I'm really excited to share with you some findings that really surprise me about what makes companies succeed the most, what factors actually matter the most for startup success.
Saya sangat senang berbagi dengan Anda beberapa temuan yang sangat mengejutkan tentang hal utama yang mendorong suksesnya perusahaan, faktor yang paling menentukan kesuksesan perusahaan startup.
I believe that the startup organization is one of the greatest forms to make the world a better place. If you take a group of people with the right equity incentives and organize them in a startup, you can unlock human potential in a way never before possible. You get them to achieve unbelievable things.
Saya percaya organisasi startup adalah salah satu cara terbaik untuk menciptakan dunia yang lebih baik. Bila Anda memberi insentif ekuitas yang tepat pada sekelompok orang dan mengatur mereka dalam startup, Anda dapat membuka potensi manusia yang dulunya tidak mungkin. Anda mendorong mereka meraih hal-hal yang tidak mungkin.
But if the startup organization is so great, why do so many fail? That's what I wanted to find out. I wanted to find out what actually matters most for startup success.
Namun, bila organisasi startup demikian hebatnya, mengapa banyak yang gagal? Inilah yang ingin saya ketahui. Saya ingin tahu apa yang paling berperan dalam kesuksesan startup.
And I wanted to try to be systematic about it, avoid some of my instincts and maybe misperceptions I have from so many companies I've seen over the years.
Saya ingin mencari tahu secara sistematis, menghindari insting dan salah persepsi yang mungkin saya miliki dari banyak perusahaan yang saya temui beberapa tahun ini.
I wanted to know this because I've been starting businesses since I was 12 years old when I sold candy at the bus stop in junior high school, to high school, when I made solar energy devices, to college, when I made loudspeakers. And when I graduated from college, I started software companies. And 20 years ago, I started Idealab, and in the last 20 years, we started more than 100 companies, many successes, and many big failures. We learned a lot from those failures.
Saya ingin tahu karena saya memulai usaha sejak berumur 12 tahun ketika saya berjualan permen di halte bus saat SMP, dan di SMA, saat saya membuat panel surya, saat kuliah, saya membuat pengeras suara. Saat lulus kuliah, saya memulai usaha perangkat lunak. Dan 20 tahun yang lalu, saya memulai Idealab, dan dalam 20 tahun terakhir, kami membuat lebih dari 100 perusahaan, banyak yang sukses, dan banyak yang gagal total. Kami belajar banyak dari kegagalan itu.
So I tried to look across what factors accounted the most for company success and failure. So I looked at these five. First, the idea. I used to think that the idea was everything. I named my company Idealab for how much I worship the "aha!" moment when you first come up with the idea. But then over time, I came to think that maybe the team, the execution, adaptability, that mattered even more than the idea.
Jadi, saya coba mengamati faktor apa yang paling berpengaruh pada kegagalan dan kesuksesan perusahaan. Saya melihat kelima hal ini. Pertama, ide. Dulu saya berpikir bahwa segalanya tergantung pada ide. Nama perusahaan saya "Idealab" karena saya amat memuja momen "aha!" saat kita pertama kali mendapatkan ide. Tapi kemudian saya berpikir bahwa mungkin tim, eksekusi, kemampuan adaptasi, lebih penting daripada ide.
I never thought I'd be quoting boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage, but he once said, "Everybody has a plan, until they get punched in the face." (Laughter) And I think that's so true about business as well. So much about a team's execution is its ability to adapt to getting punched in the face by the customer. The customer is the true reality. And that's why I came to think that the team maybe was the most important thing.
Saya tak pernah terpikir akan mengutip petinju Mike Tyson di panggung TED, tapi ia pernah berkata, "Semua orang punya rencana, sampai mereka ditinju di mukanya." (Tertawa) Dan saya pikir, itu benar sekali, termasuk dalam bisnis. Keberhasilan tim sangat bergantung pada kemampuan beradaptasi terhadap pukulan ke muka yang dilayangkan klien. Klien adalah realitas sebenarnya. Dan karena itulah saya berpikir bahwa mungkin yang paling penting adalah tim.
Then I started looking at the business model. Does the company have a very clear path generating customer revenues? That started rising to the top in my thinking about maybe what mattered most for success.
Lalu saya melihat model bisnis. Apakah perusahaan punya strategi yang jelas untuk menarik klien? Saya mulai berpikir apakah model bisnis yang paling berperan dalam kesuksesan.
Then I looked at the funding. Sometimes companies received intense amounts of funding. Maybe that's the most important thing?
Lalu saya melihat pendanaan. Terkadang perusahaan mendapat banyak dana. Mungkinkah itu yang terpenting?
