I want to start off by saying, Houston, we have a problem. We're entering a second generation of no progress in terms of human flight in space. In fact, we've regressed. We stand a very big chance of losing our ability to inspire our youth to go out and continue this very important thing that we as a species have always done. And that is, instinctively we've gone out and climbed over difficult places, went to more hostile places, and found out later, maybe to our surprise, that that's the reason we survived. And I feel very strongly that it's not good enough for us to have generations of kids that think that it's OK to look forward to a better version of a cell phone with a video in it. They need to look forward to exploration; they need to look forward to colonization; they need to look forward to breakthroughs. We need to inspire them, because they need to lead us and help us survive in the future.
我要用一句話來開場「休士頓~我們有麻煩了」 我們已經沒有進展長達二十年了 針對人類的太空飛行而言,事實上我們倒退了 我們正承受著遺失去啟發年輕人改變的能力 去做和延續這些重要的事情 而這是人類一直在進行的事情 而這正是我們逐漸消失的本能 像是登上困難的高峰、到達人煙罕至的地方 後來不經意的察覺,這些是為什麼我們存活的原因 我非常強烈的感覺 這對我們的下一代來說是非常的不足 對於期待著進步是一件好事 像手機可以有影像的功能 他們必須要去探索,必須要往前去開拓 他們必須往前去突破,他們必須這麼做 我們應該要去啟發他們,因為將來的世界將由他們主導 來幫助我們在未來存活
I'm particularly troubled that what NASA's doing right now with this new Bush doctrine to -- for this next decade and a half -- oh shoot, I screwed up. We have real specific instructions here not to talk about politics.
我特別感到困擾的就是美國太空總署(NASA)現在執行的布希政策 在未來的十~十五年 -- 哎呀~我搞砸了 我們這裏有幾個特別指示,不可以談到政治
(Laughter)
笑聲
What we're looking forward to is --
我們真正希望前往的未來是 --
(Applause)
掌聲
what we're looking forward to is not only the inspiration of our children, but the current plan right now is not really even allowing the most creative people in this country -- the Boeing's and Lockheed's space engineers -- to go out and take risks and try new stuff. We're going to go back to the moon ... 50 years later? And we're going to do it very specifically planned to not learn anything new. I'm really troubled by that. But anyway that's -- the basis of the thing that I want to share with you today, though, is that right back to where we inspire people who will be our great leaders later. That's the theme of my next 15 minutes here. And I think that the inspiration begins when you're very young: three-year-olds, up to 12-, 14-year-olds. What they look at is the most important thing.
我們所要的未來是 不只是啟發我們的孩子 不過現在的規劃甚至不允許我們這麼做 國內最具有創意的那群人 -- 波音公司與洛克希德公司 太空工程師們去冒險、嘗試新的東西 我們將回到月球 -- 五十年後 而且我們非常確切的計畫著不學習任何新事物 我非常的被這樣的狀況所困擾,不管怎麼說 這基本的事情跟我今天所要與各位分享的有關 就是回到該怎麼去啟發人們 那些將來會成為我們偉大領袖的人 那正是在未來的十五分鐘,我所要講的主題 而我想這些啟發開始於各位年紀非常小的時候 三歲直到12~14歲 什麼是我們 -- 什麼是他們認為最重要的事
Let's take a snapshot at aviation. And there was a wonderful little short four-year time period when marvelous things happened. It started in 1908, when the Wright brothers flew in Paris, and everybody said, "Ooh, hey, I can do that." There's only a few people that have flown in early 1908. In four years, 39 countries had hundreds of airplanes, thousand of pilots. Airplanes were invented by natural selection. Now you can say that intelligent design designs our airplanes of today, but there was no intelligent design really designing those early airplanes. There were probably at least 30,000 different things tried, and when they crash and kill the pilot, don't try that again. The ones that flew and landed OK because there were no trained pilots who had good flying qualities by definition. So we, by making a whole bunch of attempts, thousands of attempts, in that four-year time period, we invented the concepts of the airplanes that we fly today. And that's why they're so safe, as we gave it a lot of chance to find what's good. That has not happened at all in space flying. There's only been two concepts tried -- two by the U.S. and one by the Russians.
