By birth and by choice, I've been involved with the auto industry my entire life, and for the past 30 years, I've worked at Ford Motor Company. And for most of those years, I worried about, how am I going to sell more cars and trucks? But today I worry about, what if all we do is sell more cars and trucks? What happens when the number of vehicles on the road doubles, triples, or even quadruples?
既是上帝的安排也是自我的選擇 終其一生,我都與汽車行業有著不解之緣 30年來 我一直在福特汽車公司工作 在這期間 我擔心得最多的是 怎樣才能把更多的轎車卡車賣出去 現在我最擔心的是 我們一直這麼做的話會有什麽後果呢 如果路上的車輛 翻了一倍,兩倍,三倍,甚至四倍 會有什麽後果
My life is guided by two great passions, and the first is automobiles. I literally grew up with the Ford Motor Company. I thought it was so cool as a little boy when my dad would bring home the latest Ford or Lincoln and leave it in the driveway. And I decided about that time, about age 10, that it would be really cool if I was a test driver. So my parents would go to dinner. They'd sit down; I'd sneak out of the house. I'd jump behind the wheel and take the new model around the driveway, and it was a blast. And that went on for about two years, until -- I think I was about 12 -- my dad brought home a Lincoln Mark III. And it was snowing that day. So he and mom went to dinner, and I snuck out and thought it'd be really cool to do donuts or even some figure-eights in the snow. My dad finished dinner early that evening. And he was walking to the front hall and out the front door just about the same time I hit some ice and met him at the front door with the car -- and almost ended up in the front hall. So it kind of cooled my test-driving for a little while. But I really began to love cars then. And my first car was a 1975 electric-green Mustang. And even though the color was pretty hideous, I did love the car, and it really cemented my love affair with cars that's continued on to this day.
我的生命被兩種強大的熱情左右著 第一就是汽車 事實上,我是隨福特公司一同成長的 我還是個小孩的時候 爸爸偶爾會把最新款的福特或林肯汽車開回家,停在門前的大道上 這真是太酷了 那時的我大概10歲 我想,如果能當上汽車試駕員,該有多好啊 於是趁父母去吃晚飯 他們坐下了,我就偷溜出去 跳上駕駛座,把新傢伙開上車道到處趴趴走 太過癮了 我就這麼玩了兩年 直到--我大概12歲-- 有一天我爸爸把一台林肯 III 開回家 那天正好在下雪 他和媽媽去吃晚飯 我溜了出去 我覺得(開車)在雪上畫0字型 或8字型肯定特別好玩 但那晚爸爸的晚飯時間比往常要少 他走向客廳 正要出門 我就在這時不巧撞到了冰 在大門口和他撞了個正著 還差點沖進了客廳 這一度讓我不想做試駕員了 但從此以後,我就開始為車瘋狂了 我第一台車是1975年的電光綠野馬 儘管顏色真的很難看 但我相當喜歡它 它堅定了我對車狂熱的愛好 這種熱情也延續至今
But cars are really more than a passion of mine; they're quite literally in my blood. My great grandfather was Henry Ford, and on my mother's side, my great grandfather was Harvey Firestone. So when I was born, I guess you could say expectations were kind of high for me. But my great grandfather, Henry Ford, really believed that the mission of the Ford Motor Company was to make people's lives better and make cars affordable so that everyone could have them. Because he believed that with mobility comes freedom and progress. And that's a belief that I share.
但汽車不只是作為我的熱情存在的 我和它的緣分是與生俱來的 我的曾祖父是亨利•福特 而我的曾外祖父 是哈维·費爾斯通 我的出生 我猜你們肯定覺得我肩負眾望吧 但我的曾祖父亨利•福特 鑒定地相信福特汽車的使命 是讓人們的生活更美好 讓每一個人都買得起汽車 因為他相信,有了移動能力 就會有自由和進步 這也是我一直堅信的
My other great passion is the environment. And as a young boy, I used to go up to Northern Michigan and fish in the rivers that Hemingway fished in and then later wrote about. And it really struck me as the years went by, in a very negative way, when I would go to some stream that I'd loved, and was used to walking through this field that was once filled with fireflies, and now had a strip mall or a bunch of condos on it. And so even at a young age, that really resonated with me, and the whole notion of environmental preservation, at a very basic level, sunk in with me.
