Chris Anderson asked me if I could put the last 25 years of anti-poverty campaigning into 10 minutes for TED. That's an Englishman asking an Irishman to be succinct.
克里斯·安德森 (Chris Anderson,作家,著有《长尾理论》) 问我能否将过去25年来的 扶贫运动浓缩成10分钟的TED演讲 这是一个英国人要求一个爱尔兰人长话短说.
(Laughter)
(笑声)
I said, "Chris, that would take a miracle."
我说:“Chris啊,那真是要创造奇迹了。”
He said, "Bono, wouldn't that be a good use of your messianic complex?"
他说:“Bono,难道你不觉得这是展示你的弥赛亚情节的好机会吗?”
So, yeah. Then I thought, let's go even further than 25 years. Let's go back before Christ, three millennia, to a time when, at least in my head, the journey for justice, the march against inequality and poverty really began. Three thousand years ago, civilization just getting started on the banks of the Nile, some slaves, Jewish shepherds in this instance, smelling of sheep shit, I guess, proclaimed to the Pharaoh, sitting high on his throne, "We, your majesty-ness, are equal to you."
那么——好的! 然后我又想啊,让我们沿着历史长河走得更远些,超越25年。 让我们回溯到三千年前,早在基督诞生之前, 回到我心目中那个正义的里程的起点, 那个人类面对贫穷和不平等的抗争开启的时代。 三千年前, 人类文明在尼罗河畔孕育, 一些奴隶,那些犹太裔的牧羊人, 他们浑身散发羊粪的味道吧,我想, 面对着坐在至尊王位上的法老宣称: “吾皇,我们与您平等。”
And the Pharaoh replies, "Oh, no. You, your miserableness, have got to be kidding."
法老回答:“哦——不对! 你们,你们这些可鄙的下人,在开玩笑吧。”
And they say, "No, no, that's what it says here in our holy book."
然后他们说:“不!不! 您看,我们的圣经是如此说的。”
Cut to our century, same country, same pyramids, another people spreading the same idea of equality with a different book. This time it's called the Facebook. Crowds are gathered in Tahrir Square. They turn a social network from virtual to actual, and kind of rebooted the 21st century. Not to undersell how messy and ugly the aftermath of the Arab Spring has been, neither to oversell the role of technology, but these things have given a sense of what's possible when the age-old model of power, the pyramid, gets turned upside down, putting the people on top and the pharaohs of today on the bottom, as it were. It's also shown us that something as powerful as information and the sharing of it can challenge inequality, because facts, like people, want to be free, and when they're free, liberty is usually around the corner, even for the poorest of the poor -- facts that can challenge cynicism and the apathy that leads to inertia, facts that tell us what's working and, more importantly, what's not, so we can fix it, facts that if we hear them and heed them could help us meet the challenge that Nelson Mandela made back in 2005, when he asked us to be that great generation that overcomes that most awful offense to humanity, extreme poverty, facts that build a powerful momentum.
现在回到我们这个世纪,同一个国家,同样的金字塔, 不同的人们正在散播着同样的关于平等的思想 而根据的却是不同的书。 这一次的书,叫做脸书(Facebook)。 民众聚集在开罗塔利尔广场(Tahrir Square)上, 将虚拟的社交网络转化为现实的行动, 仿佛让21世纪重新诞生了一遍。 不必说我们低估了 阿拉伯之春后接踵而来的混乱与丑陋, 也不必说我们高估了科技在其中扮演的角色, 但这一切给我们带来了期许—— 当古老的金字塔权利体系 上下颠倒,将人民推到塔顶, 而将现代的法老们推到塔底。 这同时也告诉我们,像咨讯和传媒这样强有力的东西 能够挑战不平等的制度, 因为真相就如同人民, 都希望不受约束,而当他们不受约束时, 普天之下皆是自由, 哪怕是最贫穷的穷人。 真相可以挑战犬儒主义, 以及冷漠所导致的惰性。 真相告诉我们什么可行, 以及更重要的——什么不可行,于是我们可以去修正。 当我们用心去倾听真相, 它将有助于我们去应对纳尔逊·曼德拉(Nelson Mandela 前南非总统) 在2005年所提出的挑战。 他倡导我们成为伟大的一代, 去矫正人类最丑陋的错误—— 极度的贫穷。 真相建立了一个强有力的气势。
So I thought, forget the rock opera, forget the bombast, my usual tricks. The only thing singing today would be the facts, for I have truly embraced by inner nerd. So exit the rock star. Enter the evidence-based activist, the factivist.
