Hi. You might have noticed that I have half a beard. It's not because I lost a bet. Many years ago, I was badly burned. Most of my body is covered with scars, including the right side of my face. I just don't have hair. That's just how it happened. It looks symmetrical, but almost.
Barchaga salom. Yuzimning yarmida soqol yoʻqligini sezgandirsiz-a? Yoʻq, bu bahsni boy berganimdan emas. Ancha yillar oldin juda jiddiy kuyishni boshdan kechirganman. Natija:butun tanam chandiqlar bilan qoplandi jumladan, yuzimning oʻng tarafi ham. Shu sababli, yuzimning yarmida teri tuklari oʻsmaydi. Bu deyarli simmetrik koʻrinadi shundaymi?
Anyway, now that we discussed facial hair, let's move to social science. And in particular, I want us to think about where is the potential for humanity and where we are now. And if you think about it, there's a big gap between where we think we could be and where we are, and it's in all kinds of areas.
Xullas, yuz tuklarini muhokama qilib boʻldig-a? Keling, endi ijtimoiy fanlarga oʻtamiz. Ayniqsa, insoniyatning imkoniyat chegarasi va u hozirgacha erisha olgan nuqta farqiga eʼtibor qaratishni istardim. Ahamiyat bersak, ular oʻrtasidagi tafovvut katta. Qanday sohada boʻlmasin, biz erisha oladigan narsalar va erishganimiz oʻrtasida juda katta boʻshliq bor.
So let me ask you: How many of you in the last month have eaten more than you think you should? Just kind of general. OK. How many of you in the last month have exercised less than you think you should? OK, and for how many of you has raising your hands twice been the most exercise you got today?
Sizga bir savolim bor: orangizda qanchangiz avvalgi oyda oʻz meʼyoringizdan ortiq ovqatlandingiz? Shunchaki oʻrtacha qilib olganimizda. Yaxshi. Orangizdan qanchangiz oʻtgan oy keragidan kam jismoniy mashq bajardingiz? Xoʻp. Orangizdan qanchangiz uchun hozirgi qoʻl koʻtarish mashqlari bugun uchun yagona badantarbiya boʻldi?
(Laughter)
(Kulgu)
How many of you have ever texted while driving? OK, we're getting honest. Let's test your honesty. How many people here in the last month have not always washed your hands when you left the bathroom?
Orangizda mashina haydayotib bir marta boʻlsa ham xabar yozishganlar bormi? Yaxshi, vijdonan javob berishga oʻtdik. Keling, vijdoningizni sinaymiz. Shu yerdagilarning qanchasi oʻtgan oy davomida xojatxonadan chiqayotib doim ham qoʻlini yuvmagan?
(Laughter)
(Kulgu)
A little less honest. By the way, it's interesting how we're willing to admit texting and driving but not washing our hands, that's difficult.
Ha, vijdon biroz pand berdi. Aytgancha, biz mashina haydab, telefon ishlatganimizni oson tan oldik. Lekin qoʻlimizni yuvmaslikka kelganda esa...
(Laughter)
(Kulgu)
We can go on and on. The problem, the topic is that there's lots of things when we know what we could do -- we could be very, very different, but we're acting in a very different way. And when we think how do we bridge that gap, the usual answer is, "Just tell people." For example, just tell people that texting and driving is dangerous. Did you know it's dangerous? You should stop doing it. You tell people something is dangerous, and they will stop.
Bunday misollar juda koʻp Muammo shundaki, biz qila olishimizga imonimiz komil boʻlgan narsalar, vaziyatlar juda koʻp. Biz umuman boshqa odam boʻlishimiz mumkin, biroq harakatlarimiz boshqacha. Oʻrtadagi tafovvutni qanday yengish mumkin? Javobi oddiy: "Boshqalarni xabardor qiling" Masalan, atrofingizdagilarga rulda telefon ishlatish xatarliligi ayting "Bu xavfli ekanligini bilmaysanmi? Boshqa bunday qilma" Odamlarga nimadir xatarli ekanligini aytsangiz, ular buni toʻxtatadi.
