So, how many of you have ever gotten behind the wheel of a car when you really shouldn't have been driving? Maybe you're out on the road for a long day, and you just wanted to get home. You were tired, but you felt you could drive a few more miles. Maybe you thought, I've had less to drink than everybody else, I should be the one to go home. Or maybe your mind was just entirely elsewhere.
Dakle, koliko vas je ikad sjelo za upravljač auta a da ste znali da nebi smjeli voziti? Možda ste bili na cesti čitavi dan, i samo ste htjeli doći doma. Bili ste umorni, ali ste osjećali da možete voziti još par kilometara. Možda ste mislili, popio sam manje nego drugi, pa bih ja trebao voziti doma. Ili možda uopće niste razmišljali o tome.
Does this sound familiar to you? Now, in those situations, wouldn't it be great if there was a button on your dashboard that you could push, and the car would get you home safely? Now, that's been the promise of the self-driving car, the autonomous vehicle, and it's been the dream since at least 1939, when General Motors showcased this idea at their Futurama booth at the World's Fair.
Zvuči li vam to poznato? U ovim situacijama, zar ne bi bilo odlično kada bi postojao gumb na upravljačkoj konzoli koji bi mogli stisnuti, i auto bi vas sam sigurno odvezao kući? To je do sada bilo obećanje automobila koji samostalno upravlja, autonomnog vozila, i to je bio san od barem 1939. kada je General Motors objavio ovu ideju za svojim Futurama štandom na Svjetskom sajmu.
Now, it's been one of those dreams that's always seemed about 20 years in the future. Now, two weeks ago, that dream took a step forward, when the state of Nevada granted Google's self-driving car the very first license for an autonomous vehicle, clearly establishing that it's legal for them to test it on the roads in Nevada. Now, California's considering similar legislation, and this would make sure that the autonomous car is not one of those things that has to stay in Vegas.
To je uvijek bio jedan od onih snova, koji se uvijek činio ostvariv tek za 20 godina u budućnosti. Prije dva tjedna, taj san je otišao korak naprijed, kada je savezna država Nevada odobrila Googlovom automobilu prvu dozvolu za vožnju autonomnog vozila, čime je jasno poručila da ga mogu legalno testirati na ulicama Nevade. Kalifornija razmatra sličnu regulativu, i time bi se sigurno postiglo da autonomni automobil nisu jedna od onih stvari koje moraju ostati u Vegasu.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
Now, in my lab at Stanford, we've been working on autonomous cars too, but with a slightly different spin on things. You see, we've been developing robotic race cars, cars that can actually push themselves to the very limits of physical performance.
Eh sada, u mom laboratoriju u Stanfordu, i mi smo radili na autonomnim automobilima, ali na malo drugačiji način. Vidite, mi smo razvijali robotske automobile za utrke, automobile koji se mogu natjerati do samih granica fizičkih performansi.
Now, why would we want to do such a thing? Well, there's two really good reasons for this. First, we believe that before people turn over control to an autonomous car, that autonomous car should be at least as good as the very best human drivers. Now, if you're like me, and the other 70 percent of the population who know that we are above-average drivers, you understand that's a very high bar. There's another reason as well. Just like race car drivers can use all of the friction between the tire and the road, all of the car's capabilities to go as fast as possible, we want to use all of those capabilities to avoid any accident we can.
Eh sada, zašto bismo željeli učiniti takvu stvar? Pa, postoje dva jako dbora razloga za to. Prvo, vjerujemo da prije nego što ljudi predaju kontrolu autonomnom automobilu, taj autonomni automobil mora biti barem toliko dobar koliko i najbolji ljudski vozači. Eh sada, ako ste poput mene, i poput ostalih 70 posto populacije koji znaju da su iznad proječni vozači, razumijete da je to vrlo visok cilj. No tu također postoji i drugi razlog. Baš kao što vozači trkačih automobila mogu iskoristiti svo trenje između guma i ceste, sve mogućnosti automobila da idu najbrže što mogu, mi želimo iskoristiti sve te mogućnosti da izbjegnemo svaku moguću nesreću.
Now, you may push the car to the limits not because you're driving too fast, but because you've hit an icy patch of road, conditions have changed. In those situations, we want a car that is capable enough to avoid any accident that can physically be avoided.
Eh sada, možda možete natjerati auto do samih granica ne zato jer vozite prebrzo, već zato jer ste naišli na zaleđeni dio ceste, jer su se uvjeti promijenili. U takvim situacijama, mi želimo da je auto dovoljno sposoban da izbjegne svaku nesreću koja bi se zapravo mogla izbjeći.
