I've been fascinated with crop diversity for about 35 years from now, ever since I stumbled across a fairly obscure academic article by a guy named Jack Harlan. And he described the diversity within crops -- all the different kinds of wheat and rice and such -- as a genetic resource. And he said, "This genetic resource," -- and I'll never forget the words -- "stands between us and catastrophic starvation on a scale we cannot imagine."
我着迷于作物的多样化已经有35年之久, 自从我偶然读了一篇杰克卡兰 写的晦涩的学术论文后。 他是这样来描述作物的多样性的 -- 麦子和大米等等的所有种类 -- 都是一种基因资源。 他说到,“基因资源” -- 而我从来没有忘记这些话 -- “我们和灾难性饥饿间 的距离是我们无法想象的”
I figured he was either really on to something, or he was one of these academic nutcases. So, I looked a little further, and what I figured out was that he wasn't a nutcase. He was the most respected scientist in the field. What he understood was that biological diversity -- crop diversity -- is the biological foundation of agriculture. It's the raw material, the stuff, of evolution in our agricultural crops. Not a trivial matter. And he also understood that that foundation was crumbling, literally crumbling. That indeed, a mass extinction was underway in our fields, in our agricultural system. And that this mass extinction was taking place with very few people noticing and even fewer caring.
我想他一定是执迷着什么。 或他是书呆子中的一员。 所以,我又进一步看了看。 然后我发现他并不是书呆子。 他是这方面里最受尊敬的科学家。 他所理解的生物多样性 -- 作物多样性 --¥ 是农业的生物基础。 是原材料,是我们农业作物进化的东西。 这不是微不足道的事情。 他也认识到到这基础摇摇欲坠。 真的是摇摇欲坠。 那就是,的确,在我们农业系统中 大量的灭绝。 大规模灭绝正在发生 很少人注意到这一点, 更没人在乎。
Now, I know that many of you don't stop to think about diversity in agricultural systems and, let's face it, that's logical. You don't see it in the newspaper every day. And when you go into the supermarket, you certainly don't see a lot of choices there. You see apples that are red, yellow, and green and that's about it.
现在,我知道你们中还有很多人在不停的 思考这农业系统中的多样化, 承认吧,这是符合逻辑的。 你不会每天在报纸上看到它。 而当你去超市时,你当然不会察觉到那里有多少选择。 你看到红的,黄的的绿的苹果,就只是这些了。
So, let me show you a picture of one form of diversity. Here's some beans, and there are about 35 or 40 different varieties of beans on this picture. Now, imagine each one of these varieties as being distinct from another about the same way as a poodle from a Great Dane. If I wanted to show you a picture of all the dog breeds in the world, and I put 30 or 40 of them on a slide, it would take about 10 slides because there about 400 breeds of dogs in the world. But there are 35 to 40,000 different varieties of beans. So if I were to going to show you all the beans in the world, and I had a slide like this, and I switched it every second, it would take up my entire TED talk, and I wouldn't have to say anything.
所以,当我来给你们看看代表多样化的一种图片。 这里有一些豆子 在图片上显示了大概有35-40 种不同的豆子。 现在想象下这些物种中的每一个都区别都和 狮子狗和大丹狗一样。 如果我想给你们看看世界上狗的所有品种。 每一个照片上放上30-40个,会用去10个照片。 因为世界上有大概400种狗。 但是有35000到40000种不同种类的豆子。 所以如果我要想你们展示世界上所有的豆子, 用同样的图片,每1秒一张, 光这就会用去我所有的TED演讲时间。 我说不了任何别的事情。
But the interesting thing is that this diversity -- and the tragic thing is -- that this diversity is being lost. We have about 200,000 different varieties of wheat, and we have about 2 to 400,000 different varieties of rice, but it's being lost. And I want to give you an example of that. It's a bit of a personal example, in fact. In the United States, in the 1800s -- that's where we have the best data -- farmers and gardeners were growing 7,100 named varieties of apples. Imagine that. 7,100 apples with names. Today, 6,800 of those are extinct, no longer to be seen again.
