So I am here ... to recruit you ... to the liberation movement. Now don't worry, this is not the uniform that you have to wear.
我来了, 来招募你到 这个解放运动中。 别担心,你不必穿这样的制服。
(Laughter)
(笑声)
You can come as yourself.
你能以你自己的模样加入。
So you're probably wondering, "Well, what are we being liberated from?" We are being liberated from the endless weight of data. It keeps us bound ... so that we can't move into the future, because we're so busy being tied to the past.
那么你可能在想, “好吧,我们是从什么中解放出来?” 我们正在从无穷无尽的 数据负担中被解放出来。 数据束缚我们, 让我们不能走向未来, 因为我们被过去所缚。
So how do we get free? The freedom comes from our intuition. The thing that's right here, you know, that you can't really quite quantify. Sometimes, you can't even really describe it. That intuition, that's the thing.
那么我们怎么才能自由? 自由来自于我们的直觉。 这里的东西 真的无法量化, 有时候甚至无法真正地描述。 你的直觉是关键。
Now I'm fortunate to have had a career in marketing, where data and intuition and creative ideas are sort of intertwined. But at the beginning of my career, I had a boss who told me that the data was going to be extraordinarily important to the success of my ideas. Right? Anchor the idea in the data, you can predict whether or not it's going to work, and then you can see if it actually did work, and vice versa. Well, I mean, look, I took that advice. I baked a lot my ideas right there in the data. I was inspired, sometimes. I'd see a pattern of something moving, and I would say, "Look, I can follow that! Maybe it'll work."
我很幸运从事过营销这个职业, 那里的数据、直觉和有创意的想法 相互交织。 但是在我职业的开端, 我的老板曾告诉我, 数据将会对我的想法的实现 异常重要。 对吗? 将想法锚定在数据的海洋中, 你可以预测想法是否将会起作用, 看它是不是真的有用, 反之亦然。 看哪,我采纳了他的建议。 我在数据中丰富、发展了我的想法。 有时,我也被数据启发。 我看到一些事情发展的方向,我会说, “看哪,跟着数据走, 也许它会奏效。”
But the challenge was that my ideas stopped right there. They didn't really take flight. Because, you know, the ideas are based off of electricity, you know? Ideas, like, come sharp. They sprint here, and they go here, and they move there. They're nonlinear. I kind of feel like they're like daydreams. You know? Intuition gets you there. It feels like something that is just on the horizon. And then, sometimes, it comes into sharp focus. You wake up and you remember exactly what it was. That's what ideas feel like. And your intuition is actually what helps you get there. It takes it from something that is so practical to something that is magical.
但是真正的挑战在于 我的想法可能就停在那, 它们并没有起飞。 你可知道想法像电一样, 想法来得快而且突然, 冲到这儿,到了那儿, 然后又去到别处。 它们是非线性的。 我有点觉得它们像白日梦。 知道吗?直觉会把你带到那。 就感觉有点像它刚刚出现在地平线, 然后,有时候突然成为焦点, 你从梦中醒来还清楚记得它。 这就是想法的感觉。 而实际上直觉帮你实现, 直觉把实用的东西 变得神奇。
Now, I'm also very, very, very grateful for a boss I had early on, who affirmed my intuition. I worked for Spike Lee at his advertising agency. This was in the early 2000s. And at the time, Pepsi had commissioned him to create a commercial for a campaign that they were trying to run on the main brand. Spike asked everybody in the office to come up with some thoughts on what the talent could be that would star in the commercial. And at the time, I was an assistant account executive. There were people who were much more senior than I, who knew exactly what they were doing, who had come up with a bunch of great ideas. They went to the data. They went to the Billboard charts to look at who was at the top. They went to album sales to see who was selling, who the public really loved. They looked at lists that experts had put together. Who's at the top? Who's really going to win? Who has longevity? Well, I didn't really understand any of that data.
我非常非常感谢我早期的一个老板, 他肯定了我的直觉。 我曾为斯派克·李(Spike Lee)的 广告公司工作。 那是在2000年代初期。 在那个时候, 百事可乐委托他 为他们试图开展的活动制作广告, 开展主要的品牌。 斯派克让办公室的每个人 提出一些想法, 由谁演出广告。 那个时候,我是个业务经理助理。 有太多的人比我资深, 更了解他们在做的东西, 提出了一大堆伟大的想法。 他们分析数据, 看广告牌(Billboard)排行榜 谁的排名最高; 看专辑销量谁的正在热卖, 谁真正被公众喜欢。 他们分析那些专家们列出来的图表。 谁排名最高?谁真正会赢? 谁红得更久? 好吧,我根本不懂任何数据。
(Laughs)
(笑声)
I could look at it, but I didn't really trust myself to interpret it. So I went to the thing I did know, which is MTV.
我可以去看(数据), 但是我并不相信我自己对数据的解释。 所以我去看我了解的东西, 是音乐电视(MTV)频道。
(Laughs)
(笑声)
There had been a made-for-TV movie called "Carmen: A Hip Hopera," on MTV. I loved it. It starred Beyoncé. Now I thought it was magical, because, I mean, who the hell puts hip-hop and opera together? It's fascinating. So, I put my vote on Beyoncé.
