I have one more reason for optimism: climate change. Maybe you don't believe it, but here is the fact.
我乐观的原因还有这个: 那便是气候变化。 也许你对此不太相信, 然而这便是事实。
On December 12, 2015, in Paris, under the United Nations, 195 governments got together and unanimously -- if you've worked with governments, you know how difficult that is -- unanimously decided to intentionally change the course of the global economy in order to protect the most vulnerable and improve the life of all of us. Now, that is a remarkable achievement.
在2015年的12月12日的巴黎, 受命于联合国的邀请, 195个国家代表齐聚一堂, 并达成全部共识 —— 如果你和政府打过交道, 你应该知道这非常困难, 全体一致的达成共识, 有心去改变全球经济发展的进程, 来保护做弱势的一方, 以及提升我们所有人的生活。 这真的是一项了不起的成就。
(Applause)
(鼓掌)
But it is even more remarkable if you consider where we had been just a few years ago. 2009, Copenhagen. Who remembers Copenhagen? Well, after years of working toward a climate agreement, the same governments convened in Copenhagen and failed miserably.
然而,更不得了的地方是, 如果你回想一下几年前, 2009,在哥本哈根的会议。 谁还记得哥本哈根会议吗? 经过了长年累月有关气候协议的努力, 同样的与会国家被召集到哥本哈根, 结局却是惨不忍睹。
Why did it fail miserably? For many different reasons, but primarily because of the deeply entrenched divide between the global North and the global South. So now, six months after this failure, I was called in to assume the responsibility of the global climate change negotiations. You can imagine, the perfect moment to start this new job. The global mood on climate change was in the trash can. No one believed that a global agreement could ever be possible. In fact, neither did I. If you promise not to tell anyone outside of this wonderful TED audience, I'm going to divulge a secret that has been gratefully buried by history. On my first press conference, a journalist asked, "Um, Ms. Figueres, do you think that a global agreement is ever going to be possible?" And without engaging brain, I heard me utter, "Not in my lifetime." Well, you can imagine the faces of my press team who were horrified at this crazy Costa Rican woman who was their new boss. And I was horrified, too. Now, I wasn't horrified at me, because I'm kind of used to myself. I was actually horrified at the consequences of what I had just said, at the consequences for the world in which all our children are going to have to live. It was frankly a horrible moment for me, and I thought, well, no, hang on, hang on. Impossible is not a fact, it's an attitude. It's only an attitude. And I decided right then and there that I was going to change my attitude and I was going to help the world change its attitude on climate change.
为什么会这样呢? 理由有很多, 但最主要是因为存在于 南北半球国家之间的, 那根深蒂固的分歧。 然而如今,在失败过后的6个月, 我被委任接受这项, 全球气候变化谈判的职责。 你能想象, 这是个开始新工作的最佳时刻。 全球对于气候变化的态度一团糟。 没有人会相信, 全球能在此问题上达成共识, 实际上,我也是这么想的。 除了在座优秀的TED观众, 你能守口如瓶的话, 我准备告诉你们一个秘密, 这个秘密一直被历史完好封存着。 在我首次的新闻发布会上, 有一名记者提问到:“ Figueres女士, 你是否认为要达成全球共识 是不可能完成的?” 大脑还没反应过来时, 我听见自己说道, ” 这辈子是不可能了。“ 当然,你可以想象到 我们新闻团队的表情, 大家都被这个 来自哥斯达黎加的疯女人所震惊, 而且这个女人还是他们的新上司。 其实,我当时也被自己吓到了。 我并非被那个早已习惯了的自己所吓到, 我真正害怕的是, 我话语所带来的后果, 为这个我们子孙都会生活的这个世界, 所带来的后果。 老实讲,对我来说,那是个可怕的一刻, 然后我想,不,我要挺住, 我要挺住。 不可能不是一个既定事实, 而是一种态度。 这仅仅是一种态度。 就在那刻,我立马改变了我的态度, 我也要帮助这个世界, 来改变他们对气候变化的态度。
So I don't know -- No, just this? Thanks. I don't know -- what you would do if you were told your job is to save the planet. Put that on the job description. And you have full responsibility, but you have absolutely no authority, because governments are sovereign in every decision that they take.
