By birth and by choice, I've been involved with the auto industry my entire life, and for the past 30 years, I've worked at Ford Motor Company. And for most of those years, I worried about, how am I going to sell more cars and trucks? But today I worry about, what if all we do is sell more cars and trucks? What happens when the number of vehicles on the road doubles, triples, or even quadruples?
我这辈子与汽车的不解之缘 既是与生俱来又是个人的选择 过去30年里 我一直在福特汽车公司工作 过去 我关心的总是 如何把更多的汽车卖出去 而今天我所担心的是 如果我们所做的仅仅只是卖出更多的汽车 如果路上的车辆数量 翻了一倍,两倍,甚至三倍 会有什么后果?
My life is guided by two great passions, and the first is automobiles. I literally grew up with the Ford Motor Company. I thought it was so cool as a little boy when my dad would bring home the latest Ford or Lincoln and leave it in the driveway. And I decided about that time, about age 10, that it would be really cool if I was a test driver. So my parents would go to dinner. They'd sit down; I'd sneak out of the house. I'd jump behind the wheel and take the new model around the driveway, and it was a blast. And that went on for about two years, until -- I think I was about 12 -- my dad brought home a Lincoln Mark III. And it was snowing that day. So he and mom went to dinner, and I snuck out and thought it'd be really cool to do donuts or even some figure-eights in the snow. My dad finished dinner early that evening. And he was walking to the front hall and out the front door just about the same time I hit some ice and met him at the front door with the car -- and almost ended up in the front hall. So it kind of cooled my test-driving for a little while. But I really began to love cars then. And my first car was a 1975 electric-green Mustang. And even though the color was pretty hideous, I did love the car, and it really cemented my love affair with cars that's continued on to this day.
我一生所钟爱的有两样事物 第一样就是汽车 我其实就是在福特汽车公司里长大的 儿时 当父亲把最新版的福特或林肯车开回家,停在路边 我觉得这真是太酷了 十岁的时候我下定决心 要是我能当上测试驾驶员,那该多好啊 我的父母去吃晚餐的时候 等他们一坐下来,我就偷偷溜出去 跳上驾驶座,开着新车到路上遛弯 真是太过瘾了 就这么过了两年 直到--我大概12岁-- 我父亲把一辆林肯MarkIII 开回家 那一天正好下雪 他和妈妈去吃晚餐 我就溜了出去 我想在雪里转几个圈 再走几个8字,应该会很酷 我父亲当晚提早吃好了晚餐 他走到前厅 走到前门 与此同时,我的车撞上了一块冰 冲到了前门,被他撞个正着 还差点冲进前厅 这次经历让我的试车生涯暂告一段落 但从那以后我真正地爱上了汽车 我的第一辆车就是1975年产的电光绿野马 尽管颜色相当难看 但我非常喜爱这辆车 它实实在在地奠定了我对车的迷恋 这种感情延续至今
But cars are really more than a passion of mine; they're quite literally in my blood. My great grandfather was Henry Ford, and on my mother's side, my great grandfather was Harvey Firestone. So when I was born, I guess you could say expectations were kind of high for me. But my great grandfather, Henry Ford, really believed that the mission of the Ford Motor Company was to make people's lives better and make cars affordable so that everyone could have them. Because he believed that with mobility comes freedom and progress. And that's a belief that I share.
汽车不仅仅是我所喜爱的事物 我跟它们的缘分是与生俱来的 我的曾祖父就是亨利.福特 而在我母亲那边 我的曾外公就是哈卫.凡士通 我一出生 就肩负众望 而我的曾祖父亨利.福特 坚定地相信福特汽车公司的使命 就是让人们的生活更美好 让所有人都买得起车 他相信,有了动力 就有了自由和进步 我也是这么相信的
My other great passion is the environment. And as a young boy, I used to go up to Northern Michigan and fish in the rivers that Hemingway fished in and then later wrote about. And it really struck me as the years went by, in a very negative way, when I would go to some stream that I'd loved, and was used to walking through this field that was once filled with fireflies, and now had a strip mall or a bunch of condos on it. And so even at a young age, that really resonated with me, and the whole notion of environmental preservation, at a very basic level, sunk in with me.