有一部为电视制作的电影, 叫做“卡门(Carmen):嘻哈希望”, 在MTV播放。 我太爱它了。 是碧昂斯(Beyoncé)主演的。 我以为很神奇,因为 谁会把嘻哈和歌剧放在一起? 这太赞了! 所以,我投票给碧昂斯。
Now of course, today, everybody would be like, "Well, of course, that makes so much sense, why wouldn't you? Bet on her. Yeah, she's a winner." But at the time, the data would tell us differently. No, there are not a lot of solo artists that come out of girl groups and are successful. In my opinion, there is only one.
当然现今每个人都会说, “好吧,当然,这挺有道理的, 谁会不把赌注押在她身上呢? 是啊,她是赢家。” 但是当时数据说的可不是这样。 不行,没有几个从女生团体 单飞的独唱歌手 能成功。 在我看来,仅仅一个。
(Laughs)
(笑声)
Diana Ross. Yeah, the one.
是戴安娜·罗斯(Diana Ross) 是的,唯一的一个。
(Laughter)
(笑声)
Beyoncé is another. So at the time, nobody was betting on her. But I'm so grateful that Spike ... affirmed my intuition and also followed his. And I would say, today, that we’re pretty successful.
碧昂斯是另一个。 所以那时候,没有人会选她。 但是我很感谢斯派克 肯定了我的直觉, 而且听从他自己的直觉, 所以今天我会说,我们很成功。
(Laughter)
(笑声)
Now, 20 years later, I still use my intuition, daily. I'm the chief marketing officer at Netflix. You'd probably say that maybe the stakes weren't as high when I was an assistant account executive, so I could use my intuition, and who cared. And maybe today, that's different. It’s not. Every day, I am charged with looking at campaigns that are 15 seconds long, 60 seconds long, 90 seconds long, that will encourage you to watch something that's much longer. Every day. And so I have to use my intuition to understand whether or not something is going to make you cry immediately, is it going to make you laugh immediately, is it going to scare you? Is it going to inspire you? And I feel like if I feel that ... then perhaps you do too.
现在,20年以后, 我依然每天用我的直觉。 我是网飞(Netflix)的首席营销官。 你可能会说,有可能 当我是个业务经理助理的时候, 赌注没有那么高, 所以我可以用我的直觉,管他呢。 现在,可能不同。 哈,不是的。 每天,我忙着看剧集的广告, 15 秒的,30 秒的,60 秒的,90 秒的, 这些会吸引你去看更长的东西。 每天。 所以我需要用我的直觉来决定 这个能不能很快让你哭? 会不会让你马上笑? 会吓到你吗? 会启发你吗? 就像如果我觉得我会, 那么你可能也会。
Now I'm not the only one. There are other people who do this. One is over 100 years ago, Henry Ford. He's attributed with saying that if he had asked people, at the time when he was inventing the Model T, if they wanted something like that,
我不是那唯一的一个, 也有其他人做这些。 其中一个是一百多年前的 亨利·福特(Henry Ford)。 他说 倘若在他发明 福特T型车(Model T)的时候 询问别人是否要这样的车子,
(Laughs)
(笑声)
they would have said they wanted faster horses ... instead of this new invention. I think that's pretty powerful. Or you can look at today. A more recent example, Ed Bastian and the team at Delta, you know, based on intuition, I believe, decided that after the restrictions of leaving that middle seat open so that those who are flying would feel safer, with some distance in-between them, that after those restrictions were lifted, they still kept that middle seat open. Now I'm sure they were losing millions of dollars every day with that decision, but the intuition was right. Do you feel safer? Do I feel safer? What would make us feel safer? I think that's the right thing.
他们会回答宁愿要更快一些的马, 而不是什么新的发明。 我想这强而有力。 你也可以看看今天一个更近的例子, 埃德·巴斯蒂安和达美航空的团队, 我相信他们是基于直觉, 决定在(新冠肺炎的)限制之后 将中间的座位留空, 这让乘坐飞机的人感觉更安全, 因为乘客之间保有一些距离; 在限制被解除之后, 他们依然让中间的座位留空。 我确信因为这个决策 他们每天都损失数百万美元, 但是直觉是对的, 你觉得更安全吗?我觉得更安全吗? 什么会让我们感到更安全? 我想这是正确的决定。
Now look, we can all look at 2020 and 2021 and understand that, oof, we can't really predict what happens.
让我们看看2020年和2021年, 了解到(长吁一口气) 我们无法真正预测什么会发生。
(Laughs)
(笑声)
We don't really know. But what we do know is right here. What are the things that make us feel good, the things that scare us, the things that make us feel more connected to each other?
我们真的不知道。 但我们所知道的就在这里。 什么东西让我们感觉良好, 什么事情让我们害怕, 什么事情让我们感觉联系更紧密。
You know, today ... is a gift. That’s why they call it the present.
