So I am here ... to recruit you ... to the liberation movement. Now don't worry, this is not the uniform that you have to wear.
我來到這裡…… 是要招募各位…… 參加解放運動。 別擔心,這不是你們的制服,
(Laughter)
( 笑聲 )
You can come as yourself.
你想穿什麼都可以。
So you're probably wondering, "Well, what are we being liberated from?" We are being liberated from the endless weight of data. It keeps us bound ... so that we can't move into the future, because we're so busy being tied to the past.
各位現在大概在想:「所以,是要 把我們從什麼解放出來?」 我們的解放,是要脫離 無止盡的過往數據。 它將我們束縛住…… 所以我們才無法向未來邁進, 因為我們總是被過去綑綁。
So how do we get free? The freedom comes from our intuition. The thing that's right here, you know, that you can't really quite quantify. Sometimes, you can't even really describe it. That intuition, that's the thing.
我們要怎麼得到自由? 自由來自我們的直覺。 直覺就在這裡。 直覺是不太能量化的。 有時,甚至無法確切形容它。 直覺, 就是你所擁有的擅長的事。
Now I'm fortunate to have had a career in marketing, where data and intuition and creative ideas are sort of intertwined. But at the beginning of my career, I had a boss who told me that the data was going to be extraordinarily important to the success of my ideas. Right? Anchor the idea in the data, you can predict whether or not it's going to work, and then you can see if it actually did work, and vice versa. Well, I mean, look, I took that advice. I baked a lot my ideas right there in the data. I was inspired, sometimes. I'd see a pattern of something moving, and I would say, "Look, I can follow that! Maybe it'll work."
我很幸運, 曾經從事行銷相關工作, 在這個領域, 資料、直覺,以及創意點子 可說是密切相關的。 但在我的職涯初期, 我老闆告訴我 「如果想讓你的想法成功地被呈現, 數據就是功不可沒的角色。 對吧? 」 將點子套進數據, 就可以預測它會不會成功, 接著就可以確認是否可行, 反之亦然。 嗯…… 我當時照著他的建議去做。 我參考數據產出許多點子。 有時,我會因此而激發出靈感。 且能夠看出某種模式, 然後我會說: 「看! 我可以依循那個模式! 或許那會使我成功。」
But the challenge was that my ideas stopped right there. They didn't really take flight. Because, you know, the ideas are based off of electricity, you know? Ideas, like, come sharp. They sprint here, and they go here, and they move there. They're nonlinear. I kind of feel like they're like daydreams. You know? Intuition gets you there. It feels like something that is just on the horizon. And then, sometimes, it comes into sharp focus. You wake up and you remember exactly what it was. That's what ideas feel like. And your intuition is actually what helps you get there. It takes it from something that is so practical to something that is magical.
但難題在於, 我的點子就被侷限在那兒了。 它們沒有起飛。 因為想法總是靈光一閃, 你知道嗎? 想法總是石破天驚。 它們突然出現,然後跳耀, 又隨即轉向。 這就是非線性思維。 我覺得它們就像白日夢。 你知道嗎? 直覺幫助你想像。 讓你更輕易達成目標。 然而, 有時直覺會使事情變得更加明確。 當你起床時, 你依然會明確記得那是什麼。 那就是所謂的點子。 實際上, 是你的直覺帶你走向成功。 直覺使你從實際的例子, 發想出奇妙的事情。
Now, I'm also very, very, very grateful for a boss I had early on, who affirmed my intuition. I worked for Spike Lee at his advertising agency. This was in the early 2000s. And at the time, Pepsi had commissioned him to create a commercial for a campaign that they were trying to run on the main brand. Spike asked everybody in the office to come up with some thoughts on what the talent could be that would star in the commercial. And at the time, I was an assistant account executive. There were people who were much more senior than I, who knew exactly what they were doing, who had come up with a bunch of great ideas. They went to the data. They went to the Billboard charts to look at who was at the top. They went to album sales to see who was selling, who the public really loved. They looked at lists that experts had put together. Who's at the top? Who's really going to win? Who has longevity? Well, I didn't really understand any of that data.