I must confess, there's kind of a third motivation as well. You see, I have a passion for racing. In the past, I've been a race car owner, a crew chief and a driving coach, although maybe not at the level that you're currently expecting. One of the things that we've developed in the lab -- we've developed several vehicles -- is what we believe is the world's first autonomously drifting car. It's another one of those categories where maybe there's not a lot of competition.
Moram priznati, postoji tu i treća motivacija. Vidite, ja sam strastven u vezi utrka. U prošlosti, posjedovao sam trkaći auto, bio sam šef tima, i instruktor za vožnju, iako možda ne na nivou koji trenutno očekujete. Jedna od stvari koje smo razvili u laboratoriju -- a razvili smo više vozila-- je ono što vjerujemo da je prvi na svijetu autonoman auto koji drifta. To je još jedna od onih kategorija gdje vjerovatno nema mnogo konkurencije.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
But this is P1. It's an entirely student-built electric vehicle, which through using its rear-wheel drive and front-wheel steer-by-wire can drift around corners. It can get sideways like a rally car driver, always able to take the tightest curve, even on slippery, changing surfaces, never spinning out.
Ali ovo je P1. To električno vozilo u potpunosti napravljeno od strane studenata koje uz pomoć stražnjeg pogona i prednjeg upravljanja preko žica može driftati u zavojima. Mogu se zanositi postrance poput vozača relija, uvijek su u mogučnosti proći kroz najuži zavoj, čak i na skliskim, nepredvidljivim površinama, i nikada se ne izmaknu kontroli.
We've also worked with Volkswagen Oracle, on Shelley, an autonomous race car that has raced at 150 miles an hour through the Bonneville Salt Flats, gone around Thunderhill Raceway Park in the sun, the wind and the rain, and navigated the 153 turns and 12.4 miles of the Pikes Peak Hill Climb route in Colorado with nobody at the wheel.
Također smo radili s Volkswagen Oracleom, na Schelly, autonomnom trkačem automobilu koji je jurio 241 kilometar na sat na Bonnevilskim slanim ravnicama. vozio po Thunderhill trkačem parku po suncu, vjetru i po kiši, i uspješno prošao svih 153 zavoja na 20 kilometara dugom usponu Pikes Peak brda u Koloradu dok nikog nije bilo za volanom.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
(Applause)
(Aplauz)
I guess it goes without saying that we've had a lot of fun doing this. But in fact, there's something else that we've developed in the process of developing these autonomous cars. We have developed a tremendous appreciation for the capabilities of human race car drivers. As we've looked at the question of how well do these cars perform, we wanted to compare them to our human counterparts. And we discovered their human counterparts are amazing. Now, we can take a map of a race track, we can take a mathematical model of a car, and with some iteration, we can actually find the fastest way around that track. We line that up with data that we record from a professional driver, and the resemblance is absolutely remarkable.
Pretpostavljam da vam ni ne moramo reči koliko smo se jako zabavljali dok smo radili na ovome. Ali, postoji još nešto što smo razvili u procesu razvoja ovih autonomnih automobila. Razvili smo nevjerojatno poštovanje prema mogučnostima koji vozači ovih trkačih auta imaju. Dok smo istraživali koliko su dobri ovi auti, htjeli smo ih usporediti s našim ljudskim suparnicima. I otkrili smo da su njihovi ljudski suparnici nevjerojatni. Možemo uzeti kartu trkače staze, možemo uzeti matematički model auta, i uz nešto iteracije, možemo zapravo naći najbržu putanju za tu stazu. Usporedili smo te podatke s onima koje smo snimili od profesionalnog vozača, i podudarnost je bila apsolutno nevjerojatna.
Yes, there are subtle differences here, but the human race car driver is able to go out and drive an amazingly fast line, without the benefit of an algorithm that compares the trade-off between going as fast as possible in this corner, and shaving a little bit of time off of the straight over here. Not only that, they're able to do it lap after lap after lap. They're able to go out and consistently do this, pushing the car to the limits every single time. It's extraordinary to watch. You put them in a new car, and after a few laps, they've found the fastest line in that car, and they're off to the races.
Da, ovdje postoje male razlike, ali čovjek može izaći na stazu i voziti nevjerojatno brzim putanjama, bez pomoći algoritma koji uspoređuje balans između jurenja najbrže što možemo kroz ovaj zavoj, i "skidanja" vremena na onoj ravnini. Ne samo to, oni su u mogućnosti da to rade krug za krugom za krugom. Oni su u mogućnosti izaći na stazu i neprestano to raditi, gurati automobil do samih granica svakog puta. To je nevjerojatno za gledati. Stavite ih u neki novi auto, i nakon par krugova, oni su našli najbržu putanju za taj auto, i već se mogu utrkivati.
