It's 2041. The world is even stranger than fiction. Full of astonishing technologies and scientific advances. But there's still one thing that is very familiar. COVID is still with us. We've just figured out how to live with it. You haven't been outside of your apartment for three years. The pandemic of 2021 traumatized you. You still have the nightmares about losing your grandparents and despite advances, fear of infection has kept you inside and isolated. You've just found out that the lover you met in an immersive online game has flown halfway around the world to meet you. But now he's quarantined in the hospital, stricken with a new, extremely virulent variant of the virus. It looks like he might die even before you met him. You decide you've got to venture out, into the dangerous world beyond your four walls.
現在是2041年。 世界與科幻相比較爲陌生, 到處充滿著驚人的技術和科學進步。 可是,有一樣東西我們是熟悉的。 新冠肺炎還與我們同在。 我們剛剛發現如何與它共存。 你已經沒有三年沒有離開你的公寓了。 2021年的流行病給你帶來了創傷。 你還在失去你的祖父母的悲傷裏。 儘管有很多科技進展, 擔心被傳染的恐懼 把你關了起來與世隔離。 你剛發現, 你在沉浸式網絡遊戲中 遇到的那個愛人 已經飛越半個地球來與你相遇。 可是,他現在在醫院隔離, 被一個新的、毒力極強的 變種病毒感染了。 看起來,他甚至可能會 在你遇見他之前死亡。 你決定你必須冒險 離開這裏的四面墻、 走到外面危險的世界。
Luckily, there are robots to help you. Your housekeeping robot takes you to a special elevator reserved for robots only, allowing you to completely avoid people. It’s crammed with all manners of bots. DeliveryBot, CleaningBot, SeniorCareBot, DogWalkingBot, even the walls and ceiling are covered with DisinfectionBots that resemble insects.
幸好,有機器幫你。 你的家政機器人帶你到 一個機器人專用的 特殊的電梯, 讓你完全避開人群。 這裡擠滿了各種各樣的機器人。 送貨機器人、 打掃機器人、照顧長者的 機器人、遛狗機器人, 甚至牆壁和天花板 都被像昆蟲的消毒機器人覆蓋。
You cautiously step out on the street for the first time, eyeing the passers-by with suspicion. You rely on your Safety Circle app on your mobile device to keep you safe. It alerts you with a vibration or buzz if potential virus carriers step too close. The biosensor membranes on your inner wrist display real time physiological data, including the expiration of various vaccines -- and yours are three years out of date! Without this electric identification film, you definitely can’t get to the hospital, or anywhere, as it’s needed to access transportation. Meanwhile, your device streams real-time medical status of your dying lover, making it hard not to panic. You race against the clock. When you make it in time? Can you even get there?
你第一次小心翼翼地走在街上, 用懷疑的目光看著路人。 你依賴你的移動設備上的 安全圈應用程序來確保你的安全。 如果有潛在的病毒攜帶者走近你, 它會通過振動或嗡嗡聲提醒你。 在你的手腕內側的生物傳感器膜 顯示實時生理數據, 包括各種到期的疫苗, 而你的已經過時三年了! 沒有這個電子識別膜, 你絕對不能去醫院, 甚至任何需要交通的地方。 同時,你的設備正在播放著 你垂死愛人的實時醫療狀況, 讓你很難不驚慌。 你正在與時間競跑。 你可以按時完成嗎? 你可以到達那裡嗎?
You can. Thanks to AI-automated processes, it was possible to synthesize a quick-fix drug for your lover. And technologies such as AlphaFold will accelerate the speed of vaccine development from years to weeks.
你可以。 這一切歸功於人工智慧自動化流程。 它可以給你的愛人製造特效藥。 AlphaFold等技術 將加快疫苗的速度 從幾年到幾週的發展。
So, what else could happen in 2041? Anti-fake detectors are part of the standard configuration for cybersecurity. The abuse of technology such as deepfakes to spread rumors and hatred increase conflicts and tear the society apart, it's a thing of the past. Real personalized learning finally arrives with customized AI companions that calibrate creativity, communication and compassion to each individual equally. Educational technology no longer exacerbates class divisions. With digital twins enabled by natural language processing and XR technologies, Kobe Bryant, Maradona and Whitney Houston would be reborn and become immortal virtual characters in your customized entertainment experience.
