I want to talk about the transformed media landscape, and what it means for anybody who has a message that they want to get out to anywhere in the world. And I want to illustrate that by telling a couple of stories about that transformation.
我谈谈变化中的媒体前景, 现时人们可以使用媒介 以在世界任何一个地方进行分享。 我通过一些关于此变化的故事 来解释。
I'll start here. Last November there was a presidential election. You probably read something about it in the papers. And there was some concern that in some parts of the country there might be voter suppression. And so a plan came up to video the vote. And the idea was that individual citizens with phones capable of taking photos or making video would document their polling places, on the lookout for any kind of voter suppression techniques, and would upload this to a central place. And that this would operate as a kind of citizen observation -- that citizens would not be there just to cast individual votes, but also to help ensure the sanctity of the vote overall.
首先,去年11月举办的美国总统选举。 你可能在报纸上读到一些新闻。 在美国各地出现了 选票竞争的问题。 有个计划是视频录像选举。 这个点子是, 每个市民通过有拍照和摄像功能手机 来记录他们的选举场地, 去监督任何选票竞争的公平性。 可以上传到一个[网络]核心位置。 这是一种公民观察监督类型的操作。 公民不仅仅只是行使个体公民选举。 也是帮助确保整个选举的神圣。
So this is a pattern that assumes we're all in this together. What matters here isn't technical capital, it's social capital. These tools don't get socially interesting until they get technologically boring. It isn't when the shiny new tools show up that their uses start permeating society. It's when everybody is able to take them for granted. Because now that media is increasingly social, innovation can happen anywhere that people can take for granted the idea that we're all in this together.
这也确保了我们必须一起行使选举的形式。 这重要的 不是技术层面。 而是社会层面的。 这些工具除非技术应用好才会在社会上越来 越有趣。不至于乏味。 也不是要等到令人瞩目的新技术闪亮登场, 他们的使用才开始遍布社会。 而是每一个人开始意识到这是必然的。 因为现在媒体迅速社会化, 创新在任何一个地方发生 人们可以想当然地认为我们都是身处其中。
And so we're starting to see a media landscape in which innovation is happening everywhere, and moving from one spot to another. That is a huge transformation. Not to put too fine a point on it, the moment we're living through -- the moment our historical generation is living through -- is the largest increase in expressive capability in human history. Now that's a big claim. I'm going to try to back it up.
所以我们开始看到媒体前景 的创新在任何地方发生。 从一个地方发展到另一个地方。 这是巨大的转变。 不用列举更多,我们 处在历史发展中的一代人,在生活中 在人类历史中,表达能力是突出 增强的。 现在有个大要求。我说明一下。
There are only four periods in the last 500 years where media has changed enough to qualify for the label "revolution." The first one is the famous one, the printing press: movable type, oil-based inks, that whole complex of innovations that made printing possible and turned Europe upside-down, starting in the middle of the 1400s. Then, a couple of hundred years ago, there was innovation in two-way communication, conversational media: first the telegraph, then the telephone. Slow, text-based conversations, then real-time voice based conversations. Then, about 150 years ago, there was a revolution in recorded media other than print: first photos, then recorded sound, then movies, all encoded onto physical objects. And finally, about 100 years ago, the harnessing of electromagnetic spectrum to send sound and images through the air -- radio and television. This is the media landscape as we knew it in the 20th century. This is what those of us of a certain age grew up with, and are used to.
在过去的500年至少有4个阶段 媒体发生很大变化,带有标志产品的变革。 第一种是有名的,出版媒介。 可携带的,油墨,创新的整合 使出版印刷可行 在15世纪的中期,开始从上至下转变欧洲。 然后几百年过去 有两种交流媒体创新。 会话式的媒介,第一是电报,接下来是电话。 慢,文本输入的会话, 接着即时语音的会话。 然后,大概150年以前, 除了印刷,在记录媒体有个转变。 首先照片,然后录制声音, 然后电影,所有都转变为有形实体的编码。 最后大概100年前,电磁光谱的应用 开始通过空气,录音机,电视传播声音和视图。 这是我们所知道的20世纪的媒体前景。 那是我们有一定岁数的人成长和经历过 的年代。
But there is a curious asymmetry here. The media that is good at creating conversations is no good at creating groups. And the media that's good at creating groups is no good at creating conversations. If you want to have a conversation in this world, you have it with one other person. If you want to address a group, you get the same message and you give it to everybody in the group, whether you're doing that with a broadcasting tower or a printing press. That was the media landscape as we had it in the twentieth century.