Texting and driving is one example. Another very sad example is that in the US, we spend between seven and eight hundred million dollars a year on what's called "financial literacy." And what do we get as a consequence of that? There was recently a study that looked at all the research ever to be conducted on financial literacy -- what's called a meta-analysis. And what they found is that when you tell people, you teach them financial literacy, they learn and they remember. But do people execute? Not so much. The improvement is about three or four percent immediately after the course, and then it goes down. And at the end of the day, the improvement is about 0.1 percent -- not zero, but as humanly close to zero as possible.
Rulda telefon ishlatish bir misol. Yana bir achinarli misol: AQSh yiliga 700-800 million dollarni "moliyaviy savodxonlik" yoʻlida sarflaydi Bundan natija nima? Yaqinda moliyaviy savodxonlikka oid barcha tadqiqotlar oʻrganib chiqildi. Jarayon "meta-analiz" deyiladi. Ularning aniqlashlariga koʻra, insonlarga moliyaviy savodxonlikdan dars oʻtilayotganini aytsangiz, ular maʼlumotlarni oʻrganib, yaxshi eslab qoladilar Biroq oʻrganganlarini amalda qoʻllashadimi? Yoʻq, kamdan-kam. Oʻquv dasturi yakunidagi hisoblashlar savodxonlik 3-4% ga oshganini koʻrsatdi Biroz oʻtib koʻrsatkich yana pasaydi Qarabsizki, yakuniy oʻsish – 0,1%. Ha, 0 emas, lekin shunda ham 0 ga juda-juda yaqin.
(Laughter)
(Kulgu)
So that's the sad news. The sad news is, giving information to people is just not a good recipe to change behavior. What is?
Mana shu holat men uchun achinarli. Gap shundaki, odamlarga shunchaki maʼlumotni yetkazish doim ham ularning harakatlarini yaxshi tomonga oʻzgartira olmaskan Unda nima qilish kerak?
Well, social science has made lots of strides, and the basic insight is that if we want to change behavior, we have to change the environment. The right way is not to change people, it's to change the environment. And I want to present a very simpleminded model of how to think about it: it's to think about behavioral change in the same way that we think about sending a rocket to space. When we think about sending a rocket to space, we want to do two main things. The first one is to reduce friction. We want to take the rocket and have as little friction as possible so it's the most aerodynamic possible. And the second thing is we want to load as much fuel as possible, to give it the most amount of motivation, energy to do its task. And behavior change is the same thing.
Bu borada ijtimoiy fanlar bir necha yechim bera oladi. Eng birinchi qadam shuki, kishining harakatlarini oʻzgartirish uchun dastlab uning muhitini oʻzgartirish lozim Demak, insonni emas, muhitni oʻzgartirish kerak Keling, sizga buni oddiy soʻzlar bilan tushuntiraman. Buning uchun xulq-atvorni oʻzgartirishni fazoga raketa joʻnatishga qiyoslaylik. Fazoga raketa uchirish paytida ikki narsani esda saqlashimiz lozim. Birinchisi – qarshilikni kamaytirish. Raketaning aerodinamikasini taʼminlash uchun uning qarshilik kuchi kichik boʻlishi kerak. Ikkinchi vazifamiz – unga koʻp miqdorda yoqilgʻilarni joylashdir. Shunda u vazifalarni bajarish uchun yetarli quvvatga ega boʻladi. Xulq-atvorni oʻzgartirish ham shunday.
So let's first talk about friction. In this particular case study I'll tell you about, there's a pharmacy, an online pharmacy. Imagine you go to your doctor. You have a long-term illness, your doctor prescribes to you a medication, you sign up for this online pharmacy and you get your medication in the mail every 90 days. Every 90 days, medication, medication, medication. And this online pharmacy wants to switch people from branded medication to generic medication. So they send people letters, and they say, "Please, please, please, switch to generics. You will save money, we will save money, your employer will save money." And what do people do? Nothing.