還有哪些會在2041年發生的呢? 防偽檢測器將會是網絡安全的 一部分標準配置。 濫用深度偽造等技術 來散佈謠言與仇恨, 增加矛盾以及分裂社會, 這都會是以前才會發生的事情。 真正的個性化學習終於到來。 定制的人工智慧同伴 會對每個人一視同仁, 並可以校準創造力,溝通與同情。 教育技術不再加劇階級分化。 通過自然語言處理和擴展現實技術 和啟用數字孿生, 科比·布萊恩特,馬拉多納 和惠特尼·休斯頓將重生, 成為你的定制娛樂體驗中的 不朽的虛擬人物。
2041 is just around the corner. Only 20 years away. And most of us watching this talk will, if lucky enough, be alive to experience it. That's why, together with the artificial intelligence expert, Dr. Kai-Fu Lee, I chose to write a book that blends science fiction realism with the analysis, not just of technology, but also the big ideas that animate technology. When most think of AI in science fiction, it's often dystopian. HAL 9000, Terminator, Ex Machina -- The AI always feels competitive, hostile, the outlook for humanity bleak. But with our book, we explore a different approach.
2041年將快到來。 僅僅20年之後。 如果足夠幸運,大多數在 看這個演講的人, 將會活著去體驗這一切。 這就是為什麼,我與人工智慧 專家,李開復博士, 寫出了不僅融合了科幻現實主義 與技術分析, 同時還有動畫技術 偉大想法的一本書。 大多數人想到科幻小說中的人工智慧 通常是反烏托邦的。 哈爾9000、終結者、機械姬等, 人工智慧總會讓我們感覺 有競爭、敵意, 甚至覺得人類的前景一片黯淡。 我們為這本書探索不同的方法。
We spent almost two years visiting labs and AI scientists, entrepreneurs, researchers and scholars, trying to figure out the most realistic road map of AI development over the next 20 years. The AI technology we researched into for the book range from natural-language processing to GPT-3, to augmented mixed virtual reality, computer vision, GANs, brain-computer interfaces. We put all this solid know-how into predictions and futuristic storytellings, set in 10 different cities all around the world.
我們花了將近兩年的時間 走訪實驗室和訪問人工智慧科學家, 企業家、研究人員和學者, 試圖找出在未來的20年裡 最現實的人工智慧發展路線圖。 我們這本書所研究的 人工智慧技術範圍包括 從自然語言處理, 到GPT-3,到增強混合虛擬現實, 計算機視覺、生成 對抗網絡、腦機接口。 我們把所有這些紮實的專業知識 帶進預測和未來派的故事, 故事設置在世界各地 十個不同的城市。
It was not easy to tell stories in that way. But without disregarding AI's faults and nuances, Kai-Fu and I endeavor to portray a future where AI technology could influence individuals and societies positively. We wish to represent how individuals from disparate cultures and industries, with different identities would react to the future shock induced by AI.
以這種方式講故事,其實並不容易。 在沒有漠视人工智慧的缺點 和細微差別的前提下, 我和開復努力描繪 人工智慧技術如何可以正面地影響 個人和社會的未來。 我們希望涵蓋來自不同文化、 不同的行業、 不同身份的人對人工智慧 引發的未來衝擊該有的反應。
Let's get back to 2021, the present. The pandemic still spans the world. The people are still unemployed, isolated from friends, family and nature. Will AI really solve all these problems? From modern submarine to the laser gun, from mobile phones to CRISPR, many scientists will admit inspiration from fiction. Imagination does shape the world. So for every future we wish to create, we must first learn to imagine it. By imagining the future through science fiction, we can even step in, make changes and actively play a role in shaping our reality.
讓我們回到現在,2021 年。 疫情仍在全球蔓延。 許多人還是失業, 與朋友、家人,以及大自然隔離。 人工智慧真的會解決嗎 所有這些問題? 從現代潛艇到激光槍, 從手機到CRISPR(基因剪輯), 許多科學家會承認 靈感來自小說。 想像力確實塑造了世界。 所以對於我們希望創造的每一個未來, 我們必須學習想像它。 通過科幻想像未來, 我們甚至可以介入,做出改變, 積極發揮作用來塑造我們的現實。
Thank you.
謝謝。