讓我們回顧一下飛行的歷史 有一個美妙的四年階段 當不可思議的事件發生 一切開始於1908年,當萊特兄弟飛到巴黎 很多人說:「喔~嘿!我也可以這樣做」,當時只有少數一些人真的飛行過 在1908年早期,過了四年之後,有39個國家擁有上百架的飛機 上千位的飛行員,多種飛機被一般大眾設計出來 現在各位可以說今天的飛機都是由專精的設計師所為 但是沒有一個專精的設計師去設計那些早期的飛機 可能有三萬件不同的事件被嘗試出來 而當他們的飛機墜毀、飛行員喪生,就停止再用那個東西 如果有一架飛機可以飛行、降落就是OK的 因為當時也沒有受過訓練的飛行員 可以被定位為擁有良好的飛行的技術 因此我們藉由千百次的嘗試 在四年的時間裡,我們發明了飛機概念 就是我們現在飛機,這也說明了他為什麼這麼的安全 因此我們一直不斷的修改,以尋找出什麼事最好的 太空飛行領域上還沒看到這樣的嘗試 只有兩個概念被嘗試 -- 美國做了兩個、前蘇聯做了一個
Well, who was inspired during that time period? Aviation Week asked me to make a list of who I thought were the movers and shakers of the first 100 years of aviation. And I wrote them down and I found out later that every one of them was a little kid in that wonderful renaissance of aviation. Well, what happened when I was a little kid was -- some pretty heavy stuff too. The jet age started: the missile age started. Von Braun was on there showing how to go to Mars -- and this was before Sputnik. And this was at a time when Mars was a hell of a lot more interesting than it is now. We thought there'd be animals there; we knew there were plants there; the colors change, right? But, you know, NASA screwed that up because they've sent these robots and they've landed it only in the deserts.
那麼~什麼人在那時被啟發了呢? 飛行週刊雜誌請我列出一個表 在100年的飛行歷史中舉足輕重的事件 我把心目中的列表,後來我發現它們每一個 都有點像是飛行史上的文藝復興 當我還是個小孩的時候有件非常重要的事情發生了 噴射機時代的來臨,飛彈時代的來臨,馮布朗(Von Braun)在那時代 展示出怎麼樣可以去火星 -- 而當時史波尼克衛星(Sputnik)尚未發明 跟現在相比火星在當時是多麼的引起大家的興趣 我們當時還相信那兒有生物 我們知道那兒有植物,因為顏色會改變。對吧? 不過你知道太空總署(NASA)搞砸了,因為他們現在送去的機器人 而他們卻只降落在沙漠地區
(Laughter)
笑聲
If you look at what happened -- this little black line is as fast as man ever flew, and the red line is top-of-the-line military fighters and the blue line is commercial air transport. You notice here's a big jump when I was a little kid -- and I think that had something to do with giving me the courage to go out and try something that other people weren't having the courage to try. Well, what did I do when I was a kid? I didn't do the hotrods and the girls and the dancing and, well, we didn't have drugs in those days. But I did competition model airplanes. I spent about seven years during the Vietnam War flight-testing airplanes for the Air Force. And then I went in and I had a lot of fun building airplanes that people could build in their garages. And some 3,000 of those are flying. Of course, one of them is around the world Voyager. I founded another company in '82, which is my company now. And we have developed more than one new type of airplane every year since 1982. And there's a lot of them that I actually can't show you on this chart.
