it's not making news, it's not flashy. There are no guns going off. I mean, if you had to solve one of these problems, Chris, which would you solve? Terrorism or poverty? (Laughter) (Applause) That's a tough one.
DG: Da, naravno. Pa, ako bi znali da je neki napad bio najgori koji će ikada biti, moglo bi biti sve više autobusa sa 30 ljudi -- vjerojatno se ne bi ni približno bojali. Ne želim reći - molim vas, negdje će me citirati kako govorim, "Terorizam je u redu, i ne bi se trebali toliko uznemiravati." To uopće nije što želim reći. Što želim reći je da bi, sigurno i racionalno, naša uznemirenost stvarima koje se događaju, zbog prijetnji, trebala biti grubo proporcionalna veličini tih prijetnji i budućih prijetnji. Mislim da u slučaju terorizma, ona nije. Od puno stvari o kojima smo slušali kod naših govornika danas - koliko ljudi znate da su ustali i rekli, Siromaštvo! Ne mogu vjerovati što nam siromaštvo radi. Ljudi se ustaju ujutro; ne zanima ih siromaštvo. Ono ne dolazi na naslovnice; nema ga u vijestima, ne privlači pažnju. Ne puca se puškama. Mislim, kada bi ste morali riješiti jedan od ovih problema, Chris, koji bi ste riješili? Terorizam ili siromaštvo? (Smijeh) (Pljesak) Teško pitanje.
CA: There's no question. Poverty, by an order of magnitude, a huge order of magnitude, unless someone can show that there's, you know, terrorists with a nuke are really likely to come. The latest I've read, seen, thought is that it's incredibly hard for them to do that. If that turns out to be wrong, we all look silly, but with poverty it's a bit --
CA: Odgovor je jasan. Siromaštvo je važnije, za veliki red veličine, osim ako nam netko ne pokaže da su teroristi sa nuklearnom bombom vrlo blizu. U zadnjemu što sam pročitao, vidio, misli se da je nevjerojatno teško za njih uraditi tako nešto. Ako to ispadne pogrešno, svi ćemo izgledati smiješno, ali sa siromaštvom je malo -
DG: Even if that were true, still more people die from poverty.
DG: Čak i ako je to istina, svejedno više ljudi umire od siromaštva.
CA: We've evolved to get all excited about these dramatic attacks. Is that because in the past, in the ancient past, we just didn't understand things like disease and systems that cause poverty and so forth, and so it made no sense for us as a species to put any energy into worrying about those things? People died; so be it. But if you got attacked, that was something you could do something about. And so we evolved these responses. Is that what happened?
CA: Evoluirali smo tako da se uzbuđujemo oko tih dramatičnih napada. Je li to zato što u prošlosti, u davnoj prošlosti, jednostavno nismo razumijeli stvari poput bolesti i sistema koji uzrokuju siromaštvo i tako dalje, pa nije imalo smisla za nas kao vrstu, da ulažemo bilo kakvu energiju u brigu oko takvih stvari? Ljudi su umirali; pa neka. Ali ako vas napadnu, to je nešto oko čega bi ste mogli učiniti nešto, pa smo tako razvili ovakve reakcije. Je li se to dogodilo?
DG: Well, you know, the people who are most skeptical about leaping to evolutionary explanations for everything are the evolutionary psychologists themselves. My guess is that there's nothing quite that specific in our evolutionary past. But rather, if you're looking for an evolutionary explanation, you might say that most organisms are neo-phobic -- that is, they're a little scared of stuff that's new and different. And there's a good reason to be, because old stuff didn't eat you. Right? Any animal you see that you've seen before is less likely to be a predator than one that you've never seen before. So, you know, when a school bus is blown up and we've never seen this before, our general tendency is to orient towards that which is new and novel is activated. I don't think it's quite as specific a mechanism as the one you alluded to, but maybe a more fundamental one underlying it.
