Future tech always comes with two things: promise and unintended consequences. And it's those consequences that I want to explore. And before we get to how future tech may affect us, I'd like to spend a little time exploring the unintended consequences of some of our recent tech, namely, social media. Social media, a few short years ago, was the tech of future you. Now it just is you. Social media was supposed to bring us together in ways we could never imagine. And the predictors were correct. These three girls are talking to one another without the awkward discomfort of eye contact.
有两样东西总是随未来科技而来 承诺 和意外成果 而这些成果正是我想要去探索的 在了解未来科技 会怎样影响我们之前 我会花一点时间去探索我们科技的 一些意外成果 也就是社交媒体 短短几年间 社交媒体从未来科技 变成了现实 当时认为社交媒体 将会以我们从未想象过的方式 把我们聚集到一起 这种预测是对的 这三个女孩正在自如地聊天 还完美地避免了对视的尴尬
(Laughter)
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I call that advancement.
我认为这是一种进步
We were supposed to be caught up in a communication tsunami, the likes of which the world has never seen. And that did happen. And so did this.
还有人预测我们将会被卷入一场 前所未有的世界性社交海啸 事实的确如此 这也是
(Sings) One of these things is not like the other.
(唱歌)有一个人 他落单了
(Speaks) Now, look at this picture. If you picked the guy with the book, you’re wrong -- or, as a certain president would say, "Wrong!"
(说话)现在来看看这张照片 如果你在关注看书的那位 那就错了 就像某位总统说的一样 “错了!”
(Laughter)
(笑声)
Clearly, three of these guys are reading, and one guy, on the end, is listening to music and playing "Candy Crush."
显然 这三位仁兄都在阅读 而坐在边上的那位则在听音乐 和玩消消乐
(Laughter)
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So are we more connected, or are we just more connected to our devices? Social media was supposed to place us in a veritable town square, where we could engage one another with challenging ideas and debates. And instead what we got were trolls. This is an actual tweet that I received. "Chuck, no one wants to hear your stupid, ill-informed political views! I hope you get leprosy and die. Love, Dad"
那到底是人与人的关系变得更亲密 还是人与机的关系变得更亲密了 社交媒体理应要给我们 提供一个真正的言论广场 让我们的思想碰撞 相互辩论 可事实上迎接我们的 是大量的“投饵” 这是我收到过的一条真实推特信息 “Chuck 没人想听你那些 愚蠢的 一知半解的政治见解 我希望你得庥风死掉 爱你的 老爸
(Laughter)
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Now, the great thing about that tweet if you look at it, just like most trolls, it's not that bad, because he wished "leporsy" on me instead of "leprosy," and "leporsy" is not dangerous at all.
好消息是 如果你认真看这条推特 它跟大部分投饵一样没啥大碍 因为他希望我得“庥风” 而不是“麻风” 而“庥风”是完全无害的
(Laughter)
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(Applause)
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Along with trolls, we got a brand new way of torturing teenagers -- cyberbullying. A concept that my 75-year-old mother just can't seem to wrap her head around.
伴随着投饵 一种折磨青少年的 新方式诞生了—— 网络欺凌 这概念会让我七十五岁的 老母亲摸不着头脑
"So, uh, did they hit him?"
“那,他们打他了吗?”
"No, Mom, they didn't hit him."
“不,妈妈,他们没有。”
"Did they take his money?"
“那他们拿他钱了吗?”
"No, Mom, they didn't take his money."
“不,妈妈,他们没拿他钱。”
"Did they put his face in the toilet?"
“他们把他的脸按在厕所上了吗?”
"No, Mom, they didn't --"
“不,妈妈,他们没这么干……”
"Well, what did they do?"
“所以他们到底干啥了?”
"They attacked him on the internet."
“他们在网上攻击他。”
"Attacked him on the internet?"
“在网上攻击他?”
(Laughter)
(笑声)
"Well, why don't you just turn off the internet?"
“那你直接断网不就得了?”
(Laughter)
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"Your whole generation is a bunch of wussies."
“你们这代人全是软蛋。”
(Laughter)
(笑声)
She's got a point.
她的话倒是没毛病
(Laughter)
(笑声)
She's got a point.
没毛病
And I don't even want to talk about what social media has done to dating. I was on Grindr until I found out it wasn't a sandwich app.
我甚至都不想谈 社交媒体是怎么毁掉约会的 我上了 Grindr 才知道 原来它不是一款三明治手机叫餐应用
(Laughter)
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And I can't even tell you about Tinder, except for the fact that if you think there is a limit to the amount of anonymous sex we can have on this planet, you are sadly mistaken.
