So, how many of you have ever gotten behind the wheel of a car when you really shouldn't have been driving? Maybe you're out on the road for a long day, and you just wanted to get home. You were tired, but you felt you could drive a few more miles. Maybe you thought, I've had less to drink than everybody else, I should be the one to go home. Or maybe your mind was just entirely elsewhere.
Dakle, koliko vas je nekada selo za volan, a da ste znali da zapravo ne biste smeli? Možda ste bili na putu ceo dan, i samo ste hteli da što pre stignete kući. Bili ste umorni, ali ste mislili da ipak možete da vozite još par kilometara. Možda ste pomislili, popio sam najmanje od svih, pa bi ja trebalo da vozim kući. Ili možda su vam misli bile na potpuno drugom mestu.
Does this sound familiar to you? Now, in those situations, wouldn't it be great if there was a button on your dashboard that you could push, and the car would get you home safely? Now, that's been the promise of the self-driving car, the autonomous vehicle, and it's been the dream since at least 1939, when General Motors showcased this idea at their Futurama booth at the World's Fair.
Da li vam to zvuči poznato? Zar ne bi bilo super kada bi u tim situacijama postojalo dugme na vašoj kontrol-tabli koje biste mogli da pritisnete, i auto bi vas sam dovezao kući sigurno? To je bilo obećanje automobila koji samostalno vozi, samostalnog vozila, i to je bio san još od 1939. godine, kada je Dženeral Motors prikazao ovu ideju na svom Futurama štandu na Svetskom sajmu.
Now, it's been one of those dreams that's always seemed about 20 years in the future. Now, two weeks ago, that dream took a step forward, when the state of Nevada granted Google's self-driving car the very first license for an autonomous vehicle, clearly establishing that it's legal for them to test it on the roads in Nevada. Now, California's considering similar legislation, and this would make sure that the autonomous car is not one of those things that has to stay in Vegas.
Dakle, to je bio jedan od onih snova za koje se smatralo da će se ostvariti kroz 20 godina u budućnosti. Međutim, pre dve nedelje, taj san je otišao korak napred, kada je savezna država Nevada odobrila Guglovom automobilu prvu dozvolu za samostalno vozilo i time je jasno poručila da mogu legalno da ga testiraju na području Nevade. Kalifornija razmatra slične propise, i tako bi osigurali da samostalan automobil nije jedna od onih stvari koje moraju da ostanu u Vegasu.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
Now, in my lab at Stanford, we've been working on autonomous cars too, but with a slightly different spin on things. You see, we've been developing robotic race cars, cars that can actually push themselves to the very limits of physical performance.
U mojoj laboratoriji na Stenfordu, takođe radimo na samostalnim automobilima, ali na malo drugačiji način. Dakle, mi razvijamo robotske trkačke automobile, automobile koji zaista mogu da se guraju do samih granica fizičkih performansi.
Now, why would we want to do such a thing? Well, there's two really good reasons for this. First, we believe that before people turn over control to an autonomous car, that autonomous car should be at least as good as the very best human drivers. Now, if you're like me, and the other 70 percent of the population who know that we are above-average drivers, you understand that's a very high bar. There's another reason as well. Just like race car drivers can use all of the friction between the tire and the road, all of the car's capabilities to go as fast as possible, we want to use all of those capabilities to avoid any accident we can.
Zašto bismo hteli da uradimo tako nešto? Pa, postoje dva jako dobra razloga zašto. Prvo, verujemo da pre nego što ljudi predaju kontrolu samostalnom automobilu, samostalan automobil mora da bude dobar bar kao što su najbolji ljudski vozači. Ako ste poput mene, i poput ostalih 70% populacije koji sebe smatraju natprosečnim vozačima, onda razumete da je to veoma visok cilj. Postoji takođe još jedan razlog. Baš kao što vozači trkačkih automobila mogu da koriste svo trenje između gume i puta, sve mogućnosti automobila kako bi mogli da razviju veliku brzinu, mi hoćemo da iskoristimo sve te mogućnosti da bi izbegli sve moguće nesreće.
Now, you may push the car to the limits not because you're driving too fast, but because you've hit an icy patch of road, conditions have changed. In those situations, we want a car that is capable enough to avoid any accident that can physically be avoided.
Vi možda možete da napregnete auto do samih granica ne zato što vozite prebrzo, već zato što ste naišli na zaleđeni deo puta, i uslovi su se promenili. U takvim situacijama, mi hoćemo da imamo auto koji je dovoljno sposoban da izbegne bilo kakvu nesreću koja može zaista fizički da se izbegne.