而我热爱的第二样事物就是环境 我曾去过密歇根州北部 在海明威钓过鱼的地方钓鱼 他后来在书上写到过这里 多年之后 这里的变化 让我感到震惊 我曾去到我喜爱的小溪 步行穿越那片 飞满了萤火虫的田地 而现在那里变成了商场或公寓区 因此即使当时我还年少 这还是给了我很大的震动 保护环境的基本意识 就在我内心扎根了
As a high-schooler, I started to read authors like Thoreau and Aldo Leopold and Edward Abbey, and I really began to develop a deeper appreciation of the natural world. But it never really occurred to me that my love of cars and trucks would ever be in conflict with nature. And that was true until I got to college. And when I got to college, you can imagine my surprise when I would go to class and a number of my professors would say that Ford Motor Company and my family was everything that was wrong with our country. They thought that we were more interested, as an industry, in profits, rather than progress, and that we filled the skies with smog -- and frankly, we were the enemy.
上高中后,我开始阅读 梭罗,阿尔多.李奥帕德 和爱德华.艾比等作家的书 我对于自然世界 萌生了更深层次的感情 我从来没有想过 我对汽车和卡车的挚爱 竟然会与自然相冲突 我的确是这样认为的 直到我上了大学 初到大学,你们可以想象得到我的惊讶 上课时 教授们会说 美国之所以出现问题 全都是福特汽车公司以及我们家族的责任 他们认为我们注重的是整个行业是否赚钱 而不是进步 是我们让天空乌烟瘴气 我们是国家的大敌
I joined Ford after college, after some soul searching whether or not this is really the right thing to do. But I decided that I wanted to go and see if I could affect change there. And as I look back over 30 years ago, it was a little naive to think at that age that I could. But I wanted to. And I really discovered that my professors weren't completely wrong. In fact, when I got back to Detroit, my environmental leanings weren't exactly embraced by those in my own company, and certainly by those in the industry. I had some very interesting conversations, as you can imagine. There were some within Ford who believed that all this ecological nonsense should just disappear and that I needed to stop hanging out with "environmental wackos." I was considered a radical. And I'll never forget the day I was called in by a member of top management and told to stop associating with any known or suspected environmentalists. (Laughter) Of course, I had no intention of doing that, and I kept speaking out about the environment, and it really was the topic that we now today call sustainability. And in time, my views went from controversial to more or less consensus today. I mean, I think most people in the industry understand that we've got to get on with it.
大学毕业后我进入了福特公司 在此之前我对此举是否明智 做了一些思想斗争 而我最终决定进入公司 看看是否能够做出改变 回想三十年前 曾认为自己有这个能力 这实在有些天真,但我的确有这个志愿 我也发现 教授们所说的并不全是错的 实际上,我回到底特律后发现 我的公司 以及行业中的其它公司 对我的环保倾向并不欢迎 你可以想象到 我碰到了一些非常有趣的对话 福特公司里的一些人 认为这些保护环境的废话 应被禁止 我也应当停止 与“环保狂人”来往 我被认为是一名激进分子 我永远忘不了那一天我被某管理高层叫到办公室 被要求停止 与任何已知或疑似环保人士为伍 (众人笑) 当然,我并没有理会 我还是坚持倡导保护环境 这就是我们今天 所谈论的可持续性 现在,我的观点从饱受非议 变成多少为众人所接受 我是说,我认为行业中大多数人 都明白我们必须采取行动了
And the good news is today we are tackling the big issues, of cars and the environment -- not only at Ford, but really as an industry. We're pushing fuel efficiency to new heights. And with new technology, we're reducing -- and I believe, someday we'll eliminate -- CO2 emissions. We're starting to sell electric cars, which is great. We're developing alternative powertrains that are going to make cars affordable in every sense of the word -- economically, socially and environmentally. And actually, although we've got a long way to go and a lot of work to do, I can see the day where my two great passions -- cars and the environment -- actually come into harmony.
