I have one more reason for optimism: climate change. Maybe you don't believe it, but here is the fact.
Imam dodatni razlog za optimizam: klimatske promene. Možda ne verujete u to, ali ovo je činjenica.
On December 12, 2015, in Paris, under the United Nations, 195 governments got together and unanimously -- if you've worked with governments, you know how difficult that is -- unanimously decided to intentionally change the course of the global economy in order to protect the most vulnerable and improve the life of all of us. Now, that is a remarkable achievement.
Tog 12. decembra 2015, u Parizu, pod okriljem Ujedinjenih nacija, sastalo se 195 vlada i jednoglasno - ako ste radili s vladama, znate koliko je to teško - jednoglasno je odlučeno da se namerno izmeni smer globalne ekonomije kako bi se zaštitili najranjiviji i unapredili životi svih nas. E sad, to je izvanredno dostignuće.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)
But it is even more remarkable if you consider where we had been just a few years ago. 2009, Copenhagen. Who remembers Copenhagen? Well, after years of working toward a climate agreement, the same governments convened in Copenhagen and failed miserably.
Ali je još neverovatnije, ako uzmete u obzir to gde smo bili pre samo nekoliko godina. Godine 2009. u Kopenhagenu. Ko se seća Kopenhagena? Pa, nakon godina rada ka postizanju dogovora o klimi, iste vlade su se sastale u Kopenhagenu i debelo su omanule.
Why did it fail miserably? For many different reasons, but primarily because of the deeply entrenched divide between the global North and the global South. So now, six months after this failure, I was called in to assume the responsibility of the global climate change negotiations. You can imagine, the perfect moment to start this new job. The global mood on climate change was in the trash can. No one believed that a global agreement could ever be possible. In fact, neither did I. If you promise not to tell anyone outside of this wonderful TED audience, I'm going to divulge a secret that has been gratefully buried by history. On my first press conference, a journalist asked, "Um, Ms. Figueres, do you think that a global agreement is ever going to be possible?" And without engaging brain, I heard me utter, "Not in my lifetime." Well, you can imagine the faces of my press team who were horrified at this crazy Costa Rican woman who was their new boss. And I was horrified, too. Now, I wasn't horrified at me, because I'm kind of used to myself. I was actually horrified at the consequences of what I had just said, at the consequences for the world in which all our children are going to have to live. It was frankly a horrible moment for me, and I thought, well, no, hang on, hang on. Impossible is not a fact, it's an attitude. It's only an attitude. And I decided right then and there that I was going to change my attitude and I was going to help the world change its attitude on climate change.
Zašto su debelo omanule? Iz raznih razloga, ali pre svega zbog duboko ukorenjenih podela između globalnog Severa i globalnog Juga. Pa sad, šest meseci nakon ovog neuspeha, pozvali su me da preuzmem odgovornost za pregovore o globalnim klimatskim promenama. Kao što pretpostavljate, bio je to savršen trenutak da se započne novi posao. Globalno raspoloženje o klimatskim promenama je bilo poražavajuće. Niko nije verovao da bi globalni dogovor ikad mogao da bude moguć. Zapravo nisam ni ja. Ako obećate da nećete reći bilo kome van ove divne TED publike, odaću vam tajnu koju je srećom istorija pokopala. Na svojoj prvoj konferenciji za štampu, novinar me je pitao: "Hm, gđo Figeres, smatrate li da će globalni sporazum uopšte biti moguć?" I bez upotrebe mozga, čula sam sebe kako izjavljujem: "Ne, dok sam živa." Pa, možete da zamislite izraze lica moje PR ekipe koji su bili užasnuti zbog ove nenormalne Kostarikinje, njihove nove šefice. I ja sam bila užasnuta. Sad, nisam bila užasnuta zbog sebe jer sam nekako navikla na sebe. Bila sam užasnuta zbog posledica onoga što sam izgovorila, zbog posledica po svet u kome će sva naša deca morati da žive. Iskreno, bio je to užasan trenutak za mene, a ja sam pomislila, pa, ne, stani malo, stani malo. Nemogućnost nije činjenica, to je stav. To je samo stav. I ja sam odlučila baš tamo i tad da ću da promenim svoj stav i da ću da pomognem svetu da promeni stav o klimatskim promenama.
So I don't know -- No, just this? Thanks. I don't know -- what you would do if you were told your job is to save the planet. Put that on the job description. And you have full responsibility, but you have absolutely no authority, because governments are sovereign in every decision that they take.
Dakle, ne znam - Ne, samo ovo? Hvala. Ne znam - šta biste vi uradili, kad bi vam rekli da vam je posao da spasite planetu. Stavite to u opis posla. Za to imate punu odgovornost, ali nemate apsolutno nikakav autoritet jer vlade imaju suverenitet u svim odlukama koje donose.