I must confess, there's kind of a third motivation as well. You see, I have a passion for racing. In the past, I've been a race car owner, a crew chief and a driving coach, although maybe not at the level that you're currently expecting. One of the things that we've developed in the lab -- we've developed several vehicles -- is what we believe is the world's first autonomously drifting car. It's another one of those categories where maybe there's not a lot of competition.
Moram vam priznati da tu postoji i treći razlog. Vidite, ja volim trke. Nekada sam imao trkački auto, bio sam šef trkačkog tima, i instruktor vožnje, mada nisam bio na nivou na kom pretpostavljate da sam bio. Jedna od stvari koje smo razvili u laboratoriji - a razvili smo nekoliko vozila - je ono za šta smatramo da je prvi svetski samostalan auto za driftovanje. To je još jedna od onih kategorija gde i nema možda toliko konkurencije.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
But this is P1. It's an entirely student-built electric vehicle, which through using its rear-wheel drive and front-wheel steer-by-wire can drift around corners. It can get sideways like a rally car driver, always able to take the tightest curve, even on slippery, changing surfaces, never spinning out.
Ali ovo je P1. Studenti su napravili električno vozilo koje uz pomoć pogona na zadnjim točkovima i prednjom vučom preko žica može da driftuje po krivinama. Može da se zanosi sa strane na stranu poput reli vozača, koji uvek može da prođe najoštrijom krivinom, čak i na klizavim, promenljivim površinama, a da se pri tom nikada ne izmakne kontroli.
We've also worked with Volkswagen Oracle, on Shelley, an autonomous race car that has raced at 150 miles an hour through the Bonneville Salt Flats, gone around Thunderhill Raceway Park in the sun, the wind and the rain, and navigated the 153 turns and 12.4 miles of the Pikes Peak Hill Climb route in Colorado with nobody at the wheel.
Takođe smo radili sa Folksvagen Oraklom, na Šeliju, samostalnom trkačkom automobilu koji je jurio 241 km/h kroz Bonvil Solt Flets, vozio u Tanderhil trkačkom parku po lepom vremenu, po vetru i kiši, i uspešno je prošao sve 153 krivine na 20km dugačkom usponu Pajks Pik Hil puta u Koloradu bez ikoga za volanom.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
(Applause)
(Aplauz)
I guess it goes without saying that we've had a lot of fun doing this. But in fact, there's something else that we've developed in the process of developing these autonomous cars. We have developed a tremendous appreciation for the capabilities of human race car drivers. As we've looked at the question of how well do these cars perform, we wanted to compare them to our human counterparts. And we discovered their human counterparts are amazing. Now, we can take a map of a race track, we can take a mathematical model of a car, and with some iteration, we can actually find the fastest way around that track. We line that up with data that we record from a professional driver, and the resemblance is absolutely remarkable.
Mislim da nema potrebe da vam kažem da smo se super zabavili radeći na ovom projektu. Ali, zapravo postoji još nešto što smo razvili tokom razvijanja ovih samostalnih automobila. Shvatili smo i osetili neverovatno poštovanje prema sposobnostima koje imaju vozači trkačkih automobila. Dok smo istraživali koliko su dobre performanse ovih automobila, hteli smo da ih uporedimo sa ljudskim vozačima. I otkrili smo da su njihove ljudske "kolege" neverovatne. Možemo uzeti mapu trkačke staze, možemo uzeti matematički model automobila i uz malo vežbe, možemo da nađemo najbrži put oko te stazi. Uporedili smo te podatke sa podacima koje smo snimili sa profesionalnim vozačem, i podudarnost je apsolutno neverovatna.
Yes, there are subtle differences here, but the human race car driver is able to go out and drive an amazingly fast line, without the benefit of an algorithm that compares the trade-off between going as fast as possible in this corner, and shaving a little bit of time off of the straight over here. Not only that, they're able to do it lap after lap after lap. They're able to go out and consistently do this, pushing the car to the limits every single time. It's extraordinary to watch. You put them in a new car, and after a few laps, they've found the fastest line in that car, and they're off to the races.
Da, tu postoje male razlike, u nijansama, ali ljudski vozač trka može da izađe na stazu i da vozi neverovatno brzom putanjom, bez pomoći algoritma koji upoređuje balans između jurenja najvećom brzinom u ovoj krivini, i skidanja malo vremena na ovoj pravoj putanji ovde. Ne samo to, već mogu i da voze taj krug krug za krugom. Oni su u stanju da izađu na stazu i da to neprestano rade, gurajući auto do samih granica baš svaki put. To je neverovatno za gledanje. Stavite ih u neki nov auto, i nakon samo par krugova, oni će pronaći najbržu putanju za taj auto i onda mogu da se trkaju.
