I'm really excited to share with you some findings that really surprise me about what makes companies succeed the most, what factors actually matter the most for startup success.
Srećan sam što mogu da podijelim s vama neke zaključke koji me iznenađuju o tome zašto neke kompanije imaju najviše uspjeha, i koji su to najvažniji faktori za startup uspjeh
I believe that the startup organization is one of the greatest forms to make the world a better place. If you take a group of people with the right equity incentives and organize them in a startup, you can unlock human potential in a way never before possible. You get them to achieve unbelievable things.
Ubjeđen sam da je organizovanje startup-a je jedan od sjajnih načina da se svijet učini boljim Ako uzmete grupu ljudi koji su motivisani da ulože kapital i organizujete ih u startup uspjećete otključati ljudski potencijal koji nikad ranije nije bio moguć. Natjeraćete ih da urade nevjerovatne stvari
Međutim ako je organizovanje startup-a tako sjajno
But if the startup organization is so great, why do so many fail? That's what I wanted to find out. I wanted to find out what actually matters most for startup success.
zašto onda toliko njih propada? To je ono što sam želio da saznam Želio sam da saznam šta je u stvari najvažnije za startup uspjeh. Pokušao sam da budem sistematičan,
And I wanted to try to be systematic about it, avoid some of my instincts and maybe misperceptions I have from so many companies I've seen over the years.
da izbjegnem neke moje instinktivne ideje ili neke pogrešne predstave zbog kompanija koje sam tokom ovih godina vidio Želio sam da znam ovo
I wanted to know this because I've been starting businesses since I was 12 years old when I sold candy at the bus stop in junior high school, to high school, when I made solar energy devices, to college, when I made loudspeakers. And when I graduated from college, I started software companies. And 20 years ago, I started Idealab, and in the last 20 years, we started more than 100 companies, many successes, and many big failures. We learned a lot from those failures.
jer ja sam počeo da poslujem od svoje 12-te godine kad sam prodavao slatkiše u osnovnoj školi prodavao sam naprave za solarnu energiju, u gimnaziji a na fakultetu sam pravio zvučnike. Kad sam završio fakultet, započeo sam rad softver kompanija Prije 20 godina, započeo sam rad Idealab-a a u posljednjih 20 godina, započeli smo rad više od 100 kompanija, mnoge s uspjehom, mnoge s neuspjehom. Mnogo smo naučili iz tih neuspjeha. Pokušao sam da se fokusiram na faktore koji su zaslužni
So I tried to look across what factors accounted the most for company success and failure. So I looked at these five. First, the idea. I used to think that the idea was everything. I named my company Idealab for how much I worship the "aha!" moment when you first come up with the idea. But then over time, I came to think that maybe the team, the execution, adaptability, that mattered even more than the idea.
za uspjeh ili neuspjeh većine kompanija. Pogledao sam ovih pet. Prvi faktor, ideja. Nekad sam mislio da je ideja sve. Moju kompaniju sam nazvao Idealab zbog obožavanja onog "aha!" momenta kada ti ideja prvi put padne na pamet. Međutim vremenom, shvatio sam da su možda tim, izvršenje ideje, prilagodljivost, bilo važniji i od same ideje. Nikad nisam ni pomislio da ću citirati boksera Majka Tajsona na TED sceni,
I never thought I'd be quoting boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage, but he once said, "Everybody has a plan, until they get punched in the face." (Laughter) And I think that's so true about business as well. So much about a team's execution is its ability to adapt to getting punched in the face by the customer. The customer is the true reality. And that's why I came to think that the team maybe was the most important thing.
ali on je jednom rekao, "Svako ima plan, dok ne dobije udarac u facu." (Smijeh) A mislim da je tako i za biznis. Toliko toga o timskom izvršenju leži u njegovoj sposobnosti da primi udarac u facu od strane klijenta. Klijent je istinita realnost. I tako sam došao do zaključka da je tim možda najvažnija stvar. Zatim sam počeo da analiziram biznis model.
Then I started looking at the business model. Does the company have a very clear path generating customer revenues? That started rising to the top in my thinking about maybe what mattered most for success.
Da li kompanija ima veoma jasan put prikupljanja klijentovih prihoda? Ova misao je ispala najbitnija u vezi s tim šta je važno za uspjeh. Onda sam analizirao finansiranje.
Then I looked at the funding. Sometimes companies received intense amounts of funding. Maybe that's the most important thing?
Ponekad su kompanije primale moćne iznose novca. Možda je to najvažnija stvar? A onda naravno, izbor pravog momenta.
And then of course, the timing. Is the idea way too early and the world's not ready for it? Is it early, as in, you're in advance and you have to educate the world? Is it just right? Or is it too late, and there's already too many competitors?