我的另一樣熱情是環保 還是個少年的時候,我常去密歇根州北部 在海明威釣過魚的那條河釣魚 那地方他在書中提過 幾年後 這裡的變化 卻著實令我震驚 當我重回小時候最喜歡的那條溪 穿越從前那片 螢火蟲飛舞的田野 眼前卻是鋼筋水泥的商場和公寓 雖然當時很年輕 我的內心卻被深深撼動了 保護環境的意識 在我心中油然而生
As a high-schooler, I started to read authors like Thoreau and Aldo Leopold and Edward Abbey, and I really began to develop a deeper appreciation of the natural world. But it never really occurred to me that my love of cars and trucks would ever be in conflict with nature. And that was true until I got to college. And when I got to college, you can imagine my surprise when I would go to class and a number of my professors would say that Ford Motor Company and my family was everything that was wrong with our country. They thought that we were more interested, as an industry, in profits, rather than progress, and that we filled the skies with smog -- and frankly, we were the enemy.
上高中以後,我開始讀 梭羅,奧爾多·利奧波德,愛德華•艾比 等作家的書 我開始對自然界 產生了一種更深層的仰慕 但我從未想過 我摯愛的汽車竟然會 與自然界背道而馳 直到上大學 我都是這麼認為的 當我上了大學,你們可以想像我有多吃驚 因為我上課時 許多教授都會譴責說 福特公司,包括我的家庭 所做的一切都與國家發展背道而馳 他們認為我們這個行業 更重視盈利,而不是發展 我們讓天空充滿廢氣 再直白一點就是,我們是敵人
I joined Ford after college, after some soul searching whether or not this is really the right thing to do. But I decided that I wanted to go and see if I could affect change there. And as I look back over 30 years ago, it was a little naive to think at that age that I could. But I wanted to. And I really discovered that my professors weren't completely wrong. In fact, when I got back to Detroit, my environmental leanings weren't exactly embraced by those in my own company, and certainly by those in the industry. I had some very interesting conversations, as you can imagine. There were some within Ford who believed that all this ecological nonsense should just disappear and that I needed to stop hanging out with "environmental wackos." I was considered a radical. And I'll never forget the day I was called in by a member of top management and told to stop associating with any known or suspected environmentalists. (Laughter) Of course, I had no intention of doing that, and I kept speaking out about the environment, and it really was the topic that we now today call sustainability. And in time, my views went from controversial to more or less consensus today. I mean, I think most people in the industry understand that we've got to get on with it.
畢業後,我進入了福特 我思來想去 這是否是最佳的選擇 但最終我決定去嘗試 看看我能不能改變它的形象 回過頭看30年前的自己 那時我很自信很天真 可我非常想這麼做 然後我發現 教授的話也有一定道理 實際上,我回到底特律以後 我提出的環保想法 並沒有被公司員工所接受 更別說同行的公司了 我經歷過一些挺有趣的談話 你們可以想像了到 在福特公司有些人認為 這種環保的想法全是胡扯 不該存在的 而我不應該 再與那些“環保主義怪人”為伍 我被視為激進分子了 我永遠不會忘記,那天,我被一名高層叫過去 說我不可以再跟那些 環保主義分子有任何關係 (笑聲) 我當然沒有這麼做 我還是倡導環保 而我所謂的環保 就是今天所說的永續發展 最終我的想法從當时的備受爭議 變成了大家如今的共識 就是說,我想汽車行業的每個人 都知道我們需要採取措施了
And the good news is today we are tackling the big issues, of cars and the environment -- not only at Ford, but really as an industry. We're pushing fuel efficiency to new heights. And with new technology, we're reducing -- and I believe, someday we'll eliminate -- CO2 emissions. We're starting to sell electric cars, which is great. We're developing alternative powertrains that are going to make cars affordable in every sense of the word -- economically, socially and environmentally. And actually, although we've got a long way to go and a lot of work to do, I can see the day where my two great passions -- cars and the environment -- actually come into harmony.