It really makes you think, we'd love to know what's going on inside their brain. So as researchers, that's what we decided to find out. We decided to instrument not only the car, but also the race car driver, to try to get a glimpse into what was going on in their head as they were doing this. Now, this is Dr. Lene Harbott applying electrodes to the head of John Morton. John Morton is a former Can-Am and IMSA driver, who's also a class champion at Le Mans. Fantastic driver, and very willing to put up with graduate students and this sort of research. She's putting electrodes on his head so that we can monitor the electrical activity in John's brain as he races around the track.
To vas zaista natera da pomislite, voleli bismo da znamo šta se dešava u njihovoj glavi. Stoga smo, obzirom da smo istraživači, dlučili da to i saznamo. Odlučili smo da pratimo ne samo auto, već i vozača trkačkih automobila, kako bismo dobili uvid u to šta se zapravo dešava u njihovoj glavi dok voze. Ovo je slika dr Line Harbot kako stavlja elektrode na glavu Džona Mortona. Džon Morton je bivši vozač Can-Am i IMSA trka, koji je takođe prvak u svojoj kategoriji na Le Manu. Odličan vozač i veoma strpljiv sa studentima i ovakvom vrstom istraživanja. Ona stavlja elektrode na njegovu glavu kako bismo mogli da pratimo električne aktivnosti u Džonovom mozgu dok se trka na stazi.
Now, clearly we're not going to put a couple of electrodes on his head and understand exactly what all of his thoughts are on the track. However, neuroscientists have identified certain patterns that let us tease out some very important aspects of this. For instance, the resting brain tends to generate a lot of alpha waves. In contrast, theta waves are associated with a lot of cognitive activity, like visual processing, things where the driver is thinking quite a bit. Now, we can measure this, and we can look at the relative power between the theta waves and the alpha waves. This gives us a measure of mental workload, how much the driver is actually challenged cognitively at any point along the track.
Naravno da to što smo postavili par elektroda na njegovu glavu ne znači da ćemo tačno znati šta se dešava u njegovoj glavi dok je na stazi. Međutim, neurolozi su uočili određene šeme pomoću kojih možemo da uočimo neke veoma važne karakteristike. Na primer, mozak koji se odmara teži da proizvede mnogo alfa talasa. Naspram toga, teta talasi su povezani sa mnogo kognitivnih aktivnosti, poput vizuelne obrade podataka, dakle kada vozač poprilično puno razmišlja. Mi možemo ovo da izmerimo i možemo da uporedimo relativnu snagu između teta i alfa talasa. To nam daje merenje mentalnog opterećenja - koliko je vozač u stvari kognitivno stimulisan u svakom trenutku na stazi.
Now, we wanted to see if we could actually record this on the track, so we headed down south to Laguna Seca. Laguna Seca is a legendary raceway about halfway between Salinas and Monterey. It has a curve there called the Corkscrew. Now, the Corkscrew is a chicane, followed by a quick right-handed turn as the road drops three stories. Now, the strategy for driving this as explained to me was, you aim for the bush in the distance, and as the road falls away, you realize it was actually the top of a tree.
Dakle, mi smo hteli da vidimo da li zaista možemo da snimimo ovo na stazi, tako da smo otišli na jug u Laguna Seka. Laguna Seka je legendarna trkačka staza na pola puta između Salinasa i Montereja. Ima krivinu koja se zove Corkscrew (vadičep). Corkscrew je šikana, nakon koje sledi brza krivina sa desne strane nakon čega se staza spušta na niže skoro tri sprata. Strategija za vožnju ovom stazom, kako su meni bar objasnili, je da ciljate u žbun u daljini, i kako staza počne da se spušta, shvatićete da je to bio zapravo vrh drveta.
All right, so thanks to the Revs Program at Stanford, we were able to take John there and put him behind the wheel of a 1960 Porsche Abarth Carrera. Life is way too short for boring cars. So, here you see John on the track, he's going up the hill -- Oh! Somebody liked that -- and you can see, actually, his mental workload -- measuring here in the red bar -- you can see his actions as he approaches. Now watch, he has to downshift. And then he has to turn left. Look for the tree, and down.
U redu, dakle, zahvaljujući Revs programu na Stenfordu, bili smo u mogućnosti da odvedemo Džona tamo i da ga stavimo za volan Porše Abart Karere iz 1960. godine. Život je prekratak za dosadne automobile. Dakle, ovde vidite Džona na stazi, kako se penje uz brdo - Opa! Nekome se to svidelo - i možete da vidite, zapravo, njegovo mentalno opterećenje - koje se meri ovde na crvenoj skali - možete da vidite njegove reakcije kako prilazi krivini. E sada gledajte, on mora da prebaci u nižu brzinu. I onda mora da skrene levo. Mora da pogleda u drvo, i onda dole.