Muhokamani qarshilikdan boshlaylik Sizga aytib bermoqchi boʻlgan bir tadqiqotimizda onlayn dorixona bilan ish olib bordik. Tasavvur qiling, doktor huzuriga bordingiz Muolajangiz uzoq davom etarkan. Shifokor sizga zarur dorilarni yozib berdi. Siz yuqoridagi onlayn dorixona bilan shartnoma tuzdingiz va har 90 kunda pochta orqali dorilarni oldingiz. Har 90 kunda dori, dori, dori. Onlayn dorixona oʻz mijozlariga brend dorilardan arzonroqiga oʻtishni taklif qilishmoqchi. Ular email orqali mijozlarga shunday xat yozishadi: "Iltimos, arzonroq dorilarga oʻting. Bunda siz ham, biz ham, sizning boshligʻingiz ham pul tejaydi". Xoʻsh, odamlar nima qilarkan? Hech nima.
So they try all kinds of things and nothing happens. So for one year, they give people an amazing offer. They send people a letter, and they say, "If you switch to generics now, it will be free for a whole year." Free for a whole year. Amazing! What percentage of people do you think switched? Less than 10 percent. At this point, they show up to my office. And they come to complain. Why did they pick me? I wrote a couple of papers on the "allure of free." In those papers, we showed that if you reduce the price of something for, let's say, 10 cents to one cent, nothing much happens. You reduce it from one cent to zero, now people get excited.
Dorixonadagilar turli usullarni qoʻllab koʻrishdi. Natija boʻlmagach, bir ajoyib taklif eʼlon qilishdi. Unda yozilishicha: "Agar arzonroq dorilarga oʻtsangiz, 1 yil davomida ular tekin boʻladi". 1 yil tekin. Bu ajoyibku! Mijozlarning necha foizi taklifni qabul qildi deb oʻylaysiz? 10% dan kami. Shunda dorixona xodimlari oldimga keldi. Ular norozi edilar. Mening aybim nima deysizmi? Men "oʻziga tortuvchi tekin narsa" mavzularida koʻp yozgandim. Ularda shunday deyilgandi, agar biror narsaning narxini 10 sentdan 1 sentga tushursangiz, savdoda katta oʻzgarish boʻlmaydi Uni 1 sentdan 0 sentga oʻzgartirsangiz esa odamlar xursand.
(Laughter)
(Kulgu)
And they said, "Look, we read these papers on 'free,' we gave 'free.' Not working as we expected. What's going on?" I said, "You know, maybe it's a question of friction." They said, "What do you mean?" I said, "People are starting with branded. They can do nothing and end with branded. To move to generic, they have to choose generic over branded, but they also have to do something. They have to return the letter." So this is what we call a "confounded design." Two things are happening at the same time. It's branded versus generic, but it's doing nothing versus doing something. So I said, "Why don't we switch it? Why don't we send people a letter and say, 'We're switching you to generics. You don't need to do anything. If you want to stay with branded, please return the letter.'"
Dorixona xodimlari: "Qara, sening gapingga kirib, tekin qildik. Nega bu ish bermayapti? Gap nimada?" – deyishdi. "Balki gap qarshilik kuchidadir",– dedim men. Ular tushunmadi. Ularga tushuntirdim: "Odamlar brend dorilarga yozilishgan. Ular hech narsa qilishmasa ham, shu dorilarni olaverishadi Oddiy dorilarga oʻtish uchun ular bu haqida xabar berishlari lozim. Buning uchun esa, ular sizga javob xati yozishlari kerak". Buni "hayratlantiruvchi dizayn" deb nomlaymiz. Bu yerda ikki xil jarayon bir vaqtda sodir boʻlyapti Brend vs oddiy hamda hech nima qilmaslik vs harakat. Shunda ularning joyini almashtirishni taklif qildim Mijozlarga: "Biz sizlarni arzon dorilarga aʼzo qilmoqchimiz. Sizdan hech narsa talab qilinmaydi brend dorilar bilan qolmoqchi boʻlsangiz, xabar bering", desakchi?
(Laughter)
(Kulgu)
Right? What do you think happened? Lawyers, lawyers happened.