DG: Pa, znate, ljudi koji su najskeptičniji oko olakog objašnjavanja svega evolucijom su sami evolucionarni psiholozi. Rekao bih da ne postoji nešto baš toliko specifično u našoj evolutivnoj prošlosti. Nego rađe, ako tražite evolucionističko objašnjenje, mogli bi ste reći da je većina organizama novo-fobična - tj. da se pomalo boje stvari koje su nove i različite. I postoji dobar razlog da se boje jer, stare stvari vas nisu pojele. Šta ne? Svaka životinja koju vidite a već ste ju prije vidjeli je manje vjerojatno grabežljivac od neke koju nikad prije niste vidjeli. Tako, znate, kada školski autobus bude raznesen, i to nikada ranije nismo vidjeli, naša je generalna tendencija orijentirati se prema onome što je novo i novina je aktivirana. Ne mislim da je to baš tako specifičan mehanizam kao onaj na koji ste aludirali, nego možda jedan osnovniji koji leži iza toga.
Jay Walker: You know, economists love to talk about the stupidity of people who buy lottery tickets. But I suspect you're making the exact same error you're accusing those people of, which is the error of value. I know, because I've interviewed about 1,000 lottery buyers over the years. It turns out that the value of buying a lottery ticket is not winning. That's what you think it is. All right? The average lottery buyer buys about 150 tickets a year, so the buyer knows full well that he or she is going to lose, and yet she buys 150 tickets a year. Why is that? It's not because she is stupid or he is stupid. It's because the anticipation of possibly winning releases serotonin in the brain, and actually provides a good feeling until the drawing indicates you've lost. Or, to put it another way, for the dollar investment, you can have a much better feeling than flushing the money down the toilet, which you cannot have a good feeling from. Now, economists tend to -- (Applause) -- economists tend to view the world through their own lenses, which is: this is just a bunch of stupid people. And as a result, many people look at economists as stupid people. And so fundamentally, the reason we got to the moon is, we didn't listen to the economists. Thank you very much. (Applause)
Jay Walker: Znate, ekonomisti vole govoriti o¼ gluposti ljudi koji kupuju listiće za loto. Ali čini mi se da činite točno istu grešku za koju optužujete ljude, a to je greška vrijednosti. Ja znam, jer sam intervjuirao oko 1000 kupaca listoća za loto kroz godine. Ispada da vrijednost kupovine listića nije u pobijedi. Vi mislite da je. Dobro? Prosječan igrač lota kupi oko 150 listića godišnje, i kupac jako dobro zna da će, on ili ona, izgubiti, a svejedno kupi 150 listića godišnje. Zašto? To nije zato što je on ili ona glup ili glupa. To je zato jer iščekivanje moguće pobjede oslobađa serotonin u mozgu, i zapravo ostvaruje dobar osjećaj sve dok izvlačenje ne pokaže da ste izgubili. Ili, drugim riječima, za ulog od jednog dolara, možete imati puno bolji osjećaj, od bacanja novca u WC, što vam ne može dati dobar osjećaj. Sad, ekonomisti inače - (Pljesak) ekonomisti inače gledaju svijet kroz vlastite leće, koje kažu: ovo je samo hrpa glupih ljudi. Zbog toga puno ljudi gleda na ekonomiste kao glupe ljude. Pa u stvari, razlog zbog kojeg smo došli do mjeseca je što nismo slušali ekonomiste. Hvala vam puno. (Pljesak)
DG: Well, no, it's a great point. It remains to be seen whether the joy of anticipation is exactly equaled by the amount of disappointment after the lottery. Because remember, people who didn't buy tickets don't feel awful the next day either, even though they don't feel great during the drawing. I would disagree that people know they're not going to win. I think they think it's unlikely, but it could happen, which is why they prefer that to the flushing. But certainly I see your point: that there can be some utility to buying a lottery ticket other than winning. Now, I think there's many good reasons not to listen to economists. That isn't one of them, for me, but there's many others.
