So, how many of you have ever gotten behind the wheel of a car when you really shouldn't have been driving? Maybe you're out on the road for a long day, and you just wanted to get home. You were tired, but you felt you could drive a few more miles. Maybe you thought, I've had less to drink than everybody else, I should be the one to go home. Or maybe your mind was just entirely elsewhere.
在你們當中有多少人曾經 在你根本不應該駕駛的狀況下 坐在駕駛者的位上呢? 也許你曾經一天開車很久了 當下你只想回家 你非常累,但是你覺得你還可以再開幾哩路 當下你也許在想, 我喝的酒比其他人都還少 應是我開車回家吧 又或者你的注意力完全不在開車這件事上了
Does this sound familiar to you? Now, in those situations, wouldn't it be great if there was a button on your dashboard that you could push, and the car would get you home safely? Now, that's been the promise of the self-driving car, the autonomous vehicle, and it's been the dream since at least 1939, when General Motors showcased this idea at their Futurama booth at the World's Fair.
這些想法聽起來很熟悉吧? 現在,在剛剛所說的那些狀況下, 你應該會感到以下的新發明很吸引吧... 如果有一個按鈕在你的儀表板上,按一按 車子會自動地把你安全地送回家 這是自動導航汽車的承諾 一輛自主的汽車,這是從一九三九年 由通用汽車公司 在世界博覽會“飛出個未來"攤位中展示他們的想法開始後,很多人對汽車的寄望
Now, it's been one of those dreams that's always seemed about 20 years in the future. Now, two weeks ago, that dream took a step forward, when the state of Nevada granted Google's self-driving car the very first license for an autonomous vehicle, clearly establishing that it's legal for them to test it on the roads in Nevada. Now, California's considering similar legislation, and this would make sure that the autonomous car is not one of those things that has to stay in Vegas.
現在, 這些夢想 好像永遠要在二十年後才有希望實現 現在, 就在兩星期前, 這個夢想向前邁進了一步 當美國內華達州對 Google (谷歌) 的自動導航汽車發出 首張針對自動汽車的行車證 明確確立法洌上容許這輛車 可以在內華達州的道路上進行測試 最近, 加州正考慮仿效類似的立法工作 這樣一來, 他們就可以確保那輛自動汽車 不會只在內華達州出現
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
Now, in my lab at Stanford, we've been working on autonomous cars too, but with a slightly different spin on things. You see, we've been developing robotic race cars, cars that can actually push themselves to the very limits of physical performance.
在我的史丹福大學實驗室裏, 我們也在著手研究 自動汽車, 但是從一個稍為不同的角度 去看這件事。你看, 我們正在研發機動賽車 它們可以把自己的物理表現 推至極限
Now, why would we want to do such a thing? Well, there's two really good reasons for this. First, we believe that before people turn over control to an autonomous car, that autonomous car should be at least as good as the very best human drivers. Now, if you're like me, and the other 70 percent of the population who know that we are above-average drivers, you understand that's a very high bar. There's another reason as well. Just like race car drivers can use all of the friction between the tire and the road, all of the car's capabilities to go as fast as possible, we want to use all of those capabilities to avoid any accident we can.
為甚麼我們會想做這件事呢? 嗯, 這裏有兩個非常好的原因 第一, 我們相信, 在人類把控制權 交給自動汽車之前, 那自動汽車的表現至少要 能夠與最好的人類駕駛者匹敵 如果你跟我一樣, 跟百分之七十的人口一樣 都知道我們比一般駕駛者優勝 你會明白這對於自動汽車來說是很高的門檻 還有另一個原因 就像賽車手能夠充份運用 輪胎與路面之間的摩擦力 加上充份運用車子的性能去達致最高速 我們想運用那些性質 去減少任何意外的發生
Now, you may push the car to the limits not because you're driving too fast, but because you've hit an icy patch of road, conditions have changed. In those situations, we want a car that is capable enough to avoid any accident that can physically be avoided.
有時你使車子超過所能承受的極限 未必因為你把車子開得太快 而是因為你碰到地上的冰塊 以致於狀況有所改變。 在那些情況, 我們想要有 只要是物理上能被避免的 就能購避免任何意外發生的一輛車。
I must confess, there's kind of a third motivation as well. You see, I have a passion for racing. In the past, I've been a race car owner, a crew chief and a driving coach, although maybe not at the level that you're currently expecting. One of the things that we've developed in the lab -- we've developed several vehicles -- is what we believe is the world's first autonomously drifting car. It's another one of those categories where maybe there's not a lot of competition.