如果你注意著過去發生的事情 -- 這條小黑線是過去飛得最快的人 這條紅線是軍隊裡飛得最快的戰鬥飛行員 藍線代表了商業飛行的交通工具 你會注意到這個劇烈的變化,當我還是個小孩 我想:如果有什麼事情給了我勇氣 讓我去外面嘗試新事物而其他的小孩沒有勇氣去試 那麼我小時候都在做什麼呢? 我沒有去玩車和女孩鬼混以及去跳舞 此外,我們那個年代也沒禁藥。我參加了模型飛機的比賽 越戰時期我花了將近七年 為空軍測試各式飛機 然後我開始讓我得到許多樂趣的打造飛機的事業 開始試那種在家裏的車庫就可以建造的那種 現在有三千架還在飛行。當然,還包括了 環遊世界不加油的航行者號(Voyager)在1982年我成立了另一家公司 也是我現在的公司 自從1982年開始我們每年都推出新的飛機設計 有很多的飛機我無法在這張圖上面介紹給大家
The most impressive airplane ever, I believe, was designed only a dozen years after the first operational jet. Stayed in service till it was too rusty to fly, taken out of service. We retreated in '98 back to something that was developed in '56. What? The most impressive spaceship ever, I believe, was a Grumman Lunar Lander. It was a -- you know, it landed on the moon, take off of the moon, didn't need any maintenance guys -- that's kind of cool. We've lost that capability. We abandoned it in '72. This thing was designed three years after Gagarin first flew in space in 1961. Three years, and we can't do that now. Crazy.
最令人讚賞的飛機設計,我相信是在大約 噴射機成功後的十二年之間做出來的 一直服役到它實在生鏽得太厲害才退休 我們從1998年到退到1956年所發展的技術是怎麼了? 最傑出的太空船,我相信是 格魯曼(Grumman)公司所做的登月小艇,他曾經 --你知道的降落在月球上 無需地勤人員的協助再從月球起飛 我覺得很酷 我們已經喪失了這樣的能力,在1972年代我們就放棄了 這是在前蘇聯太空人加加林(Yuri Gagrin)1961年第一次飛上太空後三年內設計出來的 三年,而我們現在做不到
Talk very briefly about innovation cycles, things that grow, have a lot of activity; they die out when they're replaced by something else. These things tend to happen every 25 years. 40 years long, with an overlap. You can put that statement on all kinds of different technologies. The interesting thing -- by the way, the speed here, excuse me, higher-speed travel is the title of these innovation cycles. There is none here. These two new airplanes are the same speed as the DC8 that was done in 1958. Here's the biggie, and that is, you don't have innovation cycles if the government develops and the government uses it. You know, a good example, of course, is the DARPA net. Computers were used for artillery first, then IRS. But when we got it, now you have all the level of activity, all the benefit from it. Private sector has to do it. Keep that in mind. I put down innovation -- I've looked for innovation cycles in space; I found none.
世代發展有許多的活動產生,但談到創新的這一部分,已經被其他東西取代了。 這樣的事情每二十五年發生一次 四十年很長,就算是有重疊,你可以把這樣的陳述 放在其他任何一個科技,有趣的是 順便提一下,這速度~對不起,更高速的旅行 在這些創新的區塊裏,根本就不存在 這兩架飛機根本上與在1958年完成的DC8有著同樣的速度 這有件大事 這就是說你根本不需要創新的區塊 如果政府開發和政府使用他 你知道,一個很好的例子,當然就是DARPA網 電腦當初是先設計給火砲,後來IRS 當我們拿到他的時候,你現在可以把它應用在各種活動上 所有的好處,將他用在私人用途 請你記住,我把創新提出來 我希望太空有創新的東西,而我卻找不到 在最初的一年,當加加林進入太空
The very first year, starting when Gagarin went in space, and a few weeks later Alan Shepherd, there were five manned space flights in the world -- the very first year. In 2003, everyone that the United States sent to space was killed. There were only three or four flights in 2003. In 2004, there were only two flights: two Russian Soyuz flights to the international manned station. And I had to fly three in Mojave with my little group of a couple dozen people in order to get to a total of five, which was the number the same year back in 1961. There is no growth. There's no activity. There's no nothing.