DG: Pa, ne, odlična poanta. Ostaje da se vidi je li radost očekivanja točno jednaka količini razočaranja nakon završenog kruga lota. Jer, sjetite se, ljudi koji nisu kupili listić se drugoga dana ne osjećaju užasno, ali se ni ne osjećaju dobro tokom izvlačenja. Ne bih se složio s tim da ljudi znaju da neće pobijediti. Mislim da misle da nije vjerojatno, ali da se može desiti, i zato im je to draže od bacanja novca u WC. Ali svakako shvaćam vašu poantu: da može postojati drugi razlog kupovine listića, od pobjede. Sad, mislim da postoji puno dobrih razloga za neslušanje ekonomista. To za mene nije jedan od njih, ali postoje mnogi drugi.
CA: Last question.
CA: Zadnje pitanje.
Aubrey de Grey: My name's Aubrey de Grey, from Cambridge. I work on the thing that kills more people than anything else kills -- I work on aging -- and I'm interested in doing something about it, as we'll all hear tomorrow. I very much resonate with what you're saying, because it seems to me that the problem with getting people interested in doing anything about aging is that by the time aging is about to kill you it looks like cancer or heart disease or whatever. Do you have any advice? (Laughter)
Aubrey de Grey: Moje ime je Aubrey de Grey, iz Cambridgea. Ja radim na stvari koja ubije više ljudi od bilo čega drugog -- radim na starenju - i zanima me učiniti nešto oko toga, kako ćemo svi sutra čuti. Vrlo dobro shvaćam to što govorite, jer, meni se čini da je problem kod poticanja interesa kod ljudi da učine nešto oko starenja, jer kad se čini da će nas starenje ubiti, ono izgleda kao rak ili srčana bolest, ili šta god. Imate li kakav savjet? (Smijeh)
DG: For you or for them?
DG: Za Vas ili za njih?
AdG: In persuading them.
AdG: U uvjeravanju njih.
DG: Ah, for you in persuading them. Well, it's notoriously difficult to get people to be farsighted. But one thing that psychologists have tried that seems to work is to get people to imagine the future more vividly. One of the problems with making decisions about the far future and the near future is that we imagine the near future much more vividly than the far future. To the extent that you can equalize the amount of detail that people put into the mental representations of near and far future, people begin to make decisions about the two in the same way. So, would you like to have an extra 100,000 dollars when you're 65 is a question that's very different than, imagine who you'll be when you're 65: will you be living, what will you look like, how much hair will you have, who will you be living with. Once we have all the details of that imaginary scenario, suddenly we feel like it might be important to save so that that guy has a little retirement money. But these are tricks around the margins. I think in general you're battling a very fundamental human tendency, which is to say, "I'm here today, and so now is more important than later."
DG: A, za Vas da uvjerite njih. Pa, posebno je teško natjerati ljude da gledaju unaprijed. Ali jedna stvar koju su psiholozi probali i koja, čini se, radi je da natjeraju ljude da zamisle budućnost življe. Jedan od problema pri donošenju odluka o dalekoj budućnosti i bližoj budućnosti je taj da bližu budućnost zamišljamo puno življe nego daleku budućnost. Toliko da ako možete izjednačiti količinu detalja koju ljudi stavljaju u mentalne predstave bliže i dalje budućnosti, ljudi počnu donositi odluke o dvama, na jednak način. Pa, bi ste li voljeli dobiti 100 000 dolara kad napunite 65 je pitanje vrlo različito od, zamislite kakvi ćete biti sa 65; hoćete li biti živi, kako ćete izgledati, koliko kose ćete imati, s kim ćete živjeti. Jednom kad posjedujemo sve detalje zamišljenog scenarija, učini nam se da bi moglo biti važno štedjeti, pa da taj u budućnosti ima malo novca za mirovinu. Ali ovo su pomalo varajući trikovi. Mislim da se, generalno, borimo sa vrlo općeljudskom tendencijom, koja je; reći: "Danas sam ovdje, pa je 'sada' važnije od 'kasnijeg'."
CA: Dan, thank you. Members of the audience, that was a fantastic session. Thank you. (Applause)
CA: Dan, hvala vam. Članovi publike, ovo je bila fantastična sesija. Hvala vam. (Pljesak)