我不知道—— 仅仅是这样?谢谢。 我不知道—— 如果让你拯救这个星球, 你会怎么做? 然后把它写到你的工作描述中。 虽然你并没有被赋予任何权利, 但你会感到十足的使命感。 因为政府在作出每个决定时 有着至高无上的权力。
Well, I would really love to know what you would do on the first Monday morning, but here's what I did: I panicked.
我着实很想了解, 在第一个星期一的早晨, 你会怎么做? 我当时是:怕的要死。
(Laughter)
(笑声)
And then I panicked again, because I realized I have no idea how we're going to solve this problem. And then I realized I have no idea how we're going to solve this problem, but I do know one thing: we have got to change the tone of this conversation. Because there is no way you can deliver victory without optimism.
接着,我还是感到害怕, 因为我意识到, 我不知道该如何解决这个问题。 我不知道该如何解决这个问题, 但我知道一点: 我们要改变这个会话的氛围。 如果你不积极面对, 你是不可能成功的。
And here, I use optimism as a very simple word, but let's understand it in its broader sense. Let's understand it as courage, hope, trust, solidarity, the fundamental belief that we humans can come together and can help each other to better the fate of mankind. Well, you can imagine that I thought that without that, there was no way we were going to get out of the paralysis of Copenhagen. And for six years, I have stubbornly, relentlessly injected optimism into the system, no matter what the questions from the press -- and I have gotten better at those -- and no matter what the evidence to the contrary. And believe you me, there has been a lot of contrary evidence. But relentless optimism into the system.
此时此刻, 我以乐观向上这个非常简单的词, 但让我们从广义层面上来理解这个词。 让我们把它理解为勇气, 希望,信任以及齐心协力, 秉持着人类能够聚集在一起的基本信念 以及能够为了更好的命运而相互帮助。 试想一下,如果我不这么想, 可能我们便没有办法从 哥本哈根的无力状态里走出来。 时隔六年, 我怀抱着不屈不饶,冷酷无情的态度, 向这个体系注入乐观主义, 无论新闻发布会上会有怎样的问题, 我现在变得更会处理这些问题了—— 而且,无论对立面有着怎样的蛛丝马迹。 相信我,反证一直有很多。 随着不屈不饶的把乐观主义带入体系,
And pretty soon, we began to see changes happening in many areas, precipitated by thousands of people, including many of you here today, and I thank you. And this TED community will not be surprised if I tell you the first area in which we saw remarkable change was ... technology. We began to see that clean technologies, in particular renewable energy technologies, began to drop price and increase in capacity, to the point where today we are already building concentrated solar power plants that have the capacity to power entire cities, to say nothing of the fact of what we are doing on mobility and intelligent buildings. And with this shift in technologies, we were able to begin to understand that there was a shift in the economic equation, because we were able to recognize that yes, there are huge costs to climate change, and yes, there are compounded risks. But there also are economic advantages and intrinsic benefits, because the dissemination of the clean technologies is going to bring us cleaner air, better health, better transportation, more livable cities, more energy security, more energy access to the developing world. In sum, a better world than what we have now.
过了没多久, 我们开始在很多领域里碰到挑战, 使数百万千的人们突然陷入其中, 也包括今天在座的各位, 对此,我向你们表达我的谢意。 我想,TED群体应该不会 对我待会要说的话感到惊讶, 我们当时见证了, 第一个领域的惊人变化, 便是... 科技。 我们开始关注清洁技术, 特别是可再生能源技术, 开始降低成本,并提高生产力, 为了我们如今已经建立起来的 集中太阳能发电厂, 能够拥有足够的能量来攻击整个城市, 而对那些我们在流动性 以及智能大厦中 的作为闭口不提。 然而,有了科技这个转变, 我们开始能够理解, 从经济均衡来看,也是个转变, 因为我们能够认识到, 一,气候变化需要巨大的成本, 二,其中也有各种风险。 但其中也有经济优势, 以及内在利益, 因为清洁技术的散播, 能够带给我们更新鲜的空气, 使我们更健康, 交通也更顺畅,更多宜居的城市, 更多能源保证, 以及会有更多能够助于世界发展的能源出现。 总而言之,会有一个 比我们现在还要棒的世界。
And with that understanding, you should have witnessed, in fact, part of you were, the spread of ingenuity and excitement that went through, first through nonnational governments, the private sector, captains of industry, insurance companies, investors, city leaders, faith communities, because they all began to understand, this actually can be in their interest. This can actually improve their bottom line.