但是很奇怪这有个不对应的关系。 媒体在交谈会话方面好, 但没有群体组织。 要是好在群体组织方面, 她又不适合交谈会话。 如果在世界上你想有个会话, 你和另外一个人会话。 如果你想建个组织,你得到同样的信息 你传递给组织里的每一个人。 不管你是和广播机构或者印刷出版社做那些。 这都是 20世纪我们有的媒体前景。
And this is what changed. This thing that looks like a peacock hit a windscreen is Bill Cheswick's map of the Internet. He traces the edges of the individual networks and then color codes them. The Internet is the first medium in history that has native support for groups and conversation at the same time. Whereas the phone gave us the one-to-one pattern, and television, radio, magazines, books, gave us the one-to-many pattern, the Internet gives us the many-to-many pattern. For the first time, media is natively good at supporting these kinds of conversations. That's one of the big changes.
这已经变化了。 这种事看上去像孔雀开屏占了挡风玻璃 是Bill Cheswick的网络图。 他追踪个人网络的分界线 然后用颜色来编码他们。 网络是历史上第一个媒介 即自然生成组织 同时又有对话。 电话只给我们一对一的形式。 电视,收音机,杂志,书, 给我们一对很多的媒体形式。 网络给我们许多对许多的媒体形式。 第一次 媒体是自然好的支持了会话的类型。 这是最大的变化之一。
The second big change is that, as all media gets digitized, the Internet also becomes the mode of carriage for all other media, meaning that phone calls migrate to the Internet, magazines migrate to the Internet, movies migrate to the Internet. And that means that every medium is right next door to every other medium. Put another way, media is increasingly less just a source of information, and it is increasingly more a site of coordination, because groups that see or hear or watch or listen to something can now gather around and talk to each other as well.
第二个大变化 是随着所有媒体变数字化 网络开始变成所有媒体传递 的方式。 意味着电话转到网络。 杂志转到网络。电影转到网络。 也意味每个媒介和每隔一个媒介紧紧 联系。 换句话说, 媒介迅速减少为一些消息。 他更多的是增长型协调网站。 因为组织看到,听到,被看到,去听一些事 现在可以聚到一起,互相交流。
And the third big change is that members of the former audience, as Dan Gilmore calls them, can now also be producers and not consumers. Every time a new consumer joins this media landscape a new producer joins as well, because the same equipment -- phones, computers -- let you consume and produce. It's as if, when you bought a book, they threw in the printing press for free; it's like you had a phone that could turn into a radio if you pressed the right buttons. That is a huge change in the media landscape we're used to. And it's not just Internet or no Internet. We've had the Internet in its public form for almost 20 years now, and it's still changing as the media becomes more social. It's still changing patterns even among groups who know how to deal with the Internet well.
第三个变化是 以前观众的成员,就如Dan Gilmore称呼他们, 现在可以成为生产者而不是消费者。 每次一个新消费者 加入这个媒体前景 一个新生产者也随之产生。 因为同样的设备, 电话,计算机, 让你消费和生产。 这就好比,当你买本书,他们免费印刷刊物。 当你按对按钮,你用手机转变成 收音机。 比我们的媒体前景有了巨大 变化。 它不仅是网络化或者不网络化。 我们已经有公众网络化 到现在大概有20年。 他还是变化 随着媒体变得越社会化。 他也变化形式 尽管一些组织知道怎样很好的应对网络。
Second story. Last May, China in the Sichuan province had a terrible earthquake, 7.9 magnitude, massive destruction in a wide area, as the Richter Scale has it. And the earthquake was reported as it was happening. People were texting from their phones. They were taking photos of buildings. They were taking videos of buildings shaking. They were uploading it to QQ, China's largest Internet service. They were Twittering it. And so as the quake was happening the news was reported. And because of the social connections, Chinese students coming elsewhere, and going to school, or businesses in the rest of the world opening offices in China -- there were people listening all over the world, hearing this news. The BBC got their first wind of the Chinese quake from Twitter. Twitter announced the existence of the quake several minutes before the US Geological Survey had anything up online for anybody to read. The last time China had a quake of that magnitude it took them three months to admit that it had happened.