幾個禮拜後艾倫●薛菲爾德,那兒有五艘由人操控的 太空船在世界上,在最初的那一年 在2003由美國政府送上太空的幾位太空人殉職了 2003只有三、四趟太空飛行 在2004只有兩次太空飛行,兩次蘇俄Soyuz太空任務 飛行到國際太空站,而我在Mojave沙漠飛行了三次 跟我那十幾個人的小團隊 只要達成五次 那就跟1691年太空飛行的總數相當 這根本沒長進,根本沒有活動,根本什麼都沒有 這張照片是從SpaceShipOne號上拍攝的
This is a picture here taken from SpaceShipOne. This is a picture here taken from orbit. Our goal is to make it so that you can see this picture and really enjoy that. We know how to do it for sub-orbital flying now, do it safe enough -- at least as safe as the early airlines -- so that can be done. And I think I want to talk a little bit about why we had the courage to go out and try that as a small company.
這照片拍攝的地點在地球軌道上 我們的目標是讓大家可以看到這樣的照片並且喜愛他 我們現在知道如何安全的做次軌道飛行 最起碼跟最初的民航機一樣安全,而這些已經完成 我想聊一下有關我們之所有會有這樣的勇氣 雖然我們只是一家小公司,卻勇於嘗試 首先,想到將來會發生什麼事?
Well, first of all, what's going to happen next? The first industry will be a high volume, a lot of players. There's another one announced just last week. And it will be sub-orbital. And the reason it has to be sub-orbital is, there is not solutions for adequate safety to fly the public to orbit. The governments have been doing this -- three governments have been doing this for 45 years, and still four percent of the people that have left the atmosphere have died. That's -- You don't want to run a business with that kind of a safety record. It'll be very high volume; we think 100,000 people will fly by 2020. I can't tell you when this will start, because I don't want my competition to know my schedule. But I think once it does, we will find solutions, and very quickly, you'll see those resort hotels in orbit. And that real easy thing to do, which is a swing around the moon so you have this cool view. And that will be really cool. Because the moon doesn't have an atmosphere -- you can do an elliptical orbit and miss it by 10 feet if you want. Oh, it's going to be so much fun.
快速的工業化,很多的競爭者 上週已經有另一家公司宣布他們也可以做到 將會是次軌道飛行,之所以是次軌道飛行 是因為現在還沒有安全的配套 將大眾飛行到軌道上面,而政府已經這麼做 三個國家的政府已經這樣做了45五年了 仍然有百分之四的人,在太空喪命 當然,你不會以這樣的風險來經營你的事業 將來會有大量的人飛行,我想在2020年約有十萬人次 我不能告訴你什麼時候會開始 因為我不願意讓我的競爭對手知道我的排程 不過我想一旦成形,我們會提出解決方案 而且非常快速的,你會看到軌道上的休閒旅館 而去月球繞一圈則是非常容易做的事情。 如果你也有這樣酷的眼界,那就真的太好了 因為在月球上並沒有大氣層 你可以做誤差約十英呎的橢圓軌道飛行 喔~那會是多麼的好玩 笑聲
(Laughter)
好啦~批評我的人說:「嘿,魯坦你就花這些」
OK. My critics say, "Hey, Rutan's just spending a lot of these billionaires' money for joyrides for billionaires. What's this? This is not a transportation system; it's just for fun." And I used to be bothered by that, and then I got to thinking, well, wait a minute. I bought my first Apple computer in 1978 and I bought it because I could say, "I got a computer at my house and you don't. 'What do you use it for?' Come over. It does Frogger." OK.
「億萬富翁的錢,幫他們弄個億萬富翁之旅好了」 「這是什麼東西,這不是交通工具,這只是個玩具」 我以前非常受這個困擾,後來我開始想 等等,我在1978年買了我第一台蘋果電腦 而我買的原因是因為我可以說:「我家有一台電腦,你卻沒有」 「你能拿它用來幹嘛」?「過來嘛,它可以玩青蛙過街」好嗎 笑聲
(Laughter)
不是那個銀行的電腦或者是洛克希德公司的電腦
Not the bank's computer or Lockheed's computer, but the home computer was for games. For a whole decade it was for fun -- we didn't even know what it was for. But what happened, the fact that we had this big industry, big development, big improvement and capability and so on, and they get out there in enough homes -- we were ripe for a new invention. And the inventor is in this audience. Al Gore invented the Internet and because of that, something that we used for a whole year -- excuse me -- a whole decade for fun, became everything -- our commerce, our research, our communication and, if we let the Google guys think for another couple weekends, we can add a dozen more things to the list. (Laughter) And it won't be very long before you won't be able to convince kids that we didn't always have computers in our homes. So fun is defendable.
