It's 2041. The world is even stranger than fiction. Full of astonishing technologies and scientific advances. But there's still one thing that is very familiar. COVID is still with us. We've just figured out how to live with it. You haven't been outside of your apartment for three years. The pandemic of 2021 traumatized you. You still have the nightmares about losing your grandparents and despite advances, fear of infection has kept you inside and isolated. You've just found out that the lover you met in an immersive online game has flown halfway around the world to meet you. But now he's quarantined in the hospital, stricken with a new, extremely virulent variant of the virus. It looks like he might die even before you met him. You decide you've got to venture out, into the dangerous world beyond your four walls.
现在是2041年。 世界比小说还要奇怪。 到处是令人惊叹的技术和科学进步。 但仍有一件事无比熟悉。 新冠仍然没有消失。 我们刚刚学会如何与之相处。 你已经 3 年没有出过家门。 那场 2021 年的疫病大流行伤害了你。 你还是常常做恶梦, 梦见去世的爷爷奶奶, 尽管有了很大进展, 但感染病毒的恐惧 依旧让你足不出户,与世隔绝。 你刚刚得知 你在一款沉浸式网游里认识的爱人 刚刚飞越了半个地球来找你。 但他现在被隔离在医院, 饱受病毒折磨, 那是一种新出现的致命变体。 他也许还来不及见你就会死去。 你决定冒险出门, 踏入外面那危险的世界。
Luckily, there are robots to help you. Your housekeeping robot takes you to a special elevator reserved for robots only, allowing you to completely avoid people. It’s crammed with all manners of bots. DeliveryBot, CleaningBot, SeniorCareBot, DogWalkingBot, even the walls and ceiling are covered with DisinfectionBots that resemble insects.
还好有机器人可以帮你。 你的家政服务机器人 带你去坐一部特殊的电梯, 是专供机器人使用的, 能让你完全避开人群。 电梯里是各式各样的机器人。 送快递的, 做清洁的,照顾老人的,遛狗的, 甚至墙上和天花板上 也爬满了消毒机器人, 它们长得像昆虫一样。
You cautiously step out on the street for the first time, eyeing the passers-by with suspicion. You rely on your Safety Circle app on your mobile device to keep you safe. It alerts you with a vibration or buzz if potential virus carriers step too close. The biosensor membranes on your inner wrist display real time physiological data, including the expiration of various vaccines -- and yours are three years out of date! Without this electric identification film, you definitely can’t get to the hospital, or anywhere, as it’s needed to access transportation. Meanwhile, your device streams real-time medical status of your dying lover, making it hard not to panic. You race against the clock. When you make it in time? Can you even get there?
你第一次小心翼翼地踏上了街道, 警惕地注视着来来往往的行人。 你通过手机里的“平安圈” App 来确保自己安全。 如果有疑似病毒携带者离你太近, 它会震动或者发出嗡嗡声来警告你。 贴在你手腕内侧的薄膜型生物传感器 实时显示你的生理数据, 包括你各种疫苗的过期时间, 而你的已经过期 3 年了! 没有这个电子身份证明, 你肯定没法进到医院, 甚至哪儿都去不了, 因为乘坐交通工具也要用到它。 同时,你的设备 还实时显示你那奄奄一息的 爱人的身体状况, 更让你无法冷静。 你是在跟时间赛跑。 你来得及吗? 你能赶到那儿吗?
You can. Thanks to AI-automated processes, it was possible to synthesize a quick-fix drug for your lover. And technologies such as AlphaFold will accelerate the speed of vaccine development from years to weeks.
你可以。 有了人工智能驱动的自动化程式, 就有可能为你的爱人 合成出一款特效药。 而像 AlphaFold 这样的技术 会将研发疫苗的周期 从几年缩短到几个星期。
So, what else could happen in 2041? Anti-fake detectors are part of the standard configuration for cybersecurity. The abuse of technology such as deepfakes to spread rumors and hatred increase conflicts and tear the society apart, it's a thing of the past. Real personalized learning finally arrives with customized AI companions that calibrate creativity, communication and compassion to each individual equally. Educational technology no longer exacerbates class divisions. With digital twins enabled by natural language processing and XR technologies, Kobe Bryant, Maradona and Whitney Houston would be reborn and become immortal virtual characters in your customized entertainment experience.
