I have one more reason for optimism: climate change. Maybe you don't believe it, but here is the fact.
我樂觀的原因還有這個: 那便是氣候變化。 也許你們還不太相信, 然而這就是事實。
On December 12, 2015, in Paris, under the United Nations, 195 governments got together and unanimously -- if you've worked with governments, you know how difficult that is -- unanimously decided to intentionally change the course of the global economy in order to protect the most vulnerable and improve the life of all of us. Now, that is a remarkable achievement.
2015年的12月12日 在法國巴黎的聯合國大會上, 195 個國家齊聚一堂, 達成了一致的共識 —— 如果各位和政府打過交道, 各位應該知道這非常困難, 全體達成一致的共識, 傾全心改變全球經濟的發展, 來保障最弱勢的族群, 並提升我們所有人的生活。 這真的是一項了不起的成就。
(Applause)
(掌聲)
But it is even more remarkable if you consider where we had been just a few years ago. 2009, Copenhagen. Who remembers Copenhagen? Well, after years of working toward a climate agreement, the same governments convened in Copenhagen and failed miserably.
然而,更不得了的地方是, 如果各位回想一下,就在幾年前, 2009年,在哥本哈根的會議。 誰還記得哥本哈根會議? 經過了長年累月 有關氣候協議的努力, 同樣的與會國家 被召集到哥本哈根, 結局卻是慘不忍睹。
Why did it fail miserably? For many different reasons, but primarily because of the deeply entrenched divide between the global North and the global South. So now, six months after this failure, I was called in to assume the responsibility of the global climate change negotiations. You can imagine, the perfect moment to start this new job. The global mood on climate change was in the trash can. No one believed that a global agreement could ever be possible. In fact, neither did I. If you promise not to tell anyone outside of this wonderful TED audience, I'm going to divulge a secret that has been gratefully buried by history. On my first press conference, a journalist asked, "Um, Ms. Figueres, do you think that a global agreement is ever going to be possible?" And without engaging brain, I heard me utter, "Not in my lifetime." Well, you can imagine the faces of my press team who were horrified at this crazy Costa Rican woman who was their new boss. And I was horrified, too. Now, I wasn't horrified at me, because I'm kind of used to myself. I was actually horrified at the consequences of what I had just said, at the consequences for the world in which all our children are going to have to live. It was frankly a horrible moment for me, and I thought, well, no, hang on, hang on. Impossible is not a fact, it's an attitude. It's only an attitude. And I decided right then and there that I was going to change my attitude and I was going to help the world change its attitude on climate change.
為什麽會這樣呢? 理由有很多, 但最主要是因為 存在於南北半球國家之間, 那根深蒂固的分歧。 然而如今,在失敗過後的六個月, 我被委任接受這項 全球氣候變化談判的職責。 你可以想像,現在開始進行 這項新工作真的是最佳時刻啊! 全球對氣候變化的關懷 簡直是被丟到垃圾桶了。 根本沒有人會相信 全球能在此問題上達成共識。 實際上,我也是這麽想的。 如果在座優秀的 TED 觀眾, 大家保證能守口如瓶的話, 我準備告訴各位一個秘密, 這個秘密一直被 歷史完好封存著。 在我首次的新聞發布會上, 有名記者提問到: “ 嗯,菲格雷斯女士, 妳認為全球共識有可能實現嗎?” 我大腦還沒反應過來時, 卻聽見自己竟脫口說出, “我這輩子都不可能...” 各位可以想象我的 新聞團隊他們臉上的表情, 大家都被這個來自 哥斯達黎加的瘋女人嚇到, 而且這個女人 還是他們的新上司。 其實,我當時也被自己嚇到了。 我並非被那個自己 早已習慣的風格所嚇到, 我真正害怕的是, 我說出去的話所帶來的後果, 及這個我們子子孫孫 都還要生活的世界 所帶來的後果。 那一刻對我來說真是可怕, 然後我想,不,等等, 等等, 「不可能」不是一個 既定的事實, 而是一種「態度」。 這僅僅是一種態度。 就在那刻, 我立刻改變了我的態度, 我也要幫助這個世界, 來改變他們對氣候變化的態度。
So I don't know -- No, just this? Thanks. I don't know -- what you would do if you were told your job is to save the planet. Put that on the job description. And you have full responsibility, but you have absolutely no authority, because governments are sovereign in every decision that they take.