家庭的電腦是要拿來玩遊戲的 十幾年來它都是為了娛樂 -- 我們甚至不知道要拿它來做什麼? 不過後來發生的事情,事實上我們創造了這龐大的工業 大研發、大進步和能力的大提昇...等等 我們將這樣的創新放進了很多人的家裡 發明家可能就在現場聽眾裏 愛爾●高爾(Al Gore)因此而發明了網際網路 什麼 -- 我們整年都在使用的東西 -- 對不起 一整個十年我們都在玩樂,成了任何事情 -- 我們的商業、我們的研發 我們的通訊,如果我們讓Google那些人 想上幾個週末,我們可能要在剛才的清單上多加上幾項 不用太久的時間,你就不太能說服你的孩子 我們家裡不一定要有電腦 這麼好玩的東西值得我們力爭 好啦,我來給大家看一張複雜的圖
OK, I want to show you kind of a busy chart, but in it is my prediction with what's going to happen. And in it also brings up another point, right here. There's a group of people that have come forward -- and you don't know all of them -- but the ones that have come forward were inspired as young children, this little three- to 15-year-old age, by us going to orbit and going to the moon here, right in this time period. Paul Allen, Elan Musk, Richard Branson, Jeff Bezos, the Ansari family, which is now funding the Russians' sub-orbital thing, Bob Bigelow, a private space station, and Carmack. These people are taking money and putting it in an interesting area, and I think it's a lot better than they put it in an area of a better cell phone or something -- but they're putting it in very -- areas and this will lead us into this kind of capability, and it will lead us into the next really big thing and it will allow us to explore. And I think eventually it will allow us to colonize and to keep us from going extinct.
在我的預測中會發生的事情 也在此提出了另一個思考 有一群人走向前來 你不一定全認識,不過那走向前來的 是受到啟發的孩子,從3歲到15歲 跟著我們去軌道和去月球 在同一個時代 保羅●艾倫、艾倫●莫斯克、李察●布蘭森、傑夫●貝周斯 安薩里家族現在正贊助俄國的次軌道計畫 包伯●畢吉羅一個私人的太空站和卡麥克 這些人把他們的錢放在一個有趣的地方 而我覺得真的比他們放在其他 像是更好的行動電話還是什麼的好 -- 但是他們放得很不明顯 而這讓我們有了不同的能力 這將會引領我們來到下一件大事情 它將讓我們可以探索,而我認為這是一定會發生的 它會讓我們有能力去別的地方建立殖民地而不致於絕滅 他們這些人都被大事情啟發,那我們來看看這些發展的後續
They were inspired by big progress. But look at the progress that's going on after that. There were a couple of examples here. The military fighters had a -- highest-performance military airplane was the SR71. It went a whole life cycle, got too rusty to fly, and was taken out of service. The Concorde doubled the speed for airline travel. It went a whole life cycle without competition, took out of service. And we're stuck back here with the same kind of capability for military fighters and commercial airline travel that we had back in the late '50s.