更别说 Tinder 了 如果你认为这世上只有 极少人会匿名约炮 那就大错特错了
(Laughter)
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So where do we go from here? Well, let's just jump right in and play the hits. Driverless cars. Something that has already been around for many years, just without the assistance of computers.
接下来要谈什么呢 一起来玩碰碰车吧 无人驾驶汽车 其实多年前我们已经做到了 只不过以前没有用电脑而已
(Laughter)
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(Applause) Because for years, we have been driving while texting, putting on makeup, shaving, reading -- actually reading -- that would be me.
(掌声) 因为多年来我们都是 一边开车一边发信息 一边化妆 一边刮胡子 阅读 如果真有会人阅读 那说的就是我
(Laughter)
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The other thing is that since driverless cars will be shared, most people won't own cars, and that means the DMV will go away. The DMV -- I know what you're saying right now. "There's no way this guy is going to stand up here and make a case for the DMV." Well, I don't know about you, but I do not want to live in a world where harsh fluorescent lights, endless lines, terrible forms to fill out and disaffected, soulless bureaucrats remind me that I am pretty damn lucky not to work here.
同时 既然无人驾驶汽车将会共享 大部分人都不会买车了 意味着车辆管理局要退出历史舞台了 车辆管理局——我知道你在想什么 “这人不可能会支持 车辆管理局。” 好吧 我不了解你 但我真的不想在这么一个世界生活: 充斥着刺眼的灯光 一眼望不到头的长队 烦人的表格 还有心怀不满 行尸走肉般的官僚 提醒我幸亏自己没在那儿工作
(Laughter)
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That is the real service they provide. The DMV: come for the registration renewal, stay for the satisfaction of knowing you made some pretty good life choices.
这就是他们真正提供的服务 车辆管理局: 为注册续签而生 致力于让你做出好的生活抉择
(Laughter)
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Nobody will own their car in the future, and that means teenagers will not have a place to make out. So you know what that means. That means they will order driverless cars to do just that. I do not want to step into a vehicle and ask the question: "Why does this car smell like awkwardness, failure and shame?"
将来没人会开私家车了 青少年也少了一个卿卿我我的地方 也就是说 他们会叫一辆无人驾驶汽车来代替 我可不想在进车时有这样的疑惑 “为什么我嗅到了 笨拙、失败和羞耻的气息?”
(Laughter)
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If I want to ask that question, I'll walk into my own bedroom.
如果我真想问这么一个问题 我会回我自己房间的
(Laughter)
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So what else do we have to look forward to? That's right, artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence, yes. You know, there was a time when artificial intelligence was a joke. I mean, literally a quip that you would hear at a cocktail party when somebody would bring it up in conversation: "Artificial intelligence. The only real artificial intelligence is our American Congress. Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha." Well, it's not funny anymore.
那还有什么要吐槽的呢 对 就是人工智能 没错 人工智能 曾几何时 人工智能还只是个笑话 而且还是有些人会在 鸡尾酒派对上说的俏皮话 “人工智能 唯一真正的人工智能就是美国国会 哈哈哈哈哈“ 不过这已经不好笑了
(Laughter)
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Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk and Bill Gates have all gone on record expressing grave reservations about artificial intelligence. That's like Jesus, Moses and Muhammad coming together and saying, "Guy, guys -- here's something we can all believe in."
斯蒂芬·霍金 埃隆·马斯克 比尔·盖茨 都曾表达过对人工智能的悲观看法 就好像耶稣 摩西和 穆罕默迪聚在一起说: “嘿,嘿,你们真的要相信。”
(Laughter)
(笑声)
You might want to go with that, is all I'm saying. We are actually teaching machines how to think, how to understand our behavior, how to defend themselves and even practice deception. What could possibly go wrong?
你们可能会真的相信 其实我们就是在教机器怎样思考 怎样理解我们的行为 怎样自我防卫 甚至学会欺骗 这能有什么问题呢
(Laughter)
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The one thing that's for sure: the creation always despises its creator. OK? The Titans rose up against the gods; Lucifer against Jehovah. And anybody who has a teenager has heard these words: "I hate you and you're ruining my life! I hate you!" Now just imagine that sentiment with a machine that can outthink you and is heavily armed.
有一点可以确定的是 造物者总是被自己的作品鄙视 懂吗 泰坦总是会上帝作对 路西法与耶和华作对 各位青少年家长 肯定听过这样的话 “我恨你,你毁了我一生!” “我恨你!” 再想象一下一台比你聪明的机器 会对你怀有怎样的感情 还是全副武装那种
(Laughter)
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The result? Absolutely.