現在, 我十分感謝我之前的老闆, 相信我的直覺。 我在史派克李的廣告公司工作。 它發跡於2000年初期。 當時, 百事可樂委託他, 為他們的活動製作廣告, 這支廣告是為了, 讓他們運用在主品牌上。 史派克要求辦公室每個人一起發想, 能夠使百事可樂的潛能, 在廣告中被大眾所知。 當時, 我只是個業務助理。 公司裡有許多比我資歷更深的前輩們, 他們清楚地知道自己該做什麼, 他們想了一堆很棒的點子。 他們參考數據。 他們參考美國告示牌單曲榜, 以得知誰近期名列前茅。 他們還查看專輯銷售量, 以得知誰買榜, 或誰才是大眾真正喜歡的。 他們查看專家們匯總出的名單。 誰是最頂尖的? 誰真正會贏? 誰會長久受到大眾歡迎? 然而,關於任何數據, 我都不清楚。
(Laughs)
(笑聲)
I could look at it, but I didn't really trust myself to interpret it. So I went to the thing I did know, which is MTV.
我也可以查看那些資料, 但我沒有, 因為我不相信我自己能夠解讀它。 所以我改找我以前就知道的東西, 那便是全球音樂電視台。
(Laughs)
(笑聲)
There had been a made-for-TV movie called "Carmen: A Hip Hopera," on MTV. I loved it. It starred Beyoncé. Now I thought it was magical, because, I mean, who the hell puts hip-hop and opera together? It's fascinating. So, I put my vote on Beyoncé.
有一部為了電視節目而製作的電影, 名為天命真女之卡門, 在MTV上能夠搜尋到。 我愛那部電影。 碧昂絲有出演那部電影。 直到現在, 我仍認為那是奇蹟, 我的意思是, 誰能夠想到將嘻哈音樂與歌劇結合。 那真的十分有趣。 所以,我便提議邀請碧昂絲。
Now of course, today, everybody would be like, "Well, of course, that makes so much sense, why wouldn't you? Bet on her. Yeah, she's a winner." But at the time, the data would tell us differently. No, there are not a lot of solo artists that come out of girl groups and are successful. In my opinion, there is only one.
現今,理所當然的, 每個人都會像這樣, 「當然,那是十分合理的, 你怎麼會不認同? 賭在她身上,她就是贏家」 但當時, 我們可能會從那些資料得出不同結論。 當時並沒有很多歌手, 脫離女子團體單飛, 又很成功。 在我看來, 只有一個人符合以上條件。
(Laughs)
(笑聲)
Diana Ross. Yeah, the one.
黛安娜・羅絲 是的,她就是那個成功的女歌手。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
Beyoncé is another. So at the time, nobody was betting on her. But I'm so grateful that Spike ... affirmed my intuition and also followed his. And I would say, today, that we’re pretty successful.
碧昂絲則是另外一個。 但當時,沒有人願意相信她的潛能。 但我很感激史派克...... 他認可我的直覺, 並跟隨他的直覺。 今天,我可能會說, 我們真的十分成功。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
Now, 20 years later, I still use my intuition, daily. I'm the chief marketing officer at Netflix. You'd probably say that maybe the stakes weren't as high when I was an assistant account executive, so I could use my intuition, and who cared. And maybe today, that's different. It’s not. Every day, I am charged with looking at campaigns that are 15 seconds long, 60 seconds long, 90 seconds long, that will encourage you to watch something that's much longer. Every day. And so I have to use my intuition to understand whether or not something is going to make you cry immediately, is it going to make you laugh immediately, is it going to scare you? Is it going to inspire you? And I feel like if I feel that ... then perhaps you do too.