好消息是,我们现正在设法解决 关于汽车与环境的大问题-- 不仅是福特,全行业都是如此 我们将燃料效能推向新的高度 通过使用新技术 我们正在减少--我相信,总有一天,能够消灭-- 二氧化碳尾气 我们开始销售电动汽车,这非常好 同时开发新动力传送器 让所有车 变得经济实惠 无论从经济上,社会上 还是环境上来说 事实上,尽管我们的工作 任重道远 我依然能够预见到我热衷的两项事业-- 汽车和环境-- 和谐发展的一天
But unfortunately, as we're on our way to solving one monstrous problem -- and as I said, we're not there yet; we've got a lot of work to do, but I can see where we will -- but even as we're in the process of doing that, another huge problem is looming, and people aren't noticing. And that is the freedom of mobility that my great grandfather brought to people is now being threatened, just as the environment is. The problem, put in its simplest terms, is one of mathematics. Today there are approximately 6.8 billion people in the world, and within our lifetime, that number's going to grow to about nine billion. And at that population level, our planet will be dealing with the limits of growth. And with that growth comes some severe practical problems, one of which is our transportation system simply won't be able to deal with it.
可惜的是 尽管我们正在解决这一个重大的问题-- 正如我所说的,我们还有很长的路要走 但我能预见到我们会达到-- 即使我们正在为此努力 另一个重大的问题开始威胁我们 而人们还没有注意到 我曾祖父 为世人带来的出行自由 正如环境一样受到威胁 这个问题,用最简单的方式表述 就是一个数学问题 今天全球人口大约68亿 在我们有生之年,这个数字将上升 至90亿 在这样的人口水平下 我们的地球将面临发展的限制 这样的人口增长 将导致一些严重的现实问题 其中一个问题就是 交通系统无法承受人口负重
When we look at the population growth in terms of cars, it becomes even clearer. Today there are about 800 million cars on the road worldwide. But with more people and greater prosperity around the world, that number's going to grow to between two and four billion cars by mid century. And this is going to create the kind of global gridlock that the world has never seen before. Now think about the impact that this is going to have on our daily lives. Today the average American spends about a week a year stuck in traffic jams, and that's a huge waste of time and resources. But that's nothing compared to what's going on in the nations that are growing the fastest. Today the average driver in Beijing has a five-hour commute. And last summer -- many of you probably saw this -- there was a hundred-mile traffic jam that took 11 days to clear in China. In the decades to come, 75 percent of the world's population will live in cities, and 50 of those cities will be of 10 million people or more.
如果我们把人口增长和汽车联系起来看 情况就更明了了 全球目前大约有8亿辆车行驶在路上 全球人口越多 发展得越兴盛 到了本世纪中叶 这个数字将增长至20亿至40亿辆车 这将造成空前的 全球交通大拥堵 想象一下 这对我们的日常生活会有什么影响 现今平均每个美国人 每年有将近一周的时间 花在了堵车上 这浪费了大量的时间和资源 这还不算什么 那些发展最快的国家 情况比这严重得多 在北京,每个司机每天 花在路上的平均时间是五个小时 去年夏天--你们很多人可以已经看到这消息-- 中国有一次花了11天 才疏通了长达100英里的交通大拥堵 在未来的几十年后 全球75%的人口 将生活在城市里 其中的50多个城市 人口将超过一亿人
So you can see the size of the issue that we're facing. When you factor in population growth, it's clear that the mobility model that we have today simply will not work tomorrow. Frankly, four billion clean cars on the road are still four billion cars, and a traffic jam with no emissions is still a traffic jam. So, if we make no changes today, what does tomorrow look like? Well I think you probably already have the picture. Traffic jams are just a symptom of this challenge, and they're really very, very inconvenient, but that's all they are. But the bigger issue is that global gridlock is going to stifle economic growth and our ability to deliver food and health care, particularly to people that live in city centers. And our quality of life is going to be severely compromised. So what's going to solve this?