我必須承認, 我們有第三個動機 你看, 我有一股對賽車的熱誠 以前, 我曾經是一輛賽車車主 一個車隊的領隊及駕駛教練 雖然不是你們想像中的那個層次 我們在實驗室裏研發的其中一個項目-- 我們研發過幾款汽車-- 是我們認為是世界上第一輛 會飄移的自動汽車 這是一個比較少 競爭對手的研究範疇
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
But this is P1. It's an entirely student-built electric vehicle, which through using its rear-wheel drive and front-wheel steer-by-wire can drift around corners. It can get sideways like a rally car driver, always able to take the tightest curve, even on slippery, changing surfaces, never spinning out.
這是 P1。一個完全由學生建立的電動汽車 它用它的尾輪 以及電子操控的前輪 可以在車道的彎位飄移 它可以像拉力賽中的賽車手高速轉向 永遠能夠在最窄的角度行走 即使賽道濕滑、路面情況轉變 它都不會滑出賽道
We've also worked with Volkswagen Oracle, on Shelley, an autonomous race car that has raced at 150 miles an hour through the Bonneville Salt Flats, gone around Thunderhill Raceway Park in the sun, the wind and the rain, and navigated the 153 turns and 12.4 miles of the Pikes Peak Hill Climb route in Colorado with nobody at the wheel.
我們也跟福特汽車合作 用它的Shelley 型號汽車, 一款自動賽車 以時速150 英里穿越美國猶他州邦納維爾大鹽湖附近的平原 在太陽底下橫過 Thunderhill 賽車場 也在大風和雨中行走過該處 以導航系統引領汽車在科羅拉多州的 Pikes Peak Hill Climb 賽道上 轉153 個圈及走12.4 英里 汽車是無人駕駛的
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
(Applause)
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I guess it goes without saying that we've had a lot of fun doing this. But in fact, there's something else that we've developed in the process of developing these autonomous cars. We have developed a tremendous appreciation for the capabilities of human race car drivers. As we've looked at the question of how well do these cars perform, we wanted to compare them to our human counterparts. And we discovered their human counterparts are amazing. Now, we can take a map of a race track, we can take a mathematical model of a car, and with some iteration, we can actually find the fastest way around that track. We line that up with data that we record from a professional driver, and the resemblance is absolutely remarkable.
我毋須多說,這些經歷為我們 帶來無窮的樂趣 但實際上,我們在研發了 這些自動汽車的過程中,體驗到一些事情 我們培養出一種對人類賽車手 的能力的高度欣賞 當我們看到這些自動汽車的表現時 我們想將它們與人類賽車手作比較 我們發現人類賽車手的表現是多麼令人讚歎的 如果我們拿到賽道的地圖 我們可以為自動汽車製作一個數學模型 經過幾個回合的修定,我們的確可以找到 穿越賽道的最快路徑 我們將這些記錄得來的數據 與專業的賽車手比較 結果兩者的吻合實在值得靈人注意
Yes, there are subtle differences here, but the human race car driver is able to go out and drive an amazingly fast line, without the benefit of an algorithm that compares the trade-off between going as fast as possible in this corner, and shaving a little bit of time off of the straight over here. Not only that, they're able to do it lap after lap after lap. They're able to go out and consistently do this, pushing the car to the limits every single time. It's extraordinary to watch. You put them in a new car, and after a few laps, they've found the fastest line in that car, and they're off to the races.