現在,20年過去了, 我仍然相信我的直覺,每天。 我現在是網飛的行銷長。 你可能會說, 也許當時是因為我只是個業務助理, 所以風險才沒那麼大, 因此我才能用我的直覺, 而且誰會在意。 現在或許不同了。 完全不同。 每天,我都得負責發想活動, 有的時長為15秒,60秒或90秒, 那將會促使你去看時長更長的影片。 每一天。 就像是我得用我的直覺來了解, 某些影片會不會讓你馬上落淚。 或者那些影片會不會讓你立刻笑出來, 又或是某些影片會不會嚇到你? 或是否振奮你心? 如果我感受到這些情緒..... 那麼你可能會跟我一樣感同身受。
Now I'm not the only one. There are other people who do this. One is over 100 years ago, Henry Ford. He's attributed with saying that if he had asked people, at the time when he was inventing the Model T, if they wanted something like that,
如今, 我不是唯一一個做這件工作的人。 在這裡, 有許多人跟我一起完成這項任務。 其中一位, 就是約略百年前的亨利・福特。 他認為如果問人們, 有關於那時, 他研發出的福特T型車, 問他們是否想要有類似的交通工具,
(Laughs)
(笑聲)
they would have said they wanted faster horses ... instead of this new invention. I think that's pretty powerful. Or you can look at today. A more recent example, Ed Bastian and the team at Delta, you know, based on intuition, I believe, decided that after the restrictions of leaving that middle seat open so that those who are flying would feel safer, with some distance in-between them, that after those restrictions were lifted, they still kept that middle seat open. Now I'm sure they were losing millions of dollars every day with that decision, but the intuition was right. Do you feel safer? Do I feel safer? What would make us feel safer? I think that's the right thing.
他們反而可能會說, 他們想要更快的馬匹就好...... 而不是他所研發出的新產品。 我認為直覺十分有影響力。 或者你可以參考最近發生的事情。 舉一個近期的例子, 艾德·巴斯蒂安及達美航空團隊, 你知道的, 根據直覺,我相信, 在決定中間座位需閒置後, 搭機乘客們搭乘飛機時, 可能會更有安全感, 因為人與人之間都有距離隔開彼此, 當限制被取消後, 達美航空依然使中間座位閒置。 我敢保證, 他們每天都在損失幾百萬美元, 就因為那決定, 但這個直覺是對的。 你感到安全嗎? 我感到安全嗎? 什麼東西會讓我們感到安全? 我認為達美航空的決定是正確的。
Now look, we can all look at 2020 and 2021 and understand that, oof, we can't really predict what happens.
回過頭來, 看看2020及2021的現況, 並明白事情總是來的太快, 我們永遠無法準確預測。
(Laughs)
(笑聲)
We don't really know. But what we do know is right here. What are the things that make us feel good, the things that scare us, the things that make us feel more connected to each other?
我們真的不知道。 但我們所能知的就是當下。 什麼事情讓我們感到美好? 什麼事情會使我們感到驚嚇? 什麼事情會讓我們感到彼此更靠近了?
You know, today ... is a gift. That’s why they call it the present.
你知道嗎? 今天...... 是個禮物。 那就是所謂的現在。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
I didn't make that up, but it's so corny and I love it.
我沒有在編故事, 雖然很老套但我很愛。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
But my addition to it is the question: "Why would we give the present back?" Oh, your intuition is a gift. So we have to use it.
我想補充的是 對於這個問題: “為什麼我們要將這份禮物返還?” 噢,你的直覺是份禮物。 因此我們得妥善運用它。
So then let's talk about you. You have your intuition. And we'll use some science in here too. We're not totally against data.
所以, 讓我們來談談關於你的事吧。 你擁有你的直覺。 且我們同樣會用科學的方法。 我們並不會完全不參考數據資料。
(Laughs)
(笑聲)
That if you are a set up of molecules, OK? Every one of us has a unique pattern, a unique set. How remarkable is that -- no two of us are the same. So one molecule changes, and we have a whole other being. Now if you consider that we take ourselves as a whole -- let's pretend we're one big molecule, and that over there, the matter over there, is life and the experiences, the services, the communities that we serve, and we enter that matter -- it changes. You step out of the matter, it changes.
假設你是一組細胞組成的分子。 我們每個人, 都有屬於自己獨特的模式,組合。 讓人感到驚訝的是, 我們不會與任何一人是一模一樣的組成。 當一個分子改變時, 我們就會得到另一種組合。 現在我們將所有人視為一個個體。 假設我們是一個大分子組合, 在這與在那的事物, 是我們的人生, 經驗、服務及社會 我們所貢獻的社會, 我們深入探討這個大分子的組成, 他便改變了。 你跨出這個框架, 分子便改變了。
So of course you're powerful. So why wouldn't your intuition, your own thing that you have, be powerful? I think about that all the time.