但是多样化就有趣在于 -- 也是悲剧在于 -- 多样化正在消失。 我们大概有200000种不同的麦子, 大概有200000—400000种不同的大米品种, 但是正在消失。 我想给你们看个例子。 实际上,是我亲身的体验。 再美国,再18世纪 --从那时开始我们才开始纪录 -- 农民和园艺工作者曾种植着7100 种不同名称的苹果。 想像一下7100种不同名字的苹果。 今天有6800种已经灭绝了, 再也看不到了。
I used to have a list of these extinct apples, and when I would go out and give a presentation, I would pass the list out in the audience. I wouldn't tell them what it was, but it was in alphabetical order, and I would tell them to look for their names, their family names, their mother's maiden name. And at the end of the speech, I would ask, "How many people have found a name?" And I never had fewer than two-thirds of an audience hold up their hand. And I said, "You know what? These apples come from your ancestors, and your ancestors gave them the greatest honor they could give them. They gave them their name. The bad news is they're extinct. The good news is a third of you didn't hold up your hand. Your apple's still out there. Find it. Make sure it doesn't join the list."
我原来有一份灭绝了的苹果的名单, 当我出去要办讲座的时候, 我就会把名单分给听众。 我不会告诉他们这是什么,但是这是按字母排列的, 我会让他们去找找自己的名字,他们自己的姓, 她们母亲的名字。 就在讲座结束的时候,我会问到,”多少人找到了他们自己的名字?“ 每次至少有三分之二的人举了手。 然后我说道,”你们知道吗?这些苹果是从你们祖先传下来的, 而且你们的祖先把他们最宝贵的东西给了它们。 他们给了苹果他们的名字。 不幸的是,它们已经灭绝了。 好消息是,还有三分之一的人没有举手。你们的苹果还在那。 找找看。确定他们不会加入这份名单。“
So, I want to tell you that the piece of the good news is that the Fowler apple is still out there. And there's an old book back here, and I want to read a piece from it. This book was published in 1904. It's called "The Apples of New York" and this is the second volume. See, we used to have a lot of apples. And the Fowler apple is described in here -- I hope this doesn't surprise you -- as, "a beautiful fruit." (Laughter) I don't know if we named the apple or if the apple named us, but ... but, to be honest, the description goes on and it says that it "doesn't rank high in quality, however." And then he has to go even further. It sounds like it was written by an old school teacher of mine. "As grown in New York, the fruit usually fails to develop properly in size and quality and is, on the whole, unsatisfactory."
所以我想告诉你们的好消息之一是 福勒苹果还存在。 而且这里有一本很古老的书, 我想给你们念其中一段。 这本书出版于1904年。 叫做”纽约的苹果“而且这是第二部。 瞧瞧,我们曾经还是有很多苹果品种的。 它是这样描写福勒苹果的 -- 我希望这不要吓着你 -- ”一个美丽的水果“ (笑) 我真不知道是我们命名了苹果还是苹果命名了我买,但是... 但是,说实话,这个描述还有 说到,”但是质量并不高。“ 然后书里还说到。 听起来想是我原来学校老师写我一样。 ”在纽约生长,这个水果并不能在大小和质量上 完全成熟,总的来说,不让人满意。“
(Laughter)
(笑)
And I guess there's a lesson to be learned here, and the lesson is: so why save it? I get this question all the time. Why don't we just save the best one? And there are a couple of answers to that question. One thing is that there is no such thing as a best one. Today's best variety is tomorrow's lunch for insects or pests or disease. The other thing is that maybe that Fowler apple or maybe a variety of wheat that's not economical right now has disease or pest resistance or some quality that we're going to need for climate change that the others don't. So it's not necessary, thank God, that the Fowler apple is the best apple in the world. It's just necessary or interesting that it might have one good, unique trait. And for that reason, we ought to be saving it. Why? As a raw material, as a trait we can use in the future. Think of diversity as giving us options. And options, of course, are exactly what we need in an era of climate change.