Not surprisingly, you can see this is a pretty challenging task. You can see his mental workload spike as he goes through this, as you would expect with something that requires this level of complexity. But what's really interesting is to look at areas of the track where his mental workload doesn't increase. I'm going to take you around now to the other side of the track. Turn three. And John's going to go into that corner and the rear end of the car is going to begin to slide out. He's going to have to correct for that with steering. So watch as John does this here. Watch the mental workload, and watch the steering. The car begins to slide out, dramatic maneuver to correct it, and no change whatsoever in the mental workload. Not a challenging task. In fact, entirely reflexive.
Nije iznenađujuće da je ovo, kao što možete videti, veoma zahtevan zadatak. Vidite kako je njegovo mentalno opterećenje u porastu dok prolazi ovaj deo staze, kao što možete i očekivati sa nečim što zahteva ovoliki nivo kompleksnosti. Ali ono što je tu zaista interesantno je da pogledamo delove staze gde se njegov mentalni napor ne povećava. Sad ću da vas odvedem na drugu stranu staze. Treća krivina. Džon će ući u tu krivinu i zadnji deo automobila će početi da proklizava. On će to morati da ispravi upravljanjem. Hajde da pogledamo kako je to Džon uradio. Pogledajte njegovo mentalno opterećenje, i pogledajte upravljanje volanom. Auto počinje da proklizava, nagli manevar da ga ispravi, i nema baš nikakve promene u mentalnom opterećenju. To nije zahtevan zadatak. U stvari, to je potpuno refleksno.
Now, our data processing on this is still preliminary, but it really seems that these phenomenal feats that the race car drivers are performing are instinctive. They are things that they have simply learned to do. It requires very little mental workload for them to perform these amazing feats. And their actions are fantastic. This is exactly what you want to do on the steering wheel to catch the car in this situation.
Naša obrada ovih podataka je još uvek preliminarna ali se uistinu čini da su ovi fenomenalni podvizi koje izvode vozači trkačkih automobila instinktivni. To su stvari koje su oni jednostavno naučili da rade. Ne zahteva mnogo mentalnog opterećenja, da bi se izveli ovi fantastični podvizi. I njihova dela su fantastična. Ovo je upravo ono što želite da uradite sa volanom kako bi ispravili auto u ovoj situaciji.
Now, this has given us tremendous insight and inspiration for our own autonomous vehicles. We've started to ask the question: Can we make them a little less algorithmic and a little more intuitive? Can we take this reflexive action that we see from the very best race car drivers, introduce it to our cars, and maybe even into a system that could get onto your car in the future? That would take us a long step along the road to autonomous vehicles that drive as well as the best humans.
Naravno, ovo nam je dalo neverovatan uvid i inspitaciju za naša samostalna vozila. Zapitali smo se: da li možemo napravimo automobile koji će se manje oslanjati na algoritme i malo više na intuiciju? Da li možemo ovaj refleksni pokret, koji vidimo kod najboljih vozača trkačkih automobila, da implementiramo u naše automobile, i možda čak i u sistem koji bi mogao da se nađe u vašim automobilima, u budućnosti? To bi nas odvelo korak dalje na putu ka samostalnim vozilima koja voze jednako dobro kao i najbolji ljudi.
But it's made us think a little bit more deeply as well. Do we want something more from our car than to simply be a chauffeur? Do we want our car to perhaps be a partner, a coach, someone that can use their understanding of the situation to help us reach our potential? Can, in fact, the technology not simply replace humans, but allow us to reach the level of reflex and intuition that we're all capable of?
Ali to nas je takođe navelo da razmišljamo malo dublje. Da li hoćemo nešto više od našeg automobila osim da nam jednostavno bude vozač? Da li možda želimo da nam auto bude partner, trener, neko ko može iskoristiti svoje razumevanje situacije kako bi nam pomogao da ostvarimo svoje potencijale? Da li tehnologija može, zapravo, ne samo da zameni ljude, već da nam dopusti da postignemo nivo refleksa i intuicije za koji smo svi sposobni?
So, as we move forward into this technological future, I want you to just pause and think of that for a moment. What is the ideal balance of human and machine? And as we think about that, let's take inspiration from the absolutely amazing capabilities of the human body and the human mind.
Stoga, dok se krećemo napred ka ovoj tehnološkoj budućnosti, želim da malo zastanete i razmislite o tome na trenutak. Šta je idealan balans čoveka i mašine? I dok razmišljamo o tome, hajde da se inspirišemo apsolutno neverovatnim sposobnostima ljudskog tela i ljudskog uma.
Thank you.
Hvala vam.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)