這裏有幾個例子 軍方的戰鬥機飛行員有最高性能的戰機 像SR71它已經壽終正寢銹得太厲害而停飛 因此從軍隊設備終退役了,協和號商用飛機縮短了飛航時間的一半 它沒有任何競爭的飛到了壽命到期 停飛了,然後我們就卡在這裏 擁有這樣能力的軍用飛機 這樣優秀的商用飛機是從50年代末期就有了 但是有什麼事情啟發了現在的小孩呢
But something is out there to inspire our kids now. And I'm talking about if you've got a baby now, or if you've got a 10-year-old now. What's out there is there's something really interesting going to happen here. Relatively soon, you'll be able to buy a ticket and fly higher and faster than the highest-performance military operational airplane. It's never happened before. The fact that they have stuck here with this kind of performance has been, well, you know, you win the war in 12 minutes; why do you need something better? But I think when you guys start buying tickets and flying sub-orbital flights to space, very soon -- wait a minute, what's happening here, we'll have military fighters with sub-orbital capability, and I think very soon this. But the interesting thing about it is the commercial guys are going to go first. OK, I look forward to a new "capitalist's space race," let's call it.
我在說如果現在你懷孕呢 如果你有個十歲大的小孩 外界到底有什麼有趣的大事情發生在他們周圍 不久的將來,你將可以買張票 飛得比軍用戰鬥機更高更快 這是以前從沒發生過的事情 事實上是他們在那樣的性能就停止發展 既然在12分鐘之內就可以打贏戰爭 那你為什麼還需要更好的呢? 不過我認為很快的人們會開始買票飛行 次軌道的太空之旅 -- 等等 發生了什麼事情,我們軍用戰鬥機 有次軌道的能力嗎?我相信很快就會有了 不過有趣的事情是商用的飛行器將先具有這樣的能力 好吧~我期待一個...我們叫他 -- 新的太空競賽吧 你記得在六零年代,太空競賽是國家的尊嚴
You remember the space race in the '60s was for national prestige, because we lost the first two milestones. We didn't lose them technically. The fact that we had the hardware to put something in orbit when we let Von Braun fly it -- you can argue that's not a technical loss. Sputnik wasn't a technical loss, but it was a prestige loss. America -- the world saw America as not being the leader in technology, and that was a very strong thing. And then we flew Alan Shepherd weeks after Gagarin, not months or decades, or whatever. So we had the capability. But America lost. We lost. And because of that, we made a big jump to recover it.
因為我們並沒拿下第一、第二個里程碑 在科技上我們並不輸他們,事實上我們也擁有硬體 當馮●布朗試飛時就可以放東西在軌道上 你可以爭辯那不是科技上輸人 史波尼克衛星並不試科技上的挫敗,而是尊嚴上的失敗 美國 -- 世界不認為美國是科技上的領導者 而那是非常強烈的指控 後來我們讓艾倫●薛菲爾德落後加加林幾週後飛上天 不是幾個月或是幾十年後,所以我們有那個能力 不過美國輸了,我們輸了,因為如此我們大幅躍進去彌補 再一次,這有趣的地方是我們輸了
Well, again, what's interesting here is we've lost to the Russians on the first couple of milestones already. You cannot buy a ticket commercially to fly into space in America -- can't do it. You can buy it in Russia. You can fly with Russian hardware. This is available because a Russian space program is starving, and it's nice for them to get 20 million here and there to take one of the seats. It's commercial. It can be defined as space tourism. They are also offering a trip to go on this whip around the moon, like Apollo 8 was done. 100 million bucks -- hey, I can go to the moon. But, you know, would you have thought back in the '60s, when the space race was going on, that the first commercial capitalist-like thing to do to buy a ticket to go to the moon would be in Russian hardware? And would you have thought, would the Russians have thought, that when they first go to the moon in their developed hardware, the guys inside won't be Russians? Maybe it'll probably be a Japanese or an American billionaire? Well, that's weird: you know, it really is. But anyway, I think we need to beat them again.