所以我想,忘记摇滚乐吧, 忘记我那些常用的夸夸其谈的摇滚伎俩。 今天我们只关注事实真相, 我就是这么单纯,一根筋。 现在我不是摇滚巨星, 而是一个基于事实证据的激进主义者,真相运动者。
Because what the facts are telling us is that the long, slow journey, humanity's long, slow journey of equality, is actually speeding up. Look at what's been achieved. Look at the pictures these data sets print. Since the year 2000, since the turn of the millennium, there are eight million more AIDS patients getting life-saving antiretroviral drugs. Malaria: There are eight countries in sub-Saharan Africa that have their death rates cut by 75 percent. For kids under five, child mortality, kids under five, it's down by 2.65 million a year. That's a rate of 7,256 children's lives saved each day. Wow. Wow. (Applause)
因为真相告诉我们的是 那个漫长而缓慢的旅程, 人类追求平等的那个漫长而缓慢的旅程, 实际正在加速。 看看我们的成就。 看看这组数据图片。 自2000年以来,自这个千禧年以来, 世界上有超过八百万艾滋病患者 正接受抗逆转录病毒的有效治疗。 至于疟疾:在撒哈拉以南的非洲有八个国家 的死亡率下降了75%。 五岁以下的儿童的死亡人数 每年下降了265万。 这代表每天有7256名儿童被拯救。 哇!哇!(掌声)
Let's just stop for a second, actually, and think about that. Have you read anything anywhere in the last week that is remotely as important as that number? Wow. Great news. It drives me nuts that most people don't seem to know this news. Seven thousand kids a day. Here's two of them. This is Michael and Benedicta, and they're alive thanks in large part to Dr. Patricia Asamoah -- she's amazing -- and the Global Fund, which all of you financially support, whether you know it or not. And the Global Fund provides antiretroviral drugs that stop mothers from passing HIV to their kids. This fantastic news didn't happen by itself. It was fought for, it was campaigned for, it was innovated for. And this great news gives birth to even more great news, because the historic trend is this. The number of people living in back-breaking, soul-crushing extreme poverty has declined from 43 percent of the world's population in 1990 to 33 percent by 2000 and then to 21 percent by 2010. Give it up for that. (Applause) Halved. Halved.
让我们先暂停下,说实话,咱想想, 在过去的一周你有在任何地方读过任何消息 它的重要性能沾上这个数字的边吗?哇! 这是天大的好消息!然而让我抓狂的是 大多数人似乎并不知道这个消息。 每天,七千多名儿童。这里是其中的两位。 这是Michael和Benedicta, 他们能活下来,很大程度上要归功于 Patricia Asamoah医师——她真的很了不起! 还有全球基金会(Global Fund),你们全都资助过它 无论你们是否知道。 全球基金会提供抗逆转录病毒的药物, 这个药物可以阻止母亲将携带的HIV病毒传给孩子。 这么神奇的事情不是自己发生的, 而是斗争的结果,是运动的诉求, 是创新的目的。 而这个好消息催生了更多的好消息, 因为这是历史发展的趋势所然。 那些生活在筋骨劳累、心力憔悴的极度贫穷的人们 的数量已经下降 从1990年占世界人口的43% 到2000年的33% 再到2010年的21%。 来点掌声!(掌声) 降低了一半!
Now, the rate is still too high -- still too many people unnecessarily losing their lives. There's still work to do. But it's heart-stopping. It's mind-blowing stuff. And if you live on less than $1.25 a day, if you live in that kind of poverty, this is not just data. This is everything. If you're a parent who wants the best for your kids -- and I am -- this rapid transition is a route out of despair and into hope. And guess what? If the trajectory continues, look where the amount of people living on $1.25 a day gets to by 2030. Can't be true, can it? That's what the data is telling us. If the trajectory continues, we get to, wow, the zero zone. For number-crunchers like us, that is the erogenous zone, and it's fair to say that I am, by now, sexually aroused by the collating of data. So virtual elimination of extreme poverty, as defined by people living on less than $1.25 a day, adjusted, of course, for inflation from a 1990 baseline. We do love a good baseline. That's amazing.
现在,这个比率仍然偏高,仍然有太多的人 本不应失去生命。 我们仍然有很多工作要做。 但这是令人激动的刻骨铭心的事。 尤其如果你每天靠不足1.25美金生存, 如果你处于那样的贫穷, 这就不仅仅是数据, 而是你的一切。 如果你是父母想让自己孩子拥有最好的一切——正如我 那如今飞速的转变正是从绝望通往希望的道路。 想想看,如果这个轨迹延伸下去...... 看看,那些每天生活消费1.25美金的人们 到2030年 (图象显示为零) 这不可能吧?可能吗? 这正是数据告诉我们的。如果沿着这条道路继续走下去, 我们将会到达——哇!零的区域。 对于像我们这种鼓捣数据的人来说, 这是所谓的性感区域, 现在,可以说, 鼓捣这些数据让我有了性冲动。 所以说在我们的模型里,极度贫困, 被定义为每天生活费1.25美元以下, 当然这是指以1990年的水准为基线并进行通胀调整的。 我们当然喜欢好的基线。 这太棒了!