所以,我不知道—— 不,就是這個?謝謝。 我不知道—— 如果你被告知你的工作是 要來拯救這個星球, 你會怎麽做? 然後把它寫到你的工作描述中。 而且你要負起全責, 但你卻完全沒有被授權, 因為政府才是每個決策 的最高統治者。
Well, I would really love to know what you would do on the first Monday morning, but here's what I did: I panicked.
我著實很想了解, 各位在第一個星期一 的早晨,會怎麽做? 但我當時是:極度恐慌。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
And then I panicked again, because I realized I have no idea how we're going to solve this problem. And then I realized I have no idea how we're going to solve this problem, but I do know one thing: we have got to change the tone of this conversation. Because there is no way you can deliver victory without optimism.
接著,我還是感到害怕, 因為我意識到,我根本不知道 該如何解決這個問題。 之後我還是一樣意識到, 我不知道該如何解決這個問題。 但我知道一點: 我們必須要改變這樣的對話氛圍。 如果不積極去面對, 是不可能成功的。
And here, I use optimism as a very simple word, but let's understand it in its broader sense. Let's understand it as courage, hope, trust, solidarity, the fundamental belief that we humans can come together and can help each other to better the fate of mankind. Well, you can imagine that I thought that without that, there was no way we were going to get out of the paralysis of Copenhagen. And for six years, I have stubbornly, relentlessly injected optimism into the system, no matter what the questions from the press -- and I have gotten better at those -- and no matter what the evidence to the contrary. And believe you me, there has been a lot of contrary evidence. But relentless optimism into the system.
在此, 我用「正面向上」這個非常簡單的詞 來形容這件事的解決方式, 但讓我們先從廣義層面上 來理解這個詞。 讓我們把它理解為勇氣、 希望、信任以及齊心協力, 秉持著人類能夠團結在一起 的基本信念, 以及能夠為了人類 將來的幸福而相互幫助。 各位可以試想一下, 如果我不這麽想, 可能我們便沒有辦法 從哥本哈根的爛攤子裏走出來。 這六年來, 我懷抱著不屈不饒的態度, 向這個體系注入樂觀主義, 無論媒體會提出甚麼樣的質疑—— 我現在變得更會處理這些質疑了—— 而且,無論對立面有著怎樣的證據。 相信我,反證一直有很多。 但隨著不屈不饒地 把樂觀主義帶入體系,
And pretty soon, we began to see changes happening in many areas, precipitated by thousands of people, including many of you here today, and I thank you. And this TED community will not be surprised if I tell you the first area in which we saw remarkable change was ... technology. We began to see that clean technologies, in particular renewable energy technologies, began to drop price and increase in capacity, to the point where today we are already building concentrated solar power plants that have the capacity to power entire cities, to say nothing of the fact of what we are doing on mobility and intelligent buildings. And with this shift in technologies, we were able to begin to understand that there was a shift in the economic equation, because we were able to recognize that yes, there are huge costs to climate change, and yes, there are compounded risks. But there also are economic advantages and intrinsic benefits, because the dissemination of the clean technologies is going to bring us cleaner air, better health, better transportation, more livable cities, more energy security, more energy access to the developing world. In sum, a better world than what we have now.
很快地, 我們開始在很多領域裏 看到了改變, 數以千計的人參與其中, 也包括今天在座的各位, 對此,我向你們表達我的謝意。 我想,TED 社群應該對我 待會要說的不會感到驚訝, 我向各位報告, 我們所看到第一個 了不起改變的領域, 就是... 科技。 我們開始看到新的綠能科技 一直陸陸續續出來, 特別是再生能源技術, 從降低成本開始, 到提升容量, 到如今我們已經建造出來的 太陽能發電廠, 可以產出足夠的能量 供給整個城市, 更不用提,我們現在 正在建造的智慧行動建築物。 因這些科技的轉變, 我們也有能力開始了解到 經濟模式上的轉變, 因為大家都認同... 沒錯,氣候變化會讓我們 付出巨大的代價, 沒錯,其中也有各種風險。 但也有經濟效益 及本質上的好處, 因為綠能科技的散播, 能夠帶給我們更新鮮的空氣、 更健康的生活、 更順暢的交通、 更多的宜居城市、 更多安全的能源, 以及能夠幫助更多 發展中國家能源的出口。 總而言之,一個比我們現在 還要好的世界。
And with that understanding, you should have witnessed, in fact, part of you were, the spread of ingenuity and excitement that went through, first through nonnational governments, the private sector, captains of industry, insurance companies, investors, city leaders, faith communities, because they all began to understand, this actually can be in their interest. This can actually improve their bottom line.