好消息是,我們已經開始解決這些關於 汽車及環保的重要問題 不僅是福特公司,整個行業都在努力 我們把能源效率提升到一個新的至高點 透過新技術 我們正在減少CO2排放,並且相信有天我們會 把它完全消除 我們開始銷售電能車,這是個很好的點子 我們在開發替代能源 這將降低製造和使用汽車 所付出的代價 不管是經濟上,社會上 還是環境方面 的確,我們還有很長的路要走 很多困難需要克服 但我堅信,我生命中那兩種執著的熱情 汽車與環保 相互融合的那天並不遙遠
But unfortunately, as we're on our way to solving one monstrous problem -- and as I said, we're not there yet; we've got a lot of work to do, but I can see where we will -- but even as we're in the process of doing that, another huge problem is looming, and people aren't noticing. And that is the freedom of mobility that my great grandfather brought to people is now being threatened, just as the environment is. The problem, put in its simplest terms, is one of mathematics. Today there are approximately 6.8 billion people in the world, and within our lifetime, that number's going to grow to about nine billion. And at that population level, our planet will be dealing with the limits of growth. And with that growth comes some severe practical problems, one of which is our transportation system simply won't be able to deal with it.
不幸的是 雖然我們正在著手解决這個可怕的問題 我說過,我們現在還面臨著很多困難 可我知道我們會成功 在我們努力的同時 另一個大問題也浮出水面了 一個近乎被忽視的問題 那就是自由移動 這是我曾祖父最先所提出的 可現在它正和自然一樣,面臨著威脅 簡單來說,這是一個 數學性的問題 目前世界大概有68億人 在我們一生中,這個數字可能上升到 90億左右 那麼多人的話 地球的負荷能力將被推至極限 人口急劇增長 也帶來了日益嚴峻的實際問題 其中一個就是交通問題 可以說,這是我們的交通體系完全無法承載的
When we look at the population growth in terms of cars, it becomes even clearer. Today there are about 800 million cars on the road worldwide. But with more people and greater prosperity around the world, that number's going to grow to between two and four billion cars by mid century. And this is going to create the kind of global gridlock that the world has never seen before. Now think about the impact that this is going to have on our daily lives. Today the average American spends about a week a year stuck in traffic jams, and that's a huge waste of time and resources. But that's nothing compared to what's going on in the nations that are growing the fastest. Today the average driver in Beijing has a five-hour commute. And last summer -- many of you probably saw this -- there was a hundred-mile traffic jam that took 11 days to clear in China. In the decades to come, 75 percent of the world's population will live in cities, and 50 of those cities will be of 10 million people or more.
如果從汽車數量的角度來看人口增長 結論就更明顯了 目前全球共有約8億台汽車 但隨著人數增加 和全球財富的不斷增長 汽車數量必定會增加 在本世紀中期,全球會有20-40億台汽車 這可能造成史無前例的 全球性交通癱瘓 請想想這會給我們 日常生活帶來怎樣的影響 在今天,美國平均每人 每年會有一個星期 是在交通堵塞中度過的 這可是對時間和資源的極大浪費 可是,相比之下 在某些飛速發展的國家 美國這點問題就變得微不足道了 在北京,平均每個駕駛者 擁有5小時通勤時間 去年夏天,許多在場聽眾可能也目睹了, 中國100英里的汽車長龍 那次堵車過了11天才被疏通 在未來的幾十年中 世界75%的人口將會 居住在城市 這其中將有50個城市 人口過億
So you can see the size of the issue that we're facing. When you factor in population growth, it's clear that the mobility model that we have today simply will not work tomorrow. Frankly, four billion clean cars on the road are still four billion cars, and a traffic jam with no emissions is still a traffic jam. So, if we make no changes today, what does tomorrow look like? Well I think you probably already have the picture. Traffic jams are just a symptom of this challenge, and they're really very, very inconvenient, but that's all they are. But the bigger issue is that global gridlock is going to stifle economic growth and our ability to deliver food and health care, particularly to people that live in city centers. And our quality of life is going to be severely compromised. So what's going to solve this?