Toʻgʻrimi? Nima boʻldi deb oʻylaysiz? Advokatlar, advokatlar murojaat qilishdi
(Laughter)
(Kulgu)
It turns out, this is illegal.
Maʼlum boʻlishicha, bu qonunga zid ekan.
(Laughter)
(Kulgu)
By the way, for brainstorming and creativity, doing things that are illegal and immoral, it's fine, as long as it's just in the brainstorming phase.
Aytgancha, ijodkorlik va gʻoyalarni rivojlantirish uchun noqonuniy yoki nojoiz ishlar haqida oʻylash yaxshi. Agar u amalga koʻchmay, faqat miyada qolsa.
(Laughter)
(Kulgu)
But this was the purity of the idea, because the initial design was the branded had the no-action benefit. In my illegal, immoral design, generic had the no-action benefit. But they agreed to give people a T-intersection: send people a letter and say, "If you don't return this letter, we will be forced to stop your medications. But when you return the letter, you could choose branded at this price, generic at this price." Now people had to take an action. They were on even footing. Right? It wasn't that one had the no-action benefit. What percentage do you think switched? The vast majority switched. So what does it tell us? Do people like generics, or do we like branded? We hate returning letters.
Biroq masalaning negiziga qarasak, chindan ham, brendli dorilarni olish uchun mijoz hech qanday ish qilishi kerak emas. Men taklif qilgan noqonuniy gʻoyada esa, aksi– arzon dorini shundoq ham olaverasiz Mening gʻoyam ish bermagach,biz ikki taraf ham birlashgan nuqtani topdik E-mailda shunday yozdik: Agar xabarga javob yozmasangiz, dori yetkazishni toʻxtatishga majbur boʻlamiz. Javob xatingizda n narxli brend yoki m narxli oddiy dorini tanlaganingizni yozib joʻnatishingizni soʻraymiz. Ana endi ular bir nima qilmasa boʻlmaydi Ikki tomonda ham bir xil shart shundaymi? Hech nima qilmasdan biriga erishishning iloji yoʻq vaziyat Necha foiz odatiy dorilarga oʻtdi deysiz? Aksariyat odamlar. Xoʻsh, bu nimani anglatadi? Kishilar oddiy dorilarni afzal koʻradimi yo brendni? Bir narsa aniq:
(Laughter)
xatlarga javob berishni yomon koʻramiz. (kulgu)
This is the story of friction: small things really matter. And friction is about taking the desired behavior and saying: Where do we have too much friction so it's slowing people down from acting on it? And every time you see that the desired behavior and the easy behavior are not aligned, it means we want to try and realign them.
Mana shu birinchi xulosamiz boʻldi: kichik narsalar muhim ahamiyatga ega. Demak, qarama-qarshilikni aniqlash uchun istalgan vazifani olib, uning qaysi qismida qarama-qarshilik koʻpligini aniqlang Aynan shu istalgan harakatni bajarishdan ushlab turibdi Istalgan harakat va bajarilishi oson boʻlgan harakat bir-biriga toʻgʻri kelmagan holda ularni qayta koʻrib chiqib, bir-birga moslash kerak.
That's the first part. We talked about friction. Now let's talk about motivation. In this particular study, we were trying to get very poor people in a slum called Kibera in Kenya to save a little bit of money for a rainy day. You know, if you're very, very poor, you have no extra money, you live hand to mouth, and from time to time, bad things happen. And when something bad happens, you have nothing to draw on, you borrow. The Kibera people can borrow at sometimes up to 10 percent interest a week. And then, of course, it's really hard to get out of it. You live hand to mouth, something bad happens, you borrow, things get worse and worse and worse. So we wanted people to keep a little bit of money for a rainy day. And we thought about what is the motivation, what is the fuel that we need to add? And we tried all kinds of things. Some people, we texted them once a week and said, "Please try to save 100 shillings" -- about a dollar -- "this week." Some people, we sent a text message as if it came from their kids. So it said, "Hi Mom, hi Dad, this is little Joey" -- whatever the name of the kid was -- "Try and save 100 shillings this week for the future of our family." Right? I'm Jewish, a little bit of guilt always works.
