I'm really excited to share with you some findings that really surprise me about what makes companies succeed the most, what factors actually matter the most for startup success.
Zaista sam uzbuđen podijeliti s vama pojedine pronalaske koji su me iznenadili o tome što čini da tvrtke najviše uspiju, koji čimbenici utječu najviše na uspjeh startup tvrtki.
I believe that the startup organization is one of the greatest forms to make the world a better place. If you take a group of people with the right equity incentives and organize them in a startup, you can unlock human potential in a way never before possible. You get them to achieve unbelievable things.
Vjerujem da su startup organizacije neke od najboljih oblika koji će učiniti svijet boljim mjestom. Ako uzmete grupu ljudi sa pravim poticajima pravičnosti i organizirate ih u startup, možete otključati ljudski potencijal na načine koji su dosad bili nemogući. Možete ih potaknuti da postignu nevjerojatne stvari.
But if the startup organization is so great, why do so many fail? That's what I wanted to find out. I wanted to find out what actually matters most for startup success.
Ali ako su startup organizacije tako sjajne, zašto ih toliko ne uspije? To sam želio saznati. Želi sam saznati što najviše utječe za uspjeh startup tvrtke.
And I wanted to try to be systematic about it, avoid some of my instincts and maybe misperceptions I have from so many companies I've seen over the years.
I želio sam biti sustavan u vezi toga, izbjeći svoje instinkte i možda pogrešne procjene koje imam od toliko tvrtki koje sam vidio tijekom godina.
I wanted to know this because I've been starting businesses since I was 12 years old when I sold candy at the bus stop in junior high school, to high school, when I made solar energy devices, to college, when I made loudspeakers. And when I graduated from college, I started software companies. And 20 years ago, I started Idealab, and in the last 20 years, we started more than 100 companies, many successes, and many big failures. We learned a lot from those failures.
Želio sam znati ovo zato što sam pokretao poslove od svoje dvanaeste godine kad sam prodao slatkiš na busnoj stanici u osnovnoj školi, pa u srednjoj školi, kad sam napravio solarne uređaje, pa na fakultetu, kad sam pravio razglas. A kad sam diplomirao, pokrenuo sam sotfverske tvrtke. Prije 20 godina sam pokrenuo Idealab, i posljednjih 20 godina smo pokrenuli više od 100 tvrtki, mnogo uspjeha, i mnogo velikih neuspjeha. Puno smo naučili iz tih neuspjeha.
So I tried to look across what factors accounted the most for company success and failure. So I looked at these five. First, the idea. I used to think that the idea was everything. I named my company Idealab for how much I worship the "aha!" moment when you first come up with the idea. But then over time, I came to think that maybe the team, the execution, adaptability, that mattered even more than the idea.
Zato sam pokušao pronaći čimbenike koji utječu na uspjeh ili neuspjeh tvrtki. Gledao sam ovih pet. Prvo, ideja. Uvijek sam mislio da je sve u ideji. Nazvao sam svoju tvrtku Idealab zbog toga što obožavam "Aha" trenutak kad prvi put dođete na ideju. Ali s vremenom, sam počeo vjerovati da možda tim, izvedba, prilagodba, znače mnogo više nego ideja.
I never thought I'd be quoting boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage, but he once said, "Everybody has a plan, until they get punched in the face." (Laughter) And I think that's so true about business as well. So much about a team's execution is its ability to adapt to getting punched in the face by the customer. The customer is the true reality. And that's why I came to think that the team maybe was the most important thing.
Nisam mislio da ću ikad citirati boksača Mikea Tysona na TED pozornici, ali on je jednom rekao, "Svi imaju plan, dok ih netko ne lupi usred face." (Smijeh) Vjerujem da je ovo istinito i u poslovnom svijetu. Tako da je izvedba tima većinom sposobnost da se prilagodi udarcu potrošača posred lica. Potrošač je istinska stvarnost. Zato sam pomislio da je možda tim najbitnija stvar.
Then I started looking at the business model. Does the company have a very clear path generating customer revenues? That started rising to the top in my thinking about maybe what mattered most for success.
Onda sam počeo gledati poslovne modele. Ima li tvrtka vrlo jasan put proizvodnje prihoda potrošača? To je potaknulo da pomislim što je najbitnije za uspjeh.
Then I looked at the funding. Sometimes companies received intense amounts of funding. Maybe that's the most important thing?
Onda sam gledao financiranje. Ponekad tvrtke dobiju intezivne količine financija. Možda je to najbitnija stvar?
