When trains began to shuttle people across the coutryside, many insisted they would never replace horses. Less than a century later, people repeated that same prediction about cars, telephones, radio, television, and computers. Each had their own host of detractors. Even some experts insisted they wouldn’t catch on.
當火車開始穿過鄉村運載乘客時, 許多人堅持火車永遠不會取代馬。 不到一世紀後,人們又做出了 同樣的預測,只是對象改為汽車、 電話、收音機、 電視機,和電腦。 每一項都有一票自己的抵毀者。 甚至有些專家都堅持 它們不會流行起來。 當然,我們無法精確預測 未來會是什麼樣子,
Of course, we can’t predict exactly what the future will look like or what new inventions will populate it. But time and time again, we’ve also failed to predict that the technologies of the present will change the future. And recent research has revealed a similar pattern in our individual lives: we’re unable to predict change in ourselves. Three psychologists documented our inability to predict personal change in a 2013 paper called, “The End of History Illusion.” Named after political scientist Francis Fukuyama’s prediction that liberal democracy was the final form of government, or as he called it, “the end of history,” their work highlights the way we see ourselves as finished products at any given moment.
會是未來會流行什麼新發明。 但,再三地, 我們也沒能預測到現今的科技 會改變未來。 近期的研究顯示,在我們 個人的生活中也有類似的模式: 我們無法預測我們自己的改變。 三位心理學家記錄了我們 無法預測個人改變的無能, 在 2013 年寫成一篇論文, 叫做「歷史終止錯覺」。 這個名字是來自政治科學家 法蘭西斯福山的預測, 他認為自由民主 是政府的最後一種形式, 或者,是他所謂的「歷史終止」。 這篇論文強調我們在任何時候 都會把自己視為是成品。
The researchers recruited over 7,000 participants ages 18 to 68. They asked half of these participants to report their current personality traits, values, and preferences, along with what each of those metrics had been ten years before. The other half described those features in their present selves, and predicted what they would be ten years in the future. Based on these answers, the researchers then calculated the degree of change each participant reported or predicted.
研究者招募了七千名受試者, 年齡從 18 歲到 68 歲不等。 他們請一半的受試者 陳述他們目前的個人特質、 價值觀,以及偏好, 還有上述每個項目 在十年前是什麼樣子的。 另一半人則要描述 他們目前自我的特徵, 並預測十年之後 這些特徵會變成怎樣。 根據這些答案, 研究者計算出了每位受試者 所陳述的過去改變 或所預測的未來改變程度有多高。
For every age group in the sample, they compared the predicted changes to the reported changes. So they compared the degree to which 18-year-olds thought they would change to the degree to which 28-year-olds reported they had changed. Overwhelmingly, at all ages, people’s future estimates of change came up short compared to the changes their older counterparts recalled. 20-year-olds expected to still like the same foods at 30, but 30-year-olds no longer had the same tastes. 30-year-olds predicted they’d still have the same best friend at 40, but 40-year-olds had lost touch with theirs. And 40-year-olds predicted they’d maintain the same core values that 50-year-olds had reconsidered. While older people changed less than younger people on the whole, they underestimated their capacity for change just as much. Wherever we are in life, the end of history illusion persists: we tend to think that the bulk of our personal change is behind us.
針對樣本中的每個年齡組, 他們比較了預測的未來改變 和陳述的過去改變。 他們把 18 歲受試者 認為將來會做的改變, 和 28 歲受試者陳述過去 已經發生的改變做比較。 各年齡組的結果都是一面倒, 大家對於未來改變的預測,都不及 相對他們未來年齡的那些人 所回憶的過去改變。 20 歲受試者預測他們在 30 歲時 還會喜歡同樣的食物, 但 30 歲受試者的口味 已經和以前不同。 30 歲受試者預測他們到 40 歲時 最好的朋友仍然不會變, 但 40 歲受試者已經 和他們最好的朋友失聯了。 40 歲受試者預測他們將來 會保有相同的核心價值觀, 但 50 歲受試者已重新思考過 他們的核心價值觀。 雖然整體來說,年長者的改變 沒有年輕人來得多, 但他們同樣都會低估了 他們改變的能力。 不論我們在人生的哪個階段, 歷史終止錯覺都會一直存在: 我們傾向會認為我們已經 經歷過了個人的重大改變。
One consequence of this thinking is that we’re inclined to overinvest in future choices based on present preferences. On average, people are willing to pay about 60% more to see their current favorite musician ten years in the future than they’d currently pay to see their favorite musician from ten years ago. While the stakes involved in concert-going are low, we’re susceptible to similar miscalculations in more serious commitments, like homes, partners, and jobs. At the same time, there’s no real way to predict what our preferences will be in the future. Without the end of history Illusion, it would be difficult to make any long-term plans.
這種想法的後果就是 我們會想要依據目前的偏好, 對未來的選擇做過度的投資。 平均說來,一般人 願意花多少錢去聽 他們目前最愛的音樂家 未來十年後的音樂, 以及多少錢去聽十年前的音樂會, 一般來說,前者高出 60%。 雖然去聽音樂會 所涉及的利害關係很低, 但我們在做更重要的承諾時, 也會受到類似的錯誤計算所影響, 包括和家、另一半, 以及工作有關的承諾。 同時,我們不可能預測 我們未來的偏好會是什麼。 若沒有歷史終止幻覺, 就很難做任何長期的計畫。
So the end of history illusion applies to our individual lives, but what about the wider world? Could we be assuming that how things are now is how they will continue to be? If so, fortunately, there are countless records to remind us that the world does change, sometimes for the better. Our own historical moment isn’t the end of history, and that can be just as much a source of comfort as a cause for concern.
所以,歷史終止錯覺會被 應用在我們個人的生活中, 但若在更廣大的世界中呢? 我們有沒有可能假設了 事物現在的樣子會一直持續下去? 如果是的話,很幸運, 有無數的記錄 提醒我們,世界會改變, 有時會變得更好。 我們自己的歷史性時刻 並不是歷史終止的時刻, 這一點,既讓人感到安慰, 也讓人感到擔心。