It really makes you think, we'd love to know what's going on inside their brain. So as researchers, that's what we decided to find out. We decided to instrument not only the car, but also the race car driver, to try to get a glimpse into what was going on in their head as they were doing this. Now, this is Dr. Lene Harbott applying electrodes to the head of John Morton. John Morton is a former Can-Am and IMSA driver, who's also a class champion at Le Mans. Fantastic driver, and very willing to put up with graduate students and this sort of research. She's putting electrodes on his head so that we can monitor the electrical activity in John's brain as he races around the track.
To vas zaista natjera da pomislite, voljeli bismo znati što se događa u njihovom mozgu. A kako smo istraživači, upravo to smo odlučili doznati. Odlučili smo spojiti instrumente ne samo na auto, već i na vozača, kako bismo pokušali dobiti sliku o tome što se događa u njihovoj glavi dok to rade. Ovo je Dr. Lene Harbott dok postavlja elektrode na glavu Johna Mortona. John Moron je bivši Can-Am i IMSA vozač, koji je također prvak u svojoj klasi na Le Mans utrci. Odličan vozač, i vrlo strpljiv sa studentima i ovakvom vrstom istraživanja. Ona stavlja elektrode na glavu kako bismo mogli pratiti električne aktivnosti u Johnovom mozgu dok vozi stazom.
Now, clearly we're not going to put a couple of electrodes on his head and understand exactly what all of his thoughts are on the track. However, neuroscientists have identified certain patterns that let us tease out some very important aspects of this. For instance, the resting brain tends to generate a lot of alpha waves. In contrast, theta waves are associated with a lot of cognitive activity, like visual processing, things where the driver is thinking quite a bit. Now, we can measure this, and we can look at the relative power between the theta waves and the alpha waves. This gives us a measure of mental workload, how much the driver is actually challenged cognitively at any point along the track.
Eh sada, sigurno nećemo postaviti par elektroda na njegovu glavu i odma shvatiti što se sve točno događa dok je on na stazi. Kako bilo, neuroznanstvenici su uočili određene uzorke pomoću kojih vidimo neke vrlo bitne značajke. Na primjer, mozak koji se odmara proizvodi mnogo alfa valova. Nasuprot tome, theta valovi su povezani s mnogo kongitivne aktivnosti, poput obrade vida, te stvari gdje vozač poprilično puno razmišlja. Mi možemo izmjeriti ovo, i možemo usporediti relativnu snagu između theta valova i alfa valova. To nam daje mjeru mentalnog opterećenja, koliko je vozač zapravo zaokupljen kongitivno tijekom svakog dijela staze.
Now, we wanted to see if we could actually record this on the track, so we headed down south to Laguna Seca. Laguna Seca is a legendary raceway about halfway between Salinas and Monterey. It has a curve there called the Corkscrew. Now, the Corkscrew is a chicane, followed by a quick right-handed turn as the road drops three stories. Now, the strategy for driving this as explained to me was, you aim for the bush in the distance, and as the road falls away, you realize it was actually the top of a tree.
Mi smo htjeli vidjeti možemo li to zapravo snimiti na stazi, pa smo otišli dolje na jug u Laguna Seca. Laguna Seca je legendarna trkača staza na pola puta između Salinasa i Montereya. Ima zavoj koji nazivaju vadičep. Vadičep je zapravo šikana, nakon koje slijedi brzi zavoj u desno tjekom kojeg se staza spušta tri kata prema dolje. Strategija za vožnju ovim zavojem, kako su meni objasnili je, da ciljate grmić u daljini, i kako se cesta počinje spuštati, shvatite da je to zapravo vrh drveta.
All right, so thanks to the Revs Program at Stanford, we were able to take John there and put him behind the wheel of a 1960 Porsche Abarth Carrera. Life is way too short for boring cars. So, here you see John on the track, he's going up the hill -- Oh! Somebody liked that -- and you can see, actually, his mental workload -- measuring here in the red bar -- you can see his actions as he approaches. Now watch, he has to downshift. And then he has to turn left. Look for the tree, and down.
U redu, zahvaljujući Revs programu na Stanfordu, bili smo u mogućnosti odvesti Johna ondje i staviti za za upravljač Porshe Avarth Carrere iz 1960. Jer život je prekratak za dosadne aute. Dakle, ovdje vidite Johna na stazi, kako se penje uz brdo -- Oh! Nekome se svidjelo ovo -- i možete vidjeti, zapravo, njegovo mentalno opterećenje -- koje se mjeri ovdje crvenim grafikonom -- možete vidjeti njegove reakcije dok prilazi. Sada pazite, treba prebaciti u nižu brzinu. I onda treba skreniti ulijevo. Pogledati u drvo, i dolje.