你们可以看到我们面临问题有多大了 如果你把人口问题考虑进去 就不难看到,我们今天拥有的移动模式 在将来是行不通的 很显然,四十亿辆环保车行驶在路上 仍旧是四十亿辆车啊 没有废气的交通拥堵 仍旧是交通拥堵啊 如果我们今天不做出改变 明天怎么办? 我想你们可能已经心里有数了 交通拥堵只是这个挑战的一个症状 堵车是非常不方便的 堵车就会带来不便 而更大的问题是 全球的交通拥堵 将严重威胁经济增长 扼杀我们运输食物 提供医疗服务的能力 尤其是向生活在城市中心的人们 我们的生活质量将被大打折扣 有什么解决方法呢?
Well the answer isn't going to be more of the same. My great grandfather once said before he invented the Model T, "If I had asked people then what they wanted, they would have answered, 'We want faster horses.'" So the answer to more cars is simply not to have more roads. When America began moving west, we didn't add more wagon trains, we built railroads. And to connect our country after World War II, we didn't build more two-lane highways, we built the interstate highway system. Today we need that same leap in thinking for us to create a viable future. We are going to build smart cars, but we also need to build smart roads, smart parking, smart public transportation systems and more. We don't want to waste our time sitting in traffic, sitting at tollbooths or looking for parking spots. We need an integrated system that uses real time data to optimize personal mobility on a massive scale without hassle or compromises for travelers. And frankly, that's the kind of system that's going to make the future of personal mobility sustainable.
答案可能不尽相同 在发明T型车之前 我曾祖父曾说 “如果我问当时的人们它们想要什么 他们会回答 ‘我们想要跑得更快的马’” 所以,更多车辆的问题 不能通过修更多的路来解决 当美国开始西进运动时 我们并没有添置更多的大篷车 而是建了铁路 在二战后,为了连通国家交通网 我们并没有建双向高速公路 而是建了州际高速公路体系 现在我们需要在思想上实现相同的跳跃 以创造一个坚实的未来 我们要制造智能汽车 我们也要制造 智能道路,智能停车位 智能公共运输系统等等 我们不想把时间浪费在 堵车,收费站 或寻找停车位上 我们需要一个综合体系 采用实时数据 优化大范围的个人移动性 保证出行者行动不受影响不打折口 显然,这样的体系 才能够保证未来个人行动自由的可持续性
Now the good news is some of this work has already begun in different parts of the world. The city of Masdar in Abu Dhabi uses driverless electric vehicles that can communicate with one another, and they go underneath the city streets. And up above, you've got a series of pedestrian walkways. On New York City's 34th Street, gridlock will soon be replaced with a connected system of vehicle-specific corridors. Pedestrian zones and dedicated traffic lanes are going to be created, and all of this will cut down the average rush hour commute to get across town in New York from about an hour today at rush hour to about 20 minutes. Now if you look at Hong Kong, they have a very interesting system called Octopus there. It's a system that really ties together all the transportation assets into a single payment system. So parking garages, buses, trains, they all operate within the same system. Now shared car services are also springing up around the world, and these efforts, I think, are great. They're relieving congestion, and they're frankly starting to save some fuel.