有了這樣的體悟, 各位應該都已見證到,事實上, 部分人已經感受到 聰明才智和興奮的蔓延, 已經首先蔓延到非國家政府組織, 私營企業、資本產業、保險公司、 投資人、城市領導人、宗教團體, 因為他們都開始了解, 這著實和他們的切身利益有關。 這確實可以帶給他們很多好處。
And it wasn't just the usual suspects. I have to tell you I had the CEO of a major, major oil and gas company come to me at the beginning of last year and say -- privately, of course -- he did not know how he was going to change his company, but he is going to change it, because he's interested in long-term viability. Well, now we have a shift in the economic equation, and with that, with broader support from everyone, it did not take very long before we saw that national governments woke up to the fact that this is in their national interest. And when we asked countries to begin to identify how they could contribute to global efforts but based on their national interest, 189 countries out of 195, 189 countries sent their comprehensive climate change plans, based on their national interest, concurrent with their priorities, consistent with their national sustainable development plans.
而這並不是常有的事。 我必須告訴各位,我有位大型 石油天然氣公司的首席執行官, 在去年年初的時候找到我, 和我說道 -- 當然,是私底下 -- 他當時不知道 該如何改變目前的公司狀況, 但是他有這個打算, 因為他注重的是 公司長久的生存之道。 現在,我們在經濟平衡 方面有了轉變, 而由於這個轉變 及大家廣泛的支持, 不用多久的時間,我們就可以看到 各國政府在對自身國家利益上的覺醒 應該也快到來了。 而當我們開始要求各國政府提出計畫, 如何在兼顧自己國家的利益前提下, 同時為全球做出貢獻, 195 個裡面,有189 個國家, 這189個國家已經送出了 對氣候變化全方位的改善計畫。 不僅基於國家利益上, 他們的優先發展事項, 也都能與各國永續發展計劃相輔相成。
Well, once you protect the core interests of nations, then you can understand that nations were ready to begin to converge onto a common path, onto a common direction of travel that is going to take us probably several decades, but over those several decades is going to take us into the new economy, into a decarbonized, highly resilient economy, And the national contributions that are currently on the table on behalf of national governments are insufficient to get us to a stabilized climate, but they are only the first step, and they will improve over time. And the measurement, reporting and verification of all of those efforts is legally binding. And the checkpoints that we're going to have every five years to assess collective progress towards our goal are legally binding, and the path itself toward a decarbonized and more resilient economy is legally binding.
當然, 一旦你保護了各國的核心利益, 你就會了解到,各國也都準備好 開始通往同一條道路, 大家為同一個方向努力, 這也許會花我們數十年的時間, 但過了這數十年後, 一個展新的經濟繁榮時代, 一個脫碳化、高強度晉升 的經濟時代。 目前檯面上這些代表各國政府 對我們環境貢獻所提出的計畫 雖然不足以帶給我們 一個穩定的氣候, 但他們已經邁出了第一步, 而且他們會隨著時間,持續改進。 而這些結果的衡量、匯報以及檢驗, 都是具有法律約束力的。 而我們每五年所要面對的檢驗關卡, 包括為了達到我們目標 對總體進展的檢驗, 以及通往減碳、強勁的 經濟復甦道路所進行的檢驗, 都是具有法律約束力的。
And here's the more important part: What did we have before? A very small handful of countries who had undertaken very reduced, short-term emission reduction commitments that were completely insufficient and furthermore, largely perceived as a burden. Now what do we have? Now we have all countries of the world contributing with different intensities from different approaches in different sectors, but all of them contributing to a common goal and along a path with environmental integrity. Well, once you have all of this in place and you have shifted this understanding, then you see that governments were able to go to Paris and adopt the Paris agreement.
還有更重要的是: 我們之前有的是什麼? 只有少數幾個國家, 做到了非常少量、 短期的減碳承諾, 但這根本完全不夠, 此外,很大程度上, 減碳被各國視為是一種負擔。 那現在我們擁有什麼? 我們現在有的是,世界各個國家 用不同的方式 在不同的區域、不同的領域 做出他們的貢獻, 但大家都是為了同一個目標, 朝著同一方向前進, 為全球永續環境努力。 一旦所有事物都適得其所, 你也開始改變想法, 那你就會看到各國政府 都有能力可以前往巴黎 並接受巴黎的協議。
(Applause)
(掌聲)
So, as I look back over the past six years, first I remember the day the Paris agreement was adopted. I cannot tell you the euphoria in the room. 5,000 people jumping out of their seats, crying, clapping, screaming, yelling, torn between euphoria and still disbelief at what they had just seen, because so many people had worked for years towards this, and this was finally their reality.