是的,兩者有少許的差異 但人類賽車手能夠出賽 然後奇妙的高速行駛 卻毋須任何演算法去計算 車子以最高速轉向 以及不在直路上行走所損失的時間 兩者之間的取捨 不單如此,他們能夠在一在一圈 又一圈... 又一圈後做出同樣的決定 他們在賽道上的表現非常穩定 每一次都把車子的性能發揮到極限 這的確令人歎為觀止 你把他們放到一輛新車裏 跑幾個圈以後,他們就能夠為那新車找出最快的線道 然後他們就準備好去比賽
It really makes you think, we'd love to know what's going on inside their brain. So as researchers, that's what we decided to find out. We decided to instrument not only the car, but also the race car driver, to try to get a glimpse into what was going on in their head as they were doing this. Now, this is Dr. Lene Harbott applying electrodes to the head of John Morton. John Morton is a former Can-Am and IMSA driver, who's also a class champion at Le Mans. Fantastic driver, and very willing to put up with graduate students and this sort of research. She's putting electrodes on his head so that we can monitor the electrical activity in John's brain as he races around the track.
你真的會覺得 我們是多麼渴望知道他們的腦袋是如何運作的 作為研究人員,這是我們決定追尋的問題 我們不但決定裝備那輛車子 還要裝備那個駕駛者 去嘗試了解,在他們做出這些行為的時候 他們的腦袋會產生怎麼的變化 蘭尼•哈博 (Dr. Lene Harbott) 博士把電極 附在約翰•摩頓 (John Morton) 的頭上 約翰•摩頓是加拿大-美國挑戰盃及國際賽車運動協會賽事的車手 亦是利曼24小时耐力赛的分組冠軍 這個優異的車手,而且非常願意和研究生合作 及參與這類研究 她正在把電極放到他的頭上 使我們能在約翰在賽道上飛馳的時候 監察他的大腦活動
Now, clearly we're not going to put a couple of electrodes on his head and understand exactly what all of his thoughts are on the track. However, neuroscientists have identified certain patterns that let us tease out some very important aspects of this. For instance, the resting brain tends to generate a lot of alpha waves. In contrast, theta waves are associated with a lot of cognitive activity, like visual processing, things where the driver is thinking quite a bit. Now, we can measure this, and we can look at the relative power between the theta waves and the alpha waves. This gives us a measure of mental workload, how much the driver is actually challenged cognitively at any point along the track.
明顯地,我們不能以這幾支附在他頭上的電極 完全了解他在賽道的時候的思想 但是,神經系統科學家已經認定了幾個不同的規律 為我們提供了幾個非常重要的線索 例如,大腦靜止的時候 傾向產生很多 alpha 波段 相對地,theta 波段與 很多認知活動有關,例如視覺訊息處理 這些都是駕駛者們經常想著的東西 現在,我們可以量度這些波段 以及我們可以看看 theta 波段與alpha 波段的相對強弱 這會為我們提供一個大腦活動量的估算 看看駕駛者的大腦認知能力 受到多大的挑戰
Now, we wanted to see if we could actually record this on the track, so we headed down south to Laguna Seca. Laguna Seca is a legendary raceway about halfway between Salinas and Monterey. It has a curve there called the Corkscrew. Now, the Corkscrew is a chicane, followed by a quick right-handed turn as the road drops three stories. Now, the strategy for driving this as explained to me was, you aim for the bush in the distance, and as the road falls away, you realize it was actually the top of a tree.
我們想看看我們能否在賽道上記錄這些數據 因此我們南下到加州的 Laguna Seca 賽車場 Laguna Seca 是一個傳奇的賽道 它在 Salinas 和 Monterey 兩個縣之間 它有一條彎彎的賽道叫做 "開瓶器" "開瓶器" 有幾個之字形的急彎 接著來一個急速的右轉,同時下墜約三層樓的高度 有人告訴我處理這部分賽道的竅門 你要望著遠處的矮樹 當賽道下降的時候,你會發現那矮樹其實是一棵大樹的頂部
All right, so thanks to the Revs Program at Stanford, we were able to take John there and put him behind the wheel of a 1960 Porsche Abarth Carrera. Life is way too short for boring cars. So, here you see John on the track, he's going up the hill -- Oh! Somebody liked that -- and you can see, actually, his mental workload -- measuring here in the red bar -- you can see his actions as he approaches. Now watch, he has to downshift. And then he has to turn left. Look for the tree, and down.