我想这里我们学到了一课, 那就是:那为什么还挽救它? 我一直被问到这个问题。为什么我们不只留最好的? 对这个问题有几个答案。 一个就是,没有什么所谓最好的。 今天最好的品种就是明天害虫或疾病的午餐。 另外一个就是也许福勒苹果 或大麦的其它品种在今天没有价值 但未来可能有着别的品种没有的 对疾病害虫免疫或对气候变化的适应性的特性。 所以福勒苹果没有 必要是世界上最好的苹果,感谢上帝。 它也许包含一个好的,特殊的特性,这就值得引起我们的兴趣了。 就为这个原因,我们就应该挽救它。 为什么?作为一种原材料,一种我们在未来可以用到的特性。 把多样化看作是我们的选择。 这些选择,显然的,正是我们对气候变化所需要的。
I want to show you two slides, but first, I want to tell you that we've been working at the Global Crop Diversity Trust with a number of scientists -- particularly at Stanford and University of Washington -- to ask the question: What's going to happen to agriculture in an era of climate change and what kind of traits and characteristics do we need in our agricultural crops to be able to adapt to this? In short, the answer is that in the future, in many countries, the coldest growing seasons are going to be hotter than anything those crops have seen in the past. The coldest growing seasons of the future, hotter than the hottest of the past. Is agriculture adapted to that? I don't know. Can fish play the piano? If agriculture hasn't experienced that, how could it be adapted?
我想给你们看两个幻灯片, 但是,首先,我想告诉你们,我们已经在全球作物多样化信用机构工作, 和一些科学家在一起 -- 特别是斯坦福大学和华盛顿大学 -- 工作是问这个问题:在一个气候变化的年代农业会怎么样 以及我们农业需要什么样的特性和品种 来适应这个变化? 长话短说,答案就在未来,在许多国家里, 最冷的播种季节变的比 这些作物过去遇到的要更热了。 未来的最冷的播种季节, 要比过去最热的还要热。 农业能适应这个吗? 我不知道。鱼能弹钢琴吗? 如果农业没有经历过,怎么能够适应呢?
Now, the highest concentration of poor and hungry people in the world, and the place where climate change, ironically, is going to be the worst is in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. So I've picked two examples here, and I want to show you. In the histogram before you now, the blue bars represent the historical range of temperatures, going back about far as we have temperature data. And you can see that there's some difference between one growing season and another. Some are colder, some are hotter and it's a bell shaped curve. The tallest bar is the average temperature for the most number of growing seasons. In the future, later this century, it's going to look like the red, totally out of bounds. The agricultural system and, more importantly, the crops in the field in India have never experienced this before.
现在,世界上贫穷和饥饿最集中的人口, 已经那里有气候变化,讽刺的是,最坏会发生在 南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲。 所以我在这里挑选两个我想给你们看的例子。 现在在你面前的历史图表里, 蓝色的代表着历史上的气温范围, 纪录着我们有纪录以来的数据。 你可以看到在每一个播种季节间 都有一些不同。 有一些冷点,有一些热点,形成了一个钟形的曲线。 在平均气温里最高的是那些最多的播种季节。 在未来,这个世纪末期,就会像这个红色一样, 完全超出范围。 这个农业系统,最重要的是,在印度农田里的作物 从没有经历过这些。
Here's South Africa. The same story. But the most interesting thing about South Africa is we don't have to wait for 2070 for there to be trouble. By 2030, if the maize, or corn, varieties, which is the dominant crop -- 50 percent of the nutrition in Southern Africa are still in the field -- in 2030, we'll have a 30 percent decrease in production of maize because of the climate change already in 2030. 30 percent decrease of production in the context of increasing population, that's a food crisis. It's global in nature. We will watch children starve to death on TV. Now, you may say that 20 years is a long way off. It's two breeding cycles for maize. We have two rolls of the dice to get this right. We have to get climate-ready crops in the field, and we have to do that rather quickly.