第二个故事, 去年五月,中国四川省 发生里氏7.9级的地震, 里氏震级地区范围内有可怕的毁灭。 地震发生时,即时被报道了。 人们用手机传信息。人们拍建筑物的照片。 也拍倒塌的楼房视频。 上传到中国最大的网络服务QQ, 他们推特这个信息。 随着地震频频发生 新闻报道了。 因为社会关系, 中国学生到异地去留学。 其他国家的商人在中国开办事处。 全世界的人们了解了这新闻。 BBC从推特得到中国四川地震的第一消息。 推特报道地震的发生 比美国地质调查早几分钟 在线的任何人都可以了解到。 上一次中国发生那规模的地震 政府花了3个月的时间才承认地震发生了。
(Laughter)
(笑声)
Now they might have liked to have done that here, rather than seeing these pictures go up online. But they weren't given that choice, because their own citizens beat them to the punch. Even the government learned of the earthquake from their own citizens, rather than from the Xinhua News Agency. And this stuff rippled like wildfire. For a while there the top 10 most clicked links on Twitter, the global short messaging service -- nine of the top 10 links were about the quake. People collating information, pointing people to news sources, pointing people to the US geological survey. The 10th one was kittens on a treadmill, but that's the Internet for you.
现在他们有可能喜欢这样做, 而不是看到这些上传的图片。 但是他们别无选择。 因为他们自己公民先发制人报道了新闻。 甚至政府从他们自己的公民那了解到地震。 而不是从新华社。 这个有点像野火燎燃。 有一段时间 推特上前10常被链接的网页, 全球短信服务, 有9个链接都是关于地震的。 人们整理信息, 给人们带来新闻资源 美国地质调查 第十条就好象猫在踏车上,但那就是对于你而言的网络化。
(Laughter)
(笑声)
But nine of the 10 in those first hours. And within half a day donation sites were up, and donations were pouring in from all around the world. This was an incredible, coordinated global response. And the Chinese then, in one of their periods of media openness, decided that they were going to let it go, that they were going to let this citizen reporting fly. And then this happened. People began to figure out, in the Sichuan Provence, that the reason so many school buildings had collapsed -- because tragically the earthquake happened during a school day -- the reason so many school buildings collapsed is that corrupt officials had taken bribes to allow those building to be built to less than code. And so they started, the citizen journalists started
10个里头的9个第一时间。 在半天内捐款网出现。 从全球蜂拥而至的捐款。 这真是不可思议的,协调一致的全球反应。 然后中国,媒体公开化阶段一种 决定让它公开化。 他们开始让居民猛速地报道。 然后这个发生了。 在四川省,人们开始指出, 许多学校倒塌的原因是, 因为地震发生时,悲剧性地,正好是在学校的时间。 许多学校倒塌的原因 是豆腐渣工程 是这些建筑不按指标去建筑。 紧接着,公民记者也开始
reporting that as well. And there was an incredible picture. You may have seen in on the front page of the New York Times. A local official literally prostrated himself in the street, in front of these protesters, in order to get them to go away. Essentially to say, "We will do anything to placate you, just please stop protesting in public."
报道了。这有一副震惊的图片。 你也可能在纽约时报头版看到过。 一个当地官员在街上抗议人群的 前面直接跪倒, 好让她们离开。 基本上说:“我们会弥补一切过失, 请停止抗议吧。”
But these are people who have been radicalized, because, thanks to the one child policy, they have lost everyone in their next generation. Someone who has seen the death of a single child now has nothing to lose. And so the protest kept going. And finally the Chinese cracked down. That was enough of citizen media. And so they began to arrest the protesters. They began to shut down the media that the protests were happening on.
但是人们却被激怒了。 由于计划生育法 他们失去了下一代的孩子。 一些人看到独身孩子的死亡 现在一无所有了。 所以抗议会继续下去。 最终中国采取严厉手段。 居民媒体有很多。 所以他们开始逮捕抗议者。 他们开始封锁抗议者搞的媒体。
China is probably the most successful manager of Internet censorship in the world, using something that is widely described as the Great Firewall of China. And the Great Firewall of China is a set of observation points that assume that media is produced by professionals, it mostly comes in from the outside world, it comes in relatively sparse chunks, and it comes in relatively slowly. And because of those four characteristics they are able to filter it as it comes into the country. But like the Maginot Line, the great firewall of China was facing in the wrong direction for this challenge, because not one of those four things was true in this environment. The media was produced locally. It was produced by amateurs. It was produced quickly. And it was produced at such an incredible abundance that there was no way to filter it as it appeared. And so now the Chinese government, who for a dozen years, has quite successfully filtered the web, is now in the position of having to decide whether to allow or shut down entire services, because the transformation to amateur media is so enormous that they can't deal with it any other way.