Now I know that some of you think this progress is all in Asia or Latin America or model countries like Brazil -- and who doesn't love a Brazilian model? -- but look at sub-Saharan Africa. There's a collection of 10 countries, some call them the lions, who in the last decade have had a combination of 100 percent debt cancellation, a tripling of aid, a tenfold increase in FDI -- that's foreign direct investment -- which has unlocked a quadrupling of domestic resources -- that's local money -- which, when spent wisely -- that's good governance -- cut childhood mortality by a third, doubled education completion rates, and they, too, halved extreme poverty, and at this rate, these 10 get to zero too. So the pride of lions is the proof of concept.
现在,我知道在座诸位中有人认为 这样的进展只是发生在亚洲或是拉美 或是典范(model)国家比如巴西 ——谁不喜欢巴西的模特(model)呢? 可是,看看撒哈拉以南的非洲。 这里有一系列的10个国家,有人称之为狮群, 它们在过去十年获得了 总计100%的债务取消, 三倍的经济援助,以及增长了10倍的FDI ——也就是境外直接投资, 这使得国内的资源,也就是当地的财富,翻了两番。 当它们被妥善运用时,也就是良好的管理, 让儿童死亡率减少了三分之一, 学业完成率翻番, 同时,极度贫困人口减半, 而照这样的速度,这10个国家也将到达零的区域。 所以,这些狮子的骄傲 就是这个观念的的佐证。
There are all kinds of benefits to this. For a start, you won't have to listen to an insufferable little jumped-up Jesus like myself. How about that? (Applause)
这有各种各样的好处。 首先说,你们再也不用理会 一个讨厌的上蹿下跳的耶稣,也就是我 这样可好?
And 2028, 2030? It's just around the corner. I mean, it's about three Rolling Stones farewell concerts away. (Laughter) I hope. I'm hoping. Makes us look really young.
那2028年,2030年呢?很快就要到了。 我是说,是大约再过三次滚石乐团的告别演唱会。 (笑声)我希望。我是这么希望的 这样我们(U2乐队)看起来还很年轻。
So why aren't we jumping up and down about this? Well, the opportunity is real, but so is the jeopardy. We can't get this done until we really accept that we can get this done. Look at this graph. It's called inertia. It's how we screw it up. And the next one is really beautiful. It's called momentum. And it's how we can bend the arc of history down towards zero, just doing the things that we know work.
那为什么我们并没有上蹿下跳地为之兴奋呢? 嗯,机会与危机并存。 我们无法完成这件事, 除非我们认为我们能够完成。 看看这个图表。 这叫做惰性,就是我们如何搞砸这件事。 而下一个东西很美妙, 叫做态势。 就是我们如何扭转历史 是它朝向零, 只需去做那些我们知道有效的事情。
So inertia versus momentum. There is jeopardy, and of course, the closer you get, it gets harder. We know the obstacles that are in our way right now, in difficult times. In fact, today in your capital, in difficult times, some who mind the nation's purse want to cut life-saving programs like the Global Fund. But you can do something about that. You can tell politicians that these cuts [can cost] lives.
所以说是惰性与态势的对抗。 当然,这其中潜藏危机, 而你靠得越近,危机越重。 我们明白,前路充满险阻, 如今正是艰难的时刻。 事实上,现今你们国家的首都,正是艰难的时刻, 而那些看管国家金库的人 想要削减像全球基金会这样的拯救生命的计划。 但你们是能够对此行动起来的。 你们可以告诉那些政客 这样砍预算,付出的是许多生命的代价。
Right now today, in Oslo as it happens, oil companies are fighting to keep secret their payments to governments for extracting oil in developing countries. You can do something about that too. You can join the One Campaign, and leaders like Mo Ibrahim, the telecom entrepreneur. We're pushing for laws that make sure that at least some of the wealth under the ground ends up in the hands of the people living above it.
今天,就在现在,在奥斯陆(挪威首都)正在发生的 石油公司为了从发展中国家提取石油 而向政府交钱 它们正全力避免其行为曝光 你们同样可以对此行动起来。 你们可以加入One Campaign (一项国际慈善运动,主要针对艾滋援助和扶贫), 加入像Mo Ibrahim(电信创业家)那样的领导者。 我们正在推动一项法案,以确保 至少一部分“地下”的财富 能够最终到达住在那土地之上的人民的手里。
And right now, we know that the biggest disease of all is not a disease. It's corruption. But there's a vaccine for that too. It's called transparency, open data sets, something the TED community is really on it. Daylight, you could call it, transparency. And technology is really turbocharging this. It's getting harder to hide if you're doing bad stuff.