And then of course, the timing. Is the idea way too early and the world's not ready for it? Is it early, as in, you're in advance and you have to educate the world? Is it just right? Or is it too late, and there's already too many competitors?
Dan tentu saja, waktu. Apa idenya muncul terlalu cepat dan dunia belum siap menerima? Apa terlalu cepat, Anda terlalu maju dan perlu mengedukasi dunia? Apa waktunya tepat? Atau terlambat, dan sudah terlalu banyak kompetitor? Jadi saya memperhatikan kelima faktor ini dengan seksama
So I tried to look very carefully at these five factors across many companies. And I looked across all 100 Idealab companies, and 100 non-Idealab companies to try and come up with something scientific about it.
di berbagai perusahaan. Dan saya melihat seratus perusahaan Idealab, dan seratus perusahaan non-Idealab dan berupaya mendapat kesimpulan yang ilmiah tentangnya.
So first, on these Idealab companies, the top five companies -- Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo, NetZero, Tickets.com -- those all became billion-dollar successes. And the five companies on the bottom -- Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife, Desktop Factory, Peoplelink -- we all had high hopes for, but didn't succeed.
Jadi, pertama, dari perusahaan Idealab, lima perusahaan teratas -- Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo, NetZero, Tickets.com -- semuanya meraih sukses milyaran dolar. Dan lima perusahaan terbawah -- Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife, Desktop Factory, Peoplelink -- kami berharap banyak, tapi mereka tidak sukses.
So I tried to rank across all of those attributes how I felt those companies scored on each of those dimensions. And then for non-Idealab companies, I looked at wild successes, like Airbnb and Instagram and Uber and Youtube and LinkedIn.
Jadi saya memberi peringkat masing-masing perusahaan berdasarkan faktor-faktor tadi. Lalu, bagi perusahaan non-Idealab, saya mencari perusahaan yang sukses besar, seperti Airbnb dan Instagram dan Uber dan Youtube dan LinkedIn.
And some failures: Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com Flooz and Friendster. The bottom companies had intense funding, they even had business models in some cases, but they didn't succeed. I tried to look at what factors actually accounted the most for success and failure across all of these companies, and the results really surprised me.
Dan beberapa yang gagal: Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com Flooz and Friendster. Perusahaan terbawah punya banyak dana, beberapa bahkan punya bisnis model, tapi tidak berhasil. Saya coba melihat faktor apa yang paling berpengaruh bagi kesuksesan dan kegagalan mereka, dan hasilnya sangatlah mengejutkan.
The number one thing was timing. Timing accounted for 42 percent of the difference between success and failure. Team and execution came in second, and the idea, the differentiability of the idea, the uniqueness of the idea, that actually came in third.
Yang paling berpengaruh adalah waktu. Waktu berperan sebesar 42 persen dalam menentukan sukses dan kegagalan. Tim dan eksekusi adalah yang kedua, dan ide, ide yang lain dari yang lain, keunikan sebuah ide, berada di peringkat ketiga.
Now, this isn't absolutely definitive, it's not to say that the idea isn't important, but it very much surprised me that the idea wasn't the most important thing. Sometimes it mattered more when it was actually timed.
Nah, ini bukan formula absolut, bukan berarti ide tidaklah penting, tapi yang paling mengejutkan ialah bahwa ide bukanlah yang paling penting. Terkadang yang lebih penting adalah ketepatan waktu.
The last two, business model and funding, made sense to me actually. I think business model makes sense to be that low because you can start out without a business model and add one later if your customers are demanding what you're creating. And funding, I think as well, if you're underfunded at first but you're gaining traction, especially in today's age, it's very, very easy to get intense funding.
Dua yang terakhir, model bisnis dan dana, masuk akal bagi saya. Model bisnis mungkin peringkatnya lebih rendah karena Anda bisa mulai tanpa model bisnis dan menambahkannya ketika kebutuhannya muncul. Dan pendanaan juga sama, kalau di awal dana Anda kurang, namun Anda berkembang baik, terutama di masa kini, menggalang dana tidak begitu sulit. Saya akan memberikan beberapa contoh spesifik untuk Anda.
So now let me give you some specific examples about each of these. So take a wild success like Airbnb that everybody knows about. Well, that company was famously passed on by many smart investors because people thought, "No one's going to rent out a space in their home to a stranger." Of course, people proved that wrong. But one of the reasons it succeeded, aside from a good business model, a good idea, great execution, is the timing.