2041 年还会发生什么呢? 反伪造探测器 将成为网络安全的标准配置之一。 类似深度伪造这类技术的滥用, 传播了谣言和仇恨, 造成了冲突和社会的分裂, 这样的事不会再发生。 真正的个性化学习 最终与定制化的 AI 伙伴一同到来, 激发创造力、 沟通和同理心, 平等地对待每一个人。 教育技术不再加剧阶级分化。 由自然语言处理和延展现实技术 带来的数字双胞胎技术, 科比·布莱恩特、麦当娜 和惠特妮·休斯顿将得以重生, 成为永生的虚拟角色, 为你带来定制化的娱乐体验。
2041 is just around the corner. Only 20 years away. And most of us watching this talk will, if lucky enough, be alive to experience it. That's why, together with the artificial intelligence expert, Dr. Kai-Fu Lee, I chose to write a book that blends science fiction realism with the analysis, not just of technology, but also the big ideas that animate technology. When most think of AI in science fiction, it's often dystopian. HAL 9000, Terminator, Ex Machina -- The AI always feels competitive, hostile, the outlook for humanity bleak. But with our book, we explore a different approach.
2041 年已经离我们很近了。 只有短短20年。 幸运的话,在听我演讲的大多数人, 都可以看到那一天。 因此,我才会与人工智能专家, 李开复博士一起 写一本书,将科幻现实 与分析,不仅仅是技术层面的分析, 还包括那些推动技术进步的 重要想法,融合在一起。 很多人一想到科幻小说里的 AI, 通常认为它们是反乌托邦的。 比如 HAL 9000、 终结者、机械姬等等, AI 总是给人感觉好胜心强、有敌意, 人类的未来堪忧。 但我们的书探索了不同的可能性。
We spent almost two years visiting labs and AI scientists, entrepreneurs, researchers and scholars, trying to figure out the most realistic road map of AI development over the next 20 years. The AI technology we researched into for the book range from natural-language processing to GPT-3, to augmented mixed virtual reality, computer vision, GANs, brain-computer interfaces. We put all this solid know-how into predictions and futuristic storytellings, set in 10 different cities all around the world.
我们花了差不多 2 年时间 走访实验室和 AI 科学家、 企业家、研究者和学者, 试图搞清楚未来 20 年 AI 发展 最现实的路径。 我们为写这本书研究过的 AI 技术, 包括自然语言处理、 GPT-3、增强混合虚拟现实、 计算机视觉、生成对抗网络、 脑机接口等。 我们将这些已经存在的技术 融入到具有预见性、 未来性的故事讲述中, 背景设置在全球各地 10 座不同的城市。
It was not easy to tell stories in that way. But without disregarding AI's faults and nuances, Kai-Fu and I endeavor to portray a future where AI technology could influence individuals and societies positively. We wish to represent how individuals from disparate cultures and industries, with different identities would react to the future shock induced by AI.
用这种方法来讲故事并不容易。 但是开复和我并没有忽视 AI 的缺点和差别, 努力描述了一种未来, AI 技术可以对个人和社会 产生正面影响。 我们希望描绘出不同文化背景、 不同行业、不同身份的人, 如何应对 AI 在未来带来的冲击。
Let's get back to 2021, the present. The pandemic still spans the world. The people are still unemployed, isolated from friends, family and nature. Will AI really solve all these problems? From modern submarine to the laser gun, from mobile phones to CRISPR, many scientists will admit inspiration from fiction. Imagination does shape the world. So for every future we wish to create, we must first learn to imagine it. By imagining the future through science fiction, we can even step in, make changes and actively play a role in shaping our reality.
让我们回到如今,2021年。 疫情仍然席卷全球。 人们依旧没有工作, 远离朋友、家人和大自然。 AI 真的可以解决所有这些问题吗? 从现代潜艇到激光枪, 从手机到基因编辑技术, 许多科学家都承认自己 是从科幻小说中得到的启发。 想象力的确可以改变世界。 所以对于我们想要创造的每一个未来, 我们都应该先学会想象它。 通过科幻小说想象未来, 我们甚至可以参与其中,带来改变, 积极塑造我们的现实世界。
Thank you.
谢谢。