Well, I would really love to know what you would do on the first Monday morning, but here's what I did: I panicked.
Pa, zaista bih volela da znam šta biste uradili prvog ponedeljka ujutru, ali evo šta sam ja uradila: paničila sam.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
And then I panicked again, because I realized I have no idea how we're going to solve this problem. And then I realized I have no idea how we're going to solve this problem, but I do know one thing: we have got to change the tone of this conversation. Because there is no way you can deliver victory without optimism.
A potom sam još malo paničila jer sam shvatila da nemam pojma kako ćemo da rešimo ovaj problem. A onda sam shvatila da nemam pojma kako ćemo da rešimo ovaj problem, ali da znam jedno: moramo da promenimo ton razgovora o njemu. Jer nema šanse da možete da donesete pobedu bez optimizma.
And here, I use optimism as a very simple word, but let's understand it in its broader sense. Let's understand it as courage, hope, trust, solidarity, the fundamental belief that we humans can come together and can help each other to better the fate of mankind. Well, you can imagine that I thought that without that, there was no way we were going to get out of the paralysis of Copenhagen. And for six years, I have stubbornly, relentlessly injected optimism into the system, no matter what the questions from the press -- and I have gotten better at those -- and no matter what the evidence to the contrary. And believe you me, there has been a lot of contrary evidence. But relentless optimism into the system.
A ovde koristim optimizam kao veoma jednostavnu reč, ali hajde da je shvatimo u širem smislu. Hajde da je shvatimo kao hrabrost, nadu, poverenje, solidarnost, kao temeljno ubeđenje da mi ljudi možemo da se sastanemo i da pomognemo jedni drugima zarad bolje sudbine čovečanstva. Pa, pretpostavljate da sam smatrala da bez ovoga, nije bilo šanse da ćemo uspeti da se izvučemo iz kopenhagenske paralize. I tokom šest godina sam tvrdoglavo, nemilosrdno ubrizgavala optimizam u sistem, bez obzira na pitanja iz štampe - i tu sam se popravila - i bez obzira na suprotstavljene dokaze. I verujte mi, bilo je mnogo suprotstavljenih dokaza. Ali i nemilosrdnog optimizma u sistemu.
And pretty soon, we began to see changes happening in many areas, precipitated by thousands of people, including many of you here today, and I thank you. And this TED community will not be surprised if I tell you the first area in which we saw remarkable change was ... technology. We began to see that clean technologies, in particular renewable energy technologies, began to drop price and increase in capacity, to the point where today we are already building concentrated solar power plants that have the capacity to power entire cities, to say nothing of the fact of what we are doing on mobility and intelligent buildings. And with this shift in technologies, we were able to begin to understand that there was a shift in the economic equation, because we were able to recognize that yes, there are huge costs to climate change, and yes, there are compounded risks. But there also are economic advantages and intrinsic benefits, because the dissemination of the clean technologies is going to bring us cleaner air, better health, better transportation, more livable cities, more energy security, more energy access to the developing world. In sum, a better world than what we have now.
I veoma brzo smo počeli da vidimo promene kako se dešavaju u mnogim oblastima, njih su ubrzavale hiljade ljudi, uključujući i mnoge od vas koji ste ovde danas i hvala vam za to. A TED zajednica neće biti iznenađena, ako vam kažem da je prva oblast u kojoj smo videli izvanredne promene bila... tehnologija. Počeli smo da uviđamo da je čistoj tehnologiji, naročito tehnologiji obnovljive energije, počela da pada cena, a da raste kapacitet do tačke u kojoj danas već gradimo koncentrisane fabrike solarne energije koje imaju kapacitet da opskrbljavaju čitave gradove, a da ne pričamo o činjenici šta sve postižemo u mobilnosti i pametnim građevinama. A ovim zaokretom u tehnologiji, mogli smo početi da razumevamo da se desio zaokret u ekonomskoj jednačini jer smo bili u stanju da prepoznamo da, da, klimatske promene donose ogroman trošak i, da, u to je uključen i rizik. No takođe imamo i ekonomske prednosti i suštinske dobiti jer će širenje čiste tehnologije da nam donese čistiji vazduh, bolje zdravlje, bolji prevoz, gradove podesnije za život, više energetske sigurnosti, više pristupa energiji u svetu u razvoju. Da sumiram, bolji svet od onog koji imamo danas.
And with that understanding, you should have witnessed, in fact, part of you were, the spread of ingenuity and excitement that went through, first through nonnational governments, the private sector, captains of industry, insurance companies, investors, city leaders, faith communities, because they all began to understand, this actually can be in their interest. This can actually improve their bottom line.