Je li ideja preuranjena i svijet nije spreman za nju? Je li preuranjena u smislu da moraš da edukuješ svijet jer si ti napredniji? Je li prosto to prava ideja? Ili je li suviše kasno i već ima konkurencije? Pokušao sam da izanaliziram ovih pet faktora veoma oprezno
So I tried to look very carefully at these five factors across many companies. And I looked across all 100 Idealab companies, and 100 non-Idealab companies to try and come up with something scientific about it.
upoređujući mnoge kompanije. Proučavao sam svih 100 Idealab kompanija, i 100 koje nisu bile dio Idealab-a da bih probao da dođem do nekog naučno baziranog podatka. Pa da kažemo prvo nešto o ovim Idealab kompanijama,
So first, on these Idealab companies, the top five companies -- Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo, NetZero, Tickets.com -- those all became billion-dollar successes. And the five companies on the bottom -- Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife, Desktop Factory, Peoplelink -- we all had high hopes for, but didn't succeed.
prvih pet kompanija Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo, NetZero, Tickets.com -- uspjesi ovih kompanija mjere se milijardama dolara, A onih pet kompanija s dna ljestvice - Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife, Desktop Factory, Peoplelink - svi smo ulagali velike nade, ali nisu uspjele. Pokušao sam da rangiram sve karakteristike
So I tried to rank across all of those attributes how I felt those companies scored on each of those dimensions. And then for non-Idealab companies, I looked at wild successes, like Airbnb and Instagram and Uber and Youtube and LinkedIn.
po osjećaju koji sam imao za rezultate ovih kompanija i iz svakog ugla. Zatim za firme koje nisu dio Idealab-a, pratio sam najveće uspjehe, poput Airbnb-a, Instagram-a i Uber-a, i Youtube-a i LinkedIn-a. I neke neuspješne kompanije:
And some failures: Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com Flooz and Friendster. The bottom companies had intense funding, they even had business models in some cases, but they didn't succeed. I tried to look at what factors actually accounted the most for success and failure across all of these companies, and the results really surprised me.
kao što su Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com Flooz and Friendster. Ove poslednje imale su moćno finansiranje, čak su imale i biznis modele u nekim slučajevima, ali nisu uspjele. Pokušao sam da pronađem faktore koji su bili najodgovorniji za uspjehe i neuspjehe u svim ovim kompanijama, a rezultati su me zaista iznenadili. Faktor broj jedan bio je izbor pravog momenta.
The number one thing was timing. Timing accounted for 42 percent of the difference between success and failure. Team and execution came in second, and the idea, the differentiability of the idea, the uniqueness of the idea, that actually came in third.
Izbor pravog momenta iznosio je 42% razlike između uspjeha i neuspjeha. Tim i izvršavanje bili su na drugom mjestu. a ideja, diferenciranje ideje, jedinstvenost ideje, bili su u stvari na trećem mjestu. Svakako ovo nije apsolutno tačno,
Now, this isn't absolutely definitive, it's not to say that the idea isn't important, but it very much surprised me that the idea wasn't the most important thing. Sometimes it mattered more when it was actually timed.
ne da bi se reklo da ideja nije važna, ali me je jako iznenadilo da ideja nije najvažnija. Nekad je bilo bitnije kad se za ideju nađe pravi momenat. Posljednja dva faktora, biznis model i finansije, su mi bili krajnje jasni.
The last two, business model and funding, made sense to me actually. I think business model makes sense to be that low because you can start out without a business model and add one later if your customers are demanding what you're creating. And funding, I think as well, if you're underfunded at first but you're gaining traction, especially in today's age, it's very, very easy to get intense funding.
To što je biznis model nisko na skali ja mislim da ima smisla jer možete započeti biznis bez biznis modela i napraviti ga kasnije kada mušterije potražuju od vas to što stvarate. A za finansiranje, takođe mislim da, ako ste bez mnogo novca na početku ali postajete prepoznatljivi, pogotovo u današnjem vremenu, postaje veoma lako da dobijete velike prilive finansija. Sad ću vam dati konkretne primjere vezane za sve ovo pojedinačno.
So now let me give you some specific examples about each of these. So take a wild success like Airbnb that everybody knows about. Well, that company was famously passed on by many smart investors because people thought, "No one's going to rent out a space in their home to a stranger." Of course, people proved that wrong. But one of the reasons it succeeded, aside from a good business model, a good idea, great execution, is the timing.
Uzmimo kao primjer vrtoglavi uspjeh Airbnb o kome svi znaju. E pa, tu kompaniju su zaobiliazili pametni investitori zato što su ljudi razmišljali, "Niko neće izdati prostor u kući tamo nekom strancu." Naravno ispostavilo se da ti ljudi nisu bili u pravu. Ipak razlog uspjeha ove kompanije, pored dobrog biznis modela, dobre ideje, sjajnog izvršenja, leži u odabiru pravog momenta.