Birinchi qismda qarama-qarshilik haqida gaplashdik. Keling endi motivatsiyani koʻrib chiqamiz Bir tadqiqotimizda Biz Keniyaning Kibera nomli xarobalaridagi odamlarni qora kunga pul saqlab qoʻyishga koʻndirmoqchi boʻldik. Bilamizki, kambagʻallikda ortiqcha pul saqlab qoʻyish qiyin. Kuningiz har kuni topayotgan pulingiz hisobiga oʻtadi baʼzan kutilmagan muammolar chiqadi. Ana shunda, sizning ortiqcha xarajatga pulingiz boʻlmaydi – qarz olasiz. Kibera aholisi esa, baʼzan haftasiga 10% qoʻshimcha toʻlab ham qarz olishadi. Qarabsizki, qarz botqogʻidan chiqish qiyinlashib boradi. Bazoʻr kun kechirayotgandingiz, bir koʻrgilik boʻldi. Qarz oldingiz, vaziyat kundan kunga yanada ogʻirlashdi. Shuning uchun ham,ularga qora kunga pul saqlab qoʻyishni uqtirdik. Shunda ularni bu ishga qanday ruhlantirish, qaysi yoqilgʻi qoʻshish haqida oʻylay boshladik. Biz har narsa qilib koʻrdik. Baʼzilariga har hafta xabar yozib, shu hafta 100 shilling (taxminan 1 dollar) saqlab qoʻyishni soʻradik. Baʼzilariga bu xat goʻyoki oʻz bolalaridan kelgandek qilib yozdik: "Otajon, oyijon, bu men Joey" – farzandining ismi "Oilamiz kelajagi uchun bu hafta 100 shiling saqlab qoʻyaylik" Qalay? Men yahudiyman. Bizning falasafada biroz aybdorlik hissi foyda keltiradi.
(Laughter)
(Kulgu)
Some people got 10 percent. "Save up to a hundred shillings, we'll give you 10 percent." Some people got 20 percent. Some people got also 10 percent and 20 percent, but they got it with loss aversion. What is loss aversion? Loss aversion is the idea that we hate losing more than we enjoy gaining. Now, think about somebody who is in a 10-percent condition and they put 40 shillings in. They put 40 shillings, we give them four more, they say thank you very much. That person gave up six. They could have gotten six more if they gave a hundred, but they don't see it. So we created what we call pre-match. We put the 10 shillings in at the beginning of the week. We said, "It's waiting for you!" And then if somebody puts 40 in, we say, "Oh, you put 40 in, we're leaving four, and we're taking six back." So in both cases, pre-match or post-match, people get 10 percent. But in the pre-match, they see the money they did not match leaving their account. So we have text, text from kids, 10 percent, 20 percent, pre-match, post-match. And we had one more condition. It was a coin about this size, with 24 numbers written on it. And we asked them to put the coin somewhere in their hut, and every week, take a knife and scratch the number for that week -- week one, two, three, four -- scratch it like a minus if they didn't save and scratch it up and down if they saved.