由此可知, 你具有影響力。 所以, 為何不讓你的直覺, 任何你所擁有的, 也具有影響力呢? 我常常都在思考這個問題。
And perhaps you don't want to take the big, big swing just yet. You know, you can take the little steps. You can practice. I've practiced for a long time. I want to encourage you to practice too. So maybe you don't want to, you know, bet on Beyoncé.
或許你目前還不想做太大的改變。 你知道的, 你可以先從微小的改變開始。 你可以練習它。 我練習了很長一段時間。 我想激勵你一同與我練習。 所以你有可能不想,你知道的, 在碧昂絲身上下賭注。
(Laughs)
(笑聲)
Or maybe you don't want to create the Model T. Maybe you don't want to make the call about the middle seat. So let's take it to something that may be a little bit easier, a little closer to home. Let's pretend you're curating a dinner party. Going to be safe about it -- we have six people over. And you're considering all the data around who likes what. Right? There's some people who, you know, maybe somebody is a pescatarian, another person doesn't eat dairy, another hates spicy food, somebody only likes their food really, really hot, with heat, and you have to consider all of this. Put it all together, think about what to make. I think you'd come up with a really bland fish dish, ugh. Something terrible. But if you used yourself as the curator, as one with intuition -- think about it, yes, put in all the data, you know? Pescatarian, the spices, all of that. I think you would come up with something you wanted to eat too. You know? Taking all of that into consideration. It might be a catfish stew. Something really delicious, something memorable. Now there's probably going to be one person in there who hates it.
或你不想研發出福特T型車。 也許你不會下向達美航空一樣的決定。 我們接著用這個論點談論別的事情。 那或許會容易理解一點, 也更一針見血。 假設你正在策劃一場派對。 有六個人會參與這場派對, 且必須考量安全問題。 你開始查資料看大家喜歡吃什麼。 對吧? 這涉及到了很多人, 你知道的, 也許有人是魚素主義者, 也許有人不吃奶製品, 也許有人不吃辣, 也許有人喜歡吃熱騰騰還會冒煙的食物, 你必須考量到這些種種因素。 綜合這些因素, 思考要怎麼制定菜單。 我猜, 你會想出一頓沒什麼味道的魚肉餐點, 噢。 有點可怕。 但是, 如果你是一個運用直覺的策展人, 將這些因素結合資料來思考, 你知道的, 魚素主義者,嗜辣者,等等...... 我猜, 你會想出你也會喜歡的餐點的。 你知道嗎? 考量到這些種種因素。 就成了美國南部常見的燉鯰魚。 這可能十分美味, 也可能使人難忘。 但是, 可能還是會有人討厭這道料理。
(Laughs)
(笑聲)
Guaranteed, there's always one. But that's OK. Everybody else will remember that moment, remember that experience. It will be something exciting. So consider that.
我敢保證, 總是會有這麼一個人。 但那不傷大雅。 其他人將會記住吃這道料理的瞬間, 記住現在的感受。 那將會十分扣人心弦。 接下來思考這個吧。
As I think about data and how we want to live and change our world, I'm reminded that sometimes, data is the pill that we take to calm our insecurity about what we intuitively know. So I’m advocating that we decrease the dosage of our data. And that we increase the implementation of our intuition. You’ll feel great, you really will ... when you're able to prove to yourself that the power of your intuition is actually accurate.
當我思考數據這部分, 以及我們如何改變這個世界時, 有時,我會注意到, 數據是良藥, 以用來安撫我們的不安, 安撫我們憑直覺知曉事情的當下。 因此我主張, 我們應該減少參考數據的頻率。 且增加使用直覺的頻率。 你將會感受更好, 你將會真的...... 當你有能力證明自己時, 你的直覺力將是千真萬確的。
Thank you so much.
謝謝。
(Applause)
(掌聲)