而现在,我们知道 在所有的疾病中最严重的 并不是疾病,而是腐败。 但这同样有疫苗可以预防。 它叫做透明化,资讯公开化, 这是TED社区所依赖所倡导的。 在日光下,可以这么讲,透明化。 而科技实实在在地使其飞速发展。 越来越难隐藏那些见不得人的事。
So let me tell you about the U-report, which I'm really excited about. It's 150,000 millennials all across Uganda, young people armed with 2G phones, an SMS social network exposing government corruption and demanding to know what's in the budget and how their money is being spent. This is exciting stuff.
就让我来给各位介绍U-report 这是让我振奋的东西。它是由15万青年人 遍布乌干达的年轻人 用2G手机组成的短信社区网络 用来揭发政府的腐败, 以及用来要求公开预算内容 和经费开支。 这是振奋人心的东西。
Look, once you have these tools, you can't not use them. Once you have this knowledge, you can't un-know it. You can't delete this data from your brain, but you can delete the cliched image of supplicant, impoverished peoples not taking control of their own lives. You can erase that, you really can, because it's not true anymore. (Applause)
看,一旦你拥有了这样一些工具, 你没法不去运用。 而当你有了这些知识,你没法忘记。 你不能删除你脑海中的记忆, 但你可以删除那些成为历史的景象 那些屈从、贫穷的人们 无法掌控自己的人生。 你可以抹掉这些,你真的可以, 因为这不再是事实了。(掌声)
It's transformational. 2030? By 2030, robots, not just serving us Guinness, but drinking it. By the time we get there, every place with a rough semblance of governance might actually be on their way.
这是革命性的。 2030年?到了2030年, 机器人不再是只为我们端来健力士(爱尔兰黑啤酒),而是自己能享用。 到了那个时候, 世界各地那些如今还不成熟的政权 可能也将步入正轨。
So I'm here to -- I guess we're here to try and infect you with this virtuous, data-based virus, the one we call factivism. It's not going to kill you. In fact, it could save countless lives. I guess we in the One Campaign would love you to be contagious, spread it, share it, pass it on. By doing so, you will join us and countless others in what I truly believe is the greatest adventure ever taken, the ever-demanding journey of equality. Could we really be the great generation that Mandela asked us to be? Might we answer that clarion call with science, with reason, with facts, and, dare I say it, emotions? Because as is obvious, factivists have feelings too.
所以今天我来到这里,我想应该说是我们来到这里 是为了试着用这个美好的基于数据的“病毒”来感染你们, 我们称它为真相运动主义。 这病毒并不会致你于死地。 事实上,它会拯救无数的生命。 我想我们,One Campaign运动参与者,会热切希望你 具有感染力,扩散它,分享它,传播它。 通过这样,你会加入我们以及其他数不清的人 加入到一场我相信是史上最大的历险, 这个旅行是为了追逐从未如此渴求的平等。 我们能成为一个曼德拉所号召的 伟大的一代吗? 希望我们用来吹响号角的,是科学, 是理性,是真相, 以及,我敢说,情感。 因为,显而易见,真相运动者也是感性的。
I'm thinking of Wael Ghonim, though. Some of you know him. He set up one of the Facebook groups behind the Tahrir Square in Cairo. He got thrown in jail for it, but I have his words tattooed on my brain.
我在想威尔·戈宁(Wael Ghonim 埃及互联网行动主义者)。 你们有人知道他。他建立了一个脸书团体 是开罗塔利尔广场事件背后的组织。 为此,他被扔进监狱里, 但他的话深深铭刻在我的脑海中。
"We are going to win because we don't understand politics. We are going to win because we don't play their dirty games. We are going to win because we don't have a party political agenda. We are going to win because the tears that come from our eyes actually come from our hearts. We are going to win because we have dreams, and we're willing to stand up for those dreams."
“我们终将赢得胜利,因为我们不懂得政治。 我们终将赢得胜利,因为我们不同流合污。 我们终将赢得胜利,因为我们没有党政议程。 我们终将赢得胜利,因为 我们眼里的泪水来源于我们内心。 我们终将赢得胜利,因为我们拥有梦想, 并且甘愿为梦想挺身而出。”
Wael is right. We're going to win if we work together as one, because the power of the people is so much stronger than the people in power.
Wael是正确的。 我们终将赢得胜利, 只要我们齐心协力, 因为 人民的力量 远比掌握权利的人 更强大
Thank you.
谢谢!
(Applause) Thank you so much. (Applause)
(掌声) 非常感谢!(掌声)