值得高兴的是,这项工作在世界的不同地方 已经开工了 阿布扎比市的玛斯达尔 采用能够相互沟通的 无人驾驶电动车 它们在城市街道的地下行动 而在地上是一系列人行道 纽约市的34号大街 将堵车取而代之的 是一个四通八达的 车辆专用通道系统 人行区和专用交通通道将被建起 这一切都将把纽约市 交通拥堵高峰期平均时间 从现在的1个小时 缩短到20分钟 你们看香港 他们有一套有意思的系统,被称为“八达通” 这个系统 将所有交通资产 统一到一个单独的支付系统 这样,停车场,公车,火车 都在同一个系统下运行 现在拼车服务 在全世界也遍地开花了 我认为,这些行动都非常好 它们缓解了交通拥堵 当然也帮助节省了一些燃油
These are all really good ideas that will move us forward. But what really inspires me is what's going to be possible when our cars can begin talking to each other. Very soon, the same systems that we use today to bring music and entertainment and GPS information into our vehicles are going to be used to create a smart vehicle network. Every morning I drive about 30 miles from my home in Ann Arbor to my office in Dearborn, Michigan. And every night I go home, my commute is a total crapshoot. And I often have to leave the freeway and look for different ways for me to try and make it home. But very soon we're going to see the days when cars are essentially talking to each other. So if the car ahead of me on I-94 hits traffic, it will immediately alert my car and tell my car to reroute itself to get me home in the best possible way. And these systems are being tested right now, and frankly they're going to be ready for prime time pretty soon.
这些都是十分棒的想法 能够推动我们的进步 而真正给我启发的是 当我们的车开始相互交谈 会是什么情况 很快,我们今天使用的 将音乐、娱乐 和GPS信息嵌入车辆的这个系统 将被用于建设 一个智能车辆网络 每天早晨我从安娜堡的家 开车30英里去到我在密歇根州迪尔伯恩的办公室 每天晚上 我回家的路途总是被堵得水泄不通 我常常不得不离开高速路 另找其它出路 才能回到家 但很快,我们就能看到 汽车相互沟通的那一天 如果在我前面的一辆车在I-94号路上遇到塞车 它就会立即通知我的车 让我的车另寻出路 这样我就能找到回家的最佳路径 这些系统都在接受测试 它们很快就会被正式投入运行
But the potential of a connected car network is almost limitless. So just imagine: one day very soon, you're going to be able to plan a trip downtown and your car will be connected to a smart parking system. So you get in your car, and as you get in your car, your car will reserve you a parking spot before you arrive -- no more driving around looking for one, which frankly is one of the biggest users of fuel in today's cars in urban areas -- is looking for parking spots. Or think about being in New York City and tracking down an intelligent cab on your smart phone so you don't have to wait in the cold to hail one. Or being at a future TED Conference and having your car talk to the calendars of everybody here and telling you all the best route to take home and when you should leave so that you can all arrive at your next destination on time. This is the kind of technology that will merge millions of individual vehicles into a single system.
车辆连接网络的潜力 几乎是无限的 试想一下 在不久的将来 你们能够在市中心计划行程 而你的车就会被接入一个智能停车系统 接着,你上了车 就在此时 你的车在你到达之前为你预定一个停车位-- 无需开着车到处找了 开车找停车位 无疑是城市车辆 耗油最多的一方面 或者试想一下在纽约市里 用智能电话定位一辆智能出租车 这样你就无需在冷风中苦苦等候了 或试想一下,你参加未来的TED会议时 你的车 把在座各位的日程表一查 挑选你们最佳的回家路径 而在离开时 你们都能够准时地到达下一个目的地 这样的科技 能够将几百万辆车 统一到一个独立的体系中
So I think it's clear we have the beginnings of a solution to this enormous problem. But as we found out with addressing CO2 issues, and also fossil fuels, there is no one silver bullet. The solution is not going to be more cars, more roads or a new rail system; it can only be found, I believe, in a global network of interconnected solutions. Now I know we can develop the technology that's going to make this work, but we've got to be willing to get out there and seek out the solutions -- whether that means vehicle sharing or public transportation or some other way we haven't even thought of yet; our overall transportation-mix and infrastructure must support all the future options.