可見我們所面臨的問題有多大 考慮人口增長的話,我們可以 清楚地知道,現行的交通模式根本無法 在未來沿用 說到底,即便變成40億環保汽車 還是有這麼多車在路上 即便是無污染的交通堵塞 也改變不了癱瘓的交通 因此,如果我們今天不採取措施 明天會怎樣 我想結局大家都能料到吧 塞車現象只是我們所面臨的挑戰中的 一個小小癥候,他們真的很不方便 但也不會有什麽嚴重後果 更大的問題在於 將來全球性的交通堵塞 很可能成為經濟增長的絆腳石 我們的食物供應 衛生保健服務 會受到阻礙,尤其在市中心地區 我們的生活品質也將受到相當大的威脅 那麼我們要怎麼做呢
Well the answer isn't going to be more of the same. My great grandfather once said before he invented the Model T, "If I had asked people then what they wanted, they would have answered, 'We want faster horses.'" So the answer to more cars is simply not to have more roads. When America began moving west, we didn't add more wagon trains, we built railroads. And to connect our country after World War II, we didn't build more two-lane highways, we built the interstate highway system. Today we need that same leap in thinking for us to create a viable future. We are going to build smart cars, but we also need to build smart roads, smart parking, smart public transportation systems and more. We don't want to waste our time sitting in traffic, sitting at tollbooths or looking for parking spots. We need an integrated system that uses real time data to optimize personal mobility on a massive scale without hassle or compromises for travelers. And frankly, that's the kind of system that's going to make the future of personal mobility sustainable.
我們不能再用以前的方式了 我曾祖父在發明T型汽車前 對我說 “如果我問過去的人他們要什麽 他們會說 我們要跑得更快的馬” 所以更多的道路 並不能解決這個問題 當美國開始西進時 我們並不是去瘋狂增加馬車數量 我們建了鐵路 二戰後,我們並沒有去修建 更多的雙車道公路 而是建立起洲際高速公路系統 今天我們同樣需要這種偉大的跳躍性思維 來創造一個可實現的未來 我們會製造出智能汽車 我們同樣需要建立 智能公路,智能停車場 智能交通系統等等 我們不想再把時間浪費在 堵塞的道路,收費站 或者在尋找車位上了 我們需要一個整合的體系 它要能通過及時數據 大規模地優化個體車輛的自由移動度 而不會造成駕駛者之間的爭吵和妥協 事實上,這就是那種 能促進未來個體移動更具持續性的系統
Now the good news is some of this work has already begun in different parts of the world. The city of Masdar in Abu Dhabi uses driverless electric vehicles that can communicate with one another, and they go underneath the city streets. And up above, you've got a series of pedestrian walkways. On New York City's 34th Street, gridlock will soon be replaced with a connected system of vehicle-specific corridors. Pedestrian zones and dedicated traffic lanes are going to be created, and all of this will cut down the average rush hour commute to get across town in New York from about an hour today at rush hour to about 20 minutes. Now if you look at Hong Kong, they have a very interesting system called Octopus there. It's a system that really ties together all the transportation assets into a single payment system. So parking garages, buses, trains, they all operate within the same system. Now shared car services are also springing up around the world, and these efforts, I think, are great. They're relieving congestion, and they're frankly starting to save some fuel.