Baʼzilarga 10% qoʻshimcha pul taklif qildik. "100 shilling saqlab qoʻying va biz sizga uning 10% ini qoʻshamiz" Baʼzilarga 20% dedik. Baʼzilarga ham 10%, ham 20% foyda taklif qilindi. Biroq unda yoʻqotishdan qoʻrquv holati aralashgandi. Bu nima degani? Yoʻqotishdan qoʻrqish nazariyasiga koʻra, bizning yoʻqotishdan qoʻrquvimiz foydadan oladigan zavqdan kuchliroq. Keling, 10% foyda belgilangan bir kishini tasavvur qilamiz U 40 shilling saqlab qoʻydi. Qoidaga muvofiq, unga yana 4 shilling beramiz U katta rahmat aytadi. Biroq u 6 shilling yoʻqotdi. Agar u 100 shilling saqlab qoʻyganida, yana 6 shilling olardi Biroq u buni anglab yetmadi. Endi biz foizni oldindan berib qoʻyadigan boʻldik. Haftaning boshida unga 10 shilling koʻrsatamiz va "bular seni kutayapti" deb aytamiz. Agar ular 40 shilling saqlaganini koʻrsak, aytamiz: "Voy atigi 40 shillingmi? Unda faqat 4 shilling berib, 6 tasini qaytaramiz" Foizni oldin yo keyin berganimizda ham ular 10% foyda olishyapti. Biroq foyda boshida koʻrsatilsa, ular oʻzlari olishi mumkin boʻlgan, ammo yoʻqotgan pulni koʻrishadi. Xoʻsh, biz xat joʻnatishni, uni bolalari yozgandek yozishni, boshda yo oxirida 10-20% foyda berishni sinab koʻrdik. Bizda yana bir usul bor edi. Bu mana shunday kattalikdagi tanga edi. Unda 24gacha raqamlar bor edi. Ularga tangani kulbasining bir chetiga qoʻyishni aytdik. Har hafta tangadagi sonlardan birining ustidan chizib borishdi. 1-hafta, 2-hafta, 3-hafta, 4 Agar shu hafta pul saqlab qoʻyishmasa, "-" belgisi, agar pul saqlab qoʻyishsa, "/" belgisini qoʻyishlari kerak edi
Now, think to yourself: Which one of those methods do you think worked the best? Text, text from the kids, 10 percent, 20 percent, beginning of the week, end of the week, and the coin? I'll tell you what the average people think. We've done these studies of prediction, both in the US and in Kenya. People think that 20 percent will get a lot of action, 10 percent less, the rest of it will do nothing -- kids, coin, doesn't matter. People think loss aversion will have a small effect.
Endi taxmin qiling: qay bir usul koʻproq samara berdi? Xat, bolalardan xat, 10%, 20% hafta boshi, hafta oxiri yo tanga? Sizga oʻrtacha odam qanday fikrdaligini aytaman. Biz AQSh va Keniyaliklar ichida shu borada soʻrovnoma oʻtkazdik. Ularga koʻra, 20% ning taʼsiri 10% dan koʻra koʻproq boʻladi. Qolganlarining foydasi yoʻq: bolalar, tanga – foydasiz. Odamlarning fikricha, yoʻqotishdan qoʻrqishning ham taʼsiri kam
What actually happened? Sending a text reminder once a week helps a lot. Good news! This program lasted six months. People forget. Reminding people is great. Ten percent at the end of the week helped some more. Financial incentives work. Twenty percent at the end of the week -- just like 10 percent, no difference. Ten percent in the beginning of the week helps some more. Loss aversion works. Twenty percent in the beginning of the week, just like 10 percent in the beginning of the week, no difference. And the text message from the kids was just as effective as 20 percent plus loss aversion -- which is amazing, right? It's amazing how motivating messages from kids were. And one conclusion is we don't use kids enough.
Aslida nima boʻldi? Haftada bir marta xat joʻnatish ancha foyda berdi. Yaxshi-a! Dastur 6 oy davom etdi. Odamlarga eslatib turishning foydasi bor. Haftaning oxirida 10% qoʻshimcha berish undan sal samaraliroq boʻldi. Demak, moliyaviy ragʻbat ham ish berdi. Hafta oxirida 20% berishning 10% dan farqi yoʻq. Haftaning boshida 10% berish avvalgilaridan samaraliroq. Yoʻqotish qoʻrquvi ishlaydi. Hafta boshida 20% bersakchi? Farqi yoʻq: natija oʻsha-oʻsha Bolalar nomidan xat yozish 20% li yoʻqotish xavfidan ham samaraliroq chiqdi. Ajoyib-a? Bolalardan xatlarning qanchalik ruhlantiruvchi ekanligi hayratlanarli. Bundan xulosa: biz bolalarimizdan yetarlicha foydalanmaymiz.