有了这个觉悟, 你应该见证一下, 事实上,你已经参与其中, 经历了其聪明才智和兴奋的蔓延, 首当其冲的是非政府方, 私营企业,业界巨头,保险公司, 投资方,市领导人,各种信仰的社区, 因为他们都开始懂得, 这着实和他们的切身利益有关。 这确实可以提升他们的最终盈利。
And it wasn't just the usual suspects. I have to tell you I had the CEO of a major, major oil and gas company come to me at the beginning of last year and say -- privately, of course -- he did not know how he was going to change his company, but he is going to change it, because he's interested in long-term viability. Well, now we have a shift in the economic equation, and with that, with broader support from everyone, it did not take very long before we saw that national governments woke up to the fact that this is in their national interest. And when we asked countries to begin to identify how they could contribute to global efforts but based on their national interest, 189 countries out of 195, 189 countries sent their comprehensive climate change plans, based on their national interest, concurrent with their priorities, consistent with their national sustainable development plans.
而这并非是秋后算账。 我必须和你说,有个在非常大型的石油和天然气公司 任职的首席执行官, 在去年年初的时候找到我, 和我说道 -- 当然,是私底下 -- 他当时不知道该如何改变 目前的公司状况, 但是他又这个打算, 因为他看中的是公司长久的可行性。 嗯,现在,我们在经济均衡方面有了转变, 而由于这个转变,以及大家广泛的支持, 我们见证各国政府 在对自身国家利益上的觉悟, 也不会太久。 并且当我们开始让各国政府去定义, 他们改如何为全球做出贡献时, 但是是在本国利益的基础上, 195个国家中的189个国家, 189个国家都献出了 他们应对气候变化的详尽计划, 这计划是在本国利益基础上, 同时结合了他们的重点, 并与各国持久发展计划相符合。
Well, once you protect the core interests of nations, then you can understand that nations were ready to begin to converge onto a common path, onto a common direction of travel that is going to take us probably several decades, but over those several decades is going to take us into the new economy, into a decarbonized, highly resilient economy, And the national contributions that are currently on the table on behalf of national governments are insufficient to get us to a stabilized climate, but they are only the first step, and they will improve over time. And the measurement, reporting and verification of all of those efforts is legally binding. And the checkpoints that we're going to have every five years to assess collective progress towards our goal are legally binding, and the path itself toward a decarbonized and more resilient economy is legally binding.
当然, 一旦你保护了各国的核心利益, 你会了解到各国也准备好, 开始通往同一条道路, 朝向同一个方向, 这也将带给我们可能数十个年头, 或者超过数十个年头, 一番新经济的景象, 进入一个脱碳化,高度强韧经济时期, 而那时各国所做出的贡献, 也将代表各国政府,展示于人前, 虽还不足于带给我们一个稳定的气候, 但这迈出的第一步, 将随着时间的推延,得到提升。 而这些结果的衡量,汇报以及验证, 是具有法律约束力的。 而这些我们每五年都要面对的关卡, 为了达到我们目标而评估总体进展, 也是具有法律约束力的, 而这条通往脱碳化, 更加强韧经济的道路, 也是具有法律约束力的。
And here's the more important part: What did we have before? A very small handful of countries who had undertaken very reduced, short-term emission reduction commitments that were completely insufficient and furthermore, largely perceived as a burden. Now what do we have? Now we have all countries of the world contributing with different intensities from different approaches in different sectors, but all of them contributing to a common goal and along a path with environmental integrity. Well, once you have all of this in place and you have shifted this understanding, then you see that governments were able to go to Paris and adopt the Paris agreement.
还有更重要的点是: 我们之前拥有的是什么? 屈指可数的国家, 都经历了非常缩减的, 短期的减排承诺, 而这仅仅是不够的, 另外,很大程度上被视为一种负担。 那现在我们拥有的是什么? 我们现在有的是来自世界的各个国家, 用不同的方式, 在不同的区域,以不同的强度 来做出他们的贡献, 但是他们都是为了同一个目标, 怀着整体环保的心情, 朝着同一方向。 一旦所有事物都适得其所, 你会开始改变想法, 然后你会看到 各个国家都愿意前往巴黎, 对巴黎协议表示认同。
(Applause)
(鼓掌)
So, as I look back over the past six years, first I remember the day the Paris agreement was adopted. I cannot tell you the euphoria in the room. 5,000 people jumping out of their seats, crying, clapping, screaming, yelling, torn between euphoria and still disbelief at what they had just seen, because so many people had worked for years towards this, and this was finally their reality.