A s tim razumevanjem, trebalo bi da ste bili svedoci, zapravo, deo vas i jeste, širenju originalnosti i uzbuđenja koji su se širili, prvo preko nenacionalnih vlada, privatnog sektora, industrijskih magnata, osiguravajućih firmi, investitora, vođa gradova, religijskih zajednica jer su svi oni počeli da uviđaju da bi ovo zapravo moglo da bude u njihovom interesu. Ovo bi moglo zapravo da unapredi njihovu osnovnu dobit.
And it wasn't just the usual suspects. I have to tell you I had the CEO of a major, major oil and gas company come to me at the beginning of last year and say -- privately, of course -- he did not know how he was going to change his company, but he is going to change it, because he's interested in long-term viability. Well, now we have a shift in the economic equation, and with that, with broader support from everyone, it did not take very long before we saw that national governments woke up to the fact that this is in their national interest. And when we asked countries to begin to identify how they could contribute to global efforts but based on their national interest, 189 countries out of 195, 189 countries sent their comprehensive climate change plans, based on their national interest, concurrent with their priorities, consistent with their national sustainable development plans.
A to nisu bili dežurni krivci. Moram da kažem da mi je izvršni direktor velike, velike naftne i gasne firme prišao početkom prošle godine i rekao - u tajnosti, naravno - kako ne zna na koji način će da izmeni svoju firmu, ali će da je izmeni jer ga interesuje dugoročna održivost. Dakle, sad imamo preokret u ekonomskoj jednačini i s tim, s većom podrškom svih, nije trebalo dugo da vidimo da nacionalne vlade postaju svesne da je ovo njihov nacionalni interes. A kad smo zatražili od zemalja da počnu sa izjašnjavanjem kako bi mogle da doprinesu globalnim naporima, ali na osnovu svog nacionalnog interesa, 189 zemalja od 195, 189 zemalja je poslalo obimne planove o klimatskim promenama, zasnovane na svojim nacionalnim interesima, saglasne s njihovim prioritetima, u skladu s njihovim nacionalnim planovima za održivi razvoj.
Well, once you protect the core interests of nations, then you can understand that nations were ready to begin to converge onto a common path, onto a common direction of travel that is going to take us probably several decades, but over those several decades is going to take us into the new economy, into a decarbonized, highly resilient economy, And the national contributions that are currently on the table on behalf of national governments are insufficient to get us to a stabilized climate, but they are only the first step, and they will improve over time. And the measurement, reporting and verification of all of those efforts is legally binding. And the checkpoints that we're going to have every five years to assess collective progress towards our goal are legally binding, and the path itself toward a decarbonized and more resilient economy is legally binding.
Pa, čim zaštitite ključne nacionalne interese, onda možete da razumete da su nacije spremne da počnu da teže zajedničkoj stazi, zajedničkom smeru putovanja koje će da traje verovatno nekoliko decenija, ali tokom tih nekoliko decenija će da nas dovede do nove ekonomije, do ekonomije bez ugljenika i krajnje otporne ekonomije. A nacionalni doprinosi koji su trenutno u igri od strane nacionalnih vlada nisu dovoljni da nas dovedu do stabilne klime, ali to su tek prvi koraci i vremenom će da se poprave. A merenje, izveštavanje i potvrda ovih napora su zakonski obavezujući. A kontrole koje ćemo da izvodimo svakih pet godina, kako bi se bavili kolektivnim napretkom u postizanju cilja, su zakonski obavezujuće; sami put ka postizanju otporne ekonomije bez ugljenika je zakonski obavezujući.
And here's the more important part: What did we have before? A very small handful of countries who had undertaken very reduced, short-term emission reduction commitments that were completely insufficient and furthermore, largely perceived as a burden. Now what do we have? Now we have all countries of the world contributing with different intensities from different approaches in different sectors, but all of them contributing to a common goal and along a path with environmental integrity. Well, once you have all of this in place and you have shifted this understanding, then you see that governments were able to go to Paris and adopt the Paris agreement.
A ovo je važniji deo: šta smo imali pre ovoga? Šačicu zemalja koje su preduzele veoma svedene, kratkoročne obaveze za umanjenje efekta staklene bašte koje su bile potpuno nedovoljne, štaviše, uglavnom su doživljavane kao teret. Šta imamo sad? Sad sve zemlje na svetu doprinose različitim intenzitetom, različitim pristupima u različitim sektorima, ali sve one doprinose zajedničkom cilju idući stazom na kojoj je okolina integritet. Pa, čim sve dođe na svoje mesto, i kad izmenite razumevanje ovoga, onda vidite da su vlade bile u stanju da odu u Pariz i da usvoje Pariski dogovor.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)
So, as I look back over the past six years, first I remember the day the Paris agreement was adopted. I cannot tell you the euphoria in the room. 5,000 people jumping out of their seats, crying, clapping, screaming, yelling, torn between euphoria and still disbelief at what they had just seen, because so many people had worked for years towards this, and this was finally their reality.