这是南非,同样的情况。 但是关于南非有趣的事情是 我们不用等到2070年才会遇到这些问题。 在2030年,苞谷,或玉米,这些品种,这是主流作物 -- 南非50%的[不清楚] 还在田地里 -- 在2030年,我们将会遭遇玉米30%的减产 因为气候在2030年时已经变化了。 30%的粮食减产,就增长人口而言, 这是食物危机。是全球的自然问题。 我们将会在电视里看到儿童们饥饿而死。 现在,你也许可以说20年还早得很。 这也就是两个玉米育种周期。 我们有两轮得机会来赌一把。 我买必须让田地里得作物准备好气候得变化, 我们要快点做。
Now, the good news is that we have conserved. We have collected and conserved a great deal of biological diversity, agricultural diversity, mostly in the form of seed, and we put it in seed banks, which is a fancy way of saying a freezer. If you want to conserve seed for a long term and you want to make it available to plant breeders and researchers, you dry it and then you freeze it. Unfortunately, these seed banks are located around the world in buildings and they're vulnerable. Disasters have happened. In recent years we lost the gene bank, the seed bank in Iraq and Afghanistan. You can guess why. In Rwanda, in the Solomon Islands. And then there are just daily disasters that take place in these buildings, financial problems and mismanagement and equipment failures, and all kinds of things, and every time something like this happens, it means extinction. We lose diversity. And I'm not talking about losing diversity in the same way that you lose your car keys. I'm talking about losing it in the same way that we lost the dinosaurs: actually losing it, never to be seen again.
现在,好消息是我们已经开始储藏了。 我买已经开始收集和储藏了很多生物多样化的品种, 农业多样化的,大多数以种子的形态, 而且我买把它放到种子银行里,其实就是冷藏起来。 如果你想长时间储藏种子 而且你想让它可以种植和被研究, 你要凉干然后再冷藏。 不幸的是,这些种子药行就在世界各地的银行里 而且很容易出问题。 灾难时有发生。在最近几年里我买失去了基因银行, 和在伊拉克和阿富汗的种子银行。你们应该知道为什么。 在卢旺达,在所罗门群岛。 而就是这些日常灾难常常发生在只些建筑物里, 资金问题,管理问题和仪器故障, 各种各样的事情,像这样的事情每发生一次, 就意味着灭绝。我们在损失多样化。 我指的损失多样化可不像你们说的车钥匙丢了一样。 我指的损失就是像我们没有了恐龙一样, 真的没有了,再也看不见了。
So, a number of us got together and decided that, you know, enough is enough and we need to do something about that and we need to have a facility that can really offer protection for our biological diversity of -- maybe not the most charismatic diversity. You don't look in the eyes of a carrot seed quite in the way you do a panda bear, but it's very important diversity. So we needed a really safe place, and we went quite far north to find it. To Svalbard, in fact. This is above mainland Norway. You can see Greenland there. That's at 78 degrees north. It's as far as you can fly on a regularly scheduled airplane. It's a remarkably beautiful landscape. I can't even begin to describe it to you. It's otherworldly, beautiful. We worked with the Norwegian government and with the NorGen, the Norwegian Genetic Resources Program, to design this facility. What you see is an artist's conception of this facility, which is built in a mountain in Svalbard. The idea of Svalbard was that it's cold, so we get natural freezing temperatures. But it's remote. It's remote and accessible so it's safe and we don't depend on mechanical refrigeration.