好消息是,這其中的一些工作在世界各地 已有了進展 在阿布達比的馬斯達爾市 已經出現了無人駕駛的電動汽車 這些車可以相互聯繫 它們行駛在地下車道上 而地面上,有一系列的人行步道 在纽约城的第34街 交通堵塞不久將通過 一個連接著汽車專用車道的 網絡系統得到解決 行人區,車輛專用通道也將出現 所有的這些,都將減少紐約高峰期的 平均通勤時間 大概可以從目前的1個小時 減少到20分鐘左右 再看看香港 他們創建了一個有趣的系統叫“八達通” 通過“八達通” 所有交通費用 都可方便地支付 停車場,公車,火車 都是在同一個系統下運轉的 現在共用汽車服務 在世界各位都蓬勃發展起來了 我認為這些嘗試棒極了 這樣可以減輕堵塞 也可以減少燃料的消耗
These are all really good ideas that will move us forward. But what really inspires me is what's going to be possible when our cars can begin talking to each other. Very soon, the same systems that we use today to bring music and entertainment and GPS information into our vehicles are going to be used to create a smart vehicle network. Every morning I drive about 30 miles from my home in Ann Arbor to my office in Dearborn, Michigan. And every night I go home, my commute is a total crapshoot. And I often have to leave the freeway and look for different ways for me to try and make it home. But very soon we're going to see the days when cars are essentially talking to each other. So if the car ahead of me on I-94 hits traffic, it will immediately alert my car and tell my car to reroute itself to get me home in the best possible way. And these systems are being tested right now, and frankly they're going to be ready for prime time pretty soon.
這些都是很好的想法 使我們不斷進步的想法 但真正激發我興趣的是 當汽車可以相互聯繫 之後會發生什麽呢 那些在今天用來給我們 帶來音樂,娛樂 和導航信息的系統 將被改造成一個 智能汽車網絡系統 每天早上,我都要從安亞伯的家中 行駛30英里到密歇根州迪爾本的辦公室 每當晚上下班了 我回家的路總是充滿了風險 我經常被迫開下高速公路 去找別的路 然後摸索著回家 但是很快我們就能看到 能相互交流的汽車出現了 如果前面的車在公路上發生車禍 它會立刻警示我的車 並告知它自動去尋找 另一條回家的最佳路線 這類通訊系統目前已經在實驗期了 它們很快就能與我們見面了
But the potential of a connected car network is almost limitless. So just imagine: one day very soon, you're going to be able to plan a trip downtown and your car will be connected to a smart parking system. So you get in your car, and as you get in your car, your car will reserve you a parking spot before you arrive -- no more driving around looking for one, which frankly is one of the biggest users of fuel in today's cars in urban areas -- is looking for parking spots. Or think about being in New York City and tracking down an intelligent cab on your smart phone so you don't have to wait in the cold to hail one. Or being at a future TED Conference and having your car talk to the calendars of everybody here and telling you all the best route to take home and when you should leave so that you can all arrive at your next destination on time. This is the kind of technology that will merge millions of individual vehicles into a single system.
但是汽車通訊網絡的潛力 是無窮的 想像一下: 不久的將來 你想去市區走走 你的車會接入智能停車系統 你上了車 還沒到市區 你的車早已為你預約好了一個車位 再也不用辛苦地找車位 我們都知道,如今在市區里 尋找車位是汽油的 一大殺手 我們再想像,在未來的紐約城 你可以用智能手機預約智能出租車 不再需要在寒冷中攔車了 或者在未來TED的會議上 你可以利用你的車 與在場所有人聯繫 並告訴你返家的最佳路線 和離開的最佳時間 這樣你就可以準時到達下一個目的地 這種科技會把 上百萬台汽車統一整合至 一個網絡
So I think it's clear we have the beginnings of a solution to this enormous problem. But as we found out with addressing CO2 issues, and also fossil fuels, there is no one silver bullet. The solution is not going to be more cars, more roads or a new rail system; it can only be found, I believe, in a global network of interconnected solutions. Now I know we can develop the technology that's going to make this work, but we've got to be willing to get out there and seek out the solutions -- whether that means vehicle sharing or public transportation or some other way we haven't even thought of yet; our overall transportation-mix and infrastructure must support all the future options.