(Laughter)
(Kulgu)
And, of course, I don't mean in a child labor sense. But if you think about parents and their kids, we are the best that we can for our kids, and we think about the future, and I think we should think about how to use that amazing source of motivation to get parents to behave in a better way.
Albatta, bolalar mehnatini nazarda tutmayabman. Biroq ota-ona va farzand munosabatlarini koʻrsangiz, biz bolalarimiz uchun hamma narsa qilamiz, ularning kelajagi haqida oʻylaymiz. Oʻylashimcha, biz kerakli maqsadga erishish uchun bolalarimizdan ruhlantiruvchi vosita sifatida foydalanishimiz mumkin.
But the big surprise of this study was the coin. The coin basically doubled savings compared to everything else. And now the question is: Why? What was it about the coin? So I'll tell you how I started thinking about the coin, and then we'll come back to it.
Biroq tadqiqotning eng ajablanarli jihati tanga bilan bogʻliq. Tanga boshqa usullardan ikki baravar koʻproq pul asrashga undadi. Endi savol:nega? Tanganing nimasi bor edi? Tanga haqida qanday oʻylay boshlaganimni aytaman, keyin yana shu joyga qaytamiz.
So you know, when I do research on, let's say, buying coffee, I don't need to go anywhere. I can sit in my office. I've bought enough coffee. I know how it works. The details, I'm familiar with. When you do research in some of the poorest places in the world, you have to go and visit and see what's going on and get some insight about how the system works. And on that particular day, I'm in a place called Soweto in South Africa, and I'm sitting in a place that sells funeral insurance. You know, in the US people spend crazy amounts of money on weddings? In South Africa, it's funerals. People spend up to a year or two years of income on funerals. And I sit in this place -- by the way, before you judge the South Africans as being irrational with this, I just want to remind you that spending a lot of money on funerals compared to weddings, at least you know for sure you only have one.
Men, aytaylik, kofe sotib olish haqida izlanish qilsam, hech qayerga chiqishim shartmas– ofisimda oʻtiraveraman. Koʻp marta kofe sotib olganman, qanday ishlashini bilaman. Vaziyat bilan tanishman. Dunyodagi eng qashshoq joylar haqida izlanish oʻtkazganda esa, u yerga borib, nimalar boʻlayotganini oʻrganish kerak. U yerda tizim qanday ishlashini bilish kerak. Bir kuni Janubiy Afrikaning Soveto nomli joyida edim. Janoza sugʻurtasi sotiladigan joyda edim. AQShdagi aholi toʻylar uchun juda koʻp sarflashini bilamiz-a? Janubiy Afrikada, bu – janozalar. Odamlar 1-2 yillik daromadini janozalar uchun sarflashadi. U yerda oʻtirar ekanman... aytgancha, Janubiy Afrikaliklarni irratsional deyishingizdan oldin sizlarga shuni eslatib oʻtmoqchiman: ha,toʻyga nisbatan janozaga koʻproq pul sarflashar, lekin ular hayotida 1 marta janozasi boʻlishini aniq bilishadi.
(Laughter)
(Kulgu)
OK, so I sit in this place that sells funeral insurance. And this guy comes in with his son -- his son is about 12 -- and he buys funeral insurance for a week. It will cover 90 percent of his funeral expense only if he dies in the next seven days. Right? These are very poor people, they buy small amounts of insurance and small amount of soap and such. And he gets that certificate, and in a very ceremonious way, he gives it to his son. And as he gives it to his son, I think to myself, why the ceremony? What is this father doing? Now, think about the breadwinner that decides on that particular day to direct some money into insurance or savings. What is the family going to see tonight? They're going to see less. Right? At that level of poverty, there'll be less food, less kerosene, less water -- something less tonight. And what his father was doing and what our coin was trying to do is to say, yes, there's less food on the table, but there's another activity. You see, what happened is, there are many good, important economic activities, like savings and insurance, that are invisible. And now the question is: How do we make them visible?