Mari lihat keberhasilan Airbnb yang semua orang tahu. Perusahaan itu dulu terkenal tidak ditengok banyak investor handal karena orang berpikir, "Takkan ada yang mau menyewakan rumahnya pada orang tak dikenal." Tentu saja, mereka terbukti salah. Tapi, salah satu hal yang mendukung kesuksesannya, disamping model bisnis yang baik, ide dan eksekusi yang baik, adalah waktu.
That company came out right during the height of the recession when people really needed extra money, and that maybe helped people overcome their objection to renting out their own home to a stranger.
Perusahaan ini muncul di puncak resesi saat orang memerlukan uang tambahan yang mungkin membantu mengatasi keberatan mereka menyewakan rumahnya pada orang asing.
Same thing with Uber. Uber came out, incredible company, incredible business model, great execution, too. But the timing was so perfect for their need to get drivers into the system. Drivers were looking for extra money; it was very, very important.
Sama seperti Uber. Ketika Uber keluar, perusahaannya hebat, model bisnisnya hebat, eksekusinya juga. Tapi waktunya sangat sempurna untuk menarik pengemudi bergabung. Pengemudi yang butuh uang tambahan, amat, sangat penting.
Some of our early successes, Citysearch, came out when people needed web pages. GoTo.com, which we announced actually at TED in 1998, was when companies were looking for cost-effective ways to get traffic. We thought the idea was so great, but actually, the timing was probably maybe more important. And then some of our failures. We started a company called Z.com, it was an online entertainment company. We were so excited about it -- we raised enough money, we had a great business model, we even signed incredibly great Hollywood talent to join the company. But broadband penetration was too low in 1999-2000. It was too hard to watch video content online, you had to put codecs in your browser and do all this stuff, and the company eventually went out of business in 2003.
Kisah sukses lainnya, Citisearch, muncul saat orang butuh situs web. GoTo.com, yang kami umumkan di TED pada 1998, muncul di saat perusahaan mencari cara efektif mengatasi lalu lintas. Kami pikir ini ide brilian, namun sebenarnya, ketepatan waktu berperan lebih penting. Lalu beberapa kegagalan kami. Kami memulai Z.com, sebuah perusahaan hiburan online. Kami bersemangat akan hal ini -- dananya cukup, bisnis modelnya hebat, kami bahkan punya kontrak dengan bintang Hollywood. Namun penetrasi broadband terlalu rendah pada 1999-2000. Sangat sulit menonton video online ketika itu, Anda butuh codecs dan melakukan banyak hal untuk menonton, dan perusahaan ini akhirnya tutup tahun 2003.
Just two years later, when the codec problem was solved by Adobe Flash and when broadband penetration crossed 50 percent in America, YouTube was perfectly timed. Great idea, but unbelievable timing. In fact, YouTube didn't even have a business model when it first started. It wasn't even certain that that would work out. But that was beautifully, beautifully timed.
Hanya dua tahun kemudian, ketika masalah codec terpecahkan oleh Adobe Flash dan ketika penetrasi broadband mencapai 50% di Amerika, YouTube hadir di saat yang tepat. Idenya brilian, tapi waktunya sangat tepat. Bahkan, YouTube tidak punya model bisnis saat dimulai. YouTube bahkan tidak yakin akan berhasil. Tapi saat kemunculannya, sangat sangat tepat.
So what I would say, in summary, is execution definitely matters a lot. The idea matters a lot. But timing might matter even more. And the best way to really assess timing is to really look at whether consumers are really ready for what you have to offer them. And to be really, really honest about it, not be in denial about any results that you see, because if you have something you love, you want to push it forward, but you have to be very, very honest about that factor on timing.
Jadi, dapat saya simpulkan, eksekusi sangat penting. Ide juga sangat berpengaruh. Tapi, mungkin waktu bahkan lebih penting lagi. Dan cara terbaik untuk memilih waktu yang tepat adalah dengan melihat apakah konsumen benar-benar siap untuk produk Anda. Dan Anda harus benar-benar jujur dan tidak menyangkal hasil analisa Anda karena bila kita menyukai sesuatu, kita ingin ia berhasil Tapi Anda harus benar-benar jujur tentang ketepatan waktunya. Seperti saya sampaikan,
As I said earlier, I think startups can change the world and make the world a better place. I hope some of these insights can maybe help you have a slightly higher success ratio, and thus make something great come to the world that wouldn't have happened otherwise.
Menurut saya startup bisa mengubah dunia dan membuatnya jadi lebih baik. Saya harap informasi ini dapat membantu Anda meraih rasio kesuksesan yang lebih tinggi, dan karenanya, membuat sesuatu yang hebat hadir di dunia.
Thank you very much, you've been a great audience.
Terima kasih sudah mendengarkan.
(Applause)
(Tepuk tangan)