所以,一群人聚在仪器,决定到,你知道,被逼上绝路了, 我买必须做些什么,我买有设备 那些设备可以为我们的生物多样化提供保护 -- 也许不是最有魅力的多样化。 你看待胡萝卜时和你看待熊猫时可能会不一样, 但是胡萝卜也是重要的多样化。 所以我们需要一个很安全的地方,而且我们在很南方找到了这个地方。 在斯瓦尔巴,实际上。 这是在挪威的上面。你在这里可以看到格陵兰岛。 这是在北纬78度。 这是你乘坐民用航空可以飞的最远的地方。 这是一个十分美丽的地方。不能用语言来描述。 鬼斧神工,真的很美。 我们和挪威政府和 挪威基因资源项目一起合作, 来设计这个设施。 你现在看到的时一个艺术家构想中的设施 建造在斯瓦尔巴山地。 因为斯瓦尔巴山地很冷, 所以我们就运用了自然的冷却温度。 但是这个地方很偏僻,偏僻但又可以进入 所以很安全,而且我们完全不依靠机械冷藏系统。
This is more than just an artist's dream, it's now a reality. And this next picture shows it in context, in Svalbard. And here's the front door of this facility. When you open up the front door, this is what you're looking at. It's pretty simple. It's a hole in the ground. It's a tunnel, and you go into the tunnel, chiseled in solid rock, about 130 meters. There are now a couple of security doors, so you won't see it quite like this. Again, when you get to the back, you get into an area that's really my favorite place. I think of it as sort of a cathedral. And I know that this tags me as a bit of a nerd, but ... (Laughter) Some of the happiest days of my life have been spent ... (Laughter) in this place there.
那不仅仅是一个艺术家的梦想,那是真的。 下副图片将会显示这个机构,在斯瓦尔巴。 这是这个设施的正门。 当你打开正门后 你会看到这个。十分简单。就是地下的一个洞。 这是一个通道,当你走进通道时, 开凿在岩石里,大概有130米。 那里有一些安检门,所以和你们看的有一点不同。 又一次,当你们进入到后面,你们就来到了我最喜欢的地方。 为什么?我想是因为这就像大教堂一样。 我想这个就有点可以把我定义为书呆子,但是... (笑) 我生命中最美好的几天 (笑) 就是在这里度过的。
(Applause)
(掌声)
If you were to walk into one of these rooms, you would see this. It's not very exciting, but if you know what's there, it's pretty emotional. We have now about 425,000 samples of unique crop varieties. There's 70,000 samples of different varieties of rice in this facility right now. About a year from now, we'll have over half a million samples. We're going up to over a million, and someday we'll basically have samples -- about 500 seeds -- of every variety of agricultural crop that can be stored in a frozen state in this facility. This is a backup system for world agriculture. It's a backup system for all the seed banks. Storage is free. It operates like a safety deposit box. Norway owns the mountain and the facility, but the depositors own the seed. And if anything happens, then they can come back and get it. This particular picture that you see shows the national collection of the United States, of Canada, and an international institution from Syria.
如果你走进这其中一个房间,你就会看到这个。 这不是很令人兴奋,但是如果你知道这是在哪里,这是很让人激动的。 我们现在又大概425,000 个不同的作物品种样品。 在这个机构里大概有70,000中 不同的大米品种样品。 在过大概一年,我们将会有超过50万的样品。 终究有一天我们会有超过100万的样品,我们的样品 -- 500类型的种子 -- 每一种农业作物的物种都可以被冷藏在这个 冰冻设备里。 这是我们农业系统的备份。 这是所有种子银行的一个备份。储存是免费。 这就像一个保险箱一样。 挪威拥有这个山和这个机构,但是存户是拥有种子。 而且如果发生了什么是,他们可以来这里那回种子。 这个图片给你们展示的是加拿大的国家收藏, 以及来自叙利亚的国际机构。
I think it's interesting in that this facility, I think, is almost the only thing I can think of these days where countries, literally, every country in the world -- because we have seeds from every country in the world -- all the countries of the world have gotten together to do something that's both long term, sustainable and positive. I can't think of anything else that's happened in my lifetime that way.