你知道,今天 是一个礼物。 因此我们叫它 “present”。 (“礼物”和“当下”同为 present)
(Laughter)
(笑声)
I didn't make that up, but it's so corny and I love it.
不是我编的, 但它太老土了,我喜欢它。
(Laughter)
(笑声)
But my addition to it is the question: "Why would we give the present back?" Oh, your intuition is a gift. So we have to use it.
我要附加的是, 我们为什么要把礼物还回去? 哦,你的直觉是一个礼物。 所以我们要利用它。
So then let's talk about you. You have your intuition. And we'll use some science in here too. We're not totally against data.
来聊聊你, 你有你的直觉。 我们会用些科学理论。 我们并不完全反对数据。
(Laughs)
(笑声)
That if you are a set up of molecules, OK? Every one of us has a unique pattern, a unique set. How remarkable is that -- no two of us are the same. So one molecule changes, and we have a whole other being. Now if you consider that we take ourselves as a whole -- let's pretend we're one big molecule, and that over there, the matter over there, is life and the experiences, the services, the communities that we serve, and we enter that matter -- it changes. You step out of the matter, it changes.
你是由分子组成的,对吗? 我们每个人都有个独特的组成方式, 一个独一无二的套装。 多么了不起—— 没有两个人是一样的。 变换一个分子, 就是完全不同的人了。 现在如果你认为我们把自己当成整体--- 假设我们是一个大的分子, 还有那边,那边是 生活、经历、服务, 我们服务的社区, 我们进入那个世界, 它就变了。 你走出来,它也变了。
So of course you're powerful. So why wouldn't your intuition, your own thing that you have, be powerful? I think about that all the time.
所以,你当然是强大的。 那么,难道你的直觉, 你自己所拥有的 不强大吗? 我常想着。
And perhaps you don't want to take the big, big swing just yet. You know, you can take the little steps. You can practice. I've practiced for a long time. I want to encourage you to practice too. So maybe you don't want to, you know, bet on Beyoncé.
也许你还不想有大的起伏, 你知道,你可以迈出一小步。 你可以练习, 我练习了很久, 我想鼓励你们也练习。 也许你不想赌碧昂斯赢,
(Laughs)
(笑声)
Or maybe you don't want to create the Model T. Maybe you don't want to make the call about the middle seat. So let's take it to something that may be a little bit easier, a little closer to home. Let's pretend you're curating a dinner party. Going to be safe about it -- we have six people over. And you're considering all the data around who likes what. Right? There's some people who, you know, maybe somebody is a pescatarian, another person doesn't eat dairy, another hates spicy food, somebody only likes their food really, really hot, with heat, and you have to consider all of this. Put it all together, think about what to make. I think you'd come up with a really bland fish dish, ugh. Something terrible. But if you used yourself as the curator, as one with intuition -- think about it, yes, put in all the data, you know? Pescatarian, the spices, all of that. I think you would come up with something you wanted to eat too. You know? Taking all of that into consideration. It might be a catfish stew. Something really delicious, something memorable. Now there's probably going to be one person in there who hates it.
或者也许你不想制造T型车, 也许你不想做关于中间座位的决定。 我们可以先 做一些简单的,离家近一些的事情。 假设你要准备一个晚餐聚会, 为安全起见,我们只邀来六个人。 你考虑所有的事情, 包括谁喜欢什么,对吗? 也许有人是鱼素主义者, 另一个不吃乳制品, 还有的讨厌辣的食物, 有的只喜欢吃 非常辣、非常烫的食物, 你需要考虑所有这些, 全部放在一起,想想要做什么。 我想你会做一道非常清淡的鱼, 啊哈, 可怕的东西。 但是如果你自己做策划人, 有直觉的策划人, 想想这个,是的,考虑所有的信息, 海鲜素、辣椒,和其他。 我想你会想出一些你也想吃的东西。 考虑全局。 可能就是一道炖鲶鱼。 非常美味, 令人难忘的。 也许还有一个人讨厌它,
(Laughs)
(笑声)
Guaranteed, there's always one. But that's OK. Everybody else will remember that moment, remember that experience. It will be something exciting. So consider that.
可以保证,总有一个, 但没关系。 其他每个人都会记住这个时刻, 记得这个经历, 这是非常让人激动的。 所以想想吧,
As I think about data and how we want to live and change our world, I'm reminded that sometimes, data is the pill that we take to calm our insecurity about what we intuitively know. So I’m advocating that we decrease the dosage of our data. And that we increase the implementation of our intuition. You’ll feel great, you really will ... when you're able to prove to yourself that the power of your intuition is actually accurate.
当我考虑数据, 我们想要怎样生活, 改变这个世界, 我被提醒, 有时候数据是我们用来 抚平直觉所带来的不安全感的药丸。 所以我提议, 我们要减少数据的服用剂量, 提高我们直觉的使用, 你会感觉很棒, 真的, 当你能够向你自己证明, 你的直觉的力量实际上非常准确。
Thank you so much.
谢谢你们!
(Applause)
(掌声)