Most people have heard of the Electoral College during presidential election years. But what exactly is the Electoral College? Simply said, it is a group of people appointed by each state who formally elect the President and Vice President of the United States. To understand how this process began and how it continues today, we can look at the Constitution of the United States: article two, section one, clause two of the constitution. It specifies how many electors each state is entitled to have. Since 1964, there have been 538 electors in each presidential election. How do they decide on the number 538? Well, the number of electors is equal to the total voting membership of the United States Congress. 435 representatives, plus 100 senators, and 3 electors from the District of Columbia. Essentially, the Democratic candidate and Republican candidate are each trying to add up the electors in every state so that they surpass 270 electoral votes, or just over half the 538 votes, and win the presidency. So how do states even get electoral votes? Each state receives a particular number of electors based on population size. The census is conducted every 10 years, so every time the census happens, states might gain or lose a few electoral votes. Let's say you're a voter in California, a state with 55 electoral votes. If your candidate wins in California, they get all 55 of the state's electoral votes. If your candidate loses, they get none. This is why many presidential candidates want to win states like Texas, Florida, and New York. If you currently add up the electoral votes of those three states, you would have 96 electoral votes. Even if a candidate won North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Vermont, New Hampshire. Connecticut and West Virginia, they would only gain 31 electoral votes total from those eight states. Here is where it can get a little tricky. On a rare occasion, like in the year 2000, someone can win the popular vote but fail to gain 270 electoral votes. This means that the winner may have won and collected their electoral votes by small margins, winning just enough states with just enough electoral votes, but the losing candidate may have captured large voter margins in the remaining states. If this is the case, the very large margins secured by the losing candidate in the other states would add up to over 50% of the ballots cast nationally. Therefore, the losing candidate may have gained more than 50% of the ballots cast by voters, but failed to gain 270 of the electoral votes. Some critics of the electoral college argue the system gives an unfair advantage to states with large numbers of electoral votes. Think of it this way. It is possible for a candidate to not get a single person's vote -- not one vote -- in 39 states, or the District of Columbia, yet be elected president by winning the popular vote in just 11 of these 12 states: California, New York, Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Georgia or Virginia. This is why both parties pay attention to these states. However, others argue that the electoral college protects small states such as Rhode Island, Vermont and New Hampshire, and even geographically large states with small populations like Alaska, Wyoming and the Dakotas. That's because a candidate can't completely ignore small states, because in a close election, every electoral vote counts. There are certain states that have a long history of voting for a particular party. These are known as "safe states." For the past four election cycles -- in 1996, 2000, 2004 and 2008 -- Democrats could count on states like Oregon, Maryland, Michigan and Massachusetts, whereas the Republicans could count on states like Mississippi, Alabama, Kansas and Idaho. States that are teetering between between parties are called "swing states." In the past four election cycles, Ohio and Florida have been swing states, twice providing electoral votes for a Democratic candidate, and twice providing electoral votes for a Republican candidate. Think about it. Do you live in a safe state? If so, is it a Democratic or Republican safe state? Do you live in a swing state? Are your neighboring states swing or safe? Is the population in your state increasing or decreasing? And do not forget, when you are watching the electoral returns on election night every four years and the big map of the United States is on the screen, know that the magic number is 270 and start adding.
在美國大選年,很多人聽過 「選舉人團」 究竟什麼是選舉人團呢? 簡單的說,就是各州指派的一群人 形式上由這群人選出正副總統 要了解這個制度的來龍去脈 我們可以看一下美國憲法 第二條,第一款,第二項 它明確指出各州有幾位選舉人 1964 年起,每屆總統大選 都有 538 位選舉人 538 這個數字是怎麼決定的呢? 選舉人的數目等於國會的 參、眾議員總數 435 位眾議員,加 100 位參議員 還有 3 位哥倫比亞特區的選舉人 基本上,不論民主或共和黨候選人 都想讓各州的得票數 加起來超過 270 票 即是 538 票的過半選票 就可贏得大選 那麼各州是怎麼得到選舉人票的? 每州依照人口數 會被分配到一定數量的選舉人 人口普查每十年進行一次,普查後 各州選舉人票可能略有增減 比如說你是加州的選民 加州有 55 張選舉人票 如果你的候選人在加州勝選 就會得到全部的 55 張選舉人票 若他在加州敗選,就一票也拿不到 這就是為何許多候選人想贏得 德州、佛羅里達州、紐約州的選票 如果你把這三州選舉人的票數相加 你會得到 96 票 即使候選人贏得北達科他州、 南達科他州、蒙大拿州、懷俄明州、 佛蒙特州、新罕布夏州、 康乃狄克州、西維吉尼亞州的選票 這八州總共也只有 31 張選舉人票 這就是有點弔詭的地方了 在極少數情況下,如 2000 年大選 有人獲得較多的選票 卻沒辦法得到 270 張選舉人票 意思是說,勝選的那方,可能 只在各州險勝,而獲得選舉人票 在剛好夠多的州裡 得到剛好夠多的選舉人票 而敗選的那方 也許在其餘各州都大勝對方 若是如此,敗選者在各州 得到的大量領先票數 可能加起起來會超過 全國總投票數的 50% 因此,敗選者可能得到 一半以上的選民支持 卻沒辦法得到 270 張選舉人票 有批評者認為,此制度對於有大量 選舉人票的各州,有不公平的優勢 可以這樣想 候選人可能在 39 州及哥倫比亞特區 一票未得 但在下列 12州裡贏了 11 州 因而當選總統: 加州、紐約州、德州、佛羅里達州、 賓州、依利諾州、俄亥俄州、 密西根州、紐澤西州、 北卡羅萊納州、喬治亞州或維吉尼亞州 這就是為什麼兩黨 都注重這幾州的原因 然而,也有人認為選舉人團制度 保護了較小的州 如羅德島州、佛蒙特州、 新罕布夏州 甚至還有一些地廣人稀的州 如阿拉斯加州、懷俄明州、 南、北達科他州 表示候選人不能完全忽略小州 在一場勢均力敵的選舉中 每張選舉人票都是關鍵 有些州長久都投給同一個政黨 這些州被稱作「鐵票州」 過去四次選舉中,也就是 1996、2000、2004、2008 年 民主黨可依賴俄勒岡州、馬里蘭州、 密西根州、麻薩諸塞州 而共和黨可依賴密西西比州、 阿拉巴馬州、堪薩州斯、愛達荷州 搖擺於不同政黨之間的州叫作 「搖擺州」 在過去的四次選舉裡 俄亥俄州和佛羅里達州就是搖擺州 兩次投給民主黨、 兩次投給共和黨 想想看,你是住在鐵票州嗎? 如果是的話 是民主黨或共和黨的鐵票州? 或是你住在搖擺州嗎? 鄰近的州是搖擺州或鐵票州呢? 你那州的人口數是增加或減少呢? 別忘了,當你看著 四年一次的大選開票轉播 美國大地圖顯示在螢幕上時 記得關鍵數字就是 270 然後開始加加看吧