所以, 当我回顾一切, 回顾这过去的六年, 跳出的第一件事, 便是巴黎协议被采纳的那天。 我形容不出那时在房间里的愉悦。 5000个人都高兴的从椅子上跳了起来, 哭泣,鼓掌,尖叫,呐喊着, 欣喜之情和难以置信间的纠葛, 是他们之前刚见证到的, 因为有太多的人, 为达成这个目标而工作数年, 然而现在终于实现了。
And it wasn't just those who had participated directly. A few weeks ago, I was with a colleague who was trying to decide on a Tahitian pearl that he wanted to give to his wonderful wife Natasha. And once he had finally decided what he was going to buy, the jeweler said to him, "You know, you're very lucky that you're buying this now, because these pearls could go extinct very soon because of climate change." "But," the jeweler said, "have you heard, the governments have just come to a decision, and Tahiti could have a chance." Well, what a fantastic confirmation that perhaps, perhaps here is hope, here is a possible chance. I'm the first one to recognize that we have a lot of work still to do. We've only just started our work on climate change. And in fact, we need to make sure that we redouble our efforts over the next five years that are the urgent five years. But I do believe that we have come over the past six years from the impossible to the now unstoppable. And how did we do that? By injecting transformational optimism that allowed us to go from confrontation to collaboration, that allowed us to understand that national and local interests are not necessarily at odds with global needs, and that if we understand that, we can bring them together and we can merge them harmoniously.
而这不仅仅是直接参与的那些人。 几周前,我和一位同事, 他当时在为他美丽的妻子Natasha, 选择大溪地珍珠来作为礼物的时候。 当他终于决定要买哪个的时候, 店员和他说道, “你知道吗,你现在买下这个十分幸运, 因为这些珍珠灰因为气候变化, 很快就会不复存在。“ “但是,”店员说道,“你知道吗, 政府刚提出一个决策, 大溪地可能还有一线生机。“ 这证实太棒了, 可能,有可能便有希望, 这是个可能性。 我是第一个意识到我们还有很多事要去做。 在气候变化的问题上, 我们仅仅只是开始。 而且事实上,我们要确保能够, 在接下来十分重要的五年内, 增加我们的成效。 而且我相信, 我们所经历的这六年, 我们从不可能, 成长为如今的势不可挡。 而我们又是如何做到的呢? 通过注入具有转变意义的乐观态度, 那使得我们能够从对峙到合作, 那使得我们去理解国家以及当地的利益, 而并非是于全球需求所抗衡的, 并且如果我们理解这点, 就能够使大家团结起来, 我们可以使大家都和睦相处。
And as I look forward to other global issues that will require our attention this century -- food security, water security, home security, forced migration -- I see that we certainly do not know how we are going to solve those problems yet. But we can take a page out of what we have done on climate change and we can understand that we have got to reinterpret the zero-sum mentality. Because we were trained to believe that there always are winners and losers, and that your loss is my gain. Well, now that we're in a world in which we have reached planetary boundaries and that we are not just so interconnected, but increasingly interdependent on each other, your loss is no longer my gain. We're either all losers or we all can be winners. But we are going to have to decide between zero and sum. We're going to have to decide between zero benefit for all or living life as the sum of all of us. We've done it once. We can do it again.
当我回顾其他的全球议题时, 需要我们对这世纪的关注 -- 食品安全,水源安全, 家庭保全,强制迁移 -- 我想我们目前还不是十分清楚, 该如何解决这些问题。 但我们可以为在气候变化上做出的贡献, 画下新的篇章, 并且我们知道, 我们应该重新定义零和心态。 因为我们老是被灌输 应该去相信,凡是都有输有赢, 不是你输,就是我赢。 然而,我们共同生活在同一个世界, 一个我们都会碰到许多界限的世界, 我们并非只是相互联结, 而是越来越相互依靠, 输了的对立面,不再是赢了。 我们要么全盘皆输, 要么大获全胜。 我们需要在从无到有中, 进行选择。 我们需要在毫无利益, 还是为全人类畅享生活中作出选择。 我们已经做到过了。我们还可以再做到。
Thanks.
谢谢。
(Applause)
(掌声)