Pa, kad se osvrnem na prethodnih šest godina, prvo se setim dana kad je Pariski dogovor usvojen. Ne mogu da vam opišem euforiju u prostoriji. Pet hiljada ljudi kako skače iz stolica, plače, aplaudira, dovikuje, viče, rastrgnuti između euforije i neverice zbog onoga što su upravo posvedočili jer toliko ljudi je godinama radilo zbog ovoga i ovo se konačno realizovalo.
And it wasn't just those who had participated directly. A few weeks ago, I was with a colleague who was trying to decide on a Tahitian pearl that he wanted to give to his wonderful wife Natasha. And once he had finally decided what he was going to buy, the jeweler said to him, "You know, you're very lucky that you're buying this now, because these pearls could go extinct very soon because of climate change." "But," the jeweler said, "have you heard, the governments have just come to a decision, and Tahiti could have a chance." Well, what a fantastic confirmation that perhaps, perhaps here is hope, here is a possible chance. I'm the first one to recognize that we have a lot of work still to do. We've only just started our work on climate change. And in fact, we need to make sure that we redouble our efforts over the next five years that are the urgent five years. But I do believe that we have come over the past six years from the impossible to the now unstoppable. And how did we do that? By injecting transformational optimism that allowed us to go from confrontation to collaboration, that allowed us to understand that national and local interests are not necessarily at odds with global needs, and that if we understand that, we can bring them together and we can merge them harmoniously.
A nije se samo radilo o onima koji su direktno učestvovali. Pre nekoliko nedelja, sastala sam se s kolegom koji je pokušavao da izabere tahićanski biser koji je želeo da pokloni svojoj divnoj supruzi Nataši. I kad je konačno odlučio šta želi da kupi, juvelir mu je rekao: "Znate koliko imate sreće što ovo trenutno kupujete jer bi ovi biseri mogli da nestanu veoma brzo zbog klimatskih promena." "Međutim", rekao je juvelir, "jeste li čuli da su vlade upravo postigle dogovor i možda ima nade za Tahiti." Kakva fantastična potvrda da možda, možda ima nade da je tu moguća šansa. Ja prva prepoznajem da nam je preostalo još mnogo rada. Tek smo započeli rad na klimatskim promenama. I zapravo, moramo da se postaramo da udvostručimo napore u narednih pet godina, koje su gorućih pet godina. Međutim, verujem da smo u proteklih šest godina prešli put od nemogućeg do trenutno nezaustavljivog. A kako smo to postigli? Ubrizgavanjem preobražavajućeg optimizma koji nam je omogućio da pređemo put od sukoba do saradnje, koji nam je omogućio da razumemo da nacionalni i lokalni interesi nisu nužno nespojivi s globalnim potrebama i da ako razumemo to, možemo da ih spojimo i možemo da ih harmonično stopimo.
And as I look forward to other global issues that will require our attention this century -- food security, water security, home security, forced migration -- I see that we certainly do not know how we are going to solve those problems yet. But we can take a page out of what we have done on climate change and we can understand that we have got to reinterpret the zero-sum mentality. Because we were trained to believe that there always are winners and losers, and that your loss is my gain. Well, now that we're in a world in which we have reached planetary boundaries and that we are not just so interconnected, but increasingly interdependent on each other, your loss is no longer my gain. We're either all losers or we all can be winners. But we are going to have to decide between zero and sum. We're going to have to decide between zero benefit for all or living life as the sum of all of us. We've done it once. We can do it again.
I kako se radujem drugim globalnim pitanjima koja će zahtevati našu pažnju u ovom veku - obezbeđenje hrane, obezbeđenje vode, obezbeđivanje domova, prinudne migracije - vidim da zasigurno još uvek ne znamo kako ćemo da rešimo te probleme. Ali možemo da iskoristimo znanje o dostignućima kod klimatskih promena i možemo da razumemo da moramo da preobrazimo gubitnički mentalitet. Jer smo obučeni da verujemo da uvek postoje pobednici i gubitnici, i da je vaš gubitak, moja dobit. Dakle, sad kad smo u svetu u kom smo dosegli planetarna ograničenja i u kom nismo prosto međusobno povezani, već sve više zavisimo jedni od drugih, vaš gubitak nije više moja dobit. Svi smo gubitnici ili svi možemo da budemo pobednici. Ali moraćemo da odlučimo između ništa i svega. Moraćemo da odlučimo između nikakve dobiti za bilo koga ili da živimo život koji nosi dobrobit za svakog od nas. Jednom smo to uradili. Možemo ponovo.
Thanks.
Hvala.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)