Xoʻsh, janoza sugʻurtasi sotadigan joyda oʻtiribman-a? Bir kishi oʻzining 12 yashar bolasi bilan kelib qoldi. U 1 haftalik janoza sugʻurtasini sotib oldi. Agar u kelasi 7 kun ichida vafot etsa, sugʻurta janozasining 90%ini qoplab beradi. Odamlar kambagʼalliklari uchun kam miqdorda sugʻurta, kam miqdorda sovun v.b sotib olishadi. U sugʻurtani oldi va oʻta tantanavor harakatlar bilan uni bolasiga berdi. Ularni kuzatar ekanman, "bu tantanavorlik nimaga ekan" dedim. Bu ota nima qilyapti? Tasavvur qiling, oila boquvchisi pulning bir qismini sugʻurta uchun sarfladi. Bugun kechasi oilada nima boʻladi? Ovqat odatdagidan kam boʻladi. Kambagʻallikning bu darajasida,ular kam ovqat, kam kerosin, kam suv koʻrishadi Demak, shu kuni nimadir kam. Bu ota va bizning tanga bir narsani aytmoqchi edi: ha, bugun stolda ovqat kamdir. Lekin, bu yerda boshqa vaziyat ham bor. Koʻrib turganingizdek, iqtisodiyotda saqlab qoʻyish va sugʻurtaga oʻxshash muhim, samarali, ammo koʻzga koʻrinmas vaziyatlar bor. Muammo ularni qanday qilib koʻrinarli qilishda.
So let's go back to our rocket model. We have to, first of all, look at the system and see where there's little things we can fix, with friction, where is there that we can remove friction? And then the next thing we want to do is to think broadly about the system, and say: What other motivations can we bring in? And that's a much more difficult exercise, and we don't always know what would work best. Is it going to be money? Is it going to be loss aversion? Is it going to be something that is visible? We don't know, and we have to try different things. We also have to realize that our intuition sometimes misleads us. We don't always necessarily know what would work the best.
Keling, raketamiz modeliga qaytamiz. Dastlab, tizimni koʻzdan kechirib, muvozanatsizlik tugʻdirayotgan qismlarni qidirib chiqamiz. Agar boʻlsa, bu tengsizlikni tuzatamiz. Keyingi ishimiz tizimning kattaroq rasmini tasavvur qilishdir. Savol beramiz: "Qanday yoqilgʻi quyib, quvvatni oshirishimiz mumkin? Bu esa eng qiyin masalalardan biri. Biz nima eng koʻp samara berishini har doim ham topa olmaymiz. Bu pulmi? Yoʻqotishdan qoʻrqish nazariyasimi? Bu koʻzga koʻrinarli boshqa omilmi? Aniq bilmaymiz. Shuning uchun ham hammasini sinab koʻramiz. Shuni ham inobatga olish kerakki, baʼzan intuitsiyamiz bizni aldashi mumkin. Biz har doim ham qaysi yoʻl yaxshi ishlashini bila olmaymiz.
So if we think about this gap between where we could be and where we are, it's a really sad thing to see this gap and to think about it. But the good news is, there's lots we can do. Some of the changes are easy, some of the changes are more complex. But if we'll attack each problem directly, not by just providing more information to people but trying to change the friction, add motivation, I think we can ... Can we close the gap? No. But can we get much better? Absolutely, yes.
Bizning imkoniyatlarimiz chegarasi va hozir kimligimizning orasidagi farqqa eʼtibor qaratar ekanmiz, bu farqni koʻrib turib, u haqida oʻylash juda tushkunli. Lekin yaxshi xabar ham bor: biz koʻp narsa qila olamiz. Baʼzi oʻzgarishlar oson, baʼzilari mushkulroq. Ammo har bir muammoni birma-bir yengib oʻta olamiz. Shunchaki odamlarni bundan xabardor qilib emas, qarama-qarshilikni kamaytirish, motivatsiya qoʻshish bilan. Menimcha, bu qoʻlimizdan keladi. Oradagi farqni yoʻqotishning iloji bormi? Yoʻq. Lekin biz yaxshiroq boʻla olamizmi? Ha.
Thank you very much.
Eʼtiboringiz uchun katta rahmat
(Applause)
(Qarsaklar)