好了,因為史丹福大學 Revs 計劃的資助 我們可以帶約翰到那裏 把他放到一輛1960年生產的 保時捷Abarth Carrera型號賽車的駕駛員座位上 對於開無聊賽車,生命是如此短促! 你可以看到約翰在賽道上 他正爬上那山丘-- 噢! 有人就是喜歡這樣-- 你可以看到他的腦活動量 -- 紅色那條軸 -- 你可以看到他上山時的動作 現在又看! 他正下坡 接著他作了一個左轉 看看那樹,再向下看
Not surprisingly, you can see this is a pretty challenging task. You can see his mental workload spike as he goes through this, as you would expect with something that requires this level of complexity. But what's really interesting is to look at areas of the track where his mental workload doesn't increase. I'm going to take you around now to the other side of the track. Turn three. And John's going to go into that corner and the rear end of the car is going to begin to slide out. He's going to have to correct for that with steering. So watch as John does this here. Watch the mental workload, and watch the steering. The car begins to slide out, dramatic maneuver to correct it, and no change whatsoever in the mental workload. Not a challenging task. In fact, entirely reflexive.
可以預料的,你知道這是一個很具挑戰性的任務 你可以看到他跨越這裏的時候,腦活動量急劇增加 對於一個這樣複雜的任務 我們覺得是合理的 但有趣的地方是,你可以看到賽道上的某幾點 在這些地方約翰的腦活動量沒有增加 我會帶你往賽道 的另一端看看 第三個彎: 約翰正準備穿越這個轉角 賽車的尾輪開始滑行 他要著手以方向盤改正這個情況 看看約翰怎樣做吧 看看他的腦活動量,再看看那方向盤 車子開始滑行,他以戲劇性的操作去改正它 但腦活動量並沒有改變 這並非一個具挑戰性的任務 實際上,這完全是個本能反應
Now, our data processing on this is still preliminary, but it really seems that these phenomenal feats that the race car drivers are performing are instinctive. They are things that they have simply learned to do. It requires very little mental workload for them to perform these amazing feats. And their actions are fantastic. This is exactly what you want to do on the steering wheel to catch the car in this situation.
我們在這個情況所得的數據還在最初的階段 但它好像說明了這些驚人的技藝背後 賽車手的反應 是出於本能的 這些動作都是他們學習的成果 對於他們要做出這些技藝 這些動作對腦活動量的要求並不高 他們的動作實在令人難以置信 這些都是每個人希望 可以在這些情況下操作汽車的典範
Now, this has given us tremendous insight and inspiration for our own autonomous vehicles. We've started to ask the question: Can we make them a little less algorithmic and a little more intuitive? Can we take this reflexive action that we see from the very best race car drivers, introduce it to our cars, and maybe even into a system that could get onto your car in the future? That would take us a long step along the road to autonomous vehicles that drive as well as the best humans.
這為我們提供了寶貴的參考價值 同時亦為我們自己的自動汽車提供相當多的啟發 我們開始問一個問題 我們能夠將自動汽車發展成較少依賴演算法 同時較多依賴直覺的機器嗎? 我們可以把這樣的本能反應 這些我們可以在世界頂級賽車手的身上看到的本能反應 結合到我們的汽車上 又或者結合到一個系統 在將來會放在你的汽車上的系統嗎? 要將這樣的系統放到汽車上 還需要長時間完成的奮鬥 這個系統將可以與世上最好的車手比擬
But it's made us think a little bit more deeply as well. Do we want something more from our car than to simply be a chauffeur? Do we want our car to perhaps be a partner, a coach, someone that can use their understanding of the situation to help us reach our potential? Can, in fact, the technology not simply replace humans, but allow us to reach the level of reflex and intuition that we're all capable of?
但這亦引發出另一個比較深層次的問題 我們究竟想要一輛能做更多事情的汽車 抑或只是一個司機呢? 我們是否想汽車變成我們的伙伴、良師 一個會用它們對環境的理解 幫助我們發揮潛能的系統呢? 究竟,科技是否可以不單單取代人類 而是誘發我們能力所及的 本能反應及直覺呢?
So, as we move forward into this technological future, I want you to just pause and think of that for a moment. What is the ideal balance of human and machine? And as we think about that, let's take inspiration from the absolutely amazing capabilities of the human body and the human mind.
因此,當我們在科技進步的同時 我希望你停一停,思考這個問題 甚麼是人類和機器最理想的平衡呢? 當我們思考這個問題的時候 就讓我們感受一下 人類身體及腦袋 對我們的啟發吧!
Thank you.
謝謝大家
(Applause)
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