輸給俄國前幾個里程碑 你不能在美國買到商業的太空飛行 做不到,你可以在俄國買到 你可以利用俄國的硬體飛行,它已經可以取得了 因為俄國的太空計劃非常缺乏經費 一個座位可以賣兩千萬美金對他們來說還真不錯 這是商業化,可以被定義為太空旅遊,他們甚至還有旅遊規劃 可以去月球繞一圈,就像是阿波羅八號曾經做的 一億美金,嘿~我可以去月球 不過,你如果在六零年代就想到這個 當太空競賽還正進行當中 這商業化的太空飛行 買張票去月球會是用俄國的硬體嗎? 你會想到嗎,俄國人會想到嗎 利用他們開發的硬體第一個到月球的 在太空船裏的不是俄國人,可能會是日本人 或者是美國的富豪?這真的很怪,知道嗎?那真的是 我認為我們應該要再一次贏過他們 我相信我們所做的會成功,非常成功
I think what we'll do is we'll see a successful, very successful, private space flight industry. Whether we're first or not really doesn't matter. The Russians actually flew a supersonic transport before the Concorde. And then they flew a few cargo flights, and took it out of service. I think you kind of see the same kind of parallel when the commercial stuff is offered.
私人的太空飛行工業,我們是不是第一個並不重要 俄國人事實上比協和式客機更早做出超音速客機 後來他們又飛了幾次運送貨物,而後將他退役 我想你也可以看得到這平行發展 如果商業飛行也可以提供服務 我們只略微談到人類商業太空飛行的發展
OK, we'll talk just a little bit about commercial development for human space flight. This little thing says here: five times what NASA's doing by 2020. I want to tell you, already there's about 1.5 billion to 1.7 billion investment in private space flight that is not government at all -- already, worldwide. If you read -- if you Google it, you'll find about half of that money, but there's twice of that being committed out there -- not spent yet, but being committed and planned for the next few years. Hey, that's pretty big. I'm predicting, though, as profitable as this industry is going to be -- and it certainly is profitable when you fly people at 200,000 dollars on something that you can actually operate at a tenth of that cost, or less -- this is going to be very profitable. I predict, also, that the investment that will flow into this will be somewhere around half of what the U.S. taxpayer spends for NASA's manned spacecraft work. And every dollar that flows into that will be spent more efficiently by a factor of 10 to 15. And what that means is before we know it, the progress in human space flight, with no taxpayer dollars, will be at a level of about five times as much as the current NASA budgets for human space flight. And that is because it's us. It's private industry. You should never depend on the government to do this sort of stuff -- and we've done it for a long time. The NACA, before NASA, never developed an airliner and never ran an airline. But NASA is developing the space liner, always has, and runs the only space line, OK. And we've shied away from it because we're afraid of it. But starting back in June of 2004, when I showed that a little group out there actually can do it, can get a start with it, everything changed after that time.
這張投影片說飛了五次 我已經告訴你太空總署2020年將做的 那將是10.5億到10.7億 對於私人太空計劃的投資,卻不跟政府有任何相關 發生在全球,如果你閱讀 -- 如果你在網路上搜尋 你可以找到大約一半的經費,但是那只有一半 已經投入發展的,雖然還沒花到這麼多,但已經投入 而且在未來幾年繼續發展,嘿~這很龐大 我推測,這個工業將獲利豐厚 當你用每個人二十萬美元飛行將是非常有利潤的 事實上你可以控制在十分之一的費用來經營 甚至更少 -- 這將會非常有獲利空間 我推測,這些投資也同樣的會受益 將會比美國納稅人所付的約一半的費用 相較於美國太空總署花在他們的太空計劃 每一分錢會使得這個計畫更有效率的運作 大約相差10到15,這意味著在我們事前就知道 沒有納稅人的錢,我們載人太空計劃 將多出五倍的人數 比較起太空總署當前預算所飛行的人數 那是因為我們私人的企業 你不應該依賴政府幫你做這一類的事情 我們會長久經營,在NACA之前的NASA 從來沒有規劃過要做商業的機隊,也從未想要一個機隊 不過NASA開發了太空的貨機,他們一向如此 而且只經營太空貨機,好嗎,我們就避開吧 因為我們很怕這個,不過在2004年的六月 我展示一個小組實際上可以做得到 可以開始這麼做,所有的事情都在那一刻改變了 好啦~非常謝謝大家
OK, thank you very much.
掌聲
(Applause)