很显然,我们已经有了 解决这个大问题的初步方案 但是在我们应对二氧化碳排放问题 和燃料问题时发现 问题的解决并不是一蹴而就的 解决方案并不是 使用更多的汽车,建设更多道路或新的铁路系统; 解决问题的关键,我认为 在这样一个全球网络中 解决方案都互相关联 我知道我们能够研发出这样的技术 使得这一切成为现实 我们也愿意 去寻找解决方案-- 不论是使用拼车或公共交通 或其它我们还未想到的方法 我们的整体交通组合和基础设施 必须为未来的解决方案服务
We need our best and our brightest to start entertaining this issue. Companies, entrepreneurs, venture capitalists, they all need to understand this is a huge business opportunity, as well as an enormous social problem. And just as these groups embrace the green energy challenge -- and it's really been amazing to me to watch how much brain power, how much money and how much serious thought has, really over the last three years, just poured into the green energy field. We need that same kind of passion and energy to attack global gridlock. But we need people like all of you in this room, leading thinkers. I mean, frankly, I need all of you to think about how you can help solve this huge issue. And we need people from all walks of life; not just inventors, we need policymakers and government officials to also think about how they're going to respond to this challenge.
我们需要最优秀、最有智慧的成员 来解决这个问题 公司,企业家,风险资本家 他们都必须明白 这是一项巨大的商机 同时也是一个巨大的社会问题 正当这些人群 接受绿色能源的挑战之际-- 我感到非常惊喜 能看到如此多的脑力,资金 和认真的想法 在过去三年里 被投入到绿色能源领域中 我们需要以同样的热情和精力 来迎战全球交通拥堵 我们需要像在座各位一样的人们 思想领导者们 显然,我需要你们所有人 思考 你能够如何解决这个艰巨的问题 我们需要各行各业的人们 而不只是投资者,我们需要决策者 政府官员 一同来思考他们如何对这一挑战做出回应
This isn't going to be solved by any one person or one group. It's going to really require a national energy policy, frankly for each country, because the solutions in each country are going to be different based upon income levels, traffic jams and also how integrated the systems already are. But we need to get going, and we need to get going today. And we must have an infrastructure that's designed to support this flexible future.
这个问题不可能 由一个人或一个组织独立解决 这需要一个国家级的能源政策 每个国家都如此 因为每个国家的解决方案会 由于收入水平,交通拥堵程度 和体统的整合度的不同 而各有不同 但我们需要采取行动,今天就行动起来 我们需要设计一套基础设施 来支持 这个灵活多变的未来
You know, we've come a long way. Since the Model T, most people never traveled more than 25 miles from home in their entire lifetime. And since then, the automobile has allowed us the freedom to choose where we live, where we work, where we play and frankly when we just go out and want to move around. We don't want to regress and lose that freedom. We're on our way to solving -- and as I said earlier, I know we've got a long way to go -- the one big issue that we're all focused on that threatens it, and that's the environmental issue, but I believe we all must turn all of our effort and all of our ingenuity and determination to help now solve this notion of global gridlock. Because in doing so, we're going to preserve what we've really come to take for granted, which is the freedom to move and move very effortlessly around the world. And it frankly will enhance our quality of life if we fix this. Because, if you can envision, as I do, a future of zero emissions and freedom to move around the country and around the world like we take for granted today, that's worth the hard work today to preserve that for tomorrow.
要知道,我们已经走了很长的路程 自从T型车的问世 大多数人再也不用 花一生的时间穿越超过25英里的距离来回家 自此 汽车让我们拥有 选择在哪里生活,工作 玩乐的自由 我们想去哪就去哪 我们不想倒退,失去这份自由 我们正在想办法解决-- 我之前说过,我知道我们任重道远-- 我们所关注的对之造成威胁的那个大问题 也就是环境问题 而我认为我们必须 竭尽全力 帮助解决全球交通拥堵问题 因为只有这样 我们才能保证我们习以为常的 出行自由 让我们能够毫不费力地行遍世界 如果我们解决这个问题 很明显这能够提高我们的生活质量 因为,如果你能够像我一样预见到 零尾气排放 实现在国家,世界自由通行 我们今天并不在意 为了保证明天 今天的辛苦是值得的
I believe we're at our best when we're confronted with big issues. This is a big one, and it won't wait. So let's get started now.
我相信我们正在尽最大的努力 直面重大的问题 这是一个迫在眉睫的问题 我们现在就采取行动吧
Thank you.
谢谢大家
(Applause)
(众人鼓掌)