And then of course, the timing. Is the idea way too early and the world's not ready for it? Is it early, as in, you're in advance and you have to educate the world? Is it just right? Or is it too late, and there's already too many competitors?
A onda naravno, tajming. Jel ideja uranila i svijet nije spreman na nju? Jel rano, kao da si napredan i moraš educirati svijet? Ili je u pravo vrijeme? Ili je prekasno, i već ima previše konkurencije?
So I tried to look very carefully at these five factors across many companies. And I looked across all 100 Idealab companies, and 100 non-Idealab companies to try and come up with something scientific about it.
Pa sam pregledavao vrlo pažljivo ovih pet čimbenika unutar mnogo tvrtki. Pogledao sam unutra svih 100 Idealab tvrtki, i 100 ne-Idealab tvrtki da probam doći do nečeg znanstvenog u vezi toga.
So first, on these Idealab companies, the top five companies -- Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo, NetZero, Tickets.com -- those all became billion-dollar successes. And the five companies on the bottom -- Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife, Desktop Factory, Peoplelink -- we all had high hopes for, but didn't succeed.
Prvo, kod Idealab tvrtki, prvih pet tvrtki -- Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo, NetZero, Tickets.com -- sve su postigle uspjeh od milijardu dolara. I pet tvrtki na dnu -- Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife, Desktop Factory, Peoplelink -- nadali smo se, ali nisu uspjeli.
So I tried to rank across all of those attributes how I felt those companies scored on each of those dimensions. And then for non-Idealab companies, I looked at wild successes, like Airbnb and Instagram and Uber and Youtube and LinkedIn.
Pa sam pokušao rangirati sve atribute kako sam mislio da su tvrtke postigle u svakoj od dimenzija. A za ne-Idealab tvrtke sam uzeo divlje uspjehe, kao Airbnb i Instagram i Uber i Youtube i Linkedin.
And some failures: Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com Flooz and Friendster. The bottom companies had intense funding, they even had business models in some cases, but they didn't succeed. I tried to look at what factors actually accounted the most for success and failure across all of these companies, and the results really surprised me.
I neke neuspjele: Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com Flooz i Friendster. Tvrtke na dnu su imale velika ulaganja, neke su imale i poslovne modele, ali nisu uspjeli. Pokušao sam saznati koji čimbenici najviše utječu na uspjeh i neuspjeh kod svih ovih tvrtki, i rezultati su me iznenadili.
The number one thing was timing. Timing accounted for 42 percent of the difference between success and failure. Team and execution came in second, and the idea, the differentiability of the idea, the uniqueness of the idea, that actually came in third.
Prva stvar je bio tajming. Tajming je značio 42 posto razlike između uspjeha i neuspjeha. Tim i izvedba su na drugom mjestu, a ideja, različitost ideje, jedinstvenost ideje, je bila na trećem mjestu.
Now, this isn't absolutely definitive, it's not to say that the idea isn't important, but it very much surprised me that the idea wasn't the most important thing. Sometimes it mattered more when it was actually timed.
Ovo nije apsolutno konačno, ne kažem da ideja nije bitna, ali me veoma iznenadilo što ideja nije najvažnija stvar. Ponekad je bilo bitnije kad je zaista iznesena.
The last two, business model and funding, made sense to me actually. I think business model makes sense to be that low because you can start out without a business model and add one later if your customers are demanding what you're creating. And funding, I think as well, if you're underfunded at first but you're gaining traction, especially in today's age, it's very, very easy to get intense funding.
Zadnja dva, posao i financiranje, su mi imali smisla. Mislim ima smisla da je poslovni model tako nisko jer možete početi posao bez poslovnog modela a onda ga napraviti kasnije kad to potrošači budu zahtijevali. I financiranje, mislim, ako nemate dovoljno sredstava na početku a dobivate na privlačnosti, pogotovo u današnjem dobu, vrlo, vrlo je lako doći do ozbiljnih ulaganja.
So now let me give you some specific examples about each of these. So take a wild success like Airbnb that everybody knows about. Well, that company was famously passed on by many smart investors because people thought, "No one's going to rent out a space in their home to a stranger." Of course, people proved that wrong. But one of the reasons it succeeded, aside from a good business model, a good idea, great execution, is the timing.
Sada ću vam pokazati nekoliko određenih primjera za svaki od ovih. Uzmite divlji uspjeh kao što je Airbnb za koji svi znaju. Tu tvrtku su slavno svi pametni investitori zaobilazili jer su ljudi mislili, "Nitko neće iznajmiti svoj prostor u kući strancu." Naravno, ljudi su pokazali suprotno. Ali jedan od razloga što su uspjeli, uz dobar poslovni model, dobru ideju, odličnu izvedbu, je tajming.