所以, 當我回顧這一切, 回顧過去的這六年, 跳出的第一件事, 便是巴黎協議被采納的那天。 我無法形容當時 在那個空間裏的興奮度。 5000個人都高興的 從椅子上跳了起來, 哭泣,鼓掌,尖叫,吶喊著, 大家高興到簡直不敢相信 他們剛剛所見證到的事情。 因為有太多的人, 為達成這個目標努力了好幾年, 而現在終於實現了。
And it wasn't just those who had participated directly. A few weeks ago, I was with a colleague who was trying to decide on a Tahitian pearl that he wanted to give to his wonderful wife Natasha. And once he had finally decided what he was going to buy, the jeweler said to him, "You know, you're very lucky that you're buying this now, because these pearls could go extinct very soon because of climate change." "But," the jeweler said, "have you heard, the governments have just come to a decision, and Tahiti could have a chance." Well, what a fantastic confirmation that perhaps, perhaps here is hope, here is a possible chance. I'm the first one to recognize that we have a lot of work still to do. We've only just started our work on climate change. And in fact, we need to make sure that we redouble our efforts over the next five years that are the urgent five years. But I do believe that we have come over the past six years from the impossible to the now unstoppable. And how did we do that? By injecting transformational optimism that allowed us to go from confrontation to collaboration, that allowed us to understand that national and local interests are not necessarily at odds with global needs, and that if we understand that, we can bring them together and we can merge them harmoniously.
而這不僅僅是 直接參與的那些人很高興。 幾周前,我的一位同事也是, 他當時在為他美麗的妻子Natasha, 挑選大溪地珍珠作為禮物的時候。 在他最後決定要買哪一個的時候, 珠寶店員和他說道, “你知道嗎,你現在 買下這個十分幸運, 因為這些珍珠會因為氣候變化, 很快就都找不到了。” “但是,”店員又說,“你有聽說了嗎, 政府剛提出一個決策, 讓大溪地可能還有一線希望。” 是的,多麼棒的證實, 可能,有可能便有希望, 這裡就可能有一線希望。 我是第一個體認到 我們還有很多事要去做的人。 在氣候變化的問題上, 我們僅僅只是剛開始而已。 事實上,我們還需要確保我們能夠, 在接下來十分重要的五年內, 能加倍我們的努力。 但我真的相信, 大家這六年來, 我們已經從曾經不可能的泥沼, 成長到如今的勢不可擋的局面。 而我們又是如何做到的呢?就是 藉由注入具有轉變意義的樂觀態度, 讓我們彼此從對峙走到合作, 讓我們理解國家和當地的利益, 沒必要與全球的需求分道揚鑣, 並且如果我們理解這點, 我們就能夠讓大家 團結起來和睦相處。
And as I look forward to other global issues that will require our attention this century -- food security, water security, home security, forced migration -- I see that we certainly do not know how we are going to solve those problems yet. But we can take a page out of what we have done on climate change and we can understand that we have got to reinterpret the zero-sum mentality. Because we were trained to believe that there always are winners and losers, and that your loss is my gain. Well, now that we're in a world in which we have reached planetary boundaries and that we are not just so interconnected, but increasingly interdependent on each other, your loss is no longer my gain. We're either all losers or we all can be winners. But we are going to have to decide between zero and sum. We're going to have to decide between zero benefit for all or living life as the sum of all of us. We've done it once. We can do it again.
當然,我也期望其它的全球議題, 也能在這個世紀得到我們的關注-- 食品安全,水源安全, 家庭保全,強制移民 -- 我想我們目前還不是十分清楚, 該如何解決這些問題。 但我們能為氣候變化上做出的貢獻, 畫下新的篇章, 並且我們知道, 我們應該重新解釋 零和(不是輸就是贏)的想法。 因為我們從小就被灌輸, 有贏家就必定有輸家的觀念, 被灌輸別人的損失, 就是我的獲利的觀念。 然而,我們共同生活在同個世界, 一個我們都會碰到 許多界限的世界, 我們並非只是相互聯結, 更是相互依靠, 你的損失,不再是我的獲利。 我們要麼全都是輸家, 或者要麼全都是贏家。 但我們需要在零和遊戲中做出選擇, 我們需要在「大家都贏」和 「大家都輸」這兩者之間作出選擇。 我們曾經做到, 我們還可以再次做到。
Thanks.
謝謝。
(Applause)
(掌聲)