中国可能是世界上最成功的 网络审查监管人, 使用一些被广泛称为的中国防火墙。 中国防火墙 是设置观察点 以确保专家弄出媒体, 主要监察的是外部世界, 和相对分散的媒体, 相对比较慢。 通过这四个特点 中国政府可以过滤它,然后这种媒体才进入到中国。 就好像是马其诺防线, 中国防火墙 搞错了对象。 因为在当下这四个特点都站不住脚。 由于媒体当地化和业余化, 媒体很快就形成,产生了不可思议的丰富内容。 政府已没有办法去过滤已经发布的媒体。 所以现在中国政府,花了20年, 相当成功地过滤网页, 现在要决定 是否容许或者关闭整个服务器。 因为大众媒体的转变 是如此巨大而找不出好的方法来解决。
And in fact that is happening this week. On the 20th anniversary of Tiananmen they just, two days ago, announced that they were simply shutting down access to Twitter, because there was no way to filter it other than that. They had to turn the spigot entirely off. Now these changes don't just affect people who want to censor messages. They also affect people who want to send messages,
事实这周也发生了。 于天安门20周年庆时 他们2天前宣布 他们已经关闭推特的使用。 没法去过滤它就关闭。 他们要关闭整个推特接口信息。 现在这些变化不仅仅影响审查信息的人们。 他也影响传递信息的人们。
because this is really a transformation of the ecosystem as a whole, not just a particular strategy. The classic media problem, from the 20th century is, how does an organization have a message that they want to get out to a group of people distributed at the edges of a network. And here is the twentieth century answer. Bundle up the message. Send the same message to everybody. National message. Targeted individuals. Relatively sparse number of producers. Very expensive to do, so there is not a lot of competition. This is how you reach people. All of that is over.
这确实如一个统为一体的生态系统转变。 不仅仅指特别的战略。 自从20世纪,传统的媒体问题 是怎样让组织发布一个 信息 传递到一个网络组里的成员。 这是20世纪的答案。 捆绑信息。传递同一信息给每个人。 全国信息。针对性个体。 相对分散生成者。 非常昂贵去媒体化。 所以没有激烈的竞争。 这就是你怎么传递信息给人们的。 这已经都是过去的。
We are increasingly in a landscape where media is global, social, ubiquitous and cheap. Now most organizations that are trying to send messages to the outside world, to the distributed collection of the audience, are now used to this change. The audience can talk back. And that's a little freaky. But you can get used to it after a while, as people do.
我们快速经历一个媒体全球化的前景。 社会化,无处不在的和便宜的。 现在多数组织开始发布信息 给外面世界,引起公众的关注, 好现在适应这种变化。 公众可以恢复会话。 这有点奇特。但是你过一段就会习惯,随着人们这样做。
But that's not the really crazy change that we're living in the middle of. The really crazy change is here: it's the fact that they are no longer disconnected from each other, the fact that former consumers are now producers, the fact that the audience can talk directly to one another; because there is a lot more amateurs than professionals, and because the size of the network, the complexity of the network is actually the square of the number of participants, meaning that the network, when it grows large, grows very, very large.
我们生活其中,但这绝对不是疯狂的变化。 比较疯狂变化是这里。 事实上,彼此之间不再被分隔。 以前消费者现转为生成者。 公众可以直接和另一个公众交流。 有比专业多得多的业余媒体者。 因为网络的规模, 复杂化实际上是参与者数量 的平方。 意味网络,它变大, 变得异常,异常大。
As recently at last decade, most of the media that was available for public consumption was produced by professionals. Those days are over, never to return. It is the green lines now, that are the source of the free content, which brings me to my last story. We saw some of the most imaginative use of social media during the Obama campaign.