结果呢 显而易见
(Laughter)
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What we need to do before we perfect artificial intelligence is perfect artificial emotions. That way, we can teach the robots or machines how to love us unconditionally, so that when they figure out that the only real problem on this planet is us, instead of destroying us -- which, by the way, is totally logical -- they will find us adorable --
在完善人工智能之前 我们应该完善人工情感 我们可以教机器人或者机器 怎样无条件爱我们 即便他们发现这个星球上的唯一问题 就是我们 它们都不会灭了我们 而是 完全符合逻辑地 觉得我们可爱极了
(Laughter)
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like baby poop.
就跟婴儿拉粑粑一样
(Laughter)
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"Oh my god, I just love the way you just destroyed the planet. I can't stay mad at you, you're so cute! You're so cute!"
“天哪,我爱死你摧毁地球的方式了, 我没办法对你发火,你太可爱了! 你太可爱了!“
(Laughter)
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Can't talk about this without talking about robotics. OK? Remember when you thought robotics were cool? I remember when I thought robotics were cool, until I figured out that they were going to take everybody's place, from the delivery guy down to the heart surgeon. The one thing, though, that is very disappointing about robotics is the holy grail of robotics, and it hasn't even happened. I'm talking about the robot girlfriend, the dream of one lonely geek in a windowless basement who vowed one day: "I am going to marry my creation." And there actually is a movement underway to stop this from happening, for fear of exploitation. And I, for one, am against that movement. I believe we should have robot girlfriends. I just believe that they should come with a feminist protocol and artificial intelligence, so she can take one look at that guy and go, "I am too good for you. I'm leaving."
提到人工智能就必须要谈机器人了 还记得你曾经觉得机器人很酷吗 以前我也觉得机器人很酷 直到我发现它们会取代任何人 从快递员到心脏外科医生 关于机器人 只有一件事让我们失望 那就是我们至今 也未能实现的终极梦想 我说的是机器人女朋友 住在无窗地下室的 孤独极客将她们视为梦想 并终会在将来的某天高呼: “我要跟我的作品结婚。” 事实上也有阻止 这种梦想成真的地下运动 他们唯恐产生剥削 而我 是反对这种运动的 我觉得我们应该要有机器人女朋友 除了有人工智能之外 她们还要懂得女权主义协议 那样她们就可以对人说:“你配不上我, 我要走了。”
(Laughter)
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(Applause)
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And finally, I have to talk about bioengineering, an area of science that promises to end disease before it even begins, to help us live longer, fuller, healthier lives. And when you couple that with implantable hardware, you are looking at the next incarnation of human evolution. And all of that sounds great, until you figure out where it's really going. One place: designer babies, where, no matter where you are on the globe or what your ethnicity, babies will end up looking like that.
最后 我必须要谈一下生物工程 这个科学领域承诺能够预防疾病 让我们活得更长久 更精彩 更健康 只要联想一下植入式硬件 你就能看到人类的下一轮进化 在你搞清楚这是什么意思之前 这一切听起来都很好 比如说: “设计婴儿” 无论你在地球上的哪个地方 是什么种族 生出来的宝宝都会长成这样
(Laughter)
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That boy is surprised because he just found out both his parents are black.
这个小男孩很吃惊 因为他刚得知他的父母都是黑人
(Laughter)
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Can you imagine him at a cocktail party in 20 years? "Yeah, both my parents are black. I mean, it's a little awkward at times, but you should see my credit rating. Impressive, very impressive."
你能想象一下二十年后 他参加鸡尾酒派对的场景吗 “对,我的父母都是黑人。 我是说,虽然有点奇怪, 不过你一定要去看看 我的信用等级 非常高,我真没有骗你。”
(Laughter)
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Now, all of this seems scary, and everybody in this room knows that it isn't. Technology isn't scary. Never has been and it never will be. What's scary is us and what we will do with technology. Will we allow it to expose our humanity, showing our true selves and reinforcing the fact that we are indeed our brother's keeper? Or will we allow it to reveal our deepest, darkest demons?
这一切似乎都很吓人 可这里的每个人都知道这不是事实 科技并不可怕 以前不是 将来也不会 可怕的是我们自己 以及我们会利用科技做的事 我们是用它展现我们的人性 展示我们的真我 深化我们是自己兄弟的依靠这一事实 还是透过它显露自己 内心深处的阴暗面
The true question is not whether or not technology is scary. The true question is: How human are you?
真正的问题不在于科技是否可怕 真正的问题是 你到底是否 枉而为人
Thank you.
谢谢
(Applause)
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