That company came out right during the height of the recession when people really needed extra money, and that maybe helped people overcome their objection to renting out their own home to a stranger.
Ova kompanija se izdvojila baš na vrhuncu recesiije kad je ljudima bio potreban dodatan izvor prihoda, i to im je možda pomoglo da prevaziđu animozitet prema izdavanju svog doma nekom strancu.
Same thing with Uber. Uber came out, incredible company, incredible business model, great execution, too. But the timing was so perfect for their need to get drivers into the system. Drivers were looking for extra money; it was very, very important.
Isto se desilo i sa Uber-om. Uber se odvojio od ostalih, sjajna kompanija, sjajan biznis model, takođe i sjajno izvršenje. Ali momenat je bio savršen za njihovu potrebu da vozače uvedu u sistem.
Some of our early successes, Citysearch, came out when people needed web pages. GoTo.com, which we announced actually at TED in 1998, was when companies were looking for cost-effective ways to get traffic. We thought the idea was so great, but actually, the timing was probably maybe more important. And then some of our failures. We started a company called Z.com, it was an online entertainment company. We were so excited about it -- we raised enough money, we had a great business model, we even signed incredibly great Hollywood talent to join the company. But broadband penetration was too low in 1999-2000. It was too hard to watch video content online, you had to put codecs in your browser and do all this stuff, and the company eventually went out of business in 2003.
Vozači su tražili dodatni izvor prihoda; a to je bilo veoma, veoma važno. Naš raniji uspjeh, Citysearch npr, izdvojila se kad su tražene web stranice GoTo.com, koju smo predstavili baš na TED-u 1998., desila se kad su firme tražile isplative načine za posjećenost. Mislili smo da je ideja zaista sjajna, ali u stvari, odabir pravog momenta je vjerovatno bio najvažniji. A sada da kažemo nešto o našim neuspjesima Osnovali smo firmu pod imenom Z.com, bila je to firma za online zabavu Bili smo tako uzbuđeni zbog nje - podigli smo dovoljno novca, imali smo sjajan biznis model, čak smo potpisali da nam se kao kompaniji pridruži izuzetan i sjajan Holivud talent Ali je penetracija broadband-a bilo jako niska 1999-2000. Bilo je suviše teško gledati online video sadržaj, morao si da staviš kodove u pretraživač i uradiš sve te stvari,
Just two years later, when the codec problem was solved by Adobe Flash and when broadband penetration crossed 50 percent in America, YouTube was perfectly timed. Great idea, but unbelievable timing. In fact, YouTube didn't even have a business model when it first started. It wasn't even certain that that would work out. But that was beautifully, beautifully timed.
I firma je na kraju prestala s radom 2003. Samo dvije godine kasnije, kada je kodek problem riješen pojavom Adobe Flash-a i kada je penetracija broadband-a prešla 50% u Americi, You Tube je imao savršen momenat. Sjajna ideja, ali nezamisliv momenat. U stvari, You Tube nije čak ni imao biznis model u početku.
So what I would say, in summary, is execution definitely matters a lot. The idea matters a lot. But timing might matter even more. And the best way to really assess timing is to really look at whether consumers are really ready for what you have to offer them. And to be really, really honest about it, not be in denial about any results that you see, because if you have something you love, you want to push it forward, but you have to be very, very honest about that factor on timing.
Nije čak ni bilo sigurno da li će proraditi. Ali momenat je bio savšren i divan. Ukratko, želim da vam kažem da izvršenje je definitivno jako bitno. Ideja je jako bitna. Ali odabir pravog momenta je još bitniji. A najbolji način da procjenite momenat je da provjerite da li su potrošači zaista spremni za ono što želite da im ponudite. I da budete zaista iskreni u vezi s tim, da ne opovrgavate bilo koje rezultate koje vidite, jer kad imate nešto što volite, želite da ga progurate,
As I said earlier, I think startups can change the world and make the world a better place. I hope some of these insights can maybe help you have a slightly higher success ratio, and thus make something great come to the world that wouldn't have happened otherwise.
ali morate biti zaista iskreni prema faktoru odabira pravog momenta. Kao što sam i ranije rekao, Startup-ovi mogu da promjene svijet, i učine ga boljim. Nadam se da vam neki od ovih uvida mogu pomoći da imate makar malo višu stopu uspjeha, i na taj način učinite da nešto sjajno dođe na ovaj svijet
Thank you very much, you've been a great audience.
a koje se inače ne bi desilo.
(Applause)
Hvala vam puno. (Aplauz)