过去的最近十年, 大众消费的多数媒体 是专业形成的。 那些日子一去不复返。 现在是绿色信息年代,免费内容的来源。 我的最后一个故事。 在奥巴马竞选活动,我看到一些很有想象化的社会媒体 应用。
And I don't mean most imaginative use in politics -- I mean most imaginative use ever. And one of the things Obama did, was they famously, the Obama campaign did, was they famously put up MyBarackObama.com, myBO.com And millions of citizens rushed in to participate, and to try and figure out how to help. An incredible conversation sprung up there. And then, this time last year, Obama announced that he was going to change his vote on FISA, The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. He had said, in January, that he would not sign a bill that granted telecom immunity for possibly warrantless spying on American persons. By the summer, in the middle of the general campaign, He said, "I've thought about the issue more. I've changed my mind. I'm going to vote for this bill." And many of his own supporters on his own site went very publicly berserk.
我不是指政治上的想象化应用。 而是曾具最具创意想象的应用。 奥巴马做过其中之一,比较出名的, 在奥巴马竞选中,他们建了有名的 My Barak Obama dot com, myBO.com (同一个网站) 百万市民蜂拥而入, 尝试和弄明白怎么帮助奥巴马。 令人吃惊的对话开始出现。 然后,去年这个时候, 奥巴马宣布他将改变他在FISA的选票。 外国情报监察法。 在1月份,他说过,将不签署这项 授权电信系统监视 美国人的议案。 夏天,大型竞选期间, 他说, 这个问题我想很多。我要改变我的观点。 我要对这议案投一票。 在他自己网站的许多支持者 公开地对此生气,狂怒。
It was Senator Obama when they created it. They changed the name later. "Please get FISA right." Within days of this group being created it was the fastest growing group on myBO.com; within weeks of its being created it was the largest group. Obama had to issue a press release. He had to issue a reply. And he said essentially, "I have considered the issue. I understand where you are coming from. But having considered it all, I'm still going to vote the way I'm going to vote. But I wanted to reach out to you and say, I understand that you disagree with me, and I'm going to take my lumps on this one."
他们推选了参议员奥巴马,之后他们改变总统投票。 请让外国情报监察法合理化。 随着这个组织刚产生的几天之内 在myBO.com 是最快增长的组织。 几周内他是最大的了。 奥巴马只好召开一个新闻发布。 他不得不公开回复。 他基本上说:“我已经考虑这个问题。 我理解你们都是从哪里来。 但是全面考虑,我还是要去投我应该投的票。 但是我想让你们知道,我理解你们和我意见不统一。 我在这一点不会妥协。
This didn't please anybody. But then a funny thing happened in the conversation. People in that group realized that Obama had never shut them down. Nobody in the Obama campaign had ever tried to hide the group or make it harder to join, to deny its existence, to delete it, to take to off the site. They had understood that their role with myBO.com was to convene their supporters but not to control their supporters.
这并没有取悦任何人。但是在这个会话里有趣的事发生了。 组里的人们意识到 奥巴马没有把组织关闭。 在奥巴马竞选团队里没有一个人曾试图隐藏组织 或者使组织很难加入, 否定它的存在,删除它, 取缔网站。 他们知道他们的角色 用myBO.com 去召集他们的支持者 但不是控制他们的支持者。
And that is the kind of discipline that it takes to make really mature use of this media. Media, the media landscape that we knew, as familiar as it was, as easy conceptually as it was to deal with the idea that professionals broadcast messages to amateurs, is increasingly slipping away. In a world where media is global, social, ubiquitous and cheap, in a world of media where the former audience are now increasingly full participants, in that world, media is less and less often about crafting a single message to be consumed by individuals. It is more and more often a way of creating an environment for convening and supporting groups.
这是一种 媒体成熟 使用的体系。 媒体,我们虽知道的,曾熟悉的媒体前景, 简单概念就是 专业广播人报道 给业余大众的观点 迅速悄然而逝。 在这个世界里,媒体是全球化,社会化,无处不在和廉价的, 媒体世界原先的大众 现在急速完全参与为媒体者, 在这个世界,媒体就是显而易见 关于生成一个信息 会被不同的个体分享消化。 它会越来越明显 创造一个聚集 和支持组织的方式。
And the choice we face, I mean anybody who has a message they want to have heard anywhere in the world, isn't whether or not that is the media environment we want to operate in. That's the media environment we've got. The question we all face now is, "How can we make best use of this media? Even though it means changing the way we've always done it." Thank you very much.
我们面临选择,不管媒体环境对我们是否有利, 我指发信息的任何人想让 世界上任何地方都能 了解到信息媒体。 这才是我们要的媒体环境。 现在我们都面临的问题是, “我们怎样更好应用这个媒体? 尽管他意味我们得随时改变即以执行的方法。” 十分感谢。
(Applause)
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