我想这在这个机构里是很有趣,我想, 在这几天里我唯一能想到的就是,这些国家, 真的,在这个世界上的每一个国家 -- 因为我们有从这个世界上每一个国家而来的种子 -- 世界上所有的国家都会聚在一起 去做既长期,可持续,和积极的一些事情。 在我一生中除了想这个在也想不到别的事情了。
I can't look you in the eyes and tell you that I have a solution for climate change, for the water crisis. Agriculture takes 70 percent of fresh water supplies on earth. I can't look you in the eyes and tell you that there is such a solution for those things, or the energy crisis, or world hunger, or peace in conflict. I can't look you in the eyes and tell you that I have a simple solution for that, but I can look you in the eyes and tell you that we can't solve any of those problems if we don't have crop diversity. Because I challenge you to think of an effective, efficient, sustainable solution to climate change if we don't have crop diversity. Because, quite literally, if agriculture doesn't adapt to climate change, neither will we. And if crops don't adapt to climate change, neither will agriculture, neither will we.
我不能看着你们的眼睛,然后告诉你们,我有一个 可以解决气候变化,和水资源危机的方法。 农业用去了地球上70%的新鲜水。 我不能看着你们的眼睛然后说到,这里有一个解决方法 可以解决这些事情,解决能源危机,或世界饥饿,或给冲突带来和平。 我不能看着你们的眼睛去告诉你们,我对这些有一个简单的解决方法, 但是,我可以看着你们的眼睛,告诉你们我们是不能解决这些问题的, 如果我们没有作物多样化。 因为我可以让你们想想一个有效,高效,可持续 的解决气候变化的方法,如果我们没有作物多样化。 因为,真的,如果农业无法适应气候变化, 我们也不能。 因为作物不能适应气候变化,农业就不能, 我们也不能。
So, this is not something pretty and nice to do. There are a lot of people who would love to have this diversity exist just for the existence value of it. It is, I agree, a nice thing to do. But it's a necessary thing to do. So, in a very real sense, I believe that we, as an international community, should get organized to complete the task. The Svalbard Global Seed Vault is a wonderful gift that Norway and others have given us, but it's not the complete answer. We need to collect the remaining diversity that's out there. We need to put it into good seed banks that can offer those seeds to researchers in the future. We need to catalog it. It's a library of life, but right now I would say we don't have a card catalog for it. And we need to support it financially.
所以,这里没有什么美好的事情去做。 有很多人希望能有这种多样化 就完全因为它存在的价值。 这就是,我承认,是一件非常美好的事情。 但是也是非常必须的事情。 所以,非常严肃的,我相信我们,作为一个国际集团, 应该组织好去完成这个任务。 斯瓦尔巴全球种子保鲜库是一个神奇的礼物 是挪威和其他国家给我们的, 但是这不是完整的答案。 我们需要去收集余下的多样化物种。 我们需要将他们放进好的种子银行中 一个可以在未来给研究者提供种子的银行中。 我们需要一个手册。这是生命的博物馆, 但是现在我必须说,我们还没有这个手册。 而且我们必须有资金上的支持。
My big idea would be that while we think of it as commonplace to endow an art museum or endow a chair at a university, we really ought to be thinking about endowing wheat. 30 million dollars in an endowment would take care of preserving all the diversity in wheat forever. So we need to be thinking a little bit in those terms.
我的大想法是,当我们把 重视艺术博物馆或重视大学作为十分平常的事情时, 我们也应该想想去重视小麦。 3千万美元就足以永远保证 所有的小麦多样化。 所以我们必须在这些方面想一想。
And my final thought is that we, of course, by conserving wheat, rice, potatoes, and the other crops, we may, quite simply, end up saving ourselves.
我想我最后想说的是,当然,通过保存小麦, 大米,土豆,和其他作物, 我们也许,十分简单的,也可以挽救我们自己。
Thank you.
谢谢。
(Applause)
(掌声)