Not surprisingly, you can see this is a pretty challenging task. You can see his mental workload spike as he goes through this, as you would expect with something that requires this level of complexity. But what's really interesting is to look at areas of the track where his mental workload doesn't increase. I'm going to take you around now to the other side of the track. Turn three. And John's going to go into that corner and the rear end of the car is going to begin to slide out. He's going to have to correct for that with steering. So watch as John does this here. Watch the mental workload, and watch the steering. The car begins to slide out, dramatic maneuver to correct it, and no change whatsoever in the mental workload. Not a challenging task. In fact, entirely reflexive.
Neiznenađujuće, možete vidjeti da je ovo poprilično zahtjevan zadatak. Možete vidjeti kako njegovo mentalno opetrećenje jako raste dok prolazi kroz ovo, kao što možete i očekivati s nečim što zahtjeva ovoliki supanj kompleksnosti. Ali ono što je zaista zanimljivo jest pogledati dijelove staze gdje se njegovo moždano opterećenje ne povećava. Odvesti ću vas preko sada, na drugi dio staze. Zavoj broj tri. John će ući u taj zavoj i zadnji dio automobila će početi poklizavati. To će morati ispraviti upravljanjem. Pa pogledajte Johna kako to radi ovdje. Pogledajte njegovo moždano opterečenje, i pogledajte kako upravlja. Auto počinje proklizavati, dramatičan manevar da ispravi to, i nema baš nikakve promjene u moždanom opterećenju. To nije zahtijevan zadatak. Zapravo, to je potpuno refleksno.
Now, our data processing on this is still preliminary, but it really seems that these phenomenal feats that the race car drivers are performing are instinctive. They are things that they have simply learned to do. It requires very little mental workload for them to perform these amazing feats. And their actions are fantastic. This is exactly what you want to do on the steering wheel to catch the car in this situation.
Naša obrada podataka u vezi ovoga je još preliminarna, ali uistinu se čini da ovi fenomenali pothvati koje izvode vozači trkačih automobila su instiktivni. To su stvari koje su oni jednostavno naučili raditi. Zahtjeva se jako malo moždanog rada da bi se izveli ti nevjerojatni podvizi. I njihova djela su fantastična. Ovo je upravo ono što želite napraviti s upravljačem kako biste ispravili auto u ovoj situaciji.
Now, this has given us tremendous insight and inspiration for our own autonomous vehicles. We've started to ask the question: Can we make them a little less algorithmic and a little more intuitive? Can we take this reflexive action that we see from the very best race car drivers, introduce it to our cars, and maybe even into a system that could get onto your car in the future? That would take us a long step along the road to autonomous vehicles that drive as well as the best humans.
Ovo nam je pružilo nevjerojatan uvid i inspiraciju za naša autonomna vozila. Pitali smo se jednu stvar: Možemo li ih napraviti da se manje oslanjaju na algoritme i malo više intuitivnima. Možemo li uzeti ovaj refleksni pokret koji vidimo kod najboljih vozača trkačih automobila, uvesti ih u naše aute, a možda čak i u sustave koji bi se mogli naći u vašim autima u budučnosti? To bi nas odvelo velikim korakom prema naprijed na putu prema autonomnim vozilima koji voze jednako dobro kao i najbolji ljudi.
But it's made us think a little bit more deeply as well. Do we want something more from our car than to simply be a chauffeur? Do we want our car to perhaps be a partner, a coach, someone that can use their understanding of the situation to help us reach our potential? Can, in fact, the technology not simply replace humans, but allow us to reach the level of reflex and intuition that we're all capable of?
Ali to nas je također natjeralo da razmišljamo malo dublje. Želimo li još nešto od našeg auta osim da nam jednostavno bude vozač? Želimo li možda da nam auto bude partner, trener, netko tko može iskoristiti svoje razumijevanje situacije kako bi nam pomogao da dosegnemo svoje potencijale? Može li, zapravo, tehnologija ne samo zamijeniti ljude, nego dopustiti nam da dostignemo razinu refleksa i intuicije na koju smo svi sposobni?
So, as we move forward into this technological future, I want you to just pause and think of that for a moment. What is the ideal balance of human and machine? And as we think about that, let's take inspiration from the absolutely amazing capabilities of the human body and the human mind.
Stoga, dok se krećemo naprijed u ovu tehnološku budućnost, želim da malo zastanete i razmislite na trenutak. Koja je idealna ravnoteža ljudi i strojeva? I dok razmišljamo o tome, preuzmimo inspiraciju od apsolutno nevjerojatnih sposobnosti ljudskog tijela i ljudskog uma.
Thank you.
Hvala vam.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)