可以說,對於這個巨大的問題,我們已經 有了一個好的開頭 但是,如同我們解決CO2的問題 化石燃料的問題 沒有一種方法是萬能的 我們的解決方法不能是 更多車,更多車道,或者新的鐵路系統 我堅信,這需要 一個全球性 多方合作的網絡來解決 這當中所需要的技術 我們有能力研發出來 我們需要的是用堅強的意志 去找到解決方案 無論這意味著共用汽車還是公共交通 或者其他我們沒想過的方式 我們整體的交通組合與基礎設施 都必須能夠滿足未來所有需求
We need our best and our brightest to start entertaining this issue. Companies, entrepreneurs, venture capitalists, they all need to understand this is a huge business opportunity, as well as an enormous social problem. And just as these groups embrace the green energy challenge -- and it's really been amazing to me to watch how much brain power, how much money and how much serious thought has, really over the last three years, just poured into the green energy field. We need that same kind of passion and energy to attack global gridlock. But we need people like all of you in this room, leading thinkers. I mean, frankly, I need all of you to think about how you can help solve this huge issue. And we need people from all walks of life; not just inventors, we need policymakers and government officials to also think about how they're going to respond to this challenge.
我們要讓最優秀的人 去處理這個問題 公司夥伴,企業家,風險投資家 他們都需要知道 這將是一個巨大的商機 也是一個非常大的社會問題 當他們開始 面對綠色能源挑戰的同時 我看到這三年來 有那麼多努力,那麼多錢 那麼多想法 統統花在綠色能源問題上 這令我很吃驚 我們在解決全球性交通問題上需要 同樣的熱情與努力 我們更需要像在場各位一樣的 前衛思想者 事實上,我需要你們 去設想 你會怎麼解決這個大問題 我們需要各行各業的人們 不僅是發明家,我們需要決策者 政府官員們 去思考他們要如何面對這個挑戰
This isn't going to be solved by any one person or one group. It's going to really require a national energy policy, frankly for each country, because the solutions in each country are going to be different based upon income levels, traffic jams and also how integrated the systems already are. But we need to get going, and we need to get going today. And we must have an infrastructure that's designed to support this flexible future.
問題是無法通過 個體的努力,或某個集團來解決的 它要求每個國家都能有一個全國性的 能源政策 因為各國的解決方式是不同的 這基於各國不同的收入水平,交通狀況 以及目前 網絡的統一程度 但我們必須採取行動了,就現在 我們需要設計出完善的 基礎設施來應對 多變的未來
You know, we've come a long way. Since the Model T, most people never traveled more than 25 miles from home in their entire lifetime. And since then, the automobile has allowed us the freedom to choose where we live, where we work, where we play and frankly when we just go out and want to move around. We don't want to regress and lose that freedom. We're on our way to solving -- and as I said earlier, I know we've got a long way to go -- the one big issue that we're all focused on that threatens it, and that's the environmental issue, but I believe we all must turn all of our effort and all of our ingenuity and determination to help now solve this notion of global gridlock. Because in doing so, we're going to preserve what we've really come to take for granted, which is the freedom to move and move very effortlessly around the world. And it frankly will enhance our quality of life if we fix this. Because, if you can envision, as I do, a future of zero emissions and freedom to move around the country and around the world like we take for granted today, that's worth the hard work today to preserve that for tomorrow.
我們歷經長途跋涉才走到這裡 T型汽車上市前 大多數人都不曾 或可能一輩子都不會, 到離家超過25英里的地方 但從那時起 汽車賦予了我們選擇居住環境 工作環境,娛樂環境的自由 也就是說 我們可以自由選擇什麽時候出去,去哪兒等等 我們不會倒退更不願失去那種自由 雖然我說過,我們還有 很長的路要走,我們已經在著手解決它了 這個我們一直關注的大問題威脅著汽車的自由移動 那就是環境問題 但我堅信,我們必須 投入全部的努力,創造力與決心 來解決所謂的全球性交通堵塞 因為只有這樣 我們才能保護好一直被我們理所當然而擁有 在世界各地 輕鬆自在穿梭的自由 如果我們真能做到,那我們的生活品質 定能著實上升了 你們像我這樣去展望,就會知道 在零碳排放的未來 我們自由自在的穿梭於世界 就像現在我們視為是理所當然的一樣 這樣的生活值得我們 用現在的努力去換取明天的擁有
I believe we're at our best when we're confronted with big issues. This is a big one, and it won't wait. So let's get started now.
我相信我們始終都在用最好的狀態 面對各種重大的挑戰 這是一個巨大的挑戰,也不容等待 所以,現在就開始改變吧
Thank you.
謝謝
(Applause)
(掌聲)