That company came out right during the height of the recession when people really needed extra money, and that maybe helped people overcome their objection to renting out their own home to a stranger.
Ta tvrtka se pojavila upravo u vrijeme vrhunca recesije kad je ljudima trebao dodatni novac, i to je možda pomoglo ljudima da prevladaju prigovore iznajmljivanju svog doma strancu.
Same thing with Uber. Uber came out, incredible company, incredible business model, great execution, too. But the timing was so perfect for their need to get drivers into the system. Drivers were looking for extra money; it was very, very important.
Ista stvar i sa Uberom. Uber se pojavio, nevjerojatna tvrtka, nevjerojatan poslovni model, odlična izvedba, isto. Ali je tajming bio savršen da uvedu vozače u sustav. Vozači su tražili dodatni novac, to je bilo veoma važno.
Some of our early successes, Citysearch, came out when people needed web pages. GoTo.com, which we announced actually at TED in 1998, was when companies were looking for cost-effective ways to get traffic. We thought the idea was so great, but actually, the timing was probably maybe more important. And then some of our failures. We started a company called Z.com, it was an online entertainment company. We were so excited about it -- we raised enough money, we had a great business model, we even signed incredibly great Hollywood talent to join the company. But broadband penetration was too low in 1999-2000. It was too hard to watch video content online, you had to put codecs in your browser and do all this stuff, and the company eventually went out of business in 2003.
Neki od naših uspjeha, Citysearch, su se pojavili kad je ljudima trebala web stranica. GoTo.com, koji smo zapravo najavili na TED 1998. godine, se pojavio kad su tvrtkama trebali isplativi načini da povećaju promet. Mislili smo da je ideja izvrsna, ali je zapravo tajming bio možda bitniji. I onda neki od naših neuspjeha. Pokrenuli smo tvrtku imena Z.com, online tvrtka za zabavu. Bili smo vrlo uzbuđeni -- prikupili smo dovoljno novaca, imali smo izvrstan poslovni model, čak smo potpisali ugovor sa nevjerojatnim Hollywoodskim talentom. Ali je prodiranje širokopojasnih usluga bilo prenisko 1999-2000. Bilo je teško gledati video sadržaj online, morali ste instalirati codece u svoj pretraživač i sve te stvari, i tvrtka je naposlijetku propala 2003. godine.
Just two years later, when the codec problem was solved by Adobe Flash and when broadband penetration crossed 50 percent in America, YouTube was perfectly timed. Great idea, but unbelievable timing. In fact, YouTube didn't even have a business model when it first started. It wasn't even certain that that would work out. But that was beautifully, beautifully timed.
Samo dvije godine poslije, kada je Adobe Flash rješio problem codeca i kad je prodiranje širokopojasnih usluga prešlo 50% u Americi, Youtube je imao savršen tajming. Odlična ideja, nevjerojatan tajming. Ustvari, Youtube nije čak imao ni poslovni model kad je krenio. Nisu bili sigurni da će uspjeti. Ali to je bilo divno, predivno tempirano.
So what I would say, in summary, is execution definitely matters a lot. The idea matters a lot. But timing might matter even more. And the best way to really assess timing is to really look at whether consumers are really ready for what you have to offer them. And to be really, really honest about it, not be in denial about any results that you see, because if you have something you love, you want to push it forward, but you have to be very, very honest about that factor on timing.
Želim reći, dakle, izvedba puno znači. Ideja također puno znači. Ali tajming znači više. Najbolji način da se procijeni tajming je da pogledate jesu li potrošači zaista spremni za ono što im nudite. I da budete zaista, zaista iskreni u vezi toga, a ne da poričete rezultate koje vidite. jer ako imate nešto što volite, želite da se probije. ali morate biti veoma, veoma iskreni u vezi tajminga.
As I said earlier, I think startups can change the world and make the world a better place. I hope some of these insights can maybe help you have a slightly higher success ratio, and thus make something great come to the world that wouldn't have happened otherwise.
Kao što sam već rekao Mislim da startup tvrtke mogu promijeniti i poboljšati svijet. Nadam se da vam ovi uvidi mogu možda pomoći da imate malo veći odnos uspjeha, i tako pomognete da nešto odlično zaživi u svijetu što inače ne bi.
Thank you very much, you've been a great audience.
Mnogo vam hvala, bili ste divna publika.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)